PrivateFX expert's Analysis

[mailliam2010]

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Analytical overview EURUSD 29.09.16

The last days of the pair is trading within a relatively narrow range of 1.1270-1.1180 at the background of the lack of important macroeconomic data from Europe and the United States. But yesterday the important information came from Algeria, where OPEC held a meeting. Contrary to forecasts, the participants could still reach an agreement on the reduction of production in the 700K barrels a day, which resulted in the growth of quotations of oil, rate of commodity currencies and global stock indices, thereby weakening the dollar and the yen. The truth is the effect was rather restrained, given the unexpected events, as experts once had doubts about the possible impact of this agreement on the medium-term trend in prices of black gold. First, in the current environment, the volume of production cuts rather insignificant and fixes it around the maximum levels of the beginning of 2016. Secondly, the agreement did not join Libya, Nigeria, Iran and most importantly, clearly planning to continue the production capacity in the near future that could significantly reverse the effects of its reduction in other countries. The agreement will enter into force on 30 November and is likely in the coming days, emerging in connection with the dynamics of the market will continue, but to a lesser extent.

 

Also, the current week was filled with performances by numerous officials, including Jeanette Yellen and Mario Draghi, which attracted the most attention. Yellen's speech was devoted to banking regulation and a question regarding monetary policy, she said that while increasing the rate of discount is not clearly defined. In addition, she said that the unemployment rate is approaching full employment, but productivity and output growth is disappointing and does not have a positive impact on inflation rates. It is possible to evaluate its performance as a softer, than at a press conference after the recent meeting of the Federal Committee. Draghi also did not say anything new, having told only that he expects the maximum effect from the previously adopted incentive measures in the coming months.

 

Thus, for a pair of fundamental atmosphere changed only slightly and remains neutral in the short term.





The technical picture also remains neutral, and daily and hourly indicators are close to average values. As long as the pair remains above 1.1180 level, the potential of moving upwards to 1.1280 and then to 1.1360 saved.



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