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AUDUSD, the instrument is testing 0.7500 for the breakout

During the Asian session, the AUDUSD pair is actively growing, re-testing the level of 0.7500 for the breakout. The instrument is developing a "bullish" momentum formed at the end of the last week. However, the general dynamics of the short-term outlook remain flat for now.

A strong report on the US labor market, published on Friday, did not allow quotations to consolidate on new local highs. However, the data from Australia were also positive. Thus, the AiG manufacturing activity index rose from 53.2 to 55.7 points for March, which outpaced the average market forecasts, while the Australian Commonwealth Bank manufacturing PMI index rose from 57.3 to 57.7 points over the same period against neutral expectations of investors. The National Reserve Bank Commodity Price Index accelerated from 34% to 40.9% in March, well above the expected 10% rise. At the same time, statistics on the credit market disappointed traders: for February, the volume of mortgage loans issued decreased by 4.7% after increasing by 1% last month, although preliminary market estimates suggested an increase of 1%. An additional "bearish" factor for the asset is the index of the number of vacancies published today by the Australian financial group ANZ. For March, the indicator slowed down sharply from 8.4% to 0.4%, significantly worse than market forecasts of 1.6%.


Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily rising: the price range is actively narrowing, indicating ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator falls, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic interrupted its confident fall and reversed into a horizontal plane approximately in the center of its working area.

Resistance levels: 0.755, 0.76, 0.765, 0.77 | Support levels: 0.75, 0.744, 0.7366, 0.73


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NZDUSD, import costs for New Zealand rise

Yesterday, the New Zealand news agency Stats NZ published a report on price dynamics in the commodity market: imports of petroleum products increased by 81% in January and February, imports of fertilizers rose by 161%, and equipment – increased by 14%. According to experts, the negative dynamics of indicators are caused by high global inflation rates, which have already caused price adjustments for food products in the country's supermarkets. The current growth will undoubtedly affect sales dynamics, which may put pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

The USD Index is at stable levels above 98.000. Despite the US unemployment rate decline to 3.6% last month from 3.8% in February, local data recorded another decrease in Nonfarm Payrolls to 431K from 750K, while the average wage rose immediately by 5.6%. Strong data confirmed that the US Federal Reserve would decide to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at once during its May meeting.


The NZDUSD pair moves within the local rising channel, rising along the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6989, 0.7201 | Support levels: 0.6864, 0.6536

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USDCHF, swiss inflation exceeds 2%

The franc continues trading at stable levels paired with the USD, after the Swiss Federal Statistical Office published a report on consumer prices. Now the USD/CHF pair is correcting around 0.9260.

According to the data presented, the consumer price index in March increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month and reached 103.0 points, which is significantly higher than the 100.0 points recorded at the end of 2020, while the annual figure was 2.4% instead of February 2.2%. Thus, inflation in Switzerland has reached the upper limit of 2.0% set by the National Bank, which in the future may lead to a revision of one of the most conservative monetary systems in the world.

Meanwhile, the US currency is under pressure from the multidirectional statistics from the labor market, released last Friday. The number of jobs in the public non-agricultural sector decreased to 431K from 750K a month earlier, and in the private sector – to 426K from 739K. Nevertheless, the overall unemployment rate in the USA dropped from 3.8% to 3.6%, while investors expected only 3.7%, and thus the positive dynamics in the labor market allows the US Fed to continue its policy of tightening monetary policy. In May, the market expects an interest rate increase by 50 basis points at once, as well as the launch of a quantitative tightening program, which will reduce the balance of the American regulator.


On the global chart of the asset, the price continues to trade within the global ascending channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators are in the state of an updated sell signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are consolidated below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has moved into the sales zone.

Support levels: 0.9192, 0.9086 | Resistance levels: 0.9295, 0.944

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GBPUSD, flat dynamics in the short term

The pound shows a weak upward dynamics of trading during the morning session, developing the "bullish" momentum formed the day before, when GBP/USD retreated from the local lows of March 30. Demand for the British currency remains quite low, and in general, the instrument shows rather flat dynamics in the short term, due to growing risks of increased pressure against the Russian economy due to the situation in Ukraine.

