Technical And Market Analysis By Vistabrokers

[orni308]

NZDUSD has been on a down trend and in the near future, the pair has been trading high and this is going to be highly selled off pair.

[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Is Next Move for Bulls?!..

We did not trade actively in gold with good reason, first of all, to set the record straight on the future dynamics of the yellow metal. On the one hand, the correction looked a little unfinished due to the fact that the trend line has not been achieved, while on the other – the data on the US labor market had to affect on the dynamics of prices. Here we had some surprises. Non-farm payrolls grew in January much higher than it has been predicted and December values were revised from 352 thousand up to 329. As a result, quotes lost about $ 30 from the Friday's opening price and found a support at the above-mentioned trend line of growth in November 2014 - January 2015. Moreover, here is passing a 50% correction of the last upward wave in January.

At this stage, despite a very strong technical support, it is recommended to wait for signs of growth (eg, from indicators - as the price intersection of moving average) before opening long positions. If an acknowledgment is received, the stop loss should be placed under a Friday minimum (1228.00), and the first target will be a maximum of the last 6 months - 1308 dollars per troy ounce.

USD/JPY. Dollar Hit Ceiling

Statistics published by the US Department of Labor on Friday, apparently caused the most positive emotions of market players as for the US economy health. As a result, USD/JPY quotes in a few minutes have overcome a series of restrain levels and continued to grow almost to the end of the week trading. Perhaps the only limiting factor was the achievement of the upper boundary of a graphic consolidation figure "triangle", which was formed during the two-month correction to the last wave of growth. Thus, the only thing the price should do is to pass this line of resistance, and then the maximum number of participants will

join to the movement.

Previously, we have called 120.69 a possible growth target, where the extension level 161.8% of the growth in the middle of January passes. This target remains relevant (its value is the same as another local resistance level at around 120.81), but it is not a right time for the next wave of purchases. For this is definitely worth to wait for a break of Friday's extreme values (119.20).

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Market Pulse 09.02

On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty. Today the ECB President Mario Draghi speeks, as well as the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. In Turkey opens the G20 meetings.

6:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Current - January (Japan)
6:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook - January (Japan)

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). For both indices, analysts expect a small growth, although these indices rarely have an impact on the yen. They are based on a survey of workers engaged in services.

6:40 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Carney comments about the economic situation, the real estate market, inflation etc can significantly affect the pound.

7:00 ** Trade Balance - December (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values are favorable for the currency, because they reflect the flow of money into the country.

** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
** G20 Meetings - Day 1

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Vista Brokers: Strong Labor Market Data Strengthened Expectations for Fed Rate Hike

On Friday, the dollar has gotten a support after strong employment data in the United States. Immediately after the non-farm payrolls publication US currency rose against the Japanese one from 117.22 to 118.38 yen. The EUR/USD at the end of the day has lost about 1%, dropping to $ 1.1365. Vista Brokers analysts note that jobs data, as well as a number of other, less important indicators were published more than expected and this strengthen market expectations about the Fed rate hike.

Thus, the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector in January has risen by 257,000, versus the expected 236 000. Data for December were revised with an increase from 252 000 to 329 000. In the private and business sectors of the economy the number of jobs also increased more than analysts have expected. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% month on month and 2.2% year on year, against forecasts of 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively. The participation rate has also increased.

The only negative of a large portion of statistics was an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate from 5.6% to 5.7%. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate in January will remain the same.

Experts point out that the positive labor market data is a serious ground to believe that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates in the middle of this year. Over the past three months, the US economy has created over a million jobs, and such a high result, the country has not seen since 1997. In addition, January marked the 11th straight month of job gains above 200,000, the longest streak since 1994.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Dollar Corrects after Friday's Rally

On Friday, the strong data on US labor market caused the dollar's rally against its major competitors. Of course, the growth could not last forever, so on Monday, the EUR/USD is slowly recovering. The market's focus shifted back to Greece, which confirmed its rejection of an international bailout program.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the dollar index today fell against a basket of currencies by 0.2% to 94,535. The euro has lost about 1.5% on Friday and today rose by 0.2% to $ 1.1338. The USD/JPY after the abor market data publication has refreshed its one-month high at around 119.23 and on Monday the pair lost 0.3% and dropped to 118.75 yen. To one-month-high at 1.965% on Friday has jumped the yield on 10-year US "treasuries", which today fell to 1.922%.

Recall that Friday's data showed a rebound in U.S. wages and nonfarm payrolls increasing by 257,000 in January, outstripping forecasts. This reinforced investors' hopes that the Fed will raise rates as early as June of this year.

Having taken a lead from this information in full, the market returned to the painful "Greek question." On Sunday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that Athens will not ask for extension of the financial aid program, which expires on February 28, despite the pressure from international lenders.

He also reiterated his plans to rebuild the Greek economy, which run counter to the austerity program recommended by the ECB, the EU and the IMF. Tsipras promises to raise the minimum wage, to suspend the privatization, to create new jobs.

At this stage, the new Greek government talks with creditors do not inspire confidence in the successful resolution of the situation. The market was hoping that not having achieved concessions from lenders, Athens will soft its rhetoric and offer a compromise solution, but Tsipras shows a willingness to stay the course.

On Wednesday, Greek Finance Minister Janis Varufakis will speak at an emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers and will submit proposal for the restructuring of Greek debt. So far, all the proposals of Greece international lenders reject, however today the market is set positive - many believe that as a result of the negotiations Greece will be able to reach a compromise with its lenders.

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Continues to Lose Ground

On Monday, the Australian dollar declines against the US one after Friday's strong data on the US labor market, as well as the latest statistics from China. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Sunday in China was published the weak data on the trade balance, import and export. Particularly, in January the volume of import decreased by 19.9%. Exports also fell by 3.3% against the expected growth of 5.8%. Data weighed on commodity currencies and the Asian stock market.

According to analysts, the outlook for the Australian dollar in the long term is now being reconsidered. So, the National Australia Bank lowered its forecast for Aussie at the end of 2015 to $ 0.7400 from $ 0.7800. However, experts consider a scenario in which the currency will fall below $ 0.7000.

NAB also expects at least one more rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, speaking on the presentation of the Bank of China in Sydney, preferred to avoid the issue of monetary policy, without giving the market new reasons for excitement.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. On the Frontline

Those market players who are closely monitoring the situation in the GBP/USD, surely have strategic thinking, because in this pair the defense of the dollar is the weakest. Suffice it to recall not only the current resistance trend line testing of the last seven months, but also quite specific positions of the Bank of England in monetary policy. The BOE apparently is not going to implement stimulation measures (as some other central banks did), but on the contrary is the next after the Fed on the list of rate hikes. At the same time, we can not say that technically everything is clearly, because the current correctional increase is difficult to correlate with the direction of the trend, especially since this growth is still within the long-term downtrend. But today some important data in the UK are expected, and this rise to any technical fix progress.

So, at 9.30 GMT we expect data on industrial production in the UK in December, and at 15.00 GMT – the quarterly data on GDP (unofficial) from NIESR. It is likely that if these data will be positive, quotations may again move closely to the trend line. In turn, the breakthrough of 1.5350 will mean a possible offensive full upward correction of the total descent during the period July 2014 - January 2015.

USD/JPY. Technical vs Fundamental Analysis

Current price consolidation near the resistance line, forming a side of either symmetric, or descending triangle (this is, in fact, does not matter) gives a reason to expect some developments in the USD/JPY. Moreover, the same rise in prices, which we have mentioned in the previous review, is already corrected enough to deduct this figure as a trend continuation pattern "flag". Going beyond its boundaries will be one more argument in favor of continuing an upward trend in the pair. From a fundamental point of view, the dollar is still supported by the good statistics on the US labor market and expectations of imminent interest rate increase by the Fed, which will be consistent in its actions and will not sway by insufficient rate of inflation. A nature of inflation reduce is the fall in energy prices and a matter of time.

Whatever reasons are given, the main obstacle to further growth is still the upper limit of the "triangle", and only its sustained break with overcoming level (119.20 - Friday's high) would rely on the consistent achievement of the objectives of growth. Recall, the first of them (120.69) corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of January pulse. Here goes another level of resistance (120.81) - a local extremum of December 23.

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Market Pulse 10.02

On Tuesday G20 meetings continues in Turkey. Australia has already published the NAB business confidence data, and China - the consumer price index. Britain and France today will report on changes in the volume of industrial production in December.

7:45 ** Industrial Production - December (France)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Often, the production is a small contribution to GDP, but it allows to predict the dynamics of interest rates. In France, analysts expect a small growth of the rate.

9:30 *** Industrial Production - December (UK)
9:30 ** Manufacturing Production - December (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Growth or exceeded forecasts support the pound. In December, analysts expect a slight growth of both indices.

13:20 ** FOMC Member Jeffrey Lacker Speaks - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Lacker is a voting member of the FOMC, that is, its opinion affects the monetary policy of the Committee, so his comments may cause volatility in the markets.

15:00 ** NIESR GDP Estimate - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The indicator is based on preliminary data, but it is often close to the official level of GDP, so the market pays attention to it.

15:00 ** JOLTs Job Openings - December (US)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Publication rarely has an impact on the market, but the growth of this indicator reflects an improvement in the labor market situation, showing a high demand for workers.

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Vista Brokers: This Week Key Factors for EUR/USD are Greece and Eurozone GDP

New trading week the single currency began with a slight increase after Friday lost of about 1.5% against the dollar amid positive data on the US labor market. On Monday growth did not last long, and in the middle of the day EUR/USD dropped to the lower limit of its trading range - 1.1310 amid a negativity from Greece.

Vista Brokers analysts say that in Greece markets are falling and the banking sector is on the brink of disaster. The S&P has downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Greece to B- from B with a negative outlook. Of course, it sows pessimism among investors, causing them to return to the subject of a Greek exit from the eurozone.

According to experts, the "Greek question" will play a big role this week - on Wednesday will be Eurogroup meetings, and on Thursday – the EU Economic Summit, and these events can play a big role in the negotiations. Recall that Athens sought to develop a comprehensive solution to their economic problems, offering international lenders options for restructuring the debt. However, those yet reject all proposals, insisting on extending the program of financial assistance in a tight economy.

An important factor for the euro this week will also be data on Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter, which will be released on Friday. It is expected that the GDP has risen by 0.2%. Before the publication of data analysts Barclays Bank advise to sell the euro/dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Drops Amid IEA Forecasts

On Tuesday, oil prices fall amid predictions of increasing production in the United States and the report of the International Energy Agency. Brent futures for March delivery fell to $ 58.58 per barrel, and WTI futures - to $ 52.97 per barrel.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast has put a pressure on oil prices. According to it the growth in world oil demand in the next 5 years will be only 1.2% per year. It has reminded investors about the problem of weak demand amid oversupply, which in recent months was having a strong pressure on the oil market. IEA expects prices to return above $ 70 a barrel, but it will happen no earlier than in 2020.

However, the International Energy Agency attitude to the situation in the market is quite optimistic. In their view, the market has reached its bottom, and now oil may begin to rise, though very restrained pace. The growth rate of oil supply in the world until 2020 will amount to 860 thousand barrels per day, whereas in 2014 the increase was 1.8 million.

Recall that since the middle of last week, oil prices grew fast after it became known that the number of people working on the rigs in the United States greatly reduced - to the minimum amount since December 2011. Earlier this week it became known that OPEC raised its forecasts for global demand in 2015 to 92.32 million barrels per day (20 barrels compared with the previous forecast). So on Monday the oil market has also increased.

It is also worth noting that Citigroup analysts do not endorse the IEA views that oil prices have reached the bottom, and expect reduction of up to 20 dollars per barrel. Recent price increasing they call a false breakout trend. Experts have lowered their forecasts for 2015 for WTI from $ 55 to $ 46 per barrel and for Brent - from $ 63 to $ 54 per barrel.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

AUD / USD. Reduction Targets are Worked out. What is Next?

We have fixed a rebound from achieved virtually at all significant time intervals corresponding resistance lines of current downward price channels. So channel lines were tested in the long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes, which led to profit-taking by some market players due to the achievement of target levels. Note that the last powerful reduction wave occurred when the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting have been published, and it became known that RBA had surprisingly decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. Some experts do not rule out a further decrease in the coming months, but it seems that the market has already taken this factor into account. Moreover, one can not deny the fact that sooner or later, energy prices, will finally grow up, thereby supporting inflation. The sooner it happens, the

less chance of further easing by the RBA will remain.

Thus, it is time to cut short positions, and probably to hold hand, responding to coming market data. Among important data we can name tomorrow's publications of unemployment rate and employment change in 00.30 GMT. As expected, the unemployment rate in January has rose to 6.2%, while the number of jobs fell by 4.7 thousand. It is recommended to wait for the market reaction to the statistics, before setting any targets. With all of this, from a technical point of view quotes are now tending to achieve resistance lines, ie, to growth.

EUR / USD. It is Greece again

During the last trading weeks EUR/USD quotes did not undergo significant changes. So, after reaching minimum values for more than eleven years (1.1096), the bearish pressure eased somewhat, and now we have so called range trades. While we can not say for sure that the correction is complete, because even in such cases the minimum target level correction (38.2%) of the last large-scale declines in December and January, has not been reached. A tension is feed by the fact that so far the new Greek government can not find common ground with the euro zone leaders. First of all, we are talking about the current program of financial aid for the country. Greece in the person of Prime Minister Tsipras apparently refuses to fulfill its terms, at the same time wanting to get the other loan.

