Guest forexpros Posted March 1, 2010 Report Share Posted March 1, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 1, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home Sales Traders of North America anticipate the decision of the Bank of Canada (BOC) on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict the reading will stay at a rate of 0.25%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday’s report 1.3617, only to reach 1.3681. And after falling again closer to 1.36, the resistance 1.3648 came back into play, but the most important resistance in these areas is provided by the falling trend line from 1.3838 which is currently at 1.3713. We see that a break of 1.3648 means that the price will be heading to test the most important resistance (1.3713) as a first target for this break. And if this is also broken, we will head towards the second target 1.3810. The support is at 1.3589, and breaking it would leave us with no reason to wait for a test of 1.3713 in the short term. On the contrary we will be closer to a new test of the important support area between Wednesday’s low 1.3450, and Feb 18th low 1.3442. If the Euro breaks support at 1.3589, the downtrend will resume, targeting 1.3496 & 1.3442. Support: • 1.3589: the low since this week’s open. • 1.3496: Feb 18th low. • 1.3442: Feb 19th low. Resistance: • 1.3648: important intraday top. • 1.3713: the falling trend line from 1.3838. • 1.3810: important resistance level on hourly charts. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in Friday’s report 89.50, but it stopped 19 pips before the suggested target 88.53. And as we start a new week, we see the Dollar-Yen trying to break the falling trend line from 92.31 on the intraday charts. If it succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This trend line is very close to the resistance 89.34, and that is why this resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.34 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far (please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day, and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue, and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably important support levels. Support: • 88.81: Oct 7th low. • 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 87.35: Dec 9th low. Resistance: • 89.34: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. • 90.83: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 2, 2010 Report Share Posted March 2, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 2, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ADP National Employment Report tomorrow March 2. The report measures the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data, is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of -10.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro stopped only 4 pips above the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.3648, and fell hard, breaking the support 1.3589, and successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.3496. It also came sort of close to the second target 1.3442 (yesterdays low was 1.3459). We note on the attached chart that yesterday’s low came very close to the trend line slowly rising from 1.3422, to the extent that it could be considered as a 3rd touch of the line. Thus, this line has gained more importance. Usually, when the price stops and creates a series of bottoms that are so close to each other (1.3442, 1.3450 & yesterday 1.3459), and provides us a slightly rising trend line as it is the case, a break of this line will result in a big move on the medium term, and this is to be expected here. A break of this line could result in a move approaching 1.30 in a very few weeks. For the short term, the above mentioned line provides support at 1.3465, and if it gets broken, we see the Euro falling to 1.3390 & 1.3299. The resistance is provided by Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 1.3578, and if broken the Euro will catch a breath, and jump to 1.3652, and may be 1.3740. Support: • 1.3465: the slightly rising trend line from 1.3422. • 1.3390: Apr 13th high. • 1.3299: Apr 24th high. Resistance: • 1.3578: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3652: important resistance level on hourly charts. • 1.3740: previous well known resistance area. --- USD/JPY Not a lot of motion in the past 24 hours, it seems that this pair is still building a base, in a step to change short term direction. Today, we see the Dollar-Yen trying to break the falling trend line from 89.48 on the intraday charts. If it succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This trend line is very close to the resistance 89.39, and that is why this resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.39 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far (please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day, and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue, and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably important support levels. Support: • 88.81: Oct 7th low. • 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 87.35: Dec 9th low. Resistance: • 89.39: the slightly falling trend line from 89.48 on the intraday charts. • 90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. • 90.83: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 3, 2010 Report Share Posted March 3, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 3, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision European traders anticipate the publication of the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a reading of 1.00%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.3465, but it did not break the important bottom 1.3422. Then it bounced back very sharply, breaking the resistance 1.3578 and successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.3652 with astonishing accuracy (the high so far is 1.3653). Evidence now shows that there is a respectable probability that we have formed a short term top at 1.3653. Such evidence is provided by the overbought indicators, stopping at a well known resistance, and the retreat that started immediately after reaching the target. If this turns to be the case, the price will fall, and break short term support 1.3600. And here, the odds will clearly favor a short term drop. Ideal targets would be the important 1.3517, and if broken 1.3450. We do not advise to take any kind of bias towards the Euro before breaking the current daily high 1.3653. If this happens, the Euro’s uprising will continue, targeting 1.3740 & 1.3810. Support: • 1.3600: Fibonacci 23.6% for the short term & 38.2% for the micro term. • 1.3517: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3450: Feb 25th low. Resistance: • 1.3653: important resistance level on hourly charts. • 1.3740: previous well known resistance area. • 1.3810: Feb 10th high. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.81 only to stop in the middle of the way to the suggested target, settling for 88.46. This break gives chance to more of the drop, but on one important condition. This condition is to stay below, and not break, the falling trend line from 92.13, which is currently only pips below the current price, at 88.88. If the price stays below this line, more drop is to be expected. Short term support is at 88.53, and if broken we will move slowly towards 88, where the targets 88.00 & 87.35 awaits. The technical outlook stays negative as long as we are below the resistance of the day 88.88. But in case this level is broken, USDJPY will enter a long awaited correction for the whole drop from 92.13, with the ideal targets at Dow & Fibonacci levels 89.68 & 90.30. Support: • 88.53: the most important support on intraday charts. • 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 87.35: Dec 9th low. Resistance: • 89.88: the falling trend line from 92.13 on the hourly charts, the upper limit for the downtrend. • 89.68: Dow 33.3% for the drop from 92.31. • 90.30: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 92.31. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 4, 2010 Report Share Posted March 4, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 4, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: US Unemployment Rate Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Unemployment Rate, which is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 9.80%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro stopped only 8 pips below the support specified in yesterday’s report, and rocketed once again, breaking the resistance 1.3653, and stopping only 5 pips below our suggested target 1.3740. Today, we see its best to count on short term levels to lead the way for the single currency on the short term. Short term support is at Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term (which the price stopped accurately at almost an hour ago). If we break this level, the Euro will start a drop that we expect to be strong, and will target the most important support (for the short term) 1.3549, and if this level is also broken, the drop will go on, and we will probably see another weekly low below Tuesday’s 1.3434. As for the resistance, it is provided by the falling trend line from yesterday’s high, and is currently at 1.3691. If broken, the Euro will continue this sharp rise, and will target 1.3799 & 1.3885. Support: • 1.3645: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term. • 1.3549: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3434: Tuesday’s low. Resistance: • 1.3691: the falling trend line from yesterday’s high on intraday charts. • 1.3799: Feb 11th high. • 1.3885: Feb 2nd low. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.53 only to stop in the middle of the way to the suggested target, settling for 88.31. This break gives chance to more drop, but on one important condition. This condition is to stay below, and not break, the falling trend line from 92.13, which is currently only pips above the current price, at 88.53. If the price stays below this line, more drop is to be expected. Short term support is at 88.31, and if broken we will move slowly towards 87, where the targets 87.72 & 87.00 awaits. The technical outlook stays negative as long as we are below the resistance of the day 88.53. But in case this level is broken, USDJPY will enter a long awaited correction for the whole drop from 92.13, with the ideal targets at Dow & Fibonacci levels 89.58 & 90.22. Support: • 88.31: Asian session low. • 87.72: Dec 10th low. • 87.00: Nov 27th high. Resistance: • 88.53: the falling trend line from 92.13 on the hourly charts, the upper limit for the downtrend. • 89.58: Dow 33.3% for the drop from 92.31. • 90.22: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 92.31. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 8, 2010 Report Share Posted March 8, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 8, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: GBP - Trade Balance European traders anticipate the publication of the Trade Balance index. The index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of a country's balance of payments. Export data can give reflection on the UK growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the GBP. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a reading of -7.00B. --- Euro Dollar The Euro is approaching 1.37 as these words are written, and it has topped Fibonacci 76.4% for the short term (1.3686) with very few points, before retreating marginally to 1.3667. We have attached a chart with a suggested wave count, in which there is a set of 5 clear waves, with all the Elliott rules respected within this set. Thus, as long as the Euro is below the point which started this set, we assure the downtrend is in control, and we assume that the rise from 1.3529 on Friday which is approaching 1.37 now, is only a corrective one. The resistance 1.3686 will be resistance of the day. If this level is broken, the Euro will jump to .3769 & may be 1.3838 as well. If the price starts to go above 1.37, it is important to keep an eye on 1.3734, because this top has a lot of “Elliott” importance (since below it: downtrend, and above it: uptrend). As for the support it is at 1.3652, breaking it would target 1.3590, and Friday’s bottom 1.3529 which may be important. Support: • 1.3652: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 1.3590: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3529: Friday’s low. Resistance: • 1.3686: Fibonacci 76.4% for the drop from 1.3734. • 1.3769: the top of the falling channel on the hourly charts, and a very important resistance for the short term & the medium term. • 1.3838: Feb 9th high. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in Friday’s report 89.46, and moved exactly as expected, targeting Fibonacci levels, and reaching both suggested targets 90.22 & 90.67 successfully & accurately (today’s high so far is 90.66. Fibonacci resistance 90.60 will be the most important for today, especially after the price has reached it & came back down to the Asian session low. The next few hours will be a match between a very sharp rising correction & a Fibonacci retracement level determined to stop it. If this resistance is broken, the correction will go on and will target 91.18 & the important 91.67. Support: • 90.29: hourly support. • 89.69: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 89.09: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. Resistance: • 90.60: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 92.31. • 91.18: hourly resistance. • 91.67: previous hourly support. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For information on US dollar index see ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 9, 2010 Report Share Posted March 9, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 9, 2010 Fundamental Analysis: JPY - GDP (QoQ) Traders anticipate the publication of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY. Analysts predict a reading of 1.00%. --- Euro Dollar The slightly surpassed 1.37, but only to retreat right after. We believe that the most important thing that happened in the past 24 hours is the Euro’s inability to overcome 1.3734, the point from which the 5 waves down started (please refer to the chart). And as we said yesterday, as long as the price is below this level, we are closer to a downtrend, and also, this wave count will be valid. Short term support is provided by Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3595, and it was touched down to the point while writing this report. If the price holds above it we can hope for a bounce, especially if the price breaks short term resistance 1.3648. If this level is broken, the price will start to rise strongly, and this strong rise will be able to break 1.37, targeting 1.3755 and may be 1.3838. But as we said, we should pay attention to the Euro’s ability to break 1.3734 or not, since this hold a special importance. If the price goes back down, and breaks 1.3595, we expect the pair to fall to 1.3529, and at a later time to continue towards the 1.34 areas where there is 1.3459. Support: • 1.3595: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 1.3529: Friday’s low. • 1.3459: Mar 1st low. Resistance: • 1.3648: the falling trend line from yesterday’s high on intraday charts. • 1.3755: the top of the falling channel on the hourly charts, and a very important resistance for the short term & the medium term. • 1.3838: Feb 9th high. --- USD/JPY Fibonacci resistance 90.66 has succeeded in reversing the short term direction, the price fell to 89.86 this morning, before barely going above 90 again. This rebound from Fibonacci retracement level with very good accuracy is evidence that the general direction of the short-term is down. If this turns out to be true, we will see the Dollar-Yen breaking the nearby support 89.90, and trying to attack the Fibonacci support 89.09 which will act as a first target for this break, and the level that if broken, we can say that the drop from 90.66 is more than a correction. If this level is also broken, the target would be 88.46, on the way to lower targets. As for the resistance it is provided by the falling trend line from this week’s high so far 90.66, which is at 90.21. If this line is broken, we will be on the way to another weekly high, since the targets for such a break would be 90.84 & the well known important resistance 91.67. Support: • 89.90: intraday support. • 89.09: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 88.46: previous hourly support. Resistance: • 90.21: the falling trend line from 90.66 • 90.84: Nov 5th & 6th high. • 91.67: previous hourly support. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. For information on our Forex Quotes see ForexPros. __________________ Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 10, 2010 Report Share Posted March 10, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 10, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Trade Balance index. The index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of a country's balance of payments. Export data can give reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of -41.00B. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support 1.3595, and stopped only 7 pips below the suggested target, and created another bottom in the same area of last Friday's low (1.3529). This boring behavior, and moving back and forth in almost the same areas in the past days, made us wonder if we could be in a triangle of some sort. If this is true, the triangle limits are 1.3673 & 1.3557, but we will espouse Fibonacci 61.8% support & resistance at 1.3566 & 1.3639 to be today's levels. We can only hope to end this boredom with a break of one of these levels. If the resistance at 1.3639 is broken, we expect the Euro to jump and test the top of the falling channel at 1.3729. And if this important resistance is broken too, we will see the Euro flying to 1.3810. On the other hand, if the support at 1.3566 is broken, we expect a test of the rising trend line from 1.3442 as a first target (this line is currently running at 1.3472), and if broken we will reach a fresh cycle low at 1.3390. Support: * 1.3566: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 1.3472: the rising trend line from 1.3442 on the hourly charts. * 1.3390: Apr 13th high. Resistance: * 1.3639: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 1.3729: the top of the falling channel on the hourly charts, and a very important resistance for the short term & the medium term. * 1.3810: Feb 10th high. --- USD/JPY After Fibonacci resistance 90.66 has succeeded in reversing the short term direction, the price traded under it for the whole past 24 hours, reaching a low of 89.61, and drifting away more than 100 pips from the weekly high, which is in total agreement with Fibonacci analysis that suggests we had a short term direction-changing top at 90.66.This rebound from Fibonacci retracement level with very good accuracy is evidence that the general direction of the short-term is down. If this turns out to be true, we will see the Dollar-Yen breaking the nearby support 89.69, and trying to attack the Fibonacci support 89.09 which will act as a first target for this break, and in case this level is broken, we can say that the drop from 90.66 is more than a correction. If this level is also broken, the target would be 88.46, on the way to lower targets. As for the resistance it is provided by short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance, at 90.26. If this line is broken, we will be on the way to another weekly high, since the targets for such a break would be 90.84 & the well known important resistance 91.67. Support: * 89.69: Fibonacci 50% for the short term. * 89.09: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 88.46: previous hourly support. Resistance: * 90.26: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from this week's high. * 90.84: Nov 5th & 6th high. * 91.67: previous hourly support. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. For information on our Forex Quotes see ForexPros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 11, 2010 Report Share Posted March 11, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 11, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market Expert: Anthony Cherniawski When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Retail Sales Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Retail Sales. The Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of -0.10%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro confirmed it is building the triangle that we suggested yesterday, after it dropped only pips below the lower triangle line, and then it bounced back and rose until it touched the upper line in a very accurate fashion (please refer to the attached chart). The price is still trading within the triangle exactly as it was suggested yesterday, waiting for a real and decisive break for one of its limits. These limits have narrowed towards 1.3658 & 1.3581. We can only hope to end this boredom with a break of one of these levels. If the resistance at 1.3658 is broken, we expect the Euro to jump and test the last week’s at 1.3734. And if this important resistance is broken too, we will see the Euro flying to 1.3861. On the other hand, if the support at 1.3581 is broken, we expect a test of the rising trend line from 1.3442 as a first target (this line is currently running at 1.3477), and if broken we will reach a fresh cycle low at 1.3379. Support: • 1.3581: the lower limit of the triangle formation. • 1.3477: the rising trend line from 1.3442 on the hourly charts. • 1.3379: Apr 14th high. Resistance: • 1.3658: the upper limit of the