Western countries are discussing the introduction of another package of sanctions against the Russian economy, referring to the crimes of the Russian military in the Ukrainian city of Bucha. New restrictions could include a ban on Russian ships using EU ports, an embargo on coal, oil or gas supplies, and personal sanctions.

The UK announced a complete embargo on Russian oil imports back in March, as the dependence of the British economy on energy from the Russian Federation is significantly lower than that of European countries. However, prices for "black gold", gasoline and gas are growing here too, threatening the pace of national economic recovery. Earlier, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, warned that the country could face the most powerful crisis since 1970, and inflation by the end of 2022 could reach 9%.

It should also be noted that the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said that he had instructed the Royal Mint to develop and issue its own non-fungible token (NFT) by this summer. Thus, the British authorities are trying to take a leading position in the crypto space and take the regulation of digital assets in the country to a new level. In particular, some tokens will be included in the national payment system to legalize work with them, traders will be able to receive advice when trading, and groups will be created to interact with crypto assets, chaired by ministers and members of regulatory bodies in the UK and industry.


In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic turned into a horizontal plane in the center of its area, indicating an approximate balance of power in the short and ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.315, 1.32, 1.325, 1.33 | Support levels: 1.31, 1.305, 1.3, 1.296


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EURUSD, the euro develops a downtrend


The European currency is trading with a slight decrease against the US dollar during the Asian session, testing 1.0900 for a breakdown and updating local lows from March 9. Market sentiment correlates with the predominantly "bearish" trend in EURUSD since the end of last week.

Investors are assessing the prospects for further acceleration of inflation in the region as the EU considers the introduction of another package of sanctions against the Russian economy after evidence of war crimes in the Ukrainian city of Bucha. It is expected that the new restrictions will affect the import of coal for 4 billion euros per year, as well as equipment for the gas industry, transport and other industries for 10 billion euros per year. The sanctions will also affect the ban on investment, in particular; it is planned to introduce new measures against financial institutions and state-owned enterprises, as well as a number of representatives of the Russian authorities and their families. The European Union will stop buying fertilizers, timber and a number of food products from Russia, which in the current realities is estimated at about 5.5 billion dollars a year. Imports of Russian oil, as well as natural gas, remain practically unchanged, since for many EU countries this is a fundamental issue of energy security. In particular, Germany and Hungary oppose a complete embargo. At the moment, the EU buys almost 40% of all gas and about 60% of oil and oil products from Russia.

Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published on Tuesday turned out to be restrainedly optimistic, but did not have a noticeable impact on the market. The Composite Manufacturing PMI in the eurozone in March rose from 54.5 to 54.9 points with a neutral forecast. The Services PMI for the same period increased from 54.8 to 55.6 points, while analysts did not expect any changes here either.


Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is expanding, but at the moment it is not keeping up with the surge of "bearish" sentiment. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains stable downward direction but is located in close proximity to the zero level, which indicates the risks of oversold euro in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1, 1.1051, 1.11 | Support levels: 1.09, 1.086, 1.08, 1.0767


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S&P 500, the US market is correcting


The US stock market continues to evaluate the recent revision of financial forecasts from leading analytical agencies. The day before, analysts at UBS Group AG raised the target price of Meta Platforms Inc. shares for Q2 2022 from 280 to 300 dollars. In turn, Chevron Corp., according to UBS Group AG estimates, will rise from 150 to 192 dollars. Prior to this, Goldman Sachs Group analysts also raised their forecast for the issuer's shares.

The US bond market is currently experiencing active growth: the rate of return on 10-year Treasury bonds rises by 2.44% and by 1.89% on conservative 20-year ones. More dynamic growth is traditionally demonstrated by short-term assets: annual bonds grow by 2.55%, and 6-month bonds rise by 4.26%.


The index quotes are traded in a local uptrend, having overcome the resistance line of the lateral channel the day before. Technical indicators are holding a local buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the buy zone.

