HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 9th October 2026.

 

Gold and S&P 500 Rebound: Can the Rally Continue?

 

 

The market risk appetite is improving on Friday as President Trump indicates that the US will not strike Iran before the midterms. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain intact but the US military is likely to remain inactive unless serious threats arise. Political experts say the White House will look to lower oil prices as the US midterms approach. This would be three weeks of possible calm in the Middle East.

 

As a result, oil prices, along with bond yields, are falling slightly, allowing for ‘risk-on’ market conditions. The best-performing assets of the day are currently metals and the stock market. In addition, a key factor is earnings season, which is only a few days away.

 

Earnings Season - OpenAI Eyes $70 Billion in Revenue by Year End

The quarter’s earnings season will start on Tuesday 13 October, with major US banks and the healthcare sector announcing their reports. On Tuesday, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group will make their third-quarter reports public. The release will mainly impact the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, but could also affect other stocks.

 

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are more exposed to these sectors, but the results can impact investor sentiment in general. As a result, all global indices could experience volatility and new trends. The technology sector will start releasing quarterly earnings reports on October 21 October with Tesla and Lam Research Corporation.

 

The three main US indices, the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones have struggled in the past two days, but are quickly rebounding as earnings expectations boost demand. Of particular interest are OpenAI’s latest statements regarding its revenue expectations.

 

OpenAI expects its annualised revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion this year, compared with approximately $50 billion at the end of September. The change represents a potential 40% increase. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by rising demand for its enterprise AI services as businesses increasingly adopt artificial intelligence.

 

The company is also reportedly seeking to raise $30 billion in new funding at a valuation of $1.4 trillion. The announcement follows concerns over OpenAI’s revenue figures, which contributed to selling pressure across technology and AI-related stocks. Despite these concerns, the latest projections highlight the rapid expansion of the AI industry and its growing importance to investor sentiment.

 

S&P 500 Rebounds As Earnings Edge Closer

The S&P 500 is trading close to 0.30% higher during this morning’s Asian session, but is still forming lower lows and lower highs. For this reason, investors will be cautious about the index’s direction and market signals. Currently, all indices are trading higher with the Nikkei 225 and NASDAQ seeing the strongest gains, while the Dow Jones is recording the weakest increase. The fact that gains can be seen across all global indices remains a positive indication.

 

The VIX Index is trading 1.30% lower, while index components are trading higher in pre-market trading. These factors indicate a possible rebound, however, the put-call ratio and McClellan Volume Summation Index are indicating weakness in market demand. For this reason, the short-term indications remain positive, but medium-term risks remain. The medium-term outlook will also largely depend on earnings reports. If earnings fail to impress, the index could fall, particularly as its trading very close to all-time highs.

 

HFM - S&P 500 15-Minutes Charts

 

In the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading above the VWAP and the moving average. This is providing a bullish indication, however, if the price falls below $7,781.50, these signals will fade.

 

Gold Rebounds, but Will It Be Limited?

Gold is seeing a strong rebound after declining on Wednesday to the lowest price since 4 August. Slightly lower bond yields and weaker US Dollar are allowing Gold to rise. However, investors should note that both the Dollar and bond yields remain extremely high, which may limit the bullish trend unless market conditions change.

 

According to the September FOMC minutes published yesterday, all 19 Fed policymakers supported an interest rate increase, with over 60% anticipating another hike this year. The probability of a year-end hike reached 69.3%, its highest level this year. The likelihood of rates remaining unchanged in October stands at 81.2%. However, most economists believe nothing has changed in the longer-term interest-rate outlook.

 

As the price rose 2% on Friday, Gold is now trading at a key resistance level. However, as Gold rises, the US Dollar Index is not continuing to fall. If the US Dollar Index remains above 101.80, Gold may struggle to continue the current trend.

 

HFM - Gold 15-Minute Chart

 

Key Takeaways:

• Reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, alongside lower oil prices and bond yields, are supporting risk appetite.
• Major US banks and healthcare companies begin reporting on 13 October, with results expected to influence broader market sentiment.
• Global indices are recovering, supported by earnings expectations and OpenAI’s projected $70 billion annualised revenue. However, medium-term risks remain.
• Gold is rising 2% as bond yields and the US Dollar weaken. However, expectations of another Fed rate hike and key technical resistance could limit further gains.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

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Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

 

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