official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 25 2016

The currency pair EUR/USD remained squeezed early yesterday and decreased during the closing of the trading session at 1.1275 or -0.27% whereas investors are focused more about the symposium participants held in the place of Jackson Hole, Wyoming along with the upcoming speech from the Chair of the Fed, Janet Yellen with regards on the possibility of a hawkish movements for the percentage rates on USD.

 

As the New York Fed chair, William Dudley declared that there is probably a rate hike in September, the euro is said to be affected upon the 25-basis point rate or 18%. Presuming the approval of Yellen for the increase in September would indicate a bearish pattern for the EUR/USD.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: August 26, 2016

 

The USD/JPY pair remained within its range while the markets are awaiting Janet Yellen’s speech within today. Aside from the Fed’s statement release, investors are also anticipating the release of Japan’s inflation data, which is expected to cause volatility in the yen’s current value. The BoJ might not be able to extend additional support to either the Japanese economy or to assist inflation rates while employers refuse to have a wage increase, causing stagnation in the country’s economic cycle. The IMF has also recently noticed that Abenomics was not able to use its three-arrow plan in order to boost the economic status in Asia.

The index of Nikkei 225 increased by 10% since June and the JPY has also increased in relation to the USD. This might become a problem for stocks since a strengthening yen would not attract exporters as it can decrease their foreign profits especially when converted to their local currencies. Investors are also worried that the Bank of Japan might dominate financial markets after the BoJ doubled its purchases of Tokyo-based shares, which can cause distortions in prices. This will also make it harder for investors to separate functional companies from non-functional ones, and can also cause misallocation of capital and can reduce incentives which are needed by companies to attain shareholder needs.

The Bank of Japan has previously attempted to revitalize the Japanese economy and put a stop to years of deflation by way of purchasing large amounts of assets, thereby flooding the economy with cash. This has mostly included corporate bonds, JGBs, and ETFs.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 26 2016

The Aussie and the US dollar hover to the range bound periods raised with 11 points at 0.7624. The quantitative measures indicated a low level but will experience a slight effect because of the grand news of Yellen on her Jackson Hole speech. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group reported that AUD strengthened which influence the economic growth while exports from the region like coal and iron ore are consistent to have the largest volume of supply among countries all over the world.

Subsequent to the unsatisfactory rate of the AUD yesterday due to a lower-than-expected results of the infrastructures, Australian dollar still gained positively.

Australian reports have noted the statement from one of the largest government owned company of the continent, QIC Global Liquid Strategies with the head of the pension managers, Ms. Katrina King said that at US 77 cents, AUD is seen to be overvalued by 10% evaluated by the RBA's newly-developed in-house economic modeling.

While Mr. Roy Teo, an analyst from said that the ABN Amro Bank NV ended their recommendations during the closing of the third quarter since they perceived that the AUD will be bearish with a target price of 72 cents. Reports from Bloomberg issued a forecast from the RBA about the ease of movement on November and expecting the AUD to finished with 74 cents on year end.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 1, 2016

The USD went up slightly higher than the JPY during Wednesday’s session as investors are waiting for the latest updates on the economic status of the United States. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 103.259 points, going up by +0.30% or 0.304. Volatility and volume levels were on a below average level since majority of the currency players in the market are staying on the sidelines prior to the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, which will be determining the frequency and timing of the oncoming Fed rate increases.

 

Tuesday’s trading session saw an increase in the USD/JPY pair, after the consumer confidence report in August showed an increase at 101.1, its highest in a year. However, newfound concerns regarding the overall state of the Japanese economy arose as the release of industrial production figures for Japan surprised economists who were expecting two consecutive monthly gains, insinuating the possibility that the Japanese economy might be failing to sustain its progress for the third quarter.

 

Traders and investors are now waiting for the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Report, which is expected to show an increase in jobs offered by the private sector. A below average data could further weaken the USD/JPY, but the onset of the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday might help in alleviating possible losses.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 1, 2016

The results of the US ADP survey made an impact over the possibility of the price hike set by the Fed. Dollar is up on today's trading and perpetuated a bullish view. EURUSD attained 3 week lows in the rear of the ADP employment report favorable results. The pair is moving south with a descending trendline while the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are drawn away to the pair price. The indicators stands in the negative area, MACD and RSI signaled a bearish pattern. Level of resistance exists at 1.1200, support is seen at 1.1130.

