HFM Posted December 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Date : 9th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today German trade surplus continues to widen.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 20.7 bln in October, up from EUR 19.2 bln in the previous month, as exports declined 1.2% m/m, which was counterbalanced by a 3.4% m/m drop in imports. Import numbers have been very volatile and as this is nominal data also driven by exchange rate and especially oil price developments. Unadjusted data show a trade surplus of EUR 208.8 bln in the first 10 months of hteyear, up from EUR 177.8 bln in the corresponding period 2014. The current account surplus widened to EUR 199.5 bln in the January to October period from EUR 168.8 bln last year. So Germany is likely to remain under attack for its widening trade surplus, despite the fact that for once overall growth is actually driven largely by consumption and domestic demand. China’s CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y pace in November, slightly better than expected following the 1.3% y/y clip in October. The annual CPI growth rate had been slowing since seeing a year high 2.0% y/y rate in August (September was +1.6% y/y), and the pick-up in November suggests government stimulus efforts may have provided some lift to demand. The PPI fell 5.9% y/y in November, matching the rate of decline in October. China’s stocks are unchanged, while the Nikkei is down 1.1% and the Hang Seng is off 0.7%. BoC Poloz downplayed the September GDP plunge, noting that it was driven by special factors. Notably, there was a fire in the oil sands that shut-down some production. That production was back on line in October, he noted. As for Q3, he reminded that the Bank projected it would be “puffed-up” by special factors, notably the child tax credit. Moreover, the weak hand-off to Q4 was also anticipated. They will review the Q4 projection for the January MPR. He reminded that “data do not go in a straight line.” These comments were consistent with his ongoing view that the economy is evolving roughly as they expected in October. In a separate answer, he counseled patience, saying that only half the impact of the policy action this year has been seen. Poloz shot down drawing any conclusion for the discussion of unconventional policy in today’s prepared remarks. “There is no need to contemplate these measures,” he said. He said all the ingredients for Canada’s recovery are in place. “We are not talking about doing that (lowering rates to the lower bound), we are making sure our tool kit is up to date,” he said. He said the bank would use unconventional again in the case of a major shock, such as was seen in 2008. On the growth trajectory, he added that “like we said last week and in October, the pieces are coming together.” US JOLTS job openings fell 151k in October to 5,383k, following September’s 157k rebound (revised from 149k). That caused the rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Hiring rose 57k to 5,137k after declining 1k previously (revised from -32k). The rate was unchanged at 3.6% (September was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 52k in September after falling 44k previously (revised from -51k). The quit rate was steady at 1.9%. The data are on the old side and won’t impact the FOMC, especially as the November jobs data revealed a solid round of numbers. Main Macro Events Today • US Wholesale Trade: October wholesale trade data is out today and should show sales up 0.5% (median 0.3%) following a 0.8% drop in August. Inventories should be down 0.1% following a 0.5% addition in September. Data in line with these forecasts would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a third month from August. • RBNZ rate decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the official cash rate today to 2.5% from 2.75% after the governor Wheeler repeated his comment that “some further easing in the OCR seemes likely”. However, as mentioned this is not the first time the governor says this. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Date : 10th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.50% from 2.75%. The rate cut was widely anticipated. The reduction in the official cash rate as “monetary policy need to be accommodative to help ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range,” Governor Wheeler said. He expects this can be accomplished at the current rate setting, but assured the bank will reduce rates further if needed. On the exchange rate, he said the recent rise in the value of the New Zealand dollar has been “unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate in order to support sustainable growth.” Japan’s PPI improved to a 3.6% y/y rate of decline in November from -3.8% in October. Granted, that is still troublesome for the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy, but at least the rate of decline did not worsen. The PPI fell 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.6% plunge in November. Australia employment surged 71.4k in November after the revised 56.1k gain in October (was +58.6k). The hefty gain in November, which was the largest one month gain since July of 2000, contrasted with expectations for a modest dip following the sizable rise in October. Full time jobs grew 41.6k in November after the 38.4k rise in October (was +40.0k). Part time jobs rose 29.7k after a 17.7k gain (was +18.6k). The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in November from 5.9% while the participation rate rose to 65.3% in November from 65.0%. Two consecutive months of stellar job growth confirms that the RBA’s stimulus efforts are working. Moreover, it trims prospects for further cuts from the RBA next year. We see no change for an extended period. AUD-USD shot higher to the 0.7300 area from 0.7250 ahead of the report. Main Macro Events Today • SNB Rate Decision: The SNB was in luck and Draghi didn’t quite deliver the bazooka markets had been hoping for, which meant market reaction didn’t go quite according to plan and this gives the SNB some time to watch how things develop. That doesn’t mean, there couldn’t be further easing outside a policy setting meeting if there is fresh upward pressure on the currency. • BoE Rate Decision: No change is expected in the Bank of England’s 0.5% rate policy. • Canada Capacity Utilization: We expect the capacity use rate, due Thursday, to recover to 82.0% in Q3 (median 82.1%) from 81.3% in Q2. The anticipated improvement tracks the 2.3% rebound in Q3 GDP after the 0.3% drop in Q2 and the 0.7% pull-back in Q1. • US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of December 5 are out today and should show claims at 268k (median 267k) for the week, down from 269k in the week prior but above the 260k reading before that. Despite improvements in claims data we tend to see increased volatility around the holiday season which accounts for some of the increase in the November average to 269k. We expect a December average of 266k which compares to our forecast for nonfarm payrolls of 190k for the month.3 Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Date : 11th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today German Nov HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.3% y/y, as expected. The national rate was steady at 0.4% y/y and the CPI rate excluding energy fell back marginally to 1.3% y/y from 1.4% y/y. The sharp difference between headline inflation and the ex-energy figure highlights, however, once again that lower energy prices are the main driven behind the weak numbers, which also means the risk of a real deflationary spiral is limited. Both BoE and SNB left policy unchanged at yesterday’s council meeting, as expected. The BoE is still eying a rate hike, but is clearly in no hurry, and if anything the statement was a tad more dovish than the November inflation report. The SNB meanwhile remains ready to intervene on currency markets if necessary. The BoE minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favour of steady policy, with McCafferty continuing his dissent in favour of a rate hike. The vote to maintain the stock of purchased assets at GBP 375 bln was taken unanimously, as in the last meeting. The BoE’s November inflation report was already a tad more dovish and the MPC said today that the risks to the view back then that “if Bank Rate were to follow the gently rising path implied by the prevailing market yields then inflation would exceed slightly the 2% target in two years and then rise further above it”, lie a little to the downside in the first two years. This means under the implied gentle tightening path inflation may no longer exceed target in two years’ time, but not necessarily that it won’t reach the target. US reports revealed the expected big trade price hits from commodity prices in November before likely bigger declines in December, with broad-based price drops beyond commodities, and particular weakness in export prices. We also saw a 13k initial claims rise to 282k in the first week of December that extended the 9k bounce to 269k in the Thanksgiving week of November. The sharp 22k two-week climb for claims raises the stakes for next week’s report, though for now the rise can be attributed to holiday volatility. We still expect a 200k December payroll rise that undershoots big recent gains of 211k in November and 298k i n October as well as the 210k average year-to-date gain for 2015, but that beats the 174k Q3 average monthly gain. Main Macro Events Today • US Retail Sales: November retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline with a 0.3% (median 0.3%) increase ex-autos. This follows October figures of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Despite the firm auto sales data for November, retail sales are facing headwinds from the decline in gasoline prices and a drop in construction hours worked as we discussed in Monday’s commentary. • US PPI: November PPI should reveal a 0.1% (median unchanged) headline with a 0.1% (median 0.1%) increase for the core. This should bring the y/y figure to -1.2% from -1.6% in October which set a new recent low. Declines in oil prices over the past year have acted to hold down most inflation measures. • US Business Inventories: October business inventories should come in unchanged (median 0.1%) headline for inventories with shipments for the month down 0.2%. This follows respective September figures of 0.3% for inventories and unchanged for September. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio at 1.38, steady from September. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Date : 14th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th December 2015. GBPUSD UPDATE, DOWNSIDE PRESSURE REMAINS GBPUSD, Daily The GBP is under pressure ahead of this week’s U.S. FOMC interest rate decision that could provide continued uplift for the USD against the GBP. I would expect some GBPUSD choppy trading as we move closer to Wednesday since also on tap we have some key U.K. data that, if disappoints, could support a Bank of England interest rate hike delay, which in turn could provide some further support for GBPUSD short sellers. I would expect the GBPUSD to remain biased to the downside against the USD in the current macro environment with my technical medium term price targets for the GBPUSD at 1.4955 (S1) with a possible test of the April 20th lows near 1.4890 (S2). Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Date : 16th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today Today’s main event is the long awaited U.S. Interest Rate Decision. My view is that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates today. I believe that the Fed understands that if they fail to hike today, the U.S. Fed’s credibility will most certainly be challenged. Let’s not forget that the U.S. Fed has been holding the markets hostage for many months, thereby creating a large amount of uncertainty in the markets with constant talk about the pending interest rate adjustment higher, only to disappoint the markets with no action during the previous meetings. Today’s “potential” rate hike will open the door, in my opinion, for further rate hikes over the coming year. Most professional traders are very aware of this fact and have already been adjusting positions accordingly. In overnight stock market trading and ahead of today’s important U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, global stock markets surged higher, with solid gains in Asian, Europe and Wall Street yesterday. The “pending” increase in U.S. Dollar borrowing cost is viewed by the stock markets as a net positive that the economy is healthy and that growth will continue to follow despite the higher cost of borrowing. So far today, the USD has consolidated yesterday’s gains, after core CPI data out of the U.S. provided a final conformation of market expectations for the Fed to deliver a long-awaited rate hike later today. The general market mode for today, I would see it as swinging between “risk-on” and “risk-off” as traders jockey for positions, with high volatility especially during the U.S. FOMC Press Conference scheduled for later tonight at 7:30PM GMT. The heavy price action will be around the FOMC Economic Projections, the FOMC Statement followed by the FOMC Press Conference. Traders will have a long night of trading with plenty of action expected. I wish you all good luck on this historic trading day! Main Macro Events Today • EUR CPI data: the final reading of CPI data for November, which should confirm the headline rate at 0.1% y/y (med same) and core inflation at 0.9% y/y. The decline in oil prices remains the main factor weighing on CPI, although core inflation also eased slightly last month, as the drop in basic goods prices is feeding through the production chain. Still, the ECB already reacted to this by easing policy further and ECB’s Coeure said deflation risks are off the table now with the latest set of measures, so the numbers won’t change the policy outlook. • USD U.S. Industrial Production: November industrial production is out on today and should reveal a 0.2% (median -0.2%) decline which would mark the third strait month of 0.2% drops. Despite the firm November employment report there is some downside risk to industrial production as factory employment declined by 1k and mining employment was down by 11k for the month. We expect capacity utilization at 77.3% (median 77.4%) from 77.5% in October. • USD U.S. Housing Starts: November housing starts are out today and analyst expect a 1,130k (median 1,133k) headline following a 1,060k headline in October which marked an 11.0% decline from September. Analyst expect permits at 1,150k from 1,161k and completions should rise to 1,000k from 965k in October. The warmer weather through November should lend some upside risk to the release despite the slow down in the already released November NAHB which declined to 62 from 65 in October. • USD Interest Rate Decision: FOMC made two key changes in the policy statement that put a Fed hike on the table for today, even as it left rates unchanged in October. Fed removed the comment from the September statement that “recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat” and replaced it with “monitoring” developments. Also said “in determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting” Those two changes reversed the dovishness from the September meeting and ostensibly reduced the concerns over the slowdown in China that Chair Yellen mentioned in her presser Statement somewhat at odds with slowing in recent data, however, but acknowledged job gains had slowed while unemployment rate held steady Inflation continues to run the below the Committee’s long run target. Over the last five trading days and ahead of the build-up towards the U.S. Interest Rate decision, money is seen flowing into the USD. The U.S. buck has held firmer against the JPY, AUD, GBP, CAD, EUR, NZD and the CHF amid the backdrop of strong global stock markets and the fact that the U.S. Fed is widely expected to start the rate lift-off today. The GBP suffers losses across the board as the latest data from the United Kingdom indicates that the BoE will not make a move to hike the GBP cost of borrowing until possibly 2017. Also, the fact that the BoE worries about a possible rate rise by the Fed today, will put upward pressure on GBP. For the moment, the market will be pricing in an evidentially BoE rate hike after the Fed opens the door first. The AUD has underperformed since Australia remains vulnerable to the weakness in the global commodities markets. GBPUSD, Daily (Updated) The GBP has been trading lower in the initial wake of last week’s December BoE meeting which showed the Monetary Policy Committee was focusing on the recent decline in nominal pay growth, which was taken by markets as a dovish shift in the BoE’s thinking, in turn reducing expectations for BoE rate rift-off anytime soon. Technically, I remain bearish on GBP against the USD in the current macro environment with my technical short term price targets for the GBPUSD at 1.4955 (S1) with a possible test of the April 20th lows near 1.4890 (S2). FX Pair : GBPUSD Supports : 104955 Resistances : 1.53 AUDUSD Daily, (Updated) The minutes to the RBA’s early-December policy review reaffirmed the view that the central bank is increasingly comfortable with the economic prognosis. Notably the RBA dropped “members judged that monetary policy needed to be accommodative,” although it maintained that the inflation outlook “may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy” if needed. Technically, the AUDUSD is at risk of further medium-term losses, Monday’s drop has so far failed to hold, a price bounce from .716 could leave a lower top near the .7230′s ahead of a breakdown towards .7070 area. FX Pair : AUDUSD Supports : 0.7180/0.7070 Resistances : 0.7360/0.7450 Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HEREto access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Date : 22nd December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today German and U.K. GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved with the EURUSD seeing a minor rally from lows under 1.0850 to near 1.0940 in Monday’s trade. However, price still remains below the 10 day moving average. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD price trades just above the 1.4880 support level at the time of writing. Crude oil prices remain fragile in the face of unrelenting supply; USOil price is trading higher today with prices just under $36 at the time of writing, the lower USD this morning has supported oil prices. Gold has been moving higher as a softer U.S. dollar activated short covering. Global stock markets are mixed with strong gains in the U.S., Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing slightly lower, while European stock exchanges closing lower by 1%+. Asian stock markets have closed mostly higher, as U.S. and U.K. stock futures did. This points to gains on European markets at the open after the Monday European market sell off, as the traditional Christmas rally continues. The U.S. calendar data reports today aren’t likely to have much impact, as attention turns to Christmas and the New Year holidays. Main Macro Events Today • U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index: Analyst expect an improvement to 0.0 from -3.0 in November. The Empire State and Philly Fed are already out and showed mixed headline performance which would indicate another month of depressed sentiment. • USD Final GDP: Analyst expect Q3 GDP to be revised down to 1.8% from 2.1% in the final report, following 3.9% growth in Q2. Forecast risk: downward, given the huge inventory boost that is being unwound with data revisions. Market risk: downward, as weakness may delay Fed tightening assumptions for 2016.Inventories are expected to be revised down by $10 bln. • USD Housing Price Index: Analyst expect existing home sales to rise 0.7% to a 5.400 mln unit rate in November following the 3.4% October decrease to 5.360 mln units. Forecast risk: downward, as NAHB declined in November. Market risk: downward, as a run of weaker data could impact rate hike time lines. The pending home sales index should grow by 0.3%. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HEREto access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Date : 23rd December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 23rd December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today Today’s trading session will be quiet, as Japanese markets are closed to celebrate the Emperor’s Birthday. We may see some activity around the CAD later today upon the release of the Canadian Core Retail Sales and GDP data. In over night trading, Asian equity markets closed the session mostly higher, while U.S. stocks charged higher posting gains of nearly 1% for the session. The major USD currency pairs continued to lack direction without any market catalyst on tab to jolt the USD in any meaningful direction. EURUSD remains in a tight range within the 1.09s after marking a one week high near 1.0980's yesterday. USDJPY also appears to be in a narrowly range around 121.00 for a third day, with the sharp volatility seen in the wake of last Friday’s BoJ policy fading away. Industrial metals and oil prices have been moving higher, as investors’ confidence about the growth prospects in the U.S. and China increases. Main Macro Events Today • JPY Japan : Bank Holiday • GBP United Kingdom Final GDP: Q3 expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y • CAD Core Retail Sales: Analyst expect retail sales values, due later today, to improve 0.8% in October (median 0.6%) following the 0.5% drop in September. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to gain 0.5% m/m in October (median +0.5%) after the 0.5% pull-back in September. Gasoline prices fell 2.0% m/m in October, a comparatively modest pull-back compared to the 7.9% plunge in September according to the CPI. Hence, we should see an only modest drag from gas station sales on total and ex-autos sales. Moreover, gasoline prices remain very low relative to a year ago, which could continue to underpin spending along with low interest rates. Vehicle sales were firm through November, which should be supportive of total sales in both October and November. • CAD October GDP: Analyst expect GDP, due Wednesday, to rise 0.2% in October (median +0.3%) after the 0.5% plunge in September. The projection is driven by an expected boost from the return to production of an oil sands producer that was off-line due to fire in September. That boost is seen offsetting drags from manufacturing, wholesale and housing. But the expected boost from the oil sand producer could be tempered by temporary closures at other refineries (notably Irving Oil in St. John). • U.S. Durable Goods: November durable goods data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 1.5% (median -0.7%) decline in orders for the month with inventories and sales both remaining unchanged in November. This follows respective October figures of 2.9% for orders with shipments down 1.0% and inventories down 0.3%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.65 from October. • U.S. Personal Income: November personal income is out Wednesday and analyst expect a 0.3% (median 0.2%) increase in headline income with consumption up 0.3% (median 0.3%) as well. This would follow October figures of 0.4% for income and 0.1% for consumption which prompted a bounce in the savings rate to 5.6% from 5.3% in September. For price data analyst expect the PCE Chain Price Index to remain unchanged with the core up 0.2%, matching the November CPI figures. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 Date : 24th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today The U.S. markets will be closing early today, ahead of Christmas Day and trading should be limited. The U.S. stock markets have enjoyed 3 straight day’s of gains in the usually end of year rally. Stock markets have been partly supported by the nearly 4% gains seen in the price of U.S. Oil, with Crude prices clearing to the upside of $37.00, following news that EIA crude inventories plunged 5.88 mln bbls compared to a Reuters forecast of a 1.1 mln build (6.98 mln bbl difference). The only U.S. data report today is weekly jobless claims, expected to edge up 1k to 272k. U.S. economic reports revealed slightly encouraging personal income data and an upside durable orders surprise. European markets will be quiet today. The German market has already closed for Christmas, while the U.K. market will be closed on Monday for Boxing Day. The only data on the agenda is from the U.K. with BBA mortgage approvals. The GBP has been preforming today, rising against the USD. The pound’s run higher following a near two-week period of notable under-performance as markets scaled back BoE tightening expectations. Cable has been posting gains with markets shrugging off an unexpected downward revision lower in final UK Q3 GDP data for the last two trading sessions in what continues to be a technical bounce. The EURUSD dipped under 1.0950, which roughly marks the 50% retracement of the rally from last week’s 1.0800 low. The USDJPY broke to the downside of the 120.60 support. Main Macro Events Today • JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reveled slow wage and capital expenditure growth are areas of concern but were optimistic that companies will start to boost spending once emerging economies improved. The BOJ kept policy steady since October, betting that companies will use their profits to lift wages and capital expenditure and help kick off a positive economic cycle. The Nov. 18-19 rate review, the BOJ board discussed why companies were slow to respond. Companies probably felt their current record profits were due to temporary factors like the weak yen and low energy costs, and weren’t convinced that earnings would remain strong in the future, the minutes showed. At the time of writing the JPY is sharply stronger vs the USD with the USDJPY pair down around 50 pips for the session. • EUR German Bank Holiday: • USD Unemployment Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 272k (median 270k) in the week-ended December 19. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,232k for the week-ended December 12. Forecast risk: upward, as holiday hiring could hold down claims. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikes. • NZD Bank Holiday: • AUD Bank Holiday: Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Date : 29th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today The USD majors continued to trade in narrow ranges, strong stock markets in Asia coupled with a recent rebound in diary prices have helped underpin the New Zealand dollar, the NZD continues it’s multi-week rally against the USD gaining nearly 450 pips since mid November. The EURUSD, meanwhile, remained in the mid-1.09s, below yesterdays near two week high at 1.0992, and USDJPY has remained above yesterday’s two-month low at 120.16. The European calendar is once again very quiet, with only Italian consumer and business confidence numbers of note. There remains little data on tap from the Central Banks as we move closer to the end of 2015. U.S. calendar has the trade in goods, home price index, and consumer confidence, the focus will be on the Consumer Confidence report. Asian markets moved higher, with banks leading stocks to the eighth straight day of gains, at the time of writing U.S. stock futures are in positive territory. Oil prices are slightly higher, with USOil trading just under the 37 per barrel mark. Main Macro Events Today • USD U.S. Consumer Confidence: December consumer confidence is out later today and analyst expect to see a headline increase to 94.0 from 90.4 in November. Along side the headline, analyst expect current conditions t o rise to 110.0 from 108.1 and current conditions to improve to 83.4 from 78.6.Michigan Sentiment improved in December with a climb to 92.6 as of it’s second release from 91.3 in November and the IBD/TIPP poll rose to 47.2 from 45.5. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 Date : 30th December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 30th December 2015. TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS REPORT Over the past 5 days, the British Pound Sterling (GBP) has been under-performing against the major pairs, as the negative impact of the United Kingdom’s Q3 growth rate downward revision to 0.4% from 0.5% is seen as the reason for the most resent sell-off of the GBP. The AUD has started to strengthen across the board over the last 5 trading sessions because the domestic economy has shown promising signs of improvement, despite weak commodity prices and a drop in the Chinese Yuan. As we move closer towards the end of 2015, the USD is little changed over the last 5 day period, as the latest US economic data has had no change on the view about the direction of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy remains healthy and this view is supported by the fact that the personal spending m/m rose by 0.3. We have also seen the Michigan consumer sentiment revised up to 92.6. Traders are seen to be slowly moving into safe haven currencies as the year end approaches, however if the U.S. economic data remains relatively positive, then markets would expect the U.S. Fed to remain on path of gradual rate hikes in 2016 which will further support USD buying interest for some time to come GBPJPY, Daily GBPJPY continues in a downtrend from its November high near 188.80; price is below the downward sloping valid trend line, resistance is spotted at 182.10 and the next relevant support is near the 2015 lows (175.50). Stochastic analysis remains towards the downside and moving average analysis also supports my opinion that the GBPJPY should continue its downward course. Fundamentally, the GBP does not have any real reasons to strengthen as the U.K. Q3 GDP growth rate has been adjusted downwards and the BoE will hold off on any rate hike for some time. Meanwhile, the JPY has some reason to gather some strength against the GBP, since Japan’s economy is expected to continue recovering moderately, according to the Bank Of Japan. Exports are expected to increase moderately as emerging economies move out of their deceleration phase. Business fixed investment is projected to continue increasing moderately and private Consumption is expected to remain resilient. Housing investment is projected to continue picking up. Industrial Production is likely to remain more or less flat for the time being. My trading view for the GBPJPY is to sell the GBPJPY into strength for a target area at 175.50 zone. GBPUSD, Daily (Updated) GBP has recouped to the mid-1.48s after posting a seven-month low at 1.4785 yesterday. Yesterday’s decline marked a resumption of the GBP bear market as markets adjusted to a more dovish than expected tone in the minutes to the early December BoE monetary policy meeting. There is no market impact, UK data or events of note until the New Year. Things will kick-off on January 4, when the December version of the Markit manufacturing PMI survey will be released, along with the BoE’s monthly report on lending activity. A technically price bounce is now under way with prices possibly to bounce towards the 1.5100 (sell zone), ahead of an additional decline towards the 1.4720 area (161.8 fibonacci extension level based on the 4-hour chart). Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted December 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Date : 31st December 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 31st December 2015. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS FX News Today Lower oil prices weighed moderately on North American equity markets with the Dow Jones ending lower -0.66%, and the USD traded relatively steady. Today, the last trading day of the year should bring more of the same, as Japan is on holiday, and the economic calendar is almost nonexistent. The overnight Asian session traded in a narrow range, leaving the USDJPY in a holding pattern. In Europe, the DAX is heading for a year end level that is still far off the highs seen earlier in the year but nevertheless markedly higher than at the start of the year. Thin holiday trade exaggerated moves, and Germany, Italy, Scandinavia and Switzerland will remain closed for the New Year’s Eve and tomorrow, while other European markets close early. Eurozone M3 money supply growth decelerated to 5.1% y/y in November from 5.3% y/y in October, in line with Analyst forecast. The growth rate of loans to households rose to 1.4% y/y from 1.2% y/y and loans to non-financial corporations rose 0.9% y/y. Annual money supply growth remains high and lending slowly picks up as credit conditions improve. Much of the remaining weakness in lending to companies is also due to a lack of demand, as most remain happy to fulfill current orders with existing capacity. Crude Oil fell to $36.40 session lows following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.6 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 2.0 mln bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 mln bbls actually rose 900k bbls, while distillate stocks were up 1.8 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 mln bbl rise. Refinery usage rose to 92.6% from 91.3%. Overall, a bearish report. Gold took a bit of a tumble, with sellers apparently stepping in on the move under $1,065 , which had provided support over the past two sessions. The contract had peaked at $1,072.20 overnight, and is currently trading near $1,063. Main Macro Events Today • EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: No Comment. • USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of December 26 are out today and should reveal an increase to 275k (median 270k) from 267k last week and 272k in the week prior. Claims have continued to show restraint through the holiday season despite an increase in volatility and December looks poised to leave a monthly average of 272k, only slightly higher than the 270k in average in November but up from the 263k average for October. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Date : 18th January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th January 2016. THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD Main Macro Events This Week United States: After the holiday break today (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day), the U.S. economic calendar may offer only limited last-minute insight for the Fed ahead of its policy decision the following week. Not that the markets care, having already priced the Fed out of the picture near-term following the resumption of Asian influenza in the oil and equity markets. The NAHB housing market index is forecast to rise to 62 in January from 61 (Tuesday), while CPI is expected to be a tame at unchanged headline and 0.2% core (Wednesday) and housing starts should rise 0.4% to a 1,178k pace in December. The Philly Fed index may rebound to -7.0 in January (median -5.5) vs -10.2 and initial jobless claims are forecast (Thursday) to sink 15k to 269k for the January 16 week. Existing home sales may snap back 11.3% to a 5.3 mln pace in January relative the 10.5% plunge in December (Friday), with the leading indicators is set to dip 0.1% in December from 0.4%. Canada: Economic data features manufacturing and wholesale trade (Wednesday). Those reports will be lost in the glare cast by the BoC announcement later that same day, but will provide another round of clues on how Canada’s economy performed in Q4. We expect a 0.7% gain in manufacturing shipments and a 0.5% rise in wholesale shipments, which would be suggestive of some growth in the total economy after the disappointing stall-out in October GDP. The week ends with CPI and retail sales (Friday). CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.8% y/y pace in December from the 1.4% clip in November, but the pick-up is due to a more difficult annual comparison. CPI is seen falling 0.3% m/m in December, driven by falling gasoline prices. Core CPI is expected to pick-up slightly to a 2.1% y/y clip in December from 2.0% in November, although the index is expected to show a 0.3% m/m drop that is in line with seasonal trends. Retail sales are projected to rise another 0.1% in November after an identical anemic gain in October, with the ex-autos aggregate seen up 0.3% after the flat reading in October. Europe: Data releases during the week will only fuel the fears of the doves. Final December inflation readings are likely to confirm the German HICP rate (Tuesday) at just 0.2% y/y and the overall EMU HICP number (Thursday) at the same level. Core inflation remains higher at 0.9% y/y, but even this is still far away from the 2% upper limit for price stability and against expectations for an uptick in the headline rate at the end of last year. United Kingdom: A busy data week looms, which arrives with sterling underperforming and Gilts outperforming as markets push back BoE tightening expectations. We expect data this week will side with this theme, which will includes December inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labour market data, covering November and December (Wednesday), retail sales for December and monthly government borrowing numbers (Friday). We forecast headline CPI at 0.1% y/y in December (median same), unchanged from November. Core CPI is also expected unchanged, at 1.2% y/y (median same). Ebb in economic momentum, renewed energy price declines, and abating wage growth suggests the inflation outlook will remain a benign one for now. Labour data has us expecting an unchanged reading in the official ILO unemployment rate of 5.2% in November (median same). The December claimant count rate is seen rising by 2.9k, down from 3.9k in the previous month. Of particular interest will be average household income, as this is a metric being closely monitored by the BoE. We expect to see a further whittling in wages, to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% and to 1.8% y/y from 2.0% in the ex-bonus reading in data covering the three months to November. We anticipate retail sales to have fallen by 0.2% m/m in December (median -0.3%). The annual comparison is expected at +4.4% after 5.5% growth in the previous month. China: In China, Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is seen at a 6.5% growth rate, slower than Q3’s 6.9% clip, and disappointing the government’s 7.0% projected pace. With all the recent concerns over growth, this data point will have potential to move global markets. The remaining releases all are due on Tuesday December industrial output will be important for the general outlook and expectations are for a 6.1% y/y growth rate, versus the 6.2% seen in November. December retail sales are penciled in at 11.1% y/y from the prior 11.2%, while December fixed investment likely inched down to 10.1% y/y from 10.2% in November. December foreign direct investment is seen sliding to 1.0% y/y from the previous 1.9% pace. Australia: Australia’s calendar lacks nourishing top tier data this week, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) drought continues. However, some second tier economic reports are on the slate: the TD-MI inflation gauge (Monday) and November HIA new home sales (Thursday) may be of some interest. The RBA remains on its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the New Year. As expected data this week would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting. HEDGE FUNDS DOUBLE THEIR SHORT CRUDE OIL BETS Crude Oil, Monthly Brent crude fell over 4% in logging a new 12-year low at $27.70 (WTI low was $28.36) in the March futures contract during the Asian session today, and is presently sitting in the low $28s. The lifting of sanctions against Iran has been the latest selling prompt amid forecasts that this will lead to an increase of 500 kb per day of crude entering the market this year (according to Barclays, cited by the FT). This will add to an already pronounced supply overhang. The recent Morgan Stanley forecast for $20 oil is starting to look reachable. The price of crude oil has been moving lower with selling pressure related to several fundamental factors. Markets have been worried about slowing growth in China and diminishing demand of oil as the global economic growth is slowing down as well. However, the slide has had more to do with supply than demand. The inventories have been high with production staying at elevated levels even though the rig count has come down significantly. Now the news of Iran embargo and sanctions being lifted has intensified the bearish bets in the oil markets. According to Bloomberg, hedge funds have doubled their bearish bets in the oil markets over the last two weeks. Also, OPEC supply has been on the increase as it has defended the market share and tried to drive US producers out of