official Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart.eu

[KostiaForexMart]

Gold: The New Crisis King? Best Quarter Since 1986 Amid Global Turmoil

Trump Shakes Up Markets: Stock Markets Panic as Trade War Threat
Stock markets around the world were thrown into chaos on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump's blunt remarks about his plans to extend tariffs to virtually every country added to the anxiety of investors already worried about the growing threat of a global trade conflict that could push the world economy into recession.

Tariffs for all: Hopes for easing have collapsed
During a conversation with reporters on board the presidential jet Air Force One, Trump made it clear: there will be no exceptions. These words have dashed all expectations that the tariffs could be partially limited. Already on Tuesday, he will receive recommendations on this issue, and on Wednesday, he will announce the starting levels of tariffs. On Thursday, it is expected that the introduction of tariffs on imported cars may be announced.

Investors flee to safe havens: gold and yen are growing
Amid growing uncertainty, market participants flocked to safe haven assets. The Japanese yen strengthened, government bonds became the object of increased demand, and gold soared in price, reaching record highs.

Futures in the minus: investors are losing confidence
Futures on the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%, continuing the decline that began on Friday. Nasdaq futures fell even deeper into the red — minus 1.4%. European indices also took a hit: EUROSTOXX 50 fell by 0.8%, and FTSE and DAX — by 0.5% each.

Brussels is ready for battle — and for dialogue
Germany, through Chancellor Olaf Scholz, announced that the European Union will not stand aside: retaliatory measures in the form of mirror tariffs are already being discussed. At the same time, behind the scenes, information appeared that Brussels is also considering an alternative scenario — a package of concessions that could be offered to the United States as a compromise.

Japanese market under attack: auto giants in deep decline
The biggest decline in the Asian region was shown by the Japanese Nikkei index, which fell by 4.1% — this is its worst performance in the last six months. The biggest losses were suffered by shares of automakers: they are in turmoil after Trump's statements about possible 25% tariffs on car imports to the United States.

Asian exchanges could not withstand the pressure
Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region opened the week with a noticeable minus. The MSCI index, which covers a wide range of stocks in the region (excluding Japan), fell by 1.9%. South Korea's KOSPI index suffered even more, falling by 3%, reflecting the panic of investors.

China is slightly up, but the market is not impressed
Amid the overall negative dynamics, Chinese "blue chips" from the CSI300 index showed a moderate decline of 1.0%. And even news of a slight increase in manufacturing activity in March, which coincided with analysts' forecasts, could not dispel the clouds over the Celestial Empire's exchanges.

Economists warn: tariffs will boomerang back to the US
Many experts are concerned that new tariffs could hurt not only the global economy, but also America itself. The impact could be especially noticeable in the context of the Federal Reserve's limited maneuvers, since rising inflation will make lower interest rates a less effective support tool.

Goldman Sachs revises forecast: recession is not over the horizon
Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a recession in the US to 35%, compared to the previous estimate of 20%. According to the bank's analysts, Trump could announce a new round of trade restrictions as early as April 2. It is assumed that the average tariff on imports from all US trading partners will be around 15%.

Inflation is growing, consumption is weakening: alarming signals from macroeconomics
Publications on Friday added fuel to the fire. Core inflation in February rose above forecasts - an alarming sign for the Fed, which is forced to balance between rising prices and a slowing economy. At the same time, consumer spending came in below expectations, signaling a cooling in consumer activity.

Friday's Labor Market Data Could Be Crucial
Now all eyes are on Friday's March employment report, which could add to fears of a slowdown if the 140,000 job gains come in below the forecast. Also expected are data on manufacturing, services, trade, and job openings, which could either confirm the worrying forecasts or give markets reason to hope.

Bonds Rise on U.S. Economic Pessimism
The mood in the debt market is one of anxiety, as investors increasingly bet on a slowdown in the U.S. economy that will have a bigger impact than a short-term spike in inflation. As a result, confidence is growing that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut its key rate, with the average cut expected to be about 79 basis points this year.

Yields Fall: Government Debt Market Sounds Alarm
The risk-off push pushed the yield on 10-year US Treasuries down to 4.206%. Two-year bonds also responded by falling to 3.861%. These levels reflect growing doubts among market participants about the sustainability of economic growth and strengthen expectations for monetary easing.

All Eyes on Powell: Markets Await Signals
The key moment of the week will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday. His words may give markets a clear understanding of the central bank's further course. Before that, a series of comments from other Fed officials are expected, which may also affect the dynamics of expectations.

The dollar weakens: investors seek refuge in the yen and euro
The weakening yields of US bonds also pulled down the dollar: it lost 0.6% against the Japanese yen, falling to 148.90. The euro is holding steady around $1.0835. The broad dollar index is also showing a downward trend, having finished two sessions in the red and settled at 103.880.

Gold sets a record: flight to eternal value
In a situation of high uncertainty, gold has once again proven its reputation as a "safe haven". Its price has reached a new historical maximum of $3,111 per ounce. The growing interest in precious metals has become a reflection of the global flight of investors from risks and unstable assets.

Oil is falling again: the market fears weakening demand
Cautious pessimism remains on the oil market. North Sea Brent crude fell by 30 cents to $73.33 per barrel. American WTI fell by 31 cents and is now trading at $69.05 per barrel. The prospect of a slowdown in economic activity, which could lead to a decrease in global demand for raw materials, is putting pressure on quotes.

Tech giants lose their crown: the Magnificent Seven are under attack
Once symbols of stability and growth, and their shares were a must-have for any self-respecting investment portfolio. But now the so-called "Magnificent Seven" of the largest US tech companies are facing a massive sell-off for the sixth time in a row. The losses are colossal: almost $2 trillion has evaporated from their market capitalization. Against this backdrop, Chinese tech companies (HSTECH index) and European defense firms (SXPARO) have begun to push the American titans out of the investor spotlight.

US Treasuries: Modest but stable yields
Meanwhile, the US bond market is summing up the quarter on a moderately positive note. The yield on benchmark Treasuries, despite the turbulence, provided investors with a profit of 2.7%. The yield itself has fallen by more than 20 basis points over the period, indicating increased demand for US government bonds as a hedge in an unstable environment.

Germany is going all in: lifting the debt brake for the sake of defense
A game-changing precedent has occurred in Europe. Germany, historically restrained in matters of public debt, has announced its intention to temporarily lift the budget cap in order to increase defense spending. The reason is the weakening of military support from the US. This decision caused a sharp jump in German bond yields - by more than 40 basis points, which was the largest quarterly increase since 2023. Most notably, for the first time since 2021, German and US government bonds are moving in opposite directions.

Japan Breaks Tradition: Bonds at 2008 Highs
While Europe's fiscal policy is becoming increasingly aggressive, in Japan all eyes are on the Bank of Japan. Expectations of tighter monetary policy are pushing up yields on Japanese 10-year bonds. JGBs are now trading at levels not seen since 2008. A jump of almost 50 basis points in a quarter is the most significant increase since 2003, which suggests a possible revision of the long-standing low-rate policy.

Dollar Weakness Gives Emerging Currencies a Chance — But Not All
Amid the weakening of the US currency — the DXY dollar index lost 4% — emerging market currencies got a rare opportunity to demonstrate strength. However, the effect was mixed: some currencies were able to strengthen, while others only worsened their positions.

Lira and Rupee Among the Outsiders: Political and Financial Chaos
The Turkish lira was again under pressure — a loss of almost 7%. Investors reacted to the detention of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's key opponent, which increased concerns about domestic political stability.

The picture is not the best in Indonesia either: the rupiah fell to levels not seen since the 1998 crisis. The reason was growing doubts about Jakarta's budget sustainability and alarming signals about the possible return of military influence on the government.

Bitcoin - like a roller coaster
The crypto market, as always, lives by its own, sometimes parallel logic. Bitcoin first soared by 20% against the backdrop of Donald Trump's inauguration, but then followed a sharp fall of almost 30%. The reason is the skeptical reaction of the market to the announced initiative to create a US state crypto reserve, which, according to investors, remains in the realm of loud slogans for now.

The Middle East and the oil market: an unstable truce - unstable prices
Oil quotes continue to rush in both directions. Investors are assessing not only the balance of supply and demand, but also the situation in the Middle East, where the fragile truce between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is already looking shaky. Any new flare-up of tension could shake up commodity markets again.

Gold and copper are high, coffee is on the verge of stress
Amid global risks, gold continues to grow steadily, adding 17% since the beginning of the year. Copper is not far behind, adding 11%, despite all fears of an economic slowdown. But the biggest shock is in the coffee market. Arabica prices have soared by 18% in just a quarter and have almost doubled in a year. This is due to a series of droughts that have destroyed crops in key regions of Latin America. Coffee lovers should brace themselves: a cup of the invigorating drink may soon become noticeably more expensive.

[KostiaForexMart]

The main events by the morning: April 3

Trump has imposed new duties «against the whole world» – 185 countries on the list. They will start operating on April 5. The minimum base customs duty will be 10% and will take effect over the weekend. "Mirror" tariffs for a number of countries will be applied from April 9th. To implement these duties, Trump had to declare a state of emergency in the economy, which gave him broad powers to establish them.

Russia, Belarus, Cuba and North Korea avoided the imposition of US duties. The White House administration explained that these countries are already facing high tariffs, and previously imposed sanctions are hindering significant trade with them. In fact, there is practically no trade with these countries.

Gold prices reached $3,200 per ounce for the first time. This is due to Trump's new trade duties. Markets are expressing concerns that the US actions could lead to a slowdown in the global economy, forcing investors to gradually transfer some of their assets to gold as a safe asset.

The European Union has offered Trump to negotiate the removal of trade barriers. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that in case of failure of negotiations, countermeasures would be introduced. In addition, the EU is preparing additional measures to protect its interests against the backdrop of an escalating trade war.

Elon Musk is becoming an increasingly complex political figure for the United States. Trump is satisfied with the billionaire's work, but both came to the conclusion that Musk should return to his business projects. The Trump team notes that Musk is unpredictable and occupies various roles: «a ruling partner, an omnipresent supporter and an active campaigner in Washington.»

[KostiaForexMart]

US Market News Digest for April 7

S&P 500 futures hover at critical support: rebound or breakout?
On April 7, futures on the S&P 500 index approached the key support level of 4,953. Holding above this zone could pave the way for a rebound targeting 5,100 and 5,274. However, if selling pressure intensifies, a drop to 4,612 cannot be ruled out. This setup creates potential for both aggressive short-term entries and defensive strategies in the event of a breakout.

The current technical outlook marks a critical decision point for traders, especially amid heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions.

Tariff shock: market loses capital
The Trump administration has escalated trade pressure, becoming the key trigger behind a sharp decline in US equity indices. A 20% plunge from February highs has already eroded investor confidence and stoked fears of a looming recession.

In moments like these, the ability to spot opportunities becomes paramount. Short-term corrections offer profit potential, especially in volatile assets and indices.

Trillions wiped out: what comes next for market?
In just two trading days, the S&P 500 index has lost more than $5.4 trillion in market capitalization. This shift is transforming investor behavior: passive strategies are being abandoned in favor of more active portfolio management. The focus is now on safe-haven assets, short-term speculation, and diversification.

Current market dynamics demand flexibility and swift decision-making. Right now, smart moves can create an edge amid widespread uncertainty.

One of the worst sell-offs in history
The US market is experiencing the fourth-biggest decline in its history. Washington's introduction of trade tariffs has triggered a chain reaction of capital flight, investor panic, and a sharp increase in economic risk. Money is moving into regions perceived as less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Even in these conditions, trading opportunities remain. Rebounds, hedging, and index strategies via futures or CFDs offer ways to turn turbulence into tactical advantage. 

As a reminder, InstaForex offers optimal conditions for trading stock indices, stocks, and bonds, allowing clients to profit from shifts in market sentiment.

[KostiaForexMart]

Market gives away its secret

The world is a stage, and people are its actors. Tragicomedies happen every day in financial markets, but what happened at the start of the second week of April is mesmerizing. In just a few minutes, the capitalization of the US stock market surged by $2.4 trillion thanks to a false message on social media. Its denial by the White House caused the S&P 500 to plummet. What's the message? What did the rollercoaster ride on Wall Street reveal? The nerves of investors, stretched like strings? Or was it the time to buy American stocks?

If you want to make money, use your imagination. If you're thinking about how to make big money, come up with something that will make your hair stand on end.

Someone created a fake Bloomberg account on social media, posted news from the popular media agency for a long time, and gained millions of followers with one goal. On one spring day, they posted information that Hassett was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs against all countries except China. The news was so hot that it was immediately picked up by CNBC and Reuters. The S&P 500 surged, only to fall again.

The S&P 500's reaction to the White House's tariff pause news

No doubt, investors are unnerved. They are worried about what the White House's protectionist policies might do to the US economy. Tariffs on imports and trade wars threaten a global recession. When fear rules market sentiment, no one wants to buy stocks.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 fell by 20% from its February peak, entering the bear market. This was the second-fastest slump since 1945. The first occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing the Federal Reserve to throw a lifeline to the US economy with mind-boggling monetary stimuli.

The dynamics of the S&P 500's transitions into a bear market

In such conditions, investors are trying to puzzle out whether the worst has already happened and it is now time for negotiations and tariff rollbacks. Following this logic, is it the right time to buy stocks? If fear shifts to greed, the S&P 500 rally could be so fast that it will take your breath away. The fake news on social media is proof of that. What is needed is one good piece of news to enable the broad stock index to rise from the ashes.

I don't think the tough times are behind us. At least one trade war, between the US and China, has already started. According to UBS, a recession in the US economy could result in zero corporate profit growth, as every 1 percentage point drop in GDP subtracts 6.9 percentage points from this indicator.

Technically, on the Daily Chart of the S&P 500, a bounce from the support level at 4,905 suggests that the broad stock index may have found a bottom.

There is a high probability of consolidation in the range of 4,900 to 5,200 or 4,900-5,330. It makes sense to sell during a rise to its upper border and buy during a drop to the lower border. In the latter case, you need to think three times, as catching falling knives is extremely dangerous.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

[KostiaForexMart]

"Golden" Forecasts: Gold at $3,500, $3,700 – Higher and Higher?

Gold forecasts are becoming increasingly dazzling in every sense, as analysts appear to be competing with one another over how high the precious metal could go. Rising geopolitical instability and President Donald Trump's current tariff policy fuel this. The yellow metal becomes a last reliable refuge for many investors in such an environment.

According to James Steel, currency strategist at HSBC, Washington's introduction of new tariffs against its trading partners triggered the sharp rise in the price of gold above $3,000 per ounce. "This is the first time in recent years when geopolitics and economic uncertainty have become the primary drivers of the gold market," the expert emphasizes.

Last week, spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,167.57 per troy ounce. As a result, the yellow metal is up 16% since the beginning of 2025. For reference, gold gained 27% in 2024. Monetary policy easing and concerns over fiscal deficits also contributed to increased investment in gold last year.

The current situation continues to favor gold. Against this backdrop, experts are forecasting unprecedented growth. Given that the precious metal has an inverse correlation with trade flows, gold stands to benefit either way. Trump's tariff stance — including the highest trade barriers enacted by Washington in a century — has also sent new investors rushing into gold, driven by fears of a full-blown trade war.

Gold has now surpassed the U.S. dollar in popularity among safe-haven assets, partly due to the prolonged weakening of the greenback. Additionally, many analysts have noted signs that the USD's status as the world's reserve currency is eroded by ongoing tariff uncertainty. In this environment, gold is outpacing the U.S. dollar. June gold futures on the Comex exchange rose 1.6% to $3,022 per ounce. On Wednesday, April 9, gold traded at $3,045 per troy ounce.

Global Uncertainty and Market Volatility Are Fertile Ground for Gold

Trump has significantly contributed to this environment by upending the global order just 2.5 months into his presidency, signaling that the U.S. will no longer guarantee European security, as it had since World War II. Moreover, the White House has radically shifted the U.S. stance on the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The eccentric billionaire has even seriously discussed the possibility of annexing Greenland.

Given the circumstances, currency strategists at Deutsche Bank have revised their gold price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upward, citing geopolitical and trade uncertainty as strong catalysts for demand for safe-haven assets. According to preliminary estimates, the average price of gold will be $3,140 per ounce in 2025 and $3,700 in 2026. The previous forecast was $2,725 and $2,900, respectively. By the end of 2025, Deutsche Bank analysts project that gold will be worth $3,350 per ounce. The bank's 2026 forecast is the most optimistic among major global financial institutions.

Another factor supporting gold is strong central bank demand. According to Deutsche Bank, central banks now account for around 24% of global gold demand — up from less than 10% in 2022.

Many analysts remain optimistic about the near-term prospects for gold. Last week, HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce. However, the bank is less bullish on 2026, expecting a decline to $2,915 per ounce.

Currency strategists at Bank of America (BofA) also aren't forecasting a meteoric rise. According to BofA analyst Michael Widmer, gold will average $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 in 2026. However, he believes spot prices could reach $3,500 per ounce over the next two years.

"Purchasing gold at $3,000 an ounce is more appealing than buying it at $3,500. However, what is the risk involved? It's the possibility of returning to the conditions we faced two years ago—a more favorable global environment with no threat of trade wars and a Federal Reserve open to increasing interest rates. In that case, the economy stabilizes, financial market sentiment improves, and gold trading effectively dries up. But that's a fantasy scenario," Widmer concludes.

[KostiaForexMart]

Bitcoin struggles to find support as tariff turmoil roils global markets

The flagship cryptocurrency remains in a fragmented state, unable to establish a firm footing. Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility and posted losses this week. Nevertheless, experts remain optimistic, anticipating a gradual recovery of the flagship digital asset.

On the evening of Wednesday, April 9, a major rally was recorded across both equity and commodity markets, reflecting investor reactions to US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of previously announced tariffs for 90 days.

At one point, every single stock within the broad-market S&P 500 index was in the green. The index rose 8.3%, with only 20 of its components closing in negative territory. Leading the gains were airline stocks (United Airlines, Delta Air Lines) and semiconductor companies (Microchip Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, and ON Semiconductor Corp).

According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the White House could soon reach new tariff agreements with the majority of its allies. Talks have already been scheduled with over 70 countries expressing willingness to deepen cooperation with the United States.

Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from the key 102-point support level, which it had been testing actively earlier this month. It recovered all of Tuesday's losses, climbing back to 103. Investors dumped US Treasuries, which they had previously purchased en masse to hedge against the risk of a global recession triggered by the tariff war. "The buy-the-dip reflex is extremely strong. The recent tech stock sell-off has made market quotes more attractive," crypto expert Chris Beauchamp noted.

An island called China

Later that week, Trump officially announced a 90-day pause on the mutual tariffs initially declared the previous week. The steepest tariffs were imposed on Vietnam (46%), Sri Lanka (44%), and Cambodia (49%). However, countries that did not impose retaliatory measures will now face a reduced tariff of just 10% for the 90 days. China, on the other hand, is a different story—the tariff on Chinese goods has been increased to a staggering 125%. The reason? Beijing's retaliatory move. On Wednesday, April 9, China's authorities raised tariffs on US imports from 34% to a critical 84%.

"We've reached a turning point in the trade war initiated by the US president. This gives countries willing to negotiate on tariff elimination some time to work out a deal," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. "Trump has left China on an economic island, completely isolated from the rest of the world," he added. A striking metaphor indeed!

Amid this, the combined market capitalization of the "Magnificent Seven", the largest US companies by market cap, surged by more than $1 trillion. With tech giants dominating this group, the Nasdaq index jumped more than 10%, outpacing the S&P 500. And it may not stop there.

Crypto reacts sharply to global instability

Meanwhile, the global crypto market responded with a sell-off across most assets. On Monday, April 7, Bitcoin plunged to $74,500, triggering shockwaves across global financial markets. The situation has since stabilized, but a full recovery is still a long way off.

The bearish market structure deepened when BTC revisited its recent low of $78,600 early in the week. The price now appears to be drifting in a vacuum—neither rebounding nor bottoming out, leaving its direction unclear. Analysts doubt whether the bulls can hold current levels.

From a technical outlook, there's a shimmer of hope for a short-term bullish push. The range of $75,100 to $80,000 offers a potential rebound zone. However, this upside momentum is not considered strong enough to reverse the broader downtrend.

Bitcoin sinks below $80,000: consolidation or another dip?

On April 9, Bitcoin surged above $84,000, gaining more than 8% within a few hours following Trump's unexpected announcement of a global tariff pause. This rally supported a recent forecast by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who suggested that growing economic uncertainty might present an attractive entry point for long-term crypto investors.

Despite this bullish move, Bitcoin faced stiff resistance at $88,800—a high from April 2 when the initial tariff news broke. The top of the Keltner Channel now sits near $88,130, making it a critical resistance zone.

Analysts note that traders who entered during BTC's correction may start taking profits near breakeven levels, forming a potential "wall of selling." If Bitcoin fails to overcome this resistance, the path to the psychological $100,000 level could remain blocked.

The lower border of the Keltner Channel—currently at $73,500—acts as strong support and aligns with a liquidity zone formed during recent consolidation. A drop below $80,000, especially with growing selling pressure, could accelerate the downward move.

Trump's tariff pivot sparks BTC breakout to $84,000

On April 10, Bitcoin gained 12% after Trump dramatically revised his aggressive trade policies, replacing sweeping tariffs with a flat 10% duty, except for China. The policy shift eased investor fears about a full-blown global trade war.

The crypto market responded swiftly. BTC jumped from a low of $74,700 to a peak of $83,600, its strongest single-day gain since March 2025. Leading altcoins followed suit, with Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Solana, and Dogecoin all posting double-digit gains.

The 10% rebound in BTC on April 10 coincided with comments from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who stated that widespread tariff enforcement could trigger a global market correction of up to 20%. However, he also called the situation "an incredible buying opportunity," encouraging investors to act. "I see this more as a buying opportunity than a selling one," said Fink, who also expressed a positive near-term outlook for Bitcoin.

The Trump administration's latest tariff changes affirm Fink's argument that the chaos of the trade war may present seasoned traders with a chance to capitalize on falling prices. Despite lingering bearish risks, many market participants viewed the situation as a green light to reenter the market, turning current uncertainty to their advantage.

[KostiaForexMart]

Trump, Fed, $3,000 Gold? Markets React to Red Flags

Investors Lose Confidence as Markets Fall as Trump Presses Fed
Asian stock markets and US futures opened the week with significant losses, reflecting growing concerns amid political pressure on the US Federal Reserve and rising trade risks.

President Donald Trump's sharp criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been in the spotlight. Sources say the White House has seriously discussed Powell's resignation, raising questions about the US central bank's independence and sending shockwaves through global markets.

A Weekend Without a Break for Markets
Despite the Easter holidays, which closed most European trading floors on Friday and Monday, a wave of instability swept global exchanges. Low liquidity only increased volatility.

S&P 500 futures fell by 0.75%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei and Taiwan's TWII fell by more than 1%, while Chinese markets, despite the overall negative backdrop, managed to show modest growth.

Trade threats and political pressure hit the dollar
Trump continues to escalate tensions in financial markets with his statements and tariff policy. Investors are increasingly doubting the stability of the dollar and the attractiveness of American assets, traditionally considered a "safe haven" in turbulent times.

Markets reacted especially painfully to the new wave of rhetoric from the president, directed against the Fed and its leadership. The intensification of these attacks has become a catalyst for further loss of confidence.

Currency Swings: Dollar Loses, Gold, Franc Gain
Amid the risk-off trend, the dollar has weakened significantly. The euro has hit a three-year high, the Japanese yen has strengthened to a level not seen since September, and the Swiss franc has soared to a ten-year peak against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, gold, a classic safe haven in times of instability, has risen to record highs, a signal that investors are seeking shelter from the storm raging on the financial horizon.

Is the Fed's Independence in Danger? Experts Sound the Alarm
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern about mounting political pressure on the central bank in an interview on Sunday. He stressed that it is critical to preserve the Fed's ability to set monetary policy without outside interference. According to Goolsbee, the Fed's reputation as the world's leading central bank is based on its independence — and any attempts to undermine that could have long-term consequences for economic stability and investor confidence.

Markets react to nervousness: yields jump
Amid worrying signs from the political front, bond markets are showing mixed dynamics. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose by 3.5 basis points in Asian trading. At the same time, the two-year notes, which are more sensitive to rate changes, fell by 3.6 basis points.

This reflects growing market expectations for a possible rate cut — especially after Trump put pressure on the Fed's leadership.

Eyes on the giants: reporting season begins
This week, Wall Street's attention is focused on the publication of financial results from tech giants. Among them are holding company Alphabet, semiconductor giant Intel and electric car maker Tesla.

2025 has been a tough year for the so-called "magnificent seven" stocks, with Alphabet down around 20% and Tesla losing almost 40% of its market cap. Investors will be watching quarterly reports closely to see if there is a chance of a reversal.

Trading games continue: uncertainty weighs on businesses
Companies continue to adapt to the changing structure of US tariff policy. Despite temporarily suspending some high tariffs, the White House is maintaining a tough line and increasing pressure in international trade talks.

Relations with China, the world's second-largest economy, remain particularly tense. New rounds of negotiations are going hard, and the prospects for a sustainable agreement remain unclear. The business community is watching developments with concern, as further escalation could lead to new chains of disruptions and market volatility.

South Korea sees warning sign as exports plummet
The latest economic data from South Korea showed a sharp decline in exports in early April, a worrying sign that U.S. tariffs are starting to hit global trade more deeply.

Seoul and Washington are preparing for a new round of talks this week, but market participants are under no illusions: uncertainty is high and disagreements on key issues remain.

Private Conversations and Public Irritation: China and the U.S. Are Again on the Brink
President Trump said Friday that the U.S. and China are continuing to have "good private discussions" despite ongoing trade tensions. But Beijing's diplomacy has been far more measured, with its ambassador to the U.S. making it clear that there will be no constructive dialogue until Washington shows "the right level of respect."

The rhetorical divergence underscores that differences remain deep and the potential for escalation remains high.

Safe Haven Glitter: Gold Rewrites History Again
Gold continues its steady climb. On Monday, the precious metal surpassed $3,370 an ounce, setting a new all-time high. A gain of more than 1% in a day brought gold's year-to-date return to an impressive 26%.

Amid growing geopolitical instability and currency market volatility, investors are increasingly seeking safe havens, and gold, as always, lives up to its status as an "evergreen."

Oil Loses as Iran and the US Draw Closer
Oil prices fell after news of progress in nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington. The prospect of a partial normalization of relations eased fears of supply disruptions from one of the key producers in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell 1.75% to $66.77 per barrel, while American WTI also fell by the same 1.75%, reaching $63.55. This is a reminder to the market of how quickly geopolitics can change the direction of price movements.

Cryptocurrency on the rise: Bitcoin renews peaks
Amid the general instability in traditional markets, investors do not forget about digital assets. Bitcoin confidently went up on Monday, adding almost 3% and reaching $87,515 — the highest since the beginning of the month.

The cryptocurrency market remains a volatile alternative for those looking for both protection from inflation and opportunities for speculative growth.

South Korea on the brink of recognition: the market may receive the status of developed
Seoul is making confident steps towards revising its investment image: on Monday, a representative of the South Korean financial regulator said that the probability of including the national stock market in the list of developed markets is extremely high.

This step could open up new horizons for international investors and strengthen the country's position as a key player in the global financial architecture.

Despite the fact that South Korea is the fourth-largest economy in Asia with a highly developed infrastructure, technological superiority and a stable macroeconomics, it is still listed as an emerging market in the MSCI classification.

This discrepancy has long raised questions among both analysts and international players who see in South Korean assets the stability and maturity typical of developed jurisdictions.

Unblocking "shorts": a step towards investors
One of the key barriers to updating the status has long been the ban on short selling. But last month, the country completely lifted the restriction across its entire stock market for the first time in five years, removing one of the main obstacles that both MSCI and major foreign investors had pointed out.

The move was seen as a signal of commitment to transparency, competitiveness, and openness – key criteria for inclusion in the developed market category.

A Crucial Month: MSCI Prepares Classification Update
All eyes now turn to Morgan Stanley Capital International's June index review. Under MSCI's standard process, markets typically go through a one- to two-year observation period before a full reclassification.

If South Korea makes the shortlist, it would be a major step toward future recognition – with the potential for hundreds of billions of dollars of passive investment automatically tracking the MSCI indices.

[KostiaForexMart]

The main events by the morning: April 22

US stock futures are rising after markets fell due to concerns that Trump is threatening the Fed's independence. On Monday, major indexes fell by more than 2% due to statements about the possible removal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump criticized Powell for slowly lowering interest rates and may be preparing the ground for accusations of economic weakness caused by tariff policy. 

The exchange price of gold exceeded the mark of $3,500 per troy ounce for the first time in history. The precious metal continues to grow amid a weakening dollar, Trump's criticism of the Fed, and ongoing concerns about the effects of a trade war.

Trump's approval rating in the United States has dropped to a record low of 42%. Polls show that citizens are unhappy with Trump's attempts to increase his own power. Americans have criticized his actions against universities, which he considers «too liberal», as well as his appointment to the post of chairman of the board of directors of the Kennedy Center, a major theater institution in Washington. 83% of respondents believe that Trump should obey the decisions of the federal court.

The US authorities demanded that Google split up the company. The IT giant with a capitalization of $1.81 trillion is accused of having a monopoly on the Internet search market. The court wants to oblige the company to sell the Chrome browser and take steps to increase competition in the «moribund» online search market, including providing advantages to competitors.

The European Union intends to deprive Hungary of the right to vote because of its refusal to support Kiev. Earlier, a referendum on Kiev's accession to the EU was initiated in Budapest. According to local political sources, Hungary will not allow its territory to be used to send European troops to Ukraine.

[KostiaForexMart]

US Market News Digest for April 23

S&P 500 on knife's edge: de-escalation or bear trap?
The US market is showing renewed signs of instability. Positive signals about a potential de-escalation in the trade conflict with China are fueling hope, but experts warn against excessive optimism. The "bear market trap" scenario remains relevant in the face of persistent volatility and ongoing uncertainty.

The S&P 500 index remains highly sensitive to news flow, especially regarding tariff policy and recession risks. Analysts see room for short-term downside, but progress in negotiations could trigger a reversal and a new move higher. Follow the link for details.

Trump's softer tone lifts global markets
The softening of US President Donald Trump's rhetoric on China provided a fresh boost to global markets. Asian markets in particular rallied, and the US dollar also gained on improved expectations.

On Wall Street, strong corporate earnings have provided support, but the fundamental threats to the economy remain in place. Trade barriers continue to weigh on growth prospects, and policy uncertainty stands out as the key risk for investors.

As a reminder, InstaForex offers the best conditions for trading stock indices, equities, and bonds, enabling you to profit from shifts in market sentiment.

[KostiaForexMart]

Trump Is Playing a Game Where Everyone Loses

According to a senior official at the European Central Bank, President Donald Trump has drawn the entire world into a game where everyone ends up losing — referring to his trade policy, which is based on flawed economic reasoning.

"Trump's trade tirades are slowing down economic growth, including in the U.S., and threaten to undermine financial stability," said Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, during a speech in New York.

Villeroy called for de-escalation to avoid a spiral of rising tariffs. "Now more than ever, it's important to speak the truth across the Atlantic, fully assess the damage from the trade war, and pave the way for a possible positive dialogue," said Villeroy, one of the most influential central bankers in Europe.

His comments were among the strongest from a European partner in defense and economic matters. It's clear that the Trump administration's reliance on protectionist measures is likely to backfire. The tariffs, initially intended to shield American manufacturers, have already led to higher import costs and, consequently, rising consumer prices. This reduces household purchasing power and weakens consumer demand — a critical driver of economic growth. Beyond the domestic impact, Trump's trade wars are severely harming global trade. The uncertainty caused by constant threats of new tariffs and retaliatory measures deters investment and slows global economic growth.

Villeroy also challenged Trump's claim that the European Union was created to hurt America, stating that the bloc was formed to bring lasting peace, democracy, and a market economy to Europe.

His remarks came just hours after the International Monetary Fund sharply downgraded its forecasts for global economic growth for this year and the next, warning that things could worsen further if a full-scale trade war erupts.

Earlier on Tuesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde urged EU governments to reduce internal trade barriers to make the economy more resilient to external shocks. Clearly, the uncertainty around Trump's trade intentions has caught the European economy at a vulnerable time. Manufacturing and private consumption had only just begun to show signs of recovery after months of sluggish demand driven by high inflation and energy challenges — now that recovery is at risk due to escalating trade tensions.

"International trade is not a zero-sum game where one country's gain must come at another's expense," said Villeroy. "On the contrary, it is the most efficient way to achieve shared prosperity through the exchange of goods and services, ideas, talent, and innovation."

He also noted that the U.S. should acknowledge the significant growth in its trade surplus with Europe in services in recent years, and emphasized that a value-added tax is not the same as a customs duty, as the Trump administration suggests. Villeroy concluded that there's still room for pragmatic multilateralism between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to financial stability, international payments, and cybersecurity.

It's worth highlighting that Trump's trade war has significantly impacted the currency markets. In normal times, investors might flock to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset — but now, capital is clearly flowing out of dollar-denominated assets and into the euro and British pound. Many traders and investors are wary of Trump's aggressive stance, which they fear could push the U.S. economy into recession.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: At present, EUR/USD buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1360 level. Only a solid breakout here would allow targeting a test of 1.1430. From there, a move toward 1.1500 is possible, though achieving this without support from large market participants may prove difficult. The ultimate upside target remains the high at 1.1570.

If the instrument declines, meaningful buying activity is expected only around 1.1280. If no support emerges there, it would be reasonable to wait for a test of the 1.1210 low or consider long positions from 1.1150.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: For GBP/USD, buyers must overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only this would open the way toward 1.3350, which is a challenging level to breach. The ultimate bullish target lies at 1.3416.

In case of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3240. A successful break of this range would deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and drive GBP/USD toward 1.3205, with potential to test 1.3165.