official Market Analysis And News by Hotforex.com

[HFM]

Date : 1st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st September 2016.



FX News Today
European Outlook: European stock futures are higher, following on from a mixed session in Asia, where Japanese bourses managed to move higher in tandem with the Hang Seng after improvements in Japan and China manufacturing PMIs. Mainland Chinese bourses meanwhile were in the red. The U.S. jobs report tomorrow is moving into focus and investors and central bankers look to data for clues on the timing of a possible Fed hike. The ECB meanwhile seems eager to prevent any build up of easing speculation ahead of next week’s meeting and Draghi is still remarkably stumm as the block out period for central bank comments starts. Today’s European calendar focuses on PMI readings, which in the case of the final Eurozone reading is not expected to hold major surprises, while the U.K. number is hoped to lift slightly from the post Brexit slump in July.

Oil & Gold: Commodities under pressure – WTI crude has traded under the $45/bbl mark for the first time since August 15, touching$44.49 lows, as the combination of higher U.S. inventories, and a firm dollar continue to weigh. Bigger picture, an OPEC production freeze is not expected at the September meeting in Algiers, despite recent comments from Iraq’s oil minister, who said he would support a freeze. Loggerheads between Saudi and Iran, who has insisted on bringing its production back to pre-sanction levels, will likely result in no agreement to cap output. Gold dropped to new two-month lows of$1,304.10 from near $1,316.00, on a reported large sale (nominal $4 bln-plus), rumored to be linked to the cutting of a large long position. This may have been the result of the in-line ADP jobs data, and ahead of Friday’s official employment report. A solid NFP outcome on Friday will up the odds for a September Fed rate hike, which would likely weigh heavily on gold prices.

US Data Reports: Revealed an August Chicago PMI drop to 51.5 from 55.8 in July and a 17-month high of 56.8 in June, as these numbers unwind the mid-year auto-retooling boost, while ADP posted a firm 177k August rise after a big July boost to 194k from 179k. For producer sentiment, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 51 from 52 in July but a lower 50 in May and June. The ADP gain signals slight upside risk for our 185k August payroll estimate, given the 20k downside bias in as-reported ADP, alongside upside risk from tight claims and producer sentiment, but downside auto sector risk as sales drop to the 17.2 mln area in August after the July pop to a 17.8 mln rate.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari wants to see core inflation rise and needs more data before considering a rate hike, speaking on DJ News. Sounds like the moderate regional Fed president is still on the dovish side of the fence, though he’s not a voter in this rotation. These comments came from a video interview in which he reiterated calls for too-big-to-fail reforms and said monetary policy is a blunt tool, but offered little else on rate hike timing per se.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Manufacturing ISM August ISM is out today and is expected to decline slightly to 52.0 (median 52.0) from 52.6 in July and 53.2 in June. Already released measures of producer sentiment for August have been weaker so one to watch at 14:00 GMT.

• US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 27 is out Thursday and should reveal a headline increase to 269k (median 264k) from 261k in the week prior and 262k before that. More broadly, we expect claims to set a higher average in August at 263k from 260k in July. This supports our nonfarm payrolls forecast which we currently have at 185k with a 4.8% unemployment rate for August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 6th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th September 2016.



FX News Today

FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with the ASX a notable exception as the Aussie strengthened following Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates steady. Oil prices are higher on the day and the front end WTI future climbed further above USD 45 per barrel, but gains are capped by concerns that stocks indices may be approaching overbought levels. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, despite the fact that U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected with the like-for-like reading down -0.9% y/y, against expectations for another marked rise. German factory orders disappointed and previous month revised down (see below) – EURUSD overnight lows 1.1140 currently 1.1150. The Eurozone also has the detailed reading of Q2 GDP, and elsewhere Switzerland releases Q2 GDP and August inflation data.

FX Summary: The dollar and euro traded softer against most other currencies, with markets taking Friday’s payrolls report as lowering the odds for the Fed to hike rates at its FOMC meeting later this month, while data left prospects for unchanged policy with dovish guidance at the ECB’s meeting this week. USD-JPY declined by over 0.5% to the 103s and EUR-JPY fell by 0.7%. Cable popped higher on the back of a record month-to-month rebound in the UK’s August services PMI, but gains failed to sustain as such an outcome had been well flagged by the stellar rebounds already seen in last week’s construction and manufacturing PMI reports. USD-CAD extended Friday’s post-U.S. jobs losses, with the Canadian dollar rallying concomitantly with oil prices. News that Russia and Saudi Arabia had signed an agreement to set up a “working group” to think of ways to curtail crude market volatility boosted crude. (see below)

Oil Update: Oil prices sprang higher on news of a Saudi-Russia agreement, signed on the sidelines of the G20 meetings, to set up a “working group” to discuss ideas about how to minimise market volatility. WTI crude was up nearly 5% at the $46.50 intraday peak, overnight it traded to $44.75 before recovering to $45.30. A lack of specifics about how output might be restricted apparently led to the rally fizzing out, and prices retreating. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Falih, said that that Iranian production has now reached pre-sanctions levels, suggesting that there is scope for Tehran to agree to a production freeze. The global supply glut remains and there will have to be some significant compromise in Algiers if the $50 is to be recovered.

German July manufacturing orders rose 0.2%: This was less than hoped and even with June revised marginally higher to -0.3% m/m from -0.4% m/m, the annual rate remained stuck in negative territory. Still, the -0.7% y/y reading is a clear improvement from the -3.0% y/y in the previous month, although looking at the dip in the manufacturing PMI, and the sharp downward revision to the German services PMI growth projections going ahead will have to be revised again and the weaker orders data will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB. Interestingly though, the breakdown showed a marked rebound in foreign orders inflow, which suggests Brexit and the weaker Pound are not to blame. Domestic orders meanwhile dropped -3.0%.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Non-Manufacturing PMI – 14:00 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 55.7 from 55.5. Last July’s spike to 59.6 set a new post-recession high. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed. The August Philly Fed index rose to 2.0 from -2.9, but the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 47.2 from 51.3.

• NZD GDT Price Index – The fortnightly Global Dairy Trade Index is published and with a strong recovery last time to 12.7% sparking a rally in the NZD, today’s data will be followed closely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. TODAY we will explaining the world of Commodities and analyzing many live charts from Oil and Gold to Coffee and Sugar. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2016.



FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan closing down (-0.41% at 17,012) as the Yen strengthened on media reports casting doubt on the BoJ’s willingness to add further easing. The ASX, which underperformed yesterday, moved higher as the Aussie weakened as growth slowed down in the second quarter. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are posting gains, pointing to opening gains, on stock markets, after yesterday’s broad move south in late trade. Bund and Gilt futures moved higher yesterday, with Bunds outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing going into tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The weak German production figures (see below) will only add to the Bund move. The European calendar has U.K. production data for July, seen falling -0.1%. The Swedish Riksbank meeting will be watched carefully as a precursor to tomorrow’s ECB meeting and the central bank are likely to keep the Repo rate steady at -0.5%.

FX Summary: The dollar has continued to ebb as Fed expectations cycled back towards the no-case-for-a-September hike following weaker than expected ISM services and LMCI data yesterday, which resonated with the sub-forecast jobs report on Friday. USD-JPY, which has continued to pace broader dollar declines, descended for a third straight session, logging a 12-day low at 101.19 as it extended losses from Friday’s peak at 104.32. The pair has breached below the 20-day moving average, at 101.55, which now reverts as resistance, ahead of 101.93-95 and the 50-day moving average at 102.66. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also fell, causing some indigestion on the Tokyo stock exchange, where the Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.4% loss, underperforming regional peers. Elsewhere, dollar softness saw EUR-USD and AUD-USD edge out respective 12-day highs at 1.1264 and 0.7688. Cable settled slightly below the eight-week peak it saw yesterday, at 1.3445.

Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President John Williams: Low level of long-term yields is not just because of fed policy, a ‘reasonable person’ would expect US rates to rise gradually over time. Makes sense to raise rates “sooner rather than later” Inflation expected to rise to 2% in next two years and unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% over the next twelve months. Now is the time to consider new inflation target and “actively study new policy options”.

