Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EURGBP Analysis: Bearish Momentum in the H4 Chart Review

The EURGBP currency pair, often nicknamed "Chunnel" due to the financial and economic link between Europe and the UK, represents the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP). The pair’s news outlook is heavily influenced by economic data releases and political developments in the Eurozone and the UK. The interplay between the ECB and BoE policies, combined with fluctuating economic sentiment, makes Chunnel an essential pair for both intraday and long-term traders.
Today’s EUR/GBP fundamental analysis highlights key data releases that could drive the pair’s price. For GBP, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Retail Sales, and Flash PMI are due. Stronger-than-expected consumer confidence or retail sales figures would bolster the pound, signaling robust consumer spending—a critical GDP driver. Similarly, PMI data over 50 would indicate business optimism, potentially strengthening GBP. On the EUR side, manufacturing and services PMI data are critical, as numbers above 50 would indicate economic expansion. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech could provide forward guidance on monetary policy, influencing EUR movements. With both currencies facing impactful data, traders should brace for volatility.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart of EURGBP indicates the pair’s bearish trend, with the price trading within a descending channel. The MACD histogram shows negative momentum, with the signal line staying below the MACD line, reinforcing EURGBP’s bearish outlook. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers near 46, suggesting neutral to mild bearish momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The descending channel provides resistance around 0.8350 and support near 0.8280, outlining a confined trading range. The pair’s price movements within this channel reflect sustained selling pressure, though a breakout could signal a potential trend reversal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 

[Capitalcore]

NZD/USD Trends Ahead of New Zealand News Impact

The NZD/USD currency pair, often nicknamed the “Kiwi,” represents the New Zealand Dollar versus the United States Dollar and is a highly liquid forex pair. It’s influenced by the economic fundamentals of both New Zealand and the US. Today, key news from Statistics New Zealand includes Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data, both primary indicators of consumer spending. These reports, released quarterly, play a crucial role in gauging consumer confidence and economic strength. Additionally, the Overseas Merchandise Trade figures, highlighting the balance of trade, will provide insight into New Zealand's export health. Strong data releases above forecasts can bolster the NZD, potentially reducing bearish pressures on the Kiwi.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart indicates a recent bearish trend; however, the last five candles show signs of recovery, with four bullish candles, including the latest one as the market reopened for the week. The current price is attempting to break into the Ichimoku red cloud, which has narrowed—a potential sign of weakening resistance. The NZD USD price is currently between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels, showing a modest recovery. The Williams %R indicator is at -38.51, leaning towards an overbought zone but still providing room for upward momentum. The bullish sentiment in recent candles suggests buyers might be testing resistance levels in the cloud, potentially eyeing further upside if upcoming news supports NZD strength.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 

Edited November 25 by Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EUR/USD H4 Analysis: Bearish Trend Prevails Below Ichimoku Cloud

The EUR/USD forex pair, often referred to as "Fiber," is the most traded currency pair in the world, representing the economic interplay between the Eurozone and the United States. The EURUSD prices serve as a barometer for global economic stability, influenced by key macroeconomic factors and central bank policies. As the week unfolds, traders are focusing on high-impact U.S. economic data such as the GDP second release, durable goods orders, and weekly unemployment claims, which hold the potential to drive the dollar's momentum.
Today's Fiber Fundamental analysis, including the U.S. GDP second release, is anticipated to confirm robust economic growth, signaling continued strength in the U.S. economy. Durable goods orders, particularly excluding transportation, could provide further clues about manufacturing health and production outlooks. If these indicators outperform forecasts, it would reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, boosting the dollar and exerting bearish pressure on EUR/USD. On the European side, GfK consumer confidence data will gauge sentiment in the Eurozone. With the Eurozone's economic backdrop remaining relatively muted, traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of these events.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 EUR/USD chart exhibits a clear bearish trend, as indicated by the price trading below the Ichimoku cloud. This EURUSD bearish bias aligns with the downward-sloping price channel, suggesting continued selling pressure in the near term. The RSI indicator is currently at 48.62, residing in the neutral zone, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. However, it also highlights the possibility of a consolidation phase before the next significant move.
The Ichimoku cloud's resistance near the 1.0500 level acts as a significant barrier for bullish attempts, while the price's failure to reclaim this level underscores bearish control. With the RSI failing to break above 50, buyers appear hesitant. A potential breakdown below 1.0440 could open the door for further downside toward the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.0360. Conversely, a breakout above the cloud and channel resistance could trigger a short-term reversal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EURAUD H4 Technical Setup with Fundamental Drivers

