official Market Analysis And News by Hotforex.com

[girongancev]

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.2950. The Industrial Production in Germany rose 1.9 percent on a monthly basis in July. agen bola

[HFM]

Date : 13th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th JUNE 2016.





The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: FOMC Forecast revisions to be released Wednesday after the FOMC meeting should reveal little change in the official GDP and jobless rate estimates from the March meeting, which remain consistent across the forecast horizon with available growth and jobs data. The US economic calendar will have a few last-minute releases that may inform the Fed decision this week, but none sufficient to provide a counter-weight to the tepid May employment report that temporarily curbed the Fed’s appetite for a hike. Among them are the May retail sales report (Tuesday), which may log a healthy 0.6% gain (median 0.3%) vs 1.3% in April. Import prices are set to rise 1.0% in May, compared to a 0.2% gain in export prices. Business inventories are on tap too, expected be unchanged in April (median 0.3%) vs 0.4%. MBA mortgage market applications (Wednesday) are due, followed by an update on PPI set to rise 0.4% (median 0.3%) or -0.1% core. Empire State is seen flat for June (median -0.4) vs -9.0 in May, still not very inspiring, while industrial production may sink 0.2% in May (median unchanged) and capacity use slip to 75.2% from 75.4%. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% for both headline and core in May (Thursday) and a 1.1% y/y reading won’t rattle the Fed. Philly Fed may resurface to 2.0 in June (median 0.7%) from -1.8, while the current account narrows to -$124.6 bln in Q1 from -$125.3 bln in Q4. Jobless claims are forecast to snap back 16k to 280k, while the NAHB housing market index may tick up to 59 in June from 58. Housing starts may sink 0.2% to 1,170 (Friday).

Canada: In Canada, the April manufacturing report and May CPI release highlight this week’s calendar, which also has appearances from Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. April manufacturing, due Wednesday, is expected to reveal a 1.0% rebound in shipment values following the 0.9% drop in March. Total CPI, dueFriday, is seen expanding at a 1.7% annual pace in May following an identical 1.7% y/y gain in April. But total CPI is seen jumping 0.6% m/m in May after the 0.3% gain in April, as higher gasoline prices and depreciation of the Canadian dollar both conspire to drive the index higher relative to April. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI index is projected to expand at a 2.2% y/y pace in May, matching the 2.2% rate in April. But here too we see acceleration in the monthly growth rate, with core CPI seen expanding 0.5% m/m in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Existing home sales for May (Wednesday) and the May Teranet/National home price index (Tuesday) also feature this week. BoC Governor Poloz speaks (Wednesday) at the Yukon Chamber of Commerce, Whitehorse, YT. A press conference will follow the speech. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Friday) to the Canadian Payments Association in Calgary. There is not a press conference.

Europe: Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet again this week and Greece will hope to finally fully complete the bailout review, which would also open the way for the ECB to consider re-instating the waiver on Greek government bonds. This would allow Greek banks to participate in the central bank’s regular refinancing operations and be another step back towards normality. The events calendar also has a German 10-year Bund auction on Wednesday as well as the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday and several ECB speakers including Draghi (Friday). The overall message is likely to be the same, namely that the ECB is on hold while keeping the door open for further action if necessary. Data releases won’t change the overall outlook. There is a bunch of final May HICP numbers, with the overall Eurozone reading expected to be confirmed at -0.1% y/y (median same), and core inflation at 0.8% y/y. The ECB already had preliminary numbers at the time of the last meeting and is confident that current measures are sufficient to bring inflation back on a gradual growth path. The Eurozone also has trade numbers, BoP data and industrial production numbers for April. Production is expected to have rebounded slightly and we are looking for a marginal widening of the trade surplus, but overall data are unlikely to change expectations for a slowdown in overall GDP growth in the second quarter of the year.

United Kingdom: In the shadow of the EU vote, the week’s BoE June policy meeting and data calendar won’t carry as much significance as would usually be the case. The BoE’s MPC (announcing Thursday) will more than likely leave the repo rate at 0.5% by unanimous vote, and we don’t expect much deviation in the tone of the minutes to those of last month, nor last month’s edition of the quarterly Inflation Report. UK inflation data (Tuesday) has us expecting a 0.4% y/y reading on headline CPI (median same), up on April’s 0.3% y/y. This would still be below the 0.5% y/y cycle peak that was seen in March. Labour data covering April and May are also up (Wednesday), where we expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1% (median same). Retail sales for May (Thursday) should show a rebound from April weakness. We expect a 3.7% y/y gain versus the -0.9% figure seen in April.

China: In China, May industrial production (today) came in unchanged compared to the 6.0% y/y April result. May retail sales (today) dipped to 10.0% y/y from 10.1% y/y in April. Foreign direct investment (today) dropped to 3.8% y/y clip in May versus 4.8% previously. Money supply figures are expected during the week.

Japan: Japan kicked the week off with the June MoF business outlook survey (BSI Manufacturing Index), which dropped to -11.1, versus the -7.9 reading seen in May. Revised April industrial production (Tuesday) is seen steady at 3.8% y/y. The BoJ is expected to keep policy unchanged at its meeting which culminates on (Thursday). Improved incoming domestic data, including upgraded Q1 GDP, stronger production, and a delay in the increase in the national sales tax proposed for April 2017 should be enough to keep the Bank on hold for now, while Governor Kuroda will likely want to further assess the impact of negative interest rates before easing further. The Q2 Tankan report, due June 30, may give him the data he needs on that front.

Australia: In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle delivers remarks (Tuesday) at the ASIFMA-GFMA Market Liquidity Conference 2016 in Hong Kong. His appearance will be via video link. Deputy Governor Lowe delivers a speech (Thursday) at the Economic Society of Australia (QLD) Business Lunch in Brisbane. Economic data features May employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 10.6k rise in April. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.7% in May, matching April.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 14th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2016.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets remain under pressure, with most Asian markets down and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also heading south. Risk aversion continues to dominate amid heightened uncertainty ahead of this week’s round of central bank meetings and next week’s Brexit referendum. The focus has shifted to the wider fallout for the EU and Eurozone spreads are widening sharply amid concerns that a U.K. exit from the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The European calendar focuses on inflation data, with U.K. CPI expected to nudge higher to 0.4% y/y from 0.3% y/y in April. Italy and Spain release final May inflation data, and the Eurozone has production numbers for April.

Brexit Polls push a volatile sterling: Three polls yesterday had the Leave camp ahead and the UK largest circulation newspaper (The Sun) openly came out in favour of a Brexit vote. The FT poll of polls now has Remain on 45% Leave on 47% and Undecided at 9%. Seven of the last ten polls have given the Leave camp the lead. UK government gilts have surged on the uncertainty as sterling falls. GBPUSD is trading below 1.4160, GBPJPY is below 150.00 and EURGBP has rallied as high as 0.7880.

US VIX equity volatility surged sharply since Friday considering the relatively mild drops in the S&P500 since then, indicative of heightened sensitivity to downside price action in stocks. The VIX had traded below 13.0 earlier in June to 2-month lows, but surged above 15.0 Friday to clear 17.0. Monday it gapped out above 18.0 to open at 18.24 and closed at the day high of 20.97 (up 23.14% on the day). Certainly it appears that hedging against downside risks via the VIX has proven popular with several major macro fund managers talking down stocks and up gold. That may be especially true after the June peak at 2,120 stopped just shy of all-time highs of 2,134 before touching a low of 2,085 today, while the 200-day m.a. is well south at 2,015. Brexit risks near-term, domestic terror acts and polarizing November elections further out, not to mention global growth risks, remain gusty headwinds for stock investors.

Fed Policy Outlook: No change in policy is expected from the FOMC two day meeting which starts later today, and the market has largely priced out much chance for a hike this year, according to Fed funds futures, which are also benefiting from flight to quality trades. The soft jobs report and lack of a hint from Yellen of an imminent policy shift indicate the FOMC will remain sidelined this week. Brexit uncertainties and fears of financial market instability should the U.K. vote for Brexit next week, along with weaker growth out of Japan and Asia have seen the futures push out a possible tightening until early 2017. The implied February future suggests a 50-50 bet on a 25 bp hike. We’re still expecting two hikes, with the FOMC acknowledging as much in its forecasts on Wednesday, though we note the Fed is running out of time if it wants to effect such action at a regularly slated meeting, since after Wednesday, there will be only four more, with the November 1, 2 dates seemingly out of the running given the elections.


