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Date: 08th May 2025.
 
Markets Rally as Fed Holds Rates, Trump Teases Major Trade Deal With UK.

 

Markets Rally as Fed Holds Rates, Trump Teases Major Trade Deal With UK

US stocks surged midweek as investors reacted to a flurry of market-moving developments—from Federal Reserve policy decisions and trade deal speculation to AI regulations and geopolitical tensions.

 

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure

Despite mounting pressure from former President Donald Trump to lower interest rates ahead of a potential economic slowdown, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. This decision follows a full percentage point cut made in late 2024.

 

‘Uncertainty’ remains the name of the game for the FOMC as well as the markets. Though the word was used only once in the statement, Chair Powell used it, or variations of it, many times in his presser, ultimately saying his gut tells him ‘uncertainty’ over the economy's path is extremely elevated.

 

Powell warned of ongoing risks from global trade tensions and tariffs, stating, ‘If sustained, large increases in tariffs could lead to higher inflation, slower growth, and increased unemployment.’ He acknowledged that the Fed remains vigilant, especially as uncertainties around international trade persist.

 

The major takeaway is that the Fed is firmly on the sidelines monitoring the many tariff-related unknowns regarding their ‘scale, scope, timing, and persistence’ and their impacts on the economy. The Fed is in no hurry and awaits clear evidence to dictate the appropriate policy response.

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s independence on Wednesday, dismissing political influence from the White House. Addressing reporters, Powell emphasised, ‘President Trump doesn’t affect our doing our job at all,’ and reiterated that he has never—and will never—request a meeting with any US president.

 

 

 

2025-05-08_10-01-15_00054f91a0ec4a8f9cc294f98bc15fb8

 

 

Trump Sparks Market Rally With UK Trade Deal Tease

Equity markets jumped late Wednesday after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had secured a ‘MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY.’ Sources familiar with the matter indicated the United Kingdom is expected to be named as the trade partner during a scheduled White House press conference Thursday morning.

 

US stock futures surged on the news:

 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.6%
  • S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%
  • Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1%
  • Gold is down 0.7%, sliding to $3,336 — edging closer to the crucial 100-hour moving average at $3,330.

Expectations for a broader US-UK economic agreement added to investor optimism, alongside plans for high-level trade talks between the US and China in Switzerland. However, Trump’s statement that tariffs on Chinese imports would remain in place ahead of the negotiations tempered some enthusiasm.

 

Asian Markets and Geopolitical Concerns

Asian stock markets followed the US momentum on Thursday:

 

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.2%
  • Australia’s ASX 200 increased 0.2%
  • South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 0.8%
  • Shanghai Composite advanced 0.8%

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, introduced fresh risks. Pakistan has vowed retaliation for missile strikes it says were carried out by India, resulting in over 30 civilian deaths in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab. The situation has drawn international concern over the potential for wider instability in the region.

 

Nvidia, AMD Surge as AI Export Rules Get Revamped

Tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, also benefited from a regulatory shift. Nvidia (NVDA) closed up 3% following reports that the Trump administration will repeal AI chip export restrictions imposed by the Biden administration.

 

The US Commerce Department confirmed the policy reversal, describing the previous rules as ‘overly bureaucratic’ and vowing to implement a streamlined framework that ‘unleashes American innovation.’

 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also climbed nearly 1.8% on the news, though both chipmakers saw their shares ease slightly in after-hours trading.

 

The Walt Disney Co. led the earnings-driven rally, soaring 10.8% after beating profit forecasts, raising guidance, and reporting over one million new streaming subscribers.

 

BoE Expected to Cut Today

The BoE is widely expected to lower the Bank Rate by another 25 bp to 4.25% on May 8. U.K. inflation is still expected to pick up again before retreating, but lower oil prices and a stronger pound will likely prompt the BoE to lower inflation forecasts with the updated Monetary Policy Report, which will pave the way for lower rates. And with growth risks intensifying thanks to US tariff jitters and the impact of the autumn budget, the chances of back-to-back cuts are rising, especially as U.K. rates remain relatively high.

 

Stagflation risks continue to linger, but BoE head Bailey warned last week that a trade war would hurt the U.K. economy, despite the fact that it is facing lower ‘reciprocal’ tariffs than others. Bailey stressed that ‘it is not just the relationship between the US and the UK, it is the relationship between the US, the U.K. and the rest of the world that matters, because the UK is such an open economy.’ ‘We have to take very seriously the risk to growth’, Bailey warned, adding that ‘fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth.’

