OctaFX_Farid Posted August 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Gold recovers from 2-month low FXStreet (Córdoba) - The yellow metal recovered some ground Tuesday and climbed back to the $1,290/oz area as the greenback eases across the board following a sharp rally inspired by not-so-dovish Yellen remarks in Jackson Hole. Gold prices edged higher but remained near 2-month lows as a firm dollar and better risk appetite continue to weigh on the metal. Gold for December delivery was up $9.10 or 0.70% at $1,288 an ounce, having hit a daily high of $1,292 in recent dealings. Prices hit a 2-month low near $1,273 on Aug 21 amid speculation of an eventual US rate hike. As for silver, the gray metal also edged higher, hitting a daily peak of $19.55 before easing slightly. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD consolidates near 1.0970 FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The greenback is range-bounding vs. the Canadian dollar on Tuesday, with the USD/CAD meandering in a narrow range between 1.0960 and 1.0975 so far. USD/CAD focus on US docket Spot is probing the lower band of the intraday range around 1.0960, as the risk-on trade seems to be creeping back to the markets in the first half of the week. Ahead in the day, US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence and house prices gauged by the S&P/Case-Shiller index will take centre stage. “Corporate sellers ahead of the 1.10 and option expiries mid week at 1.10 (reportedly) may be restraining the topside for USDCAD and funds is getting off to a sluggish start here after the test of 1.10 overnight. But there is still keen interest to buy USDCAD from the real money sector and we look for limited weakness near term – solid support should emerge on dips to the low/mid 1.09s. We target a move to the low 1.11s near-term”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities. USD/CAD levels to watch At the moment the pair is losing 0.19% at 1.0963 with the next support at 1.0927 (21-d MA) ahead of 1.0899 (high Aug.18) and finally 1.0883 (200-d MA). On the upside, a breakout of 1.0998 (high Aug.26) would open the door to 1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1026 (61.8% of 1.1279-1.0616). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY tests 104.00 but rejected again FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar jumped to test the 104.00 level against the Japanese Yen but the pair got a new rejection and now it is trading back to 103.85. Pair was affected by US durable goods orders that rose 22.6% in July; However the data was distorted by large orders in airplanes. Ex-transportation fell 0.8%. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 103.92, down 0.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 104.13 and low at 103.75. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bullish. USD/JPY levels There are option expiries at New York's cut around 103.00 ($430 mln) and 103.25 ($200 mln). If the pair managers to break above 104.00, next resistances are at 104.10, 104.25 and 104.45. On the downside, supports are at 103.75, 103.50 and 103.40. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD indifferent after US docket FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD remains in the negative camp following the release of the US Durable Goods Orders, with the USD/CAD hovering over 1.0965/60. USD/CAD softer-to-consolidative Spot is now extending the range-bound pattern around the 1.0960/70 band, after US headline Durable Goods Orders jump 22.6% during the month of July, crushing previous estimates; excluding the Transportation sector, orders contracting at a monthly pace of 0.8%. “We have seen a push higher towards the 1.1000 area in Asia but for now the level has held and has failed to break. There is still talk of barrier defence up there, so a clean break through there should induce further Usd buying. To the downside we would expect to see good support on any pull back towards yesterday’s lows ie around 1.0940/1.0950”, noted Stephen Gallo, European Head, FX Strategy at BMO. USD/CAD levels to watch At the moment the pair is losing 0.23% at 1.0960 with the next support at 1.0927 (21-d MA) ahead of 1.0899 (high Aug.18) and finally 1.0883 (200-d MA). On the upside, a breakout of 1.0998 (high Aug.26) would open the door to 1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1026 (61.8% of 1.1279-1.0616). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Consumer Confidence registered at 92.4 above expectations (89) in August Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 USD/JPY points to 105.40 medium term – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the pair heading towards 105.40 in the medium term. Key Quotes “In the major FX-crosses, the DXY index is pausing after the strong rally last week”. “The EUR will continue to underperform given expectations of ECB easing and the risk that TLTRO will ‘crowd out’ foreign buying of periphery bonds”. “We see the JPY and CHF as vulnerable on likely future monetary easing”. “Technically, USD-JPY may consolidate after the failure to break through important trend-line resistance. Medium-term charts point to 105.40 and 110.10, in line with our fundamental view”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/CHF remains below 1.2100 – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The cross keeps the trade below the 1.2100 handle, leaving the door open for further pullbacks, suggested Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “EUR/CHF trades in multi-year lows and has so far dropped to an August low at 1.2072, a slip through which will have the late December 2012 low at 1.2064 in its sights”. “Below it lies the November 2012 low at 1.2030 which is expected to hold”. “If not, the major psychological 1.2000 mark could be revisited”. “Minor resistance comes in around the previous August low at 1.2087. Further resistance can be found at 1.2122/33. It is where the mid-March and July lows were made”. “While trading below there, immediate downside pressure will exist”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD retreats from highs FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The bullish attempt in the single currency is now taking a breather, with the EUR/USD easing to the 1.3180 area after hitting highs near 1.3190. EUR/USD firmer on risk sentiment The risk aversion seems to be stepping back on Wednesday, allowing the current rebound from overnight lows around 1.3150. There are no data releases in the euro area and in the US today, leaving spot to the mercy of the risk appetite trends. “EURUSD’s weak performance last week confirms the bearish outlook for the single currency in the near-to-medium term. Having broke consolidation support at 1.3335 (bear wedge on the daily chart, above), we expect EURUSD to stage a repeat of the 1.3697/1.3335 move down from the breakdown point (targets a fall to the high 1.29s)”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment the pair is up 0.11% at 1.3182 with the next hurdle at 1.3221 (high Aug.25) ahead of 1.3297 (high Aug.22) and then 1.3324 (high Aug.20). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) would aim for 1.3089 (low Jul.19) and finally 1.3051 (low Jul.16 2013). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/GBP doors open for 0.7935 – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The recent price action in the cross would allow a test of the 0.7935 level, suggested Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “EUR/GBP still slides along the 55 day moving average at .7962, having fallen through the and the two month uptrend line at .7975”. “Failure at yesterday’s .7953 low will push the .7935 August 13 low to the fore”. “We still expect EUR/GBP to remain below the .8033/36 resistance zone, made up of the late June and current August highs”. “A break above the .8033/36 area would introduce scope to challenge the .8074/82 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-July decline and May low”. “Such a rally should fail ahead of the .8136/59 50% retracement, February low and late May high at the very latest”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Session Recap: USD backs away from multi-month highs FXStreet (Córdoba) - With no clear drivers during the European session, the USD weakened somewhat and pulled back from multi-month highs versus the euro and the yen, while commodity currencies continued to outperform. The EUR/USD rebounded from a fresh almost 1-year low of 1.3152 and reached the 1.3180 zone, while the GBP/USD also recovered but stays below 1.6600. The USD/JPY consolidates just below the 104.00 mark. As for