Support levels: 4470.0, 4216 | Resistance levels: 4630, 4800

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The US dollar shows weak gains against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, testing $124 for a breakout. The USDJPY pair is developing an uptrend, formed at the end of last week, and is updating local highs from March 29. Moderate support for the US currency is provided by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US on business activity from ISM.

At the same time, the general situation on the market is changing little and the demand for the dollar is still held against the backdrop of deteriorating growth prospects for the global economy. In addition, traders expect further steps from the US Federal Reserve towards tightening monetary policy. In May, the American regulator will meet for a regular meeting, following which the interest rate can be increased immediately by 50 basis points. The Bank of Japan, in turn, is forced to maintain a soft monetary policy in an effort to overcome deflationary risks. The day before, the Governor of the Japanese regulator Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking in Parliament, said that the recent fluctuations in the yen were too rapid, and the stability of the national currency is extremely important. The official reiterated that a weak yen is good for the economy as a whole as it helps boost overseas profits for companies and stressed that the central bank will continue to buy unlimited 10-year bonds if long-term interest rates rise quickly.

Tuesday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Thus, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in March strengthened from 48.7 to 49.4 points. At the same time, Overall Household Spending in February slowed down sharply from 6.9% to 1.1%, which turned out to be noticeably worse than analysts' forecasts at the level of 2.7%.


Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD has reversed to growth having formed a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic grows more actively and is approaching its highs, which reflects risks of the overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 124, 124.5, 125.09 | Support levels: 123.02, 122, 121.26, 120.5


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The Australian dollar shows a rather active decline during the Asian session, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The US dollar is gaining in value after yesterday's publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Fed (FOMC), which pushed AUDUSD to new lows below 0.75.

Traders noted an even more resolute attitude of the regulator regarding the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the country. In particular, the Committee spoke in favor of reducing the Fed's balance sheet by 95 billion dollars a month, although earlier experts assumed that the volume could be only about 60 billion dollars. The dollar was also supported by comments from US Federal Reserve Board member Lael Brainard, who warned that the agency may need more than one rate hike by 0.50% at once during 2022.

In turn, the Reserve Bank of Australia, at a meeting held on April 5, decided to keep the official monetary rate at a record low level of 0.10%. The monetary policy statement said that the Australian economy remains resilient and spending is on the rise after the tide of the pandemic caused by the Omicron strain of coronavirus has subsided.

Some pressure on the positions of the Australian currency today is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Export volumes in February showed zero dynamics after an increase of 8% in January. Imports at the same time rose sharply by 12% after falling by 2% a month earlier. As a result, the trade surplus in February fell sharply from 12.891 billion to 7.457 billion Australian dollars, which was significantly below the market's expectations of 12.000 billion Australian dollars. AiG Services PMI in March fell from 60 to 56.2 points.


Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show active growth. The price range is sharply narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD reversed downwards having formed a new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its lows, indicating the risks of oversold AUD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.75, 0.755, 0.76, 0.765 | Support levels: 0.744, 0.7366, 0.73, 0.725


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In the absence of positive drivers that can reverse or temporarily stop the current downtrend, the European currency continues to lose value, correcting around 1.0913 actively.

The problems associated with the energy confrontation between the EU and Russia are growing, and after statements by several German officials about the refusal of gas supplies, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov, in an interview with the LCI television channel, said that the EU countries could permanently lose access to cheap "blue fuel" in in the event of termination of cooperation since Russia will look for other markets. The recently published data on the producer price index also did not add positively to traders, which was worse than expected: the February indicator was 1.1%, which is below the forecasted 1.3%, and the annual growth was recorded at 31.4%, which is also below preliminary estimates of the market at 31.5%.

The index of the American currency could not overcome the psychologically important level of around 100 points and remained lower, around 99.600. The minutes of the meeting of the Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) published yesterday confirmed analysts' forecasts that the regulator consolidates to accelerate the increase in the interest rate and also has plans to significantly reduce the balance sheet capital, according to preliminary estimates, in the amount of up to 2T dollars.


