OctaFX_Farid Posted March 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 US: S&P/Case-Shiller index rose 8.1% YoY in January FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index of house prices posted an annual expansion of 8.1% in the month of January, exceeding expectations at 7.8% and December’s increase of 6.8%. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates European Parliament considers bailing-in large depositors FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The euro dropped in the European afternoon on information from Reuters that the European Parliament would be inclined to bail-in big savers, who hold deposits of over 100,000 euros at distressed banks. MEP Gunnar Hokmark, who is taking part in creating a new law aimed at dealing with such banks told Reuters that: "Deposits below 100,000 euros are protected ... deposits above 100,000 euros are not protected and shall be treated as part of the capital that can be bailed in." Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments on Monday, suggesting that the bailout deal struck between Cyprus and the Troika might be a model for rescue programs for other EU countries in the future, caused the European stock markets to drop sharply in late trading. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2013 Forex: AUD/USD extends its decline from 1.0490 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The positive momentum in the Aussie dollar faltered in the boundaries of 1.0490, sparking then a correction lower to the current levels around 1.0465/70 After today’s Financial Stability Report by the RBA, Senior Economist at NAB S.Papadopoulos commented that the domestic banking sector remains in a strong position, with the housing sector following suit, “with savings still high and little appetite for debt”. “So the currently low cash rate will not be lowered further to appease households, rather the target is businesses. If investment growth in non-mining sectors remains soft, or labour hiring slows (or job shedding increases) then that may lead to further rate cuts”, assessed the expert. At the moment, the cross is down 0.15% at 1.0466 Next support levels align at 1.0408 (MA100d) ahead of 1.0405 (MA10d) and finally 1.0363 (low Mar.21). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.0555 (high Jan.24) would open the door to 1.0560 (hourly high/low Jan.23) and then 1.0578 (high Jan.22). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 27, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2013 Commodities Brief – Precious metals falter, crude surges forward toward 97.00 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Gold prices managed to fall below the 1600 barrier/support Thursday, as Cypriot banks reopen and renewed confidence permeates the land. With upbeat GDP data coming out of the US earlier, the mood was all the more palpable of a steadfast recovery – the USD index also crept higher. Having rescinded its hold on the aforementioned level, the price is trading at USD $1597.12 per oz. in these moments during US trading. A retest of the 1600 mark will ultimately steady the nerves of gold bears and preserve an upside trend that was holding on a weekly basis. Silver edge lower The white metal continued its decent today after managing to pare its losses yesterday in an ugly session for metals. Thursday has thus far proved to be a risk-on trading day, perhaps with investors already looking ahead to Good Friday. Having bottomed out at the 28.46 region earlier (intraday lows), silver is presently trading at USD $28.50 per oz. With the MACD holding negative, it looks to be more of the same during American trading today. Crude rallies towards 97.00 Whereas precious metals have faltered, crude oil has staged a nice rally, breaking above the 96.00 barrier overnight and even making a run towards 97.00. Bolstered by positive news out of the US regarding GDP growth in Q4, WTI Crude prices are negotiating a price of USD $96.74/bbl in these moments. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 28, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD finds support around 1.2810/15 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency is giving away some pips at the moment, hovering over the area of 1.2810/15, as thin trade and lack of market-movers dominate the session so far. Against the backdrop of the recent events in Cyprus, Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman commented, “The market is casting about looking for the "next Cyprus". The consensus appears to be settling on Slovenia, where a new government is wrestling with a weak and leveraged (not nearly as much as Cyprus) banking system. Bond yields have risen sharply in recent days and the 5-year CDS has risen from around 240 to almost 355 over the past two weeks”. The pair is now losing 0.02% at 1.2814 with the next support at 1.2804 (low Oct.2012) followed by 1.2751 (low Mar.27) and then 1.2730 (low Nov.19). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.2884 (MA200d) ahead of 1.3050 (high Mar.25) and then 1.3163 (high Feb.28). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: USD/CHF potential decline ahead – Societe Generale FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The cross is now trading in a very narrow range between 0.9490 and 0.9500 on Friday, stabilizing after climbing as high as the boundaries of 0.9560 on Wednesday, following the positive momentum of the USD. The research team at Societe Generale commented, “ USD/CHF realized vol now very toppish and we expect it to diminish. The realized vols of EUR/USD and USD/CHF are now at similar levels, and this cannot last, as the positive correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/CHF will dampen USD/CHF moves. All in all, this should pressure the USD/CHF implied vol curve lower”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2013 Forex: What a trip! The EUR/USD close the quarter at 1.2800 FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - 960 pips epic decline. The EUR/USD opened the year at 1.3185, in January the pair advanced more than 500 pips to the 1.3575 level and in the first day of February, the Euro even advanced to the highest since November 2011 at 1.3710 but suddenly something changed. After Draghi and company was showing euphoria in the beginning of the year, they switched into the dark mode and the pair fell to test the 1.2750 level, in an impressive 960 epic two months decline. Currently the EUR/USD is trading around 1.2820 on Good Friday. News from Cyprus and now from Italy has hurt the pair that it seems to be set to continue the bearishness. The EUR/USD traded sideways the whole Friday's session, moving between 1.2810 and 1.2835. The pair closed the session 0.03% positive at 1.2820. As for the short term, it will face the next hurdle at 1.2884 (MA200d) en route to 1.3050 (high Mar.25) and then 1.3163 (high Feb.28). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.2804 (low Oct.2012) would open the door to 1.2751 (low Mar.27) and finally 1.2730 (low Nov.19). What's next? According to the FXstreet.com Forecast poll, the EUR/USD is negative, but not that much. Despite latest developments in Europe, our pool shows that a large majority expects the pair to remain above 1.25 and resume the upside later this quarter. The poll expects the EUR/USD finishing the next week at 1.2815 and the month at the same region at 1.2849. The picture is different in the 3-month target with the 1.3128 as target. But Societe Generale states that the EUR/USD remains bullish above 1.2660/20. “Our technical analyst sees that only a weekly close for EUR/USD below 1.2660/20 would negate the bullish pattern arising from the June 2012 to January 2013 rally. Our quant USD positioning indicator remains firmly in long-USD mode”, explained the research team at Societe Generale. BTMU agrees with that as they thinks that the EUR/USD looks bullish ahead. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts are bullish on EUR/USD for the week ahead and see spot moving between a range of 1.2650-1.3000. The bank believes that the fears over Cyprus will recede and the focus will shift to Italy. "“We may also get some movement toward the Italian president appointing an interim prime minister which would alleviate fears over political uncertainty in Italy." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 30, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2013 Forex: GBP/USD consolidates below 1.5200 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is following the prevailing offered tone in riskier assets on Monday, testing session lows in the vicinity of 1.5180 after briefly hitting levels above 1.5200 overnight. Interesting week ahead for the sterling, as manufacturing and services PMI prints plus the BoE MPC meeting are due, although traders expect the repo rate and the asset purchase programme to remain unchanged. As of writing, the cross is down 0.05% at 1.5185 with the next support at 1.5112 (low Mar.28) followed by 1.5092 (low Mar.27) and then 1.5090 (low Mar.21). On the upside, a surpass of 1.5207 (high Mar.26) would bring 1.5280 (high Mar.25) en route to the psychological level of 1.5300 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2013 Forex: GBP/USD eases to 1.5190 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is retracing initial gains after climbing to the boundaries of 1.5220, as risk appetite is shrinking ahead of the US manufacturing data. “Barring ongoing negative data surprises, it appears that downside drivers for sterling may be limited in the short term and entrenched shorts are being lifted. Structural woes in the Eurozone are also helping sterling’s case”, assessed G.Yu y G.Berry, Strategists at UBS. As of writing, the pair is flat at 1.5192 with the immediate support at 1.5112 (low Mar.28) followed by 1.5092 (low Mar.27) and then 1.5090 (low Mar.21). On the upside, a surpass of 1.5207 (high Mar.26) would bring 1.5280 (high Mar.25) en route to the psychological level of 1.5300 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: EUR/USD still facing resistance at 1.2825 