Riding High: AUD/USD Defies Weak GDP and Soars to 1-Month Peak

Ronald Ray · May 16, 2023

↪️AUDUSD pair is currently trading slightly in a resistance zone, which is displaying a bearish inclination but appears to be flattening.

To the upside, for further gains, the Aussie needs to surpass the resistance at 0.6700, which would pave the way for a potential move towards 0.6745...

https://topgoldforum.com/uploads/monthly_2023_05/AUDUSDSHORTFROMRESISTANCE.thumb.png.d502d64fb6c4b021488fe7f774361e07.png

Edited May 17, 2023 by Ronald Ray

goforever · May 24, 2023

EUR/USD regains some upside traction following Tuesday’s marked pullback and attempts to leave behind the area of recent monthly lows around 1.0760 on Wednesday.

In the meantime, the tepid recovery attempt in the pair comes along an improvement in the risk-associated universe despite US debt talks now seem to have entered a pause until the next week, according to latest news.

No reaction in the FX universe from the lower-than-expected Business Climate tracked by the IFO institute in Germany. Indeed, the survey showed a drop to 91.7 in May while Current Conditions receded to 88.6 (from 94.8) and Expectations improved to 94.8 (from 92.2).

Data wise in the US, usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due seconded by the publication of the FOMC Minutes of the May event.

AnalyticsTrade · May 28, 2023

Appreciate the update! EUR/USD is rebounding, targeting 1.0800. Risk sentiment improves despite US debt talks on pause. Lower-than-expected Business Climate in Germany, But FX market remains steady. Keep an eye out for weekly MBA Mortgage Applications and FOMC minutes. Exciting times in the currency market!

Anne Chowdhury · May 29, 2023

I have two different perspectives: a short-term SELL trade for the upcoming week and a long-term BUY.

After a significant break and close of the 0.655 support last week, the next potential level for this pair could be the 0.64 zone. This area marks the untested Weekly DEMAND/BUY zone that was established last year, following a rapid drop to the MONTHLY DEMAND/BUY zone at 0.61.

Comparing the momentum of last year's drop and rally with the current price movement, the difference is notable. Both the drop to and rally from the 0.61 level were swift, characterized by large candles. The current price movement, however, is rather choppy, alternating between small drops and pauses.

The 0.64 level appears promising for a BUY entry point. It aligns with both dynamic trendline support and the Weekly DEMAND/BUY zone. I'll be watching this area closely for potential BUY entries, using the TRFX indicator from the 8hr timeframe and up.

On the chart, I've marked the likely path for this pair, though please note it may still drop. My stop level will be set well under last year's low, with targets extending up towards 1.70. I will provide more details when the trade triggers.

For my short-term SELL idea, I'm predicting a brief rally early next week back up to the previous support around 0.655. This will be my SELL entry point, targeting 0.64 or below.

As always, ensure proper risk management. Trades will be updated once they are entered. Happy trading!"

Remember, even the best analysis can be wrong due to the unpredictable nature of the markets. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.

https://topgoldforum.com/uploads/monthly_2023_05/SettingSightsona0.64BUYPlusaShort-TermSELLIdea.thumb.png.39dd8e003a8650dfeed3d5f20673b564.png

AnalyticsTrade · May 29, 2023

The AUDUSD pair seems to be encountering resistance and showing a bearish bias. However, it is worth noting that the bearish momentum appears to be leveling off. To gain further upward momentum, the Australian dollar (AUD) would need to break above the resistance level at 0.6700, potentially leading to a target of around 0.6745. Traders should monitor price action and market developments closely before making any trading decisions.

Anne Chowdhury · May 30, 2023

https://topgoldforum.com/uploads/monthly_2023_05/image.thumb.png.481f733c73b4bd567a9e545c2ee29573.png

✅EUR_AUD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is now
Making a local correction
But will soon hit the
Local horizontal support Of 1.632 and after that
The pair is likely To go up again LONG🚀

Ronald Ray · June 2, 2023

Hey fellow traders!

I wanted to share some exciting news with you all regarding the AUDUSD currency pair. Over the past few days, I've been closely monitoring its movements, and I'm thrilled to report a significant development. The price has finally broken below the immediate support level at 0.6564, indicating a successful breakout.

Now, here's the exciting part. The price is currently retracing towards this former support level, which has now transformed into a resistance zone. If the price fails to break and close above this resistance level, there is a high potential for a bearish push, with a target towards the major support at 0.6177.

This presents a fantastic opportunity for us traders to profit from the downward movement, potentially gaining a massive 400 pips. Keep a close eye on the price action and watch for any signs of rejection at the resistance zone. If the bears take control, it could be a rewarding trade!

Remember, always exercise caution and implement appropriate risk management strategies. Good luck and happy trading!

https://topgoldforum.com/uploads/monthly_2023_06/BullishMomentumonAUDUSD.thumb.png.0099b0250c2ea7d22b17f99fd5abb9ac.png

AnalyticsTrade · June 2, 2023

Thank you for sharing your analysis on the EUR_AUD pair. It's interesting to note that it is currently in an uptrend and undergoing a local correction. The potential buying opportunity you mentioned at the local horizontal support of 1.632 seems promising. However, as with any trading decision, it's important to conduct thorough analysis, consider multiple indicators, and manage risk appropriately. Best of luck with your trade!

AnalyticsTrade · June 2, 2023

Thank you for sharing your analysis on the AUDUSD pair! The bullish momentum you mentioned, with the price breaking below the support level and retracing towards it as resistance, presents an exciting opportunity for traders. A potential 400 pips downward movement towards the major support at 0.6177 is indeed significant. It's important to closely monitor the price action and watch for signs of rejection at the resistance zone. Remember to implement proper risk management techniques. Best of luck with your trades!

AnalyticsTrade · June 8, 2023

🔸Hello fellow traders! Today, let's take a closer look at the 4-hour chart for AUDUSD. After the previous analysis was invalidated, the risk/reward ratio has shifted in favor of the bulls for the mid-term. The current price structure resembles an inverted head and shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential bullish trend. Therefore, my recommendation is to focus on buying dips after pullbacks.

🔸In the short term, we can expect further gains as bulls have recently regained control. There is a strong support/resistance level near 6750, which could be retested soon. Bears should focus on shorting from this resistance level, while bulls should wait for a pullback after the retest around 6750 and then consider buying at lower levels.

🔸Here's the recommended strategy for AUDUSD: Bears can short from the mirror support/resistance level at 6750 with a stop loss of 40 pips. Take profit levels include TP1 at +80 pips, TP2 at +140 pips (final) at 6625. On the other hand, bulls should wait for a pullback near 6625 and buy with a stop loss of 40 pips. Take profit levels for bulls are TP1 at +80 pips, TP2 at +160 pips, and a final TP at 6800.

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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading futures, forex, CFDs, and stocks involves a risk of loss. It's important to carefully consider if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop-loss orders.

Good luck, fellow traders! Let's seize the opportunities in the market together!

AnalyticsTrade · June 8, 2023

Thank you for sharing your analysis and trading ideas. It's great to see that you have both a short-term and long-term perspective on the pair. Your explanation of the potential BUY opportunity at the 0.64 level, supported by dynamic trendlines and a Weekly DEMAND/BUY zone, provides a clear entry point to watch for. Additionally, your short-term SELL idea adds another dimension to your trading strategy. Your reminder about risk management is crucial, as it's important to always prioritize capital preservation. Good luck with your trades and thank you for sharing your insights!

AnalyticsTrade · June 8, 2023

Hey fellow traders,

I couldn't be more thrilled to share some exciting news with you today. Despite a soft GDP report and lackluster Chinese trade data, the Australian dollar is on a remarkable upswing, reaching a 1-month high against the US dollar. Currently trading at 0.6689, AUD/USD has surged by 0.28% and shows a remarkable 1.2% gain for the week.

Now, you might be wondering how this happened amidst disappointing economic indicators. Well, let's break it down. Australia's GDP growth has slowed to 0.2% in Q1 2023, falling short of expectations. It's evident that factors such as the cost of living crisis, rising interest rates, and weakened demand have contributed to this cooling trend. Furthermore, China's faltering reopening, as reflected in declining trade figures for May, poses challenges for Australian exporters, given China's significance as their largest market.

Interestingly, this GDP report coincided with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) announcement of a 25-basis point rate hike. The RBA's decision comes as no surprise, as they strive to combat stubborn inflation, currently standing at an alarming 7%. Governor Lowe has made it clear that the RBA remains committed to bringing inflation back within the 2-3% target range, which has necessitated the recent rate increases.

Looking ahead, it seems likely that the RBA will continue with its tightening measures, as core inflation remains more persistent than anticipated. While the cash rate is currently at 4.10%, there have been discussions around a potential peak at 4.8%. However, it's essential to balance this against the risks of a recession. Regardless, it's safe to say that we can anticipate further rate hikes on the horizon.

Now, let's turn our attention to the technical side of things. AUD/USD is currently testing resistance at 0.6677, and above that level, we have another hurdle at 0.6749. On the flip side, we have solid support at 0.6568 and 0.6496.

In conclusion, despite the temporary setbacks in the form of weak GDP figures and sluggish Chinese trade data, the Australian dollar has displayed remarkable resilience and continues to surge against the US dollar. The RBA's unwavering commitment to tackling inflation has instilled confidence in the market, driving the upward momentum of AUD/USD. As traders, let's embrace this positive momentum while keeping a close eye on upcoming rate decisions and economic developments.

Happy trading, and may the bullish trend continue!