Today, finance ministers of the euro zone will meet on this occasion, which is very important not only from the point of view of the further pair dynamics, but in general, in the context of the fate of Greece as a member of the euro zone and the probability of default in the country. Good news certainly will support the single currency, which may lead quotes to 1.1650, where is the above-mentioned correction 38.2%.

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Market Pulse 11.02

On Wednesday, the economic calendar is almost empty, and the only event that can seriously affect the markets is Eurogroup meetings, where some ways to solve the situation in Greece may be identified. In Japan today, the markets do not work, as the country celebrates National Foundation Day. In the United States during the day will be published a number of data on oil reserves, which can affect the commodity markets.

15:30 ** Crude Oil Inventories - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in the level of crude oil reserves in barrels. This indicator is the benchmark of demand level, as well as a good driver for the oil market.

18:01 ** 10-y Bond Auction - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). US Treasury allocates its debt obligations. 10-year bonds are the reference in terms of reflecting the demand and market sentiment. Decline in yield is positive for the currency.

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Vista Brokers: EUR/USD Continues to Swing

On Tuesday some new facts on Greece negotiations with international creditors became known. Athens offers to save 70% of the current loan program conditions, as well as to attract short-term funding in the amount of 10 billion euros to avoid a credit crunch and buy some time for negotiations.

Vista Brokers analysts note that amid this news, European stock markets has recovered. US dollar and US "treasuries" yield got stronger, thanks to the growing investor confidence that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Major US stock indexes on Tuesday also showed growth.

As for the EUR/USD, it has continued to "swing". First fell to $ 1.1275 pressurized with concerned investors, and then went back above $ 1.13 after reports of a new stage of negotiations.

Analysts say that today's meeting of the Eurogroup is extremely important event for the market, because some decisions on Greece can be identified, and some comments may be given.

"Greek problem" should be resolved in a short time because on February 28 the program of financial aid ends, and on 1 March Athens will be left without help of lenders. The situation in the money market of the country is critical - the yield of Greek bonds on Monday jumped to 21.74%, the highest since July 2014. If yields remain at such a high level the country will not be available to incur debts.

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Ignored Strong Statistics

On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar rose against the US dollar to 0.7797, but quickly returned to Tuesday's closing level - 0.7770. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the positive statistics published by night, could not give Aussie an impetus to growth, as globally the currency is pressured by lower prices for oil and copper.

In particular, it became known that the consumer sentiment index from Wespac and Melbourne Institute rose in February from 93.2 to 100.7, the first time since February 2014 exceeded the level of 100. The volume of mortgage lending in December also rose more than expected and much better than November values. On a monthly basis loans increased by 2.7%, and year over year - by 4.5%. However, analysts believe that the volume of loans has increased, mainly due to speculative investment in real estate.

This week, the Australian dollar may have a good "shake". Tomorrow Australia will publish a number of important data on employment and on inflation expectations. Also within the "currency week" the RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will speak (Wednesday, 22.00 GMT), and the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak in front of a parliamentary committee on regular hearings on monetary policy (Thursday, 22.30 GMT).

Tomorrow's stats unlikely to be on the side of the Aussie - analysts expect that in January the unemployment rate in Australia rose from 6.1% to 6.2%, while the number of employees decreased due to cuts in production. According to forecasts of the RBA, unemployment in the country will rise gradually to 6.5% and will remain close to this level of the entire 2016, and only in 2017 will fall to previous levels.

It is likely that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens in his speech will give gloomy forecasts for the Australian economy, supporting market expectations of further interest rate cuts.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Final Warning

Bears have made the final warning to everybody who continues to persevere and hold long positions even after previously indicated support line was overcomed by the price. The last line of customers defense (correctional Fibo level 61.8% from the growth in January – 1220) is currently being tested by the price. The decline is orderly and remains within the downtrend channel. In recent days, world stock indices receive a significant support that is reflected in the demand for gold, which, given its status of a safe haven, walks in opposition with these indices.

It is recommended to refrain from taking action in the market, waiting for appropriate signals to make an informed decision. So, we can expect continued decline in case of moving the price below current levels, where the mentioned correction Fibonacci level locates, because in this case we will have no arguments for up scenario. On the other hand, only a break of the current downward channel upper limit will give a reason to expect continuation of growth, where the first target is the January high of 1,308 dollars per troy ounce.

GBP / USD. Crouch Start

When the asset's market find a kind of price equilibrium, the situation may drastically change overnight, while sometimes left wondering what exactly it will be connected with. It is not always necessary to search for logic in it, but there are of course some through scenarios. Actual apparent consensus is one of those occasions when it's time to prepare for important changes, and today's publication of the Bank of England quarterly inflation report is a reason for scales to swing in one direction or another. Moreover, the subsequent press conference led by the Committee on Monetary Policy chairman Mark Carney may set the record straight on the question of possible changes in interest rates. Note that this question is key for the market, determining the direction of the asset.

It is recommended to wait for the aforesaid events (10.30 GMT) and be ready to work on the next breakthrough levels of support (1.5195) and resistance (local extremum 1.5300 and correctional level 50% from the decline in December 2014 - January 2015 - 1.5350). In case of breaking the resistance line, the first target of growth will be 1.5465 (a correction 61.8% from said pulse).

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Vista Brokers: Greece Remains Suspended

On Wednesday, EUR/USD dropped in anticipation of the Eurogroup meeting and the discussion of the "Greek problem". In general, the pair remained in the range of 1.1270 - 1.1350, being under pressure from the lack of agreement on the restructuring of Greece's debt. Due to the uncertainty US stock markets were falling. Dow Jones and S & P 500 declined late in the evening, and only Nasdaq rose due to Apple shares. Apple has become the first company worth more than $700 billion.

Vista Brokers analysts say that on the eve of the Eurogroup press conferenc, the market waited. Traders tried to analyze the expression of the euro zone's "first persons" in order to understand what lies beyond Greece. Eurogroup President Jeroen Deysselblum earlier on Wednesday assured that no decision will be accepted at the meeting. The EU Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici insisted that the place of Greece is in the euro zone, and everybody needs to find a compromise. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble gave no specific comments, just saying that Athens is only to decide whether it will remain in the program or not.

As the market has already laid the absence of a decision by Greece in prices, the EUR / USD remained calm after it became known that the Eurogroup had not marked anything concrete. According Deysselblum, during the meeting were held constructive discussions with the Greek authorities, and some progress has been achieved. However, it is too little to say about the general solution.

Analysts remind that negotiations will be continued on the next scheduled meeting of the Eurogroup on February 16. Perhaps, then, some sort of statement will be made.

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Market Pulse 12.02

Today, the economic calendar is saturated with important information. Early in the morning data on the labor market in Australia has already been published. The EU economic summit and the European Council meeting may clarify some points for Greece. Bank of England's inflation report will likely impact on the pound, and weekly data on unemployment claims in the United States - on the dollar.

10:00 ** Industrial Production - December (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Growth or exceeding the forecast is often favorable for the currency, but in conditions of increased volatility due to worries about Greece, the market can ignore this data.

10:30 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - February
10:30 *** BOE Inflation Report - February
10:30 ** BOE Inflation Letter - February

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The BOE inflation report and inflation letter will attract a market's attention, because the inflation rate is one of the landmarks of the central bank's monetary policy. Investors await from the Bank of England some hints that interest rates may be raised.

12:00 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - February (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Given that the ECB has recently launched an ambitious program of quantitative easing, nobody expects Draghi hints at new measures of economy stimulation. Thus the head of the European regulator may comment on inflation and economic growth and this, of course, will affect the euro.

13:30 *** Retail Sales - January (USA)
13:30 *** Core Retail Sales - January (USA)
13:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - January (USA)
13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - February (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Recently, information on the US labor market is extremely optimistic and some new positive data can provide significant support to the dollar. With regard to the volume of retail sales in January, analysts expect lower indices.

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Vista Brokers: Yen Rises Amid Uncertainty in Greece

During the Asian session on Thursday the yen rose against its major counterparts, supported by demand for risk-free assets. Vista Brokers analysts note that the uncertainty in Greece remains, as at yesterday's Eurogroup meeting was not made any decisions. After six-hour talks euro zone finance ministers pledged to continue the constructive dialogue with representatives of the IMF and the ECB later, so the "Greek problem" still continues to put pressure on markets.

Recall that the current loan agreement with Greece ends on February 28, and the new government flatly refuses to renew it, demanding renegotiation of agreement on austerity measures and reforms. The next round of negotiations will be held on February 16.

Amid this the euro fell to 136.06 yen from 136.53 on Wednesday and to 1.1309 dollars from 1.1336. The US dollar fell from 120.47 to 120.26 yen. The Australian dollar fell to 90.05 yen from 92.97. An additional pressure on the Aussie had the labor market data, published in the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Thus, the unemployment rate in Australia rose significantly stronger than expected to 6.4% vs. 6.2% (13-year highs). The number of employees was also greatly reduced - by 12.2 thousand instead of the expected 4.7 thousand. It has reinforced investors' expectations of further RBA monetary policy easing.

Analysts say that the growth of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was limited by the fact that today the market is expected important US statistics, which can once again confirm the recovery of the US economy. These are retail sales and unemployment claims.

Although demand for the yen was caused rather by safe asset searching than positive on Japan, we note that on the eve was published statistics in core machinery orders. In December, these orders increased by 8.3%, well above the 2.3% expected by analysts. Despite the fact that this index is very volatile, it is considered as an indicator of companies' capital investment in Japan, so its growth is favorable.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

USD / JPY. Bank of Japan Shows Correct Yen Rate to Market

Yesterday's downward movement in half figure looked very picturesque and dramatic, causing mild panic in bulls ranks. It was the result of some Bank of Japan representatives statements regarding the undesirability of further national currency devaluation and things like that. Apparently, the controller carefully monitors price changes, making adjustments to the yen value, using something like verbal interventions at the right time. Thus, now we do not expect more monetary stimulus incentives that cuts the ground from under the feet of those who are still counting that Japan will continue at any cost devalue the currency in favor of exporters. This means that mentioned earlier scenario after a graphic border of more than two months "triangle" breakthrough is up in the air again.

The primary target we had set earlier (120.69), was not been formally worked out, but the price was close to it. In any case, we have to fix a result of long positions, since quotes are back into boundaries of abovesaid figure, and thus we go into "sleep mode". We need to give the market an opportunity to choose a direction in new conditions.

GBP / USD. Rubicon was Passed

So, we see a long-awaited breakthrough of a long-term downtrend line, and the price has overcome the next important resistance level (1.5350), which increases the likelihood of further growth of the pair. Yesterday, the publication of the Bank of England quarterly report has done its job and became a foundation for a powerful movement to the north, which was confirmed with trend indicators.

We continue to hold yesterday's long positions opened for 1.5300 breakout with abovesaid target at 1.5465, where is the correctional Fibo level 61.8% of the descending wave in December 2014 - January 2015. Also note that in this area goes Fibonacci extension level 261.8% of the pulse on February 10-11. Using Fibo extensions often gives an opportunity to successfully build targets from the initial pulse, which is taken as 100%, and ttargets are set at 161.8%, 261.8% and 423.6% of the basic pulse. Also, this level is attractive because here is the target of the graphical turning figure "inverted head and shoulders" implementation.

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Market Pulse 13.02

On Friday, European countries will publish preliminary data on changes in GDP. In the afternoon, the market's attention will draw data on manufacturing sales in Canada and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the United States.

7:00 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Germany)
9:00 ** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Italy)
10:00 ** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Greece)
10:00 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Preliminary GDP data could put pressure on the single currency, as in many countries, as well as in the euro area, growth expected to be very weak. In Italy, analysts expect lower annual rate.

10:00 ** Trade Balance - December (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between the value of exported and imported goods. Growth or exceeded forecast is positive for the currency.

13:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - December (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Volumes of industrial supplies in Canada are falling, and it's a bad sign for the national currency. In December, analysts expect a new index drop, this time by 0.9%.

13:30 ** Import Prices - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in prices of imported goods for the month. May be an early warning sign of inflationary trends change, or their confirmation.

15:00 *** Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Recently, the American statistics often gives pleasant surprises. Possible, the University of Michigan index will also show in February more significant growth than the market expects. In this case, the dollar may receive additional support.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Respites amid Weak US Data

On Thursday, the US dollar was down against the yen and the euro after the release of disappointing US statistics. Vista Brokers analysts note that the data which were much weaker than forecasts indicate that the US economic recovery is not balanced yet. And this, in turn, casts doubt on this year tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

So, in January retail sales in the US fell by 0.8% vs. expected 0.4%. Excluding auto sales index fell by 0.9% vs. 0.4%, while sales excluding cars and fuel rose by 0.2% vs. 0.4%.

In addition, during a week the number of unemployment claims in the United States rose by 25,000 to 304,000, higher than the forecast 290 000. For the dollar it was a serious blow. Immediately after the release of statistics the US currency fell from 119.70 to 119.44 yen. Euro against the dollar rose to 1.1358 dollars from 1.1331 earlier and continued the upward movement.

Analysts say that for the euro it is only a temporary break in the long-term downtrend. The fate of Greece is still unresolved and this will put pressure on the single currency as long as this question remains critical. The next round of talks on Greece will be on Monday.

It is worth noting another important Thursday's occasion. The Sweden's central bank has unexpectedly introduced negative interest rates on deposits for commercial banks (-0.1%) and announced that it would spend 10 billion Swedish crowns (1 billion euros) to purchase government bonds with maturities of up to 5 years. After that, the Swedish krona fell against the dollar to a minimum since April 2009.

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Vista Brokers: Stock Markets Rise amid Ukraine Ceasefire

On Thursday the US index S & P 500 has reached its highest level this year, and the Nasdaq index has reached its fifteen-year maximum. European indices also showed significant growth. On Friday, the baton continued to Asian markets.

Vista Brokers analysts note several factors that contributed to the growth in the stock markets: a ceasefire in Ukraine, reduction in interest rates in Sweden and hope for the "Greek problem" to be solved on Monday. In the first place, it is, of course, a ceasefire, as the situation in the Donbass remains a serious geopolitical risk.

The last few days, these factors were the main sources of concern, but yesterday's 17-hour negotiations of the "Norman Quartet" in Minsk ended with the signing of the agreement about ceasefire and exchange of hostages. Greece is still one of the main source of disturbance in the financial markets, but many investors believe that on Monday, at a regular Eurogroup meeting, international creditors will reach an agreement with Athens. Hopes for a successful resolution of conflicts, both military and diplomatic, brought positive sentiment on the stock markets.

So, at the end of Thursday Dow Jones industrial average rose by 0.62%, the S & P 500 by 0.96%, the index of high-tech NASDAQ by 1.18%. European stocks also showed good growth. Stoxx Europe 600 rose by 0.75%, DAX added 1,56%, CAC - 1,00%, FTSE - 0,15%, Athex Composite - 6,73%. Today, Asian markets rose after the European ones. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan rose today by 1.6%.

Positive came to markets not only from Ukraine and Greece, but quite unexpectedly from Sweden, where the central bank has lowered on Thursday its repo rate to a negative value, and launched a program of quantitative easing. Amid this the Swedish krona fell against the dollar by 2%. Analysts state that Sweden joined the countries that have adopted additional measures to stimulate the economy after the ECB had started its QE.

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Vista Brokers: Brent Returned to $60

Last week the Brent crude oil gained 4%, returning to the level of December 2014. Vista Brokers analysts note that the April Brent futures are now trading at $ 60.23 a barrel. March futures on Thursday rose by more than 4% to $ 57.05. WTI crude oil is also rising in price and at the time of writing is trading at $ 51.98 a barrel.

Analysts note that the week was extremely volatile for the oil market, which has been under pressure from the military conflict in Ukraine and economic problems in Greece the same as the other financial markets. These two factors put pressure on markets earlier this week, but after the talks in Minsk, which ended with the ceasefire agreement, the disturbance died down.

Another important factor which has supported oil was the fact that the largest US manufacturer of shale oil Apache Corp announced a significant reduction in the cost of development of new deposits.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Markets Believe in Greek

On Monday morning, the euro rose on expectations that today's Eurogroup meeting will bring a solution of a "Greek problem". Time is running out, because February 28 is the deadline for the current bailout program from creditors: ECB, EU and IMF. Decision must be made, otherwise the default is inevitable.

Vista Brokers analysts say that on the eve Athens has expressed confidence that today the compromise will be reached, while emphasizing that they disagree with austerity measures. Whether creditors will accept a position of Tsipras and whether they will find a way to restructure Greece's debts so that it suites both parties? We will know it tonight when the Eurogroup meeting comes to an end, and euro zone finance ministers will take part in a press conference.

On the eve of the meeting the single currency, which has been drifting between $ 1.1262-1.1534 during past few weeks, increased by 0.2% to $ 1.1411. Whatever decision is taken today by the Eurogroup, the euro will be affected to a large extent. Although if you remember the previous extraordinary session, investors have taken a lead from its results before the press conference.

Positive expectations about Greece have an impact on stock markets. Today in Japan, the market is at the level of 8-year high. The Nikkei added 0.5% and found itself at the highest level since 2007. Recall that US stock indexes have completed the past week with a significant increase: S & P 500 reached a historic high, and Nasdaq - a 15-year peak.

The market pay so much attention to the "Greek question" decision for a good reason. The Greek exit from the euro zone which can happen, if the problem is not resolved, would set a precedent for other countries which also have claims to the "troika" of creditors. Most likely Spain may pick up the baton of Athens. In this country there are also many people dissatisfied with the policy of austerity and a political party like the Greek "SYRIZA" has a chance to come to power.

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Market Pulse 16.02

On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty - all investors' attention will be drawn to Eurogroup meetings, where a decision on Greece can be taken. Recall that during the previous meeting last week, Greek authorities have failed to reach a compromise with international lenders. In the United States today Presidents' Day is celebrated.

10:00 ** Trade Balance - December (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Trade balance is a difference between the value of exported and imported goods for the month. Growth or exceeded the forecast are favorable for the currency.

14:45 ** ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase - February (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Based on this index, investors and market observers conclude on the extent of securities which the European Central Bank buy on its balance sheet.

19:00 ** Eurogroup Press Conference - February (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Press conference may disclose any details of the talks, though their results, market participants are likely to be known before.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Ignored Positive Statistics

On Friday, the EUR/USD has traded in a narrow price range of 20 points, and even the positive statistics could not get it out of balance. Vista Brokers analysts note that the data on GDP changes for the 4th quarter in European countries, mainly, were stronger than expected. The euro zone economy grew by 0.3% mom and by 0.9% yoy vs. 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. The German GDP showed an increase by 0.7% mom and 1.6% yoy, which also exceeded forecasts. More than expected data were released in Italy and Portugal.

Recall that Spain has released its GDP report two weeks ago, showing quarterly growth of 0.7%, which is the best value for the last seven years. The Dutch economy grew by 0.5% qoq.

In contrast to the EUR/USD, European stock markets have reacted to the positive statistics. The German DAX index for the first time exceeded the level of 11, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose by 0.60%. Local indexes in France and Greece have also increased, although in Q4 GDP of these countries has slowed.

Analysts note that the single currency on Friday was under pressure ahead of the meeting of the Eurogroup, which will be held today. Market participants are worried about Greece, where on February 28 the program of financial aid will complete and the government of Alexis Tsipras refuses to renew it. The new terms of cooperation for international creditors and Greece can be taken at today's meeting of eurozone finance ministers.

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Vista Brokers: Weak Japanese GDP Weighed on Oil

On Monday, oil drops again after a short growth the day before. Analysts Vista Brokers note that the April futures price today fell by 0.31% to $ 61.33 per barrel. March futures price for WTI fell by 0.21% to $ 52.67 per barrel.

Experts point out that weak preliminary data on the GDP of Japan, which came in the night from Sunday to Monday put a pressure on the oil. Thus, in the fourth quarter, Japan's economy grew by 0.6% qoq vs. 0.9%. GDP annualized grew by 2.2%, but the market was expecting a more significant growth - by 3.7%. Nominal gross domestic product also showed growth below the forecast. Slowdown in the Japanese economy, which is a major exporter of petroleum products, brought pessimism to the oil market.

Recall that last week the "black gold" suddenly rose above $ 60 a barrel after signs of a possible slowdown in production volumes, including the reduction of oil supplies from Libya. In addition, the American company Baker Hughes announced the reduction of the number of rigs in the USA to a minimum since 2011.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Talks on Greece Deadlocked

On Monday, EUR/USD went back above 1.14 amid positive expectations about a Eurogroup meeting and a possibility of a "Greek problem" decision. Vista Brokers analysts note that the single currency was also supported by the Bundesbank monthly report, which was full of positive regarding the German economy. In particular, the Bank pointed out that it "understands" the reasons for the revision of forecasts for economic growth in Germany upward, because at the end of 2014 it has "dramatically increased."

On the eve of the meeting of eurozone finance ministers stock markets rose. World stock index MSCI has increased to a maximum of 22 September amid talks on Greece and peace deal in Ukraine. Japan's Nikkei was close to the mark in July 2007, S & P 500 has reached a record level on Friday. Recall that US markets yesterday did not work due to the celebration of President's Day.

After the Eurogroup meetings market sentiment changed in the opposite. Agreement on Greece has not been reached, and therefore after 10 days the country will be left without assistance from international lenders. Head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum said that euro zone finance ministers were disappointed with the position of Greece, for which the best option now would be an extension of aid programs, as well as structural reforms that it provides. Deysselblum said that Athens must submit a request for an extension no later than Friday. Probably, this day another meeting of the Eurogroup will be held.

Amid investors' disappointing EUR/USD has dropped from 1.1390 to 1.1330, where the pair received support.

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Market Pulse 17.02

On Tuesday, the German ZEW institute will publish several important indices in Germany and the euro area as a whole. A portion of interesting statistics will be released in the UK. The whole day is rather saturated with news. Today the meeting of European finance ministers is also held.

9:30 *** Consumer Price Index - January (UK)
9:30 ** Core CPI - January (UK)
9:30 ** Retail Price Index - January (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Input - January (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output- January (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output Core - January (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The most important indicator in this list is the consumer price index, and its value can have a strong impact on the pound. Analysts expect that inflation in the UK in January has slowed by 0.9%.

10:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - February (Germany)
10:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - February (Germany)
10:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - February (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts' expectations regarding to ZEW indices is very optimistic. After the eurozone and some individual member states in the 4th quarter of 2014 showed GDP growth exceeded forecasts, strong ZEW index may favorably affect the single currency. However, it is worth noting that the situation in Greece is now much more likely to affect the euro.

13:30 ** Empire State Manufacturing Index - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The indicator is based on a survey of manufacturers from the district of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. Values above 0 reflects the increase in activity. In January, the index was at 9.95.

15:00 ** NAHB Housing Market Index - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Index, measured by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reflecting the confidence of developers in the housing market. In February, the growth of the rate is expected.

17:15 *** SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks - February (Switzerland)

Strong impact on the market (CHF). Jordan's statements in which investors will be looking for hints on the future strategy of the central bank of Switzerland, can have a significant impact on the Swiss franc.

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Vista Brokers: Hope for Greece Gave Way to Disappointment

Tuesday morning stock markets fall amid unsuccessful negotiations on Greece at yesterday's Eurogroup's meetings. Market participants hoped that as a result of these talks at least some preliminary agreements will be achieved, but it has not happened. So, again, we have uncertainty and fear that Greece will refuse to pay debts and come out of the eurozone.

Vista Brokers analysts note that Asian stock indexes Nikkei and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan today have lost by 0.1%. European indices are expect to show a significant reduction. The euro fell against the dollar to $ 1.1322, compared with Monday's $ 1.14295.

At the Eurogroup meeting Greece provided a "rough" version of solving the debt problem, which ministers of finance rejected and called unacceptable. This option involves the creation of a temporary assistance program for 4-6 months in order to (as Greek Finance Minister Janis Varufakis said) achieve "meaningful, sustainable and long-term agreement between Greece, Europe and the IMF."

In turn, the Eurogroup tried to convince Athens that the most appropriate option in the current situation will be the program of financial assistance continuation and providing structural reforms that it implies. These reforms are a stumbling block, as one of the "Syriza" and Alexis Tsipras campaign promises was the Greek refusal of austerity measures prescribed by the "troika" of creditors (ECB, EU and IMF).

By the way, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, during a press conference said that the provision of funds to Greece is only possible if the country complies with all prescriptions. That is, if Athens refuse to carry out unpleasant reforms, it will get no more money from the IMF.

Head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum said that euro zone finance ministers were disappointed with the position of Greece. He said that Athens must submit a request for an extension no later than Friday. Probably, this day will be held another meeting of the Eurogroup.

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Rose Slightly vs US Dollar

On Tuesday, AUD/USD broke the mark of 0.7800 for the first time in the last five days. As Vista Brokers analysts say, factors of support for the Australian dollar have become quite neutral protocols of RBA meetings, as well as the overall US dollar decline.

Recall that at the last meeting the RBA has unexpectedly lowered interest rates, so that market participants expect that the protocols will be very "soft" and searched there for hints on further measures to stimulate the economy. However, the minutes showed neutral mood. It was noted that the recent decline in the Australian dollar is favorable for economic growth of Australia, and that an even lower rate may even lead to a temporary increase in inflation.

With regard to the reduction of the dollar, the DXY index has fallen on Tuesday from 94.34 to 94.29, supporting greenback's competitors. Resistance for AUD / USD can be 0.7800 or 0.7830 levels and support - 0.7720 or 0.7690.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 18.02

Wednesday is extremely rich in important information. In Japan, the central bank will announce an interest rate decision and hold a traditional press conference. In the UK the data on the labor market and the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting will be published. Also interesting statistics will be released in the United States. The day will end with a FOMC meeting minutes publication.

6:30 *** BOJ Press Conference - February (Japan)

*** Overnight Call Rate - February (Japan)
*** Annual Rise in Monetary Base - February (Japan)
*** Monetary Policy Statement - February (Japan)

Strong impact on the market (JPY). The Bank of Japan does not tell the time of decisions on overnight call rate, rise in monetary base and monetary policy statement publication. This information can greatly affect the yen, as will give an idea about the future strategy of the Japanese regulator.

9:30 *** Claimant Count Change - January (UK)
9:30 ** Claimant Count Rate - January (UK)
9:30 ** Unemployment Rate - January (UK)
9:30 ** Average Earnings Index - January (UK)
9:30 ** Employment Change - January (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Labor market is one of the main landmarks for the central bank, so these indicators are influential. The most important indicator of this series is claimant count change, and forecasts for it are rather optimistic.

9:30 *** MPC Meeting Minutes - February (UK)
9:30 *** MPC Official Bank Rate Votes - February (UK)
9:30 *** MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). At the previous meeting the Bank of England has left interest rates and the amount of the asset repurchase the same, confirming its attitude to the tightening of monetary policy over time. Market participants can learn from the minutes more about the mood of the Committee.

13:30 *** Building Permits - January (USA)
13:30 ** Housing Starts - January (USA)
13:30 *** Producer Price Index - January (USA)
13:30 ** Core PPI - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The number of permits and housing starts reflect the health of the housing market and the economy as a whole. Analysts expect growth in permits, but reducing of new foundations. As for the producer price index, expectations are not too optimistic.

14:15 ** Capacity Utilization Rate- January (USA)
14:15 ** Industrial Production - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The level of capacity utilization allows us to estimate how much free capacity is in the economy, or whether it is "overheated". Note that the index came close to the mark of 80%, which is considered dangerous for the development of inflationary pressures.

19:00 *** FOMC Meeting Minutes - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting allows to more fully understand the reasoning of the committee during the meeting, as well as help market players to understand the next steps the Fed.

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Vista Brokers: Fate of Greece Can be Decided on Friday

On Tuesday, the euro was able to regain ground lost after yesterday's Eurogroup meeting, where no decision on Greece was made. Reaching a daily low at 1.1336, EUR / USD turned and moved up. Among supporting factors Vista Brokers analysts call investors' hopes that the "Greek problem" will be solved on Friday, as well as positive data on ZEW indices.

In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index grew weaker than forecast, but strong enough compared with January, and the ZEW survey index (current situation) showed an increase to 45.5 vs. 30.0. In the euro zone economic sentiment index rose to 52.7, while analysts were expecting the growth to 51.3.

As for Greece, the new round of talks will be held on Friday, February 20th, and this day is also the deadline, in which Athens can apply for an extension of the bailout program. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called the conditions under which international lenders have put his country, a blackmail, since financial aid is impossible without reforms, including austerity measures. Yesterday at a press conference after the Eurogroup meeting the IMF chief Christine Lagarde has once again reminded: without reforms Greece will not get the money.

Despite the tense rhetoric of parties, market participants remain optimistic and believe that on Friday Athens will possibly come to some agreement with the creditors. In any case, all the negotiators insist that Greece will remain in the eurozone.

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Vista Brokers: BoJ Left its Monetary Policy Unchanged

On Tuesday, USD/JPY has returned to the level of 119 amid the US Treasury yields growth and weak statistics on Japan. The pair showed growth for the first time in the last four trading sessions. Vista Brokers analysts note that the dollar rally against the yen was also caused by investors' confidence that the Fed will raise interest rates much sooner than the Bank of Japan.

Today, market participants were expected the results of the Bank of Japan meeting, where the regulator announced the decision on interest rates and the increase in the monetary base, as well as they were expected for BoJ comments on monetary policy and a press conference. Predictably there was no any surprises - the Japanese regulator has left its monetary policy unchanged. The Bank of Japan has confirmed its continued focus on economy stimulating, keeping rates at a minimum level of 0.10% and the asset purchase program at a record - 80 trillion yen.

Recall that on the night of Sunday to Monday were published data on the GDP of Japan, showed growth in the 4th quarter. Actual data were worse than expected, and it has put pressure on the yen, but on the second thought, the annual GDP growth of 2.2% is a good result, considering that in the previous quarter, the economy has slowed down by 2.3%. However, analysts were expecting an even more impressive performance – 3.7% growth.

Preliminary data on changes in GDP (quarterly) and nominal gross domestic product were also worse than expected. Judging by the latest macroeconomic data, Japan will have to overcome many more obstacles to return to sustained economic growth and indicators of previous years. So that tightening of monetary policy in the near future just is not expected.

Related comment BOJ was quite neutral, but analysts see improved mood compared to the previous month. Thus, the regulator said that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace and recalled the inflation target of 2%, which the country plans to achieve in the next financial year. "Industrial output is picking up," the BOJ said. That was a brighter view than last month, when it said output was "bottoming out."

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Remains within Narrow Price Range

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar was trading at 0.7823 against the US dollar compared to 0.7799 on Tuesday evening. As Vista Brokers analysts say, the AUD/USD “swing” within a narrow price range continues.

Recently, an economic activity in Australia shows clear signs of slowing down. So, at the end of last week the disappointing data on unemployment was published, which in January rose by 0.3% immediately. The number of employed in the first month of the year decreased by 12.2 thousand, which is also much worse than expected. On the eve Greg Gibbs, a currency RBS strategist in Singapore noted that the rating of Australia may be revised and given the growing economic instability, the country can hardly expect to maintain AAA rating.

Australia's central bank insists that the low rate of the Australian dollar is useful for the economy.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Level Test

We continue to pay attention to the current situation in gold again and again. At this stage, the minimum program is executed – the reducing target is achieved (1197.25). It is a support line connecting a number of local minimums, marked during the previous few months. As a result, we can contemplate a fairly powerful rebound and, quite possibly, this is where the bulls can start a counteroffensive. However, in order to consider the possibility of buying, the price is to demonstrate the seriousness of intentions.

So, it is not recommended to take active steps at this stage. At the same time, it is worth considering the possibility of sales in case of a break below 1197.25 in order to achieve the yearly minimum - 1167 dollars. Purchases will be possible only in the case of relevant prerequisites appearance in the form of line of resistance breakthrough and the subsequent formation of growth signs in the form of gradually higher lows and highs.

EUR / USD. Market's Attention is Directed to ECB "Minutes" and Proud Greeks

After reaching eleven-year lows (1.1096) in January market players seem to have left the EUR / USD at rest, and some positions were closed. This led to a short time growth of the quotes, and a peak of buyers' activity was at 1.1532 . Now the pair has found a balance, moving in a narrow trading range. The nearest significant support is 1.1270, resistance - 1.1535. Fundamentally, the market continues to be uncertainty regarding the extension of funding Greece. Its representatives are still unable to find a compromise with the international lenders. Nevertheless, some progress is seen, because there is already a formal request to Brussels to extend the current program for 4-6 months (the period which is needed to develop a new program). We also can not forget about the possible impact of the minutes of the last ECB meeting publication (12.30 GMT), where the discussion of adopted at the January meeting quantitative easing program (60 billion euros per month) will be described in detail.

Thus, aforesaid levels of support (1.1270) and resistance (1.1535) remain delimiters between bulls and bears, and there is something like a buffer zone between them, which means that the recommendation to work on this range exit. As a possible target in the event of rising scenario, we name 1.1655 (38.2% correction from the reduction in December 2014 - January 2015), and then - 1.1800, where is the correction of 50%, and 161.8% extension of the upward momentum in late January - early February. Breakdown of support will lead to January lows testing (1.1096).

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Market Pulse 19.02

After an intensive Wednesday, on Thursday the economic calendar looks quite empty, but during the US trading session we expect some several important publications. In particular, the weekly data on unemployment claims in the US will be released, as well as the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

9:00 ** ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The report may contain some hints on future ECB's strategy, so the market pays attention to it.

11:00 ** CBI Industrial Order - February (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The index of industrial orders from the British Confederation of Industrialists is a leading indicator of economic health. Its growth is favorable for the currency, and in February, analysts expect positive values.

13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - February (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). In recent years, this indicator has gained great influence, as it is one of the benchmarks for the monetary policy of the Fed. Analysts expect moderate values for the reporting week, however, the statistics may surprise us.

15:00 ** Flash Consumer Confidence - February (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The indicator is still at a low level, but in February a slight increase is expected, which may have a positive impact on the single currency.

15:00 *** Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The index is based on a survey of manufacturing companies in the region. Values greater than zero reflect an improvement in business conditions and the forecast for February is very positive, so that the publication could support the dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Weak US Statistics did not Prevent Euro from Falling

On Friday a new round of Greece talks with international lenders will be held, and until these negotiations end, the EUR/USD will remain volatile. Vista Brokers analysts say that amid pessimistic expectations of investors on Wednesday, the euro was down, despite the fact that in the US a series of weak statistics was published.

Thus, the volume of building permits in January fell by 0.7% (forecast + 1%), and the number of housing starts – by 2% (forecast -1.7%). The producer price index fell twice stronger than analysts had expected, and the same index, but excluding prices for food and energy showed a drop of 0.1% instead of growth by the same amount. Weaker than expected also was the data on changes in the volume of industrial production and capacity utilization.

However, the single currency remained under pressure looking forward for the decision of the "Greek problem". Recall that on Friday is the deadline for filing an application for an extension of Greece existing international bailout, which will be completed at the end of the month. Analysts say that perhaps Athens will ask about the short-term extension of the program today. Such an action would help the government to buy time for new negotiations that will eventually lead to the cancellation of austerity measures, as Greece hopes.

Earlier, lenders have rejected proposals by the Greek authorities, but everyone understands that time is running out, and therefore, it is likely that a compromise will still be found in the near future.

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Vista Brokers: Fed Minutes did not Meet Market Expectations

On Wednesday evening, the US dollar fell against its major counterparts after the publication of the Federal Committee on Open Market (FOMC) meetings minutes. Vista Brokers analysts point out that market participants expected a "hard" tone, but these expectations were not fulfilled.

In the minutes of the meeting on January 27-28 was marked that some FOMC members had expressed confidence that a premature rise in interest rates could hurt the economy. It was also noted that the decline in rates of other world central banks contain certain risks for the US economy.

After the minutes release, the dollar index fell from 94.09 to 94.45. The EUR / USD rose from 1.1340 to 1.1400, and the USD / JPY fell from 119.25 to 118.70. Now investors are skeptical that the Fed will raise rates in the middle of the year, as they have expected earlier.

Recall that when the January meeting was held, and the accompanying statement of FOMC was published, it contained clearly "hawkish" hints that the market took as a signal of imminent rate increase. Then the dollar received strong support. Given that other central banks are now massively reducing rates, the Fed looked at this background as a bulwark of stability.

However, analysts believe that the long-term trend of the US dollar growth remains relevant. Perhaps the Fed is preparing to raise rates, but not as fast as it was expected by market participants. Or the regulator will "drag its feet" longer to prepare the market and do not cause a shock, suddenly raising rates.
Experts also note that the dollar's decline after the publication of minutes was a correction caused by the closure of long positions.

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Vista Brokers: Inflation in France Fell more than Expected

On Thursday, the released French data on the consumer price index for January showed a stronger than expected decline. Vista Brokers analysts say that inflation in one of the largest euro zone economies has returned to a minimum of 2009 when the country had just came out of a recession.

So, in January, the consumer price index in France was down by 1% vs. 0.9% in monthly terms. The annual rate fell by 0.4% against the expected 0.3%.

This week inflation data has also came in Greece, which is now in the focus of the market. The fall of the consumer price index in January was 2.8% versus 2.4%. Also on Friday statistics in Italy will be published. Analysts expect lower inflation by 0.4% mom and by 0.6% in annual terms.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD Needs a Fuel to Move Further

The British currency is still feeling confident enough versus the US dollar - quotes are within the short-term but quite clear upward price channel. An important role in the development of this movement has played a publication of the last BOE meeting minutes on Wednesday. It became apparent that two members of the Monetary Policy Committee saw a reason for the rate hike from current levels (0.5%) this year. Also good data on the labor market has supported the pound. Thus, the unemployment rate fell and wages rose more than expected. We note that the factor of low wages previously was decisive for the Old Lady in its long periods of inactivity in the context of monetary tightening. In turn, the growth is limited by resistance levels: 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the decline in December 2014 - January 2015, as well as the expansion of 261.8% of the upward impulse that took place in mid-February.

It is recommended to work in a northerly direction, but we should wait for today's publication of retail sales data. It is likely that this data will cause a deeper correction to the area of the support line, which can be used to build up long positions. The enter on a breakthrough of the current local maximum at 1.5480 is also possible.

USD / JPY. Oriental Calm

As we have noted earlier, a situation with the pair is now more complicated due to some representatives of the Bank of Japan. Recall that once quotes have overcome strategically important resistance level (upper limit of the graphic figure "triangle"), in the news appeared comments of BOJ members with respect to the undesirability of further national currency reduce, as well as reflections on the possible negative impact of additional stimulation measures on consumer sentiment. Thus, some market players went out "to clarify" that led to the formation of a new consolidation figure having its own potential.

This figure can be realized in the next few hours and the exit direction is likely to provide the dominant trend in the near future. To confirm it is desirable to consolidate above / below the next resistance (119.40) or support (118.42) levels. We also can not ignore the formed upward price channel, boundaries of which can be boundaries of subsequent market movements.

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Vista Brokers: Greece Reached Turning Point

On Thursday, Greece finally took a step, which financial market participants had looked forward to. The country filed a request to extend a loan agreement, which ends on February 28, for another six months. However, Vista Brokers analysts say that investors doubt that international creditors will agree to the terms that Athens offers.

Recall that representatives of the Eurogroup, the ECB and the IMF together previously insisted that the only option for Greece is to agree to an extension of the existing conditions of its international bailout. Athens wants to gain time to review credit conditions. Germany is particularly active opposed to it. Amid the German criticism of the Greek proposal euro on Thursday was traded under the pressure most of the day.

Today, euro zone finance ministers will meet in Brussels to consider the "Greek problem" again. If Greece will be without the financial support of the EU on March 1, it can cause panic in the market and initiate a chain of events that will lead Greece out of the euro zone.

Of course, the hope for a compromise still exists. Even the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who has picked to pieces all proposals to restructure the debt of Greece, still claims that there is a space for maneuver, but it is limited. He also noted that the Eurogroup should not forget its main responsibility - to maintain the stability of the eurozone.

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VistaBrokers: Pound Rose Significantly in February

A second month of 2015 was quite successful for the pound. The British currency has risen against the dollar by 2.5%, and this makes it one of the strongest currencies in February among the major ones traded on Forex.

Among main fundamental factors of support for the pound VistaBrokers analysts name the fact that the Bank of England this month has kept its monetary policy unchanged and has not given the market any hint of softening. Investors were worried that the BOE follows the ECB and some other European central banks that have taken additional measures to stimulate their economies. However, the "Old Lady" did not give any signals for it keeping a neutral tone and even expressing some optimism about the economic situation in the country.

With optimism the market also took a traditional BOE Inflation Report. In it regulator has suggested that inflation in the UK will fall to zero soon, but there are no long-term deflationary risks, and the central bank intends to achieve the inflation target of 2% in two years. Amid this the British pound rose significantly against major competitors.
Despite the positive picture that loomed in February, the trend may soon turn because of political disturbance in the UK. In May, elections will be held in the country and, according to preliminary surveys, a good chance of winning has anti-European UK Independence Party (UKIP).

The position of the British Conservative Party is still quite strong, but it is unlikely that it will be able to form a majority in parliament, and in this case, political analysts suggest the following scenario. Conservatives will have to form a coalition with the ultra-UKIP and for this to make certain concessions, and the radicals may require early referendum on the UK's membership in the European Union.

In this case, the pound might appear in a situation similar to one in which the euro is now. Uncertainty about Greece and its possible exit from the euro zone has a lot of pressure on the currency. The referendum in the UK and its possible consequences may become a factor of pressure on the pound too.

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Market Pulse 20.02

On Friday, the economic calendar is full of important statistics. In the euro zone countries and the USA indexes of business activity will be published. In the UK and Canada the information on retail sales will be released. Recall that markets are waiting for the decision on Greece, so part of the statistics may be overlooked.

8:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - February (France)
8:00 ** Flash Services PMI - February (France)
8:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - February (France)
8:30 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - February (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash Services PMI - February (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash PMI Composite - February (Germany)
9:00 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - February (euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash Services PMI - February (euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - February (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). In general, analysts' expectations regarding indices of business activity in the euro zone and its largest economies are quite optimistic. Indices in France, Germany and the euro zone are expected to increase as compared with January.

9:30 *** Retail Sales With Auto Fuel - January (UK)
9:30 ** Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel - January (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The rate growth or exceeding the forecast reflects higher consumer activity, thereby strengthening currency. An important indicator for the economy as a whole and for the dynamics of the pound in particular. In January, analysts expect a decline.

13:30 *** Retail Sales - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Core Retail Sales - December (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The rate growth or exceeding the forecast reflects higher consumer activity, thereby strengthening currency. An important indicator for the economy as a whole and for the dynamics of the Canadian dollar in particular. In January, analysts expect a decline.

14:45 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing from Markit Economics is at a high level, although it is worth noting that in February expect a slight decline.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

USD / CAD Shows Vital Signs

At the end of January saw the US dollar has established nearly six-year low value against the Canadian dollar, which became possible amid the large-scale decline in oil prices (Canada is one of the largest exporters in the world), and the subsequent reduction in key interest rates of the Bank of Canada. However, with the advent of the correction oil market conditions has changed, and the last wave of growth met with a correction, which has taken the form of "triangle". This graphic figure only shows a lull, because with the advent of new vehicle, boundaries of the pattern will be overcome by the price and this will indicate priority for action. At this point, it seems that the bulls in USD / CAD began to take the upper hand, which became the cause of Friday's data on changes in retail sales in Canada. The December value has fallen by 2%, despite the fact that expectations were reduced to decrease by only 0.3%.

It should be noted that the support for quotes is still provided by the trend line which has started on December 31 and which has repeatedly made the point for bulls' purchases. However, in this case, only the output of the aforementioned triangle boundaries will give us a signal to enter. So, on top the 1.2600 mark is still tighten growth, and the 1.2360 mark is doing it below.

EUR / USD. Cautious Optimism

The main currency pair has experienced some signs of turbulence, when on Friday the weak data on business activity in the industrial sector of the region's economy disappointed the market, bringing up quotes to the earlier indicated level of support (1.1270). No less dramatic was also a rebound from this mark after it became aware of a high probability of the current bailout program for Greece extension for another 4 months, which was rumored to be from the text of the agreement. Greeks asked for more (6 months), and the details of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, as well as not yet taken, however, it can take some of the risk out of the market in the context of what the country looks set to remain in the ranks of the eurozone. Thus, at the moment the pair is trading at usual levels, with in addition of a hidden growth potential, when the details of the agreement will be known.

There is nothing more permanent than temporary, so the work in a horizontal channel (1.1270 - 1.1450) on the rebound from its borders, at the moment, is one of the most appropriate trading tactics. In this case, it is useful to use addition signals from indicators such as stochastics to confirm. At the same time, the potential after the powerful motion beyond this range is very high, and we must remember this.

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Vista Brokers: Greece Gained Time to Reach a Compromise with Creditors

On Friday, EUR/USD started the day with a decline, when it became known that Germany has rejected the Greek proposal on the temporary extension of the lending program. However, as Vista Brokers analysts say, later the pair regained amid optimism about the successful completion of negotiations.

The European stock market was influenced by expectations of a positive outcome of negotiations and rose to its highest level in seven years. The main pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.23%. We also should recall the positive statistics of Friday: the index of business activity in industry and services in France came out better than expected, and the general index of activity showed an unexpected increase in February. The index of business activity in the euro zone from Merkit rose from 52.6 in January to 53.5 in February, which was the highest value in seven months.

In accordance with the expectations of most market participants, at the Eurogroup meeting the agreement on Greece was reached. Thus, the Internationale bailout program for the country was extended for 4 months, during which negotiations on further cooperation continue. At the same time Greece undertakes to meet its debt obligations in full, and should provide the first list of reforms on Monday.

Analysts say that the consent of the Eurogroup for a temporary extension of the program only gave Greece a temporary reprieve, but did not solve the problems of the country, so the risks of leaving the euro zone remain.

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Vista Brokers: Oil is Rising amid Greek Optimism

Oil quotes on Monday morning are rising after a late Friday at the Eurogroup meeting it was decided to extent the bailout program for Greece. Vista Brokers analysts note that the long-term trend for oil is still downward, as the market is oversupplied.

In addition, the risk of a global economic slowdown persists, as the risk of Greek exit from the eurozone, because the extension of the program for 4 months is only a temporary solution. Perhaps during this time Athens will be able to negotiate with creditors to change the terms of credit. In any case, in June, the "Greek problem" will again become acute.

Analysts point out that the financial markets generally worked out a positive outcome of Greek negotiations with creditors on Friday, when the issue has become known unofficially. The euro was recovering against the dollar, stocks has reached their record highs.

In its turn oil yielded positive mood on Monday. The price of Brent has reached $ 60.34 per barrel and the price of WTI - $ 50.87. However, the oil market remains below the level of the previous week due to its oversaturation, which has a pressure on oil in the long run.

On Friday, Goldman Sachs has issued a forecast that in the fourth quarter of 2015, growth in oil production will be 440,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year. Production in the United States at the beginning of the year slowed slightly, but bank's experts believe that the process is temporary.

By the way, Goldman Sachs expects that the rise on the oil market will soon rise stop again and oil prices may fall to $ 39 per barrel. Recall that in mid-January the oil market has rebounded after falling to a six-year low. Last week, Brent crude added almost $ 20, approaching the level of $ 63.

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Market Pulse 23.02

Monday is not full of information. Perhaps the market will be too busy with working out the news that Greece has come to a compromise in negotiations with international creditors. In Germany, the portion of indicators from the IFO institute will be released, in the UK – the retail sales data.

9:00 *** Ifo Business Climate - February (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - February (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Expectations - February (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Expectations on IFO institute indexes are very optimistic - recently confidence in the German economy is growing, and these data can strengthen it.

11:00 ** CBI Realized Sales - February (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The indicator of the activity in retail sales is based on a survey of retail and wholesale companies on the dynamics of sales. Growth or exceeded forecast is favorable for the pound.

15:00 ** Existing Home Sales - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). An important indicator of the the housing market health in the US, has a tendency to affect the markets. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the dollar. In January, the indicator is expected to decline.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Is Trend our Friend Again?

While buyers are catching the bottom, the caravan slowly goes southward. As a result, not only the next final frontier was reached - the support line drawn through the last few months minimums, but also the first and probably not the last attempt to overcome it was made. Quotes remain within the downtrend channel of last few weeks, and moving averages confirm the priority of short positions. Despite the lack of the direct influence of fundamental publications in different countries, the today's speech of the Fed head Yellen ahead of the Senate could make adjustments to the current balance of power in the gold market.

It is recommended to open the order to sell from the last local minimum breakthrough at 1190.00 or when approaching the trend line. The next target is the January minimum (1167 dollars per ounce).

USD / CAD. About Graphic Figures in Context of Fundamental Events

We continue to monitor the situation in USD / CAD, where has recently formed a graphic shape of consolidation "triangle". Note that to "score" this pattern, we needed a previous trend with clear graphic boundaries and also we needed the price to come through one of these boundaries subsequently. In last 24 hours first two terms have added the third - bulls attempted to break through the upper boundary of the figure, breaking the previously designated threshold level 1.2600. It is likely that in recent days the loonie was pressured by reduction of oil prices, as well as very weak fundamental data recently published in relation to the Canadian economy.

There is a high probability that the dollar will continue to build up an advantage in USD / CAD, but today's speech of the Fed head ahead of the parliamentary committee in the Senate may be a stumbling block. Note that this event takes place only twice a year, so the impact on the market can be overwhelming. Investors are advised to carefully open position after this event (unless, of course, it would be appropriate in the context of Yellen statements), but for the short-term speculators it is an opportunity to buy just now, defending their positions by fairly short stops.

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Market Pulse 24.02

On Tuesday there will be a series of central banks' representatives speaking in different countries. In the UK, the head of the Central Bank Mark Carney and several members of the MPC will speak, in the euro zone, the United States and Canada - the heads of central banks will talk. Markets will be looking for any signals in monetary policy changes in their comments.

9:10 ** MPC Member Kristin Forbes Speaks - February (UK)
10:00 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - February (UK)
10:00 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - February (UK)
10:00 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent Speaks - February (UK)
10:00 ** MPC Member David Miles Speaks - February (UK)
10:00 ** MPC Member Martin Weale Speaks - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). From the Bank of England markets expect hints at monetary policy tightening in the foreseeable future, so investors will closely monitor comments of the Monetary Policy Committee members and draw their own conclusions.

10:00 ** Consumer Price Index - January (euro zone)
10:00 ** Core CPI - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The Consumer Price Index is one of the key indicators, and the benchmark for central banks. In January, analysts expect a decline in consumer prices in both mom and yoy values.

14:00 *** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - February (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Draghi's comments about the slowing economy and low inflation can put pressure on the euro, while confidence in the economic situation, on the contrary, can support a single currency. However, the latter is unlikely.

15:00 *** CB Consumer Confidence - February (USA)
15:00 *** Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). In February, analysts expect a decrease in the indicator of consumer confidence, which can put a pressure on the dollar, although the statistics may still surprise. The indicator is based on a survey of households on the confidence in the future of the US economy. As for the speech of Janet Yellen, evidence of the tougher Fed monetary policy is expected.

19:00 *** BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks - February (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Traders and investors listen carefully to the speeches of the runners, as they may contain allusions to change the course of monetary policy, or to change the Bank's assessments of the economic outlook. Tougher stance on inflation and improving the prognosis is favorable for the Canadian dollar. Concern risks and ignoring inflation - negative for the exchange rate.

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Vista Brokers: Ifo Indexes Disappointed Market Participants

On Monday, the euro fell from Friday's highs of around 1.1450 reached after a preliminary agreement of Greece with international lenders. Vista Brokers analysts note that stock markets, meanwhile, are reaching new highs amid optimism about the "Greek problem".

A pressure on the single currency had the data on Germany from the Ifo institute, which has come out weaker than expected. Thus, the business climate indicator rose in February by 0.1 vs. 0.7 expected. The current assessment indicator fell from 111.7 to 111.3, while analysts had expected growth to 112.5. Indicator of economic expectations rose also much weaker than expected.

After the release of statistics euro lost 0.64% to the level of 1.1303. A key theme again was negotiations of Greece – having worked out the optimism after their completion, the market focused on a report on the reforms that Athens are now required to provide. List of reforms that Greece is committed to implement, should be given today, although unofficial sources say that it had been already agreed with the Eurogroup.

According to the Greek government, the list will include reforms to combat tax evasion and corruption, as well as some public sector reforms.

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Vista Brokers: Market expects Yellen's speech

On Monday, the US dollar rose against the euro and other competitors amid expectations of speech of the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen ahead of the US Congress. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the Yellen's speech will be devoted to the economic situation in the country and monetary policy, so that is of great interest for investors. The dollar index against the basket of currencies yesterday rose by 0.3%, to 85.62, its highest level since February 11.

Thus, on Tuesday the Fed head will speak first ahead of the Senate Banking Committee, and on Wednesday – ahead of the Finance Committee of the House of Representatives. The market will expect from Yellen evidence that the Fed will raise interest rates this year, for the first time since 2006. Earlier, according to the results of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting investors caught signals of Fed readiness to raise interest rates, as there was mentioned a significant recovery of the labor market. This gave a support to the dollar - if rates rise, the US currency will become increasingly attractive to investors.

But the last week January meeting minutes were published and they have reflected FOMC sentiment more accurately. It became clear that the Committee is not so determined to act. Some members of the Committee insisted on caution and spoke about the risks that too strong dollar can bring the US economy, as well as about a slowdown in the world economy. In general, the Fed sentiment was much more "dovish" than had been expected and the dollar declined after the minutes.

Now the market expect signals for the tendency to tougher Fed policy from Janet Yellen. Investors will also pay attention to some statistics, which will be released in the US this week, in particular, the data on the consumer price index for January and GDP for Q4 2014. Analysts expect that any of Yellen's comments or statistics can be a catalyst for the dollar and push currency pairs out of their usual ranges.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD Moves to New Heights

A speech of the Fed's head ahead of the Senate Banking Committee gave the "cable" an additional impetus through the weakening of the US dollar. So, Yellen did not give reasons to doubt that the tightening of monetary policy sooner or later will happen (though it is certainly not going to happen at the next two meetings), but it seems that markets were set to more bellicose rhetoric of the main figure for financial markets in this context. Whatever it was, the pair has broken another resistance level (1.5480), which only confirms the hypothesis about the development of a full-scale correction of more than six months GBP / USD falling.

Now, when the last correctional Fibonacci level 61.8% of the decline in December 2014 - January 2015 has left behind, we should consider opening long positions with an interim target 1.5620, where is the value of the nearest resistance level. Well, the first strategic target is 1.5800, where is a correction 38.2% of the decline in the period of July 2014 - January 2015.

USD / CAD. The Weather is Changing...

Yesterday a growth was a priority scenario (due to the upper border of the graphic pattern "triangle" overcome). However, yesterday's speeches of two most significant for the USD / CAD figures, namely the Fed chairman and the head of the Bank of Canada, have turned upside down ideas about further actions of these central banks. From Yellen the market has expected a tougher approach to interest rate policy, while Poloz has surprised markets, specifically making it clear that in the near future we should not expect rates cutting. A stormy reaction was expected, but now we have a new approach to the current situation. Thus, the false breakout of the above-mentioned figure backfires and dumps long positions by market participants. Now all the attention is drawn to the pair's dynamics and to the fact whether conditions be able to predict the start of a unprecedented in its scale correction of all the January movement.

At this point it is recommended to be out of the market, waiting for a possible overcome of a designated support line, which was more than once a decisive argument in favor of the bulls. If the breakthrough is destined to be, the price can quickly reach the recent local minimum at 1.2360 and then - the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (1.2325), which together form a zone of support. Further reduction will give strong arguments in favor of that targets, corresponding to the next levels of correction of 50% (1.2180) and 61.8% (1.2030), will be achieved.

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Vista Brokers: Yellen did not Meet Market Expectations

Of course, the most anticipated event of Tuesday was the speech of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen ahead of the Senate Banking Committee. Vista Brokers analysts note that investors have expected from Yellen some signals that the Fed intends to raise rates this year, and the speech left a mixed impression.

Hopes that the Federal Reserve during the summer or autumn will raise rates for the first time since 2006 are quite large. However, Yellen did not give any clear signals about the propensity of Fed to rise rates so soon.

In her speech ahead of the Senate Yellen used to talk about the future plans of the Federal Reserve, and she said that the regulator will gradually move to the phase in which the Fed will consider interest rate hikes "on a meeting-by-meeting basis". The Fed chief gave no clear predictions, but only said that soon Federal Open Market Committee will have more space to maneuver, and they will be able to act according to their judgments about the economic situation.

We note a few points that Janet Yellen has made in her speech:
- the US housing market has not yet recovered as expected, but will rise with economic recovery;
- the Fed sees risks for the economy as balanced, their confidence in the economy has grown;
- the labor market is not completely recovered, but household incomes are rising, thanks to the growth of employment;
- the Fed will raise rates when will be absolutely confident in the economic recovery, starting the process too early is risky;
- the Fed is inclined to think that they need to consider two things: the labor market and inflation.

Overall, the performance was in an optimistic way, but it did not gave a support to the dollar as investors had expected some clear signals.

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Dropped against Major Currencies after Yellen's Speech

On Wednesday, the dollar is losing ground against its major competitors after a yesterday's speech of Janet Yellen ahead of the Senate. Vista Brokers analysts recall that prior to the speech the greenback grew against a basket of currencies, as markets expected from the Fed chairman some clear signals that the controller will begin to raise interest rates in June. The Yellen's speech was quite optimistic, as she has noted labor market recovery, the balance of risks, growing confidence in the economy. However, markets did not see those anticipated signals in its comments.

The situation resembles the reaction to the publication of the the January meeting minutes of the Fed last week. Investors and traders also expected that the minutes will show strong commitment of the Federal Open Market Committee, but instead they saw that many members are opposed to the imminent rate hike.

So yesterday Janet Yellen said that the Fed is just beginning to prepare to go to the cycle when rates could be raised, but the issue will be discussed "on a meeting-by-meeting basis". And she also commented that her words should not be taken as a signal that rates could be raised at any particular meeting.

Dollar "bulls" were disappointed, and the US currency came under pressure. On Wednesday, the dollar lost 0.2% against the yen, dropping to 118.73 yen, while on Tuesday, before the Yellen's speech, the dollar traded against the Japanese currency at a 12-day high of 119.84 yen.

Euro began Wednesday morning with a rally against the dollar. At the time of writing, the EUR / USD is at 1.3835, compared with the opening levels of 1.3382. Support for the single currency has the fact that Greece has approved with creditors a plan of reforms, which Athens are required to implement with the extension of the bailout program for 4 months.

The Australian dollar rose against the US by 0.6% to $ 0.7874, not only amid the weakness of greenback, but after it became known that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in China in February rose more than expected.

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Market Pulse 25.02

If Tuesday's main event was the speech of Janet Yellen ahead of the Senate, on Wednesday investors are waiting for the speech of the Fed Chair ahead of the House of Representatives. Today in China the first important statistics from the beginning of the lunar New Year celebration will be published. This is the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI. The USA will report on the volume of home sales in the primary market.

9:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Shows the number of loans for home purchase. Allows us to estimate the activity in the mortgage market in Britain, according to the largest banks.

11:35 ** BOE Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks - February (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Andrew Bailey is included to the monetary committee which is responsible for the formation of monetary policy. His speech may clarify the next steps of the Bank of England, which could increase the volatility in markets.

15:00 *** Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies - February (USA)
15:00 *** New Home Sales - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). During yesterday's speech Yellen has confirmed the tendency of the Fed to this year rates hike. Probably, today she would follow the same line. With regard to the volume of home sales in the primary market, in January it is expected to decline.

16:00 *** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - February (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Comments of the ECB President Mario Draghi may have a significant impact on the market, especially at times when we expect non-standard measures and changes in the course of monetary policy from the ECB. Now Draghi comments may be particularly interesting in the context of the confirmation of the Fed monetary policy tightening plan.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. To Hold or to Fix

It is a new day and a new high for the pair. Buyers seem quite accustomed after the Fed's head did not persist with the promise to keep to head for the tightening of monetary policy by all means. Nobody wants to create problems to the own economy in the absence of the main object of the struggle (inflation). All the more reason the level of interest rates on government treasury bonds in USA is almost the highest in the developed world, so the rhetoric has become generally neutral. That is what bulls needed. Now they also have some comments from the Bank of England about a possible rate hike to 1% in 2017, and the unemployment rate, which is on the minimum of the last 5 years. To date, the quotes have reached the upper boundary of the rising channel.

Investors for who fluctuations within the channel are child's play, can continue to hold long positions. For those who prefer a short-term work, trying to take everything and every movement, the resistance line achieving would mean the intermediate results fixing and the possible entry to the purchase when the support line is reached. Targets remain the same - 1.5620 (the nearest resistance level), and then - 1.5800 (correction level 38.2% from a seven-month fall). Today, it is worth paying attention to revised UK GDP for the 4th quarter 2014 release.

GOLD. At the Intersection of Two Roads

The situation in the gold market is somewhat different - buyers feel uncertainty of bears in their course of action after reaching the support line that connects minimum values of all the ascent, we can see over the past few months. We also see daily candles without bodies and with very long shadows that in terms of the Japanese candlestick analysis language can be called "doji". This is a strong reversal pattern, especially when it appears near significant levels. On the other hand, a short-term descending channel is still relevant for us.

Taking into account the current technical picture, it is recommended to monitor the situation on a regular basis, ready to act, depending on the scenario. Given a strong support, sales are worthy of consideration only if the mark of 1190 dollars per troy ounce will be broken, while going beyond the downstream channel will give a signal to open long positions.

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Vista Brokers: Cautious Stance of Fed Disappoints Bulls

On Wednesday, the dollar has gotten a support after the release of statistics on the volume of home sales in the US primary market in January. Vista Brokers analysts point out that for the first month of the new year the volume of sales has declined slightly, though showing much stronger results than the market had expected. So, in percentage terms sales decreased by 0.2% against the expected 2.3%. Values for December were also revised slightly higher.

However, this positive did not keep the dollar from lower against its major counterparts after the speech of Janet Yellen ahead of the House of Representatives. Fed Chairman in her comments was again cautious, noting that wage growth and inflation have to accelerate before the Fed will raise rates, and labor market recovery is not a good reason to start this process. Fed fears that a premature rate hike could lead to negative consequences for the US economy.

Yesterday's speech was in sync with comments that Yellen has given on Tuesday ahead of the Senate. In the second day as well as in the first one after the Fed's head speech the dollar was under pressure. Thus, yesterday USD / JPY fell by 0.1% to 118.86, and the EUR / USD rose by 0.2% to 1.1362. The dollar index fell by 0.3%, to 85.20.

Analysts reminds that the next Fed meeting will be held on March 17-18. Perhaps, then, bulls will get some signals that rates will still be raised in the summer. While market participants are disappointed with the too cautious stance of the controller.

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Vista Brokers: On Thursday, Oil is Trading under Pressure Again

On Thursday, oil prices are falling again after its rally on Wednesday amid the publication of data on resource production growth in the United States. Vista Brokers analysts say that Brent crude oil has decreased by 0.62% to 61.25 dollars per barrel after Wednesday gained more than 5%. April futures for WTI crude oil has fallen by 1.06% to 50.45 dollars per barrel after rising 3% in the previous trading session.

A pressure to oil prices was put by the weekly US Department of Energy review, which showed that commercial oil reserves in the country are at 80-year highs. For the week ending on February 20 this indicator has risen by 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase by only 3.98 million barrels.

Earlier on Wednesday, oil has gained support from several fundamental factors. Firstly, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said that markets had calmed down, and demand for resources had begun to gradually increase. Secondly, it was reported that manufacturing activity in China has grown much stronger than expected, and Greece approved the list of reforms with the Eurogroup. This strengthened hopes for global economic recovery, and therefore the demand for fuel. And thirdly, it was the speech of the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen ahead of the Senate, which showed a cautious position of the controller and put pressure on the dollar.

However, these factors have not been able to support the growth of oil for too long - today the market has returned to the theme of high levels of oil production and a falling demand. Note that in the United States the production is large-scale, despite the fact that now in the oil sector the largest since 1980 workers' strike takes place. It is a strike of several thousand workers at 15 oil companies.

Analysts say that despite some increase of oil over the past few weeks, in global terms, we still have a crash by almost 50%, which is the largest decline in the oil market over the past 20 years. The main reason is that the "shale revolution" and the growth of production in the United States, together with the return of Libyan oil to the market which led to a strong increase in demand. At the same time slowing economies of the euro zone, China and Japan led to lower demand.

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Vista Brokers: S & P Downgraded Outlook for Economic Growth in China and Japan

On Thursday, it was reported that the international rating agency Standard & Poor's lowered its forecasts for 2015 - 2016 years in Japan and China. At the same time, as Vista Brokers analysts say, the forecast for India was improved.

Thus, Standard & Poor's experts expect that by the end of 2015 Japan's GDP will grow by only 0.7% instead of 1.3% as it had been expected in earlier forecasts. The next year it is expected to grow by 1.3% against 2.1%. As for China, the forecast for GDP growth in 2015 was lowered by S & P from 7.1% to 6.9%, and in 2016 - from 6.7% to 6.6%. The rating agency has kept the rating of Chinaat the same level "AA-" with a stable outlook.

With regard to India, Standard & Poor's has revised its forecasts upstairs. Thus, for the fiscal year ending in March 2016, India's economy is expected to grow by 7.9% versus 6.2% previously expected. In the next fiscal year it is projected to grow by 8.2% instead of 6.6%.

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Market Pulse 26.02

Thursday will be a day with a highly charged fundamental background. Important statistics will be published in Germany, UK, USA, Canada, the euro zone, so that the market can be extremely volatile.

8:55 ** Unemployment Change - February (Germany)
8:55 ** Unemployment Rate - February (Germany)
8:55 ** Unemployment Data Released by Federal Labor Agency - February (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Data for Germany are expected to be quite positive - analysts suggest that the number of unemployed people in February, will reduce by 10K and the unemployment rate will remain the same.

9:30 *** Second Estimate GDP - Q4 (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The UK GDP growth in the final quarter of the last year is expected to reach 0.5% month on month and 2.7% year on year.

10:15 *** ECB Announces Allotment in 4-years TLTROs - February (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). The value indicates the amount of loans that the ECB has issued to commercial banks. The large volume indicates an increased demand for liquidity from the ECB and may put pressure on the euro.

13:30 *** Consumer Price Index - January (Canada)
13:30 *** Core CPI - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Analysts expect that the consumer price index in January in Canada has fallen by 0.3%, while the core index has risen by 0.1%. Not too optimistic forecasts for the economy and the actual data can be even worse if the Canadian dollar will be under pressure.

13:30 *** Consumer Price Index - January (USA)
13:30 *** Core CPI - January (USA)
13:30 *** Durable Goods Orders - January (USA)
13:30 *** Core Durable Goods Orders - January (USA)
13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - February (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Such a large portion of statistics can seriously affect the dollar. The market attention will likely be turned to the data that are reference points for the Fed: the consumer price index and unemployment claims.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. Close-in Objective

In the last review, we noted the fact that prices had reached the channel line of the current uptrend and a correction from achieved levels is probable. Actually, that is what has happened, and the formal start of reducing put quite projected data on the revised value of the UK GDP for the 4th quarter (0.5%). It is likely that the role in the doubt of buyers played another quarterly statistics on the volume of capital investments in the country (-1.4% against the expected growth of 2%). Anyway, the fall was limited by the achievement of the rising channel lower boundary, where the situation has stabilized.

This situation can be regarded as a godsend, because the market made it possible to build up a long position in the framework of the trend with a rather short stop. So, we recommend to open long positions, limiting the possible loss by the minimum value of yesterday's trading - 1.5392. As an interim target of purchases we can name 1.5620 mark, where is one of the important resistance levels. It is probably that in this area the price will reach the opposite border of the channel.

EUR / USD Bids its Time

We state qualitative changes in the balance of forces in the market - bears went on the offensive, and not without the influence of the Greek factor (today the German parliament will vote as for the Greek bailout approval for four months), as well as market awareness of the differences in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. So if the Fed this year is expected to rise rate (which is manifested in the growth of government treasury bonds yields), the profitability of some European market (for example, German) – is currently in the negative zone. In the United States growth is still in a good level, which was confirmed by yesterday's data on orders for durable goods, while the eurozone is waiting for a long period of quantitative easing.

At the moment, the price has reached the lower limit of two downstream channels in which the slope is relatively flat. Here, from a technical point of view, the fate of the pair's future direction should be decided. In case of yesterday's low break we should await for the quotes to reach January lows (1.1098), whereas the pullback in the channels' depth may ultimately lead to the achievement of its upper limit (1.1350-1.1400). We still have more questions than answers, but the situation is changing and this is positive. Today it is recommended to draw attention to the publication of the US GDP for the 4th quarter, which perhaps, will be a decisive argument for toe market.

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Vista Brokers: Strong statistics Returned Confidence in Fed Rate Hike in June

It looks like already forgotten a speech of the Fed chairman Janet Yellen, in which she has expressed caution regarding the premature rate hikes. On Thursday, on the agenda was positive statistics from the US, which returned strength to bulls and optimism to the market. Vista Brokers analysts say that the data on inflation and orders for durable goods in the US returned to investors confidence that the Fed will rise interest rates in June.

After the release of statistics the US dollar began to strengthen across the market. Against the yen greenback has immediately rushed to 119.11 yen against 118.85. Euro loss was even more significant: in couple of hours EUR / USD lost 0.7%, dropping to 1.1281 dollars from 1.1317 in anticipation of the data.

So, the main impetus for the growth of the dollar was the data on the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy prices, which rose in January by 0.2% vs. 0.1%. This indicator, rather than the overall consumer price index, is a benchmark for the Fed, so that the stormy reaction of the market is clear. Another pleasant surprise for investors was the data on durable goods. In January, the index rose by 2.8% against the expected 1.7%.

In such strong data, market participants saw a signal that the Fed will raise rates in the near future, as they reflect the recovery of the US economy.

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Vista Brokers: Dollar was Supported by Statistics and Fed Remarks

On Friday morning, the dollar slowed the rally that it had began yesterday after strong US data and remarks of Fed representatives. Vista Brokers analysts say that amid publication of inflation data and orders for durable goods, which were better than expected, the dollar index rose to a basket of currencies by 1.1%.

Today DXY fell by 0.2% to around 95.130 against 95.357 month high reached on Thursday. The euro rebounded by 0.1% to $ 1.1213, while remaining near-month low at $ 1.1184 reached during yesterday's dollar rally. Against the yen, the dollar fell by 0.2% to 119.15.

Strengthening of the US dollar on the one hand was caused by the statistics. Thus, the consumer price index, excluding the prices of food and energy prices in the US rose by 0.2% against 0.1%, which had been expected. The overall consumer price index fell slightly more than forecast, but this is due mainly decline in oil prices. Furthermore, the core CPI which does not include products with the most volatile prices, is the benchmark for the Fed. Orders for durable goods in January rose by 2.8% against the expected 1.7%.

The market reaction to these two indices was so stormy that investors even ignored the fact that the data on the number of initial and counting unemployment claims came out worse than expected.

A positive factor for the dollar on Thursday also were several Fed comments. We note the key moments of FOMC members' speeches.

The Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said that the US economy is clearly showing a strong growth and absence of inflation and suggested that the Fed could raise short-term rates at first and watch the reaction of the market.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester believes that the US GDP growth this year will be 3%. It supports the consideration of a rate increase in June. In her opinion, it is better to start the slow process earlier rather than sharply raise interest rates later, causing shock in the markets.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams expects that the level of "full employment" will be reached this year, and inflation will come to the 2% target by the end of next year. He noted that the Fed could start raising rates in the summer or fall.

Thus, statements of FOMC members were consonant with Janet Yellen remarks and sounded quite optimistic.

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Market Pulse 27.02

On Friday a trading day is again filled with fundamental data. The most important will be inflation data in Germany and the GDP changing in the United States. In the USA will also be published osome other statistics that may have an impact on the market.

7:45 ** Consumer Spending - January (France)
7:45 ** Producer Prices - January (France)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for both indices are not too optimistic. Analysts expect that consumer spending in France has fallen, and the producer price index has declined again.

8:00 ** Flash Consumer Price Index - February (Spain)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that in February the slowdown in inflation in Spain was 1.5%, after the January index also fell by 1.3%. Decline in consumer prices in one of the largest economies of the euro area indicates its moderation.

13:00 *** Prelim Consumer Price Index - February (Germany)
13:00 *** Prelim Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised - February (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for both indices are not too optimistic, although when compared to other euro zone economies, the situation in Germany with inflation is not critical. It is expected that in February figures have risen slightly mom and have fallen yoy.

13:30 *** GDP Second Release - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Prelim GDP Price Index - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Personal Consumption (Second Release) - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Second Release) - Q4 (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Preliminary data on changes in US GDP in the 4th quarter of 2014 showed an increase of 2.6%, while analysts were expecting 3%, so that in early February, the market has been disappointed by the data. Now it is expected that GDP will be revised down - from 2.6% to 2.1%.

14:45 ** Chicago PMI - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). It is expected that the index of business activity in the Chicago area fell slightly in February, but it does not cancel the fact that the index is at a high enough level.

15:00 ** Pending Home Sales - February (USA)
15:00 ** Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Forecasts for both indices are positive enough. Recall that in recent weeks the US housing market has surprised investors, showing disappointing data or far exceeding forecasts.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

USD / JPY. Coincidence or not?

USD / JPY moves gradually start to look aesthetic within boundaries of the upward channel formed in last couple of weeks. We can also name the other, more far-reaching trend, the direction of which is similar and it is worth remembering that currently this trend is useful only for its vector. It is clearly evident in recent years that in the way of growth of the yen Japanese officials choose the right time and drop bulls from the top. This expression is figurative, but it is the real fact that at the approach of quotations to certain price levels, a representative of Japanese ruling elite suddenly appears with a particular statement. So today, the yen strengthened significantly after approaching of the upper channel boundary when Etsuro Honda, the economic adviser to Prime Minister Kuroda, expressed doubts about the feasibility of further quantitative easing volume increasing. He motivated this with the normal course of affairs regarding the achievement of the inflation rate of 2%. Honda also pointed out that the current rate of the yen is at the edge of the comfort zone. The market's reaction was appropriate – quotes started to reduce.

It is recommended to consider short positions in order to achieve the lower boundary of the rising channel. Stop order is at 120.26.

AUD / USD. Is Market Ready for Correction?

The pair continues to trade in the long-term and medium-term downward price channel. The latter rebound from the trend line was took place only a few days ago. Recall that, according to the results of the February RBA meeting, it was decided to reduce the rate for the first time since August 2013 to 2.25%, and it has led quotes to the lowest level since May 2009. So today, the another rate cut was expected, but the RBA did not go to new stimulation measures. Basic argument was a need to limit the growth in property prices. Overheating in the housing market could adversely affect the economic recovery of the Green continent. Amid this AUD / USD has increased significantly, threatening to retest the above-mentioned trend line.

It is too early to talk about it, but it should be noted that the breakthrough of the local high at 0.7910 will give a technical basis for the development of full correction of all decline. If to theorize further, the first target of this correction may be the level of 0.8330, where is the Fibo level of 38.2% of the descending wave in July 2014 - February 2015.

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Vista Borkers: Euro Tested Fresh Lows

On Monday, the single currency has rebounded slightly against the dollar amid quite positive statistics. Thus, in Italy and Germany manufacturing PMI index rose more than analysts had expected. Consumer price index flash estimate in the euro zone showed a decline of 0.3% against a more pessimistic forecast of 0.5%. The unemployment rate in the region in January unexpectedly fell by 0.1% instead of expected growth by the same amount.

However, as Vista Borkers analysts say, positive statistics did not make much impression on investors, and a recovery has stopped at about 1.1250. Market participants were waiting for strong data on the ISM manufacturing index in the US, and although these expectations were not met (index came out worse than forecast), it must be admitted that the rate is still at a high level. In January, the index was at 53.5, and in February fell to 52.9 vs. 53.4. A value above 50 is considered to be the growth of the industry.

It is worth noting that after the release of ISM data two world's largest bank have announced a reduction of forecasts for the US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast from 2.7% to 2.5%, arguing it with an unexpected decline in the cost of construction index and ISM data. Barclays also lowered the forecast for the 1st quarter from 2.1% to 1.9%.

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Vista Brokers: RBA Kept Rates Unchanged

On Tuesday, it was reported that the Reserve Bank of Australiaon on its meeting has decided to keep the interest rate at the same level - 2.25%, while the market has been expecting another decrease of it. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the absence of new stimulation measures led to a rise of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Immediately after the publication of the RBA decision, AUD / USD pair rose by 0.6%, exceeding the 0.78 level.

Why did the Reserve Bank of Australia postponed the lowering of the rates which was expected by many of analysts? In anticipation of the publication of the meeting's decision their forecasts about the rate decline by 0.25% voiced Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Westpac.
They named such reasons as decline in world commodity prices, the highest since 2002 unemployment rate, a low level of confidence in the economy of consumers and businesses, the economic slowdown in China, which is the main buyer of Australian raw materials.

The arguments are sufficient, but nonetheless, the RBA decided to keep the rate. In the accompanying statement, the regulator noted the following: it is expected that economic growth will be weak, as a domestic demand; further depreciation of the national currency is necessary for balanced growth in the future; prospects for a rate cut will be discussed at further meetings. Thus, the RBA did not lower the rate, but showed that probably do so in the near future in order to stimulate the economy.

The head of the Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said that after the last meeting rate has already been reduced, at the moment it is advisable to leave it at that level. "Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead. The Board will further assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings"- he said.

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Vista Brokers: Oil is above $60 per barrel

On Tuesday morning, April futures for Brent crude rose by 1.37% to $ 61 per barrel during London trading. Meanwhile, in New York April futures for WTI grew by 0.75% to $ 51.91 per barrel.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the growth factor for oil was the information from Baker Hughes that the number of active rigs in the US last week fell to its lowest level since 2011 - 986. However, there are still so many factors of pressures on oil. Thus, the US Department of Energy expects that in 2015 the growth of oil production in the country will be 7.8%. It will be produced 9.3 million barrels per day. In 2016, daily production could grow to 9.52 million barrels.

Note also that in February the volume of oil production in Saudi Arabia increased by 130 thousand barrels per day to 9.85 million barrels - a maximum since 2013.

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Market Pulse 03.03

Today Australia has already published data on building approvals, and the Reserve Bank has released its decision on interest rates, together with the accompanying statement. The RBA decided to leave the rate unchanged. Today interesting statistics will be also released in Canada and the UK.

7:00 ** Retail Sales - January (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that retail sales in January have risen. Growth of this index reflects higher consumer activity that strengthens the currency.

8:00 ** Unemployment Change - February (Spain)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). One of the most important indicators showing the change in the number of unemployed people during the past month. The rate growth reflects negative processes, although in February it is expected a much smaller increase of the index than in the previous month.

9:30 *** Construction PMI - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the construction industry. Shows the improvement or deterioration compared with the previous month. The situation in the construction industry in Britain is always closely watched by the market.

10:00 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - March (UK)
10:00 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - March (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Market participants will closely monitor statements of Mark Carney looking for some hints at the future Bank of England strategy in respect of monetary policy. Optimistic signals can enhance investors' hopes that the British regulator will raise rates after the Fed.

13:30 *** Gross Domestic Product - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized - Q4 (Canada)
13:30 ** Raw Materials Price Index - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Analysts expect that in December, Canada's economy has grown by 0.1%. It's quite a bit, but compared with the value of November, when GDP has fallen by 0.2%, it is a better result. During the 4th quarter of 2014, experts expect growth of 2%.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP/USD. At the Crossroads Again

Despite the fact that there was no significant changes in the dynamics of the "cable" (in terms of the movement scale), we have a steady drift farther from overcoming support line of the last few weeks' trend. A level of support we have mentioned in one of previous reviews (1.5382) was also pushed through, and currently only one significant level is on bears' road - 1.5330. It should be noted that tomorrow will be a meeting of the Bank of England, that definitely keeps the tension of market players now (not allowing to take more decisive action), whereas immediately after the announcement of the results, we can count on more specific dynamics. We should also note the fact that the indicated level of support is strengthened by the Fibonacci correction level 38.2% of the above-mentioned pair growth in January and February of this year.

Overcoming and subsequent consolidation of quotes below 1.5330 would give rise to open short positions with the target of 1.5250 (50% correction) and then - 1.5180 (61.8%) of the ascending wave in January and February. In the case of rebound from current levels and return to boundaries of the abandoned channel, we can expect growth to the February maximum (1.5550).

EUR / USD. Investors Wait for Explanation...

In anticipation of tomorrow's ECB meeting market players try not to tempt fate, and quotes are near the lower boundary of two downstream channels that differ only with angle of inclination. Returning to the subject of the European Central Bank, it is worth noting that the market expects explanations on a number of points regarding the upcoming program of quantitative easing, which could seriously affect the single currency.

Thus, we recommend to wait for tomorrow's events and be ready to respond appropriately to changing market conditions after the new data. At the moment, the key support level is 1.1096 – the eleven-year minimum for EUR / USD, on top the growth is limited by 1.1270. In some degree the market can "swing" today due to the Services PMI publication.

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Drops after Weak GDP Data

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar dropped after the release of Australia's GDP statistics for Q4 2104. Vista Brokers analysts note that the weak data made aussie fall to 0.7813 dollars compared with 0.7824 dollars late Tuesday.

Thus, it became known that the Australian economy in the 4th quarter increased by 0.5% qoq and 2.5% yoy against forecasts of 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively. As you can see, the data did not meet investors' expectations, and it is natural that they began to sell the currency of the Green continent.

Recall that the Australian dollar on Tuesday has received support after the announcement of the RBA decision, and has grown against the US dollar. The thing is that analysts expected the Reserve Bank to announce reduction of interest rates from the level of 2.25% to 2%, but this has not happened. The RBA accompanying statement also was rather neutral, without much pessimism, so aussie rose.

But, as it often happens in Forex, optimism was short term, and today, having received a reminder of the Australian economic problems (the GDP data) the Aussie fell again. Weak statistics has reminded the market that the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to easing of monetary policy, and if this has not happen yesterday, it is likely would happen at the next meeting. Westpac analysts expect a rate cut by 0.25% in April or May. ANZ economists are inclined to believe that it will happen at the May meeting.

The belief that the RBA will go with further rate cuts was strengthened by its member John Edwards comments. Today, he said that the GDP growth rate is significantly lower than those needed to effectively strike unemployment and to restore the labor market, they need the GDP growth of at least 3%. Therefore, Edwards considers further rate cuts necessary.

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Market Pulse 04.03

Wednesday is saturated, as the whole week is. Today Australia has already release data on changes in GDP for the 4th quarter, the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen has spoken in the USA. In many countries today PMI index will be published, this time for the services sector, as well as the PMI composite. The Bank of Canada today will announce its decision on interest rates, and in the US ADP non-farm employment change data will be released.

8:15 ** Services PMI - February (Spain)
8:15 ** PMI Composite - February (Spain)

8:45 ** Services PMI - February (Italy)
8:45 ** PMI Composite - February (Italy)

8:50 ** Services PMI - February (France)
8:50 ** PMI Composite - February (France)

8:55 ** Services PMI - February (Germany)
8:55 ** PMI Composite - February (Germany)

9:00 ** Services PMI - February (euro zone)
9:00 ** PMI Composite - February (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Typically, the PMI composite index and Services PMI have less impact than the corresponding manufacturing index. Analysts expect that in the majority of countries of the euro zone indices will remain at levels of January, and only in Spain is expected a slight increase.

9:30 *** Services PMI - February (UK)
9:30 *** PMI Composite - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The UK purchasing managers' index in the service sector is considered important.Currently, the index is at a high level, and in February, experts also predict a rise.

13:15 *** ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The indicator of employment in the private sector is the main reference to official statistics (non-farm payrolls) and often causes significant fluctuations in the market. Expectations regarding the index are optimistic, so that the US dollar could gain significant support.

15:00 *** BOC Overnight Rate - March (Canada)
15:00 *** BOC Rate Statement - March (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Analysts do not expect the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates once again, but as the results of yesterday's meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia have shown, the regulators are full of surprises. In any case, investors will pay much attention to the accompanying statement.

15:00 *** ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Analysts expect a slight decrease in the index for non-manufacturing sector, although the rate is still at a high level, so the market reaction may be ambiguous.

19:00 ** Beige Book - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The Overview of 12 US Federal Reserve banks on the state of the local economies may be interesting from the point of the current situation. Better-than-expected statements are able to support the dollar.

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Vista Brokers: EUR/USD Continues to “Swing”

On Tuesday, EUR / USD at first rose slightly amid the positive statistics from the euro zone, but then fell again. Vista Brokers analysts note that the pair is actively moving up and down in anticipation of the ECB meeting on Thursday.

The data on retail sales in Germany were much better than expected and the euro grew to the maximum of 1.1210. Thus, the retail trade in the euro zone's largest economy grew by 2.9% mom and 5.3% yoy (up to June 2010), against forecasts of 0.5% and 2.6% respectively. The sale of food, beverages and tobacco rose by 3.8%, while sales of non-food products increased by 6.3%.

As you can see, the difference between expected and actual data is significant, and it gave an upward impetus to the single currency. Much stronger than the forecast was also statistics on the unemployment change in Spain. The indicator has shown a 13.5 thousand decline of unemployed versus expected 10 thousand.

However, the euro could not held the growth too long, even with such a positive background. Pressure on the currency was put with expectations about the ECB meeting and comments that may sound at the traditional press conference. It is unlikely that they will be bullish for the euro, so that investors act out beforehand.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP/USD. Is it a Correction of Correction?

Yesterday, the US dollar buyers stepped up again, which resulted in the fall of the "cable" to the area of 50% correction (1.5250) after overcoming of the preceding Fibo level 38.2% (of the January-February growth in this year), as well as previously indicated support level 1.5330. The main reason could be the publication of the quite weak data on business activity in the services sector, however, apparently it was only an indirect factor, because purchases of the dollar yesterday prevailed in most areas. Today will be held the Bank of England meeting - a major factor that can cause strong fluctuations in the market, and this also should not be forgotten.

So, the next reducing target is 1.5180 (61.8%) from the abovementioned wave of growth. Will the achievement of the following target become the logical correction of the previous growth, which, in its turn, has become the first corrective wave of the second half of 2014 downtrend? The time will show us, but at this stage it is not necessary to persist in preferences, demonstrating a flexibility in tactical decisions.

EUR / USD. Is the Path Tabooed or Whether we should Wait a Little Longer?

The last bastion of bulls we have mentioned in the previous review fall. It is the established in January level of support corresponding to the minimum value over the past 11 years (1.1096). Together with it was finally won a support corresponding to a Fibonacci correction 61.8% of the total growth in 2000-2008 and it is quite a big deal because there is no other reasons for buyers to catch current levels. Today is held the ECB meeting, where will be announced details of the, adopted at the January meeting program of quantitative easing (12.45 GMT). And then at13.30 GMT the European Central Bank President will give the traditional press conference, where market players can hear a lot of interesting. However, the nature of this reduction lets us think that "the ice was broken," and it has come to stay no matter what would officials tell today. The US economy is growing on all fronts, as statistics says (which this year will result in the rates hike), while the euro zone only makes its first steps in quantitative easing. This is a long-term factor to be reckoned with for a long time.

If you have no open short positions, it is recommended to wait for the completion of the Dreghi press conference before entering the market. A new downstream channel was formed, in which boundaries we must look for the entry point, working on a rebound from the trend line.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Dropped Lower Prior to ECB Meeting

On Wednesday, the single currency continued to move in a downtrend, reaching new lows against the US dollar and other major currencies. Vista Brokers analysts say that it was mainly due to releases of Services PMI in some countries of the euro zone. In another situation, the response to such data would not be so stormy, but not before the ECB meeting, which, according to market expectations, will disclose some details of the ambitious program of quantitative easing realization.

Thus, in Spain the PMI index for the services sector in February went down from 56.7 to 56.2 against the expected growth to 56.9. In Italy, analysts had expected growth from 51.2 to 51.8, but the index dropped to 50. In France, the index remained at the level of January meeting with expectations. In Germany, analysts expect that the rate will remain unchanged, but it fell from 55.5 to 54.7. And finally, in the euro zone the index fell from 53.9 to 53.7.

While statistics was published in different countries, the EUR / USD continued to fall. Even retail sales data for the euro zone, which came much better than expected (1.1% vs. 0.2%) could not stop its decline as well as ADP non-farm employment change index, which came weaker than expected. Thus, ADP data showed that in February, the private sector added 212,000 new jobs, and the forecast was 220,000.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Freshes Lows against other Currencies

During early Thursday trading the single currency was declining against all major competitors in anticipation of today's ECB meeting and the official start of the quantitative easing program in the euro zone. Vista Brokers analysts note that the euro has fallen against the dollar to the minimu, since September 2003.

Also the euro is losing ground against the British pound, Swiss franc, Japanese yen. EUR / JPY today is trading at 132.31 yen against 132.58 yen late Wednesday.

Recall that the European Central Bank is preparing to launch a large-scale program of quantitative easing, which involves the purchase of government bonds in the amount of 60 billion euros per month. Analysts expect that after today's meeting rates will remain the same: 0.05% for the key rate and 0.2% for the deposit rate. Such large-scale measures to stimulate the economy have a strong pressure on the euro.

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Market Pulse 05.03

On Thursday will be published a lot of important data that can significantly affect the dynamics of currency pairs. Australia has already released statistics on retail sales and the trade balance. Today, two major world central banks at once will announce their decisions on interest rates and comment on the economic situation in accompanying statements. The market will be waiting for this information.

12:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - March (UK)
12:00 *** Asset Purchase Facility - March (UK)
12:00 *** MPC Rate Statement - March (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Although investors do not expect any surprises from the Bank of England, they will listen to its comments carefully. If the nature of statements is optimistic, investors will consider this as a signal that the bank could start to raise rates in the foreseeable future. If the comments seem too neutral or even pessimistic, the reaction can be quite the opposite.

12:45 *** ECB Interest Rate Decision - March (euro zone)
12:45 ** Deposit Facility Rate - (euro zone)
12:45 ** Marginal lending facility - March (euro zone)
13:30 *** ECB Press Conference - March (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). At the ECB meeting some interesting details can be sounded regarding to the start of the asset repurchase program which is the part of the program of quantitative easing later this month. So that its results can significantly affect dynamics of the pair.

13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - February (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - February (USA)
13:30 ** Revised Nonfarm Productivity - Q4 (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Analysts expect that the number of unemployment claims during the reporting week has grown a little more than a week earlier, and the level of labor productivity in the 4th quarter has increased.

15:00 *** Ivey PMI - February (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The index is based on a survey of purchasing managers. It shows an improvement or deterioration in comparison with the previous month. Growth rate or exceeded the forecast is favorable for the currency.

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