 

The EUR/USD is speculated to remain in the support level of 1.1130, in case that the currency pair failed to maintain its current support then the momentum investing will be altered with 1.1070.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: September 2, 2016

 

The EUR/USD pair went down by 6 points today as the unemployment rates in the European Union went up and the USD continued to strengthen. The PMI data for the eurozone also came out lower than expected at 51.7 points. The EUR is currently trading at 1.1151, indicating that the pair is currently at the bottom rung of its trading range.

 

The US jobs data showed an additional 177,000 jobs in the private sector last month, with a significant number of firms and industries adding up their payrolls. On the other hand, last week’s Fed statement are hinting at a possible interest rate hike in September, and if the payroll data comes out stronger than expected, investors should expect an increased volatility in the market.

 

During the past five years, the August data for US Non-Farm Payrolls has always been erratic, and it is expected to miss again for this period. Traders are then warned of sudden price moves among all asset classes due to the said positions, regardless of whether the data comes out as positive or negative.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 5, 2016

The EUR/USD pair whipsawed after the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The initial expected data was an increase of 180,000 jobs which led to a disappointment in the market as the pair topped out at 1.1252 before going below the the 10-day moving average at 1.1221 points. The currency pair’s exchange rate went up above the support line near the 10-day moving average at 1.1124 points. The RSI is currently reading at 46 points in the middle of the neutral range.

 

In August, the data for the US non-farm payrolls went up by 151,000, falling short of its expected release after the 275,000 upsurge in July. The 3-month average is presently at 232,000, while the labor data increased by up to 176,000 while the household employment data also increased at 97,000. Unemployment rates were stagnant at 4.9% with participation rates on the neutral at 62.8%. Meanwhile, the average hourly earnings for July surged by 0.1% from its previous rate of 0.3%.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 5 2016

 

The Japanese yen demonstrated a weak movement despite of the positive labor statistics of US. The pair demonstrated a steep decline at the level of 103.50 and take a fresh daily lows thereafter the report of the US Non Farm Payrolls. The daily low of the USDJPY lured financiers to purchase interest which made the rate acquired price growth. Resistance level is seen at 104.50, support is at 103.50. The moving averages of the price presented a bullish tone according to the 4 hour chart while further stimulated on Friday.

 

MACD approached on the positive zone. RSI is situated in the overbought area. Indicators revealed signal for the buyers. It is recommended for the sellers if they are able to drive the price below 103.50 so they may earn a double.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 6, 2016

 

The EUR/GBP traded higher by 3 points, going up at 0.8403. However, the pair still remains at the bottom rung of its trading average since the GBP has been bouncing back during the past sessions, especially since UK economic data reports has shown that the Brexit vote did not have that much of an adverse effect to the economy in contradiction to the initial speculations. Financial institutions such as the IMF has also stated that they are now reevaluating the situation since the Bank of England’s foresight has prevented further damage to the UK economy.

 

Meanwhile, the EUR went slightly higher at 84 pence. However, this is not far from Friday’s all-week low of 83.76 points. The construction and manufacturing surveys for the eurozone showed a major comeback, while the manufacturing PMI data recovered from July’s three-year low and traded at 53.3 points in August, its highest trading point reached in 10 months. On the other hand, the construction PMI data went up to 49.2 points from July’s 45.9 points, going over the speculations indicated in economic polls.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: September 6, 2016

 

In consonance with the report of the Australia Company Gross Operating Profits the Aussie demonstrated a good growth. The pair continued to flourish during the first day of the week. The buyers are able to drive the price level to 0.7600 as it became the turning point of the pair which marginally lose edge.

 

Moving averages keep on the neutral position as presented in the 4-hour chart. Resistance is seen at 0.7600, support is at 0.7540.

 

MACD lies near through the centerline. So in case that the histogram indicated a negative position the seller's strength will bolster but if it pierced within the positive territory, it will allow the buyers to rule the market. The RSI comes in at the overbought territory.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: September 7, 2016

 

The NZD/USD pair weakened in relation to the USD, trading at 0.7231 points after the Reserve Bank of Australia held fast to its interest rates and monetary policies. The NZD might increase after the release of data from the GlobalDairyTrade auction tonight, where there is an expected surge in the prices of milk powder. Traders and speculators are now monitoring the data for wholesale trade for the second quarter, as well as an update on the RBA’s interest rates.

