HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 10thJune 2025.

 

Market on Edge As Trade Negotiation Deadline Approaches!

 

Investors are realising that the ‘temporary pause’ on reciprocal tariffs is slowly approaching its deadline triggering a sense of uncertainty. This is something that is reflected in today’s pricing, particularly the stock market and the US Dollar. Clearer projections for the market’s price movements are likely to be available when the outcome of today’s meeting between the US and China comes to a close. For China, the current deal with the US will end on August 14th and for most other countries on July 8th.

 

Will the US and China Agree on a New Deal?

The US and China will continue negotiations this morning in London at 10:00 local time. Yesterday, the negotiations lasted more than 6 hours, but beared no fruit. Due to this, the market at times saw large retracements and for some assets even corrections. Currently, the market pricing is not conveying any signs of optimism but a clear ‘wait and see’ stance.

 

Kevin Hassett, the White House Economic Adviser, yesterday spoke with journalists and sounded quite optimistic. The President also commented that while China is challenging to negotiate with, reaching a deal is both possible and crucial for both sides. The US leading negotiator, Secretary Scott Bessent, will leave the UK for the US this evening. As a result, today’s negotiations will be vital!

 

According to reports, currently, the main sticking point is China’s raw earth material which the US wishes to obtain easier access and China is looking to get more access to US technology and plane parts. According to Kevin Hassett, the US is willing to loosen restrictions on tech, but there have been no reports from the Chinese government as of yet.

 

NASDAQ (USA100)

The NASDAQ during this morning’s Asian session saw a significant increase rising more than 0.70%, but thereafter fell to the day’s low. This up- price movement clearly illustrates the market’s feeling of uncertainty while the US and China are yet to put pen to paper. On the one hand, the market is optimistic as the two countries have recently managed to agree on a temporary trade deal. The fact that such high ranks of participants from both sides indicates the seriousness of the intentions and the desire to reach a comprehensive agreement around bilateral trade.

 

In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to maintain a bullish bias regardless of today’s correction back to $21,746.05. The price continues to remain above the 75-period EMA and 100-period SMA. The price is trading below the VWAP so far, but this will become more important once the US session opens. In terms of price waves, the asset continues to see higher highs and lows. The price, however, will all depend on today's negotiations.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

 

Lastly, a positive factor for the NASDAQ is that the Put and Call ratio is again declining after slightly rising the week before. In addition to this, the VIX also continues to fall while 62% of the NASDAQ’s components are increasing in value.

 

US Dollar and Gold

The US Dollar is currently increasing in value and has risen to its highest price since May 30th. Even though the price of the US Dollar and Gold is traditionally inversely correlated, both assets are simultaneously increasing. However, if an agreement is signed by the US and China, Gold may lose momentum as the market’s sentiment improves. Currently, the US Dollar is the day’s best-performing currency.

 

The US Dollar Index has risen 0.44% so far. The second best-performing currency is the Japanese Yen while the worst is the British Pound (GBP). A key factor for the US Dollar will also be tomorrow’s US inflation rate. The market currently expects US inflation to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. This would reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before autumn.

 

 

 

USDX 3-Hour Chart

Key Takeaway Points:

• The upcoming expiration of the tariff pause (July 8 globally, August 14 for China) is fueling investor caution, reflected in volatile stock and USD pricing.
• High-level negotiations in London continue, with no agreement yet. Today’s outcome is expected to strongly influence market direction. The US representatives remain optimistic supporting the market.
• Despite early gains, the index corrected back, showing investor indecision. Technicals remain bullish, but momentum hinges on trade talk results.
• The USD leads global currencies, buoyed by risk-off sentiment and expectations of rising inflation, while gold also climbs despite typical inverse correlation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th June 2025.

 

Dow Fails to Break Resistance Ahead of Key Bond Auction and CPI!

 

The Dow Jones rose to its highest price since March 2025 as the US and China agreed on a framework to lower tariffs. The comments from both the US and Chinese negotiators kept to an optimistic tone, reassuring markets of a deal. However, a key factor for today will be the US inflation rate and two US Bond auctions. The Treasury will sell $39B in 10-year notes Wednesday and $22B in 30-year bonds Thursday.

 

Dow Jones Rises on US-China Optimism

The Dow Jones on Tuesday rose 0.20% from market open to market close. However, the impulse wave after a decline early in the day measured 0.70%. The Dow Jones continues to honour the current trend lines which act as a support level. The bullish price movement is being given by the US-China trade negotiations in London and the optimistic tone.

 

So far we know the agreement will mean China will ease export restrictions on rare earth materials essential for electronics and green tech. In exchange, the US will relax some export controls on high-tech items like semiconductors and jet-engine parts. As a result, the NASDAQ, SNP500 and Dow Jones rose in value.

 

However, even with the latest upward price movement, the index continues to find resistance at the $42,959.00 level and fell 0.20% on Wednesday 11th.

 

Dow Jones Price Action and Technical Analysis

The main concern for technical analysts is that the Dow Jones on the daily chart is witnessing divergence. This means the price has risen to a higher high, but the RSI remains at a lower low. Simultaneously, as mentioned above the price finds resistance at the $42,959.00 level and has failed to break above this level on 4 occasions.

 

 

 

USA30 1-Hour Chart

 

 

Therefore investors remain on edge and prepared for an alternative price movement regardless of the price remaining above most Moving Averages and trend lines. Currently, some risk indicators point to a slight risk-off sentiment, however, no major red flags. The Put/Call ratio has fallen which is positive for the Dow Jones, and the VIX has risen which is negative. The High Low Index also points to a positive investor sentiment as 5 stocks remain at 52 week highs while zero are at a 52 week low.

 

Due to not obtaining a clear one-sided signal, investors will await for the Bond Auction and Inflation Rate to determine the future price movement.

 

Today’s Bond Auction and Inflation Rate Impact On The Dow Jones

The Treasury will sell $39 billion in 10-year Bonds Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. Traditionally, investors do not class bond auctions as an event which can trigger high volatility. However, given the increasing debt scenario, investors will pay particular attention. If the bond values are lower than previous auctions and expectations, investors may become spooked triggering a lower risk appetite. A poorly received auction (low demand, high yields) can have a negative effect on both the Dow Jones and the US Dollar. However, it can have a positive impact on Gold prices, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

 

 

 

US Budget Deficit

 

 

Economists expect the US CPI (inflation rate) to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Over the past 3-months, the inflation rate has consecutively fallen below expectations. If the inflation rate again falls below expectations, the Dow Jones may find enough support to retest the current resistance level. Whereas, if the inflation rate rises to 2.5% or above, the Dow Jones can witness a potential quick selloff.

 

Key Takeaway Points:

• Optimism from the trade deal boosted the Dow, with China easing rare earth export restrictions in exchange for US tech export relaxations.
• The Dow struggles at the $42,959 resistance level, with technical divergence signalling potential price shifts.
• Positive sentiment is seen with 5 Dow stocks at 52-week highs, but mixed risk indicators suggest caution.
• Bond auctions and inflation data will influence future market movement, with higher inflation possibly triggering a selloff.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.