HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 10th November 2026.

USD Decline Prompts Gold Rebound Ahead of Key CPI Release.
 

The US Dollar Index saw a strong decline on Monday, falling from 102.08 to 101.48, supporting Gold. Gold prices rose to the $4,145.00 resistance level due to the decline in the Dollar and oil prices. However, the primary driver of the week is likely to remain the US Consumer Price Index (inflation rate).

Markets expect a moderate increase for October’s inflation figures. The current expectations are that inflation will rise from 3.7% to 3.9%, almost double the Federal Reserve’s target. Over the past week, Gold’s prices have continued to improve after a record decline; however, inflation remains a key concern.
 

NFP and Consumer Price Index

Friday’s NFP report showed that the US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000. This marked a considerable improvement from September’s upwardly revised figure of 60,000 and was the highest figure in five months.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating continued resilience in the US labour market. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% annually, suggesting that wage pressures remain present. Investors were particularly interested in the strong wage increase, as it is known to contribute to persistent inflation as consumer demand rises.

At first, Gold fell moderately by 0.75%, but momentum failed and Gold was quick to rebound on Monday. However, if inflation comes in higher than market expectations, the Federal Reserve may become noticeably more hawkish over the next six months. As a result, Gold may witness renewed pressure, declining back to the $4,000 psychological level.

In addition to the inflation rate, investors will also monitor the core Consumer Price Index, which investors expect to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%.

The US Dollar Index and Oil Prices

One of the key factors supporting Gold’s upward momentum is the weakening US Dollar. The US Dollar is weakening due to the decline in oil prices and easing Middle East tensions. Since Friday’s market close, the US Dollar Index has fallen by 0.68% and is now trading at a five-day low.

This morning, Crude oil prices have fallen by a further 6% declining to their lowest level since late August. The decline in oil prices is also a positive factor for inflation and will impact the Fed’s interest rate guidance. This can also be positive for Gold, but in order to have a sustainable impact, oil prices will need to continue declining below $80 as a bare minimum.

The lower oil prices fall, the more positive it will be for the Gold prices and the more negative for the US Dollar. However, this will largely depend on whether tensions continue to ease, which remains highly uncertain for now. If oil prices continue to decline further throughout the day, the inflation release may have a lesser impact.
 

Gold (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis and CPI Release

If the US inflation rate and core Consumer Price Index both come in higher than the market’s expectations, the price of Gold may come under pressure and decline. However, traders should remain cautious, as prices could rebound later in the day, particularly if oil prices continue to decline.

If the CPI releases come in 0.1% higher than expectations, the release will be deemed negative, but 0.2% higher could be particularly damaging. However, lower inflation could prompt stronger demand. This will also depend on the CPI release and whether the US Dollar Index also continues to remain weak.

Gold's four-hour chart currently supports a cautiously bullish outlook, but the daily and weekly trends remain less convincing. The main challenge for buyers is to establish a sustained breakout above $4,150 and subsequently $4,200. On the smaller timeframes, bullish indications are likely to materialise as the price breaks above $4,127.70.
 

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart
 

Key Takeaways:

1. Gold approaches $4,150 as the US Dollar and oil prices continue to decline.
2. Markets expect US inflation to rise to 3.9%, potentially increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
3. Stronger-than-expected NFP figures highlight continued resilience in the US labour market.
4. A breakout above $4,150 could support further gains towards $4,200, while higher inflation could trigger renewed selling pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th November 2026.

Waller’s Warning and Hot Inflation Rattle Markets: Is a 0.50% Hike Coming?
 

The Federal Open Market Committee member, Christopher Waller, rattled markets on Tuesday, while high inflation figures added to investors’ concerns. The US Dollar Index rose 0.70% before retracing, and Gold fell more than 2.50%.

The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, spoke at the Bank of England’s Watchers’ Conference in London. Mr Waller is known to be one of the more senior members of the committee and sounded considerably more hawkish than markets had priced into monetary policy.