The asset is moving within a wide downward channel and has begun working out the local Flag pattern. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms down bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1070, 1.1232 | Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0600

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Current Trend
GBPUSD has been fluctuating in a wide range of 1.3045-1.3106 over the past three trading sessions, continuing to lose value after consolidating below the April 6 low at 1.3045 following the release of "hawkish" Minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At the moment, quotes are consolidating near the level of 1.3060.

The situation around Ukraine is still in the spotlight. Western countries continue to introduce new restrictions against the Russian economy, primarily aimed at reducing or completely banning energy imports. The export of high-tech equipment, cars and agricultural machinery is also noticeably limited. However, these measures have not yet brought the expected effect, since the special military operation continues. At the same time, the position of the Western authorities has become a catalyst for updating record highs in commodity markets, which threatens to increase inflation in many regions of the world. Against this background, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the UK intends to use more fossil fuels and commission one new nuclear reactor per year in order to maintain energy security. In addition, the country's government intends to abandon imported oil and gas in order to avoid a rapid increase in energy tariffs in the future, so this autumn another round of distribution of licenses for the development of the North Sea shelf by British oil and gas enterprises will be held.

The macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom released the day before only confirmed the fact of a rapid increase in inflation: the Halifax House Price Index accelerated from 0.8% to 1.4% in March, while analysts expected a slowdown in dynamics to 0.4%.


Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is trying to reverse upwards and form a new buy signal (the histogram is trying to consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, trying to retreat from the oversold area (below the level of "20").

Resistance levels: 1.31, 1.315, 1.32, 1.325 | Support levels: 1.305, 1.3, 1.296, 1.29.


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Current trend
This week, the EURUSD pair continued to decline and is currently testing the 1.0864 mark (Murray [1/8]). The movement of the pair has recently been influenced by expectations of further actions from the US Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB).

The comments of the officials of the American regulator and the minutes of its last meeting look much more "hawkish" than a similar document of the European department, which became a catalyst for strengthening the US currency. Last week, the governor of the US Fed, Lael Brainard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, and the chairman of the Philadelphia Fed, Patrick Harker, spoke in favor of continuing to raise interest rates and sharply reducing the regulator's balance sheet. The protocols indicated that it could begin in May and would amount to 95B dollars per month. At the same time, the correction of the indicator may reach 0.50%. Investors fear that too rapid tightening of monetary policy may lead to a downturn in the economy, but officials are confident that it will stand the test, since the recorded growth is strong enough.

Against this background, the European currency looks less attractive for investment, experiencing significant pressure due to the Ukrainian crisis. The most negative of its consequences is an increase in inflation, which affects household incomes and reduces demand, however, unlike the US Fed, the ECB has not yet taken active actions to reduce price growth. At the last meeting of the regulator, officials agreed to stop buying bonds in Q3 2022, but did not make specific decisions on further tightening of monetary policy, probably still considering the factors of inflation growth temporary, although bidders have long been expecting the start of a rate hike cycle. Moreover, earlier, the EU authorities decided to abandon the supply of Russian coal, which can only increase energy inflation.


Consolidation of the price of the EUR/USD pair below the 1.0864 mark (Murray [1/8] the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) will give the prospect of continuing the decline to the levels of 1.0742 (Murray [0/8]) and 1.0620 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the 1.0986 mark (Murray [2/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), the breakout of which will allow the instrument to strengthen to 1.1108 (Murray [3/8]), 1.1230 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, but the Stochastic is preparing to leave the oversold zone and form a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1.0986, 1.1108, 1.123 | Support levels: 1.0864, 1.0742, 1.062

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The US dollar shows strong growth against the Japanese yen during trading in Asia, continuing the development of the "bullish" trend from April 1. At the moment, USDJPY is updating local highs from March 28 and is again preparing to test strong resistance at 125.

At the beginning of the week, the "bulls" are very optimistic, but the growth factors change slightly: the US dollar is still receiving support as a "safe" asset, becoming more attractive to investors as the US Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy. Earlier, representatives of the regulator spoke in favor of raising the rate by 50 basis points at once during the May meeting. At the same time, as expected, a program of quantitative tightening may be launched in order to reduce the balance sheet of the Fed.

