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Date: 10th November 2026.

USD Decline Prompts Gold Rebound Ahead of Key CPI Release.
 

The US Dollar Index saw a strong decline on Monday, falling from 102.08 to 101.48, supporting Gold. Gold prices rose to the $4,145.00 resistance level due to the decline in the Dollar and oil prices. However, the primary driver of the week is likely to remain the US Consumer Price Index (inflation rate).

Markets expect a moderate increase for October’s inflation figures. The current expectations are that inflation will rise from 3.7% to 3.9%, almost double the Federal Reserve’s target. Over the past week, Gold’s prices have continued to improve after a record decline; however, inflation remains a key concern.
 

NFP and Consumer Price Index

Friday’s NFP report showed that the US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000. This marked a considerable improvement from September’s upwardly revised figure of 60,000 and was the highest figure in five months.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating continued resilience in the US labour market. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% annually, suggesting that wage pressures remain present. Investors were particularly interested in the strong wage increase, as it is known to contribute to persistent inflation as consumer demand rises.

At first, Gold fell moderately by 0.75%, but momentum failed and Gold was quick to rebound on Monday. However, if inflation comes in higher than market expectations, the Federal Reserve may become noticeably more hawkish over the next six months. As a result, Gold may witness renewed pressure, declining back to the $4,000 psychological level.

In addition to the inflation rate, investors will also monitor the core Consumer Price Index, which investors expect to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%.

The US Dollar Index and Oil Prices

One of the key factors supporting Gold’s upward momentum is the weakening US Dollar. The US Dollar is weakening due to the decline in oil prices and easing Middle East tensions. Since Friday’s market close, the US Dollar Index has fallen by 0.68% and is now trading at a five-day low.

This morning, Crude oil prices have fallen by a further 6% declining to their lowest level since late August. The decline in oil prices is also a positive factor for inflation and will impact the Fed’s interest rate guidance. This can also be positive for Gold, but in order to have a sustainable impact, oil prices will need to continue declining below $80 as a bare minimum.

The lower oil prices fall, the more positive it will be for the Gold prices and the more negative for the US Dollar. However, this will largely depend on whether tensions continue to ease, which remains highly uncertain for now. If oil prices continue to decline further throughout the day, the inflation release may have a lesser impact.
 

Gold (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis and CPI Release

If the US inflation rate and core Consumer Price Index both come in higher than the market’s expectations, the price of Gold may come under pressure and decline. However, traders should remain cautious, as prices could rebound later in the day, particularly if oil prices continue to decline.

If the CPI releases come in 0.1% higher than expectations, the release will be deemed negative, but 0.2% higher could be particularly damaging. However, lower inflation could prompt stronger demand. This will also depend on the CPI release and whether the US Dollar Index also continues to remain weak.

Gold's four-hour chart currently supports a cautiously bullish outlook, but the daily and weekly trends remain less convincing. The main challenge for buyers is to establish a sustained breakout above $4,150 and subsequently $4,200. On the smaller timeframes, bullish indications are likely to materialise as the price breaks above $4,127.70.
 

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart
 

Key Takeaways:

1. Gold approaches $4,150 as the US Dollar and oil prices continue to decline.
2. Markets expect US inflation to rise to 3.9%, potentially increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
3. Stronger-than-expected NFP figures highlight continued resilience in the US labour market.
4. A breakout above $4,150 could support further gains towards $4,200, while higher inflation could trigger renewed selling pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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