triangle formation. • 1.3734: Mar 3rd top. • 1.3861: Jan 26th low. --- USD/JPY The Dollar-Yen kept trading above the important support 89.69 all through the past 24 hours, and it rose breaking the resistance 90.26, and as we expected reached a new weekly high at 90.80, only 4 pips below our suggested target. With this obvious penetration of 90.60, the Dollar is in a good position to achieve more gains, since the technical plea in favor of the Yen (which is stopping accurately at a Fibonacci resistance level) is no longer there. This advancement which reached 90.80 so far, is invited to hold above short term support 90.06, in order to achieve more gains. The resistance is at 90.60, and if broken, USDJPY will jump strongly, targeting 91.60, and then 92.31. IF the support is the level which will give way, this would be an indication that yesterday’s rise has shown all that it could, and the pair will slip again towards 89.33, and may be the important bottom 88.53. Support: • 90.06: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 89.33: Jan 26th low. • 88.53: Feb 4th important bottom. Resistance: • 90.60: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 92.13. • 91.60: Oct 29th high. • 92.31: Oct 26th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. For information on our Forex Quotes see ForexPros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 15, 2010 Report Share Posted March 15, 2010 Forexpros Daily Analysis March 15, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thursday, Mar 18, 2010, 10:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading. This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision Traders of the US await the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.25%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro rose breaking the resistance 1.3734, jumping 60 pips above it, coming very close to 1.38, but without reaching the first suggested target 1.3838. This expected rise came as a result of breaking the triangle to the upside, and the positive technical outlook which followed this break, and we have talked about it on Friday. To maintain this positive outlook, the Euro should hold above the most important support for the short term 1.3635. But of course, a correction won’t harm the outlook, as long as it holds above this support. The closest short term support is 1.3726, and breaking it would indicate a normal correction after the last rise, with the ideal target at 1.3635, the most important support for the time being. Only if this level is broken that we expect further downside activity targeting 1.3543. As for the resistance it is at 1.3768, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the rise that followed the triangle break. The targets for such a break would be the important 1.3838, and after that we might see 1.3928, as the Euro tries to approach the important 1.40 landmark. Support: • 1.3726: important intraday support. • 1.3635: the retest level for the broken trend line with in the triangle formation. • 1.3543: Mar 10th low. Resistance: • 1.3768: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3838: Feb 9th high. • 1.3928: Jul 3rd low. --- USD/JPY Although the Dollar-Yen reached a new top for this cycle on Friday at 91.07, it closed slightly down, at only 5 pips below the open price, which makes this day a candidate for a “Reversal Day” pattern. Also, the very small real body for Friday’s candlestick makes it very close to a “Doji” pattern, and if we want to be extra specific we can refer to it as a “Shooting Star” candle pattern. All these indications give us one direction: down. Short term support is provided by the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, which is currently at 90.33. If broken, this positive outlook will get the support it needs to push down. The next set of targets will be 89.61 & 89.04. As for the resistance it is at 90.76, and in case it is broken, the price will contradict all these technical signals, and would jump strongly to 91.60, and may be later to the important 92.31. Support: • 90.33: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart. • 89.61: Mar 9th low. • 89.04: Nov 24th high. Resistance: • 90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 91.60: Oct 29th high. • 92.31: Oct 26th high. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for ForexPros.com. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 16, 2010 Report Share Posted March 16, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 16, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 10:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading. This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: BoJ Press Conference March 17th: Bank of Japan will be holding a press conference, their preferred method of communicating with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates. --- Euro Dollar We said yesterday “To maintain this positive outlook, the Euro should hold above the most important support for the short term 1.3635. But of course, a correction won’t harm the outlook, as long as it holds above this support.” And it seems that the Euro was eavesdropping! The price broke the support 1.3726, and dropped as expected in a correction which stopped only 3 pips before the “ideal target” 1.3635! As we can see in the chart, yesterday’s low was close to 2 important support levels: the upper line in the triangle & Fibonacci 61.8%.Thus, the outlook is still positive and will be as long as we are above 1.3635. This is the “support of the day” & if broken, we expect the Euro to drop strongly, and target 1.3543 first, and may be the important 1.3480 after that. The resistance is at 1.3743 & breaking it would indicate a resumption of the uptrend that followed the break of the triangle. The next set of targets will be the important 1.3838, and may be we will see 1.3928, while the Euro approaches the 1.40 important landmark. Support: • 1.3635: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3543: Mar 10th low. • 1.3480: the rising trend line from 1.3442 on the hourly chart. Resistance: • 1.3734: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3838: Feb 9th high. • 1.3928: Jul 3rd low. --- USD/JPY After yesterday’s report was issued, the Dollar-Yen rose to 90.78 (2 pips above the resistance of the report 90.76), then the expected drop started breaking the support 90.33, and reached 89.97 so far. Although the downtrend did not reach its expected targets, and hardly gained 80 pips from yesterday’s top, but we believe that the technical evidences have triumphed. And today they are still pointing lower, especially after breaking 90.33. We expect the “shooting star” pattern that happened on Friday to keep pressuring the price, driving it down. Short term resistance is at 90.47 which combines Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday’s drop, with the retest level of the rising trend line from 89.61 which was broken yesterday. The downtrend will be ok as long as we are below this level. But if it is broken, the direction will be opposite to all the technical evidences that point down. And the price will jump to 91.07 & 91.60. While the support is at 90.02, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop which started yesterday at 90.78. The