In turn, the Bank of Japan is far from a possible start of tightening monetary policy. Last week, the regulator's former chief economist, Hideo Hayakawa, predicted that the agency could change current parameters as early as July as worries about the depreciation of the yen and rising inflation rise. Hayakawa's views stand in stark contrast to those of Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has repeatedly stated the regulator's intention to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy even after other major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raise interest rates.

The macroeconomic statistics released in Japan on Friday provided little support to the yen. Eco Watchers Current Situation Index in March rose from 37.7 to 47.8 points, which turned out to be 10 points better than market expectations. Eco Watchers Outlook for the same period strengthened from 44.4 to 50.1 points, while the forecast was 43.5 points.


Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range is slightly expanding, but it fails to catch the surge of "bullish" sentiment at the moment. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs is reversing into a horizontal plane, indicating overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 125.09, 125.6, 126, 126.5 | Support levels: 124.50, 124, 123.02, 122


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The New Zealand dollar shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against the US dollar during today's Asian session, consolidating near the opening levels and 0.6835. NZDUSD fell sharply on Friday, recording its first fall in four weeks. Investors' fears about a series of aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, as well as changing commodity prices were the catalysts for the sales of the currency. In addition, the negative dynamics of the instrument was provoked by a reduction in the spread between government bonds of New Zealand and the United States. 10-year New Zealand Treasury bonds at the end of last week showed a yield of 3.274%, and 10-year US bonds showed 2.740%.

The pressure on NZD/USD is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales in March decreased by 1.3% after a sharp decline of 7.8% a month earlier. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at -0.6%. In annual terms, sales decreased by 0.5% after rising by 1.1% in February. Markets projected a sharp 9.7% growth. Later, buying activity on the instrument was supported by encouraging statistics from China. The Consumer Price Index in China in March showed an increase of 1.5%, accelerating from 0.9% shown in February. The real dynamics turned out to be noticeably better than analysts' forecasts at 1.2%.

Another "bullish" factor is the new EU sanctions policy on the Russian economy. In particular, New Zealand coal exporters positively perceived the possibility of introducing restrictions on the supply of solid fuel from the Russian Federation this summer. Currently, New Zealand exports more than a third of all coal mined in the country.


On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into the descending plane. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bearish" activity at the moment. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is about to test the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic, having reached its lows, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating risks of oversold NZD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6874, 0.6924, 0.696, 0.7 | Support levels: 0.6812, 0.6766, 0.6732, 0.67


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The AUDUSD pair is falling to the support level of 0.7430 after strengthening the US dollar due to "hawkish" statements by the US Federal Reserve members.

Thus, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister is confident that the country will be able to avoid a recession, as the regulator will continue to tighten monetary policy, even though inflation is likely to exceed the target value of 2% next year. The dollar was further supported by the US Initial Jobless Claims, published last Thursday: the figure consolidated around 166K, which is significantly less than the forecast of 200K and lower than the previous value of 171K. Positive dynamics reflect a strong recovery national labor market.

The Australian dollar lost ground after the correction in oil prices, and the pair AUD/USD fell to 0.7430. However, according to the country's financial stability report published last Friday, large borrowers expect an increase in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which could push the national currency quotes up to renew the last year's high.

The long-term trend is upwards. After reaching 0.7650, the instrument corrected to 0.7430. If it holds, the growth will continue with the first target at the high of the previous week. The breakdown of the support level of 0.7430 allows a correction to the 0.7300 area.


The mid-term trend may reverse downwards as the price trades below the key support at 0.7496–0.7479. If the AUD/USD pair rate consolidates below the support, zone 2 (0.7331–0.7314) will become the sell target. If quotes return to the 0.7496 area this week, the uptrend will intensify, and the new target will be 0.7655.

