OctaFX_Farid Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Forex: GBP/USD testing support at 1.5080 after US ADP The GBP/USD has fallen on the heels of a upbeat economic data in the United States Wednesday. A previous upside attempt was halted at 1.5104, causing the pair to decline at the onset of American trading in recent moments. At the time of writing, the cross has settled at 1.5073/76, down -0.35%. According to the ICN.com Analyst Team, “The GBP/USD dropped during today’s session before rebounding to 1.5100 levels. Trading below 1.5190 levels is negative; RSI is trading with a negative bias below 50 supporting our expectations.” In the United States, the ADP Employment Change (February) came in at 198K, against expectations of 170K, and compared with 192K previously. Later today at 15:00 GMT investors will learn of the Factory Orders figure, which will shine more light on the status of the US economy. The ICN.com analysts point to supports at 1.5080, followed by 1.5035, and the 1.5000 barrier. On the positive side, the GBP/USD will encounter resistive means at 1.0260, then 1.5130, 1.5190, and ultimately 1.5225. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD dropping further after surprising US ADP The EUR/USD is entering new daily lows as the NY session opens and US factory orders are still to come. The pair is pressing down again, below 1.3019 (low printed on the release of US ADP employment data). US ADP employment has surprised investors by adding 198K jobs in February, instead of 170K, and revising January's figure from from 192K to 215K. US factory orders are expected to drop -2.2% in January, more than erasing the previous 1.8% gains. “With the ECB tomorrow though we are likely to see more consolidation today”, wrote TD Securities analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore. “For EUR/USD, key intraday resistance comes in near 1.3075, and we continue to favor an extension lower toward the upper 1.28/low 1.29 area in the next couple weeks”, they added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: USD strengthens against metrics – ANZ According to the ANZ Research Team, “Our broader view has been to anticipate, as the global economy repaired itself, that the US dollar would stay soft against a range of currencies, particularly those in Asia and the EUR; and for the AUD and NZD to remain at high levels despite stretched valuation metrics.” Against this view, the dollar has strengthened particularly strongly since early February, and against some currencies since early January. Following this, a consensus seems to have emerged that the dollar's strength has been driven by US recovery expectations, and that this strength is likely to persist. This is not the first time in recent years that a relative growth argument for dollar strength has been consensus. For us the key question is whether the dollar has rallied because recovery expectations are gathering momentum and the US is leading those, or have recovery expectations in fact, suffered a setback, contrary to our cyclical expectations. In other words, is there something wrong with our framework, or has our macro call just suffered a bit of a setback? OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Growth shocks in US unlikely to trigger downside for CAD – UBS Canada's key export sectors - manufacturing and energy - are not enjoying the best of demand conditions, and given the heavy exposure to the US, any growth shocks arising from sequestration in the US would be strongly felt by the Canadian labor market. Canada's current account - although at manageable levels - is struggling to recover and this serves as an immediate deterrent to longer-term investors. As such, “it would probably take more time and data confirmation for such trends to materialize, and we do not expect them to serve as valid triggers for CAD downside on a tactical level.” notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 Forex: EUR/GBP back to 0.8700 ground after ECB Despite GBP strength on BoE's decision of keeping its policy as it was (rate at 0.5% and QE at £375B), the EUR boosted particularly on Draghi's press conference where he gave an upbeat speech, underlining his confidence in Eurozone's economic recovery. The EUR/GBP drop on the BoE was supported around 0.8640, and then the cross shot back up and moved above the 0.8700 line. As of writing, the market trades at 0.8708 (+0.79%) and has printed its daily high at 0.8715. “EUR/GBP is moving in a horizontal range between the support at 0.8572 (13/12/2013 low) and the resistance at 0.8815 (25/02/2013 high)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar, pointing to an hourly resistance at 0.8685 (01/03/2013 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Euro finds its way to 1.3100 The dollar weakened broadly during the New York session and fell versus most competitors after the global central banks remained on hold at today's monetary policy announcements. The euro advanced, moving off recent lows