ahead of US ISM PMI FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Some volatility was seen prior to the release of the March manufacturing PMI by Markit, with a first test of support at 1.2800 before a rise to 1.2825 resistance. Data rose from 54.3 to 54.6, disappointing investors looking for a figure at 54.9. The EUR/USD eased from its highs towards 1.2815, for now, ahead of US ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending. The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 54.1. “This will mark the fourth consecutive month in expansionary territory for this indicator, as the sustained push higher has been reflected in the improving tone in the various regional manufacturing sector indicators, which are now all in expansionary territory”, wrote TD Securities analyst Alvin Pontoh, pointing to the steady improvement in the new orders to inventory spread (a proxy for future production activity) which is now at its highest level since May, as key to upside potential for production activity. “New orders activity should advance during the month, with the employment sub-index also edging higher. Nevertheless, as the pace of growth slows in the coming months, we expect manufacturing sector activity to moderate”, Pontoh concluded. “The EUR/USD currency pair is being corrected towards its previous descending structure. We think today the price may reach the level of 1.2850 and then start a new descending movement towards the target at 1.2700”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov, expecting then a reversal pattern for a new ascending trend. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2013 Forex: GBP/USD hovering over 1.5225/30 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is following its European counterpart on Monday, now giving away part of the initial gains after climbing above 1.5240. After the last report of the CFTC COT, S.Osborne and G.Moore at TD Securities, commented, “The GBP net short was also extended and remains at extreme levels not seen since autumn 2011. The BoE is in focus later this week and could shift positioning considerably”. As of writing, the pair is up 0.24% at 1.5230 Next resistance levels align at 1.5260 (hourly highs Mar.25) ahead of1.5280 (high Mar.25) and finally 1.5330 (high Feb.22). On the downside, a break below 1.5200 (high Feb.28) would aim for 1.5180 (hourly lows Mar.28) and then 1.5165 (MA10d). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2013 Forex: AUD/USD aiming at daily highs again FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD is holding most of its gains made during the Asian session as the RBA decided to keep its monetary policy intact, with the rate at 3% for the third month in a row. The cross had risen to 1.0479 high, and after profit taking ahead of the European opening, the market climbed the chart back to its highs. Ahead of the NY opening, the AUD/USD eased again, to 1.0454, and is currently attempting at moving higher. “Barring offshore shocks, we believe the RBA is in a comfortable position to sit tight for the next couple of meetings (TD –25bp in June, to 2.75%) as we all wait for Mar qtr CPI report (24 April) and capex survey (30 May)”, wrote TD Securities analyst Alvin Pontoh, pointing also to the strong rise in the RP Data-Rismark dwelling price index by 1.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y, the fastest annual increase since early 2011, while the PMI slid 1.2pt to 44.4 in March. US Economic optimism by IBD/TIPP came a little higher than expected, rising from 42.2 to 46.2 for the April report, beating the 46.1 consensus but still below the 50.0 threshold. A big drop on the ISM New York was seen in March as it eased from 58.8 to 51.2, remaining in an expansionary pace, though. “The AUD/USD has broken its support at 1.0421. However, the subsequent bounce suggests a still strong buying interest”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar, monitoring the hourly resistance at 1.0497 (26/03/2013 high) and the hourly support at 1.0386 (01/04/2013 low. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 02, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Looking past Cyprus, Italian politics are next - BBH FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts believe that when investors have managed to look beyond Cyprus, Italian politics seem to be the next worry on the horizon. They feel that there are increasingly worrisome signs in the real economy, as well as in the financial sector too. They write, “The March manufacturing PMI (44.5) is the lowest since last August and the forward looking orders slumped since last May. Output and employment are at seven-month lows. The general reduction of Target2 imbalances continued into February.” However, the notable exception was in Italy where liabilities rose by EUR 28bln, the largest increase in a year and reversing the improvement seen over the past six months. In addition, unlike most other countries central banks, the Bank of Italy increased its borrowing from the ECB for the first time since last July. They write, “Without putting too fine of a point on it, these figures point to increasing financial strains in Italy.