Resistance levels: 0.765, 0.78 | Support levels: 0.743, 0.73


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The Australian dollar is showing a weak corrective growth against the US dollar during the Asian session, recovering from a four-day "bearish" rally. The instrument is testing the level of 0.7420 for a breakout, retreating from its local lows of March 22. The positions of the asset remain under pressure from the development of a new wave of coronavirus incidence in China. The country's government has announced strict quarantine measures that will also affect Shanghai, a major financial and industrial center, which consumes about 4% of all oil purchased by China. As a result of the lockdown, many companies such as Tesla Inc., Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, Volkswagen AG, as well as some suppliers to Apple Inc. were forced to stop their activities. In total, a record 130K new cases of COVID-19 infection have been detected in Shanghai since March 1 this year.

Nevertheless, the Australian dollar was supported at the beginning of the week by optimistic macroeconomic statistics from China. The Consumer Price Index in China in annual terms in March accelerated from 0.9% to 1.5%, which was better than market expectations at 1.2%. On a monthly basis, however, inflation showed only zero dynamics after rising by 0.6% in February. Today's data support the buying mood for the instrument with strong statistics from Australia. National Australia Bank's Business Conditions in March strengthened from 9 to 18 points, while the Business Confidence index for the same period rose from 13 to 16 points, with a slowdown forecast to 8 points.


Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is expanding, however, it does not keep up with the activity of trading in the last few days, which signals in favor of the development of corrective dynamics. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its lows, is reversing upwards, indicating risks of a strongly oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.745, 0.75, 0.755, 0.76 | Support levels: 0.7398, 0.7366, 0.73, 0.725


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Activity on the market remains quite high, but trades in the short term are mostly flat. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on consumer inflation in the US. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 2.81% amid "hawkish" plans by the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a meeting in May and the beginning of a reduction in assets against the background of 40-year record inflation in the country. Markets are confident that the regulator will tighten its monetary policy even faster to curb inflation. Along with fears that the recent surge in commodity prices will further exacerbate consumer inflation, it has pushed US Treasury yields to new multi-year highs. According to analysts, the regulator will decide to raise the rate immediately by 0.50% at the May meeting, but much will depend on the economic situation.

The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB) will also meet this week. Experts expect the Canadian agency to raise the interest rate by 0.5%, while the ECB is likely to keep a wait-and-see position again. Nevertheless, inflation in the EU continues to beat records, which means that pressure on the position of the European regulator is increasing, and traders expect to hear clear plans for further prospects for monetary policy. The original plans to launch a rate hike cycle in June may be revised.


On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving flat. The price range remains virtually unchanged but remains spacious enough for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a very poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic reversed downwards at 80, reacting to the "bearish" nature of trading at the end of last week.

Resistance levels: 0.9320, 0.9352, 0.9381, 0.9430 | Support levels: 0.93, 0.9279, 0.925, 0.9219.


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Despite the positive macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand, the NZD/USD pair declines, trading near the level of 0.6829. Yesterday, Stats NZ published a report on e-card spending, according to which the country increased its spending by 124M New Zealand dollars last month, up 1.6% from February. The positive dynamics were noted in the tourism and healthcare industries, where electronic payments grew by 14.5%, while the same indicator, which considers transport trips, added 2.7% due to higher fuel prices.

At tomorrow's meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy, interest rates are expected to rise to 1.25% from 1.00%, which was announced by officials earlier as part of a program to combat high inflation. Analysts are divided on whether the regulator will raise rates by 25 bps or 50 bps, although money market pricing favors the latter.

The US currency was as close as possible to this year's key level of around 100 points in the index before the publication of today's inflation data. The consumer price index is forecast to rise to 8.4% from 7.9% a month earlier, while the core consumer price index, which excludes fuel and food, is expected to rise to 6.6% from 6.4%. Implementation of expectations will negatively affect both the dollar rate and the state of the US economy.


The asset moves within the local Expanding formation pattern, completing the eighth wave. After working out a local sell signal, technical indicators are uncertain: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6871, 0.6987 | Support levels: 0.6742, 0.6337

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GBPUSD, pending statistics on the dynamics of consumer prices

The British pound traded with an uptrend against the US currency during the morning session, trying to regain a foothold above 1.3. Activity on the market remains quite low, as market participants are waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of consumer prices.

Inflation is one of the key indicators today, since the world regulators largely rely on it when choosing the vector of monetary policy. According to current forecasts, the UK Consumer Price Index in March will accelerate from 6.2% to 6.7%, updating record highs.

At the moment, the positions of the pound are supported by relatively optimistic data on the UK labor market, which were published the day before. ILO Unemployment Rate unexpectedly decreased from 3.9% to 3.8% with a neutral forecast. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus for the same period accelerated growth from 3.8% to 4.0%, which coincided with analysts' forecasts. Average Earnings Including Bonus increased from 4.8% to 5.4%. Only BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales were noticeably disappointing, dropping 0.4% in March after rising 2.7% a month earlier.


Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is slightly narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic remains horizontal for some time, holding close to the level of "20". The indicator readings signal the risks of the pound being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.305, 1.31, 1.315, 1.32 | Support levels: 1.3, 1.296, 1.29, 1.285


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The European currency continues to trade in a downtrend around 1.0833 amid poor macroeconomic reports.

Thus, the index of current economic conditions from ZEW in Germany in April fell to –30.8 points from –21.4 points, and the index of economic sentiment in Germany fell to –41.0 points from –39.3 points, while the same indicator in the euro area fell to –43.0 points from –8.7 points a month earlier. ZEW spokesman Achim Wambach said business is pessimistic about the current economic situation and expects it to continue to worsen as the threat of stagflation persists. Also, the region is experiencing record inflation growth: in Germany, the indicator added 2.5% for March after rising by 0.9% for February and has already reached a record 7.3% YoY. The single European currency is also under pressure from possible disruptions in Russian oil and gas supply to the EU countries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU diplomat Josep Borrell announced their intention to extend EU sanctions on oil exports, including them in the sixth package of restrictions against the Russian economy.

As expected earlier, the US currency has overcome the index's psychological mark of 100 points and is now trading around 100.300 points. Positive dynamics were facilitated by data on inflation in the United States, which reached the maximum of 1981, consolidation for March at 8.5% YoY, which exceeded even the bold forecast of analysts at 8.4%. Thus, the value added another 1.2% to the March figure. The largest value growth was recorded for used cars (+35%) and energy products (+32%).


The instrument moves within a wide downward channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, while the AO oscillator histogram remains in the sell zone, forming down bars.

Resistance levels: 1.0912, 1.1155 | Support levels: 1.08, 1.06

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The European currency shows moderate growth against the US dollar during the Asian session, developing a "bullish" signal formed the day before, when the instrument retreated from its March 7 local lows.

The growth of buying activity in the single currency is facilitated by technical factors, as well as some correction of the US dollar after the publication of consumer and industrial inflation, which, as expected, renewed record highs. The Producer Price Index released the day before rose by 1.4% in March after rising by 0.9% a month earlier. Analysts expected an acceleration of only up to 1.1%. In annual terms, the growth rate of producer prices accelerated from 10.3% to 11.2%, which was also higher than the market forecast at 10.6%. Such statistics once again confirm the fact that many politicians and economists were mistaken last year, arguing that the rapid rise in prices is only a temporary phenomenon.

Support for the single currency is also provided by the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held today. Despite the fact that analysts' forecasts do not imply any changes in the vector of the monetary policy of the European regulator, the comments of its representatives will be extremely important. Traders are primarily interested in the timing of the start of the rate increase, since the central banks of developed countries have already managed to resort to tightening monetary policy. Investors will focus on a statement by the ECB President Christine Lagarde, including information on how long after the end of the quantitative easing program a cycle of rate hikes could begin, given the complex combination of inflation far above the target and a slowdown in the national economic recovery due to a sharp jump in energy prices.


On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands demonstrate a tendency to reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range is also trying to consolidate, but within a fairly wide range, fully consistent with the observed dynamics. MACD is reversing upwards and forming a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing the same dynamics being located in the middle of its area.

Resistance levels: 1.09, 1.0957, 1.1, 1.1051 | Support levels: 1.086, 1.0835, 1.08, 1.0767


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