Adding to the hawkish tone was the latest Consumer Price Index, which saw inflation rise above expectations. As a result, markets are erasing any possibility of a pause in December and are even considering a larger hike.
Speaking at the Bank of England’s Watchers’ Conference, Mr Waller told journalists that if inflation came in as per market expectations, he would vote for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike. At the time, almost 75% of the market was pricing in a quarter-percentage-point rate hike. For this reason, this comment did not create significant volatility.

However, as the governor continued, he also stated that if inflation rose above expectations, particularly core CPI figures, he would deem a 0.50 percentage point hike appropriate. At the time, the market was not considering any possibility of a larger rate hike. This comment came as a particular shock to the market.

Waller expressed concern about persistent price pressures, particularly across services, energy, and AI-related goods. He described economic growth as healthy and the labour market as stable, giving the Fed room to tighten monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve has not adjusted interest rates by 0.50 percentage points in almost four years. According to the Chicago Exchange, the market now deems a 0.25 percentage point hike an 85% possibility and a larger hike as a 15% possibility. The consensus remains for a 0.25 percentage point hike, but the market now believes the Fed will be more hawkish over the next three months. For example, a 0.25 percentage point hike in December with a further hike in January.
US inflation rose more than expected in October, increasing concerns about persistent price pressures. This is particularly important as the inflation figures followed the hawkish comments from Christopher Waller.

The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding economists’ expectations of 0.3%, although it slowed from September’s 0.6% increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3%, also exceeding forecasts.

Higher housing, food, and energy costs contributed to the increase, with food prices rising 0.5% and energy prices climbing 0.7%. Economists estimate that annual inflation is now at 4.00%, double the target of the Federal Reserve.

Demand for the US Dollar increased significantly as investors shifted capital away from bonds, Gold and other assets in favour of the currency. The US Dollar Index also continues to gain during this morning’s Asian session and remains the best-performing currency of the day.
 

HFM - US Dollar Index 4-Hour Chart

The USD/JPY is one of the currency pairs which are under considerable pressure, as the interest rate difference between the Fed and Bank of Japan are likely to start widening again.

The USD/JPY is showing signs of short-term exhaustion following its recent rally. However, there is no sign of the trend reversing back down towards 158.000. A breakout above 158.920 and 158.940 will significantly strengthen bullish indications.

On the daily timeframe, USD/JPY continues to demonstrate a bullish structure, trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The RSI is near 56, indicating positive momentum without reaching traditional overbought territory. The next significant resistance area lies around 159.00–159.20, followed by the psychological 160.00 level.

A key level for the currency pair as the price increases will be the 159.745, which is a key resistance level and the psychological price of 160.000.

The price of the Gold was falling throughout all sessions on Tuesday but gained momentum after Mr Waller’s comments and the CPI release. Currently, the indications are no longer pointing towards a downward price movement despite fundamentals turning negative for Gold.

Gold on Wednesday has so far risen 0.75%, but remains below the previous day’s average, which was at $4,046.79. The price structure on Wednesday remains stable so far, with Gold rising and forming clear higher highs and higher lows. The price is also trading above all moving averages and above the day’s VWAP.
 

HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, the only bearish signal is the divergence of most oscillators, which is pointing towards the upward price movement being fragile. This would also be in line with the fundamentals. However, in order for technical indicators and price action to turn bearish, the price must fall below $4,040.00 at a minimum.

At this point, the price will break below the 200-period moving average and below key price levels.
 

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller signals that a larger 50-basis-point rate hike could be appropriate if inflation remains elevated.
• October’s CPI rises by 0.4%, above forecasts of 0.3%, increasing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.
• Markets now price in an 85% probability of a 0.25% hike and a 15% chance of a larger 50-basis-point hike.
• The US Dollar Index rises 0.70% while Gold falls more than 2.50%, as investors react to inflation data and expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited 55 minutes ago by HFM