business. In the long term picture WTI Crude is near 2003 lows with the next monthly support level at 24 dollars while there are significant resistance levels relatively close at 33.20 (year 01/2009 low) and 37.75 (08/2015). Crude Oil, 240 min Since January 8th the WTI crude oil futures market has been tied into a bearish channel. After making a new low during the Asian session today crude has rallied a bit and is not far from a resistance at 29.93. Another potential resistance area is near 30.72 level where the bear channel top, 30 period SMA and 23.6 Fibonacci level coincide. Should the market manage to rally even higher and beyond the channel, the 31.42-32.10 area where the upper Bollinger Bands, the 50 period SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement coincide could be a level where the market turns lower again. Conclusion Market is trending lower which is a reason to look for low risk selling opportunities. Potential short entry levels are: 29.94, 30.72 and an area at 31.42-32.10. We are interested in shorts if market hits these levels and provides us with sell signals. The market being in the downtrend it makes sense to have both a short term target (Target 1) and a target that is a bit further away. My targets for WTI crude are: Target 1: 28.88 and Target 2: 25.20 Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Date : 19th January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th January 2016. MACRO EVENTS AND NEWS FX News Today The yen is weaker amid improved risk appetite, while commodity currencies have firmed. This comes with oil and most other commodity prices gaining over 1% in the Asia session, and with stock markets rebounding, led by 3%-plus advances in the main China indexes. AUDJPY, which is the currency cross most correlative with China market sentiment, is up by 1.3% after Chinese YoY GDP numbers weren’t worse than expected. The AUD, meanwhile, is showing a 0.6% gain, and the CAD a 0.7% rise, against the USD. A further whittling in the yen’s safe haven premium has seen USDJPY climbed over 0.5% to the upper 117s. The EUR is mixed, down versus the USD but up versus the JPY. China growth was weakest in 25 years, as shown by the latest GDP figures. The Q4 growth disappointed slightly (1.6% instead of 1.7% consensus expectation) and was down by 0.2% from the previous quarter. The year on year GDP change was in line with the expectations at 6.8% but was 0.1% slower than the previous figure. Chinese government’s transition from infrastructure spending and export oriented economy to a consumer spending oriented economy hasn’t happened as quickly as was expected. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all slowed in December but the overall growth in the Chinese economy is still encouraging. German Dec HICP was confirmed at 0.2% y/y, the national CPI rate at 0.3% y/y, weaker than originally expected, but in line with preliminary data. National prices were down -0.1% m/m, driven by a 14.5% m/m drop in oil prices and a -4.4% m/m decline in petrol prices. Oil still continues to drive overall inflation trends then and excluding household energy and petrol, the headline rate would have been 1.1% y/y. Still this is down from 1.3% y/y in the previous month and 1.4% y/y in October, which will back the arguments of the doves at the ECB, which already pushed for more easing measures in December against German resistance. The current market rout and the drop in oil prices since then, which lead to even more pressure on Draghi to top up the measures already announced in December. Main Macro Events Today German ZEW:The January set of confidence readings are likely to reflect the deterioration in global sentiment this year, especially ZEW Investor Confidence, which is seen falling to 9.0 (med 8.5) from 16.1 in December. Together with the ongoing rout on global stock markets and the pressure on oil prices, the numbers will likely see Draghi delivering a dovish press conference on Thursday, even if it seems the ECB will follow the BoE’s example and defer a final judgement of the impact of lower oil prices and slowing growth in China, to the next update of official forecasts and projections, which for the ECB is in March. BoE Governor Speech: Market participants are expecting the governor Carney to shed light on the Bank of England’s future monetary policy. We expect the BoE to hike interest rates by 25bp in Q2 2016, which would take the repo rate to 0.75%. This would be the first policy change since March 2009, and the first tightening since July 2007. US NAHB housing market index: is out today and forecast to rise to 62 in January from 61. NZDUSD UPDATE, SHORT TERM PRICE TO BOUNCE HIGHER NZDUSD, 4 Hour The macro backdrop for the Kiwi (NZD) remains bearish with recent data showing weak credit card retail sales in New Zealand, along with the risk off global sentiment that kicked off the start of the year, the currency has been kept under pressure. My expectation for the short term is that the NZD may attempt a short term price move higher since the NZDUSD price bounced higher at the 76.4% Fibo retracement level. This price bounce higher leaves me with the view that global risk taking might be attempting a switch back on. My conclusion supports long positions for a price target at 0.6540. In the long term picture WTI Crude is near 2003 lows with the next monthly support level at 24 dollars while there are significant resistance levels relatively close at 33.20 (year 01/2009 low) and 37.75 (08/2015). PAIR: NZDUSD SOPPORTS: 0.6400 RESISTANCES: 0.6490 Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex & John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Date : 21st January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st January 2016. MACRO EVENTS AND NEWS FX News Today The risk roller-coaster resumed in Asia where shares snapped back after Wall Street cut savage Wednesday losses into the close, with Japan’s Nikkei up 1.5% and Hong Kong Hang Seng +1.3%. China’s Shanghai Comp opened over 1.4% lower before rebounding 0.6% into the green after the PBoC injected a heavy dose of 110 bln yuan via 7-day reverse repos and 290 bln via 28-day reverse repos in the largest open market operation in 3-years. Commodities bounced back with crude oil back over $28 bbl, while copper and other industrial metals strengthened. The yen gave up some of its new-found strength as the dollar rose above 117.00 to highs of 117.47, while gold retreated below $1,100. The 0.111% December US CPI drop with a lean 0.127% core price increase undershot estimates despite the expected 2.4% energy price slip and 0.2% food price decline thanks to a 0.2% apparel price drop that marked a fourth consecutive decline, a 0.1% new vehicle price dip, and a lean 0.1% medical care service price rise. US housing starts declined 2.5% to 1.149 mln in December following the 10.1% jump in November to 1.179 mln (revised from 1.173 mln), while October’ pace was boosted to 1.071 mln from 1.062 mln. On an annual basis starts are up 6.4% y/y versus 17.1% y/y previously. Single family starts declined 3.3%. Multifamily starts slid 1.0%. Building permits fell 3.9% to 1.232 mln from a revised 1.282 mln (was 1.289 mln). Housing completions bounced 5.6% after two months of declines. The headline starts figure is disappointing, which won’t help investors’ shaky mindset. Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady and maintains constructive Outlook: The Bank of Canada held rates steady at 0.50%, maintaining their constructive view on domestic growth as the ongoing adjustment to lower oil and commodity prices is facilitated by already implemented rate cuts and the decent in the loonie. The outlook for global and domestic growth was cautiously upbeat. Our base case remains for no change in rates through year end, although a continuation of rock-bottom oil prices will keep the conversation skewed toward the possibility of another reduction as soon as March. Main Macro Events Today ECB: Draghi likely to take wait and see stance for now,in line with other central banks. Even the doves at the ECB seem to think it is too early to react to the rout in global markets and that one needs to wait if current trends continue or if things settle down again. But even if the ECB is likely to stay on hold for now, Draghi will be very eager to keep the door wide open to additional measures later on and the tone of the press conference will almost certainly be more dovish than in December. The sharp drop in oil prices in particular will be a focus, but also the fact that Eurozone spreads are widening sharply again in line with the pickup in risk aversion, which highlights that the risk of a renewed flaring up of the Eurozone debt crisis has not been banned yet. March will be the next date to focus on as that will bring the updated set of staff projections. US Philadelphia Fed Index: January Philly Fed is expected to improve to -7.0 (median -5.5) from -10.2 in December and -5.7 in November. This compares to the already releasedEmpire State index which plunged to -19.4 in January from -6.2 in December. Overall, we expect producer sentiment to trend sideways in January with and ISM-adjusted average of all major measures holding at 50 where it has remained since September. US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of January 16th are out today and are expected to show a decline to a 269k (median 272k) headline from 284k in the week prior. There is some downside risk to the release as post-holiday layoffs occur. January claims look poised to average 271k for the month, down from 277k in December. GBPUSD STILL TRENDING LOWER GBPUSD, 240 min Sterling, which has been under across-the-board pressure, was given a toehold by better than expected UK labour data yesterday. GBPUSD lifted to a 1.4219 high today, which put in a little space from the five-year low that was clocked just ahead of the data release. The unemployment unexpectedly dipped to 5.1% y/y in November, down from 5.2% at the previous reading and the lowest since August 2005. This takes the jobless rate farther below the BoE’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) at 5.5%, though the average household income in the three months to November ebbed to 2.0% y/y from 2.4% y/y in the previous month. The data follows dovish guidance from BoE’s Carney, who yesterday said that now wasn’t the right time to tighten policy, but should help the pound find a footing after a period of pronounced underperformance. On technical side the pair still looks weak. GBPUSD has dropped some 150 pips since my Tweet on the pair and has passed beyond my target. Important weekly support levels are not far away with the first one being at 1.4100 but this shouldn’t stop us from looking to sell the rallies as long as the market stays in a down trend. The 1.4232 – 1.4252 area has technical significance as it has a small Fibonacci cluster, a resistance level and 30 period SMA coinciding while the upper end of the bear channel isn’t that far either. If market rallies further the next potential level for short trades is between 1.4280 and 1.4300. We look for a rally to either of these levels and then sell signals to trigger short trades. Targets are: 1.4125 (T1) and 1.3850 (T2). Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Date : 22nd January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd January 2016. MACRO EVENTS AND NEWS FX News Today Euro weakness and commodity currency strength has been the central theme in forex markets in the wake of the ECB’s dovish guidance yesterday. The biggest mover has been the Russian rouble, which is up 3% against the dollar, and by more than this versus the euro as a 4%-plus rebound in oil prices sparked a rebound from record lows. EURAUD, EURNZD and EURCAD are also down notably today. AUDUSD climbed back above 0.7000 for the first time in eight days. EURUSD has remained above yesterday’s post-ECB low at 1.0777, but has remained heavy, giving back most of the rebound gains to 1.0900 in unraveling to the low 1.08s. The yen has mostly traded lower, except in the case against the euro, as its safe haven premium unwound. Japanese stock markets led Asian markets higher, closing 5.88% for the better — its second biggest one-day gain in the last five years, according to Bloomberg. Draghi gave markets what they wanted, a clear hint that the ECB may extend easing measures further in March when the QE program will be reviewed again and Draghi highlighted that this move towards an easing bias, was adopted unanimously, which means it is also backed by Bundesbank President Weidmann. Draghi said in the introductory statement that the downside risks that emerged since the start of the year mean that there is the “need to review and possibly reconsider” the policy stance in March, when the next set of forecasts are available. In the Q&A session he was keen to highlight this part of the statement, which confirms that Draghi’s message to markets is that the ECB can and will do more if necessary. The question is what the ECB can still do – and Draghi didn’t go into detail when quizzed about that, just reiterated again that the ECB is willing to use all “instruments available”. So we could see a further QE extension and in particular an extension to other papers, as the pool of eligible assets is limited under the current structure of QE. BoC Outlook: Rate cut bets that were unfulfilled have been moved ahead to March and April, according to Bloomberg, which cities futures pricing in roughly 50% odds for a cut by April. The globeandmail.com spotlights the contrast between the Bank’s optimism and the increasingly weaker domestic growth outlook. To review, the BoC’s lack of cut day before yesterday was accompanied by a still constructive growth outlook. Granted, 2016 GDP was slashed to 1.4% from 2.0%, but the return to full capacity growth was only delayed to the end of 2017 from 2017. We see a 1.3% growth rate in 2016, but downside risks abound. Main Macro Events Today EMU PMI:We are looking for broadly stable PMI readings in January, with the Eurozone manufacturing reading seen steady at 53.2 (med same) and the services reading to 54.1 (med 54.2). Even German ZEW investor confidence, which naturally is much more sensitive for market moves, came in somewhat better than expected and French national business sentiment yesterday also showed a slight improvement. With Draghi sending the ECB on course for further moves in March, even a better than expected PMI reading may have limited impact, although it would underpin the recovery in stock markets. Canada CPI Preview: We expect CPI to expand at a 1.8% y/y pace in December (median +1.7%), accelerating from the 1.4% rate in November. CPI is seen falling 0.3% month comparable basis in December after slipping 0.1% in November. Gas prices fell 5.0% in December compared to November, which is expected to weigh on month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen falling 0.2% m/m in December after the 0.3% drop in November. US Existing Home Sales Preview: December existing home sales data is out Friday and should reveal a 11.3% headline increase to a 5.300 mln (median 5.120 mln) pace following the 10.5% drop to 4.760 mln in November. NZDUSD UPDATE, IS GLOBAL RISK APPETITE DRIVING KIWI? NZDUSD, Daily The latest global market theme driving markets is the “risk on – risk off” play. Although I do not like the term “risk on–risk off”, one will find it hard to disagree with the current market “theme”. The recent “risk on–risk off theme” has so far played out well for traders who are playing NZDUSD. As risk appetite swings day-to-day from “on/off”, those NZDUSD traders who are plugged into the current theme are swinging with the NZDUSD from going short (risk on day’s) to going long (risk off day’s) depending on which risk appetite mode the market is in. My strategy for the NZDUSD, since a double top is spotted from the October and December highs, and that for the short term I believe that the “risk on theme” will prevail before markets start to normalize, leads me with the view to Short the NZDUSD if prices stay below 0.6600 for a target at 0.6260. EURAUD UPDATE, EURAUD, Daily Given Mario Draghi’s dovish remarks during yesterday’s press conference about a review of monetary policy, weakness in the EUR has prevailed against higher yielding currencies. The AUD , as a higher yielding currency, should do well against the EUR over the long term. However, there is a risk that the EUR could bounce back in the short term if the current global risk sentiment spikes higher again. Current price remains within the upward sloping channel line , so I will look for prices to return towards the lower end of the channel before entering any new long positions. My strategy for the EURAUD pair in the short term is to play the short position for a 1.5180 target ( Target 1) , as trade 1 , ahead of potential support from buyers for a re-entry , trade 2, as a buy order around 1.5090 for a 1.5610 (Target 2). Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst & John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Date : 25th January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th January 2016. Main Macro Events This Week United States: There are a number of important indicators due, including housing figures, PMIs, durables, and trade. But the Advance Q4 GDP print (Friday) may be the most interesting amid global worries over a worldwide slowing in growth. We are forecasting slippage to a 1.3% pace (median 0.8%), from Q2’s 2.0%, with erosion in consumption, fixed investment, and an inventory drawdown weighing. The November Case-Shiller and the FHFA home price indexes are slated for Tuesday, along with January consumer confidence and the Markit services PMI. New home sales for December (Wednesday) are forecast rising to 0.500 mln. The usually volatile durable goods report (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.5% following the unchanged November print. Also on Thursday are weekly initial jobless claims and December pending home sales. Along with GDP on Friday, there’s the report on Advance trade in goods, Q4 ECI, the January Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment. Canada: In Canada, the economic calendar moves to the slow lane this week after last week’s thrill ride of dueling projections for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) announcement and the full slate of November growth data and the December CPI. We receive the final word on November’s total growth performance, with November GDP (Friday) seen expanding 0.3% after the flat reading in October. The industrial product price index (Friday) should reveal a 0.5% drop (m/m, nsa) in December after the 0.2% drop in November, as weaker energy and commodity prices weigh. Further deprecation in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar could provide a boost to the IPPI however, and is the main upside risk to our projection. Meanwhile, the IPPI is expected to post a 0.9% y/y rate of increase in December after the 0.2% drop in November. A difficult comparison with a sharply lower December of 2014 index level is to blame. The report will not challenge the BoC’s view that the underlying inflation backdrop remains tame as the economy operates below potential output. The January CFIB Business Barometer small and medium business outlook survey is due (Thursday), which will provide an early look at conditions in the new year. The Bank of Canada takes a breather from events this week. Nothing is on the docket until February 8, when Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech in Montreal. Europe: Data releases this week will bring more economic sentiment data as well as preliminary January inflation numbers. The latter should show an uptick in headline rates, but even if the overall Eurozone HICP number will rise to 0.4% y/y (med same) as expected, it would still remain at very low levels and far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. The overall EMU CPI number on Friday will be preceded by preliminary German HICP on Thursday, seen also rising to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y and preliminary French readings (Friday), expected to show a rise in the headline rate to 0.5% y/y from 0.3% y/y. We were looking for a dip in the German Ifo Business Climate reading (today) to 108.5 from 108.7 but the actual figure was even weaker and came in at 107.3. We also expect to see a decline in the ESI Economic Sentiment (Thursday) to 106.6 (med 106.5) from 106.8. Inflation