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 02, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2013 Forex: EUR/GBP at 0.8480 after UK PMI and EMU CPI FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/GBP first dropped as low as 0.8469 on the London opening but eventually jumped back to 0.8490 on the release of UK PMI Construction that rose from 46.8 to 47.2 in March, although staying below the 47.5 consensus. As of writing, the cross is quoting around 0.8480. Also out was the preliminary release of EMU CPI in March, coming in at 1.7% from 1.8%, as expected. Investors are awaiting tomorrow’s policy announcements by the ECB and BoE. In regard to the European central bank, TD Securities analysts believe the IFO survey was strong enough to mitigate the tracking for the Eurozone until March surveys universally disappointed. “So if the data is bad enough over the next month, this could trigger a response, or at least flagging the risks for June”, wrote analyst Richard Kelly. “A break of the hourly resistance at 0.8499 (26/03/2013 high) is needed to improve the short-term technical configuration. A key resistance can be found at 0.8602 (20/03/2013 high)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 03, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2013 Cyprus would extend capital control for seven more days FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - According to Cypriot central bank officials cited by Bloomberg, Cyprus will issue a decree extending capital controls for seven days. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 03, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2013 BoJ more aggressive than sky-high-expectation FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The long awaited first Bank of Japan's meeting under Haruhiko Kuroda's surveillance has been published, with the bank announcing the implementation of the following monetary policies: - Bank of Japan will double its monetary base thru JGBs and ETFs in 2 years. The decision was unanimous - Merger asset program with regular bond buys - Purchases of assets extended from 3-year maturities to 7/8-years maturity - JGBs Of all maturities open as future options for purchase - BOJ will buy over 7 trillion yen worth of bonds each month. - Target on bond buying would expand monetary base to the point of reaching Y270 trillion by 2014 - BOJ will increase JGB holdings at Y50T/year - Suspension of the 'Banknote Rule' temporarily - Introduction of 'Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing' - Decision to keep ultra-easing policy until 2% inflation is achieved sustainably approved by 8-1. BoJ member Kiuchi dissented. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/JPY with violent jumps, now above 95.00 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Despite the announcement of a new monetary policy framework and more easing than expected from the BoJ, the USD/JPY took its time to switch from a numb state just below 93.00 to jump above the 94.00 handle. After a few moments, the pair went for another leap, this time to 95.44, but noticeably retraced back. Markets are positioning themselves to this surprise action. The BoJ is now targeting the monetary base rather than the overnight call rate. Surpassing market consensus of 10y point, Rinban operations and the JGB component of the Asset Purchase Program were folded into a new purchasing program with the authority to buy all along the JGB curve - even out to the 40y point. The BoJ expects its total holdings of JGBs to rise to Y140 trn by end-2013, Y26trn more than the previous guidance. JGB holdings are now forecast to rise a further Y50 trn during 2014. “Minor resistance comes in at the 95.25 near term resistance line ahead of 96.14 and the 96.71 March high”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, pointing to longer term target at 99.70 (50% retracement of the 2007 to 2011 drop) and then 101.27/67 (the 1999 and 2005 lows). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2013 Forex Flash: USD/CAD sell on rallies – TD Securities FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - With no domestic data on tap and plenty of Fed-speak today ahead of tomorrow’s data deluge, TD Securities analysts favor neutral range-trading in USD/CAD in the near-term. “From a technical point of view, we have been bearish USD/CAD over the past week or two but price trends suggest that the recent improvement may be stalling”; wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, looking to sell USD rallies at the moment though “and we still rather think that the 1.0180/85 area should be firm short-term resistance”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2013 Forex Flash: USD/CAD sell on rallies – TD Securities FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - What a final session of the week for Tokyo traders today with China closed for holidays and local share