The EURAUD forex pair, often referred to as the "Euro Aussie," represents the exchange rate of the Euro (EUR) to the Australian Dollar (AUD). This pair combines the stability of the Eurozone economy with the commodity-driven volatility of the Australian Dollar, making it a dynamic instrument for traders.
Today, the European consumer inflation data, including the German and Eurozone CPI releases, will dominate market sentiment. Higher-than-expected inflation numbers can strengthen the Euro as traders anticipate a more hawkish stance from the ECB. Conversely, dovish implications could arise from subdued CPI figures. On the Australian side, the RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s speech could influence sentiment, particularly if she signals a divergence in policy tone. The upcoming private capital expenditure report is another key release, with strong figures likely boosting AUD strength. With inflation and monetary policies as central themes, EURAUD could experience heightened volatility during today’s trading sessions.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EURAUD pair on the H4 chart has shown bearish momentum recently, with seven out of the last twenty candles being bearish. A bullish reversal is in progress as the price breaks above the Ichimoku Cloud—a bullish signal. The Ichimoku Cloud has turned green but remains thin, reflecting weak bullish momentum. The price is currently trading between the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels. While it briefly touched the 0.5 level, it failed to break through. A successful breach of this level could see the price rally toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level, with potential to extend toward the 1.0 level. However, the Williams %R indicator signals overbought conditions, cautioning against aggressive bullish positions. Traders should monitor for a confirmed breakout or a rejection at these resistance levels.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 

[Capitalcore]

EURCAD Analysis: MACD Crossover Supports Bullish Momentum

The EUR/CAD currency pair, sometimes referred to as "Euro-Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the Euro, the official currency of the Eurozone, and the Canadian Dollar, the official currency of Canada. The EURCAD prices are often seen as a barometer for economic trends between the Eurozone and Canada, two major global economies. As traders look to assess the relative strength of these currencies, EURCAD provides insight into the broader health of the global economy, driven by both regions' economic data and geopolitical factors.
The Eurozone's economic landscape today sees a mixed bag of data, with several reports expected to have an impact on EUR value. Notably, Eurozone retail sales and CPI data, as well as inflation reports from countries like Germany and France, could offer signals about future ECB monetary policy. As consumer spending and inflation in the Eurozone remain key drivers of future ECB rate decisions, any positive surprises in retail sales or inflation figures could push the EUR higher. In contrast, Canada is awaiting GDP data which, if stronger than expected, could provide support for the Canadian Dollar. The performance of CAD may be further influenced by oil price fluctuations, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The potential for stronger economic growth in Canada relative to the Eurozone could weigh on EUR/CAD’s forecast today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the EURCAD H4 chart, we get a look at the Euro-Loonie’s technical outlook where the Parabolic SAR is currently signaling the pair’s bullish trend, with its dots positioned below the price action. This suggests that the momentum remains positive, indicating that EUR may continue to outperform CAD in the short term. Meanwhile, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is showing a bullish crossover, with the MACD line moving above the signal line, reinforcing the idea of EURCAD’s upward price action. This combination of indicators suggests that EURCAD may continue to rise, particularly if the price maintains its position above key support levels. Traders should watch for any reversal signals or sudden shifts in momentum, particularly if upcoming Eurozone or Canadian data surprises the market.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore