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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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LTC and EOS – Consolidation now expected but further decline still a possibility

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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on a decline from yesterday’s high of $391 made a decrease of 21.8% as it fell to $306.35 at its lowest point today. It spiked further down buy managed to snap back quickly and is currently being traded at $313.69.

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Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that this downfall was the continuation of the descending move from Monday when the price reached $411 at its highest. This was most likely the end of the higher degree 3rd wave from the impulse wave that started at the start of the year. If so, we are now seeing the 4th wave of the same degree developing to the downside.  Measured from its last increase from the 26th of April the price fell down to the 0.5 Fib level and found support there. But this only might be a temporary hold before further downside continuation.

We could have seen the completion of the ABC correction in which case now we are to see the start of the next 5th wave to the upside, but there isn’t still any signs of the buyers entering the market. If we are to see the start of the next impulsive move strong confirmation would be needed.

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US April Inflation – Four Times Higher Than Market Expectations

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Last Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States showed that inflation runs hot in the largest economy in the world. On expectations of an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis, the headline CPI came out four times higher.

Moreover, the Core CPI, which tracks the changes in the price of goods and services over a period, without accounting for food and energy, was three times higher in April than the market expected. As such, inflation is running hot in America, and the whole world is watching.

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A Comparison With the 1970s

Back in the 1970s, inflation in America was printing double-digits on a monthly basis. The Fed fought a long battle to bring inflation down, mainly by raising the interest rates on the world’s reserve currency.

This was a problematic thing to do at the time, because the US just gave up the gold standard. In other words, for the world to still trust the dollar without gold backing, the Fed stepped in and offered a higher interest rate.

Fast forward to our times, and the Fed is unlikely to do the same despite rising inflation, for several reasons. First, the Fed changed its inflation mandate last year.

We should mention here that the Fed has a dual mandate – price stability and job creation. For the first part of its mandate, it used an inflation-targeting framework for decades. Its aim was to create inflation close to the 2% target. This is similar to what other central banks in the world use, like the ECB, which aims at inflation below, but close to 2%.

But the Fed chose to change the inflation-targeting framework last year. It announced that it no longer considers price stability at 2% inflation, but around 2% inflation.

More precisely, the Fed averages inflation for a period, aiming at 2%. The problem is that the period considered is unknown to the market participants.

In April this year, inflation exceeded the Fed’s 2% by a mile, if we consider the annualized data. Yet, the Fed says that the data is transitory. Indeed, if we average inflation for the past six or twelve-month, the result is way below the 2% level. Hence, the Fed is right in adopting a wait-and-see approach.

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Yet, more money is in the pipeline. The chart above shows the US Treasury cash balance at the Federal Reserve. Effectively, this is money held at the Fed, used by the US government to finance various projects or to support its fiscal expansion policy.

Close to a trillion dollars are still available to be deployed into the US economy. Therefore, inflation is likely to run even higher in the months ahead.

The question, at this point, is how much higher will inflation go, without the Fed to intervene? Also, how will the financial markets react?

The initial reaction to the higher inflation data last Wednesday showed weakness in the US equity markets. But that weakness reversed in the following two trading days, as the main stock indices recovered most of the lost ground in the two days left in the trading week.

However, if we use the 1970s as a benchmark, higher inflation triggers an equity bear market. Will we see one in 2021?

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BTC and XRP – Further downside looks more likely

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BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on a decline since the 10th of May when it reached a high of $59,512. From there we have seen a decrease of 29.3% so far as it fell down to $42,180 at its lowest point. It is currently retesting those low levels for support and it appears to have stabilized as it made another attempt to continue its downward trajectory but bounced off of the low levels. Now it is moving slightly to the upside and is being traded at $44,923.

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Looking at the hourly chart above, we can see that this down move from the 10th is the continuation of the decrease that started from the 14th of April after the price reached a new all-time high. As it is most likely the 3rd sub-wave of the corrective ABC this could mean that the descending move has ended on the current interaction with the significant horizontal support zone.

However, if this is the 4th wave of the cycle degree the correction might get deeper and prolonged. In this case, these first three waves could be prolonged by another two more either as the WXYXZ complex correction or in the worst-case scenario a five-wave impulse that would only be the 1st sub-wave of the higher degree ABC.

We are shortly going to see from the expected upward move and the following pullback which scenario could be more likely but for now the primary one is that the downfall could have ended as the ABC move.

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GBP/USD Extends Rally, EUR/GBP Eyes Steady Recovery

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GBP/USD remained strong above 1.4000 and it recently climbed above 1.4200. EUR/GBP is correcting higher and it is aiming a break above 0.8640.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

  • The British Pound formed a strong support base above 1.4050 and climbed above 1.4150.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4155 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP started a fresh increase and it is trading above the 0.8600 zone.
  • There is a major rising channel forming with resistance near 0.8640 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After finding a strong buying interest near 1.4000, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained pace and it broke the 1.4100 resistance zone.

The upward move gained pace above the 1.4150 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It even broke the 1.4200 zone and traded as high as 1.4220 on FXOpen. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 1.4200 level.

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It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.4077 swing low to 1.4220 high. On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.4165 level.

The main support is now forming near the 1.4150 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4155 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.4077 swing low to 1.4220 high.

The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the 1.4155 zone. If there is a downside break below the trend line, the pair could decline towards the 1.4100 support.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.4200 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.4220 level. A successful close above 1.4000 and a follow up move above 1.4220 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4280 resistance.

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LTC and EOS – Have we seen the completion of the downfall?

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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on a decline since the 10th of May when it reached $413 at its highest point. From there we have seen a decrease of 64.88% as it fell to $145 at its lowest point yesterday. We have seen a recovery taking place with the price currently being traded at $211 and is still in an upward trajectory.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has made a lower low today, compared to yesterday’s candle close, and is now still above yesterday’s high. This is still a negative sign even though recovery has been seen. We could bee saw the 4th corrective wave out of the five-wave impulse to the downside from the 16th which is still in development. If this is true then the price would be headed downwards after this increase ends for another establishment of support around the $165 area.

In another move positive scenario the decrease ended with today’s recovery being the 1st sub-wave of the next five-wave impulse to the upside. Even so a retracement would be expected and first a surpassing of yesterday’s high so for the pullback that is expected to follow we can evaluate these possibilities.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Remain At Risk of More Losses

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AUD/USD failed to clear the 0.7800 resistance and corrected lower. NZD/USD is likely to decline further if there is a break below the 0.7180 level.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

  • The Aussie Dollar is struggling to gain pace above 0.7800 zone against the US Dollar.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7775 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD corrected lower after it failed to surpass the 0.7270 resistance zone.
  • There is a key contracting triangle forming with support near 0.7180 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Recently, the Aussie Dollar attempted an upside break above the 0.7800 resistance against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair failed to settle above 0.7800 and started a fresh decline.

It broke the 0.7750 support level and tested the 0.7710 level. A low was formed near 0.7710 on FXOpen and it recently there was an upside correction. The pair climbed above 0.7750 and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

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However, it is struggling to clear the 0.7780 level. A high is formed near 0.7781 and the pair is now correcting lower. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7710 swing low to 0.7781 high.

The pair is now trading near the 0.7755 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7775 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

On the upside, there is a major resistance forming near the 0.7780 and 0.7800 levels. A successful break above the trend line and the 0.7800 zone is must for a steady increase. The next major resistance could be 0.7840, above which the price could rise towards the 0.7880 resistance.

Conversely, the pair could decline below the 0.7750 support zone. The next major support is near the 0.7725 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7725 level, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7680 level.

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GBP/USD Holding Uptrend Support, GBP/JPY Eyes Additional Gains

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GBP/USD found support near 1.3825 and it is now showing positive signs. GBP/JPY is stable above 149.40 and it is now facing hurdles near 150.00.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

  • The British Pound extended its increase above the 1.4200 region against the US Dollar.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4135 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • GBP/JPY is correcting gains from the 155.00 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 154.40 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few sessions, the British Pound saw a steady increase above the 1.4000 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.4100 level and extended its upward move.

There was even a break above the 1.4200 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.4233 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting gains. It broke the 1.4200 and 1.4180 support levels.

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There was also a spike below the 1.4150 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.4136 and the pair is now consolidating. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4135 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.4160 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4233 high to 1.4136 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.4185 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4233 high to 1.4136 low is also near the 1.4185 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a strong rally above the 1.4200 level.

Conversely, the pair could break the trend line support and continue lower below 1.4135. The next major support is near the 1.4100 level. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.4000 level.

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Cryptocurrencies Tumble in April – What Comes Next?

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Over the weekend, the cryptocurrency market took another tumble. Bitcoin fell more than 10% and tested the $32k level before bouncing. Also, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have lost more, with most of the coins down over 50% in April.

It all started with Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, tweeting at the start of the trading month that the company will not accept Bitcoin as payment for the purchasing of its electric vehicles. As such, Bitcoin collapsed, and other digital assets followed the same path.

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Is It the First Time When Bitcoin Drops That Much?