markets down dragged on Hong-Kong losing more than -2% on the back of bird flue fears, while Nikkei index gained at some point of the early session more than +4%, adding to yesterday's +2.2% advance. BoJ Kuroda was confirmed by Japanese lower house, giving a speech on his compromise to keep pushing on monetary easing measures until decent gains in inflation rates are seen. USD/JPY printed a fresh 3.5-year high at 97.18, while Nikkie index climbed above the 13k mark for the first time since pre-Lehman crisis, back in August 2008. Other major currency pairs have been quiet over all, including commodities as Gold and Oil, while Hang-Seng index has extended the loses to -2.55% last, and USD/JPY flipped to the downside back to 96.20 lows, on the back of a broad USD selling move, and a 10 year Japanese bond massive sell off. Main Headlines in the Asian session: Yellen comments hitting the newswires now – will allow inflation >2% slightly and temporarily Chinese markets closed again today Forex: EUR/USD tests the 1.2950 ahead jobs report; More to come? What the BOJ committed to yesterday Forex: EUR/AUD stalls below 8-day highs at 1.2400 Aso – wont comment on bond yield level Amari also speaking with reporters – Have to show there is no concern on fiscal sustainability Japan Mar JP Foreign Reserves falls to $1254.4B vs $1258.8B Forex: AUD/USD showing weakness below 1.0450 Forex Flash: NFP at 200k – Westpac Forex: USD/JPY breaks above previous 3.5-year highs Forex Flash: USD/JPY longs looking to take profit – TDS USD/JPY – next barrier option at 97.25 Kuroda still going: The BOJ will continue easing until price growth is sustainable Soros – Yen fall may become like an avalanche Forex: EUR/JPY biggest single day rally on record above 125.30 Forex: EUR/USD below 1.2930 takes a pause ahead of key US NFP Kuroda has been confirmed by the Japanese lower house as BOJ Governor USD/JPY: Off the highs as 10 year yields climb Tokyo stock exchange halts trading in JGB futures after sharp drop Forex: USD/JPY dives below 96.30 on massive taking profit Japan leading indicators feb: +2.5 vs +3.1 prev OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: GBP/USD above 1.5200 ahead of UK data FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is posting marginal losses on Friday, following its European counterpart as markets are slightly biased towards the risk-off mode. Ahead in the day, house prices gauged by the Halifax index are due, followed by a speech by MPC Dale, although the most relevant event will be the US NFP due in the European midday. GBP/USD is now losing 0.07% at 1.5222 facing the next support at 1.5026 (low Mar.20) followed by 1.5003 (61.8% of 1.4832-1.5280) and finally 1.4965 (low Mar.7). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.5259 (high Apr.2) would expose 1.5280 (high Mar.25) and then 1.5330 (high Feb.22). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2013 Forex Flash: USD/JPY looks neutral ahead - BTMU FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts note that USD/JPY looks neutral ahead and they see spot moving between a range of 94.00-97.00. They begin by noting that Kuroda´s regime change was well beyond market expectations. However, they feel that other dollar buying factor may be required for further USD/JPY upside. With the especially weak NFP report this afternoon, they believe that the BoJ’s monetary easing will limit yen upside potential. They write, “Any dips for USD/JPY below the 95.00-level will likely encourage strong buying activity.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Canada: Ivey PMI surprises at 61.4 in March FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The March Canada PMI by Richard Ivey School of Business rose from 51.1 to 61.4, surprising investors that were only expecting a slight rise to 52.4. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Bunds look neutral ahead of strong resistance – RBS FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bund trends remain in place with a new support gained at the 145.80 level, being the 161.8% Fibonacci projection from the February-March 2013 impulse wave. However, it faces a strong resistance at 146.80/90, where several projected Fibonacci levels lie (e.g. the full 200% projection of the February-March 2013 move). According to Technical Markets Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “Momentum tools are pretty neutral, as overbought conditions are not meaningful in a strong trend environment. Therefore, unless a clear bearish divergence develops, there seem to be no reasons to fade the trend. The price heads towards the 146.90 resistance, where there might be an initial reaction leading to a consolidation within the 146.20 – 146.90 region. Once the 146.90 resistance is broken, the next targets would be 147.63, 148.09 and 148.44.