German July industrial production dropped -1.5%: A much more pronounced decline than even we expected and our forecast for a -0.4% m/m drop was already far below consensus, with Bloomberg predicting a 0.1% m/m rise. In fact this was the steepest decline in almost 2 years. June was revised up, but this didn’t prevent the annual rate to drop into negative territory in July. The correction may partly reflect the usual volatility over the summer, as school holidays in Germany are staggered throughout the states and differently timed every year, which means different timings for the industrial rich states can distort data. Still, with the orders trend also disappointing, and manufacturing sentiment coming off, the data adds to signs that the German economy is cooling.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• UK Inflation Report – 09:00 GMT – Governor Carney and members of the MPC testify before the UK Parliaments Treasury Committee (for approximately 2 hours). Expect some tough questioning from the members as some perceive the BOE’s actions inappropriate, this will be vigorously defended by the Governor and volatility for GBP pairs can be expected.

 

• BOC Rate Statement – 14:00 GMT – The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 0.50%. The cautiously optimistic outlook on growth and inflation is expected to remain, as the Q2 GDP report was consistent with an expected rebound in Q3 GDP.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

 

Date : 12th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2016.



Main Macro Events This Week

United States: This week’s U.S. calendar includes several interesting releases that could have some bearing on the Fed’s decision on September 21. The Treasury budget deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to ease to -$98.0 bln in August from -$112.8 bln in July,. The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due (Wednesday), along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices -0.1% in August, while there may be an EIA inventory correction from huge storm-related draws last week that bolstered crude oil above $47 bbl before the boom went bust Friday. On tap next is August retail sales (Thursday), forecast to rise 0.2% or 0.3% ex-auto, with a downward bias given weak auto sales and mixed employment. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.0 in September vs 2.0, whereas the Empire State may rise to -1.0 in September vs -4.2. Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to 270k), with August industrial production to shrink 0.5% vs 0.7% and capacity use dipping to 75.5% from 75.9%. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0.1% in July vs 0.2%. August CPI is seen rising 0.1% headline (Friday) and 0.2% core, while September Michigan sentiment (preliminary) rises to 90.5 from 89.8 in August.

Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in shipment values during July following the 0.8% gain in June. The August existing home sales report (Thursday) and the August Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) also feature. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins (Wednesday) will present a lecture at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

Europe: After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release (Tuesday) closely. We are looking for an improvement to 3.0 from 0.5 in the previous month, which would mean the number of those optimistic about the outlook continued to rise. The rest of the week’s data calendar focuses mostly on final inflation readings for August, with the German HICP (Tuesday) expected to be confirmed at 0.3%, the Spanish (Tuesday) at -0.3%, the French (Wednesday) at 0.4% y/y and the Italian (Wednesday) at -0.3% y/y, which should leave the overall Eurozone number on Thursday unrevised from the preliminary reading at 0.2% y/y. Even core inflation at 0.8% y/y remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. ECB President Draghi speaks at an award ceremony on Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement.

UK: The BoE meets on policy (announcing Thursday) for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s policy bazooka. Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers (Tuesday), employment figures covering July and August (Wednesday), and official August retail sales (Thursday). We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0.7% y/y from 0.6% in July, and the core CPI reading to 1.4% form 1.3%, with the effects of post-Brexit vote weakness in sterling starting to impact. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, as is the more timely claimant count rate, at 2.2%. Retail sales are seen dipping 0.2% m/m in August, correcting after the strong a July, when sales rose 1.4% m/m.

China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively dueMonday, followed by August industrial production (Tuesday), which is expected to inch up to 6.1% y/y from 6.0% previously. August retail sales (Tuesday) are penciled in at 10.1% y/y from 10.2%. August fixed investment (Tuesday) is seen slowing to a 7.8% y/y clip from 8.1%.

Japan: The Q3 MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected to reveal deterioration to -13.0 from -11.1 in Q2. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.0% y/y.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. Assistant Governor, Economics, Kent delivers a speech at the Bloomberg Breakfast Address (Tuesday). Head of Payments Policy Department, Tony Richards, speaks at the 26th Annual Credit Law Conference (Wednesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle takes the podium in London at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference (Wednesday). August employment (Thursday) is expected to improve 20.0k after the 26.2k rise in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7% in August, identical to the 5.7% seen in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 19th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2016.



FX News Today

Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with the focus on the FOMC and BoJ. And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. With some policymakers starting to doubt the effectiveness of the low and negative rate structures, there’s increased uncertainty over just what will be announced, with the BoJ having perhaps the biggest opportunity to surprise with either its decisions on rates or QE purchases.
United States: The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) dominates the landscape. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment. Indeed, Fed funds futures are suggesting a very low probability of less than 15%. A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. The September NAHB homebuilder survey leads off (Monday) and is expected to hold steady at 60. August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected falling to a 1.193 mln pace, after two consecutive monthly gains. Existing home sales (Thursday) should bounce 1.7% to a 5.480 mln. Weekly jobless claims, the August leaders index, the July FHFA home price index, and the KC Fed manufacturing survey are also dueThursday, with the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing report onFriday.
Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however, it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday.
Canada: CPI and retails sales highlight the week’s slate of economic data, which also includes wholesale trade. Total CPI (Friday) is seen expanding at a 1.4% and The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is projected to moderate to 2.0%. Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise 0.3% with the the ex-autos retail aggregate is expected to gain 0.6%. Wholesale shipments (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.2% in July. Bank of Canada governor Poloz speaks Tuesday in Quebec City, with a press conference to follow.
Europe: This week’s data calendar is the timely set of confidence indicators in the form of preliminary September PMI readings (Friday). Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5 and an uptick in the services reading to 52.9, and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8. Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.
UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September (Thursday), where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Wednesday), as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday. The pound finished the day with a 1.8% loss to the dollar and with an average decline of 1.4% against the G3 currencies.
China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week.
Japan: is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday, and again on Thursday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, bookending the two-day BoJ meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday). The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The August trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 250.0 bln from the revised 513.6 bln in July. The July all-industry index (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% m/m versus the June 1.0% increase.
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting (Tuesday), when policymakers held rates steady at 1.50% and shifted to a more balanced policy bias (from a tilt toward further easing). There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due (Tuesday).
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 20th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 September 2016.



FX News Today

FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with some bourses swinging between gains and losses, as traders hold back ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and BoJ announcements. The Nikkei closed down -0.16%. The bullish sentiment on European stock markets yesterday that was underpinned by hopes that the BoJ could add some stimulus and a pick up in oil prices, already fizzled out in the later U.S. session as the oil prices dipped again and with the front end WTI futures falling further today and threatening to fall below USD 43 per barrel, risk appetite has faded. U.S. stock futures are posting slight gains, but the FTSE 100 is down, suggesting that European markets are poised for a correction in catch up trade. The European calendar is virtually empty.

RBA Minutes: “Rising AUD would complicate rebalancing of the economy”, following slow down on mining investment. The decline in the AUD since 2013 has “continued to support traded sector of economy”. Cost pressures and wage growth set to remain low and little change expected in unemployment in coming months. “Economy growing in line with potential” and current stance on policy “consistent with growth and inflation targets”. Looks like its neutral for longer and same tone as other “data dependent” central banks. AUDUSD 0.7540 and capped by the 20 DMA.

German PPI: the German PPI for August missed expectations coming in at -0.1% (0.0% expected). Slightly softer than hoped and not good news for ECB. EURUSD remains in tight overnight range pivoting around 1.1170.

U.S. NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index jumped to 65 in September: This was up 6 points from 59 in August (revised down from 60 previously). It’s the highest since last October, which was also a 65 print, and was 61 a year ago. The 2016 range has been from 58 to 65, and over the past ten years has ranged from 65 to 34 over the past decade. The future sales index also rose to 71 from 66. The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 48 from 44. All four regions posted gains, led by the West which soared to 82 from 68.

