Guest forexpros Posted September 1, 2010 Report Share Posted September 1, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 01, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Watch Price Reaction to News Releases to Determine a Currency Pair’s Sentiment/Direction Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 2, 2010, 07:00 ET In Part 3 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals how to use the power of economic news releases to indicate the market’s true sentiment. Most traders avoid the news because it’s volatile, or only believe it has a short term effect, but the way price reacts technically to surprises in news events can give you information beyond what’s on the chart alone and allow you to avoid deadly traps. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar Monday’s headline for the EURUSD was “Slowly rising, signaling weakness”, and the Euro listened, and kept on falling from the weekly open, losing more than 140 pips from yesterday’s Asian session high. And with this drop, the pair broke our support 1.2643 only to disappoint and drop less than 20 pips below it. But the surprise came yesterday just after the NY open, when the Euro bounced and jumped from its 5-day low at 1.2624, to 1.2741. This surprising jump could mean that the single currency has not given up yet, and that it will try to overcome a negative outlook. Short term resistance is at 1.2792, and breaking it will mean that it is able of achieving more games. The targets will be 1.2871 & 1.2959. The support is at 1.2684, and if broken, the drop will be resumed to the attractive 1.2550, and later to the all important 1.2432. Support: • 1.2684: Fibonacci 61.8% short term. • 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows. • 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332. Resistance: • 1.2792: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2920. • 1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. • 1.2595: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY Dollar/Yen traded below the 84 level for a short while, then jumped to around 84.60 and consolidated above 84. This is probably just a short break, and once it is over, we expect the Yen’s strength to continue, and we believe we will see levels below 83.58 on the short term. We have noticed an ideal (Dark Cloud Cover) candle pattern on the daily chart (please refer to the attached chart), and this is a well known bearish pattern which promises more excitement as we drop lower & lower, especially after the BoJ disappointing the markets yesterday, and the “Japs” saying that they are “watching the currency movement closely”! The market has had it with such statements, the “japs” now will have to take a seat and watch the spectacular Yen show against the Dollar & the Euro. Short term support is at 84.11, if broken, we will be on the way to our long awaited target 82.50, and may be later we will test the psychological level 80.00, given enough time. On the other hand, it is hard now to imagine the Dollar beating the 84.88 resistance, But if it does, it will be violent in the face of those who believe in the Yen, and will shoot to 86.25 & may be 86.81. Support: • 84.11: the rising trend line from last week’s low on the hourly chart. • 82.50: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. • 80.00: psychological level. Resistance: • 84.88: the falling trend line from Jun 4th top, a very important line. • 86.25: Jul 16th low. • 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low. --- GBP/USD The Pound broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.5405, and dropped exactly as expected to reach 1.5326, which was not enough to meet our suggested target which was pips below 1.53. With this break this pair has left the “neutral zone” which we said is between 1.5587 & 1.5441. Therefore, it is only logical now to expect the Pound to dive. But after more than 240 pips down from yesterday’s top, the price is subject to a short term correction, with a condition of staying below 1.5480. The Pound is notorious for breaking, then moving in the other direction, before moving in the right direction smoothly and strongly. Short term support is at 1.5382, which we are trading just above as this report is prepared. If broken, the Pound will continue to fall, and it will target 1.5293 & 1.5224. On the other hand, we could see a correction up to 1.5480, without changing this negative outlook. But if the Pound manages to break the resistance 1.5480, our negative outlook will suffer, and the price will shoot up to the very important 1.5596, and the most important 1.5757. Support: • 1.5382: short term 38.2% Fibonacci level. • 1.5293: Jul 22nd high. • 1.5224: Jul 6th high. Resistance: • 1.5480: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Monday’s top. • 1.5596: Aug 26th high and the slowly falling trend line from Aug 16th top. • 1.5757: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Aug 6th major top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 2, 2010 Report Share Posted September 2, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 02, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Watch Price Reaction to News Releases to Determine a Currency Pair’s Sentiment/Direction Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 2, 2010, 07:00 ET In Part 3 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals how to use the power of economic news releases to indicate the market’s true sentiment. Most traders avoid the news because it’s volatile, or only believe it has a short term effect, but the way price reacts technically to surprises in news events can give you information beyond what’s on the chart alone and allow you to avoid deadly traps. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar For the first time in 11 days the Euro reached 1.28, penetrating the resistance in yesterday’s report 1.2792, declaring that it refuses to give up. However, the rise stopped just before our target 1.2871, and the pair consolidated around 1.28 without getting very far from it, which keeps the hopes of more upside activity alive. Looking at the hourly chart, we see an obvious horizontal support at last week’s high 1.2777. The drop in the Asian session stopped only 3 pips above it, to give it more importance. If we hold above this level, the current bounce is expected to add more gains. But if broken, the Euro will gradually give up the latest gains, and will drop to 1.2676 first, and at a later time to 1.2550. On the other hand, the resistance now is at 1.2825, and if broken, then the odds of breaking 1.2871 will be enormous. In this case, we expect the Euro to continue running the show, and to target relatively high levels, such as the important Fibonacci levels at 1.2959 & 1.3047. We do hope that Tomorrow’s US jobs report will put an end to the boredom and frustration trading the Euro has brought in the last two weeks. Support: • 1.2777: last week’s top, Aug 27th high, and an obvious hourly support. • 1.2676: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart. • 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows. Resistance: • 1.2825: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.2595: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. --- USD/JPY One again, Dollar/Yen traded below the 84 level for a short while, then jumped to around 84.60 and consolidated above 84, just like it did less than 24 hours ago! This is probably just a short break, and once it is over, we expect the Yen’s strength to continue, and we believe we will see levels below 83.58 on the short term. We have noticed an ideal (Dark Cloud Cover) candle pattern on the daily chart (please refer to the attached chart), and this is a well known bearish pattern which promises more excitement as we drop lower & lower, especially after the BoJ disappointing the markets yesterday, and the “Japs” saying that they are “watching the currency movement closely”! The market has had it with such statements, the “japs” now will have to take a seat and watch the spectacular Yen show against the Dollar & the Euro. Short term support is at 84.06, if broken, we will be on the way to our long awaited target 82.25, and may be later we will test the psychological level 80.00, given enough time. On the other hand, it is hard now to imagine the Dollar beating the 84.81 resistance, but if it does, it will be violent in the face of those who believe in the Yen, and will shoot to 86.25 & may be 86.81. Support: • 84.06: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 82.25: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart. • 80.00: psychological level. Resistance: • 84.81: the falling trend line from Jun 4th top, a very important line. • 86.25: Jul 16th low. • 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low. --- GBP/USD The moment the Pound broke 1.5441 on Monday, this pair has left the “neutral zone” which we said is between 1.5587 & 1.5441. Therefore, it is only logical now to expect the Pound to dive. But after more than 240 pips down from yesterday’s top, the short term correction we are seeing now is (As we said yesterday) no surprise, with a condition of staying below 1.5480. The Pound is notorious for breaking, then moving in the other direction, before moving in the right direction smoothly and strongly. And now that we have tested 1.5480, we should wait and see what will the price do with it! Breaking this important level (in case it happens) can change the outlook dramatically! Short term support is at 1.5395, which was tested earlier this morning. If broken, the Pound will continue to fall, and it will target 1.5262 & 1.5151. On the other hand, the price has challenged 1.5480 yesterday, but it dropped more than 90 pips from yesterday’s high. If we maintain trading below it, that will not change a thing. But if we break it, our negative outlook will suffer. The resistance we put our attention at is 1.5441, which is the “guardian” of 1.5480! if broken, the price will shoot up to the very important 1.5596, and the most important 1.5700. Support: • 1.5392: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level. • 1.5262: Jul 5th high. • 1.5151: Jul 20th low Resistance: • 1.5441: the falling trend line from yesterday’s top on intraday charts. • 1.5596: Aug 26th high and the slowly falling trend line from Aug 16th top. • 1.5700: Aug 16th important top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 6, 2010 Report Share Posted September 6, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 06, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro benefited from the US jobs report to approach 1.29 on Friday, and penetrated it after the market opened again last night. It seems like the Euro is targeting the top of the rising hourly channel which is illustrated on the attached chart. This top is at 1.2920, which is also Aug 18th high. When we take look at the hourly chart, we can spot an interesting support at 1.2777. This support is formed by Aug 27th high, and on Thursday, the price stopped 3 pips below it during the Asian session and 2 pips above it during the European sessions, which adds to its importance. Moreover, the rising trend line from Aug 31st low is now at 1.2837, providing the most important short term support. So, we will be in a neutral zone between 1.2920 & 1.2837, waiting for