A quick check at the Bitcoin’s price history reveals that such a drop is actually part of the way the asset moves. Throughout history, Bitcoin lost over 80% of its value three times – in 2013, 2016, and 2018.

Some other times, it frequently lost more than 40% of its value. Yet, Bitcoin did found its way out of it, although the volatility is not for the everyone.

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If we look at what happened in May so far, Bitcoin’s price corrected from over $60k close to $30k. That is a drop of 50% in less than a month.

This is a problem not only for the crypto assets but for traditional financial assets too. One must remember how Bitcoin’s adoption has increased among institutional investors lately, and such a drop may end up posing a systemic risk to markets.

It did not, so far, as the equity markets remain stable. However, the declines in some crypto assets are so steep that institutional investors that adopted crypto have some explaining to do to their clients.

All in all, the move lower in Bitcoin is not unusual if we check historical prices. The only thing that is different at this point is that the move lower does not affect only retail traders anymore but also institutional investors. If the bearish market continues, the risk of seeing some spillovers in the traditional markets increases exponentially.

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BTC and XRP – Starting impulse to the upside likely developing

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BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has recovered significantly from Sunday’s low of around $32,000 as it made an increase of 27% measured to its highest point today at $39.723. Since then we have seen a minor pullback with the price currently being traded at $37,896 and moving to the downside again.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a five-wave increase from Sunday and came slightly above the significant horizontal level that served as support now turned resistance. This is why the price struggled to keep up its upward trajectory and is now headed to the downside again.

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From Sunday we have most likely seen the start of the next move to the upside as the corrective ABC of the highest degree ended. If this is true, then we are now seeing the first sub-wave of the next five-wave impulse coming to completion as is why the currently seen downside move would be expected to continue pushing the price further down. That would be expected to develop as the 2nd sub-wave of the higher degree count and it should now form a higher low compared to Sunday’s one, potentially around $36,000 where the next horizontal support is in line. But from there further upside movement would be expected and a breakout above the $42,000 horizontal zone.

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EUR/USD Eyes Additional Gains, USD/JPY Remains At Risk

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EUR/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2200 resistance zone. USD/JPY is showing bearish signs below the 108.85 and 109.00 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

  • The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.2200 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2240 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/JPY declined below the 109.20 and 109.00 support levels.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 109.00 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.2050 level, the Euro started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2150 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

The pair even broke the 1.2200 level and settled nicely above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high is formed near 1.2263 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. It corrected lower below the 1.2250 support zone.

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There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2160 swing low to 1.2263 high. However, the pair is holding the 1.2200 support zone.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2240 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. If there is a downside break below the trend line, the pair could test the 1.2210 zone. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2160 swing low to 1.2263 high.

An intermediate support is near the 1.2225 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is likely to accelerate higher if it clears 1.2265. The next major resistance is near the 1.2300 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.2350 level. An intermediate resistance might be near the 1.2320 level.

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LTC and EOS – At key turning point

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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since the 23rd when it fell down to $128.32 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 58% measured to its highest point yesterday at around $203. Since then a minor pullback was made but the price is once again in an upward trajectory and is currently being traded at $196.3.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that from the 23rd of May we have seen an impulsive five-wave move after which the price started consolidating. It did so in a three-wave manner which is most likely the 2nd sub-wave of the next higher degree impulse to the upside. We have seen the completion of a 3-3-5 move with a higher low made today compared to the one on the 25th as the first pullback which validated that the support is getting higher and that buyers are stepping in.

If this was a running flat correction that ended now today we have seen the start of the next wave to the upside which is set to exceed the high on the 25th and propel the price much stronger potentially to the territory of the 0.5 Fib level at around $264.65. But if this is the five-wave impulse of the higher degree it should continue moving to the upside beyond that point after another pullback on the 4th wave.

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Gold Price and Oil Price Turn Attractive On Dips

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Gold price traded above the $1,900 resistance zone before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it is trading nicely above the $65.00 pivot level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

  • Gold price gained pace above the $1,850 and $1,880 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,898 on the hourly chart of gold.
  • Crude oil price climbed higher and it cleared the $67.00 resistance zone.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $66.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price started a steady increase above the $1,850 level against the US Dollar. It broke a few key hurdles near $1,880 to move further into a positive zone.

The price even settled above the $1,880 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a clear break above the $1,900 level and a high was formed near $1,912 on FXOpen. The price is now correcting gains and trading below $1,900.

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There was a break below $1,890, but downsides were limited. The price traded as low as $1,888 and the price is now consolidating. It seems like there is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,898 on the hourly chart of gold.

