Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

GBPUSD Price Action and Fundamental Outlook Today

The GBPUSD currency pair—widely known as “Cable”—is one of the most liquid and actively traded pairs in the forex market, reflecting the economic dynamics between the UK and the US. Today’s fundamental landscape is dominated by high-impact US events, including speeches from key Federal Reserve figures such as Chair Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, and others, which are likely to provide critical forward guidance on interest rate policy; any hawkish tone could strengthen the US Dollar. Additionally, traders are closely watching US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices Paid, and Construction Spending data—leading indicators of economic health that could impact USD demand if actual figures exceed forecasts. On the UK side, attention turns to the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the Nationwide House Price Index, which offer insight into economic activity and housing market trends. If UK data holds firm and the Fed commentary remains measured, GBPUSD could gain bullish momentum; however, stronger US data or more hawkish Fed signals may trigger renewed USD strength, pressuring the pair lower. Overall, today's fundamental events are pivotal for shaping short-term direction in GBPUSD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the technical front, the GBPUSD pair remains in a long-term bullish trend, supported by a clearly defined ascending trendline visible on the 4-hour chart. However, since May 27th, the pair has experienced a short-term pullback, with price gradually moving lower and recently entering the Ichimoku cloud, which has thinned and shows a flat lower band—suggesting potential consolidation or weakness in bullish momentum. The current price is testing both the Ichimoku support zone and the ascending trendline, making this a key decision area; a bounce could confirm ongoing bullish structure, while a break below may signal deeper correction. Volume has been moderate, showing uncertainty among market participants. The RSI is at 45.52, reflecting mild bearish sentiment without hitting oversold levels. The MACD is slightly bearish, with histogram and lines just below zero, indicating waning momentum. Traders should closely monitor today’s price action in correlation with the fundamental outcomes for confirmation of the next major move. 

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Nikkei Price Action Signals Potential Trendline Bounce

The Nikkei 225, often referred to simply as "the Nikkei," is Japan's primary stock market index, widely traded and analyzed for insights into Japan's economic health. Today's fundamental focus for Nikkei traders revolves around the Bank of Japan's monetary base announcement, the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction, and crucial insights from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech. Given that an increased monetary base typically strengthens the Yen, a higher-than-expected announcement could weigh negatively on the Nikkei by elevating currency pressures and potentially tightening monetary policy. Additionally, bond yields and bid-to-cover ratios will offer significant indications of investor sentiment towards Japan's economic outlook, influencing Nikkei price action directly.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, analyzing the Nikkei H4 chart reveals recent bearish price action after failing to breach the resistance level around 38,000. The price has since retreated to test the ascending trendline support near 37,600, a pivotal point for determining short-term market sentiment. The Bollinger Bands indicate potential consolidation, tightening around current price levels, signaling reduced volatility and potential imminent breakouts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the neutral 50-level, indicating balanced momentum and caution among traders. Should price sustain above the trendline, bulls may retest the resistance; conversely, a confirmed breakdown below could accelerate bearish momentum, targeting lower support zones.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD Faces Key Data and Technical Tests

The EURUSD currency pair, commonly referred to as the "Fiber" in forex trading circles, represents the economic interplay between the Eurozone and the United States. The pair remains highly sensitive to a series of key economic indicators and central bank communications. This morning, Eurozone data focused on services sector performance, with Spanish Services PMI at 52.8 (slightly below the previous 53.4), Italian Services PMI at 52.1 versus 52.9 prior, and stable readings from France and Germany’s final Services PMIs at 47.4 and 47.2 respectively, culminating in an overall Eurozone Final Services PMI of 48.9. These figures suggest modest expansion in some regions but ongoing contraction in others, likely weighing on the Euro. Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change releasing a solid 111K compared to 62K prior, alongside speeches from FOMC members Bostic and Cook, which may provide important clues on Fed policy direction. Additional data including the US Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories will further influence USD demand. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book at 7:00 pm will offer qualitative insight into economic conditions across the US. Given this mix, stronger US employment data and hawkish Fed rhetoric could boost the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on EURUSD, while softer Eurozone PMI readings add to the pair’s current challenges. Overall, today’s fundamental events are crucial for determining short-term momentum in EURUSD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the technical front, the EURUSD pair is currently exhibiting a cautious bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The price is supported by a well-defined ascending trendline, which has held through recent pullbacks, indicating underlying buying interest. The pair is trading slightly above the 100-period moving average, which acts as dynamic support around the 1.12869 level. The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low at 1.07363 to the high near 1.15700 show that the price is hovering just above the 23.6% retracement at 1.13725, a critical short-term support level. The stochastic oscillator is positioned in the mid-range but trending downward, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase in the near term. Overall, the EURUSD remains in an uptrend but is approaching a key decision zone near the 1.1370 level; a strong bounce here would reinforce bullish prospects, while a break below the trendline and Fibonacci support could invite a deeper correction toward the 38.2% retracement near 1.1250. Traders should watch for confirmation from price action and stochastic signals to gauge the next directional move.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

