Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

USD/CAD draws indecision candle ahead of overnight rate

The USD/CAD currency pair yesterday drew a Doji candle with long shadows on the top and bottom lines near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The price formed a high of 1.45212, a low of 143792 open 1.44341, and closed at 1.44326. This temporarily halted the previous two-day bullish trend.

The US jobs data released yesterday, JOLTS Job Openings by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.74M higher than forecast 7.65M from the previously revised 7.51M. Hires held steady at 5.4M, and total layoffs were little changed at 5.3M. Although job openings were slightly changed but decreased by 728K over the year.

The increase in these data figures somewhat supported the strengthening of the USD. The trade war initiated by United States President Donald Trump against Canada is the reason for the turbulence in the USD currency, including the USDCAD pair lately. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. He also imposed additional duties on goods from China. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has threatened to take action in response to Trump's policies. Trudeau said retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports would go into effect immediately, with more to follow.

The trade war continues. Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada to 50 percent in response to the Ontario government imposing a 25 percent tariff on electricity exported to the US.

Today, investors will focus on the Bank of Canada, which is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, which is expected to be cut by 25 basis points from 3.0% to 2.75%. In addition, investors will also pay attention to the BoC statement,t which may provide subtle clues on Canadian dollar currency policy.

In the US, today will also release CPI data which is an important inflation data used by the Fed to determine their monetary policy. Core CPI is expected to fall 0.3% from the previous 0.4%, monthly CPI is also expected to be 0.3% from the previous 0.5% and annual CPI is expected to be 2.9% from the previous 0.3%.

[Zeologic]

EUR/USD hovers amid moderate US inflation

After hitting a high of 1.09473 on Tuesday, the EURUSD pair drifted lower after the release of US inflation data. Yesterday, the EURUSD price formed a high of 1.09307 and a low of 1.08757, closing at 1.08874. The price drew a bearish candle with a higher low of the previous candle near the upper band line.

Yesterday's US inflation data release showed moderate growth. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index slowed sharply to 2.8% year-over-year from an estimated 2.9% from a previously revised 3.0%. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January. The index for all goods except food and energy increased 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.4 percent increase in January.

A weaker-than-anticipated rise in US inflation is expected to boost market expectations that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will cut interest rates at its May policy meeting. Meanwhile, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's target interest rate is projected to be unchanged at its March 19 meeting with a 98.0% probability of leaving the rate at 4.25%-4.50%.

The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the US dollar against six major currencies has shown poor performance in recent weeks due to Trump's policies that are expected to increase inflation, which ultimately reduces household purchasing power. There are even concerns that the US recession will increase due to the impact of Trump's policies.

Today, investors will wait for the release of US PPI data and unemployment claims, which are also the basis for the Fed's considerations in taking their next monetary policy. This month's core PPI is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 0.3%, and the general PPI is 0.3% from the previous 0.4%. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase by 226k from the previous 221k.