commodity currencies, the USD/CAD has dropped more than a full cent after being rejected by the 1.1000 area the previous day. The NZD/USD recovered from a 6-month low and climbed to a high of 0.8378 while the AUD/USD remains firm near 0.9350, with buyers appearing in every dip to 0.9300. "Despite the minor dollar setback today, the uptrend remains intact", says the BBH analyst team. "There still is a strong bias toward buying dollar dips". European stocks were little changed after a sharp 2-day rally and following a record close above 2000 in the S&P 500 yesterday. There is no first-tier data scheduled for the Eurozone or the US until tomorrow. Main Headlines in Europe: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey came in at 8.6 below forecasts (9) in September EUR/USD on its way to 1.3000? – Commerzbank Italy Consumer Confidence below forecasts (104) in August: Actual (101.9) European stocks little changed after steep gains Month-end flows behind USD sales IMF’s Lagarde under formal investigation for negligence in French political fraud case Risk-on sentiment pushes higher – Danske Bank OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 EUR poised for further downside - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, sees the single currency heading towards lower levels. Key Quotes "The foreign exchange market is relatively quiet this morning with narrow trading ranges evident in most currency pairs. The S&P 500 closed above the 2,000 for the first time on record while 10-year US Treasury bond yields declined further." "It seems pretty clear that until there is something to question the building belief of further ECB easing, the euro is set to gradually grind lower. There are no real obvious events to question that growing belief perhaps through until the ECB monetary policy meeting next week and hence the negative sentiment is set to continue." "The data calendar is very quiet today but what has just come out is consistent with this growing belief of additional ECB monetary easing. The German import price data for July has just revealed the annual rate fell to -1.7% from -1.4% in June." "Admittedly through the ECB should become less concerned over the deflationary impetus from import prices given the movement of the euro. Remember, the ECB believes that for every 10% change in the EUR TWI there is an equivalent 0.4-0.5ppt change in the annual inflation rate." "The ECB Daily Nominal EER-20 index is currently down around 3.6% from its peak earlier this year – so the exchange rate is going in the right direction for alleviating the deflationary impetus through imported prices. Still, the TWI needs to move considerably more to have a meaningful impact." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Potential for JPY weakness in the medium term - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, remarks the probability of further downside for the Japanese currency. Key Quotes "The period after the release of Q2 GDP data was always going to be the testing time in Japan on whether the next sales tax increase from 8% to 10%, due in October 2015, should be implemented. Etsuro Honda, advisor to PM Abe now says the increase is risky." "Earlier this year Honda stated that the second increase was possible if real GDP growth was over 3.0% in Q3. This debate could intensify over the coming months and any sense of a delay (rather than abandonment) would be equity supportive and yen negative." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/CHF hits fresh 20-month low FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/CHF pushed lower and broke below the 1.2070 support area to hit its lowest since December 2012 in recent dealings. The EUR/CHF has been under increasing pressure this month, having lost more than 100 pips so far, which is outstanding for a cross that moves very little ever since the SNB placed a floor back in September 2011. At time of writing, the EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2063, down 0.14% on the day, having printed a low of 1.2058 so far. “There has been talk the last several sessions that the SNB has placed bids at 1.2060 to provide a little cushion for the 1.20 CHF cap. Well that line in the sand looks like it is about to get its first test”, said Jamie Coleman, analyst at FXBeat. “Perhaps a small punt to the long side with a very tight stop and a modest t/p, say 1.2080/85 might be worthwhile. Don't expect much in the way of fireworks” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD dips below 1.0900 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD lost more than 100 pips over the last session after being rejected from the 1.1000 resistance area and amid month-end dollar selling flows. The loonie is among the best performers Wednesday, having briefly dropped below 1.0900 to hit an 8-day low of 1.0888 before finding support. The USD/CAD has managed to trim some of its recent losses and it is currently trading at the 1.0895 area, still 0.46% below its opening price. USD/CAD technical levels In terms of technical levels, a decisive break below 1.0888/81 (Aug 27 low/200-day SMA), could open the way toward 1.0862/59 (100-day SMA/Aug 15 low) and 1.0820 (Jul 25 high). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.1000 (Aug 26 high) and 1.1022 (61.8% Fibo of 1.1277-1.0619). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at -2.07M, below expectations (1.1M) in August 22 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at -2.07M, below expectations (1.1M) in August 22 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After a promising start of the session climbing to fresh weekly highs around 1.3220, the EUR/USD has rapidly deflated to test intraday lows near 1.3170 so far. In the view of Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, “EUR/USD has so far slipped to an August low at 1.3153 while en route to the 1.3105 September low and the psychological 1.3000 region. Today it is expected to recover, though”. In addition, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank Emmanuel Ng commented, “Note that the pair managed to regain its footing somewhat on Thursday on the back of wire reports indicating no further initiatives from the ECB next week but we expect sentiment to remain fragile in the intervening period with key event risks expected from German CPI numbers today and EZ CPI reading tomorrow. In the interim, we stay the course with a heavy EUR-USD stance with the next visible support expected at 1.3150 if the foothold at 1.3200 is lost”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 EUR, GBPNand the chance of a bounce - Societe Generale FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, sees the likelihood of a rebound in both GBP and the EUR. Key Quotes "The conditions, therefore, are ripe for a euro short-covering bounce. The speculative market is short; EUR/USD has been falling despite tightening peripheral spreads, and looks too low in the short-term on regressions of spreads and rate differentials." "Month-end FX reserve re-balancing is also a possible trigger for a bounce. Indeed, there's even talk of SNB euro buying at these levels of EUR/CHF." "And finally, as a potential catalyst, there's a chance of positive economic news from German unemployment and Euro area money supply today. All in all, reason enough to think a bounce is possible. Only a correction through 1.340 would break the current downtrend and excite technicians, and the more modest the bounce, the worse the technical outlook." "The lack of fresh news also opens up the possibility of GBP/USD bouncing a bit further today, with CBI distributive trends the only data of note. As observed yesterday, GBP weakness has been more about long positions being cut than shorts being built, and this too argues for a modest bounce." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Further easing by ECB next week, a close call? – BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, says inflation figures in EMU and Germany could be relevant in next week's ECB meeting. Key Quotes "The euro has rebounded back above the 1.3200 level after Reuters yesterday quoted ECB sources as stating that there would be no monetary easing steps announced at next week’s policy meeting. With euro short positioning becoming more substantial, unsubstantiated stories of this kind can have the necessary impact on stabilising the currency." "In reality, if any decision is finely balanced, the flash estimates for August inflation from Germany today and the euro-zone tomorrow may well have a bearing on any decision taken next week. After ECB President Draghi’s comment at Jackson Hole that inflation expectations have become unanchored, the ECB will be sensitive to any further evidence of downside inflation risks worsening." "The German EU harmonised annual inflation rate is expected to come in unchanged at 0.8% in August – any undershoot will just serve to intensify speculation of easing next week. Both a small rate cut and/or the start of ABS QE are possibilities for next week and we would lean toward ABS QE as being the more likely of the two, simply because it is one of the measures that was announced in June, is already being worked on and looks like less of a panic move. Draghi believes in the June measures and therefore full implementation is the natural conclusion." "We should also perhaps be careful not to overplay the inflation expectations comments from Jackson Hole. It was very significant but how reliable are financial market indicators during the month of August, during holiday thin trading conditions? It would appear very rash for the ECB to undergo additional monetary easing based just on falling inflation expectations during August." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 2.2%, above forecasts (2%) in 2Q Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US: GDP (Q2) expanded 4.2% YoY FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that the US economy expanded at an annual pace of 4.2% during the second quarter, exceeding forecasts for an expansion of 3.9% and reverting the previous 2.1% contraction. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD consolidates 0.9340 bounce FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie is consolidating levels versus the US Dollar as the pair found support at 0.9340 after a 35-pip decline from 0.9375. Then the AUD/USD bounced to 0.9360 where the pair remains trading now. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9355, up 0.20% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9376 and low at 0.9332. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is also neutral. AUD/USD sentiment If the pair continues to advance, it will face resistances at 0.9375, 0.9415 and 0.9450. On the downside, 0.9350, 0.9340 and 0.9330. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY): -0.3% (July) vs previous 1.1% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Greece Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 3.8% in June from previous -3.8% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.2%) in August Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.2%) in August Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD uninspired by Eurozone CPI FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD received a slight boost and reached marginal new highs for the day after preliminary data showed Eurozone consumer inflation grew in line with expectations in August. Eurozone consumer price index rose 0.3% YoY in August, meeting expectations, while the core index grew 0.9% versus an increase of 0.8% forecasted by analysts. Today's release was attracting much attention ahead of ECB meeting next week, after Draghi signaled further easing measures at Jackson Hole. However, in-line-with expectations data doesn't really shed too much light on ECB's next move and will probably keep the euro under pressure heading into the decision. The EUR/USD climbed a few pips and hit a high of 1.3194 right after the release, extending a recovery from a low of 1.3159 scored at the beginning of the European session. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3185, virtually unchanged on the day. EUR/USD technical levels As for technical levels, the EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.3152 (2014 low Aug 27), 1.3104 (Sep 6 2013 low) and 1.3100 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.3238 (Aug 22 closing price) and the 1.3295/1.3300 area (Aug 22 high/psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 EUR/JPY rises briefly above 137.00 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY spiked to fresh daily highs above 137.00 after the release of in line with expectations Eurozone inflation data. Eurozone consumer price index rose 0.3% YoY in August, meeting expectations, while the core index grew 0.9% versus an increase of 0.8% forecasted by analysts. The EUR/JPY rose briefly above the 137 mark and stretched to a high of 137.07 right after the data, only to dip back to the 137.85 area soon after. The pair is currently trading at 136.90, 0.35% above its opening price. From a broader perspective, the EUR/JPY has moving with a bearish bias since peaking at 143.79 in early March. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Economic growth in Euroland hurt by Russia - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) -Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, underlines the problems for the euro zone economy stemming from the geopolitical situation in Russia-Ukraine. Key Quotes "National inflation data yesterday revealed an unchanged annual CPI rate of 0.8% and hence there’s a chance that the euro-zone flash estimate today also comes in unchanged at 0.4%. Some of the other country data declined however (Spain and Italy expected to today) and hence we might still get a modest decline to 0.3%." "To be honest though, the grim macro story and the comments from Draghi make this less important. With more sanctions also now on the way for Russia, the economic hit to the euro-zone is only going to get worse." "The latest evidence of that was the German retail sales report this morning. In contrast to the expected unchanged estimate, retail sales plunged 1.4% and clearly consumers as well as businesses in Germany are hurting." "GfK Consumer Confidence data on Wednesday from Germany revealed the largest drop in economic expectations since the 1980s. So the gravity of situation has gone a bit beyond whether we get a 0.3% or 0.4% print in the flash CPI estimate today." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EMU: CPI (Aug.) at 0.3% YoY Consumer Prices in the euro area rose 0.3% YoY, matching previous estimates and down from July’s 0.4%. Core prices advanced 0.9% over the last twelve months, exceeding the 0.8% forecasted. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY toying with 104.00 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback seems to have resumed its upside on Friday, now lifting the USD/JPY to the very doorsteps of the critical barrier at 104.00. USD/JPY looks to regain weekly tops The pair is trading on a firmer footing and prolonging the bounce off the 103.70 area. The overall weaker tone from the Japanese docket in today’s early hours weighed on the yen, adding to the upside sentiment in the pair. Next of relevance will be the US inflation figures tracked by the PCE along with Private Income/Spending and the final reading of the Reuters/Michigan index for the month of August. Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, commented, “the JPY may continue to garner support pending geopolitical developments into the weekend. As such, the pair may continue to loiter at sub-104 levels in the interim with a fairly solid cushion expected towards 103.00”. USD/JPY levels to consider At the moment the pair is up 0.23% at 103.96 and a surpass of 104.16 (high Aug.27) would open the door to 104.49 (high Aug.25) and finally 104.84 (high Jan.23). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 103.66 (low Aug.29) followed by 103.56 (low Aug.28) and then 103.51 (Tenkan Sen). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD back below 1.6600 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD trades effectively unchanged on the day following another failed attempt to break above the 1.6610 resistance area. The latest string of US data had little impact on the USD, confining the Cable to extend its consolidation phase below 1.6600. US personal income and spending came slightly below expectations at 0.2% and -0.1% respectively in July, while core PCE was unchanged at 1.5% y/y. Ahead of the long weekend in the US, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6585 area, flat on the day, but still on track for a mild weekly gain following 7 weeks of losses. GBP/USD technical levels As for technical levels, the GBP/USD could find immediate supports at 1.6535 (Aug 27 low), 1.6509 (Mar 26 low) and 1.6500 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.6612 (Aug 28 high), 1.6670 (Aug 20 high) and 1.6685 (200-day SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted August 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Wall Street closed: S&P 500, best August performance since 2000 FXStreet (Guatemala) - In the US, stocks picked up on best monthly gains since the start of the year as investors were encouraged by improving developments in the US economy. Consumer confidence improved in the month of August with the public likely encouraged by improvements in the labour market. Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index beat expectations and improved on the last print as well, printing 82.5 vs 80.1 consensus and 81.8 previous for July. Core PCE came in line with expectations at 1.5% for July month on month. The S&P 500 Index scored 3.8 percent this month, the best August performance since 2000. For today, it put 0.3 percent of gains and read 2,003.37 as of 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 18.88 points to read 17,098.45 and the The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.5 percent to read 4,580.27. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Session recap: EUR falls through key 1.3150 level FXStreet (Guatemala) - The Euro finally gave up the 1.3150 barrier after the London fix and month end flows were wrapped up. US stocks and the dollar got a lift from a decent and positive end of the month set of data. Consumer confidence improved in the month of August with the public likely encouraged by improvements in the labour market. Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index beat expectations and improved on last print as well, printing 82.5 vs 80.1 consensus and 81.8 previous for July. Core PCE came in line with expectations at 1.5% for July month on month. EUR/USD had been offered from 1.3180 and bears jumped on top which pushed the pair through the 1.3150 barrier at the end of the week and leaves us wondering when this train is going to stop. There are talks of there being further barrier option interest at 1.3125 and then 1.31 the figure. GBP/USD was volatile at month end as the pair lost it’s footing after the European spike onto the 1.66 handle, and dropped all the way back to test territory at 1.6565. This was short lived as bulls took over and made sure of a close back on the 1.66 handle. USD/CAD followed through on the bid on the initial move away from the end of the week lows. Canada printed a very healthy GDP result but the greenback was relentless into the closing hours with end of month flows executed. Key events: Chicago PMI improved to 64.3 from 52.6 Canadian GDP Q2 3.1% vs median forecast of 2.7% US core PCE as expected at 1.5% y/y Reuters/ Michigan consumer sentiment beats expectations at 82.5 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates South Africa Private Sector Credit climbed from previous 8.69% to 9.77% in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 Chinese economy still in expansionary camp – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, assessed the recent release in the Chinese economy. Key Quotes “China’s official manufacturing PMI released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in August declined to 51.1 (consensus: 51.2, DBM: 51.2) from 51.7 in July broadly in line with expectations. The HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI released in its final version this morning declined to 50.2 (revised down from 50.3) from 51.7 in July. For both manufacturing PMIs this is the lowest level since May”. “The details in the NBS manufacturing PMI were relatively weak. New orders declined to 53.2 from 54.2, while export orders declined slightly to 50.0 from 50.8 in July”. “The finished goods inventory component in the NBS manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 48.1 from 47.6 and hence the new order-inventory-balance deteriorated slightly in August. However, in both manufacturing PMIs the deterioration in the new order-inventory-balance has been modest and the level remains relatively healthy”. “Today’s NBS manufacturing PMI confirms that the Chinese economy again has lost some momentum and the manufacturing PMI appears to have peaked unless monetary policy and fiscal policy are eased substantially soon”. “In our view there are three possible explanations for the recent weakness: 1) continued weakness in the property market, 2) the impact from fiscal stimulus has started to wane with infrastructure spending showing signs of slowing in July and 3) the accelerated corruption campaign in recent months could have started to weigh on investment demand”. “The manufacturing PMI is expected to continue to decline slightly in the coming months. If the manufacturing PMIs move below 50 in the coming months, an interest rate cut can no longer be ruled out, even though the Chinese government has been reluctant to use monetary stimulus and has preferred fiscal stimulus instead”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EMU: Manufacturing PMI (Aug) at 50.7 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The manufacturing gauge of the PMI for the euro area remains in expansionary territory during August, despite coming down to 50.7 vs. 50.8 forecasted and July’s 51.8. The German measure followed suit, down to 51.4 from 52.4. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Gold consolidates below $1,290 FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold spot started the week on a quiet note after printing a weekly gain and a slight monthly advance in August, although the rise stalled around $1,290 during the European trade. XAU/USD rose around $5.00 an ounce and reached a daily high just above $1,290 but pulled back afterwards and it is currently trading around $1,288 slightly above its opening price. Soft economic data around the globe and ongoing geopolitical tensions have kept the metal on demand, although moves have been timid as investors are taking a more cautious stance. Today liquidity will probably remain low as US markets are closed due to the Labor Day holiday. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is meandering around a narrow range at the beginning of the week, keeping the trade near 1-year lows. “EUR/USD has stabilised but the downtrend remains firmly intact. We expect EUR/USD to range trade and possibly bounce around the ECB meeting but any bounce should be short-lived. We target EUR/USD to reach 1.30 in 1M and 1.27 in 3M”, observed Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank. Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, commented, “Resistance comes in along the downtrend channel resistance line at 1.3177and the 1.3222 August 28 high as well as at 1.3333/36. Further resistance can be seen along the three month downtrend line at 1.3376. While trading below here, downside pressure should be maintained”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD drifting to 0.9340 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now coming down from intraday peaks near 0.9350, taking the AUD/USD to the 0.9340/35 band. AUD/USD capped by 0.9370 The RBA will hold its monetary policy meeting tomorrow, although market consensus expects the central bank to leave the refi rate unchanged at 2.5% and repeat the neutral tone from last meetings. According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, “we think the market preference for carry may remain in force with leveraged net AUD longs in the latest week growing in the latest week. Ahead of the RBA tomorrow, expect the pair to be negatively buoyant within 0.9270-0.9370”. AUD/USD levels to watch At the moment the pair is up 0.01% at 0.9340 with the next resistance at 0.9376 (high Aug.6) followed by the psychological level at 0.9400. On the downside, a break below 0.9300 (low Aug.27) would expose 0.9272 (low Aug.26) and then 0.9235 (low Aug.21). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 EUR rebound not ruled out - Societe Generale FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, contemplates the likelihood of a rebound in the EUR in the near term. Key Quotes "The foreign exchange market is doing its absolute best to ignore mounting geo-political tension as the Ukraine crisis deepens. Instead, positioning data (for last Tuesday) point to the two dominant themes - a bearish consensus about the outlook for the Euro and a yield-hungry bias more widely." "EUR non-commercial short on the CFTC are at their highest level since soon after Mr Draghi's ‘whatever it takes' speech two years ago. Clearly, the market is in danger of disappointment if the ECB meeting on Thursday fails to deliver more than dovish rhetoric and promises of action." "Yet, the failure to stage any kind of month-end bounce on Friday as the Ukraine crisis deepened, leaves a challenging technical picture. And economic, monetary policy dovergence point to a huge amount of potential EUR/USD downside as this interest rate cycle finally gets going. It's set up to be choppy, and the risk of a Thursday bounce is very high, but irrespective of the consensual nature and the precedent from 2012, we want to be short when the NFP data are released on Friday." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD holds onto gains FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD has been one of the main movers in a quiet September kick-off, as investors await key events later this week and with the US out for the Labor Day. The GBP/USD picked up momentum and managed to break above the 1.6610 resistance area, climbing to a high of 1.6643 before finding resistance. However with the subsequent dip contained by the former resistance area at 1.6610, the Cable was confined to a sideways phase. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.6620, up 0.16% on the day. GBP/USD technical outlook “The hourly chart presents a technical bullish stance, with indicators heading north above their midlines, and 20 SMA gaining upward slope below current price”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “The 4 hours chart shows also a positive technical tone, yet some steady gains above mentioned 1.6630 level are required to confirm further advances, eyeing then a test of the 1.6670 price zone”. Bednarik locates next support levels at 1.6600, 1.6570 and 1.6540, while she sees resistances at 1.6630, 1.6665 and 1.6700. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 European Monetary Union Producer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (-1.1%) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD on its way to 1.3100? FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness is now intensifying around the EUR, pushing the EUR/USD to test the lower band of the intraday range near 1.3110. EUR/USD in multi-month lows Spot rapidly faded the spike to the area of 1.3140 in early trade, retracing to levels last seen a year ago in the proximity of the psychological support at 1.3100. There are no relevant data releases in the euro region today so traders will concentrate their attention in the US ISM and manufacturing PMI by Markit. Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, commented, “bearish momentum indicators are softening with the RSI having stabilized just below 30.The bearish DMI is also moderating, and we note the formation of two consecutive doji candles highlighting uncertainty”. EUR/USD relevant levels The pair is now losing 0.09% at 1.3115 with the next resistance at 1.3196 (high Aug.29) ahead of 1.32222 (high Aug.28) and then 1.3297 (high Aug.22). On the downside, a break below 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) would expose 1.3089 (low Ju.19 2013) and finally 1.3051 (low Jul.16 2013). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD breaks support, hits 5-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD extended its trip lower and having broken below the 1.6535 support area, it stretched to its lowest level since March. Even though the GBP/USD attempted to stage a corrective bounce from the 1.6550 zone post-UK PMI data, it was capped by 1.6580 and came under renewed pressure, falling much deeper and turning into the worst performer in the FX market. The Cable broke below several supports and stretched to a low of 1.6516, last seen Mar 26. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.6520, down 0.51% on the day. The GBP/USD is retreating after 4 consecutive days of gains, after being rejected from the 1.6645 area yesterday’s European session. GBP/USD technical levels Immediate support is now seen at 1.6508 (Mar 26 low) and the 1.6500 psychological level. On the other hand, resistances could be found at 1.6580 (intraday level/200-hour SMA), 1.6612 (Aug 27 & 28 highs) and 1.6645 (Sep 1 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates XAU/USD eyeing 1 year triangle support again - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Laith Marmarchi, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, points out that XAU/USD is eyeing 1 year triangle support again. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is extending its selling mood on Tuesday, putting the key 1.3100 support to the test ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. “EUR/USD is expected to stabilise around the 1.3105 September 2013 low before reaching the psychological 1.3000 region. On the hourly and daily charts we can see positive divergence which, together with the loss of downside momentum over the past few days, increases the chances of a minor bounce towards the 1.3200 region being seen”, noted Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank. In addition, Thomas Harr, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, commented,”We expect EUR/USD to fall near term on policy divergence and portfolio flows. Market speculation of further ECB easing will resurface in coming months on very low CPI and weak growth. Meanwhile, we expect the market to move forward its Fed rate hike expectations. Monetary divergence will continue to support the USD”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 2, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 EUR/USD remains heavy - Investec FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, notes the ongoing strength in the USD. Key Quotes "USDJPY broke higher after trading through decent resistance around 104.00-20 as investors ready for the post Summer moves, while the Australian Dollar weakened on a widening Current account deficit leading many other US Dollar crosses to follow suit". "The USDJPY rally may bring fresh cross-Yen buying to the market that will help support the Euro and Pound in the short term but certainly we expect the Euro to remain heavy into Thursday's ECB meeting with the outside chance of a rate cut remaining a possibility". "The Pound meanwhile will need to get through the next two PMI releases before the market may be tempted to buy some Pounds before Thursday's MPC meeting." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 3, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2014 Chinese, US data boosting risk sentiment – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Recent releases in the Chinese economy and the US gave extra wings to the risk appetite today. Key Quotes “Chinese service PMIs released this morning showed a rebound in sentiment”. “China’s official non-manufacturing PMI rose from 54.2 in July to 54.4 in August and HSBC’s service PMI rose to 54.1 in August from 50.0 in July”. “The combination of strong US data together with a rebound in Chinese service PMIs has boosted sentiment on Asian bourses and most regional indices trade higher this morning”. “In addition, risk appetite is supported by speculations that Japan prime minister Abe will soon appoint a policy maker to head the health ministry (which is in charge of the Government Pension Investment Fund, GPIF), who may introduce new pension reforms forcing GPIF to shift away from Japanese government bonds towards more risky assets”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Deflationary risks in the euro bloc looming – Rabobank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, assessed the last figures from the inflation figures in Euroland and compares them with the Japanese case. Key Quotes “Over the past year or so the strong disinflationary trend of the Eurozone has resulted in numerous comparisons over whether the region could be headed towards Japanese style deflation”. “While the BoJ may currently be able to claim some success in pushing higher inflation expectations, the ECB cannot. ECB President Draghi last week emphasised that there had been a “significant decline at all horizon” in inflation expectations and it was this that drew the pledge to use “all the available instruments needed” to ensure price stability”. “The BoJ sees a rise in inflation expectations as being pivotal in breaking out of the deflationary loop. On this point, it is clear that the ECB is agreed”. “Insofar as there is a causal link between CPI inflation and inflation expectations, how low Eurozone CPI inflation falls is likely to have a strong bearing on determining how far the ECB will go in provide fresh policy incentives”. “A Reuters surveys suggests that economists are of the view that the ECB may have embarked in QE by March next year. Continued weak EZ CPI readings will likely ensure further interim policy announcements”. “We expect the EUR to remain under pressure, though with further stimulus from the BoJ still possible we would prefer to sell the EUR vs. the USD rather than the JPY”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD up and down on Ukrainian news - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik comments on today's EUR/USD moves, with risk once on and then off again and then back on due to the contradicting news coming from different sources on the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire deal. Key quotes "Early news of a permanent ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia triggering a relief rally among high yielders and pushing EUR/USD up to 1.3550." "But the news was denied around 30 minutes later, as Putin spokesman denied the cease fire, but a few minutes afterwards it said that Russian President does back the idea of a immediate ceasefire in Ukraine." "The EUR/USD retraced down to current 1.3140 area, measly 20 pips above pre news levels, with the hourly chart showing price struggling around a bearish 20 SMA and momentum crossing its midline to the upside." "Chances of a stronger upward move seem limited with all the back and forth in the geopolitical news, and ahead of ECB economic policy decision on Thursday, yet an upward acceleration above mentioned daily high could see price approaching the 1.3190/1.3200 price zone." "On the other hand, the downside remains protected by the static support at 1.3105, September 2013 monthly low, and it will take a clear break below it to see a bearish extension towards 1.3050/60 price zone. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Gold recovers from 11-week lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold recovered from 11-week lows Wednesday and it is trading nearly flat on the day amid contradictory headlines about an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The yellow metal saw a quick drop toward a fresh 11-week low near $1,261 as investors dumped the safe-haven in a bout of risk appetite. However, with Moscow downplaying the truce, the price climbed back to opening levels. At time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1,267/oz, little changed on the day. On Tuesday, greenback's strength outweighed any safe-haven appeal and pushed gold prices toward their biggest fall in nearly 3 months. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY clinches to 105.00 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing the grip vs. the Japanese currency on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY now coming down to the 105.00 region from above 105.30. USD/JPY points to fresh year highs above 105.40 Spot remains bid despite today’s correction, recently boosted by changes in Abe’s cabinet. The pair seems to be taking a breather on its way to test ytd peaks just above the 105.40 level against the backdrop of the USD rally. “The anticipated USD strength is much, much stronger than expected. Upward momentum remains strong and the current rally is expected to extend towards the year-to-date high of 105.40/45; 104.85 is acting as a strong intraday support”, observed Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group. USD/JPY levels to watch At the moment the pair is losing 0.02% at 105.07 and a breakdown of 104.41 (Tenkan Sen) would expose 104.30 (low Sep.2) and finally 104.20 (10-d MA). On the other hand, the immediate hurdle lines up at 105.31 (high Sep.3) ahead of 105.42 (high Jan.10) and then 105.45 (2014 high Jan.1). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 3, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2014 BoC keeps interest rate unchanged at 1% in September FXStreet (Łódź) - In line with forecasts, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% at its September monetary policy meeting. The bank rate remained at 1.25% and the deposit rate at 0.75%. In a statement released after the decision was made known, the BoC said that inflation, currently near the 2% target accelerated due to "energy prices, exchange rate pass-through, and other sector-specific factors rather than to any change in domestic economic fundamentals." Canadian Q2 GDP has strengthened in line with the central bank's predictions, but a sustained expansion needs to be seen "before it will translate into higher business investment and hiring." Due to the fact that "the outlook for inflation remain roughly balanced, while the risks associated with household imbalances have not diminished" the BoC decided that keeping its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% was an appropriate move this month. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2014 GBP/USD marking time ahead of BoE FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD continues to suffer amid fears of Scottish independence as investors await the Bank of England policy decision. However, in the absence of surprises from the BoE, as widely expected, attention will quickly return to the Scottish referendum. Jitters of a yes vote has kept the pound under pressure this week, having lost roughly 2 cents over the last sessions. Goldman Sachs has warned a "yes" vote on September 18, while seemingly unlikely, could have severe consequences for both the Scottish economy and the UK overall. GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.6439 yesterday’s NY session, last seen February 12, and is currently going through a consolidation phase just above that level. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6458, virtually unchanged on the day. GBP/USD levels to watch As for technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.6439 (Sep 3 low), 1.6425 (Feb 12 low) and 1.6400 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances line up at 1.6464 (Sep 4 high), 1.6485 (23.6% Fibo of 1.6643-1.6439) and the 1.6496/1.6500 area (Sep 3 high/psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 302K, above forecasts (300K) in August 29 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates ECB's Draghi: Governing Council decided to buy simple ABS FXStreet (Łódź) - The ECB Governing Council unexpectedly decided to cut rates to new record lows at the September meeting, and during the subsequent press conference Mario Draghi announces also the start of ABS purchases. • ABS purchases will facilitate credit flows to the economy, the ECB head explains. • Details will be announced on October 2. • The new measures will have a sizable impact on the ECB balance sheet. • The measures will support forward guidance on key interest rates. • "If necessary, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/GBP homing in on 0.7900 FXStreet (London) - Following the ECB decision to cut rates to 0.05% from 0.15%, while the BoE held firm at 0.5%, EUR/GBP has declined sharply today, with 0.7900 in focus. ECB trims, BoE holds With the BoE holding policy as expected, the main focus of the day fell on the ECB’s decision to trim rates from 0.15% to 0.05% record lows. In the current press conference, Draghi has commented that the ECB has decided to start ABS purchases aimed at facilitating credit flows to the European economy. The measures are set to start on October 2nd, and will have a sizeable effect on the ECB balance sheet. Further, he added that the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate. EUR/GBP price action Having traded in a tight range overnight, sitting above the daily pivot point at 0.7983. However, with the ECB rate cut, spot dived dramatically from a morning high at 0.7992, to a low at 0.7913. While near term momentum looks to have steadied the decline, the rest of Draghi’s speech and presser will be watched closely to see if 0.7900 will be tested. EUR/GBP Levels Current price is 0.7919, with resistance ahead at 0.7934 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.7940 (Daily Classic S3), 0.7946 (Hourly 100 SMA), 0.7952 (Hourly 200 SMA) and 0.7952 (Daily Classic S2). To the downside we see next support at 0.7914 (Daily Low), 0.7905 (Monthly Low), 0.7905 (Weekly Low), 0.7892 (YTD Low) and 0.7891 (Annual Low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD bounces at 1.6400 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The GBP/USD is performing a bounce from 1.6400 area as the pair is now trading at 1.6430. Earlier, the cable fell 70 pips from 1.6465 to trade at lows since February 11 at 1.6390 amid central banks decision. However the pair found buying interest at this level and now it is attempting to recover above 1.6430. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6431, down 0.18% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6467 and low at 1.6394. GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. GBP/USD levels If the pair continues to recover, next resistance will be 1.6460, 1.6500 and 1.6545. On the downside, 1.6395, 1.6340 and 1.6250 are supports. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2014 USD/JPY retreated from 6-year high before another attack FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY retreated from almost 6-year high at 105.70 seen in Asia; it is trading at 105.24. Another volatile day Today the pair became even closer to 6-year highs, but the stronger than expected Non-Manufacturing ISM was not enough to convince the traders to buy more. Partially the cautious behavior of the market may be attributed to the looming Non-Farm Payrolls report. There are arguments for the employment rise, for instance, in form of strong ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Component. However, there are also some leading indicators pointing to possible weakness of the report. We already know, the ADP reported worse than expected rise in payrolls, ISM Manufacturing Employment Component dropped to 58.1, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average rose to 302k. We may see another volatile day ahead! What are today’s key USD/JPY levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 105.13, with support below at 104.89, 104.51 and 104.26 with resistance above at 105.51, 105.76, and 106.14. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bullish at 104.39 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 103.75. Hourly RSI is bullish at 53. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates SEB: S&P500 unhealthy price action - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - As the eFXnews team point out the SEB sees S&P500's action as unhealthy, with another topside spike added on Thursday. Key quotes "Buyers encounter big difficulties to drive the trend further." "A sustained drop under 1.9888/86 remains an elevated risk - and if so, extension towards 1, 965 should be accounted for." "Current intraday stretches are located at 1,988 & 2,008." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates The ECB finally delivered – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at the Nordic Danske Bank, evaluated yesterday’s announcements by the ECB. Key Quotes “Overall, the measures should support the easing in June, when the ECB introduced a negative deposit rate and announced it would boost liquidity through TLTRO loans”. “At the same time, the ABS purchases will strengthen the effectiveness of the TLTROs as it removes loans from the banks’ balance sheet and hence increases the banks’ lending capacity to the real economy due to capital requirements”. “So far, the size of the ABS and covered bonds purchases is unknown and, according to Mario Draghi, it is difficult to assess the size of the ABS programme as it will include new and existing ABS”. “Draghi stated that the ECB has now reached the lower bound on policy rates”. “The ECB is still unanimous in using unconventional measures should it become necessary to further address risks on inflation”. “The decisions taken by the ECB should underpin anchoring of inflation expectations”. “The ECB still sees expectations as anchored, but it has seen downside risks to inflation increasing and due to that it eased again”. “The market reaction to the rate cut was pronounced as it was not expected with any greater conviction”. “It is noteworthy to see the steepening in the EUR swap curve from the long end as a sign of the market believing the ECB measures will lift growth and inflation expectations. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates European stocks edge lower after ECB shock, NFP eyed FXStreet (Córdoba) - European stocks were little changed Friday, a day after the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets by announcing rate cuts and other measures to support economic growth and fight deflation in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, investors are refraining from taking big positions ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.32% to 347.77, pulling back from a 2-month high. As for country-specific indexes the UK FTSE dropped 0.29%. The Germany’s DAX 30 was up 0.12% while the France’s CAC 40 shed 0.10%. Spain’s Ibex 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were both little changed. On Thursday, the ECB took a step forward and cut all 3 of its main interest rates and announced it will start purchasing non-governmental securities and asset-backed securities (ABS) next month. However, the bank refrained from committing to unlimited sovereign QE. Equities markets received the ECB news with optimism. The Stoxx Europe 600 rallied 1.1% yesterday, closing at its highest level since July 3. Today, Eurozone GDP for the second quarter matched expectations of a 0.7% growth YoY. In the FX market, majors are taking a breather after yesterday’s fireworks. EUR/USD is nearly flat at the 1.2950 area after bottoming at a 14-month low of 1.2919 on the back of ECB expansionary measures. GBP/USD is trading at 1.6320, after hitting 7-month trough of 1.6285 while USD/JPY is also flat at the 105.20 region, having pulled back modestly from a 6-year peak of 105.70. As for commodities, gold recovered a tad after hitting a fresh 3-month low. The metal was 0.2% up at $1,264 an ounce while crude oil rose 0.52% to $94.93 a barrel. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD sedated around 1.2950 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency remains under the effects of yesterday’s ECB announcements, with the EUR/USD meandering around 1.2950/55. EUR/USD focus on Payrolls The pair dropped from the mid-1.3100s to as low as 1.2920 following the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference by President Draghi, leaving the door open for further downside in case today’s Payrolls surprise to the upside. Market consensus expects the US economy to have created 225K in August and the jobless rate to decrease to 6.1% from 6.2%. Data wise in the euro area, the GDP figures showed a flat reading inter-quarter during Q2 and 0.7% on a yearly basis, in line with consensus. “We anticipated that the break of 1.3105 could lead to acceleration lower but the down-move was much deeper than expected. The lack of any significant bounce after touching a low of 1.2933 suggests further downside risk for today (albeit at a slower pace). Expect 1.2980 to cap any short-term recovery for another leg lower towards 1.2890”, signaled Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group. EUR/USD levels to consider The pair is now up 0.09% at 1.2956 with the next resistance at 1.3030 (high Sep.4) followed by 1.3110 (low Sep.2) and then 1.3154 (high Sep.4). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.2920 (low Sep.4) would aim for 1.2788 (61.8% of 1.2042-1.3995) and finally 1.2755 (low Jul.9 2013). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2014 EUR/USD could slump further on positive NFP - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that ahead of the US NFP release EUR/USD is consolidating losses sustained after the ECB monetary policy announcement yesterday, near the 1.2921 low. Key quotes "Today, the market expects the US economy to add 225K and unemployment rate to retrace back to 6.1%." "The dollar may look exhausted in the short term, yet if numbers outcome such expectations, will probably continue advancing: a break through the 1.2920 mentioned low should see a quick slide towards 1.2880 price zone, while if the downward acceleration extends, next target stands at 1.2845." "If the reading however disappoints, market may take the opportunity to profit from recent slide, generating an upward corrective movement: 1.3000 critical figure is the first level to watch, while if above, 1.3050 is next." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2014 USD/CAD consolidating under 1.0900 FXStreet (Córdoba) - After the release of employment data from the United States and Canada, USD/CAD fell to 1.0838 and then rose to 1.0902, in a few minutes. Afterwards move toward the 1.0880/90 area, where it was trading before economic data. During the last hours USD/CAD has remained steady trading below 1.0900, slightly above the price it had a week ago. USD/CAD technical outlook “The short-term charts for USDCAD are getting a little messy which is reflective of the high degree of uncertainty and the tumbling degree of conviction in this market after all the recent swings in spot”, said the Rates, FX and Commodities Research Team from TD Securities. According to them the lack of upside momentum “leaves the process of lower highs in place since the late August rejection of the upper 1.09s. We have no strong views here at the moment and feel the market may continue to range-trade for a few more weeks.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 Japan's August Eco Watchers Survey points to the economy’s fading growth momentum - BNP Paribas FXStreet (Łódź) - Raymond Van Der Putten, economist at BNP Paribas, comments on the poor Japan Economy Watchers Survey results, published today. Key quotes "Today’s Economic Watchers Survey confirms the fading growth momentum in the economy." "In August, the current condition index dropped sharply by 3.9 points to 47.4. This decline is partly related to unfavourable weather (slow moving typhoons that caused heavy rainfall) and rising prices for fuel and materials." "On the other hand, a growing number of respondents noted that the fall in demand after the VAT-hike had been waning." "Today’s survey will increase calls on the BoJ to step up its asset buying programme." "However, we are rather doubtful of such a change in policy." "More asset buying may lead to a further depreciation of the yen and worsening purchasing power." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3% (2Q) vs previous 0.6% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Troika awaiting Cypriot foreclosure law details FXStreet (Łódź) - EU officials informed on Monday that the Troika hasn't received the new Cypriot bill adopted on Saturday, speeding up foreclosures on business loans and mortgages and aimed at making way for the release on the next, 10 billion euro tranche of bailout money. The controversial bill allows financial institutions to seize delinquent borrowers' properties already after two years, and not after 15 years as it is currently established. The EU stressed that the disbursement of aid, which could be approved at the Eurogroup meeting on Friday, couldn't be done without the details of the foreclosure law. The Irish and Greek bailout proceedings are also to be discussed during the Eurogroup meeting. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD could drop sub-1.08 in early 2015 – Rabobank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Jane Foley, Senior Currency Analyst at Rabobank, the pair could slip back to levels below the 1.0800 handle at the beginning of the next year. Key Quotes “Last week Canada’s Q2 GDP report registered a much firmer than expected 3.1% annualised expansion driven by a 17.8% annualised increase in exports”. “In recent years it has been consumption that has been the mainstay of Canadian economic growth. However, with household debt levels having risen to worrying high levels and with the savings rate in decline, it would clearly be to the economy’s advantage if the external sector and investment spending were to take a broader share of the growth burden”. “It is likely that the better tone of recent economic data releases will persuade Governor Poloz to refrain from extremely dovish language. However, there would appear little incentive in him moving away for the neutral outlook on rates”. “The BoC has maintained that the recent upside pressure on inflation is temporary and the CPI inflation did drop back in July. Investment spending is still weak and there are still plenty of clouds over the world economy”. “Also, since its March low vs. the USD the CAD has recovered some ground. We expect USD/CAD to hold close to the 1.09 area for the rest of the year”. “We look for the first BoC rate hike of the cycle at Q3 2015, a little ahead of the Fed (we expect the first Fed hike in Q4 2015) and therefore see risk of a push below USD/CAD1.08 at the start of 2015”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD on its way to 1.6000? – Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Robert Rennie, Analyst at Westpac, notes the likeliness of the sterling to test the 1.6000 level vs. the greenback in the near term. Key Quotes “While there are significant unknowns about the event itself given the structure of the vote (16 year olds but no expats?), potential turnout and the very simple yes/ no question, the recent trend in the polls confirms the outcome will be extremely close”. “However, the weekend poll clearly demonstrates a clear narrowing in views and this now means that this is a critical driver for the £ and financial markets will follow each and every twist closely”. “Given the poll takes place in the same week as the first of the TLTROs and the September FoMC where the Fed is expected to debate 'new language on interest rates' we would expect to see further weakness in the £ and € and strength in the US$”. “Even if, as I hope and expect, a no vote is the final outcome, it's likely that we will see further weakness ahead for the £. With the 1.6280 level broken this morning, the potential for a push down to 1.60 looks possible in the near term”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted September 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2014 EUR/USD treading water around 1.2950 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR managed to bounce off overnight lows near 1.2930, lifting the EUR/USD to the 1.2950/55 band. EUR/USD supported near 1.2930 After dipping to overnight lows near 1.2930 at the beginning of the week, spot managed to rebound and regain the mid-1.2900s so far. Data wise in the euro region, investor’s confidence gauged by the Sentix index unexpectedly dropped to -9.8 for the month of September vs. 2.0 forecasted and August’s 2.7, although the result did not curb the upbeat momentum surrounding the single currency today. “Technically, the $1.3000-50 area needs to be overcome to signal a correction, we suspect, instead of a consolidation phase. On the downside, the next big target is just below $1.28”, noted analysts at BBH. EUR/USD levels to watch As of writing the pair is losing 0.02% at 1.2948 and a breakout of 1.2990 (high Sep.5) would aim for 1.3110 (low Sep.2) and then 1.3154 (high Sep.4). On the flip side, the initial support aligns at 1.2920 (low Sep.4) ahead of 1.2788 (61.8% of 1.2042-1.3995) and finally 1.2755 (low Jul.9 2013). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Market uncertainty grows as poll points to possible Scottish yes vote - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts comment on the possible consequences of a "yes" vote and of a "no" vote in Scotland's independence referendum scheduled for 18 September. Key quotes "The Sunday Times YouGov poll over the weekend became the first major poll to show a majority Yes vote in favour of Scottish independence, with a 51-49 margin excluding undecided votes." "There are still significant uncertainties over the accuracy of polling in this situation that will likely leave significant uncertainty over markets right up through the September 18th referendum." "Market reactions (cable down 1.5%, 2-5y area rallying 6bps, first BoE hike pushed back from Feb15 to May15) confirm our bias that cable is likely to underperform into the referendum, with a Yes vote likely triggering a further 2-3% fall, with a rally in 2s and steepening out the curve, with 10s more uncertain, and the market pushing back the BoE’s first hike by up to 12 months." "In the case of a Yes vote, we would expect GBPUSD to trade in a range of 1.5450-1.5722 in the aftermath while Dec15 short sterling still offers value in the case of a Yes vote, while the nearer contracts are likely in the middle of their potential ranges." "In the case of a No, EURGBP is likely to retrace as low as 0.7950." "UK markets will now likely trade from poll to poll, with the next major poll from TNS BMRB potentially released Tuesday morning." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD stages mild recovery after sharp selloff FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD is staging a mild recovery at the beginning of the American session after a Scottish independence poll sent Cable to its lowest level in over nine months. For the first time, an poll is giving the lead to the ‘yes’ vote in Scotland independence campaign. YouGov poll showed a majority ‘yes’ vote, with a 51-49 margin excluding undecided votes. GBP/USD left a huge bearish gap and extended losses to a low of 1.6102, last seen in November, before finding buyers. The pair has managed to recover some ground over the last hours, with the 1.6175 area capping the upside so far. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6165, recording a 0.95% loss on the day. GBP/USD technical outlook “In the 4 hours chart indicators aim slightly higher in oversold territory, still far from suggesting a stronger upward correction”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “Sellers should surge in case of a recovery above 1.6200, in the 1.6220/1.6250 area, while renewed selling pressure below 1.6110 should open doors for a new leg lower towards 1.6070 price zone”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 08, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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