FX Update: All quiet on the forex front, with the main currency pairings having posted ultra narrow ranges as market participants remain on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions. Consensus expectations are the Fed will refrain from easing, while there are some expectations that the BoJ to trim its -0.1% reserve deposit rate further into negative territory while skewing QQE purchases toward the shorter and middle parts of the maturity spectrum to facilitate curve steepening, with the aim of mitigating the negative effects the program has had on financial intermediation. 60% of respondents to a Reuters expected the BoJ to move this week, though there was some discord among those anticipating action in the extent of what the central bank will do. With the costs and benefits of the three-year old QQE program fading, many expect a shift in policy focus to interest rates and NIRP. How markets react is a tough call, though we think the risks for USD-JPY are to the downside. Past BoJ easing measures in the Abenomics era have generally failed to weaken the yen, and the central bank would have to be aggressive if it wants a weaker currency.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• BOJ Outlook – The two day meeting started earlier today and the announcement and press conference are scheduled for03:00 GMT on Wednesday. There are expectations for a further cut in deposit rate and an expansion of the QE asset purchasing facility. However, in recent days there has also been market chatter that the BOJ may be concerned about the sustainability of its current stimulus programme.

• FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting starts later with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively on Wednesday. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 21st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20st September 2016.



FX News Today

The BoJ: Announced a policy framework overhaul, which it called “QQE with yield curve control.” It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,”where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. The BoJ said the scale of the QQE program remained on hold, and that overall asset purchases would remain “more or less in line with the current pace,” although the maturity target has been abolished. The timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target has been set, quite simply, as “the earliest possible time.” Aside from detailing the new framework, the BoJ also provided an assessment of the failure to have pushed CPI to 2%, blaming “exogenous factors,”including the fall in oil prices, sluggish global demand and financial market volatility. On the economy, the BoJ said recovery “is likely to remain slow.” The yen dove nearly 1% as markets digested the new framework see below.

FX Update: USDJPY is registering a near 1% gain as the London interbank take to their desks. After initially dipping as the BoJ refrain from extending its NIRP policy, the pair rallied as the yen fell across-the-board as markets digested an overhaul in the BoJ’s policy framework. It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. USD-JPY clocked an eight-day high at 102.78. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also vaulted higher. Whether the new framework will general sustained yen weakness remains to be seen. Spill over dollar strength following the BoJ’s announcement drove EUR-USD to a three-week low at 1.1123.

BoC’s Poloz said it is unclear if the bank will cut its forecast in October, responding to a question in his recently started Q&A with the press. He noted that the export gain in July provides some reassurance, but also said weakness in export data is unexplained.Keeping his constructive tone intact, he said he expects a large recovery in the level of non-commodity exports. As for the downward shift in inflation risks, he explained that the output gap and exports are behind the downward tilt. But the output gap is the biggest factor in lower inflation outlook he said. Responding to a question on housing, he said a slowdown in one housing market is rarely contagious. As for the renewal of the 2% inflation targeting mandate that is due in upcoming weeks, he said it is the Finance Department’s decision to make. It is a pretty high bar for changing the target, but it is not impossible, the Governor said. And repeating his previous view, he said the adjustment to the oil shock will take several years.

European Outlook: Japanese stocks jumped higher leading broad gains on other European markets after the Bank of Japan decided not to cut interest rates further. The reaction shows that markets and especially banks were weary of a further deepening of negative rates, which banks and insurers in particular are struggling to cope with. The Bank said it is shifting to a greater focus on the shape of the yield curve saying that it will increase bond purchases “more of less in line with the current pace” of 80 trillion yen per year. It also kept the door open to another rate cut. The Yen was under pressure after the decision, which underpinned the outperformance of Japanese stock markets. U.S. and U.K. futures are also higher ahead of the Fed decision, which is likely to see policy unchanged leaving the focus on the forward guidance. Oil prices are also higher, although the front end WTI future is down from earlier highs of over USD 45 per barrel at currently USD 44.89. European markets will look ahead to the Fed decision, but the local calendar also has U.K. public finance data. ECB’s Praet meanwhile stressed again this morning that the central bank will maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation.

Main Macro Events Today 
 

• FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting started yesterday with the announcement and press conference scheduled for18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively later today. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.

• RBNZ – Expectations are for no change in the base rate from its current 2.00% level, still by far the the highest in the G10 countries.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 22nd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd September 2016.



FX News Today

The FOMC: No change and no surprise the result was a bit of a tangled web of contradictions. The Fed said the case for a rate hike had strengthened, though policymakers for the “time being” decided to hold off and allow the economy “some room to run.” Yet there were three dissents (Mester, George and Rosengren) in favour of an immediate hike, indicating acrimony beneath the surface as on the other side three members see the possibility of no rate increase this year. The Fed’s own economic and policy projections were mostly downgraded, seemingly at odds with their hair-trigger outlook. Amidst the contradictions, the Fed has maintained that it is not politically motivated, which could ruffle more than a few feathers in the event of a hike as soon as November. In her press conference MRs Yellen maintained that all meetings were “live” and the move to keep interest rates on hold “does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy” but was due to a slow uptake of labour-market slack and inflation below the 2% target. CMEGroup’s federal funds futures now shows a 60% chance of a rate rise in December.
RBNZ: Also no change and suggested a decline in the NZD is needed, monetary policy to remain accommodative and “further easing will be required”. Weak global growth and low rates continues to put upward pressure on NZD and makes it difficult for the RBNZ to reach its 2% inflation target. Strong domestic growth supported by high levels of migration (which is also keeping earnings growth down) tourism and construction. House price inflation remains “excessive”. Outlook for the key Dairy season remains “uncertain”. NZDUSD rose to 0.7370 before falling back to 0.7330.
FX Update: USDJPY extended into one-month low territory under 100.10 as markets digest yesterday’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions and guidance of yesterday. To recap, the BoJ overhauled its policy framework, introducing “QQE with yield curve control” and an “inflation-overshooting commitment,” but the main policy rate and the -0.1% rate on selected reserves, and other policy variables, were left unchanged — there was no actually increase in stimulus. As for the Fed, while saying the case for tightening had increased, leaving the door open to a hike by year-end, the pace of tightening envisaged in 2017 was reduced relative to guidance given in June. USDJPY has duly reacted with a downward shift. The August-16 low at 99.54 provides the next downside target, and below here is the post-Brexit vote low at 98.98. Japanese policymakers won’t be liking the appreciation of the yen, so we can expect more rhetorical warnings, but it will hard for them to justify actual interventions while yield differentials are moving in favour of further USDJPY declines. Outside the case of USDJPY, the dollar is broadly lower, showing about an average 0.3% decline versus the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar currently. GBPUSD formed a tweezer bottom on last night’s daily candle.
European Outlook: Asian stocks rallied (Japan was closed for a holiday), following on from gains on Wall Street after the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday. The FOMC said the case for a hike “has strengthened”, but decided to stay put for the time being, FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher, but U.S. stock futures are already in the red again. Bund futures managed to recover losses in after hour trade and in the wake of the Fed decision and could see some early gains, after yesterday’s sell off, although stock moves and the realization that neither BoJ nor ECB are eager to delve further into negative interest rate territory, should keep a lid on gains. Gilts are likely to continue to outperform as the BoE keeps the door open to another cut. Oil prices are higher, with the front end WTI future currently trading at USD 45.77 per barrel. The European calendar starts to pick up with French national business confidence numbers, the U.K’s CBI industrial Trends survey and preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers in the afternoon. The ECB releases its latest economic bulletin, although the articles have already been published in advance this week so there shouldn’t be big surprises.

Main Macro Events Today 

• US Initial Jobless claims – Initial claims data for the week of September 17 is out later and should show the headline holding at 260k (median 262k), steady from last week and just above 259k in the week of September 3. Claims look poised to average 260k in September from 262k in August and 260k in July. Expectations for nonfarm payrolls to be up 170k in September with the unemployment rate steady from 4.9%.

• Draghi and Carney speeches – Both central bank heads are due to speak later today. First up is President Draghi at 13:00 GMT at the ESRB in Frankfurt and later Governor Carney (17:00 GMT) in Berlin.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 23rd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd September 2016.



FX News Today

US Data Reports: Revealed weak August data for existing home sales and leading indicators, but a tight initial claims report for the BLS survey week of September that left mixed signals that were positive on net, with aid from a 0.5% July rise in the FHFA home price index. The 0.9% August existing home sales drop to a 5.33 mln rate left a Q3 trimming of Q2 gains, though the median price decline to $240,200 was largely seasonal and left that figure close to the $247,600 all-time high in June. The 0.2% August leading indicators drop tracked estimates, with weakness that reflects declines in the factory sensitive sectors. Most importantly, an 8k initial claims drop to 252k in the BLS survey week left that measure just above the 42-year low of 248k in mid-April, as claims tighten into the end of Q3 to signal upside risk for the 170k September nonfarm payroll estimate.