next set of targets will be 89.37 & 88.72. Support: • 90.02: important intraday support. • 89.37: Mar 2nd low • 88.72: Feb 26th low. Resistance: • 90.47: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 91.07: Friday’s low. • 91.60: Oct 29th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. For information on our Forex Quotes see ForexPros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 17, 2010 Report Share Posted March 17, 2010 Forexpros Daily Analysis March 17, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Thursday, Mar 18, 2010, 10:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading. This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Core CPI (MoM) Traders of the US await the publication of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.10%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro spent the whole last 24 hours above the important 1.3635 support, broke the 1.3734, and approached 1.38 again, reaching 1.3785 until the moment of preparing this report, 9 pips below Friday’s top. This behavior comes in agreement, with technical outlook that we have adopted in the past 2 days after 1.3635 survived the test. But, the Euro was supposed to achieve more than this, and not to stop on the first barrier on the way up 1.3794. The most important support for the short term now is 1.3742, and holding above it is crucial in order to achieve more gains. But if broken, we will head to another test of the important 1.3635, and breaking it would topple the price to 1.3543. The nearest resistance is 1.3794, and if broken, the positive technical outlook will be confirmed, and we will finally see the important resistance levels above 1.38, the most important for today is 1.3861, and may be we will then see 1.3936, while the Euro approaches the 1.40 important landmark. Support: • 1.3742: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term. • 1.3635: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3543: Mar 10th low. Resistance: • 1.3794: Friday’s high. • 1.3861: Jan 29th low. • 1.3938: Jan 28th low. --- USD/JPY Opposite to what is expected, the Dollar-Yen held above the support specified in yesterday’s report 90.02, and broke the resistance 90.47, but the movement was extremely limited, with the price topping at 90.66. We have adjusted the lines that frame the current area, to make the upper limit at Monday’s top 90.78, which is very close to last Wednesday’s top 90.80. The lower limit is provided by the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, and is currently at 90.12, which was tested yesterday, and passed the test. In case we broke the resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we broke the rising trend line at 90.12, the price will start to fall, confirming the negative technical outlook which came after Friday’s price behaviour. This fall is expected to target 89.37 & 88.72. But before breaking any of these 2 important limits, the technical outlook is mixed. Support: • 90.12: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart. • 89.37: Mar 2nd low • 88.72: Feb 26th low. Resistance: • 90.78: Monday’s high. • 91.60: Oct 29th high. • 92.31: Oct 27th high. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for ForexPros.com. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 18, 2010 Report Share Posted March 18, 2010 Forexpros Daily Analysis March 18, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders. Expert: Sam Seiden When: Today, Mar 18, 2010, 10:00 EST During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading. This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail Sales Canadian traders await the publication of the Core Retail Sales. The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in Canada, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the Canadian economy . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.50%, up from the previous 0.40%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro’s rally halted just above 1.38, and fell back fast & strong. As we can see from the attached chart, the Euro fell towards a very important support which is the lower trend line in the triangle that we talked about in the past few days. And as we can see on the chart as well, the price has already touched this line as well. Holding above, or breaking this line is the single thing that will determine the direction of the day. Thus 1.3665 is the most important support, if the Euro continues its fall and breaks it, huge implication for the short & medium term will arise! The most important of which is that the chances to drop to a new bottom in this cycle, below the 9-month low 1.3434 will be huge. As for the short term, if 1.3665 is broken, we will see the price fall to 1.3550, and may be towards 1.3442 as well. But if the price holds above 1.3665, it will rise to challenge the resistance 1.3710. And if this level is broken, we expect a strong jump towards yesterday’s high 1.3816, and then it will try to reach 1.39. Support: • 1.3665: the rising trend line from 1.3434, and the lower line in the triangle formation. • 1.3550: March 4th low. • 1.3442: Feb 19th low. Resistance: • 1.3710: the falling trend line from yesterday’s high on intraday charts. • 1.3816: yesterday’s high. • 1.3901: Feb 4th high. --- USD/JPY It seems as if the Dollar-Yen is trapped! And that it is stuck between the two limits we talked about in yesterday’s report, since we have not seen a break of either of them, as the price continued to trade marginally. Yesterday, we adjusted the lines that frame the current area, to make the upper limit at Monday’s top 90.78, which is very close to last Wednesday’s top 90.80. The lower limit is provided by the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, which has been tested several times so far. We will adopt the support just below this line at 90.04 as short term support In case we broke the resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we broke the rising trend line at 90.04, the price will start to fall, confirming the negative technical outlook which came after Friday’s price behaviour. This fall is expected to target 89.37 & 88.53. But before breaking any of these 2 important limits, the technical outlook will be mixed. Support: • 90.04: important support just below the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart. • 89.37: Mar 2nd low • 88.53: Feb 4th low. Resistance: • 90.78: Monday’s high. • 91.60: Oct 29th high. • 92.31: Oct 27th high. --- Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for forexpros.com. --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 22, 2010 Report Share Posted March 22, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 22, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Inter-Market Analysis and 2010 Forecast for the Dollar and Commodities Expert: Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri When: Thu, Mar 25, 2010, 15:00 GMT In this webinar Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri will discuss the Inter-Market Analysis and markets relationships. He will relate to the issue of how to use Moving Averages to track the best support and resistance area, which will be a signal for the Buy areas or Sell areas. 