HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd November 2024.

BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.

Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia.
• The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open.
• The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50.
• Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver.
• Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too.
• Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%.
• Asian stocks rose after Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia.
• Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction.
• European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially.
• Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally.
• Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00.
• Bitcoin currently at 99,300, flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level.
• The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94.
• The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week.
• Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46.
• Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th November 2024.

New Secretary Cheers Markets; Trump Trade Eased.


Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Equities and Treasuries rise, as markets view Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary as a stabilizing decision for the US economy and markets.
• Bessent: Head of macro hedge fund Key Square Group, supports Trump’s tax and tariff policies but gradually. He is expected to focus on economic and market stability rather than political gains. His nomination alleviates concerns over protectionist policies that could escalate inflation, trade tensions, and market volatility.
• Asian stocks rose, driven by gains in Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Chinese equities fail to follow regional trends, presenting investors’ continued disappointment by the lack of strong fiscal measures to boost the economy. The PBOC keeps policy loan rates unchanged after the September cut.
• US futures also see slight increases. 10-year Treasury yields fall by 5 basis points to 4.35%. Nvidia dropped 3.2%, affected by its high valuation and influence on broader market trends. Intuit fell 5.7% after a disappointing earnings forecast. Meta Platforms declined 0.7% following the Supreme Court’s decision to allow a class action lawsuit over the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
• Key events this week:
  • Japan’s CPI, as the BOJ signals a possible policy change at December’s meeting.
  • RBNZ expected to cut its key rate on Wednesday.
  • CPI & GDP from Europe will be released.
  • Traders will focus on the Fed’s November meeting minutes, along with consumer confidence and personal consumption expenditure data, to assess potential rate cuts next year.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar declines as US Treasuries climb.
• Bitcoin recovers from a weekend drop, hovering around 98,000, having more than doubled in value this year. Analysts suggest consolidation around the 100,000 level before any potential breakthrough.
• EURUSD recovers slightly to 1.0463 from 1.0320 lows.
• Oil prices drop after the largest weekly increase in nearly two months, with ongoing geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East. UKOIL fell below $75 a barrel, while USOILis at $70.35.
  • • Iran announced plans to boost its nuclear fuel-making capacity after being censured by the UN, increasing the potential for sanctions under Trump’s administration.
    • Israel’s ambassador to the US indicated a potential cease-fire deal with Hezbollah, which could ease concerns about Middle Eastern oil production, a region supplying about a third of the world’s oil.
    • Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated with longer-range missile use, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crude flows.
    • Citigroup and JPMorgan predict that OPEC may delay a planned increase in production for the third time during their meeting this weekend.
• Gold falls to $2667.45 after its largest rise in 20 months last week.Swaps traders see a less-than-even chance the central bank will cut rates next month. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on gold, as it doesn’t pay interest.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 26th November 2024.

Trump’s tariff threats boosted Dollar; Peso, Loonie, Gold & Oil Lower.


The Trump trade picked up steam as investors cheered his pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. Beliefs he will be a steadying voice in the administration’s fiscal measures, while still following President-elect Trump’s tariff and tax commitments, underpinned.

Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Trump threatened on Monday to impose sweeping new tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on his first day as US President to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs. He would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the country from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China as one of his first acts as president of the US.
• Bessent’s 3-3-3 plan aims to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP, boost growth to 3%, and increase oil production to 3 mln barrels.
• Treasury yields dove in a curve flattener, extending their drops through the session, on expectations inflation will decelerate. A strong 2-year auction also supported.
• The Dow led the charge, climbing 0.99% to 44,736, a new record peak as the rally broadens. The S&P500 climbed to 6020, a session peak, but finished with a 0.3% gain to 5987. The NASDAQ closed 0.27% higher.
• Today, stock markets in Europe are posting broad losses, with the DAX down -0.6%, the FTSE 100 0.4%, after a largely weaker close across Asia.
• ECB: Lane suggests ECB must be open-minded on speed of rate cuts. The ECB’s Chief Economist said in a speech on Monday evening that “remaining open-minded about the speed and scale of adjustments is in fact a valuable strategy across various environments, as different situations may necessitate distinct approaches.” This careful, step-by-step strategy enables us to observe the responses of the economy to our decisions and continuously refine our understanding of their impacts.” The comments leave the door open to a 50 bp move in December, but also tie in with our expectation that the central bank will deliver a 25 bp while tweaking the forward guidance and commit to additional moves.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex hit a session high of 107.50 and is currently lower at 106.85.
• Mexican peso and Canadian dollar slumped as the dollar is being viewed as a haven after the comments of President-elect Donald Trump on tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. USDCAD spiked to 1.4177 and USDMXN rallied to 20.74.
• Oil and Gold lost ground, in part on cooling geopolitical risks, and on Trump trades. Oil dropped -3.03% to $69.09 per barrel, in part on the Trump trade and on talk of a potential cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Similarly, gold fell -3.26% to $2605 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 27th November 2024.

S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up.


Asia & European Sessions:

• Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%.
• Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions.
• President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces.
• FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026.
• RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks.
• Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth.
• Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459.
• The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut.
• Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire.
• Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.