 

Outlook: Economic Growth Meets Policy Uncertainty

Despite global uncertainties, the Fed noted that the US economy continues to grow at a ‘solid pace.’ However, Powell cautioned that persistent tariff threats and rising inflation could put the central bank in a precarious position,risking a scenario of stagflation, where economic stagnation coincides with rising prices.

 

With trade negotiations looming, rate cuts paused, and geopolitical risks rising, investors will be closely monitoring headlines for clues on the next moves in markets and monetary policy.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
 
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
 
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 09th May 2025.
 
Markets Rally on Renewed Trade Optimism as Trump Softens Stance.

 

Markets Rally on Renewed Trade Optimism as Trump Softens Stance

US equities and the dollar climbed to their highest levels in a month, as investors grew increasingly hopeful ahead of a key round of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Talks are scheduled to take place in Switzerland over the weekend, with both sides seeking to reduce tensions and roll back punitive tariffs, currently at 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on US goods in response.

 

President Trump struck a more conciliatory tone, suggesting tariffs on China could soon be scaled back. ‘I think it’s going to be a substantive and friendly meeting,’ he said while unveiling a new trade deal with the UK. When asked about potential reductions, Trump said, ‘Right now you can’t go any higher. It’s at 145%, so we know it’s coming down.’

 

The shift in tone marks a turning point after a turbulent April, during which markets were rattled by growing recession fears and escalating trade rhetoric. Since Trump first hinted at easing duties late last month, investors have rotated back into US assets, fueling a strong rebound in risk sentiment.

 

‘You’re going to want to buy stocks now,’ Trump told reporters on Thursday, citing both the new UK deal and a recently enacted tax measure as reasons for investor optimism.

 

Equities Push Higher as Risk Appetite Builds

 

Wall Street posted a second straight day of gains: the Dow rose 0.62%, the S&P 500 added 0.58%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.07%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.02%, nearing record highs, while the Euro Stoxx 600 rose 1.1%. Futures suggest more upside in US and European markets heading into the weekend.

 

 

 

2025-05-09_8-50-06_31c072dc4b04494d9e6ffc366f3aa4af

 

 

Asian shares, however, delivered a mixed performance as investors stayed cautious ahead of the trade meeting. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.32%, Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.41%, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.15%.

 

Despite the cautious tone, US futures posted modest gains, and oil prices continued to trend higher.

 

Fresh trade data from China added to the market narrative. April exports rose 8.1% year-on-year, beating expectations but down from March’s 12.4% pace. However, shipments to the US plunged over 20%, as the impact of steep US tariffs began to take hold.

 

Dollar Rebounds Sharply as Euro Falters

 

The US dollar index (DXY) surged above the 100 mark for the first time in nearly a month, gaining more than 1% as capital flowed back into dollar-denominated assets. The euro, which had previously benefited from safe-haven demand, dropped to 1.12—its lowest level since early April, after peaking above 1.15 in recent weeks.

 

Oil Jumps While Gold Pulls Back

 

Crude prices rallied to their highest levels in a month. WTI crude climbed over $60 per barrel, up 3.5% since Thursday’s open, and Brent crude broke through $63 per barrel. The gains were fueled by improving risk appetite and expectations of stronger global demand.

 

Gold, on the other hand, retreated for a second day as investors moved away from safety plays. COMEX futures fell 2.5% on Thursday, while spot gold slid 3.6% across two sessions, touching $3,313 per ounce before rebounding modestly. By Friday, spot prices stood at $3,324.75, up 0.6% on the day and nearly 3% for the week.

 

While the UK-US trade pact offered improved customs access for American exporters and some tariff relief for UK steel, autos, and aluminium, the deal was more limited in scope than initially promised. Analysts noted that without broader reforms or clearer economic direction, the agreement may do little to ease concerns over slowing global growth.

 

Bitcoin Surges on Trade Hopes and Coinbase Deal

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged past $103,000 on Thursday, marking its highest level since late January. The cryptocurrency rallied alongside equities after Trump signalled a more diplomatic approach to trade, highlighting interest from other nations to forge deals with the US.

 

 

 

2025-05-09_9-38-59_4d5e92c1178c47fb8ebe6a1229e68a45

 

 

A second catalyst came from Coinbase, which announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a major crypto derivatives platform. The news bolstered sector sentiment and contributed to Bitcoin’s 5% intraday gain, with the digital asset peaking at $102,147 by late afternoon ET.

 

The recovery follows a sharp decline to $75,000 in early April, triggered by Trump's aggressive tariff declaration on ‘Liberation Day.’ Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded on renewed optimism, with its performance echoing the strong correlation it shares with US tech stocks and broader risk assets.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
 
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
 
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 12th May 2025.
 
NASDAQ Gains Nearly 4% as US-China Agree to Lower Tariffs.

 

NASDAQ Gains Nearly 4% as US-China Agree to Lower Tariffs

The NASDAQ soars higher as the US and China finally get on the way and show signs of ‘substantial progress’. Thanks to the positive tone and recent agreements with other partners, the market is clearly leaning toward a risk-on sentiment. The NASDAQ rises to a 2-month high, but can the index rise to previous highs?

 

US-China Trade Negotiations - What We Know So Far!

Currently, the level of tariffs on Chinese goods is 145%, which, in other words, will bring imports to the US to a halt. In Trump’s recent press conference, he said he believes tariffs should be lowered to 80%. However, most economists believe the US will aim to bring them down to 55-60%.

 

On Sunday night, trade negotiations in Geneva made ‘substantial progress;’ toward easing tariffs, according to both parties. At that time, the ‘details’ remained scarce, but purely on the positive sentiment, the NASDAQ is quickly reacting. Though this morning the Treasury Secretary and chief negotiator outlined what has been agreed. As part of a 90-day deal, China will lower the tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% and the US on China from 145% to 30%. On the positive side, the tariffs are significantly lower than previous expectations, but a slight negative is that the agreement is solely for 90 days.

 

Newly imposed tariffs drove the 6-week stock market crash in March–April, during which the NASDAQ dropped by 27%. Economists say that if the US, the EU and China sign a trade agreement, the economy will avoid a recession. At the moment, the price of the NASDAQ and most indices have positively reacted to the news.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 2-Hour Chart

 

 

Before the announcement was made, the NASDAQ was trading 2.10% higher than Friday’s closing price. This was purely due to the positive tone from Sunday. The NASDAQ rose a further 1.50% in the minutes after Scott Bessent’s trade announcement.

 

NASDAQ - Inflation and Earnings Report

The price movement of the NASDAQ will also depend on the upcoming economic releases and earnings data. In terms of Quarterly Earnings Reports, Applied Materials and Cisco Systems are due to announce their reports on Wednesday and Thursday. The two companies hold a weight of 2.42% and are known to create moderate volatility. Both companies have beaten their earnings expectations over the past 12 months, and both stocks have risen in the past week. However, it's also important to note that Cisco Systems is the most influential of the two.

 

Nevertheless, traders should note that the Consumer Price Index (inflation) report can overshadow the earnings reports. The consumer inflation is due tomorrow afternoon, and the producer inflation on Thursday. Analysts expect the consumer inflation to remain at 2.4%, which remains relatively close to the Fed’s target of 2.00%. If inflation reads as per expectations, the NASDAQ may potentially react positively. A lower inflation reading will also support the NASDAQ, however, if inflation rises above 2.4%, the reading may trigger inflation concerns related to tariffs.

 

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis

On the 2-Hour timeframe, the NASDAQ continues to honour the trend-line and in the short-term the index shows significant bullish momentum. Currently, the price movement is not showing any indications of downward price movement or divergence patterns. However, the only concern for short-term traders is a retracement due to the price being overbought on most oscillators. Currently, bullish price action holds strong.

 

Key Takeaway Points:

  • US-China Trade: Positive developments in tariff talks have pushed the NASDAQ to a 2-month high, signaling strong risk-on sentiment.
  • Trade Deal Reached: Both countries agreed to lower tariffs significantly for 90 days, sparking a strong market reaction. The NASDAQ trades almost 4% higher.
  • Inflation and Earnings: Upcoming CPI data and earnings reports from Applied Materials and Cisco may drive further NASDAQ movement.
  • Technical Outlook Remains Bullish: NASDAQ shows strong upward momentum with no immediate bearish signals, though overbought conditions could prompt a short-term pullback.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
 
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
 
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 13th May 2025.
 
US-China Deal Eases Recession Fears, Goldman Raises 2025 Targets.

 

US-China Deal Eases Recession Fears, Goldman Raises 2025 Targets

Investors continue to focus on the weekend's trade deal between the US and China which continues to prompt vital trends. The agreement between the two largest economies changes the outlook for almost all assets. Although investors will also start to turn their focus to a pending trade agreement with the EU and this week’s inflation data.

 

Global Stocks Rebound Aiming To Fully Regain Previous Losses

The global stock market rose significantly after the announcement of a trade deal with China to lower tariffs. You can find the details of the agreement in yesterday’s article. The SNP500 rose 3.26% and has regained 79% of the stock market crash from March-April. Of the most influential components (stocks within the SNP500) 82% rose in value with mainly defensive stocks declining. Defensive stocks include Philip Morris, Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola.

 

Due to the trade agreement most economies have lowered their projections for a recession in 2025. Previously economists were advising a 30-50% chance of a recession in the second half of the year. However, these projections have now significantly fallen and will do further if the US and EU also sign a trade agreement.

 

In today’s early hours Goldman Sachs advised it is increasing its target within the stock market. Goldman Sachs strategists, such as David Kostin, now project the SNP500 to potentially rise to $6,500 within the next 12 months. Previously the estimate was between $6,100-6,200. However, analysts also note that the US-China agreement is still temporary and will expire in 89 days.

 

 

 

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In the short-term, investors will be laser focused on the Consumer Price Index (inflation). The CPI is due to be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US inflation rate to remain at 2.4%. If the rate reads as expected or lower, the stock market potentially can further rise as economists will expect a Federal Reserve rate cut.

 

GBPUSD - The Pound Struggles Despite Positive Employment Data

The US Dollar has been the best performing currency of the week as investors return to the Greenback. This is largely due to the trade agreement with China and investors correcting previous market pricings. However, the USD is retracing lower on Tuesday giving back some od this week’s gains.

 

The Great British Pound on the other hand is also supported by the latest employment data from this morning. Although this has not been mirrored on the price. The UK Claimant Count Change fell to +5,200 and the Average Earnings Index read 5.5%. Both announcements were better than previous expectations. However, the GBP still remains the worst performing currency of the day so far after the USD.

 

Yesterday, Bank of England Monetary Policy Director Megan Green stated that while wage and consumer price growth continues to slow, the figures remain meaningful. However, she also noted a rise in medium-term inflation expectations among the public.

 

Gold Forms a Retracement Pattern and Obtains A Divergence Indication

The price of Gold rose 0.88% on Tuesday almost fully correcting the bearish price action from Monday, bar the bearish price gap. Currently, the metal is finding support at the $3,201.00 support level from April 12th and May 1st. However, the upward price movement of the day is forming a similar pattern to previous retracements. Therefore, it is vital for Gold traders to note that the price movement could either be a retracement or change in trend.

 

 

 

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Currently, in terms of fundamentals, the data is indicating a bearish bias, although some positive factors remain. For example, if the Federal Reserve starts to take a more dovish tone due to the trade deal, Gold may continue to be used as a hedge against inflation. However, if countries continue signing trade deals and Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement in Thursday’s negotiations, renewed bearish momentum might hit Gold.

 

According to the White House, President Trump may possibly attend the negotiations on Thursday between Ukraine and Russia.

 

Key Takeaway Points:

  • The weekend trade agreement between the US and China has boosted investor confidence and shifted the outlook across global assets, reducing recession fears for 2025.
  • Global stock markets surged, with the S&P 500 up 3.26%. Defensive stocks underperformed, while 82% of components posted gains.
  • Investor attention now turns to today’s US CPI data and the potential US-EU trade agreement. A softer inflation reading could trigger Fed rate cut expectations.
  • The US Dollar leads among currencies but is slightly retracing. The Pound is supported by strong UK jobs data but remains one of the day’s weaker performers.
  • Gold rose 0.88% Tuesday but remains at risk of renewed bearish pressure if global trade deals continue and Ukraine-Russia negotiations succeed.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
 
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
 
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 14th May 2025.
 
Is the Dow Jones Oversold Despite Pharmaceutical Stock Selloff?
 

Is the Dow Jones Oversold Despite Pharmaceutical Stock Selloff?

All US indices rose in value on Tuesday except for the Dow Jones, which fell 0.64%. Very rarely, almost all global indices increase in value while one of the largest declines. What, then, is driving the Dow Jones’ decline despite the favourable market conditions?

 

Pharmaceutical Stocks Crash

One of the reasons why the Dow Jones was unable to mirror the bullish tone seen amongst the S&P 500 and NASDAQ was due to the Pharmaceutical sector. Approximately 14% of the weight within the Dow Jones is exposed to Pharmaceutical stocks, which significantly declined on Tuesday. The downward price movement within this sector was due to President Trump confirming that prescription drug prices must fall by almost 60%.

 

Here is the performance of pharmaceutical stocks in the Dow Jones on Tuesday:

 

  • UnitedHealth Group stocks fell 17.79%
  • Amgen Inc. stocks fell 1.57%
  • Johnson & Johnson stocks fell 3.70%
  • Merck & Co. stocks fell 4.72%

According to President Trump, the cost of prescription drugs in the US is sometimes up to 10 times higher than in other countries. This is despite the drug being ‘produced in the same laboratory’ using the same method and ingredients. Therefore, Trump is proposing that pharmaceutical companies lower the cost in the US and increase the cost elsewhere. However, this is triggering fear amongst investors and is prompting a selloff in the sector.

 

US Drug Prices Vs Other Countries

US Drug Prices Vs Other Countries

 

In addition to this, UnitedHealth Group stocks are under immense pressure due to the above and the company’s CEO has resigned. UnitedHealth Group in this quarter missed their earnings and revenue expectations for the first time since the 2008 banking crisis, and also gave poor guidance for the upcoming quarter.

 

Defensive Stocks Weaken Due To Improved Sentiment

Another reason for the Dow Jones’ weak price movement is its exposure to defensive stocks. Defensive stocks tend to do well during ‘risk-off’ conditions, while they may underperform in favourable stock market conditions. Defensive stocks within the Dow Jones include the following stocks:

 

McDonald’s - Stock fell 1.04% on Tuesday

 

Procter and Gamble - Stock fell 1.35% on Tuesday

 

Coca-Cola - Stock fell 0.82% on Tuesday

 

However, not all components are defensive stocks. The Dow Jones also has growth stocks within the index, which include the likes of NVIDIA and Microsoft. NVIDIA stocks were the best-performing stocks on Tuesday, increasing 5.63%. However, NVIDIA stocks only hold a weight of 1.78%.

 

Dow Jones - Upcoming Performance

The price movement of the Dow Jones is largely moving sideways on Wednesday after the decline on Tuesday. However, investors should note that some of the positive developments driving other indices higher also apply to the Dow Jones, even if its price has not reflected the same movement.

 

This includes the lower inflation figures from yesterday. The US Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) fell from 2.4% to 2.3%, the lowest since 2021, and core inflation figures remained at 2.8%. The lower inflation rate is likely to allow the Federal Reserve to opt for a cautious rate cut in July, even though this has not yet been signalled. Nonetheless, interest rate cuts and a better economic outlook are likely to positively influence all indices globally. Currently, the Dow Jones is 7.00% away from its all-time high.

 

Notably, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday reduced their projected likelihood of a US recession by year-end from 45% to 35%, while also raising their economic growth forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%.

 

Dow Jones - Daily ChartDow Jones - Daily Chart

 

The price of the Dow Jones is trading within a range during this morning’s Asian Session, but continues to remain above most trend lines. The VWAP is also slightly lower than the current price, giving a bullish bias. If the price increases above the $42,220.00, buy signals are likely to materialise due to the bullish breakout and crossover. However, if the range continues, the average price will be $42,174.18.

 

Key Takeaway Points:

  • The Dow Jones does not follow the market trend and remains one of the only global indices falling in value. However, some analysts believe the index is partially oversold.
  • Dow Jones fell 0.64% as pharma stocks dropped sharply after Trump called for major drug price cuts.
  • UnitedHealth stock fell nearly 18% after missing earnings, weak guidance, and news of the CEO’s resignation.
  • Defensive names like Coca-Cola and McDonald's declined as risk-on sentiment hurt safe-haven stocks.
  • Lower inflation and reduced recession fears support a positive outlook, but the Dow still trails other indices.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
 
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
 
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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