0-forecast-for-the-dollar-and-commodities-11153'>Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home Sales Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the existing home sales report. It measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 5.00M. --- Euro Dollar The Euro retreated, breaking the support specified in Friday's report 1.3597, dropped as expected but settled for 1.3501, a whole 21 pips above the suggested target 1.3480. But what took place was a confirmation that reaching 1.38 has caused the Euro a lot of exhaustion. In addition to the fact that the "Reversal Day" pattern which took place on Wednesday was heavy on the pair. We can see on the attached daily chart that we are trading within a pretty harmonized channel, and it is exciting to see that the bottom of this channel is at 1.30, so are we heading there? The continuous shine of the Dollar, and the extreme strength it showed on Friday against the Pound in specific, and also against the Euro indicate that we are probably getting there> As for the short term, the support is at Friday's low 1.3501, and if broken, the drop will resume, targeting the important support, which has a few bottoms just above it: 1.3422, and then 1.3341. As for the resistance it is at 1.3542, and breaking it would indicate that the price will correct the big drop, with the ideal targets for this correction are 1.3621 & 1.3696. Support: * 1.3501: Friday's low. * 1.3422: May 18th low. * 1.3341: May 8th low. Resistance: * 1.3542: Asian session top. * 1.3621: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. * 1.3696: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. --- USD/JPY The Dollar-Yen approached the magnetic resistance 90.78 once again on Friday, as the daily high formed only 8 pips below it. The price did not move much afterwards, in a price behaviour reminding us of the boredom which we lived with this pair recently. Last week, we adjusted the lines that frame the current area, to make the upper limit at Monday's & Thursday's top 90.78, which is very close to last Wednesday's top 90.80, and close to Friday's top 90.70. The lower limit is provided by the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, which has been tested several time, before being broken. This line is currently at 90.33. In case we break the magnetic resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we broke the rising trend line at 90.33, the price will resume yesterday's fall which halted at 89.74, confirming the negative technical outlook which we cheered for all this week. This fall is expected to target 89.37 & 88.53. Support: * 90.33: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart. * 89.37: Mar 2nd low * 88.53: Feb 4th low. Resistance: * 90.78: Monday's high. * 91.60: Oct 29th high. * 92.31: Oct 27th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 23, 2010 Report Share Posted March 23, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 23, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Inter-Market Analysis and 2010 Forecast for the Dollar and Commodities Expert: Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri When: Thu, Mar 25, 2010, 15:00 GMT In this webinar Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri will discuss the Inter-Market Analysis and markets relationships. He will relate to the issue of how to use Moving Averages to track the best support and resistance area, which will be a signal for the Buy areas or Sell areas. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index European traders anticipate the publication of the German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index. The index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone. The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 96.00. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.3501, only to stop in the middle of the way to the target 1.3422, at 1.3462 in specific. This is the fifth time that the EURUSD reaches a daily low in the same area, without being able to break it. In Addition to yesterday’s low, the Euro has bottomed in the neighborhood on: Feb 19th (low 1.3442), Feb 25th (low 1.3450), Mar 1st (low 1.3459) & Mar 2nd (low 1.3434). And after 3 weeks, we come back to the same area, as if we needed another bottom here to realize just how important this support area is. But, we were expecting to see a break of the wide and strong support area which concerned us for more than a month so far: 1.3434-1.3462. It is with no doubt that any attempts to reach 1.30 on the medium term will not have a good chance unless this support is broken. Short term analysis provides that the support is at 1.3502, and breaking it would give another chance to break the 1.34 areas. The targets for this break will be 1.3442 first, and then 1.3341. As for the resistance it is at 1.3566, and breaking it would mean we are already correcting the last drop from the 1.38 top, and the targets for this correction will be 1.3621 & 1.3696. Support: • 1.3502: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.3422: May 18th low. • 1.3341: May 8th low. Resistance: • 1.3566: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term. • 1.3621: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 1.3696: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. --- USD/JPY The Dollar-Yen broke the rising trend line from 89.61, and the support specified in yesterday’s report 90.33, dropped to 89.81, without being able to go lower than Thursday’s low 89.74. This morning the price came back to test the broken trend line (please refer to the attached chart). But we believe, even if the price came back over the broken line, the technical outlook will not turn positive, since we are still below 90.78. Last week, we adjusted the lines that frame the current area, to make the upper limit at Monday’s & Thursday’s top 90.78, which is very close to last Wednesday’s top 90.80, and close to Friday’s top 90.70. In case we break the magnetic resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we break the nearby support 90.23, drifting away from 90.78 will actually start, and we will be on the way to target 89.37 & 88.53. Support: • 90.23: important intraday support. • 89.37: Mar 2nd low • 88.53: Feb 4th low. Resistance: • 90.78: Monday’s high. • 91.60: Oct 29th high. • 92.31: Oct 27th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 24, 2010 Report Share Posted March 24, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 24, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Inter-Market Analysis and 2010 Forecast for the Dollar and Commodities Expert: Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri When: Thu, Mar 25, 2010, 15:00 GMT In this webinar Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri will discuss the Inter-Market Analysis and markets relationships. He will relate to the issue of how to use Moving Averages to track the best support and resistance area, which will be a signal for the Buy areas or Sell areas. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Retail Sales Great Britain traders anticipate the publication of the Retail Sales. It is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.60%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3502, and dropped a little, then it bounced back to stop accurately at the resistance specified in the report 1.3566 (the highest price after issuance the report is 1.3561). After that, the dropped & went back to confirm the 1.3502 break, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3422, reaching 1.3405 until the moment of preparing this report. With this move, the Euro finally penetrated the important support area which contains 5 daily lows, which we talked about in details yesterday. Also, with this move, the technical outlook for the medium term has "officially" turned negative, and we do expect the Euro to sink below 1.30 in the near future. As for the short term, the resistance is 1.3446 & the support is 1.3390. If we break the support at 1.3390, the price will confirm the break which has already took place for the wide support area 1.3434-1.3462, the price will start falling targeting 1.3326 and may be 1.3256. But if the resistance 1.3446 is broken, the price will take off, looking for Fibonacci resistance levels which will form today's targets 1.3501 first, and if broken 1.3611. Support: * 1.3390: Apr 13th high. * 1.3326: Jan 28th high. * 1.3256: Mar 27th 2009 high. Resistance: * 1.3446: the falling trend line from 1.3561 on the intraday charts. * 1.3501: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 1.3611: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816. --- USD/JPY The Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range between 90.17 & 90.60 without being able to break the most important resistance 90.78. Boredom is still the headline, awaiting a potential break of 90.78, or starting to drift away from it. Last week, we adjusted the lines that frame the current area, to make the upper limit at Monday's & Thursday's top 90.78, which is very close to last Wednesday's top 90.80, and close to Friday's top 90.70. And today we will adjust the lower limit for this area, by re-drawing the rising trend line from 89.61 to contain the recent price behaviour. The above mentioned line is at 89.99. In case we break the magnetic resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we break the new trend line at 89.99, the expected drifting away from 90.78 will start, and we will be heading to 89.37 & 88.53. Support: * 89.99: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, after adjustment. * 89.37: Mar 2nd low * 88.53: Feb 4th low. Resistance: * 90.78: Monday's high. * 91.60: Oct 29th high. * 92.31: Oct 27th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 25, 2010 Report Share Posted March 25, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 25, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Inter-Market Analysis and 2010 Forecast for the Dollar and Commodities Expert: Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri When: Today, Mar 25, 2010, 15:00 GMT In this webinar Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri will discuss the Inter-Market Analysis and markets relationships. He will relate to the issue of how to use Moving Averages to track the best support and resistance area, which will be a signal for the Buy areas or Sell areas. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ) Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the GDP measurement. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The Annualized (quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. Consumption is by far the largest component in the GDP of the US and has the most affect on it. The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 5.90%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3390 , and dropped reaching the first suggested target 1.3326 successfully, before dipping below 1.33 for the first time since May 7th of last year. This collapse is completely expected, not only that, but we believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a strong and massive medium term drop which has already started! We will not be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on the contrary, we look forward with eager to that. As for the short term, we may see a correction that retests the support area 1.3434-1.3462 before the weekend, and we may not! This depends on breaking the short term support or resistance. We see resistance at 1.3459, and the EURUSD will stay harmed, trading under a very negative technical outlook as long as we are below this resistance. But if a surprise takes us above this level, we will correct the last wave down from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3550 & 1.3612. As for the support it is at 1.3303 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop. We do expect large targets to be met before the weekend, such as 1.3190 & 1.3088. Support: * 1.3303: important intraday support. * 1.3190: Apr 30th low. * 1.3088: Apr 10th low. Resistance: * 1.3459: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 1.3550: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816. * 1.3612: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816. --- USD/JPY After days & days of putting it under our surveillance, and pouring all our attention on it, the "magnetic" resistance 90.78 was broken and we have seen what follows the break of such important levels. The Dollar jumped strongly breaking the specified resistance in yesterday's report 90.78 & successfully reaching both suggested targets 91.60 & 92.31, stopping only 7 pips above the second target! With this break, the Dollar has released itself from pressure, and the direction of the Dollar in this pair could now agree with its direction against the European currencies, and we could end up seeing a board Dollar rally against all majors. After this rocketing rise, a correction is normally expected, and here, the previous critical resistance 90.78 has turned to a support that the price should hold above. Short term support is at 91.40 & breaking it would indicate a drop to 90.78 to retest it. If price holds above it, or at least close to it, there will be no harm. But it we go back below this level, the positive technical outlook will get hit hard, and price will drop towards 89.99. As for the resistance it is at 92.09 & if broken, the current rise will continue, and the Dollar will rise to a new set of targets which includes: 93.20 & 93.75. Support: * 91.40: short term 38.2% Fibonacci support. * 90.78: the previous important resistance, and Fibonacci 61.8%. * 89.99: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart. Resistance: * 92.09: the falling trend line from yesterday's top. * 93.20: Jan 4th high. * 93.75: Jan 8th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 29, 2010 Report Share Posted March 29, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 29, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Day Trading Strategies Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading When: Wed, Apr 28, 2010, 10:00 EST In this webinar Mark Hodge, Head Coach at Rockwell Trading, will show you powerful day trading strategies that can be used to trade leveraged markets. He'll show you what settings to use, the rules, and when to enter and when to exit a trade. In addition, he'll cover: 1. A "secret" way to display charts that makes chart reading much easier 2. What markets to trade and why 3. What indicators to use to determine if the market is trending or moving sideways This webinar is #1 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading. Don't forget to check the ForexPros calendar to register for Parts 2 and 3! Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ) Traders of the UK anticipate the publication of the GDP measurement. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.30%. --- Euro Dollar The Euro continued to rise from last week's low, Friday's low, and the 10-month low 1.3266. It challenged the important resistance 1.3453, surpassed it clearly. But in spite of that we wonder: Can it go back to uptrend? The collapse which happened late last week is completely expected, not only that, but we believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a strong and massive medium term drop which has already started! We will not be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on the contrary, we look forward with eager to that. But after dropping from 1.38 to 1.32 in a few days, a rising correction is normal & logical thing and holds no surprises. Thus, we should focus of the projected targets for this correction. As for the short term, we see resistance at the nearby 1.3453, and the EURUSD will stay harmed, trading under a very negative technical outlook as long as we are below this resistance. But if a surprise takes us above this level one more time, we will correct the last wave down from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3541 & 1.3606. As for the support it is at 1.3385 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop. We do expect large targets to be met for the short term, such as 1.3283 & 1.3190. Support: * 1.3385: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from yesterday's bottom. * 1.3283: Thursday's low. * 1.3190: Apr 30th low. Resistance: * 1.3453: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 1.3541: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816. * 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen did not move a lot on Friday, and failed to create any moves that could change the technical picture. As we said on the last report of the past week, what is important can be seen when taking a look at the daily chart, and spotting that break of a one year old trend line which frustrated the Dollar deeply on 3 previous occasions. This break turns the medium term outlook to positive, after breaking 90.78 did the same for the short term outlook. With this break, the Dollar has released itself from pressure, and the direction of the Dollar in this pair could now agree with its direction against the European currencies, and we could end up seeing a board Dollar rally against all majors. After this rocketing rise, a correction is normally expected, and here, the previous critical resistance 90.78 has turned to a support that the price should hold above. Short term support is at 92.29 & breaking it would indicate a drop to 91.34 first, and may be then another drop to 90.78 to retest it. If price holds above it, or at least close to it, there will be no harm. But it we go back below this level, the positive technical outlook will get hit hard. As for the resistance it is at 92.77 & if broken, the current rise will continue, and the Dollar will rise to a new set of important targets above 93 which includes: 93.20 & 93.75. Support: * 92.29: Friday's low. * 91.34: short term Fibonacci 50% support. * 90.78: the previous magnetic resistance, which turned to the most important support now Resistance: * 92.77: important intraday resistance. * 93.20: Jan 4th high. * 93.75: Jan 8th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted March 31, 2010 Report Share Posted March 31, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis March 31, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - "Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy" Expert: Kellie Durazo, FX V-room When: Wed, Apr 14, 2010, 10:00 EST During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market. This webinar is brought to you by FX V-room and Forexpros. Click here to join free. --- Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims. This is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 440.00K. --- Euro Dollar The Euro continued to rise from last week's low, Friday's low, and the 10-month low 1.3266, reaching a new top for this correction at 1.3535, from which it dropped strongly for more than 150 pips. The collapse which happened late last week is completely expected, not only that, but we believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a strong and massive medium term drop which has already started! We will not be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on the contrary, we look forward with eager to that. But after dropping from 1.38 to 1.32 in a few days, a rising correction is normal & logical thing and holds no surprises. Thus, we should focus of the projected targets for this correction, the most important of which is the Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 1.3606. Adding importance to this level is the fact that the long term descending trend line is getting closer and closer to it. As for the short term, we see resistance at 1.3441, and if broken, we will continue to correct the last wave down from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3541 & the level with continuous rise in its importance 1.3606. As for the support it is at 1.3369 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop from yesterday's top 1.3535. We do expect large targets to be met for the short term, such as 1.3283 & 1.3190. Support: * 1.3369: the bottom of the rising trend line from 1.3266 on hourly charts. * 1.3283: Thursday's low. * 1.3190: Apr 30th low. Resistance: * 1.3441: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from yesterday's top. * 1.3541: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816. * 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816. --- USD/JPY Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterday's report 92.68, and successfully reached the first suggested target 93.20, in a move in the same direction of the technical outlook which followed the break of the falling trend line on the daily chart, which we have talked about several times recently. Before reaching 93, the technical outlook was positive, and after reaching 93, the technical outlook is still positive. But, as we approach the important top 93.75, we recommend caution of a possible drop. Since it is pretty important, we will take 93.75 to be our "resistance of the day", and we do not expect this "correctionless" rise to continue unless it is broken. But if it does, the price will jump above 94 for the first time since August, targeting 94.35 and may get a taste of 95 as it targets 95.05. As for the support it is at 93.00, and breaking it would mean that the price has settled for a top at 93.58, for the time being at least, and that we will now correct the big rise we just saw. Support: * 93.00: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. * 92.13: Feb 19th low. * 91.49: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 88.12. Resistance: * 93.75: Jan 8th high. * 94.35: Aug 4th low. * 95.05: Aug 24th high. --- Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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