a break! If we break the resistance 1.2920, nothing will stop the Euro from reaching 1.3000, then the most important short term resistance 1.3047. On the other hand, support is at 1.2837, and if broken, we will drop to test the important 1.2777, and if broken, a strong drop will target 1.2676. Support: • 1.2837: the rising trend line from Aug 31st low. • 1.2777: last week’s top, Aug 27th high, an obvious hourly support, and the rising trend line from Aug 31st low on the hourly chart. The single most important short term support without a shadow of a doubt. • 1.2676: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart. Resistance: • 1.2920: the top of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th high. • 1.3000: psychological level. • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the drop from the 4-month high of 1.3332. --- GBP/USD The Pound jumped after the market open and went back to test the important resistance area 1.5480/90, which was tested on the first day of this month, and dropped from there with more than 100 pips at that time. This area is formed between the short term Fibonacci 61.8% level at 1.5480, and Sep 1st high. Will the price break it or will it frustrate it again just like it did 5 days ago? We strongly believe that the reaction from this area is the single most important thing that will determine the direction for the next few hours. If we break it (And here we prefer a break of the top of the area at 1.5490, not the Fibo level at 1.5480), the price will jump to 1.5565, and may be later to 1.5669. On the other hand the support is at 1.5442, and breaking this level would mean we are getting far from the important 1.5480/90, and a new drop will start. The targets for such a drop are 1.5349, and 1.5262. everything depends on the reaction from the all important 1.5480/90. Support: • 1.5442: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.5349: Thursday’s low. • 1.5262: Jul 5th high. Resistance: • 1.5490: the top of the resistance area formed between Fibonacci 61.8% short term & Sep 1st high. • 1.5565: the falling trend line from Aug 16th high. • 1.5669: Aug 19th important top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 7, 2010 Report Share Posted September 7, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 07, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar We wondered in yesterday’s report, if the Dollar was able to survive after reaching critical levels at 1.2920 for the EURUSD, and 1.5490 for the GBPUSD. The answer to our wondering was “Yes we can”. Although the price did not reach far enough to break yesterday’s resistance or support, but it fell heavily during the Asian session. Yesterday’s rise was halted accurately at the resistance we specified 1.2920, and only 4 pips below it, confirming its massive importance. Then, we dropped to 1.2786, before bouncing once again above 1.28. With this drop, the Euro has broken 2 important trend lines on the hourly charts: the rising trend line from Aug 31st (which was broken at 1.2860), and then the falling trend line from Sep 1st top. This has shifted the short term technical outlook to the negative territory, but the medium term gloomy outlook is sleeping until we break 1.2777, and we wake her beauty up! That is why, today’s support will be 1.2777, and if broken, we expect the current fall to continue, targeting 1.2690 first, and then 1.2627. On the other hand, resistance is at 1.2864, and if broken, the Euro will rise after the Asian session breakdown, and will target 1.2943 & 1.3000. Support: • 1.2777: last week’s top, Aug 27th high, an obvious hourly support. The single most important short term support without a shadow of a doubt. • 1.2690: obvious & attractive horizontal support on the hourly chart. • 1.2627: Aug 31st low. Resistance: • 1.2864: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from yesterday’s high. • 1.2943: the top of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart. • 1.3000: psychological level. --- GBP/USD The Pound dropped from the very same area which stopped it on Sep 1st, the all important resistance 1.5480/90. It fell to break the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.5442, and successfully and accurately reaching our suggested target 1.5349, stopping only 5 pips below it. Today, we expect more of the same, and we expect a serious break of the support at 1.5349, resulting in a continuation of the drop from the massive 1.5490! if the price manages to do so, we will be expecting another episode of “the drop” series, a lot like yesterday’s. This drop will target 1.5262 at the very least, and at a later time 1.5151. On the other hand, the most important resistance is still at 1.5480/90, but there is a short term resistance “guarding” it, which is short term resistance 1.5433. if broken, the Pound will reverse direction, and refuse our negative outlook, and will be on the way to yet another (a third) test, of the all important 1.5480/90, and if we pass by it, 1.5565 will be the target. Support: • 1.5349: Thursday’s low. • 1.5262: Jul 5th high. • 1.5151: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on intraday charts. Resistance: • 1.5433: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from yesterday’s high. • 1.5490: the top of the resistance area formed between Fibonacci 61.8% short term & Sep 1st high. • 1.5565: the falling trend line from Aug 16th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 8, 2010 Report Share Posted September 8, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 08, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro fell heavily during yesterday’s Asian session, then it resumed the drop