HFM Posted October 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Date : 18th October 2022. Market Update – October 18 – Stocks Rally; Pound Climbs; Truss Sorry. USDIndex gets softer, breaking 112.00 floor and currently at 111.70. Treasuries gained ground though pared the rally into the close, richened though underperformed Gilts and European bonds. Much of the impetus again came from across the Pond after new UK Chancellor Hunt confirmed a complete U-turn on the government’s fiscal plan. The bull steepener saw the curve at -44 bps from -48 bps Friday. A weaker than expected Empire State index has added to beliefs the FOMC’s tightening is cutting into growth and will ultimately lower inflation, hence slowing rate hikes down the road. EUR – crossed 20-DMA and currently at 0.9850. JPY – at 149.10 for the first time since August 1990. Stocks – US100 paced the surge, jumping 3.43%, while the US500 climbed 2.66%, back above Support level at 3700 (20-DMA), with the US30 up 1.86%. The UK100 was up as much as 1.47% before gains were trimmed to 0.90%. Bank of America’s Q3 earnings beat expectations, attributed to “resilient” US consumers (share price +6%). JPMorgan Chase reported smaller than expected drop in profits. USOil – holds support at $85 amid softer USD and as Russia cuts supplies to Europe. – A weaker USD makes oil cheaper for non-US buyers. Gold – $1660. BTC – extends some gains from yesterday to $19534. UK Chancellor Hunt announced overnight the scrapping of plans to cut income tax indefinitely & the plan to reduce the entry level tax will be shelved. Cuts to dividend tax rates and tourist VAT will be reversed as well. At the same time, the UK will shorten universal energy support to April 2023 and instead the government will look into more targeted support measures. Hunt warned that more difficult decisions are coming on spending in order to get finances under control and restore market trust in the UK economy. So far it has worked as the Gilt yield plunged 35 bps to 2.83%, the FTSE climbed to 6920, and Cable tested 1.1439 before dipping back to 1.1327 at the close. The BOE is likely to delay the sale of 838 billions pounds of government bonds to encourage greater stability in gilt markets following Britain’s failed “mini” budget, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. Today – US Monthly Budget and EU ZEW. Earnings: J&J, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, etc. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.27%) topped to 0.5700 after hotter-than-expected CPI data. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend northwards, RSI 71 but flattened. H1 ATR 0.00155, Daily ATR 0.0136. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Date : 19th October 2022. Market Update – October 19 – Inflation hasn’t disappeared. USDIndex steady below 20-DMA at 112.20. Yields are rising and the rally in stocks is petering out, although ASX and Nikkei still managed to post modest gains and futures are up across Europe and the US. The 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 4.4 bp to 4.05% though and the Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 2.3%. EUR – holds Tuesday’s gains at 0.9830. JPY – at 149.42 and eyeing the psychologically important 1.50 mark. GBP – slightly below 1.1300 again. UK inflation higher than expected at 10.1% in September, versus 9.9% in August and compared to consensus expectations for a 10.1% y/y reading. RPI, still an important indicator for wage negotiations, lifted to 12.6% from 12.3%. Numbers will add to the arguments in favor of at least a 75 bp hike from the BoE in November. Stocks – Stocks surged at the open, rising over 2%, but closed with gains of 1.13% on the US30, 1.16% on the US500 (back over 3700), and 0.90% on the US100. Some decent earnings news and hopes for more of the same (Netflix beat in after-hours release) helped underpin. Netflix shares ticked up to the highest at $248.98 following results that beat consensus estimates: EPS: $3.10; Rev: $7.93B; Global Subscribers: +2.41 mil. The management ‘very optimistic’ regarding its new ad-supported plan. But later closed the day lower at $240.74. USOil – dropped -2.67% to $83.18 after the White House confirmed additional supply of 10 to 15 mln barrels will be released from the SPR and natgas tumbled -4.77% to $5.71, the lowest close since July 7. Gold – dropped to $1642. Today – EU HICP, BoC Inflation and US Housing Starts & Building permits Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD drifted to 1637. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line extend down, RSI 22 but flattened. H1 ATR 3.16, Daily ATR 26.11. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Date : 20th October 2022. Market Update – October 20 – 35th Anniversary Not Too Traumatic. USDIndex rallies to 113 but currently steady. Yields jump near the highs of the session, and indeed multi-year peaks, with some impetus from higher than expected inflation out of the UK and Canada. Ongoing hawkish Fedspeak kept bond bears in control too. The break of 4.10% on the 10-year added to the selloff, as did a disappointing 20-year auction and a hefty corporate calendar. Supply is pressuring the stock market with a corporate issuance and a 20-year auction hitting today. Lockheed Martin has a 5-tranche sale slated, including 3-, 5-, 10-, 32-, and 41-year maturities. Diageo Capital has a 3-, 5-, and 10-year offering on the calendar. Procter & Gamble and Nestlé reported lower sales volumes. Stocks – Stocks closed in red as the US100, the tech heavy index, finished with a -0.85% loss, and the US500 was off -0.67%, with the US30 down -0.33%. EUR – turns down to 20-DMA & below 0.9800. JPY – held below 150 as BOJ announces unscheduled bond buying as key yield broke ceiling ($667 million in government debt). GBP – under pressure at 1.1856. Britain’s interior minister Suella Braverman resigned criticising Liz Truss. This reflects the continued erosion of the PM’s authority after just weeks in the job. 1922 Committee meets today! USOil – climbed 3.55% to $85.76, ignoring the White House’s announcement of an additional 15 mln barrels of oil to be released from the SPR. Nat gas slumped another -5.24% to $5.44. Gold – extends lower! Currently at $1629 area. Today – EU Aug. current account, US Oct. Philly Fed index & Sep. existing homes. Earnings: Ericsson, ABB, Akzo Nobel, Nordea, Volvo, Danaher, Philip Morris, AT&T, Barclays etc. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURCHF spiked to 0.9840. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal bullishly crossed, RSI 69 & rising. H1 ATR 0.00087, Daily ATR 0.00641. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 Date : 24th October 2022. Market Update – October 24 – Mixed China Data, Sterling Rallies, Yen Whipsaws. USDIndex – Spiked down to 111.30 following more BOJ intervention as the JPY whipsawed and GBP rallied following the news that Boris Johnson will not run for PM again. USDIndex is now back to 112.00. Xi Jinping cemented power for a third 5-year term, Chinese data very mixed, GDP & Ind Production & Trade balance all big beats but Unemployment rises and Retail sales misses significantly. AUD & JPY Manu. PMI’s both missed. More Fedspeak over weekend shows signs that some may be looking to slow down rate hikes, possibly as early as the December meeting. Has cycle-high “Peak Dollar” been realised? Asian markets also very mixed following Chinese data, despite strong Wall Street close (Nikkei +0.51% Hang Seng -5.54%), European FUTS higher. EUR – rotated from 0.9700, lows on Friday to 0.9900 today as USD demand swung wildly. JPY – FT reported that BOJ bought $30 bln Yen on Friday as the pair hit 152.00, spiked to down to 146.00, before rallying to 149.50 again today and then further signs of BOJ action took the pair to 145.70 before once again recovering to 149.00 now. GBP – Sterling rallied from 1.1060 lows on Friday to close at 1.1300 and then rally to 1.1400 on open following Johnson news. Trades at 1.1360 now. A Sunak/Hunt combination the most acceptable to the markets, Gilts, Sterling and FTSE FUTS all higher. Stocks – Wall Street rallied on Friday (+2.37-2.47%) and had its best week (+4.74- 5.22%) in 4 mths. SNAP tanked -28.08% on worst Earnings in 5-years as Advertisers cut back (Pintrest -6.4%, META -1.6%) Weak earnings too from AMEX -1.67% & Verizon -4.46%) US500 3752 (+2.37%) US500 FUTS trades at 3766 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings. USOil – from $83.00 lows on Friday to $85.51 highs today and now trades at $84.00. Gold – plunged to $1617 lows on Friday before recovering to $1670 peaks today and trades at $1654 now. BTC – plummeted to test $18.5K on Friday, spiked to $19.7k today before slipping back to $19.3k now. Today – EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, UK Conservative Party Leadership Election (Sunak likely new PM). Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+1.11%) Johnson will NOT run – Sterling rallied from sub 165.500 lows Friday and again today to 169.75 highs. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 57.50 & rising, H1 ATR 1.117, Daily ATR 3.005. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 Date : 25th October 2022. Market Update – October 25 – Stocks Higher, USD lower, Sunak new UK PM. USDIndex – Tested down to 111.50 and remains below 112.00. PMI data was weak across the globe, falling further into contraction, this added to the sentiment that the FED may be able to cool aggressive interest hikes in December, lifting stocks (save Chinese tech companies) and weighing on yields. Riski Sunak, set to become new UK PM lifted, GBP, Gilts & UK100. Asian markets hit 2.5 year lows but recovered on back of positive Wall Street close (Nikkei +1.02% Hang Seng +0.5%), European FUTS also higher. EUR – rotated from 0.9800, lows yesterday back to 0.9900 today, trades at 0.9870 now ahead of ECB on Thursday. JPY – Friday and early Monday volatility cooled through the US & Asian sessions with the pair now pivoting at 148.85, again ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later this week. GBP – Sterling rotates around 1.1300 ahead of former UK Fin. Minister, Rishi Sunak, becoming the youngest UK PM in modern history and the first British Asian. Stocks – Wall Street rallied again yesterday (+0.86-1.34%) SNAP recovered +7.09% after Fridays drumming, (Alibaba -12.4%, Tencent -14.6%, JD.com -13.02%) HSBC & UBS both beat expectations today. US500 3797 (+1.19%) US500 FUTS trades at 3810 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings. USOil – from $83.00 lows again yesterday to test $85.00 today, Oil markets remain prone volatile newsflow. Gold – rotates through $1650. Recent lows at $1620 remains support and $1665 resistance. BTC – $19.5K was tested again yesterday and remains resistance, with $19.2K support so far, this week. Today – German Ifo Survey, Australian Federal Budget, US Richmond Fed, BoE’s Pill. EARNINGS – Alphabet, Microsoft, GM, UPS, GE, Raytheon, Coca-Cola, 3M, Visa, and more. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%) Collapsed from 0.7880 to 0.7765 yesterday but has recovered to 0.7830 today, next resistance 0.7850. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 54.90 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00121, Daily ATR 0.00935. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2022 Date : 26th October 2022. Market Update – October 26 – More Bad News is Good News, USD Slips, Stocks Rise & Yields Cool. USDIndex – Slumped to under 111.00 to 110.75. Weak Housing, the Richmond Manu. Index and Consumer Confidence, added to the outlook, initiated on Friday that rapid rate rises are beginning to have an impact and thus Fed funds futures continue to pare expectations for the terminal rate. From a 5.1% rate as soon as March early last week, implied rates have eased and are showing a 4.88% rate in May, 4.73% in September and hitting 4.50% by December. Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.25%) for a third consecutive day and weighing on yields but US10yr still holds over 4.0%. Rishi Sunak confirmed as new UK PM, lifting GBP, Gilts & UK100. MSFT & Alphabet both missed Earnings after hours. Asian markets hit 2.5 year lows again but remain positive. (Nikkei +0.80% Hang Seng 0.86%), European FUTS also higher. AUD CPI hit a 32-yr high at 7.3%. EUR – leaped over 100 pips from 0.9850, lows yesterday to 0.9978 now ahead of an expected 75 bp rate hike from the ECB on Thursday. JPY – Cooled from yesterday’s pivot at 148.85, through 148.00 to 147.85 now, again ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later this week. GBP – Sterling rallied strongly (over 230 pips) yesterday to test the key 1.1500 psychological level as Sunak became PM and ruthlessly implemented his own cabinet. Stocks – Wall Street rallied again yesterday (+1.07-2.25%) SNAP a further +15.52% after Fridays drumming, TSLA +5.29% & TWTR +2.45%, (Musk said the deal to be done by Friday). MSFT & GOOGL both -6.75% after hours. US500 closed at 3859, FUTS trades at 3830 now. USOil – from $83.00 lows again yesterday to test $85.50 after inventories showed draw downs, back to $84.70 now. Gold – dipped to $1640, yesterday before breaching $1660 to test $1665 resistance. BTC – rallied from $19.2k support to breach the important $20k to trade at $20.1k now. Today – EZ M3, US New Home Sales, BOC Announcement. EARNINGS – Meta, Boeing, BASF, Deutsche Bank (beat), Mercedes-Benz (profits significantly higher), Standard Chartered (beat) Barclays, and more. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.56%) Rallied from 0.6300 yesterday to 0.6435 now following surprise rise in AUD CPI, next resistance 0.6450. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.82, OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communicatiooon contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Date : 27th October 2022. Market Update – October 27 – USD Lower, BOC Surprise, META & Samsung Miss. USDIndex – Slumped to under 110.00 to 109.40. US new home sales dropped -10.9% in September, in line with expectations and BOC surprised markets with only a 50bp interest rate hike to 3.75%. Macklem had suggested more concern over risks from higher inflation following the rise in the latest CPI data. However, it will continue to tighten, sees terminal rate at 4.5%, there is still “excess demand,” in the economy and that a technical recession is just as likely as modest growth, cutting 2022 growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%, 2023 to 0.9% from 1.8%, and 2% in 2024 from 2.4%. Stocks sank (NASDAQ +2.25%) underperformed. Poor earnings and guidance from big tech (Google plunged -9%), and then Meta (-5.6%) missed and sank -20% after hours, wiping $67 billion off its market cap. Concerns over Apple and Amazon today. Asian markets rose initially but closed mixed. (Nikkei –0.32%, Hang Seng 1.60%), European FUTS also mixed. AUD imports prices 3 x higher than expected, but German GfK Consumer Climate not as bad as expected. EUR – leaped over parity 1.0000, land topped at 1.0093 earlier, now ahead of the ECB at 12:15 GMT. JPY – Cooled again, under 146.00 to 145.40 lows, ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later tomorrow. Friday’s pre-BOJ intervention peak took the pair to 152.00. GBP – Sterling rallied again (another 150+ pips) yesterday to test 1.1600 and trades to 1.1645 today. UK’s mid-term Fiscal statement was postponed from Monday to Nov. 17 as Gilts continue to recover with tax rises and spending cuts expected. Stocks – Wall Street were mixed with big moves for Tech stocks in particular. US500 closed -28.5 (-0.74%) at 3830, FUTS trades at 3850 now. USOil – rallied from $84.35 lows again yesterday to test $88.40 after inventories showed draw downs, back to $87.60 now. IEA Oil Inventories – big build 2.588M vs 1.029M. Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1675, yesterday before moving back to $1662 now. BTC – rallied again to test $21.0k, back to $20.7k now and holding the important $20k. Today – ECB Announcement & President Lagarde’s PC, US Quarterly PCE Advance, GDP Advance and Durable Goods. EARNINGS – Amazon, Apple, Intel, Caterpillar, McDonalds, Gilead, AB InBev, Credit Suisse, (in-line), Deutsche Lufthansa, and more. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.71%) Tank from over 170.00 yesterday to 168.80 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 28.05, OS but still falling, H1 ATR 0.299, Daily ATR 2.762. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted October 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Date : 31st October 2022. Market Update – October 31- October Ends! USDIndex – advanced a bit this morning but held below 111.00 ahead of the Fed this week. Treasuries were hammered after still hot inflation numbers and tight labor market conditions spooked bond holders and sparked heavy profit taking at week’s end. This morning, China’s factory activity unexpectedly fell in October, JPY Retail Sales beat but Consumer confidence and Housing starts missed significantly. German retail sales rose 0.9% m/m in September. EUR – hovering around parity 1.0000. JPY – further pressure at 147.90 after BOJ decision to keep ultra-low interest rates on Friday and disappointing retail sales this morning; GBP – reverts from 1.1600 (75 bp increases from BOE on Thursday?) Stocks – Steadied after closed largely in green last week. Guidance from mega tech, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, earnings have generally beaten, albeit a very low bar. Chevron & Exxon beat expectations. Better revenue and profit news from Apple (up 7.6% Friday, its biggest daily jump since July 2020) helped boost investor sentiment today, while hopes the FOMC will back off aggressive rate hikes after the well expected 75 bps on Wednesday supported too. US30 had its 4th consecutive week higher and all markets closed +2.5% (its best month since 1976). 263 companies of S&P500 have reported, 73% have beat expectations. Today though US futures are in red. USOil – at $86.80, struggling to hold above the 20- & 50-DMA. Gold – set for a new drift? Currently back to $1642 area. BTC – back to $20.4k now. Reuters – Russia’s backtrack from a UN-brokered deal to export Black Sea grains is likely to hit shipments to import-dependent countries, deepening the global food crisis and sparking gains in prices. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of wheat booked for delivery to Africa and the Middle East are at risk following Russia’s withdrawal, while Ukrainian corn exports to Europe will get knocked lower. Today – The new month and NFP will add to the mix this week. Today European prelim. GDP for Q3, tomorrow morning RBA Rate decision and Statement. EARNINGS – Aflac, Stryker, Williams, Companies, etc. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.98%) Extended above 86 area as antipodean are on track for an October gain ahead of RBA tomorrow. 1-hour MAs & RSI & Stochastics flattened but MACD histogram & signal line kept well above 0. H1 ATR 0.179, Daily ATR 1.299. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pradegxs Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 What is your medium-term view on USD? Any chance it will resume upside and uptake recent yearly highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Date : 1st November 2022. Market Update – November 1 – USD & Stocks cool following strong October. USDIndex – Slipped from 3-day highs at 111.50 to 110.80. Weak Factory data across Asia but stocks rally on speculation that China could be exiting zero-Covid policy. RBA ups inflation target to 8% from 7.75% and increases rates by 25bp in-line with expectations to 2.85% (7th in 7 months) mark a new 9-year high. “The path to achieving this balance (lower inflation) remains a narrow one and it is clouded in uncertainty,” Lowe. US Stocks lower (NASDAQ -1.03%) underperformed, after huge moves in October (DJIA30 +13.95%, S&P500 +7.99% & Nasdaq +3.9%). Asian markets rocket (Hang Seng +6.03%), European FUTS also higher. Overnight – Chinese Manu PMI’s rose but remain in contraction (49.2), JPY Manu. PMI flat at 50.7. EUR – dropped below 0.9900, to 0.9872 yesterday before recovering to 0.9920 earlier. JPY – rallied to 5-day high at 148.85 yesterday before declining to 147.75 now. It’s believed BOJ had spent $42.8b supporting the Yen in October. Today Fin Min. Suzuki said “Further sharp yen weakening is unfavourable with inflation being an issue”. GBP – Sterling dived from 1.1600 to 1.1460 yesterday, before recovering the key 1.1500 level today. Wide ranging tax rises and spending cuts are expected from the Nov. 17 Autumn statement. BOE 75 bp rate increase expected on Thursday. Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (META -6%) in particular. Musk sacks all directors and becomes CEO of Twitter. US500 closed -29.08 (-0.75%) at 3871, FUTS trades at 3900 now. BP lifted profits by 32% to $8.15b vs $6.16b. Toyota profits dropped 25%, Aramco profits up 39%. USOil – rallied from $85.50 lows yesterday to test $87.75 now. Biden warns of windfall taxes on non-invested profits of US oil companies. Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1650 today from $1630 yesterday. BTC – rotates around $20.5k, following the 14th anniversary of the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper “Bitcoin P2P e-cash Paper.” Today – UK & US Manu. PMI, US ISM Manu. PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, EARNINGS – BP, (+32% beat) Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Uber & AMD. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.75%) Rallied a whole point from 0.5775 to 0.5875 today, back to 0.5860 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 63.05, having been OB, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01060. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Date : 3rd November 2022. Market Update – November 3 – FED – Slower Hikes but for Longer. The FOMC rose rates by the as expected 75bp (4th consecutive hike to 14-year highs) and suggested lower rate hikes – “time to reassess pace of rate hikes is coming” – (50bp into Dec and 25bp into Q123) but perhaps for longer, “very premature to think about pausing.” Also suggesting a higher terminal rate, (5.1%) and then Powell re-iterated that “we have some ways to go until inflation is defeated.” USD and Stocks whipsawed wildly on the two-edged communication. Also this week jobs market remains HOT, JOLTS were better & ADP at 239K was 23% over expectations – so today’s claims and tomorrow’s NFP will be key. USDIndex – Dived to 110.25 on initial headline, but trades 1.8% higher now at 112.23. US Stocks rallied and then tanked lower into close (NASDAQ -3.36% underperformed again). 