The triangle resistance is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,912 high to $1,888 low. The main resistance is now forming near the $1,900 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,912 high to $1,888 low is also near the $1,900 zone. A clear break above the $1,900 level may possibly open the doors for a move towards the $1,920 level or even $1,935.

On the downside, the price is likely to find bids near $1,888. If there is a downside break below $1,888, there are chances of a move towards the $1,870 level in the near term.

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GBP/USD Remains In Uptrend, USD/CAD Could Extend Losses

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GBP/USD is holding gains above the 1.4100 and 1.4120 support levels. USD/CAD is struggling and it could decline further if it breaks the 1.2060 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

  • The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.4100 resistance level.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.4190 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • USD/CAD declined steadily after it failed to clear the 1.2140 resistance zone.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2070 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound remained well bid above the 1.4080 and 1.4100 support levels against the US Dollar. The last swing low was formed near 1.4100 before the GBP/USD started a fresh increase.

The recent low was formed near 1.4136 on FXOpen and the pair is now rising steadily. It broke the 1.4150 resistance level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4219 high to 1.4136 low.

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There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.4190 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.4180 level.

It is testing the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4219 high to 1.4136 low. A clear break above the 1.4200 resistance level could open the doors for a larger increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise towards the 1.4220 resistance.

The next major resistance is near 1.4235, above which GBP/USD might test the 1.4300 zone. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.4180 level.

The first major support is near the 1.4165 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4120 support zone.

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Gold Breaks Above $1,900 On Inflation Fears

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Gold has long played an important role in financial markets. It is the only form of money that survived for millenniums, and investment managers value it as a hedge against inflation.

Inflation is on everyone´s lips nowadays. In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States has grown at the fastest pace since 1981. Both the core and the headline CPI are poised to rise further in the summer, as the US government and the Fed keep the accommodative measures.

Last week, the Personal Core Expenditure (PCE) in the United States rose by 0.7% on expectations of 0.6% and following 0.4% in the previous month. The upbeat data is important because the PCE measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, without counting for energy and food prices, considered too volatile. Also, the PCE is the Fed´s favored way of measuring inflation, and the rise fuels expectations of higher inflation in the months ahead.

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Two Different Recessions

A quick comparison of the two last recessions reveals that the CPI had a different path. For example, in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis, inflation fell below zero. In other words, deflation gripped the world´s developed economies, or at least it threatened to do so.

However, it is not the case during the current recession. Instead of falling, inflation is poised to rise further. The Fed in the United States has anticipated higher inflation already since August last year. During the Jackson Hole symposium in 2020, the Fed changed its mandate from targeting 2% to averaging 2% over a certain period.

Higher inflation typically triggers higher gold prices. Only that the price of gold tumbled since last summer, falling from a record high above $2,000 to below $1,700. At the same time, the US dollar continued to weaken, losing ground against its G10 peers.

But the price of gold recovered from its recent lows and now threatens to break to a new all-time high. If the trend in inflation seen in April is set to continue, the bullish trend in the price of gold is likely to continue as well.

Now that the cryptocurrency market lost more than half of its value, as seen by the price of Bitcoin falling by 50% in a couple of weeks, investors seem to favor gold again as a hedge against inflation. If that is the case, the recent rise in the price of gold is just the start of an attempt at a new all-time high. The higher the CPI rises, the bigger the share investors will allocate to gold.

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EUR/USD Eyes More Upsides, USD/CHF Could Extend Losses

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EUR/USD is trading in a positive zone above the 1.2200 support. USD/CHF is declining and it could extend losses below the 0.8950 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

  • The Euro started a fresh increase and it broke the 1.2200 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key expanding triangle forming with resistance near 1.2255 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/CHF started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 0.9020 resistance zone.
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.8980 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a strong support base above the 1.2120 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh increase and it traded above the main 1.2200 resistance zone.

The pair even surged above the 1.2220 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed near 1.2254 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains. It traded below the 1.2220 support level.

eurusd-chart.png

There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2132 swing low to 1.2254 high. It is now trading nicely above the 1.2200 support zone and the 50 hourly SMA.

There is also a key expanding triangle forming with resistance near 1.2255 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.2240 and 1.2250 levels. A clear upside break above 1.2250 could set the pace for a larger increase.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near the 1.2200 zone. The next key support is near the 1.2190 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2132 swing low to 1.2254 high.

A downside break below the 1.2190 support could increase selling pressure in the near term. The next major support could be near the 1.2150 level.

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LTC and EOS – Indecision

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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has bee on the rise since the 30th of May again after it came down to $157.3 from $207. It reached today $197 at its highest point and is now making a minor pullback.

