Guest forexpros Posted June 1, 2010 Report Share Posted June 1, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 1, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Thursday, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: PPI European traders anticipate the publication of the Producer Price Index on June 2nd. The PPI is an inflationary indicator that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. The PPI looks at three areas of production: industry-based, commodity-based, and stage-of-processing-based companies. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.70%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro traded below the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.2333 for the whole 24 hours since the issuance of yesterday’s report. It did not break it, only to trade in a narrow range, which has postponed the drop but did not delete its possibility. We still believe that the Euro is ready to dive, and we still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2472! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. And since that the price has touched the channel top, and came close to Fibonacci then it started to fall, then the negative outlook is still here, strongly! As for the short term the support is at 1.2244, and breaking it will drag the Euro to the important 1.2142 then to a new cycle low at 1.2068. The resistance is at 1.2312, and breaking it indicates a continuation of the rising correction which will target 1.2411 first, then its ideal target at 1.2472. It goes without saying that this is the single most important resistance for the time being, and the separating point between a continuation of the current downtrend, and a reversal to an uptrend! We still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time, nothing will change that except for breaking 1.2472. Support: • 1.2244: Asian session low. • 1.2142: This cycle’s and 4-year low. • 1.2068: Apr 13th 2006 low, the last important support before the 1.2000 level. Resistance: • 1.2312: the top of the rising channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts. • 1.2411: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.2670. • 1.2472: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen retreated a little bit, and consolidated around 91, but we still believe that we could see the price targeting the most important resistance for now: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 91.84. But in order for it to hold to these chances, the price should hold above the 90.87 support, and not to start drifting lower and away from 91! The resistance 91.84 is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook. If price stops at or around 91.84, the odds of going back down will be enormous, and a top around here could provide us with a wonderful chance to sell for medium term. But if broken, we will see a strong jump to 92.95 and may be 93.65. Support is at 90.87, and if broken, the price will retreat to 90.26 then to the very important 89.67. We still believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now, while the medium term support is at 89.67. Support: • 90.87: important intraday level. • 90.26: short term 50% Fibonacci level (for the rising move from 88.96). • 89.67: the slowly rising trend line on hourly chart. Resistance: • 91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, the most important resistance at all for the time being. • 92.95: May 18th high. • 93.65: Apr 6th low. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forex Pros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 2, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Thursday, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change tomorrow June 3. The report is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data, is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 56.00K, a significant change from the past reading of 32.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro dropped strongly, as it broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.2283, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2142, and a new cycle low(just as expected) at 1.2110, which is a level not seen since 2006! We expressed confidence in this scenario in yesterday’s report, when we said “we still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time”. And even after this “dive”, we still believe that the Euro is ready to dive even more, and we still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2456! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. And since that the price has touched the channel top, and came close to Fibonacci then it started to fall, then the negative outlook is still here, strongly! As for the short term the support is at 1.2200, and breaking it will drag the Euro to test this fresh cycle low 1.2110 again, and then to test the important psychological level 1.2000. The resistance is at 1.2279, which combines the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart (after adjusting it very slightly) and Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from yesterday’s high. Breaking it indicates a continuation of the rising correction which will target 1.2390 first, then its ideal target: Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2456. It goes without saying that this is the single most important resistance for the time being, and the separating point between a continuation of the current downtrend, and a reversal to an uptrend! We still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2110 is only a matter of time, nothing will change that except for a break of 1.2456. Support: • 1.2200: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, which was tested more than once during the Asian session. • 1.2110: yesterday’s low, and the new cycle’s and 4-year low. • 1.2000: important psychological level. Resistance: • 1.2279: the top of the rising channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts after adjusting it very slightly, and the short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance. • 1.2390: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.2670. • 1.2456: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen came closer than ever to the all important resistance 91.84, stopping only 8 pips below it, which could be considered as a test of some sort! But we