BTCUSD Technical Outlook as Price Crosses Below Cloud

The BTCUSD forex pair, commonly referred to as "Bitcoin," is one of the most widely traded cryptocurrency pairs, offering traders the chance to speculate on Bitcoin's value relative to the US Dollar. As a highly volatile and speculative asset, it has garnered attention for its rapid price movements and potential for high returns. Today's economic calendar highlights several important indicators that could influence the USD, which in turn may impact Bitcoin's price action. The release of job cut announcements and initial jobless claims are key indicators of the labor market's health and could significantly influence the USD's strength. A stronger-than-expected labor report might strengthen the USD, while weak data could lead to a depreciation of the greenback, thus potentially supporting Bitcoin's price against the dollar.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the BTC-USD H4 chart, the price has been undergoing a correction after reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,970 on May 22, 2025. Following this peak, the market entered a bearish phase, with the price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, which has turned red, signaling a potential downtrend. Additionally, the lower line of the cloud is moving downward, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The volume candles indicate a decline in buying interest, with lower volume during upward movements suggesting a lack of strong bullish support. The RSI, currently at 44.66, is hovering near neutral territory, indicating no clear overbought or oversold conditions. However, the MACD is showing a bearish crossover, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Traders should monitor these indicators closely, as they point to possible further weakness in the BTC/USD pair. 

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 

[Capitalcore]

US30 Price Action and Technical Outlook on H4 Chart

The US30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or simply the Dow, is a key benchmark index representing 30 major U.S. companies and is widely traded in the forex market as a CFD under the US30 forex pair. Often referred to as a barometer of U.S. economic health, the Dow’s movements are closely tied to major economic news and data releases. Today’s fundamental analysis centers on a series of high-impact U.S. economic indicators, including labor inflation, employment change (Non-Farm Payrolls), and the unemployment rate—data that are critical in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations. While the U.S. Treasury’s semiannual currency report is tentatively scheduled, its potential implications on global exchange rate policies and any accusations of currency manipulation could influence forex flows and risk sentiment. If employment data comes in stronger than forecast, this could pressure equities due to renewed rate hike fears, while weaker labor data may support a more dovish outlook, boosting the US30. These developments make today's session particularly sensitive for Dow Jones price action, especially as traders await direction from upcoming figures and Fed sentiment.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical standpoint on the H4 chart, the US30 – Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading in a horizontal range between the support zone of 42238 and resistance around 43194, with price movement alternating between bullish and bearish candles. Over the last few days, price action has lacked strong directional movement but remains in a broader bullish trend that has recently slowed down. Importantly, price continues to trade above the Ichimoku cloud, which remains green but has become thinner, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Previous candles tested the upper edge of the cloud but failed to penetrate it, while the most recent candles remain above it, suggesting dynamic support is still intact. Volume bars show a mixed outlook with no clear accumulation or distribution trend, although a slight uptick in green bars hints at buyers attempting to regain control. The MACD and histogram indicate weakening momentum, with a possible convergence forming that could lead to a short-term pullback unless fresh bullish volume confirms a breakout. Overall, the Dow is holding its bullish structure on the 4H time frame, but traders should watch closely for confirmation of direction around current levels.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore