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Pound Rises Against Dollar, Eyes Key Levels

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Solid ECN – The British pound is on an upward trajectory against the U.S. Dollar, with the exchange rate hovering around 1.2600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is poised to enter the overbought zone, suggesting that the pair might soon test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before potentially launching on another bullish wave.

Furthermore, the 61.8% level, or the 1.2668 support, presents a favorable opportunity for traders to place bids in the GBPUSD bullish market. Should the 61.8% level hold, the next target for buyers could be the February high, around the 1.277 resistance mark.

Conversely, a failure to maintain levels above 1.2668 could result in the price descending to test the 50% Fibonacci support. This shift would signify a notable change in market sentiment, potentially leading to reevaluating the current bullish trend.

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Bitcoin's Uptrend Amid Range-Bound Trading and EMA Support

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Solid ECN – Bitcoin has been between $50,000 and $53,000 and has stayed above the 50 EMA, as shown in the 4-hour chart. When writing, the BTCUSD is trading around $51,600, with the technical indicators promising a continuation of the uptrend.

The RSI indicator flips above 50, and the AO bars have turned green.

The $50,583 level serves as the support to the primary bullish trend. Therefore, from a technical standpoint, if this minor support holds, the uptrend will likely continue, with $53,020 as its first target, followed by the psychological resistance level at $55,000.

On the flip side, if the BTCUSD price falls below the 50 EMA, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level will be the first barrier for the bears to confront. This level is further backed up by the Ichimoku cloud, which makes it an exciting price area for the bulls to add new bids.

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Offshore Yuan's Rise Amid Weakening Dollar

Solid ECN – The offshore yuan has seen a notable appreciation, reaching its highest level in three weeks, climbing toward 7.20 against the dollar. This rise is primarily attributed to the dollar's decline amid increasing uncertainties regarding future interest rate decisions in the United States. Additionally, the Chinese currency is riding a wave of positive sentiment as investors show renewed interest in Chinese markets. This is evidenced by the significant upswing in mainland stocks, which have soared their highest points in two months. This surge in investor confidence and currency value reflects a broader trend of optimism in Chinese financial assets.
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China's Aggressive Monetary Easing

In a move that surprised many, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) significantly reduced its five-year loan prime rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.95%. This decision exceeded the expectations of a modest 15 basis points cut and marked the most substantial reduction since this rate's inception in 2019. The aggressive cut underscores China's intensified efforts to stimulate economic growth amidst various domestic and global challenges. However, the PBOC opted to maintain the one-year loan prime rate at 3.45%, indicating a nuanced approach to monetary policy. These measures are part of a broader strategy to invigorate the Chinese economy, reflecting a balanced mix of short-term stability and long-term growth initiatives.

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Unleashing Capital for Growth

Earlier in the month, the PBOC took another significant step by reducing the reserve requirements for banks by 50 basis points. This strategic decision has released approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term capital, aiming to lubricate the economy's gears by enhancing liquidity and encouraging lending. This substantial capital is anticipated to bolster economic activities, support small and medium-sized enterprises, and stimulate consumer spending. By easing the reserve requirements, the PBOC is providing banks with a greater capacity to finance business projects and consumer needs, thereby fueling the overall growth trajectory of the Chinese economy amidst evolving global financial landscapes.
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Euro Faces Bearish Trends Against U.S. Dollar

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Solid ECN – The Euro trades around 1.083 against the U.S. Dollar in today's trading session, remaining within the bearish channel. Despite an upward jump in Friday's session, the bears quickly pushed the price back down, firmly within the channel, indicating that the bulls' attempt to break out of the bearish channel might have failed.

From a technical standpoint, as long as the pair trades below the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level, the downtrend will likely persist. The 1.0802 level acts as minor support; if this level is breached, the decline is expected to continue. In this scenario, the following targets for the bear market would be around the 1.076 mark.

Conversely, the 38.2% Fibonacci level serves as the primary resistance point. Should the price sustain itself above this level, it could invalidate the current bearish scenario.

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GBPUSD Bullish Trend Faces Slowdown

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Solid ECN – The GBPUSD trades inside the bullish channel and above the 50 exponential moving average (EMA). This indicates that the primary trend is bullish. However, the awesome oscillator shows signs of a slowdown in the trend.

From a technical standpoint, the 50%Fibonacci retracement level supports the bull market, and the bottom line of the flag further supports this zone. Therefore, as long as the pair trades above it, the technical analysis for the GBPUSD predicts more upward momentum. In this case, the channel's upper band can be considered the next bullish target. It is worth noting that the price must exceed the declining trendline, depicted in blue, to reach the target.

Conversely, the above technical analysis would be invalidated if the price falls below %50 Fibonacci. If this scenario continues, traders should wait to see how the price reacts to the 50 EMA and the Ichimoku cloud support zone.

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AUDUSD Trading Analysis: Clinging to Fibonacci Support and 50 EMA

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Solid ECN – In today's trading sessions, the Australian dollar trades around 0.655 against the U.S. Dollar, clinging to the 23.6% Fibonacci support and the 50 EMA. However, other technical indicators are providing a bearish signal. The RSI indicator has crossed below the median line, and the bars of the awesome oscillator have turned red and are about to flip below the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the 0.6532 level supports the bullish momentum, which broke out from the descending trendline, depicted in blue on the AUDUSD 4-hour chart. If the price stays above this level, the 38.2% Fibonacci support could still be the target. This resistance level is further supported by the upper line of the bullish flag, depicted in red on the chart.

Despite these factors, the bullish scenario seems weak for this pair. This can be figured from the candlesticks, where the number of full-bodied bear candles exceeds the bull candles.

Conversely, if the AUDUSD price falls below the 50 EMA, the decline from 0.6594 could lead to the bottom of the bullish flag. This scenario is more likely to play out.

Therefore, traders should monitor the 50 exponential moving average closely.

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US Building Permits Dip Slightly in January 2024

Solid ECN – In January 2024, the US saw a slight drop in building permits by 0.3%, adjusting to 1.489 million from the previous month's 1.493 million, yet this was still above the early estimate of 1.470 million. The permits for more significant developments, specifically those with five or more units, decreased significantly by 5.8% to 419 thousand, marking the lowest point since October 2020.

However, there was a positive turn in the permits for single-family homes, which climbed 2.2% to reach a 20-month peak of 1.021 million. Geographically, permit numbers went down in the South by 7.8% to 793 thousand but rose in other areas: 0.3% to 339 thousand in the West, 5.6% to 208 thousand in the Midwest, and a substantial 52% to 149 thousand in the Northeast.

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USDJPY's Upward Trend and Fibonacci Support

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The USDJPY currency pair exhibits upward movement in today's trading session. Notably, the pair trades above the bullish flag's 23.6% Fibonacci support level. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is hovering near the 70 level. This suggests the market has room to ascend before the indicator enters the overbought area.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish despite the AO signaling otherwise. The next bullish milestone could be the 151.9 mark if the price remains within the bullish flag.

Conversely, the bull market would be invalidated if the USDJPY falls below 23.6%.

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Natural Gas Prices Edge Up Amid Oversupply Issues

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Solid ECN – US natural gas prices slightly increased to just over $1.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) after falling by 7.5% in the previous session. This change is happening as the market deals with an excess supply, high levels of storage, and reduced need for heating because of the hot winter. Nevertheless, there is some upward pressure on prices as producers cut back on how much they produce.Β 

Although there was a short interruption in supply in January because of freezing weather, gas production is still at all-time highs. The warm conditions have resulted in much higher than average gas reserves, with recent data from the Energy Information Administration indicating that storage is 22.3% above normal levels. Chesapeake Energy has reduced its production outlook for 2024 by about 30% after a significant price fall to the lowest point in over three years. Important companies like Antero Resources, Comstock Resources, and EQT have also reduced their drilling and production activities due to the current market scenario.
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Yen Stays Low as Japan Faces Slower Inflation

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Solid ECN – The value of the Japanese yen remained weak, staying over 150 against the dollar, following recent inflation data. In January, Japan's central and underlying inflation rates dropped to 2.2% and 2%, down from December's 2.6% and 2.3%, marking the lowest since March 2022. Despite this, the underlying inflation was still higher than the anticipated 1.8%, suggesting a slower decrease in inflation than expected. With inflation easing, the Bank of Japan will likely continue its lenient monetary policies for a while longer.Β 

The yen is also struggling due to unfavorable trading strategies and weak economic figures, leading to a recession at the end of the year. This poor performance has led to official comments to support the yen, the lowest among major global currencies this year.

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USDJPY Pair Analysis: Bullish Channel and Ichimoku Cloud

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Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is testing the lower band of the bullish channel, which coincides with the Ichimoku cloud. The 4-hour chart has formed a doji candlestick, which can be interpreted as a signal for the continuation of the bull market.

From a technical standpoint, if the Ichimoku cloud remains intact, the bullish trend should continue, and the first milestone would be the 150.8 resistance.

On the other hand, if the USDJPY price falls below the Ichimoku cloud, the consolidation might extend to the 148.9 support.

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EURUSD Trading at 1.085 Amid Multiple Resistance Levels

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Solid ECN – The EURUSD currency pair trades around 1.085 today. Currently, the price is in conjunction with multiple resistance levels. These include the 38.2% Fibonacci support, the upper band of the bearish flag, and the rising trendline. While the technical indicators give mixed signals, the EURUSD 4-hour chart has formed a long-wick candlestick pattern, which can be interpreted as the bears being more active than the bulls in the current session.Β 

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend remains bearish as long as the price is suppressed below 1.0865s, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. However, for the downtrend to continue, the price must fall below the ascending, precisely the 1.0832 mark.

On the other hand, the uptick momentum that began on February 13th should continue if the bulls cross above the Fibonacci level under discussion and maintain a position above it.

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Gold Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerge Amid Technical Indicators

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Solid ECN – The price of gold has fallen to \$2,030 against the U.S. dollar, reaching the lower band of the bullish flag, depicted in red. The Awesome Oscillator indicator shows signs of divergence, suggesting that the bears attempt to cross below the \$2,028 threshold. Adding to this bearish sentiment, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is closing below the median line, lending credibility to the recent XAU/USD price decline.

From a technical perspective, for the bull market to continue, the price of gold needs to stabilize above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a task that it failed to achieve this week.

On the flip side, if the price crosses the bullish flag and maintains a position below the \$2,039 resistance level, the decline will likely extend its reach to the Ichimoku cloud, a resistance level further powered by the 50% Fibonacci level.

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Sweden's Producer Prices Drop Slows in January 2024

Solid ECN – In January 2024, Sweden saw a 2.3% annual decrease in producer prices, which improved from the previous month's 7.7% decline. This falling price trend continues in its ninth month, but the decrease is the least since July 2023. The price drop for energy products was less steep (-10.9% compared to -37.6% in December 2023).Β 

Meanwhile, prices for consumer and capital goods slowed to 1.5% and 4%, respectively, from higher rates the previous month. Ignoring energy products, producer prices fell by 0.5% in January, a change from a 1.4% increase the month before. Month-over-month, producer prices increased by 0.3%, recovering from a 1.6% drop.

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EURUSD Analysis: Bearish Trend is Likely to Continue

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Solid ECN – The Euro trades around 1.082 against the U.S. Dollar in Wednesday's trading session, stabilizing itself below the broken ascending trendline, as illustrated in the 4-hour chart. This breakout could be interpreted as a temporary or long-term shift in market direction, transitioning from a bull to a bear market.

Furthermore, as the EURUSD tests the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, technical indicators suggest that the decline, which began from the 1.0865 higher low, is likely to continue.

Therefore, from a technical standpoint, with the price maintaining its position within the bearish flag, depicted in black lines, the bear market is expected to extend and potentially test the 50% Fibonacci support, followed by the 61.8% level.

Conversely, the 1.0866 level acts as resistance. The bearish outlook should be invalidated if the EURUSD price exceeds this level.

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U.S. Dollar Leads in Today's Market Against GBP

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Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar is leading in today's trading against the pound sterling, with the GBPUSD pair trading around 1.263. The Ichimoku cloud supports this price area. From a technical standpoint, for the downtrend to continue, bears must stabilize the price below this level. Although technical indicators support a bearish scenario, there is still a chance for the bulls to take control, especially if the 1.2611 level holds firm.

In conclusion, the price must fall below the cloud for the bear market to extend further. Otherwise, we will likely witness the GBPUSD pair rise again, aiming for the 1.2709 resistance level.

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Recent Drop in 30-Year Mortgage Rates to 7.04

The standard interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with standard loan amounts (up to $766,550) fell slightly by 0.02% to 7.04% for the week ending February 23, 2024, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. This figure is 0.33% above what it was a year ago. Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist at MBA, noted in a statement that the recent surge in rates has led to a reduction in mortgage applications, especially impacting those applying for FHA and VA refinancing loans.

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USDJPY Bullish Trend: Key Resistance and Potential Invalidations

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Solid ECN – As expected, the USDJPY price rose from the 150.0 mark, maintaining a bullish trend due to this support from the Ichimoku cloud and the bullish channel. For the pair to continue its growth, the bulls must break above the 150.88 resistance.

Conversely, the bull market could be invalidated if the price dips below the cloud, specifically below the 150.0 mark.

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Gold Rises Amid US Rate Cut Speculation; Eurozone Woes

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Solid ECN – Gold prices slightly increased to about $2,035 per ounce this Wednesday, influenced by the decline in yields. This change comes as traders evaluate the potential for more accessible monetary policies before releasing important US inflation data tomorrow.Β 

Additionally, the financial community is keeping a close eye on the speeches from various Federal Reserve officials. Regarding broader economic indicators, the US economy expanded by 3.2% in the fourth quarter, a bit lower than the initially predicted 3.3%, demonstrating a robust financial framework.

Investors predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates in March and May, with a more than half likelihood of a rate reduction by June. In other news, the economic mood in the Eurozone has taken a downturn in February, falling below expectations and indicating a drop in consumer demand.

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Offshore Yuan Hits Week Low Amid China's Economic Strain

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Solid ECN – The offshore yuan has dropped to its lowest level in a week, nearing 7.22 against the dollar, due to ongoing deflationary pressures, economic growth hurdles, and issues in the property market in China, affecting investor mood. There's also a wary eye on Beijing, as there's an expectation of further policy relaxation to prop up the economy.Β 

Just last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) significantly reduced its five-year loan prime rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.95%, a larger cut than the anticipated 15 basis points. This reduction, the sharpest since the rate's 2019 inception, aims to stimulate growth. Yet, the PBOC kept the one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.45%. Earlier in the month, the PBOC also cut the reserve requirements for banks by 50 basis points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term funds.

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