projections may be revised down, but interestingly, so far growth projections have been left largely untouched, highlighting that it is the falling oil prices that is having the largest impact on price developments once again. Finally German GfK consumer confidence is seen falling to 9.3 from 9.4. With the focus firmly on future world growth GDP readings for Q4 2015 should not change the ECB’s stance significantly, but preliminary French and Spanish data on Friday will still attract some attention and we are looking for growth rates of 0.2% q/q and 0.8% q/q respectively. Data releases also include Eurozone M3 numbers on Friday, French consumption, Italian orders and business confidence, German retail sales and import price inflation. United Kingdom: The calendar this week features the January CBI surveys, for industrial trends (today) and distributive sales (Friday), the first estimate of Q4 GDP (Thursday), and the January Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday). The data are collectively likely to fit the later-rather-then-sooner view with regard to the BoE’s course to rate lift-off after a near seven-year hiatus. We expect the CBI’s industrial trends survey to dip to -10 (median same) in the headline total orders balance, down from -7 previously. The CBI’s sales survey has us anticipating an +18 outcome in the headline realized sales balance, slightly off the +19 outcome seen in the prior month. We expect Q4 GDP to lift to 0.5% q/q (median same) from 0.4% in Q3, and Gfk sentiment to dip to 1 from 2. China: China’s calendar is virtually empty, with just leading indicators that are due on Thursday. Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by CPI (Wednesday), expected to slow to a 0.2% pace in Q4 (q/q, sa) from the 0.5% rate of expansion in Q3. CPI is seen running at a 1.5% y/y pace in Q4, matching the growth rate in Q3. Core inflation measures are seen as slowing slightly: The trimmed mean is expected to slow to a 2.0% pace in Q4 from 2.1% in Q3 while the weighted median is projected at a 2.1% y/y pace in Q4 from 2.2% in Q3. Trade prices are also due (Thursday), with import prices expected to fall 1.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 1.4% gain in Q3. Export prices are projected to tumble 3.0% in Q4 after the flat reading in Q3. The RBA is on the final week of its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the new year. The modest slowing projected in total and core CPI measures for Q4 would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting. Japan: The BoJ meeting highlights Japan’s busy calendar. While we expect the Bank will remain in “wait and see mode” until March at the earliest, the slowing in its giant neighbor and the disinflationary effects of weaker oil prices and a stronger yen, could accelerate further easing moves. And this week’s data will be important for policymaker deliberations. The calendar kicks off with the December trade report, that showed country’s exports fell by 8% in December. November revised leading and coincident indices were also published today, both declining slightly from the previous number. December services PPI (Tuesday) is seen slipping to a 0.1% y/y rate from 0.2% in November. December total retail sales (Thursday) are forecast to have rebounded 0.1% y/y from a revised 1.1% drop in November, while large retailer sales are seen up 0.1% y/y from the prior revised dive of 1.6%. The remainder of the calendar is due Friday. December national CPI is expected to slow slightly to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% on an overall basis, and remain steady at 0.1% y/y on a core basis. January Tokyo CPI is seen unchanged y/y overall, matching the December outcome, and up 0.1% y/y on a core basis, also unchanged from the previous month. December unemployment should remain flat at 3.3%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is also seen steady at 1.25. December personal income is due, as is December PCE, with the latter expected to improve slightly to -2.6% y/y from November’s -2.9% reading. Preliminary December industrial production is penciled in at -0.5% y/y from -0.9%, while December housing starts are seen easing to 0.7% y/y from 1.7%. December construction orders are also on the docket. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Date : 26th January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th January 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today The Shanghai Composite has plummeted, presently showing a 6.5% loss in late PM session there, and the tech-laden Shenzhen Composite is off by 7.2%. The losses come with oil prices extending yesterday’s 5%-odd declines, with NYMEX crude down by another 2.5%-plus. Stock investors’ concerns haven’t been assuaged by the PBoC’s continued liquidity injections into the financial system, which was today CNY 440 bln via reverse repurchase agreements today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 2.35%, though some markets in the Asia-Pacific region managed gains, most notably Australia, where the ASX 200 closed with a 1.8% gain (though that was before the worse of China’s losses). ECB’s Draghi earlier spoke on the uncertain 2016 global outlook, which has been a challenge to ensure that headwinds from it do not blow the domestic recovery off course. He said the ECB is doing its part to secure a cyclical recovery by fulfilling its price stability mandate, but to turn it in to a structural recovery others have to do their part. This involves action on the fiscal front, structural reforms and reducing the debt overhang. For the ECB the key has been about credibility and the bank will meet its objective. With the markets now expecting Bazooka II in March, however, he will still have his work cut out. FOMC meeting to go ahead as planned Tuesday and Wednesday, announced the Fed. Those policymakers who will be unable to attend in person due to the blizzard can take part via a video conference. Washington, D.C. remains shut today due to the storm. Any releases scheduled for today will be postponed until the next business day government offices are open. US Producer Sentiment Remains Depressed in January. We’ve seen divergent swings in early month sentiment measures, with the Empire State plunging to a post-recession low and the Philly Fed edging up to a still negative -3.5. Their ISM-adjusted measures followed the headlines thanks to big divergent swings in shipments, though we saw the opposite divergent swings in the jobs components around weak levels. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to hold steady at just 50 for a fifth consecutive month, as the factory sector remains under pressure. US Dallas Fed manufacturing index dropped to -34.6 in January, sliding another 13.0 points after plunging 16.7 points to -21.6 in December (revised from -20.1). It’s a 13th straight month in contractionary territory, and the lowest since April 2009, as the collapse in oil prices weighs. Main Macro Events Today BoE Governor Carney speech. We look forward to Carney’s commentary on the back of our expectation the BoE to hike the repo rate by 25 bp to 0.75% in Q2 2016. This would be the first policy change since March 2009, and the first hike since July 2007. US January Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 97.0 from 96.5. This compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: upward, given the increase in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines. Confidence spiked last the winter as falling gasoline prices bolstered consumers but market volatility is now weighing on those gains. US The November Case-Shiller index for November is expected to come in at 5.7%. Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.1% in October for the 20-City index. On an annual basis, the price index is up 5.5% y/y from 5.4% y/y in September. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Date : 27th January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th January 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Australia Q4 CPI came in a little hotter than expected, rising to 0.4% q/q, above the median forecast for 0.3%. This contrasted last week’s NZ inflation for the same period, which under shoot expectations in falling to 0.1% q/q, propelling AUDNZD to a seven-week peak at 1.0870. The CNY remained steady, while Chinese December data showed industrial profits contracting in December while consumer sentiment ticked up. Moody’s said that Beijing’s policy support in the pursuit of growth in 2016 will have a credit-negative effect of postponing deleveraging and the reduction of excess capacity. German Feb GfK consumer confidence steady at 9.4, better than expected with Bloomberg consensus predicting a slight decline in the headline number. The full breakdown, available only until January, showed a further improvement in economic expectations to 4.2 rom 2.9 in the previous month, and a marked rise in the willingness to buy, despite a dip in income expectations. This is likely related to a renewed decline in the willingness to save, which is hardly a surprise considering the low interest rate environment. With the government trying to urge consumers to build up private pension portfolios, this can also have negative long term consequences, however, even if for now the numbers suggest ongoing support from consumption to domestic demand and overall growth. Price expectations remain firmly in negative territory, but are unchanged from the previous month. China industrial profits sank 2.3% y/y for the Jan-Dec period according to China’s Statistics Bureau, while December industrial profits fell 4.7% y/y due to high costs and tight liquidity curbing companies’ production and operations. Though interest rate cuts had a positive effect in reducing companies’ operating costs, weak demand caused slow growth in production and sales in 2015. That contrasted 3.3% growth in 2014. This is about par for the course after GDP growth slowed to 6.9% last year. Main Macro Events Today EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: the oil inventories are expected to have decreased to 3.452 M from 3.979M. Yesterday The Wall Street Journal reported that Petroleum Institute data showed crude oil inventory had a larger than usual weekly build. This contradicts the consensus expectation. US New Home Sales: December new home sales are out Wednesday and should reveal a 2.0% headline increase to a 500k (median 505k) pace after the 4.3% November climb to 490k. Other housing measures have been mixed for the month with starts easing to 1,149k from 1,179k in November and existing home sales climbing 5.460 mln from 4.760 mln. US New Home Sales: December new home sales are out Wednesday and should reveal a 2.0% headline increase to a 500k (median 505k) pace after the 4.3% November climb to 490k. Other housing measures have been mixed for the month with starts easing to 1,149k from 1,179k in November and existing home sales climbing 5.460 mln from 4.760 mln. AUDUSD UPDATE, FAILURE SWING IN PLAY AUDUSD, Daily The AUD trades higher today in the wake of the latest Australian CPI data which came in slightly better than forecasted. However, the AUD remains fragile and exposed to further commodities’ price swings. Technically, I spot a non-failure swing trade in play (see above chart A,B,C and the potential D target area). Current market price is above the tentative uptrend line, stochastic analysis is positive and at the time of writing price is above the 0.7015 resistance level. My conclusion supports long positions for short term traders for target 1 at 0.7090 and target 2 at 0.7130. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst & John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2016 Date : 28th January 2016. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th January 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today FOMC obviously left the funds rate range unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%. It downgraded the outlook on growth and inflation slightly, tacitly acknowledging the various risks that have cropped up since the last meeting. But the statement wasn’t necessarily as dovish as the markets had hoped. The statement did repeat that global economic and financial developments are being closely monitored. The labor market continues to improve though net exports and inventory investment slowed. Of note, the Fed dropped the phrase that it is “reasonably confident” that inflation will reach the 2% target over the medium term. And it left out the balance of risks. The tone of the statement did not take a March hike off the table (that wasn’t really going to be the case) and it gives policymakers leeway to hike again in March. The vote was a unanimous 10-0. Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.50%, matching widespread expectations. However, they took a dovish tact, saying “Some further policy easing may be required over the coming year to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range.” The evolution of the economic data is key, with the bank concluding “We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” Recall that in December, when the rate was cut 25 bps, Wheeler was more balanced, saying the bank’s inflation objective could accomplished at the current (2.50% ) rate setting, while also assuring the bank will reduce rates further if needed. As for the New Zealand dollar, he opines that “A further depreciation in the exchange rate is appropriate given the ongoing weakness in export prices.” Possible Russian coordination with OPEC was discussed at a meeting with Russian oil companies, according to a Reuters report citing the Russian Energy Ministry, which was related to unfavorable oil prices. There were similar noises yesterday about Iraq and Russia, but this seems to be adding amplitude to the oil rebound now and helping putting a bid in equities and dollar-yen. Main Macro Events Today German Prel Jan HICP is seen rising to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y, mainly due to base effects. This is likely to be mirrored by a similar rise to 0.4% y/y in the overall Eurozone number tomorrow. Still very low levels and far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. EMU ESI: We had been looking for a modest decline in the European Commission’s ESI Economic Sentiment reading for the Eurozone to 106.6 (med 106.5) from 106.8, but after the weaker than expected Ifo earlier in the week and the weak Italian business confidence numbers yesterday the risk clearly is to the downside. UK Domestic Product: the UK GDP numbers are out today and are expected to come in at 0.5% (previous 0.4%) QoQ and 1.9% (previous 2.1%) YoY. US Initial Jobless Claims: are expected to be 280k in the week-ended January 23. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,195k for the week-ended January 16. USDJPY UPDATE USDJPY, Daily The outflow of funds from China and into safe haven currencies like the JPY has helped to strengthen the Japanese Yen in recent weeks. However, JPY traders may now be beginning to shift attention to market speculation that the Bank of Japan may be potentially seeking further stimulus measures that may add some weakness to the JPY. Technically, a fibonacci retracement (December High 123.55 – January 20th low 115.90) trade could be in play for projected targets at 119.70 and 120.70. My strategy for short term traders is as long as price can stay above the 118.00 support line to hold long positions for the above fibonacci retracement targets 119.70 (Target 1) and 120.70 (Target 2). Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst & John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Date : 29th January 2016 (1st Report). CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th January 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today German retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m in December. November was revised up to 0.4% m/m from 0.2% m/m reported initially. Official retail sales numbers are volatile and subject to frequent and sharp revisions and only cover less than 50% of consumption, so the negative number is not necessarily a sign of falling consumption. On the contrary, consumer confidence remains higher, the labour market is robust and low oil prices are freeing up real disposable income, which will keep consumption and domestic demand supported. French prel Q4 GDP decelerated to 0.2% q/q from 0.3% q/q in the previous quarter, in line with expectations. The annual rate came in a tad higher than expected at 1.3% y/y. The French economy continues to be hampered by structural issues and survey indicators show that the Eurozone’s second largest economy will continue to underperform. Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduces negative interest rates. The BoJ said it will apply a rate of negative 0.1% to excess reserves that financial institutions place at the central bank with effect from February 16. The BoJ will apply a three tier system to accounts with a positive, zero, or negative interest rate on each tier. The bank’s asset purchase program was left unchanged and the BoJ did not set a lower limits on yields of bonds purchased, which means even longer dated maturities may follow short rates into negative territory. The bias remains dovish. The BoJ said the Japanese economy has recovered mostly, with underlying inflation moving higher but stressed that recently “global financial markets have been volatile against the backdrop of the further decline in crude prices and uncertainty such as over future developments in emerging and commodity exporting economies, particularly the Chinese economy”. “For these reasons, there is an increasing risk that an improvement in the business confidence of Japanese firms and conversion of the deflationary mindset might be delayed and that the underlying trend in inflation might be negatively effective”. Main Macro Events Today EU Consumer Price Index: The headline figure is out today and is expected to come in at 0.4%, a 0.2% change from the previous number. US GDP: The first release on Q4 GDP should reveal a 1.0% (median 0.8%) headline which would follow 2.0% in Q3 and 3.9% in Q2. We expect a $40 bln inventory subtraction coupled with a flat rate in fixed investment spending to hold down the headline. Consumption spending is expected to slow as well, although less dramatically to a 1.9% clip from 3.0% in Q3. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The second release on January Michigan Sentiment is out today and should reveal a 93.5 (median 93.1) headline following 93.3 in the first release and 92.6 in December. Other confidence measures have improved for the month with the IBD/TIPP poll ticking up to 47.3 from 47.2 and consumer confidence rising to 98.1 from 96.3. Apart from this, Michigan Sentiment displays a tendency towards upward revisions in the second release. US Chicago PMI: January Chicago PMI is out on Friday and is expected at 44.0 from 42.9 in December and 48.7 in November. Already released measures of January producer sentiment have weakened and the remaining releases look poised to remain depressed in January. We now expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to fall to a cycle-low 49 after holding at 50 since September. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date : 29th January 2016 (Second Report). CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th January 2016. USDCAD EXPECTED PRICE BOUNCE USDCAD, Daily The CAD has been gaining strength in recent days as crude oil prices move higher following speculation that oil producers will reduce supplies. Also, providing some support for the CAD is the fact that the BoC left rates unchanged when the markets were forecasting a cut by 25 basis points. CAD traders for today should keep an eye on today’s Canadian economic calendar since on tap are the November GDP and Dec Product price Index. Also, keep an eye out for the U.S. Advance GDP q/q data released later today; this could also impact the USDCAD volatility for Friday. Technically, for the USDCAD I am expecting a price bounce in the wake of the corrective sell off since the pair hit a multiyear high near the 1.4680’s last week. USDCAD traders may look to enter into long positions within the “Price bounce zone” ((B1) above chart) between 1.3815 – 1.3970, for targets within the “Lower top zone” ((T2?) above chart) 1.4340 – 1.4430. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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