still believe that there is a chance to come even closer to this important level on the short term, and that we could actually “touch” it before we drop! But in order for it to hold to these chances, the price should hold above the 91.24 support, which is provided by the rising trend line on intraday charts. And although we notice that this is an important level, the resistance 91.84 is still the most important level for this pair right now! It is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook. If price stops at or around 91.84, the odds of going back down will be enormous, and a top around here could provide us with a wonderful chance to sell for medium term. But if broken, we will see a strong jump to 92.95 and may be 93.65. As we said, support is at 91.24, and if broken, the price will retreat to 90.36 then to the very important 89.72. We still believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now, while the medium term support is at 89.72. Support: • 91.24: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 90.36: short term 50% Fibonacci level (for the rising move from 88.96). • 89.72: the slowly rising trend line on hourly chart. Resistance: • 91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, the most important resistance at all for the time being. • 92.95: May 18th high. • 93.65: Apr 6th low. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 3, 2010 Report Share Posted June 3, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 3, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Today, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: US Nonfarm Payrolls Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls. The data measures the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best overview of the economy. The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 500K, a significant change from the past reading of 290K. --- Euro Dollar In what may be considered some kind of a surprise, the Euro broke the falling channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts at 1.2270 during the Asian session! This break could cause a lot of excitement before the weekend. It is only logical to expect more rise after this break. But we will not put our bets on it, before breaking the last top inside the broken channel, which was 1.2351. This is for the short term, but for the medium term, the Euro will stay weak until it breaks 1.2456 in a real and decisive way. So, today’s resistance is at 1.2351, and only after a break here we would expect a continuation of the rising move. If this break happens, the first target will be a test of the single most important resistance for the time being 1.2456. And if this one is also broken, then 1.2560 will be a first & modest target, on the way to higher targets later. On the other hand, the support is at 1.2280, and breaking it would mean that the Euro’s channel break is losing momentum and effect, and that the price will resume its downtrend. The targets for such a break would be 1.2174, and then the last important support before the 1.20 level, which is at 1.2068. Support: • 1.2280: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts/ • 1.2174: yesterday’s low. • 1.2068: Apr 13th 2006 low, the last important support before 1.2000. Resistance: • 1.2351: the last top on the series of tops defining the broken channel, which was broken during the Asian session. • 1.2456: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670. • 1.2560: May 24th high. --- USD/JPY Finally, the Dollar/Yen reached the long awaited 91.84! But the surprise was that it broke it, easily, and managed to reach 92.34 (today’s high until the moment of preparing this report). This break will improve the weak technical outlook on the short term. But reaching the top of rising trend channel on the hourly & 4-hours charts indicates that the Dollar will face difficulties in its struggle to achieve more gains (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, the dollar should break the top of this channel as soon as possible to maintain the positive technical outlook which emerged after breaking 91.84. If we break the resistance at 92.31, we will see the price jump to 9295 and may be 93.65 before the weekend. On the other hand, the support is at 92.02, and if broken, the price will correct its last surge, in a correction which would ideally target the area between 91.05 & 90.25. The latter has become he most important support for the short term, for now. Support: • 92.02: the bottom of the rising trend channel from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 91.05: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the rising move from 88.96. • 89.72: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the rising move from 88.96. Resistance: • 92.31: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart. • 92.95: May 18th high. • 93.65: Apr 6th low. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 7, 2010 Report Share Posted June 7, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 7, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Profit in Any Market Environment with Forex Options Expert: Kris Matthews When: Tuesday, June 8, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST In this webinar, Kris Matthews of Paradigm Macro Trading and coauthor of the book, "Trading the Forex Market with Options," will teach traders how to trade Forex options profitably and limit risk. If you have issues with making sense of the "randomness" of price action, often get stopped out when the market turns, and are looking for a way to spend less time trading but still would like to earn profits in any type of market, this webinar is for you. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Nationwide Consumer Confidence - GBP European traders look forward to the publication of the UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence. It measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. The figure is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 78.00. --- Euro Dollar As expected, the Euro broke the support 1.2152, and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.2068 & 1.2000. The Euro fell below 1.20 for the first time since March 2006, but this drop was not a surprise to anyone, according to the negative technical outlook which we have adopted in the past days & weeks. Breaking below 1.20 opens the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. Short term support is at 1.1911, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1825, and then 1.1754. The resistance is at 1.1963, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to the important 1.2085 & 1.2161. Support: • 1.1911: the rising trend line from the Asian session low on intraday charts. • 1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low. • 1.1754: Dec 6th 2005 low/ Resistance: • 1.1963: important intraday level. • 1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214. • 1.2161: the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen stopped just before 92.95 (Friday’s high was 92.87), and started to drop, drifting away from this new challenge which it’s obviously not ready for yet! The price then dropped, breaking the support specified in the report 92.22, and reaching the first suggested target 91.36 successfully. The current drop stopped just before the Fibonacci 50%for the short term at 90.90 (the low until the moment of preparing this report is 90.90). This indicates that this level is important for stetting the direction of the short term. If the price holds above this level we believe it can challenge Friday’s top, and the important resistance 92.95, if not today then later in the week. Short term resistance is at 91.59 and if broken the technical outlook will improve, and the price will target 92.15 first, then the important 92.95. The support is at 90.90 which proved important this morning. If broken, we will seethe price dropping to 90.44 & then 89.80. Support: • 90.90: Fibonacci 50% level for the rising move from 88.96. • 90.44: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the rising move from 88.96. • 89.80: hourly support. Resistance: • 91.59: important intraday level. • 92.15: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 92.95: May 18th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 8, 2010 Report Share Posted June 8, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 8, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Profit in Any Market Environment with Forex Options Expert: Kris Matthews When: Today, June 8, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST In this webinar, Kris Matthews of Paradigm Macro Trading and coauthor of the book, "Trading the Forex Market with Options," will teach traders how to trade Forex options profitably and limit risk. If you have issues with making sense of the "randomness" of price action, often get stopped out when the market turns, and are looking for a way to spend less time trading but still would like to earn profits in any type of market, this webinar is for you. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Traders of the US look forward to the Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech tomorrow June 9. The Fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. --- Euro Dollar With astonishing accuracy, the Euro’s drop stopped at the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.1911, down to the pip! And then tried to reach 1.20, but it settled for 1.1989. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. For the short term, the wave count illustrated on the chart, shows a 4-wave drop, in which yesterday’s “break” is wave 4, and we still have room for another leg down below 1.1875, in what would be wave 5. Short term support is at 1.1932, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1825, and then 1.1754. The resistance is at 1.1984, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to the important 1.2085 & 1.2155. Support: • 1.1932: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low. • 1.1754: Dec 6th 2005 low/ Resistance: • 1.1984: important intraday level. • 1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214. • 1.2155: the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen held above the support specified in yesterday’s report 90.90 (yesterday’s low was 90.96), and it rose to break the resistance 91.59, and stopped before the suggested target 92.15 with only 8 pips! This surely indicates the importance of this level, which we will adjust today with a single pip to 92.14. This resistance will be in the center of our attention. On the other hand, the support is at 91.54, provided by the rising trend line from 90.96 on the hourly chart. If the price manages to hold above this support, we believe in its ability to test Friday’s top and the important 92.95, if not today, then later in the week. But definitely, we need a break of 92.14 first, and if e get what we need, then the price will be on the way to test the important 92.95 first, then 93.70. But if the price retreats, and broke the rising trend line (currently running at 91.54), we will drop to the important Fibonacci levels: the important 90.90, and the more important 90.44. Support: • 91.54: the rising trend line on the hourly charts. • 90.90: Fibonacci 50% level for the rising move from 88.96. • 90.44: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the rising move from 88.96. Resistance: • 92.14: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 92.95: May 18th high. • 93.70: Apr 14th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 9, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Hot Harmonic Patterns Expert: Chris Hall When: Today, June 9, 2010, 8:30 a.m. EST With the time you spend with Chris who mentors at FXGroundworks.com (the leader in harmonic pattern recognition, alerting and mentoring) he will teach you the foundations you need behind trading harmonics as well as trading in general. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: ECB Press Conference European traders await the ECB Press Conference on June 10. European Central Bank holds this monthly press conference about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced. It is about an hour long and has two parts: First, a prepared statement is read; then the conference is opened to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that trigger market volatility. The press conference, which is broadcasted on the ECB website, is the ECB's primary method for communicating with investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it often provides clues regarding future monetary policy. If the statement is more hawkish than expected, that is usually good for the euro. --- Euro Dollar The Euro fluctuated and penetrated both the support & the resistance specified in yesterday’s report without being able to reach any of the suggested targets in both cases. This behavior enhances our hypothesis that we are in a wave 4 of a 5-wave decline, since its known in (The Wave Principle) that wave 4 price action appears to be random while this wave is developing, just as it is the case for wave B as well. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. For the short term, the wave count illustrated on the chart, shows a 4-wave drop, in which yesterday’s “break” is wave 4, and we still have room for another leg down below 1.1875, in what would be wave 5. Short term support is at 1.1923, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1825, and then 1.1754. The resistance is at 1.1975, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to the important 1.2085 & 1.2148. Support: • 1.1923: the rising trend line from Monday’s low on hourly & intraday charts. • 1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low. • 1.1754: Dec 6th 2005 low. Resistance: • 1.1975: important intraday level. • 1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214. • 1.2155: the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen traded below 92.14 for the whole past 24- hours, and did not touch this important resistance. It also dropped to break the support specified in yesterday’s report 91.54, only to settle for 91.23. This very limited action, has postponed the excitement, hopefully for no longer than today, especially after a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention. This level is the support at 90.52. The reasons which makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from May 20th, with June 1st low, giving this level a double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break the intraday support 91.11. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully very exciting) level. Breaking here would have serious consequences on this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to lower levels. Resistance is at 91.67, and if broken, the important support test scenario will be void, and we will target 92.67 & 93.70. Support: • 91.11: important intraday level. • 90.52: June 1stlow & the important rising trend line on hourly charts. • 89.81: May 26th low. Resistance: • 91.67: the falling trend line from Monday’s top on the hourly chart. • 92.67: May 16th high. • 93.70: Apr 14th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 10, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail Sales Traders of the US await the Core Retail Sales publication. It is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.10%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke yesterday’s resistance 1.1975, and rose as expected for almost 100 pips, but without reaching the suggested target 1.2085, as it settled for 1.2072. Unlike what some might think, this behavior was not a surprise, but a normal part of wave 4 which we have talked about. This behavior enhances our hypothesis that we are in a wave 4 of a 5-wave decline, since its known in (The Wave Principle) that wave 4 price action appears to be random while this wave is developing, just as it is the case for wave B as well. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. For the short term, the wave count illustrated on the chart, shows a 4-wave drop, in which Tuesday’s “break” is wave 4, and we still have room for another leg down below 1.1875, in what would be wave 5. Short term support is at 1.2021, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1875, and then 1.1825. The resistance is at the important 1.12085, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to 1.2176 & 1.2264. Support: • 1.2021: important intraday level. • 1.1875: Monday’s low, this cycle’s low, and the 4-year low. • 1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low. Resistance: • 1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214. • 1.2176: May 25th low. • 1.2264: May 28th low. --- USD/JPY Dollar/Yen reserved the “boredom” state in which it spent the previous two days. This very limited action, has postponed the excitement, hopefully for no longer than today, especially after a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention since yesterday. This level is the support at 90.62. The reasons which makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from May 20th, with May 26th high (approx.), giving this level a double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break Monday’s low 90.96. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully very exciting) level 90.62. Breaking here would have serious consequences on this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to lower levels. Resistance is at 91.48, and if broken, the important support test scenario will be void, and we will target 92.56 & 93.62. Support: • 90.96: Monday’s low. • 90.62: May 26th high (approx.) & the important rising trend line on hourly charts. • 89.81: May 26th low. Resistance: • 91.48: the falling trend line from Monday’s top on the hourly chart. • 92.56: Apr 13th low. • 93.62: May 13th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forex Pros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 14, 2010 Report Share Posted June 14, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 14, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: German ZEW Economic Sentiment European traders await the publication of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. It determines the sentiment of German institutional investors. Above 0 indicates optimism while below 0 indicates pessimism. It's a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 48.70. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance 1.2127 which we said that it “will be very positive for the short term”, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2176, confirming the “break of the downtrend” which we talked about on Friday. There is no doubt that the Euro has broken the trend, but that is only for the short term. We should not confuse this actual trend break and the change in direction for the short term, which the persisting downtrend for the medium term which is still going strong. This break has passed the first challenge on Friday by breaking 1.2127, but it is invited to another equally important challenge at 1.2214 today. If the Euro is to continue with its rise, it should break this resistance and should not stop at or near it. In case we do break this resistance the targets will be 1.2295 first, and then 1.2352. On the other hand, the support is at 1.2166, and if we break it, then this “hot” rise will go cold, and we will fall targeting the important 1.2106, then 1.2044. Support: • 1.2166: important intraday support. • 1.2106: Fibonacci 61.8 for the short term. • 1.2044: Friday’s low, and the retest level of the broken trend channel. Resistance: • 1.2214: June 4th high. • 1.2295: May 20h low. • 1.2352: May 1st high. --- USD/JPY Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in Friday’s report 91.65, but it barely made it to 92 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is exactly 92.00), which makes us wonder if we will see results to this break. We are full of hope to see some excitement today, as we are betting on the Dollar to capitalize on the break of the falling trend line from last week’s high. And if it breaks the resistance 91.91, that would be probable, and we would be looking forward to reach the 92.56 & 93.62 targets. Having said that, the possibility of a drop remains, but it now needs a break of the support 91.60. If we do, we will target a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention for the past 3 days. This level is the support at 90.65. The reasons which makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from May 20th, with June 7th low, giving this level a double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break the 91.60, which is the rising trend line from Thursday’s low. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully very exciting) level 90.94. Breaking here would have serious consequences on this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to lower levels. Support: • 91.60: the rising trend line from Thursday’s low on the hourly chart. • 90.94: June 7th low & the important rising trend line on hourly charts. • 89.81: May 26th low. Resistance: • 91.91: June 8th high. • 92.56: Apr 13th low. • 93.62: May 13th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 16, 2010 Report Share Posted June 16, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 16, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims Traders await the US Initial Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 450.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.2254, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2295 and came very close to the second suggested target 1.2352, stopping only 4 pips before it (yesterday’s high was 1.2348). The Euro proved that it is still capable of going higher, which created a small surprise for us. Yesterday’s top came very close to this month’s top, which was reached on the first day of it: 1.2352. This proves how important this resistance is, that is why it will be our resistance of the day. After hitting yesterday’s top, the price retreated to 1.2307. This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means that the “hot” rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support 1.2307, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains. And it will target the ideal correction targets for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2167 & 1.2056. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.2352, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more from yesterday’s top will be expected. But if we break it we will target the important 1.2452, and later 1.2519. Support: • 1.2307: important intraday support. • 1.2167: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterday’s high. • 1.2056: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterday’s high. Resistance: • 1.2352: June 1st high. • 1.2452: the descending trend line from Apr 14th high. • 1.2519: May 6th high. --- USD/JPY Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 91.47, but it did not make it to the suggested target 91.91 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 91.73). The most important technical event for the past 24 hours was the fact that the ascending trend line from May 20th low, is now at yesterday’s low 91.06. This makes this support the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt! It seems as if we are about to test it, and we suggested keeping an eye at this pair as it gets closer to this level, because this very test is what will determine and set the short term direction. If we break 91.06 the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first, and then to 88.96, both levels are significant and critical support levels. The resistance is provided by short term Fibonacci 61.8% level, at 91.70. If we break this resistance, we will be capable of penetrating 92.07 which stopped us a couple of times, and we will target 92.56 & 93.38. Support: • 91.06: the rising trend line from May 20th low. The single most important support for the short term. • 89.81: May 26th low. • 88.96: May 20th low. Resistance: • 91.70: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 92.56: Apr 13th low. • 93.38: Jan 7th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 17, 2010 Report Share Posted June 17, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 17, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: BoC Gov Carney Speaks Canadian traders await the speech by governor Carney, to take place tomorrow, June 18th. Mark Carney, Bank of Canada governor, 2008-2015. As head of Canada's central bank, which controls key short term interest rates, Carney has more influence over the Canadian dollar's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. --- Euro Dollar With stunning accuracy, The Euro’s rising move stopped at the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.2352 (yesterday’s high was 1.2351), and then, just as expected, the drop began. The price then broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.2307, only to settle for 1.2253! The rising move halted very close to this month’s top, which was reached on the first day of it: 1.2352. This proves how important this resistance is, that is why it will be our resistance of the day, especially after it managed to send the price down for almost 100 pips. This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means that the “hot” rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support 1.2255, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains. And it will target the ideal correction targets for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2169 & 1.2057. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.2352, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more from yesterday’s top will be expected. But if we break it, we will target the important 1.2452, and later 1.2519. Support: • 1.2255: Asian session low. • 1.2169: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterday’s high. • 1.2057: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterday’s high. Resistance: • 1.2352: June 1st high. • 1.2452: the descending trend line from Apr 14th high. • 1.2519: May 6th high. --- USD/JPY With supernatural accuracy, the Dollar/Yen stopped at the support specified in yesterday’s report 91.06 (yesterday’s low was 91.07), and traded above it for the whole time after. Stopping here is in fact a test at the ascending trend line from May 20th low, a very accurate test actually (please refer to the attached chart). This makes this support the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt! This line is currently running at 91.17, and it will be our support of the day. And after such an accurate test, we suggest keeping an eye on this pair, because this very test is what will determine and set the short term direction. If we break 91.17 the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first, and then to 88.96, both levels are significant and critical support levels. The resistance is provided by the falling trend line from this week’s high, which is at 91.65. If we break this resistance, we will be capable of penetrating 92.07 which stopped us a couple of times, and we will target 92.56 & 93.38. It seems like we are going to enjoy an exciting end to this week with the USDJPY. Support: • 91.17: the rising trend line from May 20th low. The single most important support for the short term. • 89.81: May 26th low. • 88.96: May 20th low. Resistance: • 91.65: the falling trend line from Monday’s top. • 92.56: Apr 13th low. • 93.38: Jan 7th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 21, 2010 Report Share Posted June 21, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 21, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home Sales Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Existing Home Sales. It measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 6.10M. --- Euro Dollar Although it stopped accurately at it on Friday, the Euro penetrated the descending trend line from Apr 14th top on the hourly chart. We said about this line on Friday: “Testing this line will be the single most important even for today, and its results will be very important for the medium term. The Euro now is between breaking this line and soaring for hundreds on points in the coming days, or dropping from this test to go back below 1.20 once again.” And after The Euro breaking this level we can say that we will see it continue to fly, and will get closer to 1.30 with in 1-2 weeks. But for today, if the Euro breaks the resistance 1.2457, we will target the important levels above 1.25, most important of which for today are 1.2519 & 1.2604, before targeting higher levels later. But, if we drop we will target a test of the support 1.2389, and if broken a falling correction will take us back down to earth, as we target the Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2240 & 1.2170. Support: • 1.2389: an important rising trend line on the hourly chart. • 1.2240: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to Asian session high. • 1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to Asian session high. Resistance: • 1.2457: important intraday level. • 1.2519: May 6th high. • 1.2604: May 12th low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in Friday’s report 90.67, and dropped to 90.32, without being able to reach the first suggested target 89.81. But even though this break (and the break of the rising trend line from May 20th low) did not make it to its target, it will have a tremendous effect on the short term direction, and may be the medium term as well. But, we need a break of today’s support at 90.49 to say that we are on the way to the same set of targets we suggested yesterday. Meaning, if we break 90.49, we will target 89.81 first, and may be 88.96 later. On the other hand, it is required to keep trading below the broken line, in order for the negative technical outlook to keep prevailing. The important line which was broken on Friday is running currently at 91.32. If we keep trading below this level, it will probably fall more & more. But, if we break above this level, the Dollar will say no to the downside scenario, and will test the area which stopped the rise twice on June 7th & June 14th at 92.07, and then 92.56. It seems like we are going to enjoy an exciting end to this week with the USDJPY. Support: • 90.49: important intraday support. • 89.81: May 26th low. • 88.96: May 20th low. Resistance: • 91.32: the retest level for the trend line which was broken on Friday. • 92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th. • 92.56: Apr 13th low. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 22, 2010 Report Share Posted June 22, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 22, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes European traders anticipate the MPC Meeting Minutes. The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report, the important 1.2389, and dropped back below 1.23, hitting 1.2282 during the Asian session, but without being able to reach the suggested target 1.2240. When looking at the attached chart, we immediately realize that this retreat could mean a lot. It came from the top of the hourly chart rising trend channel, exactly, and started a strong fall. That is why we expect this drop to go on, and keep escaping further away from the channel top. And since the bottom of this channel is already below 1.20, we expect the price to go below 1.20 on the medium term. As for the short term, the Asian session low which was tested twice 1.2282, will be support of the day. If broken, the price will keep dropping, targeting Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from this cycle’s low 1.1875. These levels are at 1.2170 & 1.2100, which became a critical medium term level. Today’s resistance is at 1.2348, and in case the price succeeds in breaking above it, it will give itself a chance to test the top of the channel yet again. The top of the channel will be the first target of this break, at 1.2457, and if broken, we will jump to 1.2519. Support: • 1.2282: Asian session low. • 1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycle’s low to yesterday’s high • 1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycle’s low to yesterday’s high Resistance: • 1.2348: important intraday level. • 1.2457: the top of the rising trend channel of the hourly chart. • 1.2519: May 6th high. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen successfully jumped to the broken trend line we talked about previously, and performed a classic retest move, very accurate, before dropping 75 pips, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! With this classic retest, the break of the rising trend line from May 20th will continue to have a tremendous effect on the short term direction, and may be the medium term as well. But, we need a break of today’s support at 90.75 to say that we are on the way to the same set of targets we suggested yesterday. Meaning, if we break 90.75, we will target 89.81 first, and may be 88.96 later. On the other hand, it is required to keep trading below the falling line descending trend line from June 14th high, in order for the negative technical outlook to keep prevailing. This important line is running currently at 91.25. If we keep trading below this level, it will probably fall more & more. But, if we break above this level, the Dollar will say no to the downside scenario, and will test the area which stopped the rise twice on June 7th & June 14th at 92.07, and then 92.56. Support: • 90.75: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 89.81: May 26th low. • 88.96: May 20th low. Resistance: • 91.25: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart. • 92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th. • 92.56: Apr 13th low. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 28, 2010 Report Share Posted June 28, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 28, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: CB Consumer Confidence Traders of the US anticipate the Consumer Confidence to be published tomorrow June 29. It measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 62.00. --- Euro Dollar After its break of the small descending channel, the Euro reached its target for this break which is a test of the top of the main descending channel for the 3rd time! It touched, and slightly surpassed, the top of this channel (please refer to the attached chart). There is nothing more important than this test, for the short, and medium terms! But, we need a confirmation of this break: first we need the Euro to keep trading above the top of the channel, and then we need it to break the Asian session high 1.2396. If the Euro manages to provide what is needed, we will completely change our negative outlook for this pair. This is why today’s levels will be support at 1.2358 & resistance at 1.2396. If we break the resistance, this will prove that the Euro is capable of capitalizing on the break of the channel, and flying higher. The targets for this break will be 1.2519 & 1.2655. On the other hand, if we drop back inside the channel, this will indicate running out of steam, and the end of the upside adventure! In this case, the case of breaking the support 1.2358, this pair will give up gains and start dropping. Targets will be 1.2260 and may be later 1.2170. Support: • 1.2358: the retest level for the broken channel. • 1.2260: Thursday’s low. • 1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycle’s low to last week’s high. Resistance: • 1.2396: Asian session high. • 1.2519: May 6th low. • 1.2655: May 11th low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen continued to drop slowly, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! USDJPY broke the support specified in Friday’s report 89.40, and reached a new bottom for this recent falling trend at 89.20. This confirms the negative technical outlook we have seen lately. And we believe it will persist as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 14th top, which is currently at 90.86. Short term support is at 89.20, and breaking it will be another evidence that we are going down. This break will target 87.99 & 87.35. Last week’s important support at 90.32 will turn into a resistance for today. Breaking this level will give this pair a chance to test the important trend line at 90.86, and if this one is broken, things will go against our outlook, as we will target 92.07. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the short & medium terms. We expect the fall to go on, but we hope to see it go faster, and more exciting. Support: • 89.20: Friday’s low. • 87.99: May 6th low. • 87.35: Dec 9th 2009 low. Resistance: • 90.32: Wednesday’s support which has turned into a resistance on the hourly chart. • 90.86: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart. • 92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 29, 2010 Report Share Posted June 29, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 29, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: GDP European traders anticipate the publication of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.30%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.2358, and dropped as expected, and reached the first suggested target 1.2260, successfully! What is funny, is that the Euro dropped more than 150 pips from the top it reached after this week’s open, while the Pound reached a 7-week high above 1.51, and consolidated just below it. Therefore, it is hard to channel the direction of the European currencies against the greenback, and this in itself calls for caution. In the case of the Euro, its fall to meet our suggested target at 1.2260 is a negative sign for the short term without a doubt, If added to the fact that this drop came after the failure to break the top of the descending channel, we can see that this is also negative for the medium term as well. Today’s support is at Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term at 1.2240, which we trade just above at the time of preparing this report. If broken, we will fall to test the more important Fibonacci levels: 50% At 1.2170, and 61.8% at 1.2100, which is the most important medium term support. The resistance is at 1.2337, and only with a break above here, this pair will improve its negative technical outlook for the short term. If broken, we will target 1.2396 once again, and if this one is also broken, we will be on the way to 1.2519. Support: • 1.2240: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from this cycle’s low to last week’s high. • 1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycle’s low to last week’s high. • 1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycle’s low to last week’s high. Resistance: • 1.2337: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.2396: the weekly high so far. • 1.2519: May 6th low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen continued to drop slowly, a bit faster than usual this morning, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! USDJPY broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 89.20, and reached a new bottom for this recent falling trend at 88.59 without being able to meet our suggested target 87.99. This confirms the negative technical outlook we have seen lately. And we believe it will persist as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 14th top, which is currently at 90.64. Short term support is at 88.67, and breaking it will be another evidence that we are going down. This break will target 87.99 & 87.35. The resistance has shifted to 89.45, where we see an important level for several reasons. Breaking this level will give this pair a chance to test the important trend line at 90.64 as a first target, and if this one is broken, things will go against our outlook, as we will target 92.07. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the short & medium terms. We expect the fall to go on, but we hope to see it go faster, and more exciting. But for today in specific, we should be careful since we could see a bounce, because we came very close to the descending trend line illustrated on the attached chart, a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp. Support: • 88.67: important intraday level. • 87.99: May 6th low. • 87.35: Dec 9th 2009 low. Resistance: • 89.45: important intraday level. • 90.64: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart. • 92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted June 30, 2010 Report Share Posted June 30, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis June 30, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room When: Today, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market. Click here to join free --- Fundamental Analysis: ISM Manufacturing Index Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. It tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The ISM index is the result of a monthly survey of over 400 companies in 20 industries throughout the 50 states. The ISM's leading quality has been proven over time. During a recession, the ISM's bottom may precede the turning point for the economic cycle by some months. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 59.00. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.2240, and dropped as expected, and reached the first suggested target 1.2170, successfully! This drop, and its reaching Fibonacci 50% for the medium term (yesterday’s target) confirms that we are –at least- in the middle of a downward correction, with its ideal target at 1.2100. But if we add to this, the fact that this drop came after the failure to break the top of the descending channel, we can see that this is also negative for the medium term as well, and we would conclude that this drop is not just a correction! We wonder: what’s after Fibonacci 50%? Today’s support is at Fibonacci 61% for the short term at 1.2186, and if broken, we will fall to test the most important Fibonacci level: The ideal target, 61.8% at 1.2100, which is the most important medium term support, if this one is broken as well the target will be 1.2006. The resistance is at 1.2312, and only with a break above here, this pair will improve its negative technical outlook for the short term. If broken, we will target 1.2396 once again, and if this one is also broken, we will be on the way to 1.2519. Support: • 1.2186: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycle’s low to last week’s high. • 1.2006: June 8th high. Resistance: • 1.2312: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart. • 1.2396: the weekly high so far. • 1.2519: May 6th low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen continued to drop slowly, a bit faster than usual yesterday, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! USDJPY broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 88.67, and reached a new bottom for this recent falling trend at 88.27 without being able to meet our suggested target 87.99. This confirms the negative technical outlook we have seen lately. And we believe it will persist as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 14th top, which is currently at 90.51. Short term support is at 88.48, and breaking it will be another evidence that we are going down. This break will target 87.99 & 87.35. The resistance has shifted to 89.31, where we see an important level for several reasons. Breaking this level will give this pair a chance to test the important trend line at 90.51 as a first target, and if this one is broken, things will go against our outlook, as we will target 91.45. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the short & medium terms. We expect the fall to go on, but we hope to see it go faster, and more exciting. But for today in specific, we should be careful since we could see a bounce, because we already touched the descending trend line illustrated on the attached chart, a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt! Support: • 88.48: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 87.99: May 6th low. • 87.35: Dec 9th 2009 low. Resistance: • 89.31: important intraday level. • 90.51: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart. • 91.45: June 21st high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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