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We have seen the start of the recovery from the 23rd when it fell all the way down to $127 and even lower on the wick to the downside. This is why the recovery seen from there could be the start of the next impulsive move to the upside that is now going to develop in a five-wave manner. On the other hand, this could be another corrective stage with the price making some kind of an ABC correction after further downtrend continuation.

In the first case, we could see a breakout from the currently formed rising flat triangle on the upside which would validate the possibility of the upward momentum. But if the ascending trendline breaks out to the downside it could be an early indication that the price is headed further down below its lowest levels this year.

EOS/USD

The price of EOS has been moving sideways from the 30th of May when it fell to $5.5 area from its high of $7.52. Since then it has recovered to $6.67 at its highest point today but is now sitting again lower as it encountered resistance.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has formed a sideways range from the 30th with slight ascending levels. This could be the start of the next impulsive move as a leading diagonal or it could be the 2nd sub-wave of the next move to the downside which is still unclear. This is why it would be safe to say that a breakout beyond its outline levels could provide an early indication of where the price is headed further.

If the price continues increasing and manages to go above the resistance levels this could meant that the price is headed further up, but if its support gets broken we could see further downtrend continuation.

FXOpen Blog

This forecast represents FXOpen Markets Limited opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Markets Limited products and services or as financial advice. Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to trade in all jurisdictions.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Turn Red, Upsides Capped

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AUD/USD started a major decline after it failed to clear the 0.7765 resistance. NZD/USD also declined and it broke a major support near the 0.7200 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.7740 and 0.7700 support levels against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.7730 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD also declined heavily below the 0.7200 and 0.7180 support levels.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7200 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Recently, the Aussie Dollar made a few attempts to clear the 0.7765 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair failed to gain momentum and it started a major decline below 0.7750.

It broke the 0.7700 support level and settled well below the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 0.7675 support level and extended its decline. It traded as low as 0.7644 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating losses.

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An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7670 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7755 high to 0.7644 low.

The first major resistance is near the 0.7675 level (the recent breakdown zone). The next major resistance is near the 0.7700 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7755 high to 0.7644 low.

Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 0.7715 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Conversely, the pair could further decline below the 0.7650 support zone.

The next major support is near the 0.7640 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7640 level, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7580 level.

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Could Correct Lower

gbp-usd.jpg

GBP/USD failed to clear the key 1.4200 resistance zone and corrected lower. EUR/GBP is rising and it might continue to rise towards the 0.8650 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

  • The British Pound failed to gain pace above the main 1.4200 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.4175 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP started a fresh increase after it found a strong support near the 0.8565 zone.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8590 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 1.4080 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair climbed above the 1.4150 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

However, the pair failed to gain pace above the 1.4200 resistance. It traded as high as 1.4199 on FXOpen and it is now correcting gains. There was a break below the 1.4165 support level. The bears pushed the pair below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.4083 swing low to 1.4199 high.

The pair is now testing the 1.4140 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.4083 swing low to 1.4199 high.

gbpusd-chart.png

A downside break below 1.4140 could set the pace for a fresh decline towards the 1.4100 support. The main support is still near 1.4080, below which the pair could dive towards 1.4000.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.4170 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.4175 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major resistance is near the 1.4200 level.

A successful close above 1.4170 and a follow up move above 1.4200 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4250 resistance.

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Weak US Dollar Ahead of Critical Inflation Data

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The US dollar reacted strongly to the June NFP report released last Friday and declined across the board. The US economy added fewer than expected jobs in May, but the unemployment rate declined to 5.8%.

The reaction in the dollar may have come as a result of traders and other market participants preparing for the inflation data later this week. On Thursday, right when the European Central Bank is presenting its June decision, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States is released.

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Rising Inflation – Bullish or Bearish for the US Dollar

One month ago, the US dollar declined on the CPI release. The April headline and core inflation data showed rising prices, and the dollar took a dive.

However, dollar bears should keep in mind two things. First, it is not the first time in history when higher inflation may lead to a stronger, not a weaker, dollar. A close look at what happened in the 1970s, a period known as one with higher inflation, will show that the dollar may get stronger on rising prices.

Second, the core inflation difference between Europe and the United States suggests we may see a stronger dollar in the second half of the year. The core inflation difference leads five months, and so far it correlated perfectly with the EUR/USD exchange rate. More precisely, it points to a much lower EUR/USD than the current levels, something that dollar bears may want to consider.

This week, the ECB monetary policy decision will trigger volatility on the euro pairs, but the market participants will also look at the tapering message. Next week it is the Fed’s turn to talk about tapering, and the difference between the two statements will be the driver for the EUR/USD exchange rate.

FXOpen Blog

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