Main Macro Events Today

• UK CPI Inflation in Britain is expected to have sped up slightly in May, but overall price pressures remain significantly subdued as both external and internal factors continue to weigh on consumer price growth. The annual rate of UK inflation is expected to have picked up to 0.4% in May, after slipping to 0.3% a month before, mostly on the back of an earlier Easter this year compared with the previous year. Core inflation, which strips out volatile prices of food and energy, is also seen edging up to 1.3% from 1.2% measured a month before.

• US Retail Sales US May retail sales data is out today should reveal a 0.6% (median 0.3%) headline increase with a 0.6% (median 0.3%) increase for the ex-autos figure as well. This follows April figures of 1.3% for the headline and 0.8% for ex-autos. The increase in May vehicle sales and our expectations for further gains in gasoline prices should help lift the headline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 15th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2016.


FX News Today

Stock markets started to stabilise overnight, as the Yen weakened and helped exporters to bounce back ahead of today’s Fed decision. The BoJ is due to follow and some speculation of further central bank action has also underpinned the first improvement in Topix and Nikkei in five days. Chinese reversed early losses and jumped higher, sparking speculation that state-backed funds may be supporting the market, after MSCI Inc. refused to add China’s domestic equities to the benchmarks indexes. U.S. stock futures are still in the red ahead of the Fed, but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher. Oil prices are down, with the front end Nymex future trading below USD 48 per barrel. Nervousness remains ahead of the round of central bank decisions this week and next week’s Brexit referendum. The events will likely overshadow the data calendar once again, which has U.K. labour market data and European trade numbers.

FOMC began its meeting and announces its policy stance this afternoon at 14:00 ET. While a hike today is off the table, the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward. Outside of the weak May employment report, most pieces of data have been consistent with GDP growth of 2.6% this quarter. Price pressures have also been on the rise. And these factors support expectations that the FOMC will look to normalize further, and perhaps as soon as July, as is out view, as well as the Median estimate from last week’s Survey. The Fed’s dot plot is likely to again show 2 tightenings this year, though the median rate might be revised slightly lower. We also expect Fed Chair Yellen will be cautiously optimistic on the economy in her press conference, while still acknowledging the downside risks, as she did in her June 6 speech.

Canada Household Leverage Remains Near Record High: Canada’s household leverage remained elevated in Q1, as the ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income slipped ever so slightly to 165.3% from a record high 165.4% in Q4. The historically elevated debt to income ratio continues to highlight a prominent risk associated with the current policy setting. However, the Bank of Canada’s focus is growth and inflation, so rising leverage amid the current ultra accommodative rate environment will continue to be taken in stride by policymakers.

Atlanta Fed’sGDPNowwas lifted to 2.8% in Q2 from 2.5% previously in the wake of the gain in May retail sales: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on June 14, up from 2.5 percent on June 9. After this morning’s retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.5 percent to 3.9 percent. The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 17.”

Yesterday’s US reports revealed the expected May strength in retail sales and surprisingly large trade prices increases, though we also saw restrained business inventory gains that lowered our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.1% from 1.2%, versus the 0.8% prior reported pace. For retail sales, we saw only small prior revisions that had no net impact on our GDP forecasts, with expected May gains for gasoline station and auto dealer sales. For trade prices, we saw big increases in oil import and food export prices, but also big core price gains, and with boosts in prior import price gains that trimmed the skewing of recent trade price strength toward exports.

Main Macro Events Today

• Canada Manufacturing: We expect manufacturing shipments, due Wednesday, to grow 1.0% in April (median same at +1.0%) after the 0.9% m/m drop in March and 4.0% plunge in February. A 1.5% gain in export values after the 4.1% drop in March and 6.8% plunge in February provides a compelling reason to forecast a gain in manufacturing shipment values during April.

• US NY Fed “Empire State” Index: June producer sentiment kicks off with the release of the Empire State Index on Wednesday. We expect the headline to climb to -1.0 (median -4.0) after a tumble to -9.0 in May from 9.6 in April. Producer sentiment as settled back near recent lows with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures hitting 49 again in May after a spike to 53 in March and subsequent dip to 51 in April.

• US Industrial Production: May industrial production is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.2% (median unchanged) headline decline following a 0.7% increase in April and a 0.9% decrease in March. Capacity utilization should fall to 75.2% (median 75.3%) from 75.4% in April. Factory and mining employment both declined in the May employment report which could indicate downside risk for the release.

• US FOMC: We expect no rate hike today but the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward.

• Bank of Canada: Governor Poloz speech.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[pradegxs]

Should we bet on Dollar decline today ahead of FOMC decision? What guys do you think?

[HFM]

Date : 16th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th June 2016.


FX News Today

European Outlook: The recovery in stock markets didn’t last long and markets headed south again in Asia overnight, with U.S. and U.K. stock futures also under pressure. Fed and BoJ kept policy on hold and while this was largely expected, there were some lingering hopes that at least the BoJ would add further stimulus but with the statement maybe a tad less dovish than expected, the Yen strengthened and Japanese equities sold off, with the Nikkei down -2.98%. The Hang Seng is down -2.20%. The focus now shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today. Again no changes are expected, but with Brexit risks looming the tone of the statements will be watched carefully. Event risks continue to overshadow data releases, which today include U.K. retail sales and the final reading of Eurozone May HICP numbers.

The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged: The Fed again did not define a “balance of risks” and didn’t give any clear indication of the timing of the next hike, though it still expects two more this year. “Growth in economic activity appears to have picked up,” said the statement, but the “pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed.” This contradiction was the opposite in the previous statement, though it also noted that household spending has improved and the drag from net exports has lessened, while business investment has been soft. The Fed again indicated that inflation is running below target. There was no dissent this time from Esther George, (long time hawk), compounding the more dovish interpretation. Likewise, the dot-plot was significantly lowered, growth outlook trimmed and inflation outlook tweaked just slightly higher despite the rebound in energy prices. FOMC forecast revisions released with the policy statement show surprisingly large downward revisions in the official GDP forecasts for 2016, followed by downward bumps across the forecast horizon, leaving a distribution of 2016 Fed estimates that lie almost entirely below our own 2.2% forecast.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board continues to gauge the economic impact of their unpopular negative-rate policy ahead of an election next month. With the uncertain outlook for global markets also giving reason for pause, the BOJ held its key interest rate at minus 0.1 percent and kept the annual target for expanding the monetary base at 80 trillion yen ($764 billion). Dollar and GBP weakness and yen strength continued following the announcement USDJPY traded as low at 104.04 and GBPJPY as low as the 147.30.

US data reports: Revealed a welcome June Empire State bounce to 6.0 that reversed the May plunge to -9.0, though industrial production underperformed in May with a 0.4% drop led by a 7.0% drop in the vehicle assembly rate to an 11.4 mln clip. The vehicle sector pullback explains May weakness in other payroll and sentiment data, and a likely vehicle sector rebound into the shifting summer retooling period should support a June factory sector bounce as seen with Empire State. We also saw a 0.4% May PPI rise with a firm 0.3% core price increase, as US inflation measures continue to document both a rebound in commodity prices and a firm 2016 core price path.



Main Macro Events Today

• Swiss National Bank The official view from SNB remains that prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability. Rates are currently -0.75% and no change is expected. Prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability. The SNB’s baseline scenario assumes that economic conditions for the Swiss banking sector improve. Economic growth picks up moderately in the euro area, but unemployment remains high in many member states. In the US, growth remains robust. Growth in China slows further and some major emerging markets remain in recession. In Switzerland, the recovery continues and unemployment begins to decline slowly after peaking in the second half of 2016.

• UK Interest Rate decision No change expected UK rates with a week to the UK Referendum on membership of the EU. CPI has been under pressure and there is a very low probability of interest rate hikes before 1Q 2017. The press conference is always of interest.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[tradesprint]

I was bit confused about the brexit issue however i have got email from hotforex regarding their improved marginal requirements and leverage etc, thanks to hotforex for updating their clients but i have decided not to trade till this session is over.

[HFM]

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

• June 27, 2016
• 

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The narrative turns to the fallout from Brexit in terms of the markets, central banks, and global politics into the second half of the year. The importance of the June jobs has also significantly diminished, though nonfarm payrolls are expected to bounce 195k, making the weakness in the prior two months look like anomalies. The U.S. calendar this week is mercifully tame after all the pandemonium on Friday, starting with the advanced trade report (Monday), the deficit expected to widen to -$59.8 bln for May vs -$57.5 bln year-ago. The highlight will be Q1 GDP (Tuesday), the third edition seen revised up to 1.2% from 0.8% previously. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices are also on tap, along with consumer confidence, seen rising to 93.5 in June vs 92.6, and the Richmond Fed index. The MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) could show some sensitivity relative to the plunge in rates Friday. Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% in May vs 0.4%, while spending may be up 0.3% vs 1.0%; core PCE prices rising just 0.1%. Initial jobless claims should rebound 19k to 278k for the June 25 week (Thursday), after a similar plunge the week prior, while Chicago PMI is set to improve to 51.0 in June from 49.3. ISM may ease to 51.0 in June vs 51.3 in May as manufacturing remains sluggish (Friday), while May construction spending may rebound 0.7% from a -1.8% April deficit. Vehicle sales punctuate the week.

Fedspeak, Chair Yellen speaks on Wednesday from Portugal. Three other Fedspeakers are scheduled over the week, including centrist Fed governor Powell who speaks on Tuesday from Chicago. St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard and Cleveland Fed hawk Mester speaks Friday from London.

Canada: All of the domestic action takes place on Thursday, when April GDP and May IPPI will be released. Markets are closed Friday for the Canada Day holiday. We expect April GDP to rise 0.1% m/m following the 0.2% drop in March. The widely anticipated plunge in May GDP looms over all the April reports. We see a 0.5% drop in May GDP, driven by the wildfire related shutdown in oil sands production. Real GDP is penciled in for a 1.0% drop in Q2, followed by a 4.0% gain in Q3. The IPPI is seen rising 0.3% m/m in May after the 0.5% drop in April. The RMPI is expected to jump 5.0% m/m in May as crude oil prices saw a strong gain, following the 0.7% increase in April. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: As markets start to come to terms with the immediate fallout of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU, politicians and officials are trying to figure out a road-map for a divorce that will not only be costly for both sides, but also very difficult in practical terms. The longer the crisis drags on, the more likely further policy action from the ECB will be needed, especially as the Brexit vote also rekindled Eurozone break up fears and sparked a renewed sharp widening of spreads. What is clear is that forecasts for both growth and inflation will have to be rewritten now and that will meandata releases this week are already outdated. On the slate are preliminary June inflation reports from Germany, France and Spain, which are all expected to show a slight uptick in headline rates. The German HICP is

expected to rise to 0.2% y/y from 0.0% y/y in May. The French HICP rate is seen increasing to 0.3% y/y from 0.1% y/y and together these should lift the overall Eurozone rate to 0.0% y/y from -0.1% y/y and thus out of negative territory for the first time since January. Economic Confidence indicator will be outdated even before it is released; we are looking for an unchanged reading of 104.7.

UK: Four things to know: 1, the UK will remain a paid-up member of the EU for at least another couple of years; 2, there is a possibility that the UK will lose Scotland; 3, uncertainty will abound for the foreseeable; 4, the UK will more than likely lose its triple A credit rating.

Overall, this historical-watershed period will not good be for business and investment decision making. We look for sterling to remain pressured, seeing potential for 1.2000 versus the dollar and at least another 10% decline in trade-weighted terms. UK stocks are likely to be susceptible to periodic crashes in the weeks ahead, particularly those of the more domestically-focused businesses.

China: June PMIs headline at the end of the week. The Caixin/Markit index (Friday) is expected to dip to 49.0 after edging up to 49.2 in May from April’s 48.9. It’s been in contractionary over the past three months and will add to the worrisome tone if it falters deeper into negative territory. The official CFLP is seen slipping to 50.0 from 50.1 in April and May and has been on a decidedly slowing growth path since mid-2011. The non-manufacturing PMI report is also on tap.

Japan: May retail sales (Wednesday). The pace of contraction for large retailers is expected to slow to -0.5% y/y from -1.0%, while overall sales are seen worsening to -2.0% y/y from a revised -0.9% overall. May industrial production (Thursday) is seen rebounding 1.0% m/m from -3.3% previously, while May housing starts (Thursday) are penciled in with a 5.0% m/m increase after jumping 9.0% previously. May construction orders are also due (Thursday). The remainder of the calendar comes onFriday, beginning with CPI figures. June Tokyo overall CPI is seen steady at -0.5% y/y, and unchanged at -0.5% on a core basis. May national CPI is expected to tick down further to -0.4% y/y from -0.3% for both headline and core readings. May unemployment should be unchanged at 3.2%. The job offers/seekers ratio is penciled in at an unchanged 1.34. May personal income is expected to contract at a -0.5% y/y clip from the prior 1.0% gain, while May PCE is forecast to fall 2.0% y/y from -0.4% in April. The June Tankan report is predicted to slip to 5 from 6 for large manufacturers, and to 20 from 22 for large non-manufacturers. June consumer confidence is seen weakening to 40.5 from 40.9. June auto sales are also on deck. Data in line with our estimates would add to the general gloom and worries over growth, especially in the aftermath of Brexit.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia schedule is empty of speakers or events. The next Bank event is the July 5th meeting, where we expect no change in the 1.75% setting for the cash rate. The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in June, as had been widely anticipated. Recall that the central bank unexpectedly cut rates in May to 1.75% from 2.00% following an unanticipated drop in Q1 inflation. Economic data is in short supply this week, with just the May HIA new home price index (Wednesday) and May private sector credit (Thursday) on the docket.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 30th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th June 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery continues as the dust settles over the Brexit shock. There hasn’t been any dramatic central bank action so far and we agree with the ECB that this wasn’t a Lehman moment, but it is clear that at the very least monetary policy will and hopes that at least BoE and BoJ will add further stimulus continue to underpin the recovery on global stock markets. Asian stock markets moved broadly higher overnight and U.K. futures are also up, and with Bund futures already heading south in after hour trade yesterday, core European yields are likely to pick up at least in early trade. The U.K. continues to deal with the domestic fallout of the referendum result but data releases may start to move back into focus more amid a busy calendar that includes preliminary EMU HICP, German labour market data, French consumer spending, the Swiss KOF leading indicator and the final reading of U.K. Q1 GDP. The ECB releases the minutes of the last meeting.

US Bank stress tests: Fed reported 30 of 33 CCAR banks passed without conditions. Deutsche Bank and Santander failed once again, as they did in 2015 (Santander also failed in 2014), due to “broad and substantial weaknesses around their capital planning processes.” Morgan Stanley only passed conditionally and will have to resubmit its plan by the end of the year, or else fail. Also, State Street’s and BONY Mellon’s Tier 1 leverage results were only modestly above the 4.0% minimum standard, at a 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively. BMO’s 4.9% result was also rather tenuous, while its 6.4% Tier 1 capital ratio was only marginally above the 6.0% required. The Fed said capital planning at most banks strengthened versus last year, though many banks reportedly fell short of expectations of adequately identifying risk and establishing internal controls. Meanwhile, a number of banks have already announced plans to boost dividends and buyback shares.

Constancio: ECB must “wait a little bit” on any action. The central bank’s vice president said the the ECB still has monetary policy instruments, but seemed to advocate caution for now, even though he stressed that his comments aren’t mean as recommendations, which leaves the final decision to the wider council. Constancio praised the impact of the ECB’s action so far, while adding that the Eurozone no problems in liquidity and that “Greenspan” was wrong” to say Brexit is another Lehman moment, although he warned that there is the risk that banks could resume deleveraging. More indications that the central bank is essentially sticking to its wait and see stance for now.

Atlanta Fed’s Q2 GDPNow estimate was raised to 2.7% in the latest incarnation from 2.6% previously after the personal income report earlier as follows: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.7 percent on June 29, up from 2.6 percent on June 24. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the second-quarter change in net exports in 2009 dollars from $14 billion to $11 billion after Monday’s advance report on international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau.



Main Macro Events Today

• EMU HICP Preliminary June HICP is expected to rise to 0.0% y/y from -0.1% y/y in the previous month, finally lifting the Eurozone’s headline rate out of recession and with the risk to the upside after the clear uptick in German and Spanish HICP rates yesterday. Base effects from oil prices are giving a helping hand, but while the data will likely back the ECB’s wait and see stance, it will be the Brexit fallout that will be decisive for the ECB’s future rate path at the moment. For now central bankers are sitting tight while keeping a close eye on markets, but as the dust settles the ECB may be able to afford to continue to sit on its hands, even though it is clear that in the new European world monetary policy will remain accommodative for longer than previously expected.

• Canada GDP We expect April GDP, to rise 0.1% m/m following the 0.2% drop in March. While a return to growth will be welcome news, the widely anticipated plunge in May GDP looms over all the April reports. We see a 0.5% drop in May GDP, driven by the wildfire related shutdown in oil sands production. Real GDP is penciled in for a 1.0% drop in Q2, followed by a 4.0% gain in Q3. The BoC has flagged the projected volatility over Q2 and Q3, while maintaining optimism that growth for the year will be close to what they projected in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 4th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th JULY 2016.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD



The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: US stock and bond markets are closed today for the independence celebrations. There are only two items of note on the abbreviated week’s calendar, the June jobs report (Friday) and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). But with the much changed landscape following Brexit, and the Fed sidelined for the foreseeable future, there may be limited impact from these reports. The jobs report will be important, however, as we look to gauge whether the weakness in April and May data was more an anomaly or a new trend. The FOMC minutes to the June 14, 15 policy meeting will be of lesser value since the discussions will seem rather irrelevant after the surprise Brexit vote. Other data reports this week include the June ISM non-manufacturing index (Wednesday), May factory orders (Tuesday), May trade (Wednesday), and June ADP payrolls (Thursday). The services ISM is expected to bounce back to 53.5 after slipping 2.8 points to 52.9 in May. Such a rebound would help alleviate worries over general economic slowdown. Factory orders are forecast falling 0.7% given the 2.2% drop already reported in durable orders. The May trade deficit is seen widening to -$40.0 bln, after expanding to -$37.4 bln in April, with imports climbing another 1.3% after the 2.1% April jump, while exports should inch up 0.1% after a 1.5% gain previously. The ADP report, which will set the stage for the BLS jobs report, is expected to post a 165k private payroll increase.

Canada: Slate of economic data in Canada is heavy this week. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (today) is expected to reveal divergent moves in sentiment among industries. The impact of the Alberta wildfires and production shutdown should weigh heavily on oil industry sentiment. However, the outlook for the rest of the economy should see further modest improvement. The trade report (Wednesday) is seen revealing a slight unwinding of the trade deficit to -A$2.8 bln from -A$2.9 bln in April. Exports are seen falling 3.0% in May, while imports suffer a similar sized decline to leave the deficit little changed. But the risk is to the downside for both the May deficit and the size of the export pull-back. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to improve 1.0% in value terms during May after the 0.3% dip in April. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is seen improving to 51.0 in June from 49.4 in May. Finally, the employment report (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k jobs gain alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.0% from 6.9% in May.

Europe: the EMU June Services PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 52.8. The manufacturing reading was revised up, which leaves room for an upward revision to the composite, but while survey data confirmed that the economic recovery gathered pace again at the end of Q2, Markit said with the release of the manufacturing number that responses were gathered ahead of the Brexit result, so that they don’t capture the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU. German manufacturing orders (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday) data for May will be even more out of date in light of the recent events. Even if there are sizeable large- ticket items in the orders number that should underpin industrial production going ahead, the risk is that the Brexit referendum will lead to cancellations as investment projects are being put on hold until the future relationship between the rest of the EU and the U.K. is more clear. For what it’s worth, we are looking for a rebound in manufacturing orders of 0.8% m/m (med same), after the -2.0% m/m contraction in the previous month, while production is expected to ease -0.2% m/m (median 0.0%). The data calendar also has Eurozone May retail sales (Tuesday), German trade data for May (Friday), as well as French production numbers (Friday) and EMU PPI (today), none of which will change the outlook, which currently hinges on the Brexit fallout. Events include a German 2-year sale on Wednesday, which will likely see strong demand in the current climate.

United Kingdom: Incoming data will remain largely irrelevant while the numbers continue to pre-date the Brexit vote. The timely YouGov/CEBR consumer confidence survey, which gives weekly updates, gave a taste of what may come, with its headline reading of 104.3 in the days after June 23, down from 111.9 for the first three weeks of June. There is also growing anecdotal evidence of slowing activity in the property market and the market for high ticket items, such as cars. Against this backdrop, it’s difficult to be anything by bearish of sterling, especially against the dollar, which will be natural safe haven refuge from European strife. We expect the pound to see 1.2500 against the dollar before long.

China: June Caixin services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast dipping to 51.0 from 51.2. June fixed investment is due during the week and CPI numbers on Saturday.

Japan: In Japan, the June Nikkei PMI services PMI will be reported (Tuesday). It improved to 50.4 in May from 49.3 previously. May preliminary leading and coincident indices are due (Thursday), followed by June 1st 20-day trade data (Friday). The May current account surplus (Friday) is expected to narrow to JPY 1,800.0 bln from 1,878.5 bln. June bank loan data are also due (Friday).

Australia: In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets (Tuesday) and is expected to maintain the 1.75% setting for the cash rate. The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in June, as had been widely anticipated. In May, they unexpectedly cut to 1.75% from 2.00% following an unanticipated drop in Q1 inflation. Economic data features the May trade report (Tuesday), expected to reveal a deeper -C$1.8 bln deficit in May from the -A$1.6 bln deficit in April. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen improving 0.4% in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Building approvals (Monday) are expected to fall 3.0% in May after the 3.0% gain in April. The May ANZ job ads and the May Melbourne Institute inflation index are both due Monday. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks, Wednesday, at the Thomson Reuters industry event: Examining the FX Code of Conduct (Phase One).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 11th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th JULY 2016.



The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There’s a flurry of data in the U.S. economic calendar for the second week of July (mostly on Friday) after the markets readily absorbed the rebound in June payrolls that gave the Fed a elbow room on the data front. Starting slowly, May wholesale sales (Tuesday) are forecast to rise 0.8% (median 0.5%), while inventories may rise 0.2% and JOLTS job openings for May are due. Next up, MBA mortgage applications have been on fire in the wake the drop in mortgage rates (Wednesday) and June import prices are seen rising 0.6% as export prices gain 0.3%. EIA energy inventory data last week set crude on a southerly course and will again be closely monitored. The Treasury budget should show a $23 bln surplus in June vs -$52.5 bln deficit in May. PPI for June is set to rise 0.3% (Thursday), or 0.1% core, while initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 265k. Ironically, the Fed finds itself on the sidelines after Brexit, just as data are starting to show policymakers are closing in on their goals. Price pressures are starting to heat up, with the survey medians showing CPI (all Friday) increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, for the June headline and core indexes, in line with our forecasts. Retail sales are expected to be flat, (median rising slightly by 0.1% gain) in the headline and 0.3% rise ex-auto (0.4% median). Empire State may ease to 5.0 in July (median 5.0) from 6.0, with industrial production expected to be unchanged in June (median 0.2%) vs -0.4%; capacity use seen steady at 74.9% (median 75.1%). Michigan sentiment should steady at 93.0 in July (median 93.5) vs 93.5 in June, while business inventories are forecast flat for May (median 0.1%). Fed Beige Book should reiterate modest growth in the economy, which will be the basic outline for the upcoming July 26-27 FOMC meeting. However, it won’t matter much as Brexit and the FX and economic fallout have yet to impact. The June report said activity had been increasing at a moderate pace in most of the 12 Districts, with Chicago and KC noting some slowing. There were modest gains in consumer spending, moderate growth in the service sector, manufacturing activity was mixed, and energy still weak. And though tight labor markets were reported, wages and prices were growing only modestly.

Canada: The Bank of Canada is front and center this week. We expectWednesday’sannouncement and Monetary Policy Report to reveal no change in the current 0.50% rate setting alongside a continuation of the cautiously optimistic growth and inflation outlook. There may be a bit more caution given recent market volatility following the Brexit vote and a run of disappointing data (May trade, June jobs, Q2 Business Outlook Survey). Yet we suspect Governor Poloz will maintain that Canada’s economy remains on track for an eventual return to self-sustaining growth given current very accommodative policy, an expanding U.S. economy and what should be a boost from federal fiscal stimulus. Housing starts (today) are expected to nudge higher a 190.0k unit growth rate in June from the 188.5k clip in May. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are anticipated to fall 1.0% in May after the 1.0% increase in April. The June Teranet/National Bank housing price index (Wednesday), May new home price index (Thursday) and June Existing home sales (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Data releases this week will be too backward looking to add much to the overall outlook, especially as they are mainly focusing on final Eurozone inflation data for June. German HICP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% y/y, French (Wednesday) at 0.3% y/y and overall Eurozone HICP (Friday)at 0.1% y/y. Base effects helped headline rates to move out of negative territory in June, but numbers remain very low and would not stand in the way of further easing, if Draghi sees the need. The Eurozone also has production data for May (Wednesday), which is likely to confirm that growth slowed down markedly in the second quarter.

United Kingdom: The UK data calendar is quiet this week. It won’t be until early August that we get the first official data that encompasses conditions after the June 23 referendum. Please see the calendar for further details on this week’s releases.

China: China released June CPI and PPI over the weekend, which came in at 1.9% y/y from 2.0% from the former, and -2.6% y/y from -2.8% for the latter. The soft inflation data may add to concerns over the economy’s growth pace. The June trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed to $45.0 bln from $50.0 bln in May. The balance of data comes on Friday, with a lot of focus on Q2 GDP, where growth is expected to slow to 6.5% y/y from Q1’s 6.7% outcome. June industrial production is forecast to fall to a 5.8% y/y growth pace, from 6.0% previously. June retail sales are penciled in at 9.8% y/y from 10.0% in May. Such reports could weigh on investor sentiment.

Japan: In Japan, May machine orders (Today) came down hefty 19.9% m/m after dropping 24.7% in April to the lowest level of the year (and -8.2% y/y). June PPI (Tuesday) likely edged up to -4.1% y/y from -4.2%. Revised May industrial production is on tap on (Wednesday) and is seen unchanged at a 1.0% y/y rate.

Australia: In Australia, the calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k job gain in June after the 17.9k rise in May. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.8%, up from 5.7% in May. Home loans (today) dropped by -1.0% m/m in May after the 1.4% increase in April (revised down from 1.7%). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis, delivers a speech to the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, hosted by the University of Sydney (Tuesday). Ellis participates in a panel discussion (Thursday) at the 2016 FMA Asia/Pacific Conference, Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 12th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets in Japan continued to rally, and the Yen weakened as Abe’s election victory cleared the way for more “Abenomics”. Gains in other Asian markets were more modest and while U.S. stock futures are moving higher, FTSE 100 futures are in the red, despite the fact that the BoE is expected to cut rates once again on Thursday. The U.K. may have a new Prime Minister by tomorrow evening and Theresa May, poised to take over from Cameron, could start exit talks earlier than previously thought. So far she hasn’t taken a soft approach and refused to rule out the deportation of EU citizens already working and living in the U.K., which will not go down well in the city. EU finance ministers will meet today and after the Eurogroup yesterday backed the Commission’s recommendations for fines on Spain and Portugal budget overshoots, this is likely to be approved by the Ecofin today. The issue of Italy’s plans to recapitalize Italian banks without bail-ins remains open. The data calendar has German final June inflation at the start of the session, more inflation data from Sweden and Portugal and Irish GDP numbers for Q1. Nothing that would change key central bank outlooks for now. The BoE releases the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee, which was held on June 28, that is after the referendum and may attract more attention than usual if there are more warnings on the possible fallout.

US Data Reports: The stock market got another free pass from prospects of fresh stimulus in Japan following the landslide election of Abe, as investors hoped to collect $200 in “helicopter” money, not go directly to jail or at least get some free parking near historic highs. News that Japan machinery orders plunged and former Fed chief Bernanke was paying a visit to BoJ buddies fueled that speculation and related asset rebalancing. This took some starch out of bonds, gold and the yen, while WTI crude also eased 1%, back under $45. S&P 500, hit fresh record highs at 2,143, The NASDAQ cleared 5,000, and the Dow marked a session high 18,283.

Brexit Aftermath: The uncertainty surrounding the new UK Prime Minister evaporated yesterday as Theresa May became the only candidate, following the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom. David Cameron will tender his resignation to the Queen on Wednesday after chairing his last Cabinet meeting today. Brexit means Brexit, May has said. The GBP and the FTSE both rallied yesterday with some of the uncertainty over the government, post-Brexit, now out of the way. GBPUSD currently trades significantly north of 1.3000 at 1.3074.

Fedspeak: The Fed’s Esther George welcomed the good news from Friday’s jobs report and said it shows the resilience of the economy. She said consumers are continuing to spend, while household confidence is up. However, business investment has been relatively weak, though it’s been holding up ok outside of the energy and manufacturing sectors. She added that the strong dollar and weaker global growth may hurt exports. Keeping rates too low carries risks, reminded the long-time Fed hawk (and 2016 voter), and said the current level of Fed policy is too soft, in her opinion. There are limits to what monetary policy can achieve, but it’s getting closer to achieving its goals. Core inflation has been firming and the pace of job creation has been noteworthy. But demand for middle-skilled workers has dropped sharply and the recovery has not been evenly spread across the workforce. She thinks that gradual rate increase will help the FOMC achieve its goals. Though she’s one of the more hawkish on the FOMC, her comments don’t suggest she’ll push for a rate hike as soon as the July 26, 27 FOMC meeting due to Brexit fallout, but she is likely to argue for a hike at the September 20, 21 meeting if the markets are stable and Brexit fears have diminished.

Main Macro Events Today

• BOE Governor Carney Speaks – Testifies before the Treasury Select Committee about the Bank of England Financial Stability Report. Unlikely to reveal anything particularly new ahead of Thursdays MPC meeting announcement.

• JOLTS Job Openings – This data point is a particular favourite FED Chair Mrs. Yellen so will have added interest today in particular following the strong NFP data on Friday. Last month there were 5.79m job openings posted with expectations that his month the number will be slightly lower at 5.74m.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 13th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery continued in Asia overnight, (Nikkei 225 closed up +0.84% at 16,231) but U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south, suggesting that it is starting to run out of steam. Oil prices are off highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 46 per barrel, Eased uncertainty about the U.K. as the domestic situation seems more settled and preparations for exit talks can start sooner than previously expected, coupled with hopes of further global stimulus is helping to underpin sentiment, but as GDP bounces back Gilt futures and FTSE 100 have been underperforming, even as the more domestically oriented FTSE 250 is doing better. The European data calendar as final June inflation data from France, Spain and Italy, which should hold any surprises. Eurozone production data for May meanwhile is set to show a sizeable contraction, thus confirming again that overall growth slowed down in the second quarter of the year. Events include the BoE’s credit condition survey, as the MPC starts its two day meeting, with tomorrow’s announcement expected to bring a 25 bp rate cut.

US Data Reports: U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings dropped 345k in May to 5,500k, after rising 175k to 5,845k in April (revised from 5,788k). That left the rate at 3.7% from 3.9%. Hirings also declined 49k to 5,036k, a third consecutive monthly drop (hirings have fallen in four of the five months this year). The rate was steady at 3.5%. Quitters also dipped 14k to 2,895k after the 39k decline in April to 2,909k (revised from 2,912k) and the 7k slip in March. The rate was unchanged at 2.0%. The data are old, especially in light of the recent gyrations in employment. The data seem consistent with some of the weakening trend in the job market this year, though it’s not clear if that is more a function of the economy being near full employment, or an indication of a slowing in the overall economy. Note that Yellen is a fan of the quit rate, and looks for increases in that statistic to suggest a strengthening labor market. So the declines there in recent months may be another reason for her increasingly cautious outlook.

