Daily Morning Report 18.09.2015 From Traders-Trust

jonesryan992 · September 18, 2015

Central banks in Japan and Australia had their own comments on the global economy on Friday that boosted the Aussie and the yen after the Federal Reserve cited it as a reason to hold rates steady overnight. USD/JPY changed hands at 119.17, down 0.19%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7185, up 0.14%. EUR/USD traded at 1.1408, down 0.24%. Some Bank of Japan board members suggested that higher government spending is a key variable in lifting price expectations, according to the minutes of the August meeting released on Friday. The minutes noted the certain job categories are commanding higher wages, but that the slowdown in China has weighed on exports and a drag on economic prospects. As well, the central bank said weak oil prices continue to have a strong effect on the inflation goal. In its most recent review, the BoJ kept policy steady and its asset buying program at ¥80 trillion annually. Elsewhere, monetary policy is supporting economic growth and the weaker Australian dollar is helping, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said on Friday.

"Monetary policy is seeking to support this transition, something it can do because inflation remains low. Very low interest rates, coupled with financial institutions wanting to lend, have played a part in the improvement in conditions in some sectors," Stevens said. Stevens made the remarks in comments before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. He added that China remains a question mark as its economy continues to moderate and the global economic outlook remains complex. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.08% to 94.70. Overnight, citing the negative effects of global economic weakness on U.S. inflation, the FOMC voted to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at its current level between zero and 0.25% on Thursday.

Nearly a decade has passed since the U.S. central bank has last raised short-term rates. "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term," the FOMC said in a statement. Adopting a relatively dovish stance, Fed chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. central bank will begin monetary policy normalization when it has seen "further improvement in the labor market," and it is "reasonably confident" that inflation is moving toward its targeted goal of 2%. Yellen also noted that large drags from falling energy and import prices should dissipate in the near future allowing long-term inflation to move back toward its long-term target. Still, the Fed downgraded its median inflation forecasts at the meeting to 0.3% for the end of 2015, while lowering inflation expectations for the end of next year to 1.7%.

The Fed now expects that inflation will not reach its 2.0% target until 2018. The Fed also lowered its median forecasts for the Fed Funds Rate for the end of the year to 0.4%, from previous estimates of 0.6%. A bevy of short-term rates such as debt for credit card holders are pegged to the benchmark, which banks use to lend to other institutions on overnight loans. The Fed also lowered its rate forecasts for 2016 and 2017 to 1.7 and 1.9% respectively, representing a decline of 0.1% for each year. In addition, the FOMC said four of its members do not see a rate hike occurring in 2015, up from two in June. One member of the FOMC, Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker, dissented, recommending a 0.25% interest rate hike at the meeting.