Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

WTI oil correction after two-day sharp decline

Yesterday's oil price drew a small bearish candle with a shadow on the top of the candle. Oil price formed a high of 65.52, a low of 64.10, and a close of 64.48. The correction in oil prices briefly halted a two-day-long decline after the Middle East ceasefire.

The ceasefire in the Middle East has eased concerns about oil supply disruptions, keeping the price of a barrel for the US benchmark WTI below $65.00. Although the ceasefire may be fragile because Iran continues its peaceful nuclear program, while Israel accuses it of developing nuclear weapons.

Iran's oil supply capacity seems unaffected by the Israeli bombing, and the threat of a blockade on the key Strait of Hormuz has been averted for now. All these circumstances have contributed to bringing prices back to pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, investor concerns about demand remain as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing. Consumer confidence deteriorated in June, confirming the gloomy picture. Meanwhile, Powell’s hawkish stance in his congressional testimony on Tuesday added to the downside pressure on prices.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not signaled any imminent rate cuts as he said the risk of higher inflation stemming from Trump’s tariffs remains high. The Fed’s tighter policy is weighing on economic activity and oil demand, adding to the downside pressure on prices.

The latest data from the EIA showed a drawdown of 5.836 million barrels for the week ended June 20, far exceeding expectations for a modest 0.6 million barrel decline. The supply drawdown signals a tightening of supply conditions amid steady summer demand.

The Eurozone economy is stagnant, while China's recovery has not yet been achieved, the plan of OPEC+ countries to continue to increase supply may cause an oversupply of Oil.

Investors today will focus on the final US GDP data, which is estimated to have contracted -0.2% the same as the previous quarter. US Unemployment Claims are estimated to slightly decrease by 244k from the previous revision of 245k.

[Zeologic]

USD/CNH steady in the range of 7.1678 amid Yuan campaign

On Friday, the offshore Yuan pair USDCNH drew a bullish candle with a slight shadow on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.1748, a low of 7.1598, and a close of 7.1707. It is steady between the middle and lower bands of the contracting Bollinger bands.

Amid the USD challenges, China is trying to seize the moment to globalize the Yuan as doubts grow about the USD. According to Bloomberg, Chinese policymakers see erratic US decision-making and geopolitical tensions as the most favorable backdrop in recent years to promote the yuan. The move is aimed at facilitating trade and opening up China's financial markets and embedding the yuan deeper in investment flows.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng envisioned a new global currency order in which the US dollar plays a smaller role and the Yuan plays a major role in global capital flows. He plans to set up an international operations center for the digital yuan in Shanghai.

In 2025, the Chinese government is targeting 5% growth, and in the first quarter recorded a 5.4% year-on-year expansion, higher than the 5.1% expectation. However, official annual growth is estimated at 4.5% to 5% by institutions such as the OECD (4.7%), Goldman (4.0%), and Moody's (3.8%), which projected a slightly lower figure.

In the economic sector, industrial and export performance declined in May due to weak demand and tariff pressures. The property sector is also still weak; the Evergrande & Country Garden crisis was exacerbated by liquidation to large-scale restructuring, and this sector is a major drag on growth. Household consumption is -39% of GDP, but stimulus and trade-in have boosted consumer spending. PPI is negative, and consumer inflation remains low; there is a risk of deflation due to weak domestic demand.

Trade tensions with the US continue to be an external and geopolitical challenge. However, on the other hand, energy diversification has helped reduce vulnerability to global supply disruptions.

China's long-term challenges include an aging population, a drastically declining ratio of workers to retirees, and hampered productivity. Suboptimal services in the transformation of the economy from industrial exports to consumption and dependence on foreign technology, especially semiconductors, continue even though the Made in China 2025 program has shown success in high technology such as EV, AI, solar, etc.

Today, CFLP (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing) will release Manufacturing PMI data with expectations of 49.6 from the previous revision of 49.5.

[Zeologic]

Gold prices rise as global policymakers gather for ECB forum in Sintra

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, drawing a bullish candle with a small shadow on the top of the candle crossing the 50-day moving average from the bottom. Gold prices formed a high of 3357 low of 3301, and a closing of 3337.

The rise in gold prices extended Monday's gains after a sharp decline on Friday. The rise in gold prices also coincided with a meeting of global policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, which took place in Sintra, Portugal. ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were speaking at the forum on monetary policy.

The policy panel at the ECB forum in central banks is a rare opportunity for the world's leading central bankers to offer a critical opportunity for markets to assess the direction of global monetary policy.

The focus of Powell's remarks at the forum was his comments on the face of increasing pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut interest rates in July. Powell's hawkish stance was highlighted by his statement, "It's all going to be data-dependent, and we're going to evaluate that from meeting to meeting," Powell said. This shows the Fed's cautious stance in cutting interest rates despite pressure from President Trump.

Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing data and JOLTs data that beat expectations limited the US dollar's losses, which slightly paused gold prices to continue their rise. The market did not seem to respond much to the $4.5T tax cut bill that passed the Senate. Senators voted 51-50 to pass the bill.

The US JOLTS and ISM manufacturing data that were higher than expectations showed signs of improvement that might provide an overview of the next data on how the Fed will act at the next meeting.

Meanwhile, the current geopolitical risk is that Iran and Israel are in a ceasefire, but news of the war in Gaza continues. Some political observers say the Iran and Israel ceasefire is fragile, allowing war to break out again.

Today, investors will focus on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, which is expected to rise to 99k from the previous revision of 37k. This data often gets a market response because it measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the agricultural industry and government.
 

[Zeologic]

USD/CHF decline eases ahead of Swiss CPI

The USDCHF pair on Wednesday's market session formed a bullish small-bodied candle, easing the decline of the previous days. The price formed a high of 0.79411 low of 0.79031, and closed at 0.79154. The price has entered the oversold zone according to the RSI indicator, which points to level 27.

US data released on Wednesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, with negative nuances much lower than expected, is technically less supportive of the US dollar. However, DXY recovered slightly after dropping to a low of 96.377, rising to a high of 97.152, and closing at 96.810. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private employers lost 33,000 jobs in June. Job losses in the professional and business services sector, as well as education and health services, were the main causes of the decline. The leisure and hospitality sector, as well as manufacturing, showed an increase.

In addition, concerns about the health of the US fiscal and uncertainty about tariffs remain a significant burden on the recovery of the USD. The US dollar is still facing market concerns about the impact of Trump's tax law on US government debt and the lack of progress on trade deals. Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to the possibility of increased inflation stemming from Trump's tariffs.

The SNB currently maintains low interest rates, but further appreciation of the CHF could slow the economy. SNB board member Attilio Zanetti suggested that negative interest rates remain an option if needed to maintain price stability, adding that the central bank still has “ample instruments” even though the policy rate is near zero. While such steps are not imminent, the statement emphasized the SNB’s flexible stance and its openness to act if economic conditions worsen.

The IMF cut Switzerland’s 2025 GDP projection to 1.3% from 1.7% previously due to risks from geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and the Swiss franc remaining strong. Growth is expected to slow further to 1.2% in 2026.

Today, investors will focus on Swiss CPI due out by the Federal Statistical Office, which is expected to be steady at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous revision. The US will also release some economic data today. Average Hourly Earnings m/m are forecast to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%. Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to fall 111k from a previously revised 139k. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Unemployment Claims are forecast to rise 240k from 236k.

The Swiss Franc is strengthening its position as a safe-haven currency due to the stable Swiss economy, growing +0.7% in the first quarter. The strengthening of the Swiss Franc amidst declining investor confidence in the USD as a safe-haven amid President Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to increase inflation.

[Zeologic]

Silver price rises reflecting increasing demand

The price of the XAGUSD pair representing Silver drew a bullish candle near the upper band line with a small body. The price formed a high of 37,215, a low of 36,913, a close of 37,148. The price movement above the MA 50 and MA 200 reflects bullish sentiment.

Referring to the fundamental analysis of Silver, the price increase was triggered by increasing demand and a supply deficit where global demand exceeded supply for the fifth consecutive year. Demand comes from industrial sectors such as EV, AI, electronics, and solar power.

On the other hand, geopolitical risk is the reason investors are looking for safe-haven assets, including Silver. Geopolitical tensions have driven large fund flows into Silver ETFs, reaching an inflow of US $ 1.6 billion in June.