Discount Rate Hike preferred: Six Fed banks favored a discount rate hike by 25 basis points the Fed’s discount rate minutes revealed, with the vote taking place just ahead of the last meeting where rates were held steady following the May jobs miss and Brexit anticipation. A quartet of four had already requested a hike previously, including the KC, Richmond, Cleveland and SF Feds, and they were joined by Boston and St. Louis. The rationale: “expected strengthening in economic activity and their expectations for inflation to gradually move toward the 2% objective.” This shouldn’t come as a surprise to the bond market, which is already on a bearish tear anyway.

Fedspeak: Bullard: QE gives the Fed some “ammunition” in the event of another downturn, while his new view on rates is closer to what the market is pricing, with low probability of a rate increase. On productivity, he said the poor education system was not to blame in the 1990s, nor today, which could be at its root a demographic shift as older experienced workers retire. The labor force participation rate is continuing to fall for this reason as well. He said that yield curve flattening is not a sign of slowing growth but more likely a flight to safety after the Brexit vote, said the St. Louis Fed president. Talk of further U.S. stimulus is wrong and Fed calls for a better growth (fiscal) policy have been falling on deaf ears. He forecasts continued slowing in job growth in coming months as a normal development, while the ultimate impact of Brexit on the U.S. may be close to nil. Bullard continues to align himself more closely with swings in market sentiment.



Main Macro Events Today

• US Import & Export Prices June trade price data is out today and should show import prices up 0.6% (median 0.5%) on the month while export prices grow by 0.3%. This compares to May figures which had import prices up 1.4% and export prices up 1.1%. After a long run of negative figures over the winter the rebound in oil prices is now helping to lift headlines.

• BOC Outlook We expect no change in the policy rate, with the current 0.50% setting seen as unaltered in today’s announcement. Recent economic data suggest the Bank could inject more caution in its cautiously optimistic outlook. But lofty June housing starts were a timely reminder that the Bank did highlight housing in the May announcement. A repeat of that announcement’s emphasis on strong regional divergences in housing performance would contrast with a more cautious outlook on growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the robust U.S. jobs report for June suggests growth south of the border is chugging along, supportive of the Bank’s scenario for improving domestic growth in the second half.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 14th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses continuing to benefit from stimulus hopes, while mainland China saw profit taking amid concerns that the market is overbought. Hang Seng and ASX 200 posted modest gains and U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher. Oil prices are higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 46 per barrel. The focus in Europe will be on the BoE today, which is expected to cut rates by 25 bp today along with dovish guidance, as the bank is eying the fallout from the Brexit vote. The U.K. RICS house price balance, dropped to 10 from 19 highlighting that house prices will be one are that will feel the sting. The European calendar is pretty empty otherwise.

US Data Reports: Fed Beige Book reiterated the economy grew at a “modest” pace over the last six weeks (ending July 1), in line with expectations. The report, prepared by the St Louis Fed, had a slightly more upbeat tone versus recent Beige Books and was generally positive across broad areas of the economy. Consumer spending was generally positive, as was reported in June. However, there are some signs of softening. Labor market conditions remained stable, with employment growth modestly while wage pressures remained modest to moderate. Manufacturing was mixed but generally improved. Real estate continued to strengthen. The natural resources and energy sectors continued weak, however, damping the overall outlook. Price pressures remained slight. Though a tad more optimistic than recent reports, it won’t bring the FOMC off the sidelines at the July 26, 27 policy meeting.

Fedspeak: Kaplan is optimistic on the economy, expecting growth of about 2% after the disappointing 1.1% pace from Q1. Consumer spending should be solid this year, he added. Much of the recent erosion in the labor market he attributes to demographics, with part of it cyclical too. The participation rate is likely to decline further to below 61%, which creates headwinds for GDP, and suggested the only way to bounce back is through immigration. He looks for demand and supply in the oil market to get back into balance in Q1 2017, with prices continuing to firm. He added that the FOMC is very sensitive to the strength of the dollar. Kaplan becomes an FOMC next year.

Main Macro Events Today

• BOE Rate Announcement Our view matches the strong consensus view for the Old Lady to cut the repo rate by 25bp, which would take it to a record low of 0.25%. This would be the first change in the repo rate since March 2009 and would more than likely be accompanied by dovish guidance, leaving the door open to further cuts and to a restart of the QE programme. The BoE will continue to make cash available for liquidity injections into the banking system.

• US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of July 9 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 265k (median 265k) after a big dip to 254k in the week of July 2nd. Overall, we expect claims to average 262k in July from 265k in June with nonfarm payrolls adding 180k in July after a 287k bounce in June.

• U.S. PPI June PPI is also out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline increase with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This follows stronger figures in May which had the headline up 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. June trade price data has already been released and had import prices up 0.2% for the month with export prices up 0.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 15th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly higher, with Hong Kong stocks reversing declines after Chinese data which showed better than expected new loan growth in the second quarter and a slightly better overall growth number. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are lower, however, and Bund and Gilt futures will have a chance to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. The BoE’s decision to leave rates steady for now may have been somewhat of a disappointment, but the MPC all but announced further easing for August, so there is room for a correction in yields. The European calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation for June, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.1% y/y. The headline rate is finally out of negative territory again, but still far below the ECB’s target and still leaving the central bank sufficient room to act again if necessary.

Strong Chinese Data: China’s GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, slightly better than expected, matching the 6.7% pace in Q1. Separately, retail salesgrew at a 10.6% y/y pace in June from the 10.0% clip in May. Industrial production improved to a 6.2% y/y pace in June from 6.0%. Overall, China’s growth rate stabilized in Q2, contrary to fears the economy would see a pronounced slowdown. All three key data points were ahead of expectations and has dampened expectations that further stimulus will be required. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, USDJPY spiked over 106, and AUDUSD moved up to 0.7675 before declining to 0.7630.

US Data Reports: All beat estimates with a firm round of June PPIgains and another tight initial claims reading through the July 4th holiday, hence confirming both the resilience in U.S. inflation and the tight labor market conditions signaled by the last round of payroll data with a likely July boost from this year’s diminished auto retooling effect. For PPI, we saw a 0.5% June headline rise with a 0.8% surge on the old SA basis, with a firm 0.4% core price rise. For claims, we expect a 6k drop in next week’s July BLS survey week reading back to the 248k cycle-low, following two consecutive tight readings of 254k that leave a lean 254k average thus far on the month.

Fedspeak: Esther George (Kansas City) current level of rates is too low and faster wage growth suggests the labor market is returning to normal, said the hawkish voter. That said, she will be looking at the impact of Brexit, which will be around for a while, along with the flight to quality when assessing any impact on the U.S. economy, seen likely to be modest. This should not come as a surprise, given her past dissents against accommodative policy. Atlanta Fed’s DennisLockhartendorsed a “cautious and patient” approach as appropriate given the uncertainty around Brexit and low inflation. Though “not a Lehman moment,” Brexit could weigh on business investment and create an income headwind for years to come, though he sees little immediate impact on the U.S. Lockhart still forecasts 2% U.S. growth and “very brisk” consumer spending. He sees the Fed meeting its policy objectives on inflation and employment in 2017, while already near full employment. Overall this is in line with his centrist reputation, as caution is balanced by optimism. No rush to hike, then, but perhaps he would be on board by year-end.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Retail Sales – June retail sales data is out on Friday and is expected to show that retail sales remained unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month while sales ex-autos rose 0.3% (median 0.4%). Figures for May had headline retail sales up 0.5% with ex-autos up 0.4%. There is downside risk to the release from weaker vehicle sales for the month and continued sluggish growth in chain store sales.

• US CPI – June CPI is out today and we expect to see a 0.3% headline (median 0.3%) with the core up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows May figures that had the headline up 0.2% and the core up 0.2% as well. The June PPI was up 0.5% on the month while export prices rose by 0.8% and import prices by 0.2%.