during the European session. After stopping just below the enormous resistance we talked about in Monday’s report 1.2920 (Monday’s high was 1.2916), we saw the Euro fall, breaking yesterday’s support 1.2777 and successfully reached the first suggested target at 1.2690. With this drop, the price has broken 3 critical levels at once: 1. the rising trend line from Aug 31st (which was broken at 1.2860), 2. the falling trend line from Sep 1st top and 3. the massive support at 1.2777. This has shifted the short & medium terms’ technical outlook to the negative territory! But on the other hand, after the big drop, chances of seeing a correction before resuming the journey south are massive. The ideal target area for a short term correction is from 1.2767 to 1.2824. Therefore, today’s best strategy may be selling if the price rebounds to this area. Short term resistance is at 1.2824, we do not expect it to be broken today. But if it is broken, we will jump to 1.2912 & 1.2972. Support is at 1.2698, and a break here would target 1.2627 and may be at a later time 1.2522. Support: • 1.2698: obvious & attractive horizontal support on intraday charts. • 1.2627: Aug 31st low. • 1.2522: Jul 13th low. Resistance: • 1.2824: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Monday’s high. • 1.2912: the retest level for the rising trend line from Aug 31st low on the hourly chart. • 1.2972: the top of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen dropped to 83.33, a new 15-year low! The latest drop came in the midst of the disappointment in the BoJ, which after a 2-day meeting, announced that it will not do anything at the moment to deal with the strong Yen. We have recently adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday’s jump. We still believe in USD\/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 85.10 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again yesterday, as the “Japs” said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing! The market has had it with these comments, and now the Japanese authorities should buy tickets to the “Yen Show”, and see what it will do to the Dollar & the Euro! Short term support is at 83.41, and if broken, we will be on the way to our long-awaited target at 82.25, then we will see the psychological level at 80.00. On the other hand, the above mentioned trend line is at 85.10, and Fibonacci 61.8% short term is at 84.49. If the latter is broken, we will target former. And if this one is also broken, the Dollar will be violent to us all, as it will shoot up to 86.25. Support: • 83.41: important intraday level. • 82.25: the falling trend line on the weekly chart, combining the monthly lows of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009. • 80.00: psychological level. Resistance: • 84.49: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 85.10: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart • 86.25: Jul 16th bottom. --- GBP/USD The Pound dropped on Monday, from the very same area which stopped it on Sep 1st, the all important resistance 1.5480/90, and this drop reached 1.5295 yesterday. Then, the price jumped for more than 100 pips so far. This bounce or short term uptrend found a supporting trend lien which is currently at 1.5374. We expect the Dollar to try and break this level, to continue its rebound from the gigantic resistance 1.5490. If it manages to do so, we will be in for another episode of the drop series, similar to what we have seen on Monday. This will target 1.5262 at the very least, and at a later time 1.5151. On the other hand, the most important resistance is 1.5441. We do not exaggerate when we say that this level is the single most important one in determining the short term direction. If broken, the Pound will refuse to give up to our negative outlook, and will break free, targeting the interesting areas above 1.55, most interesting of them in our eyes are 1.5507 & 1.5596. Support: • 1.5374: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.5262: Jul 5th high. • 1.5151: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on intraday charts. Resistance: • 1.5441: the top of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart. • 1.5507: Aug 19th low. • 1.5596: Aug 16th low. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 9, 2010 Report Share Posted September 9, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 09, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro’s rise stopped yesterday 7 pips before the level we recommended selling at. We saw this pair topping at 1.2761, before diving below 1.27 once again. Yesterday’s trading changed nothing in the technical outlook we talked about in the last 2 reports. After stopping just below the enormous resistance we talked about in Monday’s report 1.2920 (Monday’s high was 1.2916), we saw the Euro fall, breaking yesterday’s support 1.2777 and successfully reached the first suggested target at 1.2690. With this drop, the price has broken 3 critical levels at once: 1. the rising trend line from Aug 31st (which was broken at 1.2860), 2. the falling trend line from Sep 1st top and 3. the massive support at 1.2777. This has shifted the short & medium terms’ technical outlook to the negative territory! But on the other hand, after the big drop, chances of seeing a correction before resuming the journey south are massive. The ideal target area for a short term correction is from 1.2757 to 1.2817. Therefore, today’s best strategy may be selling if the price rebounds to this area. Short term resistance is at 1.2787, we do not expect it to be broken today. But if it is broken, we will jump to 1.2901 & 1.3047. Support is at 1.2675, and a break