U.S. VIX equity volatility slumped 10%: It fell below 12.0 after the Fed on Wednesday and that’s put the VIX within a hair of 11.65 September lows compared to highs of 20.51 earlier in the month when the ECB held rates pat rather than easing again as expected (nothing to see here, no correlation). Year lows of 11.02 appear to be within reach, while life lows of 8.2 lie below as the markets continue to disbelieve the “cry wolf” hawkish Fedspeak, though 3 dissenters would suggest the Fed is very close to a second hike. Should the pendulum swing back again, that could put the 26.72 Brexit high back on the radar. Meanwhile, after bottoming at 2,119.1 in September, the S&P 500 looks poised to take another stab at 2,193.81 life highs set on August 15, barring a swing in the polls ahead of November elections.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down (Nikkei closed -0.32%) . Australia’s ASX outperformed, as mining and energy stocks and especially gold led the way. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are also slightly in the red and oil prices are down from highs of over USD 46 per barrel. Consolidation after yesterday/s celebration of the Fed’s steady hand policy, seems to be the order of the day, but while European stocks are likely to see some correction investors seem to be breathing more easily now. The 10-year Bund future already moved off highs in after hour trade yesterday and yields, which dropped sharply in Europe yesterday, are likely to pick up somewhat. The European calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for September, which we expect to stabilise after the mixed August numbers. The final reading for French Q2 GDP meanwhile is not expected to hold any surprise.

FX Update: The dollar has firmer back some following yesterday’s underperformance as the fizz of the post-FOMC risk-on theme abated. EURUSD has ebbed back to the 1.1200 area after peaking yesterday at an eight-day at 1.1257, and Cable has breached below yesterday’s low in making1.3030. The yen also recouped from weakness, with the currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market performance. USDJPY clocked a two-session high at 101.24 earlier in Tokyo, and has since ebbed back to the 100.90 area. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also softer. Commodity and emerging market currencies have also given back some of the gains seen in the wake of the FOMC announcement. Not much near-term downside potential in the dollar as market participants will, like the Fed, be data dependent in forming their commitment.



Main Macro Events Today 


 

• Eurozone PMI – After the mixed August numbers, expectations are for a stabilization in September with only a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5, from 51.7 in the previous month, which should partly be compensated by the expected uptick in the services reading to 52.9 from 52.8 and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8, versus 52.9 in August.

• Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales – July Retail Sales are expected to pick up from -0.1% reading in June to 0.1% (MoM) whilst CPI YoY for August is also expected to tick up to 1.4% from 1.3%. The MoM figure should rise to 0.1% for August from -0.2% in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 27th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to reverse earlier losses and are mostly up on the day, led by Hond Kong where casinos and banks outperformed as traders followed the U.S. presidential debate and judged Clinton the winner. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, after yesterday’s sell off where concerns about Deutsche Bank AG weighed on financial stocks in Europe and a drop in yields hit U.S. banks. Oil prices are down on the day and off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 45 per barrel ahead of the OPEC meeting, with some lingering hopes of an agreement on output caps. Gold hit highs of USD 1341 yesterday before settling to 1334. The European calendar has German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as EMU M3 money supply growth and the U.K.’s CBI distributive trade survey.

FX Update: The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign. Trump’s protectionist views on trade (he said during the debate that NAFTA was the worse trade deal that the U.S. had ever signed) doesn’t sit too well with markets. The peso rallied by over 1.5%, driving USDMXN to an eight-day lows below 19.50. USDCAD, meanwhile, dove back under 1.3200 as the Canadian dollar rallied, having earlier logged a six-month peak at 1.3275. USDJPY lifted as stocks rebounded in Asia, with the pair recouping toward 101.00 after earlier logging a one-month low at 100.08. EURUSD remained mired in a narrow range in the mid 1.12s.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan would have been comfortable with a September hike, he said in comments at an energy sector event. Kaplan is not a voter this year, but does vote on the FOMC in 2017. He remains concerned about the distortions created by low rates. He wants to wait to see how the next three months unfold and added he’ll be hawkish at times, and dovish at times. Fed governor Tarullowould like a tougher capital plan for large U.S. banks, while affording a little relief for smaller lenders, estimating that the largest banks would likely hold “significantly more” capital under forthcoming “stress test” reforms from the Fed.

ECB’s Draghi: Monetary policy has been very effective, adding that the policy effect is not yet “exhausted”, while stressing again that low interest rates are a symptom of low growth. At the same time, Draghi said the ECB never discussed monetary financing, although of course the German legal challenges against some of Draghi’s emergency measures show that not everyone shares the same definition of that.

US Data Reports: Revealed a 7.6% new home sales drop to a still-solid 609k August rate that trimmed the hefty July pop to an upwardly-revised 659k (was 654k) expansion-high to leave a respectable sales path into Q3. Most housing metrics performed well through the spring and summer season despite weak residential construction in the Q2 GDP report, and weak monthly new construction figures through July that imply residential construction weakness in Q3 as well. We also saw a largely expected rise in the Dallas Fed index to -3.7 in September from -6.2, leaving both an upward trend and a 21st consecutive reading in negative territory. The component data were stronger than the headline, and the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose to a respectable 51.2 from 50.7 in August.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Consumer Confidence – September consumer confidence is out later and should reveal a headline decline to 98.0 from 101.1 in August which is still above July’s 96.7. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for September was tepid with the headline holding steady at 89.8 from August and the IBD/TIPP Poll declined to 46.7 from 48.4 in August.

 

• Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speech – Mr Fischer is due to give a speech in Washington with the whimsical title “Why Study Economics”. Any departures from script are unlikely but following Jackson Hole anything is possible.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 28th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are heading south, led by a slide in Japanese markets, (Nikkei closed down -1.31%) as more than half the companies on the benchmark traded without the right to the next dividend, a biannual event in Japan that tends to weigh on markets. Elsewhere financials remained under pressure as concerns over Deutsche Bank AG continue to weigh on the sector. Oil prices are volatile and the front end WTI future has fallen below USD 45 per barrel, as investors scale back hopes of an agreement on output limits at the OPEC meeting. Gold suffered at decline to $1325 from over $1338. U.S. stock futures are down, but the FTSE 100 future is managing slight gains. The European calendar remains relatively quiet, German consumer confidence has already reported and missed expectations (10.2) coming in at 10.0. EURUSD trades at 1.1208.

Oil headlines from Algeria: No agreement to cap or freeze oil output as early as today, but that’s not ruled out for subsequent meetings, largely in line with earlier reports. The Saudis said the gap among OPEC countries is narrowing and Russia will meet with them again in October. Iran, Libya and Nigeria should be allowed to produce at maximum levels and once that’s agreed a freeze agreement consensus could be reached by November. Meanwhile the Saudis are investing in spare capacity and can survive at current oil price levels, and don’t see the need for a significant adjustment or cut, while Russia will maintain flat supply in the meantime.

Fedspeak: As expected no surprises from Fed’s VC Fischer from his speech, however, in the following Q&A session he said that he doesn’t want to raise rates too much, noting that 3% wage gains would be consistent with a “reasonable” rate of inflation and we’re beginning to see the fruits of a high pressure labor market. This is consistent with Fischer’s interest in being preemptive on rate hikes, though Brexit and mixed data has hijacked the tightening agenda since he first wanted to do so.

US Data Reports: Revealed a surprising September consumer confidence surge to a 104.1 cycle-high led by the present situation index that bucked weak September readings for other confidence surveys, alongside a small September rise in the Richmond Fed index to a still weak -8 from -11 in August. We saw a slightly larger ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rise to 50.8 from a 3-year low of 49.7, with gains in all the components except inventories and employment, but with a particularly large employment index drop to a -13 new expansion-low from 7. We appear to be on the cusp of an inventory reversal that will lift GDP growth, though the rise will likely not be captured until Q4.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Durable Goods – August durable goods orders expected to fall 1.4%, Shipments expected at -0.5%. Inventories expected unchanged. Durable goods ex- transport expected to fall -0.4%.

• Yellen testifies and Draghi speaks – Following Mr Fischer yesterday, today his boss Mrs Yellen testifies in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation. Later Mr Draghi speaks in the German Bundestag with his thoughts on the current developments in the Euro area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 29th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th September 2016.



FX News Today
European Outlook: Energy stocks pushed up Asian markets after OPEC agreed to cut oil production and limit daily output to 32.5-33 million barrels. The front end WTI future is currently trading above USD 47per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also celebrating the deal, which will see European stocks extending yesterday’s gains and is likely to weigh on bond futures. The European data calendar is very busy today, with preliminary inflation data for September for Spain and Germany, as well as German unemployment and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator. The U.K. has BoE mortgage approvals, consumer credit and money supply data.

Oil headlines from Algeria: Oil prices surged following the surprise OPEC agreement on production cuts. USOil rallied 5% to $47.46 and UK Oil was up to highs over $49.00. The production cut was between 240k and 740k barrels per day, which will limit supply to between 32.5 mln and 33 mln barrels per day. It was a surprise because Saudi Arabia had dampened market expectations for a deal ahead of the meeting in Algiers. This is the first coordinated action to lift crude prices in eight years, and marks a shift in strategy of the group to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as shale field drillers. Markets will be paying close attention to the implementation of the production cut, particularly given the lack of information about how much each producer will curtail output. OPEC next meets officially at the end of November.

ECB’s Draghi: ECB countered threat of new “great depression”.Defending the ECB’s policies to German parliamentarians Draghi said after a visit to the lower house that other policies must contribute much more decisively while the ECB must allow its measures to develop for full impact. The central bank president stressed that the ECB doesn’t see overheating in the Eurozone or German economies although he admitted that low rates for long may risk asset-overvaluation risk and that ECB policy is not the main factor in low bank profitability.

Fedspeak: Governor Yellen: The rate hike outlook said that in the event of economic overheating the Fed is prepared to adjust policy accordingly, as the jobless rate could fall farther and continued job creation at the current pace could lead to overheating. There’s no meaningful upward pressure on inflation, however, and she’s pleasantly surprised that the jobless rate has not fallen of late and there’s “no fixed time table for interest rate moves”. Later Loretta Mester noted the risks in waiting too long to raise rates and worried that further delays may force a steeper trajectory in the future. She explained her dissent at the September 20, 21 FOMC, saying the underlying fundamentals supporting the economy are sound, which has been “demonstrated by the resiliency it has shown through a numbers of bumps along the road of expansion.” Some of those bumps are, the gyrations in the financial markets at the start of the year, the slowing in China, economic weakness in Europe, the large appreciation in the dollar between mid 2014 and the start of 2016, and the uncertainties over Brexit. And the economy is expected to continue to show strength too. She reiterated the maxim that monetary policy works with a lag, so policy actions need to be taken before the goals are met. EarlierNeel Kashkari had stated just how much slack remains in the labor market is the critical question, while the economy should have continued moderate growth of about 2%, while global investors near-term see Treasuries as a safe haven. While the U.S. long-term needs to get its fiscal house in order, it’s not appropriate for the Fed to hold back in order to force the hand of fiscal authorities. Kashkari also found it “alarming” that issues at Wells Fargo could have been going on for years and no one was aware. Finally, Charles Evans reiterated the likelihood that rates remain lower for longer, in his prepared remarks to community bankers. Policy will be normalized at a very gradual pace. The low rate scenario means the Fed will have less room to respond to downside shocks. The dovishly inclined Evans is not a voter this year but rotates into that position in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US GDP – The third release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal an upward revision for the headline to 1.5% from 1.1% in the second release, 1.2% in the first release and 0.8% in Q1 of this year. Among the revisions there is likely to be upward revisions for construction of $8 bln, consumption up $4 bln, net exports up $4 bln and intellectual property up $2 bln. Looking ahead to Q3, the headline could be stronger at 2.2%.

• Governor Yellen – Following her testimony in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation yesterday, the FED chair is in Kanas City speaking at the Minority Bankers Forum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 30th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: The rally on stock markets didn’t last long and while most European markets still managed to close with gains yesterday, Deutsche Bank (down 7% at one point yesterday) concerns dragged the DAX lower and are also overshadowing markets elsewhere. Wall Street closed with losses and in Asia, lenders were also under pressure, with Nikkei and Hang Seng down more than 1.4% and only mainland Chinese markets managing to carve out gains. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down as the pressure on Deutsche Bank is building with the sell off in shares of course only adding to the problem and creating a viscous circle. European markets have opened down 1%. Oil prices meanwhile are down on the day, but remain above USD 47 per barrel following the OPEC deal and Gold traded under USD 1316 before recovering to $1323. Released overnight U.K. GfK consumer confidence came in better than expected and improved to -1 to -7 in the previous month. In a speech by Mr. Kuroda to the Japanese parliament he explained that the BOJ are internally debating exit strategy from ultra-easy policy but speaking specifically about those means too hastily could cause confusion in markets. The calendar also has German retail sales at the start of the session, French consumer spending and the final reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as Eurozone unemployment. The focus, however, will likely be on Eurozone inflation data for September, which is expected to tick higher on base effects.

German retail sales dropped -0.4% m/m in August, while July was revised markedly down to 0.5% m/m from 1.7% m/m reported initially. The annual rate still jumped to 3.7% y/y after falling in July. The three months trend rate also improved. Consumer confidence remains at very high levels and the Ifo index also reported an rise in retail sentiment, but official retail sales, while highly volatile and subject to heavy revisions, only cover part of overall consumption, and the data have only limited bearing for overall consumption trends, which still look solid.

ECBspeak: Visco: QE could last beyond March 2017. The Italian central bank governor hinted that the QE program could be extended beyond the current timeframe to impact inflation and that the inflation may have to be temporarily overshot. At the same time he stressed that QE makes reforms easier not harder and that in Italy, high debt not EU rules are is weighing on budget policies. It is true of course that the ECB’s low interest rate policy is giving governments more room to manoeuvre and thus should make it easier to implement reforms, at the same time though, the low rates also gloss over existing problems and make it a less pressing need for governments to reduce deficits and debt, as the ECB’s program is keeping rates low and reduces market pressure on governments.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari saw no alarm bells that a recession is imminent and no urgency in raising rates with inflation low, but by the same token waiting too long on raising rates was less of a risk that hiking too soon. In any case, if inflation does rise, the Fed has all the tools it needs to bottle it up. He also said that the Fed is not out of ammunition if the economy is hit by recession and concurred that politics is not factoring in at all to Fed decisions. About par from moderate course from Kashkari.



Main Macro Events Today 


 

• EMU September Inflation – EMU Sep HICP inflation expected to rise to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y in the previous month, with less negative base effects from energy prices the main driving factor behind the expected uptick. This was already reflected in German and Spanish numbers yesterday but while base effects are lifting the annual rate, readings still remain far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So while the risk of a deflationary spiral is becoming ever more remote, the data will do little to stop the ECB from continuing with its current expansionary policy stance.

• Canada July GDP – Expected to grow 0.3% in July after the 0.6% surge in June that followed the 0.6% plunge in May. Mining, oil and gas production is on track to add to GDP growth, and this could provide an upside surprise. While energy exports values slipped 0.8% in July, prices contracted as the IPPI for energy and petroleum products fell 3.5% m/m. Meanwhile, the manufacturing report’s 2.5% gain in petro and coal production was due to higher volumes at several refineries. The separate real Q3 GDP measure is seen rebounding 3.2% in Q3 (q/q, saar) after the 1.6% drop in Q2.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 3rd October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2016.



FX News Today

United States: The calendar highlighted by September nonfarm payrolls, (Friday) which are expected to increase by 170k, with a 160k private payroll gain. Forecast risk is seen as downward, however, as weaker claims and producer sentiment could weigh on the headline. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.9% since June. The workweek is expected to tick up to 34.4 from 34.3 last month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.6% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.2% for the month following a 0.1. Also on tap are several other releases worthy of consideration, including ISM manufacturing (Monday), which may bubble back over the 50 boom-bust line in September, having stumbled hard to 49.4 in August. Construction spending may rise 0.4% in August from unchanged in July. September vehicle sales are expected to grow 0.5% to a 17.0 mln pace, up from August, but down from the 17.8 mln 2016 peaks in January and July. The schedule resumes with MBA mortgage applications (Wednesday) and the ADP employment survey forecast to post a 160k print for September vs 177k. The August trade balance may widen to -$43.4 bln vs -$39.5 bln and the ISM non-manufacturing index is set to rise to 53.5 in September vs 51.4. Factory goods orders dip 0.3% in August vs a 1.9% July gain. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 6k to 260k (Thursday) for the October 1 week. Along with employment, wholesale trade and consumer credit (Friday) will round out the week.

Fedspeak resumes with Lacker (hawk) on the economic outlook (Tuesday), followed by Evans(dove) on current economic events and policy. Kashkari (moderate) introduces a child development program (Thursday) followed by Lacker (again) meeting with students followed by a speech on Fed governance. Fed VC Fischer (Friday) speaks on the economy and regulation, while Mester (hawk) discusses “Fed Communications” . Fed Governor Brainard (dove) takes part in an IIF panel on “Blockchain Technology”.

Canada: The calendar picks-up this week, with several heavy hitters due out that will provide further indications of how the economy fared after oil sands production returned to normal in July. The August trade report (Wednesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.3 bln from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in July. A 1.0% increase in exports is anticipated following the 3.4% surge in July. Employment (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k gain in September jobs following the 26.2k bounce in August. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0% in September. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey (Friday) is projected to reveal an improvement in the overall outlook, but with a still ample reserve of caution among resource sector firms and related businesses. Q2. Building permit values (Thursday) are seen rising 0.5% m/m in August after the 0.8% gain in July. The Ivey PMI (Friday) rounds out the week, with the index expected to improve to 55.0 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis from 52.3 in August.

Europe: Data releases include the final reading of September PMIs with the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI expected to be confirmed at 52.6. and the Services reading at 52.1, which should leave the composite at 52.6, unchanged from the preliminary number. The highlight though will be German manufacturing orders for August (Thursday) where we are looking for a rise of 0.5%, after the modest 0.2% m/m expansion in July. July Ifo numbers surprised on the upside and the manufacturing PMI also rebounded, so that the chances are orders picked up again in August. Industrial production (Friday) should show at least a partial rebound from the -1.5% m/m slump in July and rise 0.8% m/m (med 0.9%). The recovery is limping ahead and so far the labor market has remained on an improving trend and against that background consumption should remain underpinned, but even if Eurozone retail sales (Wednesday) are likely to have dropped -0.3% m/m, as a partial correction from the 1.1% m/m gain in July. ECBspeak comes from Draghi,Coeure and Nowotny among others, with Coeure and Draghi attending the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington at the end of the week.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by the PMI reports for September, along with production data for August, which will increase the body of post-Brexit vote hard data. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) is expected to dip to 52.1 after surging to 53.3 in August. The construction PMI is seen nearly steady at 49.0, which would be a fractional decline from August’s 49.2. The services PMI is expected to ebb to 52.0 from 52.9. While the PMIs are thus seen lower, the overall picture would be of a better than most feared performance of the UK economy following the vote to leave the EU.

China: On holiday all week, but has September services PMI (Friday), along with September foreign direct investment, which is seen slowing to a 4.0% y/y versus the 5.7% reading in August.

Japan: September consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely fell to 41.0 from 42.0. September services PMI is due Wednesday, and 1st 20-day September trade data on tap Friday.

Australia: Te Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. Assistant Governor (Economic) Kent participates in a panel in Melbourne (Wednesday). Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to fall 0.5% m/m in August after the 11.3% gain in July. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.4% m/m in August following the flat reading in July. The trade deficit is projected to widen to -A$2.5 bln in August from -A$2.4 bln in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 05th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th October 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses remaining underpinned by a weaker Yen, which is lifting exporters. Hong Kong stocks also extended their rally, in tandem with mainland Chinese markets, amid hopes that China’s economy is stabilising. Elsewhere, however, markets are slightly in the red, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, despite a pick up in oil prices that saw the front end WTI future rising above USD 49 per barrel. Reports that the ECB council is favouring a tapering of QE purchases, if and when stimulus measures come to an end has spooked markets late yesterday and saw Bund futures dropping sharply, while the EUR picked up and gold fell over 3.3% The reports also said QE could still be extended at current levels beyond the current timeframe, but the reaction highlights how reliant markets still are on central bank support and with the EUR rising above 1.12 against the USD again, Eurozone bond and stock markets are likely to feel the pressure at the open. The ongoing weakness of the pound meanwhile will continue to put a floor under the FTSE 100. The calendar today has the final reading of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, expected to be confirmed at 52.1 while the U.K. services PMI is seen falling to 52.0 from 52.9 in August.

ECB said to be nearing a consensus that QE should be tapered gradually before the program ends, according to sources familiar with policymaker deliberations today at the interim Governing Council meeting (cited by newswires). One suggestion was to trim purchases by EUR10 bln per month. When such reductions will begin will depend on the economic outlook. And it was also noted that QE, at the current EUR80 bln pace per month, could be extended beyond the March 2017. The ECB also extended its economic projection horizon by 1 year. Meanwhile, in an emailed statement from the ECB, it was noted the Governing Council “has not discussed these topics.”

FX Update: The euro has remained bid following reports that the ECB is considering tapering its QE program. EURUSD lifted back toward the high seen yesterday after the London close, at 1.1218, while EURJPY rallied to fresh three-week high territory above 115.00. USDJPY also managed to clock a new three-week high, at 102.99, with the dollar itself is being underpinned after Fed’s Lacker said a rate hike is needed to head off a likely increase in inflation. (see more below) The yen itself has remained the short of choice in forex markets with the BoJ still seen on course to expand monetary policy, and with stock markets holding up, although mixed in Asia today. Focus is shifting to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for September, as this will have potential to make or break prospects for Fed tightening by as soon as year-end.

Fedspeak: Lacker: said he would have dissented in September because interest rates “need to rise,” a comment that has sparked some ire on Twitter, though note he’s a non-voter and, thus, was denied the opportunity. He agrees that gradual hikes are the prescription, but warns that the median view of 2 hikes in 2017 is “awfully gradual.” Meanwhile, the IMF’s chief economist says there’s no great danger of the U.S. economy overheating. Yields jumped on earlier hawkish headlines from Lacker, on the heels of those of long time hawk Loretta Mester, yesterday.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Non-Manufacturing ISM – September service sector producer sentiment is out later expectations are for a headline increase to 523 from 51.4 in August. Despite headline improvements in many measures of producer sentiment for the month we saw weaker component data due to an auto sector slowdown and the ongoing inventory unwind which could pose some risk to the release.

 

• US Trade Deficit – August trade data is out today and is expected to reveal a 0.5% contraction for the deficit to -$39.3 bln from -$39.5 bln in July. The release should have exports up 0.6% on the month following a 1.9% increase in July and exports up 0.4% on the month following a 0.8% decline in July. The advance trade report for August revealed a -$58.4 bln deficit for goods from -$58.8 bln in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 6th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th October 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, (Nikkei closed up 0.47% 16,899) with the recent pick up in oil prices is adding support and the front end WTI future may be down slightly on the day, but remains comfortably above USD 49 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are down as the dollar rises, but the FTSE 100 future is up, with the ongoing slide in the pound helping to underpin foreign demand. ECB tapering talk meanwhile is likely to continue to push up yields and weigh on Eurozone stock markets. Against this background the release of the ECB’s account of the last policy meeting will be watched carefully. The European calendar also has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session. Switzerland releases inflation data as well as the KoF autumn economic forecast and the U.K. has labour cost data.

FX Update: The main dollar pairings have eked out narrow ranges so far today. EURUSD has remained in a narrow orbit of 1.1200, while the yen’s recent spell of underperformance, which has been in play since mid last week following the BoJ’s announcement of a new monetary policy framework, has come to a pause today. USDJPY and EURJPY have so far remained under their respective one-month highs seen yesterday at 103.67 and 116.25. The Australian dollar has traded softer despite a narrower than expected Australian trade deficit in August, driven by firmer exports and flat imports, which, following strong figures on retail sales and building approvals earlier in the week, has added to signs that Q3 GDP will be better than previously thought. Higher commodity prices are also pointing to further declines in the deficit in the months September and October. Market focus has squared on tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report release, however, as it carries make or break potential for prospects of a Fed rate hike before year-end. Following yesterday’s U.S. data releases, Fed funds futures were showing a probability for a December hike ofjust over 60%.

US Data Reports: Revealed a modest setback in the August trade deficit to a $40.7 bln gap that can be attributed to a one-off service import boost from the Brazilian Olympics, alongside small upside surprises across the orders, shipments, inventory and equipment data in the August factory goods report, and a hefty September ISM-NMI pop to an 11-month high of 57.1. We also saw a restrained 154k September ADP rise. The mix left the Q3 GDP estimate at 2.5%, though with offsetting component tweaks in trade, equipment spending and inventories, alongside an unchanged 170-5k September payroll estimate for Friday with divergent signals from an ISM-NMI job index pop to 1-year high of 57.2 alongside a lean ADP reading.

Fedspeak: Lacker: said there’s a strong case to increase rates more rapidly, in his comments at Marshall University. That is in line with his remarks on Tuesday on The Economic Outlook, October 2016, and is consistent with what he, and other Fed officials, including Chair Yellen, have indicated since late August. He believes the factors that have limited inflationary pressures have largely played out, with the result that prices are moving toward the Fed’s goal. Meanwhile, he noted that the aggressive use of monetary policy to stimulate the economy can back-fire, in terms of stoking inflation, from whence he outlined the benefits and critical role of a pre-emptive policy approach. Lacker is not a voter this year or in 2017.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Initial Jobless Claims – Expected to creep up to 256K this week from 254k last week.

• ECB MPM minutes – Due to be released at 11:30 GMT. Details of the latest Governing Boards meeting, with factors that influence economic conditions and the factors impacting their interest rate deliberations and decisions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th October 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly lower, with mainland Chinese bourses the notable exception. The Yen strengthened ahead of today’s U.S. jobs data, which weighed on exporters and the ongoing rise in oil prices failed to lift sentiment. the front end WTI future is now trading above USD 50 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are also down, but the FTSE 100 future is moving higher, underpinned by another slide in the pound, as France’s Holland reaffirmed the official EU stance, that access to the single market cannot be separated from the EU’s other key principles, including freedom of movement. So both sides are going into the official negotiations with a hard line stance and while part of this may be posturing it is clear that EU officials fear that abandoning the four key freedoms would set a dangerous precedent and could open the floodgates to a discussion on the general principles of the EU and fundamentally threaten the union, which will make any concessions to the U.K. difficult. U.S. jobs data will overshadow European data releases, which focus on production numbers from Germany, France and the U.K.

FX Update: The pound saw a dramatic dive and recovery during the early Asia session. There seems to be a degree of uncertainty about what the low was. Reuters reported a low of 1.1378 in Cable, since revised to 1.1491. The pair since recouped above 1.2450, which is still two big figures below levels seen at the New York close. The catalyst were remarks from France PM Hollande, who demanded that Britain suffer the consequences of leaving the EU, saying “it is not possible … to leave the EU and get the advantages without the obligations,” otherwise “we would jeopardise the fundamental principles of the EU.” Merkel, too, has this week indicated that the EU fundamental principles, including free movement of people, would be prioritized in upcoming Brexit negotiations. The pound’s outsized movement was greatly exacerbated by the sheer illiquidity of the sterling market in Asian hours. There is also talk of a “fat finger” trade amid the scramble of the interbank market to cover stop and options-related orders.

German industrial production jumped 2.5% August. Much more than expected and even if the strong number is not a total surprise after much better than anticipated manufacturing orders numbers yesterday, and the rise in the Ifo, the data still restores confidence in the German recovery. Especially after the weak July numbers, when production fell back -1.5% m/m, which is more than compensated by the uptick in August. Capital goods production bounced back with a rise of 4.7% m/m, after falling -4.0% m/m in July and the data confirms that developments in the Eurozone mirror that in the U.K. albeit with a month delay as the initial dip on the Brexit referendum was followed by a strong rebound. As even the BoE highlighted though, one shouldn’t put too much faith in these numbers and already dismiss any negative impact from the Brexit scenario, as the long term fallout is still very unclear, especially as both sides are heading for tough divorce negotiations. In Germany at least the volatility over the summer was also due to the unusual constellation of holidays across the states.

ECB Ready to Taper? ECB tapering speculation has spooked markets this week and the panic reaction to a report that merely said officials are nearing consensus to phase out asset purchases gradually rather than letting the program end abruptly highlights the challenges Draghi and Co. face going ahead. Later ECB’s Constancio is reported as saying that the ECB near taper consensus not correct, according to a MNI report, and QE will go on until inflation is back on track to its target. He said further than the council hasn’t discussed anything on QE.



Main Macro Events Today 
 

• US Non-Farm Payroll – Consensus median expectations from Bloomberg and Reuters polls have new jobs at 172,000, Unemployment unchanged at 4.9% and earnings up to 2.5%.

• UK GDP estimates – The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) produce a monthly GDP prediction ahead of official government figures. Last month it was 0.3%. Could be more significant today following the volatile moves in GBP and UK stock markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 10th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2016.




Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Markets will remain nervous amid rising prospects for a Fed rate hike later this year, and in the aftermath of the Sterling “flash crash” on Friday where GBP-USD dropped 6% and moved seven big handles, from 1.2623 to a low of 1.1841., Treasury yields subsequently jumped sharply higher after the September jobs report was deemed good enough to support FOMC claims that the case for a rate hike is strengthening. And though slightly disappointing, and not strong enough to warrant a tightening as soon as November, the 154k rise in September nonfarm payrolls, the increases in the workweek and earnings, and the rise in the labor market participation rate, all added up to increased chance for a 25 bp tightening in December. Fed funds futures are suggesting about a 65% probability of a hike (and only about 15% for action in November). The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) to the September 20, 21 policy meeting will be widely read, but may not really show anything new. There are several important data reports this week that should further underpin tightening forecasts. September retail sales (Friday) are expected to rise a solid 0.7% overall, and 0.5% excluding autos. Trade prices are likely to remain weak, however, with declines of 0.1% for both import and export prices. JOLTS are a Fed favorite, so the August numbers will be scrutinized. Other data this week includes the Consumer sentiment, the Treasury budget, and business inventories. Producer prices are projected to rise 0.3% and Annual rates should rise to 0.8%.

It’s earnings season again too, with Alcoa in its typical leadoff role (Tuesday). Also on tap are Citigroup, JPMorgan, PNC Financial Services, and Wells Fargo (Friday). Fedspeakers this week include Chair Yellen who will be speaking at the Boston Fed’s conference (Friday). Evans andKashkari will be at the podium Tuesday. Dudleyand George are on the slate for Wednesday, while Harker andKashkari speak Thursday, with Rosengren on deck for Friday. PPI for September will also be of interest since inflation is one of the keys to the Fed’s policy decisions.

Canada: Thanksgiving day holiday on Monday. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to improve to a 190.0k annual growth rate in September. The new home price index (Thursday) is seen growing 0.2%. There is nothing on the docket from the Bank of Canada this week, but the October 19 announcement and Monetary Policy Report loom.

Europe: ECB taper talk has been dominating Eurozone markets of late and overshadowing better than expected data releases. The highlight of the data calendar this week will be German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday), which is a difficult call amid ECB tapering talk, U.S. rate hike fears, the slump in GBP and the prospect of a hard Brexit, which counterbalance a surprisingly strong Ifo and jumps in orders and production data in August. Final inflation numbers from Germany (Thursday) and France (Wednesday) are expected at 0.5% y/y. Eurozone industrial production data for August (Wednesday) is likely to show a strong rebound from the -1.1% m/m dip in July, judging by national data.

UK: The overriding focus will remains on Brexit matters. So far, all that’s materially happened is that the UK has voted to leave the EU, but hardline Brexit negotiation stances of both the EU and UK have come into sharp form over the last week. The calendar is very quiet this week. BRC retail sales for September (Tuesday) and the RICS house price index for September (Thursday) highlight, but will be overlooked by sterling markets.

China: reported on Saturday a dip to 52.0 in the September Caixin services PMI from 52.1 in August. It was 50.5 a year ago. On this week’s docket is September loan growth and new yuan loans (during the week). Loans are seen edging up to a 13.1% pace from 13.0% previously. The September trade report (Thursday) should reveal a widening of the surplus to $55 bln from $51.1 bln previously. September CPI (Friday) is expected at 1.7%% y/y from 1.3%, while PPI should come in at -0.1% y/y from -0.8%.

Japan: is closed Monday for Health-Sports Day. The calendar kicks-off on Tuesday with the August current account data which is expected to show an decrease in the surplus to JPY 1,4000 bln. August machine orders (Wednesday) are seen plunging 4.0%. The August tertiary index (Thursday) is penciled in at -0.1% and Friday brings September PPI, which is forecast to rise to -3.3% y/y from -3.6%.

Australia: The calendar is thin as well. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review is the highlight (Friday). As for economic data, housing investment (Tuesday) is expected to fall 1.0% in August after the 4.2% drop in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 11th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th October 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, (Nikkei 225 closed up 0.97%) underpinned by a weaker Yen and the renewed uptick in oil prices yesterday after Russia signalled willingness to join the OPEC output cut. The front end WTI future fell back from highs, but is still trading above USD 51 per barrel. Hong Kong markets underperformed as developers came under pressure amid reports of restrictions in some Chinese cities designed to cool house price inflation. US and European stock futures are also down, signalling some correction on European bourses after yesterday’s oil induced rally. Bund futures meanwhile extended losses during after hour trade and comments from ECB’s Visco that an exit from QE would be data dependent will do little to dampen tapering concerns. ECB’s Mersch meanwhile repeated limits to negative interest rates. Still, with GBP remaining under pressure and inflation risks rising Gilts could well continue to underperform and the 10-year cash yield rise further above 1%. Released overnight, BRC retail sales showed the same store reading lifting 0.4% m/m in September, after a sharp drop in August. Otherwise the calendar focuses on German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to improve further in October (see below)

FX Update: The dollar continued to trade firmer. EURUSD logged a low of 1.1119, putting last Friday’s two-month nadir into reach, while USD-JPY’s rally extended to a peak of 104.04, swinging last Thursday’s six-week peak at 104.16 into scope. Fed tightening expectations having been keeping the dollar bid. Our post-employment data survey of Fed watchers found all respondents expecting a 25 bp rate hike at the December 13-14 policy meeting. Japanese markets and yen market liquidity returned today following yesterday’s public holiday. The yen traded mixed, losing ground to the dollar and euro, buy rising versus the Australian dollar and pound. Sterling came back under the cosh amid continued Brexit angst. The London Times headlined that a “hard Brexit” could cost GBP 66 billion a year.

EU not yielding to May’s “threat”. The U.K. may have hoped that by making clear that Prime Minister May is willing to risk losing access to the single market in order to achieve control over migration from other EU countries the rest of the EU may prompt a softening of the official EU stance, but it is clear that there is no appetite for a change in the treaties and a splitting of the EU’s four freedoms, which include both single market access and the free movement of labour. So the official EU stance remains unchanged to what if was before the Brexit referendum, when then Prime Minister Cameron tried to get further concessions for the U.K. Indeed considering the likely consequences of a change to the EU’s fundamental principles that were enshrined in the treaties, the EU clearly stands to lose more both economically as well as politically, if it were to set a precedence and abandoned the spirit of the treaties to keep the U.K. in the single market.

Fedspeak: Evans (long time dove) speaking in Sydney overnight – Risk of inflation not returning to the FED’s 2% “within acceptable time period” and not rising to 2% goal until roughly 2020. US not yet at full employment and “would not be surprised if there were a US rate hike in December”. The US Economy is on a strong footing, recent jobs report was a pretty good number the Election is not a bar to November hike, …but would “prefer to wait for more economic data”. Strong USD is a challenge for manufacturers, but has lowered import prices.

Main Macro Events Today 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German ZEW investor confidence for October is a difficult call amid ECB tapering talk, U.S. rate hike fears, the slump in GBP and the prospect of a hard Brexit, which counterbalance a surprisingly strong Ifo and jumps in orders and production data in August. On balance expectations are for a rise in the headline reading to 4.0, which would confirm the ongoing improvement in sentiment with the number of those seeing strengthening growth ahead rising. Much will depend, however, on when the answers came in and an upside surprise (6.0+) is still possible.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 12th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th OCTOBER 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with investors pondering the U.S. rate outlook and the slump in Samsung Electronics Co. adding to pressure. The Nikkei closed down -0.93% at 16, 867) Oil prices are slightly higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 51 per barrel amid scepticism about broad output cut agreements. US and UK stock futures meanwhile are higher, the latter despite a jump in the Pound. The European calendar has final French inflation data for September as well as Eurozone production numbers for August, with the latter expected to show a strong gain following very strong national data.

FX Update: Cable made a 31-year closing low in London at 1.2226. Notably this was also the low of the day, which can be taken as a technically bearish indication. Cable is 1.2264 bid presently, having plummeted another 200 pips to lows of 1.2085 and remains about 1.2% up on the day. The pairing is down by 5.4% w/w, 8.2% m/m and off by nearly 17% on the year-to-date. Dollar strength has been a factor in the mix in recent days, aside from Brexit-related sterling under performance (which has seen the currency to fresh lows versus the euro, yen and other currencies). The rebound from under 1.2100 was sparked by news, reported initially by Sky, that PM May has backed down and will allow parliament to scrutinise the government’s Brexit plan before Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered. This is apparently a concession by May to win support of Conservative MPs for a vote on whether to allow parliament to vote directly on the Article 50 plan, which the government does not want (and is subject to a legal challenge that is starting this week). For markets this development is a sign that the government could be forced to dilute its “hard Brexit” stance, although this will remain to be seen. Elsewhere, the dollar traded mixed. EURUSD clocked a 10-week low of 1.1031 while USDJPY settled in the mid 103s in a fourth day of consolidation after logging a six-week peak at 104.16 last Thursday. AUDUSD lifted by over 0.5%, reversing most of yesterday’s decline.

BOJ Governor Kuroda: Speaking to parliamentexplained that the BOJwill ease policy again if required including lowering negative rates further and buying more Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) (currently set at 80 trillion yen a year). The amount of JGB purchases will vary from year to year.

BOC Governor Poloz: His comments were consistent with no change in rates alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation in next week’s announcement and MPR. The governor’s remarks, as reported by Bloomberg, were cautiously upbeat on growth prospects. He acknowledged disappointment over the underperformance in exports and slow pace of the rebound but reiterated that the economy’s path remains positive and further fiscal stimulus will provide a boost near term. The Governor said “The situation continues to be okay…” We agree, with recent data consistent with an economy that continues to find its footing in the wake of the oil price shock and Fort McMurray wildfire. Notably, employment grew in both August and September while the Outlook Survey revealed that weakness in the resource sector is likely bottoming out. Modest reductions in the bank’s GDP projections are expected next week, but the rebound scenario will remain intact. Hence, projections remain for no change in rates until the first half of 2018, when modest rate hikes are seen.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed moderate Kashkari sees no urgency in raising rates and said the Fed should let the economy keep creating jobs so long as it doesn’t spur inflation. He says his eyes are wide open for signs of asset bubbles. Kashkari is speaking on the Too-Big-To-Fail topic, but segued into policy, though this is in line with his previous arguments in favour of patience.

Main Macro Events Today 
 

• FOMC Minutes – The minutes will be an interesting read given the degree of market speculation of a rate hike back then, and now, and especially with the three dissenting votes against last month’s unchanged policy decision. However, there’s not likely to be any new information shared since that meeting included the Fed’s new projections and dot plot, along with Chair Yellen’s press conference. There’s also been considerable Fedspeak since the meeting, explaining the stance. The minutes should show confirmation the Fed remained sidelined due to the slowdown in the labour market and uncertainties over the fallout from Brexit.

• JOLTS Report – A favourite of Governor Yellen, data released at 14:00 GMT expectations are for a slight fall to 5.79million from 5.87million last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited October 12, 2016 by HFblogNews