• BOE Carney Speech – Speaking in Toronto about climate change and the financial markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 2nd August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with the Shanghai Composite Index managing slight gains, but the Nikkei closed down -1.47% and Australia’s ASX also down, despite a rate cut from the RBA, which lowered the cash rate by 25 bp to 1.50%. Negative leads then for European stock markets which already closed in the red yesterday, which should give Bund futures some chance to recover some of yesterday’s losses. The European calendar is relatively quiet today, with only the U.K. construction PMI, the Swiss manufacturing PMI and Eurozone PPI numbers.

RBA Cuts rates by 25bp to a record low 1.50%: As expected and already largely priced in by the markets, AUDUSD fell but then immediately recovered, currently trading at 0.7548. “Moderate” repeated a lot in the statement, concerning Chinese growth, local domestic growth including housing and labour market. Key problem remains stubbornly low inflation and is expected to “remain so for some time”. The RBA report their quarterly forecast update on Friday.

Japan: Consumer confidence has slipped again, from 42.0 to 41.3 for July. Finance Minister Aso and BOJ Governor Kuroda will meet later today to “confirm cooperation over policy”. Also due today is PM Abe fiscal stimulus announcement. USDJPY 102.14 in anticipation.

US Market Reports: Yesterday they revealed only a small July ISM drop to a still-firm 52.6 from a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, and it’s now likely that the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys will bounce to 52 in July from 50 in both May and June, as this aggregate reclaims the 52 eight-month high in March. Yet, we also saw a surprisingly weak round of Q2 construction spending figures that trimmed our Q3 GDP growth estimate to 2.6% from 2.8%, after a likely downward bump in Q2 growth to just 1.1% from 1.2%. We saw June construction drops in every major component except home improvement, after widespread downward bumps in both April and May.

Energy Action: WTI crude gapped to $40.20 lows after breaking Friday’s three-plus month base of $40.57. The contract now stands at levels last seen on April 20, when the printed base was $39.85. Fresh selling can be expected under there, with stop loss orders noted. Technically the key 50 and 200 DMA have been broken.

Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Personal Income – June personal income data is out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline with consumption up 0.3% (median 0.3%) as well. This follows respective May figures which had income up 0.2% on the month with consumption up 0.4%. Vehicle sales plunged in June but the employment report and aggregate income measure were both stronger, lending some upside risk to the release.

• UK Construction PMI – More poor data expected a fall to 44.2 from 46.0 last time is anticipated. UK home ownership now at 35 year lows as demand out strips supply and generation rent continue to enter the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

 

Date : 4th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th August 2016.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, following the rebound on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is returning as U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains. Positive leads then for European markets head of today’s BoE statement, with the Old Lady widely expected to cut the benchmark rate by 25 bp to a record low of 0.25%. The BoE also releases its updated inflation report, while the ECB publishes the latest economic bulletin. The calendar is quiet otherwise, with only a French bond sale and unemployment data for Greece.

US Data Reports: Yesterday revealed firm July reading for the ISM-NMI and ADP that signal upside risk for Friday’s July jobs report, though we still expect a 180k nonfarm payroll gain. The ISM-NMI slipped to a still-firm 55.5 after a June pop to a 7-month high of 56.5 from a 2-year low of 52.9 in May, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.2, after popping to an 8-month high of 56.3 from a 53.1 two-year low in May. For ADP, we saw a 179k July rise that beat our 170k private payroll estimate with a 180k total payroll increase, and this signals slight upside risk given the downward bias in “as reported” ADP. Yesterday’s vehicle sales figures added to the mix with a 6.7% July surge to a solid 17.8 mln rate, despite mounting growth concerns after last week’s lean GDP data.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Evans said “perhaps 1 rate increase this year is appropriate,” in comments to reporters from Chicago. He wants to make sure that the 2% inflation target is achieved, however, and worries that the risks of not getting there during this cycle could be long-lasting (noting the experience of Japan). He does not believe the 2% goal will be hit until 2018 and thinks it’s worthwhile for the FOMC to wait. The real economy is “doing quite well, especially given all the headwinds.. and uncertainty from abroad,” he added. He projects growth in the 1.0% to 1.75% area this year (we ask, that’s “quite good?”). The natural rate of unemployment is around 4.75%. He doubts the labor market will generate much inflationary pressure. Evans is a long-time dove, but is not a voter this year.

WTI crude: Quickly bounced back to session highs of $41.39 from $39.24 lows, with the rally coming on the back of higher gasoline prices. The much larger than expected draw in RBOB gasoline inventories resulted in that contract rallying overnight. It currently trades at $41.00; the ten day losing streak finally broken.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• BOE Preview – We expect a 25 bp chop of the repo rate, which would dislodge it from 0.5%, where it’s been since March 2009, and put it at a new record low of 0.25%. Other policy measures are possible, though we and most expect the QE program to left in a dormant state, and remain at GBP 375 bln of total of assets accumulated between 2009 and 2012. The BoE has already been injecting liquidity into the banking system. BoE MPC’s Weale, who is by reputation a relatively hawkish member, last week summed up the likely sentiment among fellow Committee members, admitting that the preliminary PMI report for July was “a lot worse than I had thought.”

• BOE Press Conference – Mr Carney is normally unflappable and very firm and assertive in the 60 minute press conference. Todays could be particularly spikey if the Bank is seen not been as assertive as has been widely touted. Mr Carney has mentioned a number of times since the Brexit vote of “necessary adjustments”.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 5th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th August 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk appetite is back and the BoE revived hopes of ongoing stimulus measures not just in the U.K.. Stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia overnight, with Japanese markets the notable exception. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and while oil prices have fallen back slightly, the front end WTI future remains above USD 41 per barrel. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, as well as U.K. house price data from Halifax and Italian production data.

BOE Impact Summary: Gilt yields led a dive in sovereign European yields after the BoE over-delivered on easing measures at the conclusion of its August MPC meeting today. The FTSE 100 led consequential gains in European equity markets, while the pound tumbled by more than 1.5% versus the dollar as UK over U.S. yield differentials dove further into negative territory. UK corporate bond yields also dove sharply on news that a portion of new QE purchases will be in investment-grade corporate issues, which is a first for the BoE. The BoE said that it was responding an economic outlook which has “weakened markedly” as a consequence of the uncertainties caused by Brexit. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street cut the repo to a new record low of 0.25%, as widely expected, accompanying it with a less broadly anticipated recommencement of QE, by a further GBP 70 bln, with GBP 10 bln set aside for investment-grade corporate bonds. The BoE also surprised with the provision of GBP 100 bln for a “Term Funding Scheme,” which is a new tool for UK policy that will provide loans to banks provided that they are passed onto real-economy customers.

US Data Reports: Revealed modestly stronger than expected factory orders thanks to firmness in nondurable shipments and orders alongside minor orders and equipment tweaks in the durables data. Yet, weak inventories trimmed our Q2 GDP growth estimate to 1.0% from the 1.2% advance figure. We still peg Q3 GDP growth at 2.6%. We also saw a 3k initial claims rise to 269k in the final week of July, though we still have a lean July level overall thanks to this year’s limited auto retooling, and we still expect a 180k July nonfarm payroll rise with upside risk from tight claims, a producer sentiment updraft, a firm 179k ADP rise, a June-July vehicle assembly rebound led by a 9.6% June surge to a 12.5 mln clip before a likely further July climb, and a 6.4% July vehicle sales surge to a 17.8 mln rate.

ECB Outlook: The BoE’s comprehensive set of measures today has set the stage for a policy review from the ECB in September, when the central bank has its own updated set of staff projections. So far surveys don’t suggest that confidence has been hit by the Brexit vote, on the contrary and that in itself should already help to limit the fallout on investment and spending decisions. Still, the BoE’s move, which sent Sterling down, has clearly also increased pressure on Draghi to follow up with at least some tweaking of the QE program. Helicopter money clearly isn’t an issue for the ECB at the moment, but as supply constraints become evident in the bond buying spree, the push for a move away from the distribution of purchases according to the ECB’s capital key towards greater focus on outstanding debt, is getting stronger. Such a step would bring the ECB further away from the already weakened “no-bailout clause” enshrined in the Maastricht treaty, and likely spark additional challenges in Germany, but how long Weidmann and Schaeuble can stem the ever greater push for a mutualisation of risk and debt is anybody’s guess in this environment.

Fed Policy Outlook: The BoE’s easing has added to market expectations that the FOMC will remain sidedlined through the rest of the year. Implied Fed funds are now suggesting only about 18% risk for a tightening next month. That’s down about 10 percentage points from late July after the somewhat upbeat FOMC policy statement. Risk for a hike by year end has dipped to about 35% from 45% late last month too. The futures market, however, is also being impacted by the rally in Treasuries. The impending October 14 deadline on money market reforms, as well as the November 8 presidential election are key factors that will limit Fed action at the September 20, 21, and November 1, 2 FOMC meetings. Growth and inflation should have risen enough by the December 13, 14 policy meeting to enable the Fed to get back on the normalization path.

Main Macro Events Today 
 

• NFP Preview – Consensus is for a headline figure of 180k, it could, however, easily be over 200k again. Look for revisions to previous months’ data and for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.8%. Earnings growth has remained stubbornly low, expectation are again for 0.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 9th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th August 2016.



FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, led by another rise in Japan (+0.69%), where volumes were low, and hopes of BoJ support and the bounce back in oil prices underpinned markets. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also trending higher and the front end WTI future is above highs, but remains above USD 42 per barrel. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected (see more below). This should continue to underpin risk appetite, together with hope of further central bank action not just from the BoE, but also the ECB, which has been put under pressure by the BoE’s bold action. Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bond yields are all at record lows as the ECB heads for a policy review in September. Today’s European calendar still has German trade data as well as U.K. production data for June.

BOE McCafferty: “Bank rate can be cut further, closer to zero, and quantitative easing can be stepped up” should the UK economic outlook worsen. He believes a more gradual approach should be taken towards monetary policy as information of how the economy has reacted to the June 23 referendum is still very limited. McCafferty has previously opposed raising the target for quantitative easing government bond purchases. Cable broke the key psychological level of 1.3000 on the release of his comments.

Data Reports: Chinese inflation fell to 1.8% from 1.9% last time but better than the expected 1.7%, PPI figures were also a beat coming in at -1.7% from -2.6% last time.

UK July BRC retail sales unexpectedly rose 1.1% y/y in the like-for-like measure, with consumers wallets sharply contrasting to what consumers mouths were saying after the GfK consumer confidence figure for the same month fell by a series record in the wake of the late-June referendum on EU membership. The BRC noted that nothing materially changed for households in the month after the Brexit vote, while summer sales helped entice consumers to spend after a weather-affected 0.5% drop in sales in June. The BRC cautioned that “the big question for retailers is whether that success can be carried forward into full price sales.”

Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 21.6 bln in June, down from EUR 22.1 bln in the previous month, as exports rose a modest 0.3% m/m after falling -1.1% m/m in May, while imports rose 1.1% m/m. June data meant the sa trade surplus widened to EUR 67.8 bln the second quarter of the year from EUR 61.9 bln in the first quarter. This is nominal data of course, which also reflects exchange rate and oil price developments, but nevertheless, the numbers point to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the second quarter, which should help to compensate for the disappointing production drop.



Main Macro Events Today 

US Productivity – The first release on Q2 productivity is out today and should reveal a 0.6% annualized pace for the headline after a -0.6% figure in Q1. Unit labour costs are expected to be 1.4% from 4.5% in Q1. The first release on Q2 GDP revealed a subdued headline of 1.2% but this was still stronger than the 0.8% pace in Q1.

US Wholesale Trade – June wholesale trade data is also out today and should show a 0.8% increase for headline sales while inventories remain unchanged on the month. This would follow respective May figures of 0.5% for sales and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio ticking down to 1.34 from 1.35 in May and 1.36 in the three months prior to that.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 31st August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st August 2016.



FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, the Japanese Nikkei 225 close up 0.97% at 16,887, with banks and oil producers leading gains. The Hang Seng is little changed and the ASX down, but mainland Chinese markets are moving higher. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are little changed and FTSE 100 futures are heading south. Oil prices are little changed on the day after the front end WTI future fell below USD 47 per barrel Tuesday amid firm U.S. confidence data as Fed’s Fischer repeated that rate hikes will be data dependent and that the economy is close to full employment. The European calendar has more August inflation data, with the overall Eurozone number now seen steady at 0.2% y/y, after weaker than expected German data yesterday. German unemployment is also seen steady in August, while the July Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.0% from 10.1%.

The USD takes centre stage: The dollar has held firm while the yen has continued to underperform. USDJPY rose for a fourth straight session, this time making a one-month high of 103.22. Yesterday the pair broke and closed above the 50-day moving average at 102.69, which now reverts as support. Most yen crosses have followed, with EURJPY also making a one-month peak, and AUDJPY a two-week high. The weaker yen has been tonic for Japanese stock markets. Increased odds for a September rate hike by the Fed, juxtaposed to the likelihood of further easing by the BoJ at its September 20th-21st policy meeting, have been underpinning USDJPY, which we expect to remain the case in the coming weeks, although Friday’s U.S. jobs report will be a key determiner. EURUSD, meanwhile, has remained heavy in the mid 1.11s, though holding above yesterday’s three-week low at 1.1132. Cable has also remained heavy, on net, with a bounce after an above-forecast reading of the August Gfk UK consumer confidence survey failing to sustain. At -7, this is the second lowest in over two years, while the UK Lloyds business confidence survey fell to a near five-year low of 16 in August, down from 29 in July.

US Data Reports: The U.S. consumer confidence pop to an 11-month high of 101.1 reversed the July drop to 96.7 from 97.4 to leave the measure still-below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015. Despite today’s consumer confidence upswing, the full array of confidence indicators continues to trend sideways in 2016. The Michigan sentiment index fell to 89.8 from 90.0, versus a 98.1 cycle-high last January. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 48.4 in August from 45.5 in July but a similar 48.2 in June, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has risen slightly to a 43.6 average thus far in August from a 43.4 average in both June and July, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. Confidence faces an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce in the second half of 2016 as the inventory unwind and petro-hit to factories diminishes. Yet, confidence faces a political headwind from the highly negative and unsettling tone of the U.S. election campaigns.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer may be out on a hawkish limb on his own, speculates a Bloomberg article that is in line with the muted market reaction to his words overnight compared to the reaction in which he hijacked the Jackson Hole calm following Yellen’s speech Friday. Others such as Bullard and Lockhart have been more circumspect on the “hike or two” front this year, leading some analysts to wonder if Fischer is more of an outlier rather than a shadow Chairman. In January he concluded that four hikes this year were probable, which obviously has yet to be met. Of course, the August payrolls report could be the swing factor for or against a September hike, by Fischer’s own admission.The next round of Fedspeak will be from dovesRosengren and Evans, who will take part in a closed panel discussion from China ahead of the US open Wednesday, while moderateKashkari talks about the role of the Fed board. This could slow the USD rise ahead of ADP’s today and NFP data on Friday.

Main Macro Events Today

Canadian GDP Real Q2 GDP, is expected to fall 1.8% after the 2.4% increase in Q1. The temporary halt to oil sands production and the impact on related services that was due to the Fort McMurray wildfire will factor in the Q2 GDP fall. Also, real exports plunged 19.9%, suggestive of a big drag from net exports. Real GDP is expected to rebound 4.0% in Q3 as shuttered production comes back on-line and rebuilding commences in the region.

Eurozone HICP After yesterday’s weaker than expected German HICP number we have lowered our forecast for the overall Eurozone rate to 0.2% y/y, which would leave it unchanged from July. The Spanish HICP rate rose markedly, to -0.3% y/y from -0.7% y/y, but the Belgian headline rate also ticked lower and the French reading, due early today, is also seen unchanged. Inflation rates are only very gradually moving higher and remain firmly below the ECB’s definition of price stability. With confidence indicators showing that especially the manufacturing sector is waking up to the risks of the Brexit scenario and the impact of drop of the Pound against the EUR, the data will add to the arguments of the doves ahead of the September ECB meeting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


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