sub-1.300, after the ECB held its interest rates steady. In the subsequent conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that even though the decision was not unanimous, the ECB never precommits. Draghi also sounded optimistic by saying the economy will gradually recover and played down the Italian elections effects on the eurozone. Comments from Draghi alongside better-than-expected US jobless claims helped to boost the EUR/USD which rose above 1.3100 for first time in a week. So what's ahead for the EUR/USD after the ECB? Tomorrow's US jobs report should provide some direction for FX markets heading into next week. "As the week has progressed the here been some improvement in market sentiment, helping to support gains in U.S. European equities and many foreign currencies", says Nick Bennenbroek, Head of Currency Strategy at Wells Fargo Bank. "Should the U.S. jobs report show a solid gain tomorrow the commodity and emerging currencies could rise further, though we are more cautious on prospects for the euro, yen and pound". Euro rises to 1.3100. Could it hold gains? After today's rally, EUR/USD technical indicators have turned positive in the short-term supporting a steeper correction. However, as hourlies reach overbought levels and ahead of the NFP report, the cross will likely see a period of consolidation before another leg higher. The EUR/USD would still need to regain the 1.3160 area (Feb 28 high) in order to challenge the broader bearish bias. On the downside, a break below 1.2965 (March 1 & 6 double bottom) would expose the 1.2900/08 zone (psychological level/ Fib 76.4% of 1.2660/1.3710). Commenting on today's EUR/USD advance, Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at DailyFX says that the rally could be short-lived, especially if tomorrows US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February lives up to the hype (+170K expected). "The growing divergence between the Euro-zone and US economies will be too apparent to keep the EURUSD bid on President Draghi’s 'hopes' for an economic recovery, despite no new policies on either the fiscal or monetary side that would indicate otherwise", he comments. Meanwhile, on a wider view, TD Securities analysts note that if the market takes today's ECB tone too strongly, we could once again find ourselves in a replay of January-February, where Euribors and euro move so much that the ECB must then take another dovish tack to keep market expectations in check. "1.3150-1.3200 is a key risk area for EUR/USD as a push through there would likely bring more upside risk", TD team says. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/JPY in multi-year highs above 95.00 The Japanese yen fell beyond 95.00 against the US dollar on Thursday, levels last seen in August 2009 as the bearishness surrounding JPY intensifies. “Our outlook is fairly neutral very near term, longer term we remain bullish. Currently we remain unable to rule out a slide back to trendline support ahead of another leg higher. We can see that the market remains clearly under pinned by trend line support at 91.29”, assessed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. At the moment, the cross is up 0.92% at 94.92 with the next resistance at 95.77 (low Mar.2008 low) followed by 97.79 (high August 2009) and then 98.86 (high June 2009). On the downside, a break below 93.79 (low Mar.7) would clear the way to 93.15 (low Mar.6) and finally 92.91 (low Mar.5) OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/JPY in multi-year highs above 95.00 The Japanese yen fell beyond 95.00 against the US dollar on Thursday, levels last seen in August 2009 as the bearishness surrounding JPY intensifies. “Our outlook is fairly neutral very near term, longer term we remain bullish. Currently we remain unable to rule out a slide back to trendline support ahead of another leg higher. We can see that the market remains clearly under pinned by trend line support at 91.29”, assessed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. At the moment, the cross is up 0.92% at 94.92 with the next resistance at 95.77 (low Mar.2008 low) followed by 97.79 (high August 2009) and then 98.86 (high June 2009). On the downside, a break below 93.79 (low Mar.7) would clear the way to 93.15 (low Mar.6) and finally 92.91 (low Mar.5) OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Canada: Unemployment remained at 7.0% in February The Canadian jobless rate during February matched January’s at 7.0, bettering estimates at 7.1%. The Net Change in Employment rose to 50.7K from -21.9K previous and 8.0K expected, while the Participation Rate rose a tad to 66.7% from 66.6%. The Labour Productivity rose 0.1% QoQ during the fourth quarter, bettering the prior print at -0.4% and surpassing estimates at 0.0%. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 08, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Session Recap: Strong nonfarm payrolls boost the greenback The main feature of the session was the US nonfarm payrolls report which came in surprisingly strong, boosting the greenback versus main competitors except for the loonie. The government reported the US economy added 236,000 new jobs, against 160,000 expected, while the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, 5-year low, from 7.9% the previous month. Despite the risk appetite boost, which usually is negatively correlated to the USD, the greenback surged as the positive figures lower prospects of further easing by the Fed. Unemployment rate is inching closer to the Fed's 6.5% target for when it will consider withdrawing easing measures. Main Headlines in Europe (in chronological order): Switzerland: Inflation up 0.3% in February, as expected Forex Flash: What does EUR/USD has to offer? – UBS and Commerzbank UK: Consumer Inflation Expectations up 3.6% in March Greece: Inflation rises 0.1% in January Fundamental Morning Wrap: Draghi plays chicken for structural reform as NFP climb expected Germany: Annual Industrial Production decline accelerates in January IMF's Lagarde upbeat on Ireland's economic prospects Euro looks to Payrolls for extra boost European markets resume yesterday's sentiment, US futures up ahead of NFP ECB and BoE easing risks remain finely balanced - TD Securities US: NFP rose to 236K in February Canada: Unemployment remained at 7.0% in February USD/JPY soars above 96.50 on strong NFP Commodities Brief – Precious metals decline sharply following upbeat US payroll data, crude held in check Forex: EUR/USD hits fresh 3-month low American equity markets edge higher on upbeat US data OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 08, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Fundamental Afternoon Wrap: NFPs roar A understandably quiet afternoon for institutional research has seen an obvious focus on NFPs which shattered expectations and some reflection on Draghi´s performance yesterday and the implications looking forward. USD BNP Paribas economist Alexandra Estiot comments on today's impressive NFP numbers commenting the trend is good and supportive for households’ purchasing power and confidence. However, they are not expecting the Fed to react yet. Marc Chandler of BBH notes that the US jobs data was consistent with the recent string of data, clearly showing a surprising resilience to the anticipation of tightening of fiscal policy. Rob Carnell of ING notes that following today´s NFPs he feels that the near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally, most notably against JPY and GBP: EUR Reflecting on yesterdays ECB meet, the European economics team at BAML comment that the policy statement was as usual bland but that he highlighted the point that the ECBs policy was extremely accommodative and how committed the ECB is to maintaining its stance. The interesting part for them was the near near commitment to monetary policy by Draghi, by ensuring that it would keep liquidity available at low rates for as long as necessary and would monitor short term “eonia, both spots and forwards.” Brown Brothers Harriman analysts comment on the resilience of the Italian asset markets, despite the lack of progress towards political clarity. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 08, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Fundamental Afternoon Wrap: NFPs roar A understandably quiet afternoon for institutional research has seen an obvious focus on NFPs which shattered expectations and some reflection on Draghi´s performance yesterday and the implications looking forward. USD BNP Paribas economist Alexandra Estiot comments on today's impressive NFP numbers commenting the trend is good and supportive for households’ purchasing power and confidence. However, they are not expecting the Fed to react yet. Marc Chandler of BBH notes that the US jobs data was consistent with the recent string of data, clearly showing a surprising resilience to the anticipation of tightening of fiscal policy. Rob Carnell of ING notes that following today´s NFPs he feels that the near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally, most notably against JPY and GBP: EUR Reflecting on yesterdays ECB meet, the European economics team at BAML comment that the policy statement was as usual bland but that he highlighted the point that the ECBs policy was extremely accommodative and how committed the ECB is to maintaining its stance. The interesting part for them was the near near commitment to monetary policy by Draghi, by ensuring that it would keep liquidity available at low rates for as long as necessary and would monitor short term “eonia, both spots and forwards.” Brown Brothers Harriman analysts comment on the resilience of the Italian asset markets, despite the lack of progress towards political clarity. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 08, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 China Urban investment (YTD) (YoY) up to 21.2% in Feb from 20.6% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Forex: USD/CAD retraces intraday gains The dollar continued to lose ground versus commodity currencies and the euro at the beginning of the NY session in a sudden spark of risk appetite, although with no clear catalyst, dragging USD/CAD back to opening levels. After failing to overcome the 1.0280 area, USD/CAD turned lower and dropped nearly 25 pips within the last minutes, erasing most intraday gains. At time of writing, the cross is quoting around 1.0265, just a few pips above its opening price. As for technical levels, the Mataf.net sees immediate supports at 1.0250 and 1.0230, while they place resistances at 1.0280, 1.0315 and 1.0335. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: NZD/USD buy on dips – Rabobank The kiwi dollar is bouncing off session lows in the vicinity of 0.8230, gathering traction to the boundaries of 0.8260, ahead of the RBNZ meeting due tomorrow. According to Jane Foley, Currency Strategist at Rabobank, the NZD is facing opposing forces coming from the current drought hitting the North Island, the fiscal austerity and the strong kiwi weighting on the exports sector on one side, and positive momentum in the construction sector from the Christchurch rebuild, on the other. Although consensus remains for the central bank to leave the refi rate unchanged, market participants expect the RBNZ to hike rates at some point during this year. “Despite the relatively high value of the NZD, in view of investors’ continued demand for yield we expect the NZD to hold its ground vs. the USD this year. We would look to buy NZD/USD on dips and expect a re-test of the year’s high in the USD/NZD0.8535 on a 3 to 6 mth region”, concluded Foley. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Troika negotiating a smaller bailout with Cyprus According to Newswires, officials have said that the Troika mission is negotiating a significantly smaller bailout with the Cyprus government on the back of a higher privatization proceeds. The bailout would be of EUR 10B instead of the EUR 17B expected by expert. This change would help to bring debt-to GDP ratio to 100% in 2020. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3030 after declining from 1.3070 in the last two hours. Against the Pound, the Euro is declining hard from 0.8790 to the 0.8735. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 Forex Flash: US inflation rate of 2% likely in the cards – NAB With FOMC members also expecting - consistent with their longer-term objective - inflation of around 2.0% this equates to a real (i.e. after inflation) interest rate of around 2-2.25% which is around our view; albeit slightly higher. Is a 2% inflation rate going forward reasonable? According to the NAB Research Team, “There are certainly tail risks of higher inflation given that the Fed is in unchartered waters regarding how to exit from its QE strategy. Upside risks are also implied by the Fed’s aim of holding interest rates low for longer than would normally be the case as the economic recovery strengthens. However, at this stage, the Fed is being backed to hold the line on inflation.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 13, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/CHF in session highs above 0.9500 The cross quickly left behind the key resistance at 0.9500 on Wednesday, boosted by the upbeat data from the US retail sales, trading at the moment in the upper end of today’s range around 0.9525/30 According to I.Spivak, Currency Strategist at DailyFX, “Prices slipped back below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9496, with negative RSI divergence warning a pullback maybe ahead. Near-term support is at 0.9426, with a break below that targeting 0.9349. Alternatively, a push back above 0.9496 eyes the March 8 high at 0.9551 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.9608”. As of writing, the pair is up 0.56% at 0.9527 facing the next resistance at 0.9552 (high Mar.8) ahead of 0.9581 (high Sep.7 2012) and then 0.9598 (high Sep.6 2012). On the downside, a break below 0.9430 (low Mar.13) would bring 0.9420 (MA200d) en route to 0.9410 (low Mar.7). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 13, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/CHF in session highs above 0.9500 The cross quickly left behind the key resistance at 0.9500 on Wednesday, boosted by the upbeat data from the US retail sales, trading at the moment in the upper end of today’s range around 0.9525/30 According to I.Spivak, Currency Strategist at DailyFX, “Prices slipped back below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9496, with negative RSI divergence warning a pullback maybe ahead. Near-term support is at 0.9426, with a break below that targeting 0.9349. Alternatively, a push back above 0.9496 eyes the March 8 high at 0.9551 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.9608”. As of writing, the pair is up 0.56% at 0.9527 facing the next resistance at 0.9552 (high Mar.8) ahead of 0.9581 (high Sep.7 2012) and then 0.9598 (high Sep.6 2012). On the downside, a break below 0.9430 (low Mar.13) would bring 0.9420 (MA200d) en route to 0.9410 (low Mar.7). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 13, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/CAD settles below 1.0300 Despite the rally witnessed at the beginning of the American session, the dollar failed to break above the 1.0300 level against its Canadian counterpart, and settled within a lower range, where it has spent the last hours in quiet consolidation. USD/CAD peaked at 1.0294 but lost momentum, although with the subsequent setback being contained by the 1.0270 area, the pair is currently trading around 1.0280/90, still up 0.3% on the day. As for technical levels, once above 1.0300, USD/CAD could face next resistances at 1.0330 (Mar 7 high) and 1.0345 (2013 high). On the other hand, supports are now seen at 1.0245 (intraday low), 1.0235 (Mar 8 low) and 1.0200 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 13, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 SNB keeps minimum exchange rate unchanged in March The Swiss National Bank decided to leave the minimum exchange rate unchanged at CHF 1.20 per euro on Thursday and “will continue to enforce it with the utmost determination,” as it is stated in the official document released after the decision was made known. The SNB explained that the CHF is still high and its further appreciation would adversely affect the Swiss economy, thus an increase in the currency will not be permitted. The target range for the three-month Libor rate was also maintained at 0.0–0.25%. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 14, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Forex Flash: US growth expected to accelerate in 2014 – Goldman Sachs FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In light of the recent run-up in US equities, it bears the question if such an influx in returns is stable or additional growth is possible. Indeed, U.S. economic growth will have to accelerate to “ridiculously strong levels” to justify any advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) above the 1,600 level, wrote Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. After already gaining 9.6% this year, the S&P 500 is trading at 1,563.23, less than 2 points from a record and within 3% of 1,600. According to O’Neill, an estimate of 1,575 for the U.S. equity benchmark this year. The world’s biggest economy is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2013 and 2.7% next year. “In order to justify the S&P above 1,600, we’d have to see growth expectations go to something like 4% and beyond,” O’Neill said in a recent interview. “I don’t see persistent upside from those kind of levels without some more evidence that the economy would be growing by ridiculously strong levels.” The S&P 500, which has more than doubled from its bottom in 2009, will trade in a range between 1,500 and 1,600, O’Neill said, without specifying a time period. Despite this recent growth, the USD index found itself in retreat after 6 straight weeks of advancement. This in turn has helped hurt most USD crosses as the EUR/USD found itself advancing today at weekly highs at 1.3108 Friday. Additionally, the USD/JPY found itself in a freefall as the pair lost its grip on the 96.00 level and recently settled at 95.51 during US trading. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD at lows after Cyprus PM resignation FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After briefly passing by the European session low at 1.2917 and extending the daily low to 1.2912, the market seems to be having the downside fairly limited as it shot up back to 1.2930. Despite trading lower on the day, the market remains pretty sidelined as it looks for more triggers via headlines coming from Cyprus. The latest report says the Cypriot Prime Minister has submitted his resignation, but significant move is being seen at the moment US Building Permits rose from 0.904M to 0.946M in February, beating consensus of 0.925M. January data was revised lower, from 0.925M. US Housing Starts also improved more than expected, from 0.910M (revised from 0.89M) to 0.917M. Market consensus was at 0.915M. The ZEW survey for March shows a better image in Germany, better than expected. However, it is also showing a concerning drop in the Eurozone, with economic sentiment falling from 42.4 to 33.4 (consensus of 43.7). Economic sentiment in Germany rose from 48.2 to 48.5, beating 48.0 consensus. Current situation rose from 5.2 to 13.6, beating 6.0 consensus. EMU construction output fell from -4.6% to -7.3% in January, with a monthly contraction of -1.4%. Hourly indicators are negatively aligned, with 55 day EMA capping, with 4h studies holding firm bearish tone. Immediate support lies at 1.2900, ahead of strong 1.2875/65, below which to resume slide to-wards 1.2825/00”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to 1.3000 as first re-sistance ahead 1.3106/33, to shift near-term focus higher and confirm base. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: US/German 2 yr int rate differentials continue to indicate USD strength FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that the US-German 2-year interest rate differential continues to move in a dollar-supportive direction. They see that at 23bp today, it is the largest US premium since the start of the year. Further, the gap created by yesterday´s sharply lower opening in the Euro is found between yesterday's high at 1.2970 and Friday´s low at 1.3000. They feel that this area is important technically and even more so given that it is on the weekly charts. They write, “In contrast, we note the US-Japanese 10-year spread, at 133 bp is near its 10-day low. This would seem to have a more negative dollar factor than is reflected in prices. The dollar filled its gap and more against the yen. It surpassed retracement levels seen from the March 12 high near JPY96.70. We now peg support for the greenback near JPY95.00.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks drop -1.314M in Mar-15 week FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In the week ending at March 15, crude oil stocks in the US dropped by -1.314M following a 2.624M rise in the prior month, according to EIA. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 20, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: EUR perspective remains bearish – Scotiabank FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is extending its correction lower from intraday highs in the vicinity of 1.2980 on Wednesday, as markets are now focusing on the FOMC gathering due later. There are no real triggers for the price action as rumours were ruling the markets as of late. “The focus remains on Cyprus, the precedent its bailout potentially sets and the impact of weak political system in times of crisis. The parliamentary vote for the bank levy bail‐in failed to produce even one favourable vote, complicating the outlook for Cyprus even as markets are relieved that guaranteed depositors remain protected”, pointed Camilla Sutton, Strategist at Scotiabank. “Banks were expected to open tomorrow, but without a negotiated bailout in place, this is likely to be pushed out further. We remain bearish on EUR”, added Sutton. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 20, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD down on European PMI data, held by 1.2980 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD has been falling across the chart since the release of disappointing France Markit PMI figures, with manufacturing PMI at 43.9 vs 44.3 consensus and services PMI at 41.9 vs 44.0 consensus. German data extended the sentiment as manufacturing dropped from 50.3 to 48.9 (consensus of 50.5) and services fell from 54.7 to 51.6 (consensus of 55.0). The EUR/USD has now been holding around 1.2985/90 (-0.35% on the day), with a touch of 1.2980 on the release of the EMU print: Composite PMI down from 47.9 to 46.5 (consensus of 48.2). UBS analysts are bearish: “Any upside will be limited as bear trend persists. Resistance at 1.2996 ahead of 1.3107 - which should hold”, wrote analyst Gareth Berry, pointing to support at 1.2844 ahead of 1.2662. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 CORRECTION: New BoJ head hopes to reach 2% inflation target in two years FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Haruhiko Kuroda held his first press conference as BoJ Governor in Tokyo today, during which he elaborated on the central bank’s prospective monetary policy framework. The new BoJ chief assured that he would do his utmost to fight deflation and bring Japan’s CPI to the 2% target in two years time. “Bold easing is needed in both quality and quantity,” he insisted. He also said that the BoJ’s governing board would consider early open ended asset purchases. Haruhiko Kuroda suggested that the yen was still in a corrective phase from an excessive post-crisis appreciation and assured that the BoJ’s monetary policy would not target FX rates, leaving them to the markets as agreed at the G20 meeting in February. The BoJ governor declined to comment on whether an emergency meeting of the governing board would be held. The USD/JPY hit 95.67 on Kuroda’s speech. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Equities remain positive during active periods – Goldman Sachs FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In thinking about how best to position for macro trends, we have placed a lot of weight on gauging the state of the macro cycle and trying to understand how different states translate into different asset market outcomes. According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We focus in particular on the parts of the month when ‘key data’ are released, that is, on ‘active’ periods rather than ‘lull’ periods when there is no meaningful mass of new economic information.” Moreover, “We find that in favorable economic contexts equity returns are positive in active periods (negative in lulls). In negative contexts, returns are negative in active periods (positive in lulls). Bonds and FX markets also show meaningful differences between active and lull returns.” the team adds. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD falls below 1.29, Cyprus fails to get Russian aid FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Euro has fallen from its daily high at 1.2934 to find a new session low in Asia at 1.288, following the news that Cyprus failed to get the financial support from Russia, Cyprus finance minister Mr. Sarris said. According to Fan Yang, technical analyst at FXTimes, and contributor at FXstreet.com: "At this point, a break above 1.2995-1.30 would form a inverse head and shoulders pattern in the 1H time-frame, and neutralize th bearish outlook in the near-term. A hold below 1.29 would maintain the bearish outlook." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Cyprus deposit levy back on the table FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The latest news on the Cyprus bailout negotiations suggest that the proposition to tax bank deposits is back on the table. According to Bloomberg the Eurogroup is considering creating a ‘bad’ bank and a ‘good’ bank to which the deposits from the country’s two largest lenders, Laiki and Bank of Cyprus, would be assigned. The ‘good’ bank would take in insured deposits below 100.000 euros, which would not be taxed. Uninsured deposits exceeding this amount would go to the ‘bad’ bank and remain frozen until assets were sold. These deposits could sustain losses of up to 40%. Despite the Cyprus tension, financial markets continued trading rather steady on Friday. TD Securities Rates, FX and Commodities Research team comment: “Equities have been modestly under pressure and peripheral Eurozone spreads are generally neutral. In FX land, looming Cyprus event risk is even less apparent, and the majors are mostly in consolidation mode reflecting the minimal developments overnight. “ OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Cyprus stays in key focus - BBH FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that the real focus remains in Europe and after several days of meeting with Russian officials, Cypriots have come back empty handed. Additionally, they add that the Germans have made it clear that the Cypriot proposal for a solidarity fund that raids pensions is not acceptable. They write, “That’s after they had backed the Cypriot President's proposal last weekend to tax small depositors. The negotiating style, if one wants to call it that, is not helpful. Not attending meetings and more broadly, not talking to the Troika, has irked Cypriot neighbors.” The team believe that the restructuring of the country's' two largest banks appears to be a step in the right direction, but it does not sufficiently address the problem itself. They add, “The meaning and significance of the S&P downgrade of Cyprus' credit to CCC from CCC+ with a negative outlook escapes us.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Fundamental Morning Wrap: EUR relief at Cypriot "agreement" FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - There was only ever going to be one focus for this mornings institutional research: Cyprus. News of the adjusted bailout look to have been more telling of the political power struggles taking place within the Eurozone and the news of the bailout (or agreement, depending on who you follow) has had a limited relieving effect on financial markets so far. The underlying suspicion is that despite the immediate risk being averted, dangerous precedents have been put in place. EUR The weekend news was undoubtedly centered on the Cypriot bailout, with Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu of UBS noting that the Troika and the Cypriot Government agreeing on key elements and Eurozone FinMins subsequently approving it too. They add that likely Dutch and German Parliaments will have to vote on the measures, but crucially, the Cypriot Government will not as the levy concept has been abandoned completely. Overall, for the Euro, they feel that the bailout is a double edged sword with deposit outflows likely to ensue as soon as banks reopen, but the immediate risk has been averted. However, they feel that political tensions could ensue. Westpac analysts note that there has been a relief rally for EUR/USD as the threat of Cypriot financial collapse and EUR exit has been avoided. However, they add that the “woefully handled bailout of a tiny EMU member is hardly cause for a sustained rally. The Eurozone economy remains in recession with recovery distant, while the political standoff in Italy (outstanding debt of EUR1.7 trillion) continues.” ING economists cover similar ground, and add that regardless of the bailout it looks very likely that the country’s economy will contract significantly both in 2013 and 2014. Additionally, they flag that Moody’s already stated that even with a deal, Cyprus remain at risk of default. However, they largely see this period as being a power struggle within the Eurozone, rather than financial. They write, “The Cyprus bailout has been an unprecedented power struggle in the euro crisis. While Cyprus tried to call the Eurozone’s bluff, the Eurozone, led by Germany, wanted to make an example that the rescuers do not like to be blackmailed.” They see that Germany gambled that a Cypriot “No” would be more harming for the island, than the Eurozone, but this approach holds much greater risks with larger nations. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank notes that according to the Eurogroup, there will be an appropriate downsizing of the financial sector, with the domestic banking sector reaching the EU average by 2018. Further to that, the Cypriot authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to step up efforts in the areas of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms and privatisation. Additionally, he writes, “Reforms include an increase of the withholding tax on capital income and of the corporate income tax rate. There will also be agreement between Cyprus and the Russian Federation on a financial contribution. The IMF estimates that Cyprus debt will be about 100% of GDP by 2020.” Danske Bank analysts comment that the events in Cyprus, further increase the risk of bank runs and capital flight in Greece and Spain in the future and in the event that new renegotiation´s are necessary in the two countries it could provide faster unrest since money can flee the country for fear of loss. Lee Hardman of BTMU notes that the latest IMM report confirmed that recent developments in Cyprus have resulted in a build up in speculative short euro positions which have reached their highest level since late last year. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Forex: NZD/USD testing resistance a 0.8355/60 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The NZD/USD rocketed higher Monday, as risk appetite permeated across the markets during European trading. After peaking briefly at the 0.8372 region (session high), the pair has eased slightly back to resistance at the 0.8355 level in these moments. At this point, the cross is recording an advance of +0.21% above its opening. “Although the NZD/USD is biased to the downside, trading is stable above the downtrend's key resistance – the upper line was breached earlier, therefore, the possibility of the return of the uptrend is quite favorable and as such, stability above the 0.8200 barrier is a positive indication, probably causing a bullish rebound.” notes the ICN.com analyst team. After barreling through resistance at 0.8310, the ICN.com analysts, additional corrective structures lie ahead 0.8355 onto the 0.8400 barrier. Conversely, supports for the NZD/USD will initiate at 0.8200 onto 0.8155 and finally 0.8135. Later tonight at 21:45 GMT, investors will learn of several trade figures for the New Zealand economy, including import, export and trade balance statistics. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Forex Flash: GBP: Policymakers deploy parachute - HSBC FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - HSBC strategists believe that GBP weakness is likely to persist, but policymakers are already working to ensure that the fall lower in GBP does not turn into a nasty dive. They feel that rhetoric from the BoE regarding currency weakness has recently shifted and the policy parachute has been deployed to slow GBP´s descent. They add that the earlier emphasis on the potential boost to net exports is increasingly overshadowed by warnings against excessive GBP weakness. They write, “The adverse repercussions for real spending power likely lie at the heart of such disquiet. So a slow move lower in GBP related to UK economic weakness is acceptable to policymakers.” However, a swift decline driven by expectations of excessively loose policy or lack of commitment to the inflation target would be unacceptable. Overall, they feel that it is to protect against the second point that the policy parachute has been deployed. They finish by commenting that we are now in the environment where GBO will drift lower and weakness from here will be a lot more muted than seen so far this year. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 Forex: AUD/USD upside capped at 1.0480 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Aussie dollar is extending its momentum on Tuesday, orbiting around 1.0470 after another failed attempt to break above 1.0480, which acted as a tough barrier for AUD bulls on Monday as well. “Markets are pricing -18bp from the RBA cash rate by Dec, having toyed with levels around -16bp Monday as risk appetite peaked”, signals Sean Callow, Strategist at Westpac. At the moment, the pair is up 0.16% at 1.0473 Next resistance levels line up at 1.0555 (high Jan.24) ahead of 1.0560 (hourly high/lows Jan.23) and finally 1.0578 (high Jan.22). On the downside, a breach of 1.0408 (MA100d) would bring 1.0389 (MA10d) and then 1.0363 (low Mar.21). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now