Raising Silver prices are also driven by a weakening USD and dovish Fed expectations. Weak US employment data in June increased the chances of a US interest rate cut which could lower yields and support precious metals such as gold and silver which do not provide yields.

Some analysts are targeting medium to long-term bulls anticipating silver prices to reach $38-$40 by the end of 2025 and even up to $50 in 2026-2027, depending on the supply deficit trend.

From the fundamental summary, silver prices are expected to remain in an upward trend. However, the current Silver price is at the historical resistance level of the previous price in mid-June. If gold manages to break out, it is expected to rise higher.

Today in the economic calendar, there are no high-impact news releases. Some news of concern is the BRICS Summit involving BRICS members such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and other members.

[Zeologic]

NZD/USD moves flat near 50 MA ahead of interest rates

The New Zealand Dollar yesterday formed a doji candle with a long wick on the top of the candle with the opening and closing prices close together. The price formed a high of 0.60343 low of 0.59791 closing of 0.59956.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) halted its advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as the Greenback strengthened after renewed tariff threats and an extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs. US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for reciprocal tariffs to August 1 from July 9, providing room for further negotiations but keeping market sentiment cautious.

Donald Trump's uncertain stance has contributed to global uncertainty, although the US Dollar Index's performance rose to a high of 97.838 yesterday but closed lower at 97.518 below the EMA 20 line. The USD's performance is still under pressure as seen from the EMA 20 indicator which draws a descending channel above the current value. Uncertainty in trade relations with several countries has resulted in weaker USD performance due to declining investor confidence.

Bearish pressure on the USD gives room for the New Zealand dollar to strengthen, although there is still a cautious sentiment towards global trade risks.

Today the New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) will announce interest rates. The market anticipates that the RBNZ will hold interest rates at 3.25% after a major cut of 225 bps since last August. From other fundamentals, New Zealand's first-quarter growth reached +0.8% and inflation was stable in the target range of 2.5%, which shows that the NZD is still supported by a relatively neutral or dovish monetary stance.

However, the NZD is still sensitive to global risks, including US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a commodity currency, the NZD tends to strengthen when global sentiment is positive and moves to risk-on assets, conversely weakening when a fight for safety occurs.

In the short term, the risk conditions and DXY movements are the main catalysts if the USD continues to weaken, it is expected that NZDUSD can reach 0.605-0.608, conversely if negative sentiment appears NZD may fall to 0.595 - 0.600.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin price attempts to break the $110,000 price level

BTCUSD on Wednesday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of $111,956, a low of $108,336, and a close of $110,716 on FXOpen's platform. Wednesday's rise continued Tuesday's small gain. The impact of this rise is that the Bollinger bands widened slightly, reflecting higher volatility.

There are several points in Bitcoin analysis today that investors are focusing on. The first concerns institutional adoption and regulation. Large fund flows into spot ETFs are projected to reach US$49 billion by July 2025. The Trump administration established a strategic Bitcoin Reserve fund in March 2025, adding formal recognition to Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Large corporations like MicroStrategy reported unrealized gains of US$14 billion from holdings of approximately 597,000 BTC, demonstrating long-term confidence.

Other fundamental factors include on-chain metrics and supply. The drop in liquidity, with over 14.7 million BTC remaining unmoved for over 155 days, created a supply squeeze. Trading activity remained stable, with average daily volume reaching US$5.9 billion year-over-year, but weakened slightly in July. Medium-term holders of three- to ten-year positions realized billions of dollars in profits, a sign of distribution and confidence.

Macro and geopolitical factors, including increasing stablecoin legislation and crypto regulation in the US, are encouraging legal clarity and long-term adoption. The easing of geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran war has provided positive momentum for crypto market sentiment. The Fed is stabilizing; if interest rates are lowered, this could strengthen riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Despite strong flows, exchange trading activity has weakened somewhat, and low volume could trigger a correction if there is no new buying momentum. Regulatory risks also remain, although the majority of positive signals suggest a sudden change is still possible. Bitcoin's inherent volatility remains high, and corrections are possible even during a long-term bullish trend.

Although Bitcoin's weekly gain remains low at 1.29%, the fear and greed index, which rose 2 points from 50 to 52, indicates new confidence has arisen, although it remains neutral.