 

On the other hand, borrowers are expecting even lower interest rates following low inflation rates. Statistics New Zealand released a report last Monday showing that the Consumer Price Index went up by 0.4% as of June 30. The RBA is predicting that inflation rates would go up by 0.6%, and economists are now expecting the bank to cut down its cash rates by up to 2%.

 

Westpac has also stated that based on the market prices of financial products, there is now an 80% chance of the RBA cutting down the OCR by up to 70% prior to the release of rates.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 7 2016

 

The report of the Non-Manufacturing PMI established a slowdown result which also weakened the US dollar and lowered its monthly performance.

 

During the Asian and Europe session held yesterday the pair existed in the pressured area near the level of 1.1130.

 

EURUSD interrupted the 1.1200 level then headed in the level of 1.1270. The pair also receded the moving averages 50,100 and 200 furthermore shifted toward the north direction. The resistance approached the 1.270 level whereas the level of support is set at 1.1200.

 

MACD indicated a softened position of the sellers. RSI moves closer to the overbought condition.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 8, 2016

 

The USD continued to plummet against the JPY during Wednesday’s trading session, dropping by -0.55% or 0.564 points to trade at 101.445 points. This drop in rates was mostly caused by a negative-leaning US economic data, which reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike within the month, and protective sell stops are also being triggered by every new low encountered.

 

The Institute for Supply Management’s data release for the non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index also fell at 51.4 points last August, the largest drop seen for the data since November 2008, especially since traders and speculators were expecting 55.4 points. Traders are speculating that the fragile economic data can be used by Fed to refrain from increasing its interest rates.

 

The labor market conditions data from the Fed also plummeted in August at -0.7 points following a positive data surge in July. On the other hand, the JPY continues to rise following reports that BoJ policymakers had varying opinions prior to the bank’s meeting on September 20-21. The said meeting is expected to tackle the bank’s stimulus program and conduct a thorough assessment of the said program. Analysts are speculating that the BoJ’s move to review its stimulus program may be a sign that its policymakers are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of the nation’s economic stimulus program.

 

The US is also expected to release its most recent job openings report, with investors expecting data to come out at 5.58M, which is a bit lower from the previous data release of 5.62M. Meanwhile, the Fed is also expected to release its most recent Beige Book data. In addition, Esther George from FOMC will also be releasing a statement on Wednesday, which might have an impact on the market especially if there is a discontinuation of the expected interest rate hike in September.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: September 8 2016

The dollar made some withdrawal since the Fed had an increase despite that the market is experiencing a very high risk. The growth in the price of oil affected the CAD positively. Investors on the other hand are looking forward for the result of BOC meeting.

 

The period of indecision of the pair intervenes between 1.2824 - 1.2864. The sentiment of USD CAD is identified to be neutral. The moving averages of the pair maintained a bearish position.

 

The 50-EMA crosses the 100 and 200 EMAS as seen in the hourly chart. The level of resistance marked the 1.2900 and the current support approached the 1.2800 level.

MACD demonstrated the same position that strengthened the sellers otherwise the  RSI is moving towards the negative zone.

 

The pair is recommended to surge with a resistance level of 1.2900 though there is a tendency to make a reversal and restore a lower position, seller should work for a price increase heading to 1.2800.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: September 9, 2016

The GBP/USD pair increased by 30 points to trade at 1.3370, hitting its highest trading point since the Brexit vote. The GBP was able to gain strength due to the weakening of the USD and strong economic data. The Bank of England previously underwent criticism from Brexit supporters after the central bank stated that the UK economy would soon face a massive slowdown and a recession after the Brexit vote. Post-Brexit data has shown that the UK economy did not wholly suffer the drastic post-Brexit changes that was initially forecasted by analysts and spectators. However, economists are still speculating that it will not be long before Britain goes into an economic slowdown.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney defended the bank’s moves against critics who were saying that the BoE has moved too rashly with regards to its handling of the Brexit shock, particularly in August where the bank cut down on its interest rates, eased lending policies, and expanded its bond-buying mechanisms. Carney has since then stated that the BoE has always expected that the main economic sectors would be able to recover from the referendum’s sudden impact in July, and this was shown in the recently published PMI data during the past few days.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: September 13, 2016

 

The USD/CAD increased by 28 points after a decrease in oil prices caused by a positive US production data and an easing in gold prices. The Canadian dollar is currently trading at 1.3077 points after an increase in international commodity prices, with the USD rallying on Friday after speculations that the Fed might consider an increase in its interest rates within the month.

 

The USD is increasing in relation to the CAD after a relatively positive US jobless claims data and negative Canadian building permits report data. According to the US Department of Labor, the jobless claims data up until September 3 decreased by 4,000, going down from 263,000 to 259,000. However, market analysts are still expecting the jobless claims data to go up by 2,000 within the week.

 

Canadian building permits data meanwhile went up by 0.8% in July, exceeding initial expectations for an increase of only 0.3%. The housing price index data also saw an improvement, rising to 0.4% from last month’s 0.1%, while the annual score also increased 2.5% to 2.8%. Investors are refraining from buying into the CAD due to the appeal of other riskier currencies.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2016

 

Macroeconomic announcements of UK were not yet issued since Monday. The property market of UK will tend to focus more on the upcoming session of the Core Consumer Price Index.

 

The trading range of the pound indicates an upward movement on a low volume last Monday which is not distant to the low result on Friday.

 

The price of the pair ranges from 1.3244 to 1.3285 throughout the day trading.

Upon the outset of the North American session the dollar and the pound regained.

GBP/USD introduced a higher position in the 4-hour chart which made its price to reach the 50-EMA.

 

The 100-EMA moved upward and crosses over the 20-EMA with a similar chart.

Moving averages established a bullish pattern. The resistance is in the level of 1.3360, support comes in 1.3200 level.

 

MACD is in the negative territory. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers.

 

As the MACD enters the negative zone, it affirmed for the seller's strength. RSI sets in the oversold condition.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: September 14, 2016

 

The NZD/USD pair went lower during the last trading session, going down 12 points to trade at 0.7341 in the light of an impending interest rate increase by the Fed and confusions brought about by a decision from the Bank of Japan. On the other hand, China’s industrial production data went well above the expected range but did not seem to bring much support to the commodity currency. The Chinese industrial data increased by 6.3% in August as compared to last year, while retail sales data also exceeded expectations from market speculators.

 

Traders are now monitoring data from New Zealand, with the account balance due on Wednesday, economic data results scheduled to come out on Thursday, and the results of the consumer confidence survey set to be released on Friday. The NZD was also supported by an increase in food prices, which can cause inflation rates to ease a little bit. Bond prices from New Zealand also decreased, with yield points at 1.5 basis points, going higher towards the end of the yield curve.

[Andrea FXMart]

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14 2016

 

After the Board of Governors of the Fed released an announcement regarding their speculations to bring around the possible increase in rate for the month of September. The US dollar and Japanese yen confirmed a buy signal on Tuesday. On the other hand, the dollar recovered from the losses it endured on Monday. The buyers also drove the price within the level of 102.50. The financial instrument restored its position on top of the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs as indicated in the 4-hour chart while remained in a neutral status.

 

Resistance is placed at 102.50, support settled at the level of 101.40. MACD arrived at the negative zone and experienced a steep decline that signaled seller's strength. RSI bounced against the oversold condition.

[Andrea FXMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 15, 2016

 

The EUR weakened while the GBP further increased, causing the EUR/GBP pair to trade at 8.499 points, going down at .0003 or -0.035%. The pair movement has caused a technical reversal top, which signals that investor sentiments are about to drop. Eurostat has also reported on Wednesday’s economic news that the industrial production data decreased by 1.1% in June, with a 0.8% increase in May.

 

On the other hand, the UK employment data is showing a resiliency in the UK jobs market, even after the Brexit vote. The Office of National Statistics has reported an increase in employment rates, going up by 174,000 to 31.77 million in just three months since July. These employment rates are the highest in 40 years, with the increase in the number going above the expected range by economists. The unemployment rates also remained at a stagnant range of 4.9% in July. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits went up by 2,400 to 771,000 last August.

 

However, wage growth data also experienced a gradual slowdown, causing economists and speculators to have unsteady opinions with the set of data released. However, this strengthening of British employment and jobs data may cause the Bank of England to pay less attention to interest rates and maintain its current stimulus once the bank announces it decisions regarding monetary policies on Thursday.