10-yr yields flirted under 4.0% but hold at 4.06%, and the 2-10yr yield curve remains the most inverted (and therefore most recessionary in 22 years). Asian markets weaker and EUR futures flat. Overnight – AUD Services PMIs better than expected (49.3) & Chinese Service PMIs worse than expected (48.4) both still in contraction. EUR – from a spike to 0.9980 has dropped to 0.9780 now. JPY – dipped to 145.80 but now trades at 147.85. GBP – Sterling lifted to 1.1560 on the immediate FED announcement before Powell press conference took it to 1.1340 now. Today the Bank of England is expected to follow FED with a 75bp interest rate hike (biggest in 33 years and taking rates in UK to 3%) Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (AMZN -4.83%, GOOG -3.79%) in particular. US500 closed -96.08 (-2.50%) at 3756, FUTS trades at 3762 now. USOil – rallied from $87.75 lows yesterday up to $90.00, after inventory draw-down of -3.1m vs 0.2m. Prices have now dipped to $89.00. Gold – from a spike to $1670 yesterday, trades at week lows at $1630 today. BTC – slipped from $20.5k, pivot back to test 20k earlier back to 20.2k now. Today – Swiss CPI, EZ Unemployment, US Weekly Claims, Services PMI, Factory Orders & ISM Services, Norges Bank & BoE Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, de Cos, Panetta & Elderson. Earnings – Rolls-Royce, Sainsbury’s, ING, BNP, Stellantis, Euronext, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, PayPal & Moderna. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.61%) from a spike to 0.6480 now down to 0.6315 and testing 0.6300. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 27.05, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.00279, Daily ATR 0.01077. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 Date : 7th November 2022. Market Update – November 7 – USD subdued & Commodities hold onto gains. The mixed NFP data on Friday, the rumours of China removing Zero Covid restrictions and comments from FED member Evans all combined to see a bounce in stock markets, a cooler USD and a gargantuan leap in Commodity prices. NFP head line beat at 261K vs 200k and last month was revised higher to 351k, Earnings slipped to 4.7% from 5.0% but Unemployment rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, suggesting the interest rate hikes are beginning to have an impact. The USD Index slumped to 110.70, from 112.75 highs. Stocks rallied +1.25% on Friday, but declined -1.39% to -5.65% last week. Yields moved higher (10-yr 4.163%). The major beneficiary was the Commodity Complex which leaped between 3.36%-8.00%. Evans suggested that the FED may start “thinking” about pausing, even if that did not happen until Q423. Asian stocks are firmer today despite Chinese Covid infections hitting a 6-mth high, Beijing reaffirming strict pandemic rules and a big miss for Chinese trade. EUR – rallied from close to hit 8-day lows on Friday at 0.9730 over 200 pips to 0.9960. Villeroy: It could take 2-3 years for inflation to return to target & rate hikes need to continue. JPY – has retaken 147.00 and trades at 147.40 from 146.60 NFP lows. GBP – Sterling tested 1.1150 again following the immediate NFP announcement but closed at 1.1370 and trades back to 1.1300 now. Stocks – Wall Street were higher with big moves for Tech stocks again (MSFT +3.33%, GOOG +3.85%, Alibaba +7.05%, JD.com +9.74%). US500 closed +50.02 (+1.36%) at 3770, (a loss of -3.34% for the week) FUTS trades at 3763 now. Berkshire Hathaway posted a Q3 loss of $2.69b, but operating profits beat estimates by 20% and stock investments increased by $3.7b. USOil – charged from $87.75 lows on Friday to test the $93.00 zone, rallying over 5% following all the “China opening” gossip. Back to $91.00 now. Gold – gained over 3.4% on Friday closing at $1680 and breaching key levels. Back to $1670 now. BTC – rallied with the weaker USD and risk on mood on Friday to top at $21.2k, back to $20.6k now, but holding above the key $20K level. Today – EZ Sentix, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Barkin, Mester & Collins. COP27 sees world leaders in Egypt this week and US clocks moved back 1 hour so the difference between London (GMT) & New York (ET) back to 5 hours. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.72%) reversing some of Friday’s rally to 0.5935, from 0.5740 on Thursday, and trades at 0.5875 now. MAs unaligned & flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 50.00 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00198, Daily ATR 0.01077. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Date : 8th November 2022. Market Update – November 8 – US Midterms Election Day. The USD Index slipped further to test 110.00 yesterday, a -2.65% decline from Thursday’s high at 113.00, trades at 110.25 today. Stocks rallied another +1.00%, Yields moved higher again (10-yr 4.163%) and the Commodity Complex cooled from Fridays rally as Beijing reaffirmed its strict pandemic rules. Overnight the Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $21k to under $19.5k. Markets are pricing in a “lame-duck” President Biden for the final 2-yrs of his administration as Republicans are likely to take control of the House of Representatives, with likely curbs on the debt ceiling, spending cuts and action to support energy companies, as inflation bites into businesses and households. A loss of the Senate too for President Biden would completely restrict any political actions regarding immigration, additional support for Ukraine and environmental policies. TRUMP “Big announcement” November 15. EUR – continued to rally yesterday and breached the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level. JPY – dipped to 146.10 lows from 147.50 and remains capped by 147.00 today. GBP – Sterling rallied over 200 pips again yesterday from 1.1300 to over 1.1540, but has since sunk below 1.1500. Stocks – Wall Street closed higher, tech led again META +6.53%, (job cuts) GOOG & MFST over +2.2% and TSLA –5.01%. US500 closed +36.25 (+0.96%) at 3806, FUTS trades at 3808 now. USOil – spiked over $93.00, yesterday before slipping to close at $92.00 and lower again now at $91.40. Gold – once again tested Friday’s close at $1680 before drifting to $1675 into close and $1670 now. BTC – drifted from $21.2k, top Monday to $20.5k at close, before tankingto $19.3k lows today as FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao trade allegations. It traces back to FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and a report from CoinDesk that says Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research has about $6 billion of its $14.6 billion assets in the coin, which his other company created.¹ Today – EZ Retail Sales, US Midterms, Speeches from BoE’s Pill (x2), Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Nagel & SNB’s Jordan. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.47%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, beyond Friday’s high to 0.5952, to 0.5900 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 41.42 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00114, Daily ATR 0.01091. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 Date : 9th November 2022. Market Update – November 9 – USD Weaker, Stocks Firmer, Crypto Crash, Republicans set to win the House. The USD Index slipped further to test 109.20 yesterday, and trades at 109.60, at today. Stocks moved higher again (DOW +1.00%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $20.5k to under $16.8k, lows before recovering, as leading crypto exchange FTX was forced to sell out to rival Binance. Asian shares have slipped too (Nikkei -0.56%, Hang Seng -1.88%). Chinese Inflation was mixed with CPI cooling to 2.5% from 2.4% but PPI -1.3% vs -1.5%. Mid Term election results are suggesting a win for the Republicans in the House (but not the Red Wave landslide some had predicted) while the Senate remains very close with a key win in Pennsylvania for the Democrats. A gridlocked Washington, even if the Democrats hold-on to control in the Senate, which many assume will be beneficial for stock-markets and see a weaker USD appears to be the most likely outcome. EUR – continued to rally yesterday and tested the next resistance at 1.0100, and trades at 1.0060, holding the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level. JPY – dipped again breaching 146.00 to 145.25 lows and trades at 145.85. GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1440, but then rallied to test 1.1600 and holds at 1.1540 now. Stocks – Wall Street rallied over 1.75% from open, gave up all their gains and then clawed back 0.5-1.0%. Big movers included COIN -10.78%, LYFT -22.9% and TSLA -2.93% (Musk sold $3.95bn shares). US500 closed +21 (+0.56%) at 3828, FUTS trades at 3827 now. USOil – rejected $93.00, collapsed through $90.00 and trades at $88.50 now. Gold – spiked from $1665 lows, over $1680 and $1700 resistance to trade at $1710. BTC – crashed to $16.8k from $20.5k, before recovering to $18.3k now. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was forced to sell his exchange to rival Binance as a run on FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research. The company was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022. Today – US Mid Term Election Results, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Barkin, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Haskel. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.42%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, to 0.5900 to test 0.6000 but now is down again to 0.5935. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 49.00 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00156, Daily ATR 0.01070. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Date : 10th November 2022. Market Update – November 10 – All About CPI, Congress to be Split & Crypto Carnage. The USD Index recovered to 110.50 yesterday as the expected Republican “Red Wave” in the US Mid Term elections did not materialise. They will, however, likely take control of the House of Representatives, though the Senate may not be decided until after the Georgia runoff 8th December. Stocks fell significantly (1.95-2.48%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex tanked again as Binance withdrew its offer to bail out FTX and CEO, Bankman-Fried has filed for bankruptcy, and personally owes lenders over $650M. BTCUSD trades at $16.8k. Australian Inflation Expectations were hotter than expected at 6.0% vs. 5.4%. Asian markets followed Wall St. lower. EUR – declined from resistance at 1.0100, and tested the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level. JPY – rotates through 146.00 from 145.25 lows and 146.75 highs. GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1330 from 1.1550 yesterday but remains capped by 1.1400. Stocks – Wall Street broke a strong 3-day rally losing over 60% of recent gains. Big movers included DIS -13.16%, OXY -9.22% and TSLA -7.17%. META +5.18% (11k job loss announcement). US500 closed -79.54 (-2.08%) at 3748, FUTS trades at 3755 now. USOil – fell significantly again from $89.00 yesterday to $85.25 now. Inventories grew to +3.9m vs 0.3m and a drawdown last week of over -3.1m Gold – held onto its significant recent gains over $1700 and trades at $1705. BTC – crashed to $15.4k and more than a 2-year lows (Nov. 2021 over $60.0k). Binance walked away from the offer to buy FTX on due diligence concerns. FTX was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022. Contagion continues COIN fell another 9.58% yesterday after Tuesday 10% fall and Robinhood has shed 32% of its value so far this week. Today – US CPI, Weekly Claims. Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester, George & Williams, BOE’s Tenreyro, ECB’s de Cos, Schnabel, SNB’s Maechler. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.64%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip below 1.7600 yesterday to test 1.7780 now, next resistance 1.7800. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00274, Daily ATR 0.02113. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Date : 11th November 2022. Market Update – November 11 – Gigantic day in stocks and bonds. The USD Index was the big loser on the day, plunging 3 big figures to a low of 107.67 from an intraday high of 110.99 before the data. Though it recovered marginally to close at 108.20, that is the lowest close since mid-September. Stocks skyrocketed significantly adding to expectations for a stepdown in Fed rate hikes and a paring in projections for the terminal rate. Yields dived 30 bps in the belly to 3.938% on the 5-year. The 10-year was down 27 bps to 3.813%. It was the first close under 4% since October 27. The 2-year yields had their biggest drop since 2008. EUR – rally above parity and currently at 1.0230. JPY – drifted to 140.19 from 146.50 high. Biggest fall since 1998. GBP – Sterling spiked to 1.1736 post US CPI data. This morning, GDP showed that the UK economy contracted less than expected in the third quarter. Stocks – Wall Street broke 2-month resistance. US100 rocketed 7.35% higher to 11,114, with the US500 surging 5.54% to 3,956, while the US30 was up 3.70% to 33,715. This was the strongest percentage pop in over two years. USOil – higher at $88.60 from $84.73. Gold – had its best week since March, spiking to 1760, has risen 4.2% so far in the week. BTC – Crypto crisis continues, however yesterday Bitcoin reverted some losses turning at 17940. Today – European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecast, Michigan Sentiment, ECB’s Panetta, Guindos & Lane Speech. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.82%) rallied from 0.6390 low yesterday to 0.6659 now, next resistance 0.6700. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72 & flat, H1 ATR 0.0025, Daily ATR 0.0118. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Date : 14th November 2022. Market Update – November 14. The USD Index closed at 106.389 but had tumbled to a low of 106.28 from an overnight high of 108.44. It’s down from 112.93 on the November 3 FOMC day. Stocks extended gains at the Friday close with another solid session, albeit in choppy action amid worries over the bankruptcy of FTX. Yields – 10-year Treasury yield is up 6.7 bp at 3.88%, EGB yields are correcting from the highs seen on Friday, however the ECB remains on course to tighten rates beyond neutral and start QT next year. EUR – above parity at 1.0320. JPY – sideways at 139.50. GBP – turned below 1.1800. Stocks – US100 to a 1.88% surge, while the US500 was up 0.92%. The US30 edged up 0.1%. The components of the US500 were mixed but a 3% pop in energy and a 2.46% jump in consumer discretionary sectors helped overcome losses in health care and utilities. Today, stocks struggled a bit and corrected some of last week’s gains, although China bourses got a boost from official directives aimed at supporting the ailing property sector, which added to the slight easing of virus restrictions that were announced last week. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.8% and 0.2% respectively, after Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.1% and -0.2%, weighed down by financials data. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.1%. Reuters reported that Chinese regulators have told financial institutions to extend more support to property developers to shore up the struggling real estate sector. USOil – at $88.40. Gold – had its best week since March, currently holds gains at 1763. BTC – slipping into the $16,000 area again. Today – Xi & Biden in Bali for G20 meeting. SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks & FOMC Member Brainard Speaks Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (+1.12%) rebounded to 16890 but struggling to break 50-hour SMA. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines still negative, RSI 53 & flat indicating that this might be a limited bounce. H1 ATR 313.46, Daily ATR 1334.606. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Date : 16th November 2022. Market Update – November 16 – Risk aversion picked up. The USDIndex’s safe-haven gains fizzled and held at the low 106.00 area. Yields had plunged on the PPI data, but 5-year closed at 3.890%, the 2-year at 4.326%, and the 10-year at 3.772%, respectively. Stocks supported by cooler PPI but pressured afterwards as news of a Russian-made missile strike in Poland sparked fears of heightened geopolitical tensions. US President Biden who said the missile was unlikely to have been fired by Russia helped to calm nerves. EUR – retests once again the 1.040. JPY – holds at 139.50, while Risk-sensitive Antipodeans, AUDUSD is up at 0.6782, and NZDUSD at 0.6175. Australian wages boasted the largest rise in a decade last quarter as a super-tight labour market finally made itself felt, raising the risk of further rate hikes. GBP – steady at 1.1860 – UK CPI jumped to 11.1% y/y in October from 10.1% y/y in the previous month. Core inflation failed to decelerate as anticipated and held steady at 6.5% y/y. Stocks – closed in the green with gains of 1.45% on the US100, 0.87% on the US500, and 0.17% on the US30. But they are well off of early highs where the future showed the US100 knee-jerking nearly 3% on the data, while the US500 was up 1.9%, with the US30 up over 1.1%. Better than expected earnings/guidance from Walmart and hopes for a bounce in Chinese growth supported too. USOil – at $85.95 Gold – jumps to 1787, but steady so far today. Today: US Retail Sales and Canadian Inflation along. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY retested the 145.30 highs, MAs aligning higher, MACD line turned positive but signal line remains below 0, RSI 59 btu flattened. H1 ATR 0.391, Daily ATR 1.691. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Date : 17th November 2022. Market Update – November 17 – “Recession is a threat”. Recession is a threat, as suggested by the inverted yield curve, and some recent earnings reports, including Target today, reflect the various headwinds hitting the economy. Geopolitical risks from Ukraine are lingering too. The USDIndex’s steady 106.25 after ranging from 105.34 to 107.10. (heavy data calendar saw stronger than expected retail sales, weaker than forecast industrial production, with a further big drop in the NAHB) Yields close lower with, 10-year yield down 13 bps at 3.669%, after a high of 3.84%. The 30-year was 12.5 bps lower at 3.837%. The curve inversion deepened further to -68 bps, not seen since early 1981. Stocks Fed’s Waller: “more comfortable considering stepping down to a 50 bp hike“. But he added he will not be making that decision until he sees more data. Waller has been one of the most hawkish on the FOMC so these remarks are significant. VS Fed Daly repeated a pause in hikes is off the table for now and reiterated Chair Powell’s comment that it is not even a point of discussion currently, in a CNBC interview. EUR – choppy at 20-day SMA. Bloomberg source story effectively confirmed that the ECB will slow its tightening cycle and deliver a 50 bp move in December. JPY – holding below 140, but there is speculation that the correction in the dollar is running out of steam AUDUSD holds gains above 0.6700 – Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 3.4%, employment lifted to a record high and part time employment declined. More signs of a tight labour market that will add to inflation concerns, especially after higher than expected data on wage growth yesterday. Stocks –Wall Street ended in the red with weakness concentrated in the US100 and the US500 following a very poor earnings report from Target. Nikkei and ASX closed narrowly mixed. PBOC warned that inflation may go higher as demand pickes up, with Hong Kong tech stocks most hit, by comments that dented hopes of further sizeable support from the central bank and Beijing officials for the economy. GER40 and UK100 are up 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. USOil – Energy weighed on the USOIL prices fell -1.88% to $85.29. Gold – drifted to $1760 on USD strength and pick up of Treasury yields. Today: UK Autumn Statement, US Housing Stats & Building Permits. Biggest FX Mover @palladium -0.90% (06:30 GMT) drifted to 2017 but rebounded this morning. MAs aligning flattened, MACD lines remain negative & RSI at 44 indicating that bearish bias holds. H1 ATR 11.64, Daily ATR 100.72. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted November 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Date : 18th November 2022. Market Update – November 18 – Tough talks to rescue Dollar? USDIndex peaked to 107.20 but it lost altitude into the close, now at 106.40. The hawkish outlook from the Fed’s Bullard weighed on bonds and stocks, though the markets managed to pare losses late in the day. Bullard stressed that the funds rate needs to go higher and into restrictive territory and suggested a worst case scenario of 7%. Yields – 10-year climbed to 3.80% before dipping to 3.767%. Stocks –choppier but was generally underwater due to the Fed outlook, recession fears, and ongoing geopolitical risks. But losses were trimmed, leaving the US100 down -0.35%, the US500 off -0.31%, and the US30 fractionally lower. EUR – choppy at 1.038, struggling to break 200-day SMA. JPY – holding below 140. GBP – holds above 1.1900, as UK retail sales rebounded in October. However, Sales are down more than 6% on the year on both measures and the data are a flagging the impact inflation and the erosion of real disposable income are having on overall activity. GDP already contracted in the third quarter of the year and the fourth quarter is likely to be worse. Chancellor Hunt did his best to sell his budget as measured and appropriate, but the prospect of a rising tax burden just as mortgage costs are on a steep incline will hit consumption and overall growth further. USOil – down -5% to $81.20, impacted by the stronger dollar earlier, as well as on fears a recession will crimp demand along with signs that supply chains are easing. Gold – down to $1760 on very hawkish Bullard. Today: ECB’s President Lagarde, German Buba President Nagel & BoE’s Haskel speeches Biggest FX Mover @NZDUSD +0.61%% (06:30 GMT) bounced to 0.6170. MAs aligning flattened, MACD lines remain positive & RSI at 62 but flat indicating that bullish bias might run out of steam. H1 ATR 0.00144, Daily ATR 0.01107. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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