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD jumps but the dark clouds remain there; The long & sweet BoJ Game FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Is the war, is the currency war! The Euro recovered ground against the US dollar and after two days of spectacular rally, the pair rose 300 pips from the 1.2745 double bottom to break above the MA200 days to 10-day highs at 1.3040. Is it the end of the two month decline for the single currency? But there are Portugal now... The Portuguese constitutional court rejected some austerity measures listed in the 2013 budget by over €1Bn. The court's rejected measures include public workers and pensioners paycheck, unemployment subsidy and sickness benefit are unconstitutional according to the court. So, the Eurozone seems to be not longer fixed. As resul, the Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho will hold an extraordinary Council of Ministers on Saturday at 14 GMT. Meanwhile, Socialist opposition leader, António José Seguro, said he's "ready to replace the government." Another chapter in the long European tragicomedy. Cyprus, Spain, Slovenia, Ireland, Portugal, Italy... who is next? Natural Citi analysts state that "$1.2260 is fair value for the euro." After consolidating above the 1.3000 during the last part of the session, the EUR/USD reacted slightly down, considering the hour it was a nice movement, and the pair lost 20 pips to close the session at 1.2995. "Bias however remains to the upside as the hourly chart shows price found support in a strongly bullish 20 SMA and indicators heading north above their midlines," comments FXstreet.com analyst Valeria Bednarik. "As long as above 1.2950/60 area the pair could present an upward continuation, although the movement is seen as corrective in the long term, up to 1.3112, 38.2% retracement of its latest daily fall." Nomura strategist Saeed Amen considers that the EUR/USD is technically bullish. Looking at a daily chart Amen notes that with spot breaking about the 200 SMA, it suggests that momentum is on the upside. Further, he adds that RSI is relatively elevated with the past few weeks. Elsewhere he adds that bandwidth is quite low and it is likely that spot will range from here. He writes, “Hence, our target is relatively close at 1.3000.” According to the FXstreet.com currencies forecast, investors have just a little more faith in the EUR/USD. With a 1.3021 average as 1-week target, Euro finds some adepts among the experts, at least in the short term view. The quarterly outlook however shows no consensus, seen in a 2000 pips range. The long and sweet BoJ Game Impressive Yen weakness across the board. In two days, the USD/JPY rallied 500 pips from the 92.75 area to reach the highest level since June 16 2009 at 97.82. The EUR/JPY climbed 815 pips from the triple bottom at 119.15 to 127.30, highest since February 7th. But atonished was the GBP/JPY. The pair jumped 960 pips, yes... 960, from 140.40 to trade at 150.00, the highest since January 2010. Natural that George Soros states that the BoJ game is dangerous, many investors could think the same after comparing the Yen performance in the last two days with the last two years. Soros pointed that EE.UU. is three times Japan and in relative terms, he stated that Japan plan is 3 times the current US QE3. In this line, Rabobank analyst team commented in a recent report that "after years of struggling with deflation there are no guarantees that the BoJ will succeed either in its aim of achieving a 2% y/y inflation on a 3 year view or in returning decent, sustainable growth levels back to Japan." On balance, Rabobank continues, "we foresee plenty of resistance to future yen losses and consequently have revised up our 12 mth USD/JPY forecast moderately to 97.00 from a previous forecast of 95.00. Near-term, we continue to favour buying USD/JPY on dips." There are divergences in opinions, early in the day the RBS analyst team published that the BoJ opened "a new era of the JPY funded carry trade," and they said that their RBS' target for the year end is 110.00. On the short term, HSBC revised higher its USD/JPY forecast to 95.00 in Q2, but HSBC keeps view that pair will finish year lower than current spot, targeting 88.00. The FXstreet.com USD/JPY forecast poll doesn't see heavy gains in the USD/JPY as they sees 97.16 as 1-week average target. However, the Bank of Japan set the tone of USD/JPY, as the pair is expected to remain well bid over the upcoming months, with 100.00 turning real. "Is 110 Possible in USD/JPY?" BK Asset Management's analyst Kathy Lien asks. "Considering that the Bank of Japan has just begun easing, there's a lot more room to the upside," Lien points. "Its 10 year average is 100 and at minimum, we expect USD/JPY to rise to this level but 110 is also possible though 104.50/105 is a more realistic short term target." The week ahead: In the next week, market will digest monetary policy decision with the minutes from the FOMC and Bank of Japan releases and the ECB monthly report. Investors must pay attention to Germany inflation on Thursday and US retail sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Throughout the weekend, market will focus on Portugal developments and new negotiation between Portuguese government and the opposition, and even the Troika, to fix the 2013 budget. On Monday, calendar will bring the Sentix Investor Confidence index in the EMU for the month of April, ahead of the German Industrial Production. Across the pond, the most relevant event will be a speech by Chief Bernanke. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 Forex: USD/JPY breaks above 99.00 FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The US dollar continued to advance against the yen during the American afternoon and finally broke above the 99.00 psychological level to hit nearly 4-year high. USD/JPY extended gains into a third consecutive day and recently hit a high of 99.32, last seen May 2009, before pulling back slightly. At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 99.20/25, recording a 1.5% rise on Monday. As the pair continues to move closer to the 100.00 mark it could face resistances at 99.60 and 99.80. On the other hand, supports could be found at 98.00/05 and 97.30 and 97.00. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Buy USD/JPY on dips in the near-term, but be warned by headwinds - Rabobank FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After rising 665 pips in the last three session from the 92.70 triple bottom area, the USD/JPY reached today the highest level since May 2009 at 99.35. The movement has been fueled by the BoJ aggressive measures to fight the strong yen. Many banks are forecast the USD/JPY to reach the 100.00 this week with the pair ending the year well above the this mark. The Rabobank's analyst Jane Foley points that "currently the real effective exchange rate of Japan is trading well below the average of the past 20 years. This means the Japanese authorities will now find it difficult to argue that the yen is too expensive." And despite economist and leaders across the world have criticized the measure, the BoJ remains firm in its decision. In this case, Foley states that "the greater the move in the JPY the more likely it is that a discussion about currency wars will be re-ignited. " Meanwhile, "it appears that while technical resistance in the Y98.90/99.80 area may slow the move down, the yen is still very vulnerable to the enthusiasm that greeted last week’s aggressive BoJ policy action," comments Folwy. Rabobank continues "to favour buying USD/JPY on dips in the near-term, but would warn that JPY losses are likely to be subject to headwinds from a variety of directions which could limit the magnitude of the move." "The potential for a less robust tone in the USD and a general decline in risk appetite in Asia are not natural conditions for an aggressive rise in USD/JPY," adds the Rabobank analyst. "This suggests it may be more of a struggle for USD/JPY to conquer and hold the 100 barrier than the yen bears currently suggest." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Buy USD/JPY on dips in the near-term, but be warned by headwinds - Rabobank FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After rising 665 pips in the last three session from the 92.70 triple bottom area, the USD/JPY reached today the highest level since May 2009 at 99.35. The movement has been fueled by the BoJ aggressive measures to fight the strong yen. Many banks are forecast the USD/JPY to reach the 100.00 this week with the pair ending the year well above the this mark. The Rabobank's analyst Jane Foley points that "currently the real effective exchange rate of Japan is trading well below the average of the past 20 years. This means the Japanese authorities will now find it difficult to argue that the yen is too expensive." And despite economist and leaders across the world have criticized the measure, the BoJ remains firm in its decision. In this case, Foley states that "the greater the move in the JPY the more likely it is that a discussion about currency wars will be re-ignited. " Meanwhile, "it appears that while technical resistance in the Y98.90/99.80 area may slow the move down, the yen is still very vulnerable to the enthusiasm that greeted last week’s aggressive BoJ policy action," comments Folwy. Rabobank continues "to favour buying USD/JPY on dips in the near-term, but would warn that JPY losses are likely to be subject to headwinds from a variety of directions which could limit the magnitude of the move." "The potential for a less robust tone in the USD and a general decline in risk appetite in Asia are not natural conditions for an aggressive rise in USD/JPY," adds the Rabobank analyst. "This suggests it may be more of a struggle for USD/JPY to conquer and hold the 100 barrier than the yen bears currently suggest." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: NZD/JPY heads towards 89.00 - BNZ FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - As ‘carry trade’ activity picks up through dumping the Yen to buy higher yielding offshore assets, the NZD/JPY seems to be heading towards 89.00 by year-end, says Mike Jones, Currency Strategist at BNZ. "The trend for a weaker JPY shows no sign of slowing down and we have bumped up our year-end NZD/JPY forecast to 89.00. The risk is for an overshoot" says Mr. Jones. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2013 Forex: NZD/USD hits 2-month high FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Kiwi dollar extended gains versus its US counterpart in a bout of risk appetite and posted a fresh 2-month high above 0.8500 ahead of the New York opening. NZD/USD has gained over 50 pips throughout the day and recently reached its highest level since Feb 15 at 0.8512. At time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8505/10, recording a 0.6% advance since opening. On the upside, 2013 high set back in February at 0.8532 could offer resistance, followed by 0.8570 (Aug 31 2011 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8465 (intraday level) and 0.8450 (Apr 3 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 USD muted after FOMC minutes FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - In an unusual move, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March 19-20 meeting earlier than scheduled. However neither the surprise nor the content had much effect on the US dollar, which trades overall mixed across the board. Minutes showed members disagreed on the appropriate timing to start withdrawing QE. Several participants saw asset purchases slowing later in the year and stopping by year-end, while some saw a reduction in purchases at about midyear. Meanwhile, broad risk appetite, which saw the S&P 500 reach yet another all time high, boosted commodity currencies and other risk trades, but the shared currency failed to benefit from the positive mood. Despite recent advance, the euro remains threatened by reality in the eurozone. Economic indicators are not improving, and like they were in a cue, one by one members come under the market's spotlight and scrutiny, with Slovenia now gaining attention. Against the yen, the greenback continues to approach the major 100.00 area as the BoJ ultra loose policy it's taking its toll on the Japanese currency. Euro fails to hold above 1.3100 Technically speaking, even though the outlook begins to turn slightly negative in short-term charts, EUR/USD holds a positive tone in bigger time frames. Still the 1.3140/50 area (the 100– and 50– day moving averages) is the more important resistance level to overcome to confirm an upward continuation with 1.3200 as next target. On the other hand, loss of the 1.3000 mark (psychological level/100-hour SMA) could increase pressure on the cross and see a deeper correction. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 10, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/JPY rises to test 99.80, new 4-year highs FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US dollar is extending further its advance against the Japanese yen with the pair gaining around 40 pips in the latest couple of hours from 99.40 to reach the highest level since April 2009 at 99.80. Currently the USD/JPY is trading at 99.65. With 0.67% gains on the day, the USD/JPY is trading slightly bullish according to the FXstreet.com trend index. Indicators such as CCI, Momentun and MACD are pointing bullish while the Stochastic is bearish in the 1-hour chart. Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, notes that the pair holds a positive bias with 100.00 at sight. Bednarik locates next resistances at 99.80, 100.00 and 100.45, while supports are seen at 99.50, 99.10 and 98.80. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 10, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 Forex: EUR/SEK dips to session lows on higher CPI FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Swedish krona is posting strong gains against the single currency on Thursday, after the Nordic consumer prices advanced 0.4% on a monthly basis, exceeding estimates. Over the last twelve months, prices came in flat, leaving behind the previous contraction of 0.2%. In the opinion of Erica Blomgren, FI Strategist at SEB, “the recent advance of 2% in house prices during March would point to a hawkish bias from the Riksbank”, ahead of its next meeting. At the moment, the pair is down 0.30% at 8.3345 with the next support at 8.3095 (low Apr.3) en route to 8.3051 (low Apr.2) and then 8.2840 (low Mar.27). On the other hand, a surpass of 8.3910 (high Apr.10) would open the door to 8.4457 (high Apr.4) and finally 8.4585 (high Mar.25). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 11, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Strong demand at Italian debt auction FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Italian Treasury held a debt auction on Thursday during which it sold a total of 7.169 billion euro worth of 3- year bonds and CCTEU notes, exceeding the maximum target of 5.5-7.5 billion euros. The 3-year bonds were auctioned at an average yield of 2.29%, compared with 2.48% seen at the previous auction. This is the lowest yield since January. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 11, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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