here would target 1.2608 and may be at a later time 1.2550. Support: • 1.2675: important intraday level. • 1.2608: Aug 25th low. • 1.2550: Jul 12th low. Resistance: • 1.2787: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from Monday’s high, and the retest level for the broken trend channel, the single most important resistance for the medium term. • 1.2901: Aug 19th top. • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen dropped to 83.33, a new 15-year low! The latest drop came in the midst of the disappointment in the BoJ, which after a 2-day meeting, announced that it will not do anything at the moment to deal with the strong Yen. We have recently adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday’s jump. We still believe in USD\/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 84.88 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again yesterday, as the “Japs” said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing! The market has had it with these comments, and now the Japanese authorities should buy tickets to the “Yen Show”, and see what it will do to the Dollar & the Euro! Short term support is at 83.59, and if broken, we will be on the way to our long-awaited target at 82.00, then we will see the psychological level at 80.00. On the other hand, the above mentioned trend line is at 84.88. If broken, the Dollar will be violent to us all, as it will shoot up to 86.25 & 86.95. Support: • 83.59: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level. • 82.00: the falling trend line on the weekly chart, combining the monthly lows o Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009. • 80.00: psychological level. Resistance: • 84.88: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart • 86.25: Jul 16th bottom. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD The Pound broke through the top of the falling hourly channel at 1.5441 yesterday. As it did so, it also broke our resistance and reached the first suggested target 1.5507 successfully, before retreating back towards 1.54 this morning. The break of the channel top will have its influence on the short term price activity, but in order to do so, the price should hold above the support 1.5386 during the current correction. If it does, we can say with confidence that the technical outlook is positive. On the other hand, a break here would surely mean that the Pound is not capable of using the channel break to harvest more gains. If 1.5386 is broken, a strong drop is to be expected, targeting 1.5262 at least, and may be later 1.5147. Resistance is at 1.5461, it should be broken soon to facilitate capitalization on the break of the channel before the weekend. In this case, the targets will be huge, as we expect them to be 1.5646 & 1.5728. Support: • 1.5386: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.5295. • 1.5262: Jul 5th high. • 1.5147: Jul 22nd low and the same area with Jul 20th low as well (which was 1.5151). Resistance: • 1.5461: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. 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Guest forexpros Posted September 13, 2010 Report Share Posted September 13, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 13, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro jumped after the market’s open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.28. Now the question is will the EUR succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.2920? In fact, we do not believe it will, and even if it did, this will provide a selling opportunity. At the time these words are written, the EUR is trying to break short term 61.8% Fibonacci level (please refer to the attached chart). We believe that surpassing this level will be easy, as our eyes are set on the last important level before 1.2920, which is 1.2853. Our strategy for today will be waiting for the Euro to reach this high, in order to sell with a stop/reverse above 1.2920. Therefore, the resistance levels are 1.2853, and 1.2920 which if broken will leave our negative outlook void, and we will target 1.3047. But, as long as we are below 1.2920, this pair is a “sell”. On the other hand, the support is at 1.2764, then there is 1.2724 which would make an ideal target for a sell at 1.2853. Then there is 1.2658 & 1.2608. Support: • 1.2764: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.2658: Wednesday’s low. • 1.2608: Aug 25th low. Resistance: • 1.2853: Sep 1st high, and the last important resistance before 1.2920. • 1.2920: Aug 19th top. • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. --- USD/JPY No change for our negative technical outlook for this pair, as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 4th top. Last week, we adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday’s jump. We still believe in USD\/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 84.72 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again last week, as the “Japs” said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing! The market has had it with these comments, and now the Japanese authorities should buy tickets to the “Yen Show”, and see what it will do to the Dollar & the Euro! Short term support is at 83.79, and if broken, we will be on the way to our long-awaited target at 82.00, then we will see the psychological level at 80.00. On the other hand, the above mentioned trend line is at 84.83. If broken, the Dollar will be violent to us all, as it will shoot up to 86.25 & 86.95. Support: • 83.79: the rising trend line from Wednesday’s low on intraday charts. • 82.00: the falling trend line on the weekly chart, combining the monthly lows of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009. • 80.00: psychological level. Resistance: • 84.72: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart • 86.25: Jul 16th bottom. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD The Pound jumped after the market’s open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.54. Now the question is will is succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.5490? In fact, we could see a test of this massive resistance area, but we believe that such a test would provide a selling opportunity, with a stop above 1.5532. The reasons behind this belief are two: we have seen how this massive resistance level has rejected the price 3 times recently, and because the falling trend line from Aug 16th top is just above it providing another important resistance. It is hard to picture this pair breaking both levels today, and that is why we recommend this strategy: sell around 1.5490, stop clearly above 1.5532, and the target at 1.5344. On the other hand, breaking 1.5532 decisively is not probable today, but if it happens, the Pound will target 1.5646. Support: • 1.5395: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.5344: Sep 6th “& 10th low. • 1.5295: Sep 7th low. Resistance: • 1.5490: the massive resistance level containing the highs of Sep 1st & 6th. • 1.5532: Wednesday’s high which is just above the falling trend line from Aug 16th top. • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 14, 2010 Report Share Posted September 14, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 14, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro jumped after the market’s open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.28 in the morning, and hitting 1.2890 in New York. Now the question is will the EUR succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.2920? In fact, we do not believe it will, and even if it did, this will provide a selling opportunity. As we approach 1.2920, sort of (yesterday’s high was 1.2890), we believe that topping and creating a medium term top to fall from for days is very possible. But there is a very critical condition to this gloomy scenario, which is to top below or close to 1.2920, and not to break this level decisively. Short term support is at 1.2853, if broken, the real journey away from 1.2920 will start. In this case we expect a strong drop to the important 1.2737, and to 1.2658, and even lower than that given enough time. On the other side, 1.2920 is definitely the resistance of the day, and only a break here will change the negative outlook. If this happens, we will target 1.3000 & the important 1.3047. Support: • 1.2853: Sep 1st high. • 1.2737: short term Fibonacci 61.8%. • 1.2658: Wednesday’s low. Resistance: • 1.2920: Aug 19th top. • 1.3000: psychological level. • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. --- USD/JPY We broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 83.79, and the price dived to 83.07 so far. This was completely expected, and we do hope that we are on the way to our long awaited target of 82.00. Last week, we adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday’s jump. We still believe in USD\/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 84.48 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again last week, as the “Japs” said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing! The market has had it with these comments, and now the Japanese authorities should buy tickets to the “Yen Show”, and see what it will do to the Dollar & the Euro! Short term support is at 83.22, and if broken, we will be on the way to our long-awaited target at 82.00, then we will see the psychological level at 80.00. On the other hand, the above mentioned trend line is at 84.48. If broken, the Dollar will be violent to us all, and actually this break could be a sign of an intervention, and it will shoot up to 86.25 & 86.95. Support: • 83.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term. • 82.00: the falling trend line on the weekly chart, combining the monthly lows of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009. • 80.00: psychological level. Resistance: • 84.48: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart • 86.25: Jul 16th bottom. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD The Pound jumped after the market’s open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.54. The question we presented yesterday was will it succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.5490? And we have recommended selling close to this level. The price behavior was completely in line with our analysis. The price stopped at 1.5486 (4 pips before our resistance) and dived to 1.5347 (3 pips before the target). That was the 4th time this month we test the massive 1.5490! and we still believe that if there was a 5th time, it is a good selling opportunity, with a stop above 1.5532. The reasons behind this belief are two: we have seen how this massive resistance level has rejected the price 4 times recently, and because the falling trend line from Aug 16th top is just above it providing another important resistance. It is hard to picture this pair breaking both levels today. On the other hand, breaking 1.5490 decisively is not probable today, but if it happens, the Pound will target 1.5575 at the very least, and then 1.5646. support is at 1.5360, and a break here would be a signal of a big fall, targeting 1.5262 & 1.5147. Support: • 1.5360: important intraday level. • 1.5249: Jul 23rd low. • 1.5147: Jul 22nd low. Resistance: • 1.5490: the massive resistance level containing the highs of Sep 1st & 6th. • 1.5575: Aug 30th high. • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 15, 2010 Report Share Posted September 15, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 15, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro jumped strongly yesterday, even though it initially broke the support specified in yesterday’s report. We broke the important level specified in yesterday’s report 1.2920, and successfully reached the first suggested target of 1.3000. We have seen the EURUSD jumping more than 100 pips above the massive 1.2920, this shows that even when they are broken, important levels provide good trading opportunities just as when they hold and reverse the trend. During the Asian session the Euro dropped to create a correction of 38.2% of yesterday’s jump. It stopped with astonishing accuracy at the short term Fibonacci 38.2% level, bottoming at 1.2954, just 1 pip above the Fibo level. This will be our support for today, and if broken, we expect the drop which has gained 80 pips so far to go on. Targets will be 1.2886 & 1.2764. On the other hand, yesterday’s rise almost made it to the all important medium term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3047. this is the most important resistance level for now, if broken we will be on the way to levels above 1.31, the most important of which are 1.3118 & 1.3194. Support: • 1.2954: Asian session low & short term Fibonacci 38.2% level. • 1.2886: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on the hourly chart. • 1.2764: Sep 9th high. Resistance: • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. The most important resistance level at the moment. • 1.3118: Aug 5th low. • 1.3194: Aug 2nd high. --- USD/JPY All the major Yen pairs jumped together during the Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87. Support: • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart • 86.95: Jul 1st low. • 87.56: Jul 20th high. --- GBP/USD The Pound jumped yesterday and broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5490, and reached the first suggested target for this break at 1.5575 successfully. After it topped 10 pips above our target then dropped hard for more than 100 pips. This is a sign of exhaustion, and that breaking 1.5490, which we believe is very important, only had a short term effect on the price behavior. This morning we approached a critical short term support level which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the latest rise from 1.5347 on Monday to 1.5585 yesterday. This level which is at 1.5438 is the most important support for now. The drop stopped just 10 pips above it a few hours ago, and if is broken, then the Pound has already topped medium term yesterday at 1.5585, and it will continue its drop targeting the very attractive 1.5326, and at a later time 1.5249. On the other hand, the Pound should break the resistance 1.5533 to keep the chances of another jump alive. If it succeeds, we expect it to target medium term important levels: 1.5646 & 1.5728. Support: • 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level. • 1.5326: Aug 31st low. • 1.5249: Jul 23rd low. Resistance: • 1.5533: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level. • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. 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Guest forexpros Posted September 16, 2010 Report Share Posted September 16, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 16, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Get Direction Right by Looking for Clues in Forex Price Action Expert: Kris Matthews When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro did not move enough to penetrate the support or resistance specified in yesterday’s report. But, when we investigate the rising move from 1.2586, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.3332, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 61.8% level. Yesterday’s high was 1.3035, the highest level since August 11th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.3047 (please refer to the attached chart). This resistance will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south. That is why it will be our resistance of the day. If broken, we will target 1.3145 & 1.3237. On the other hand, it would sound bizarre to say that the Euro is weak, and we will not say that. But we do believe that as long as it is below 1.3047, it will be vulnerable. The first sign of a failure at 1.3047 will be going back to trade below 1.2973. If this happens, expect a big drop, targeting 1.2855 first, then the important and strong 1.2764. Support: • 1.2973: the rising trend line from • 1.2885: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.2643. • 1.2764: Sep 9th high. Resistance: • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. The most important resistance level at the moment. • 1.3145: Aug 3th low. • 1.3194: Aug 4th high. --- USD/JPY The Dollar/Yen retreated more than 35 pips today, or 0.41%, this leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? Yesterday’s support & resistance levels were not touched, and this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance yesterday, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together during yesterday’s Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87. Support: • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart • 86.95: Jul 1st low. • 87.56: Jul 20th high. --- GBP/USD The Pound jumped yesterday, to break the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5533, and then reach the first suggested target 1.5464 successfully & accurately as the price topped only 4 pips above it. Whet is even more important than meeting our 100 pips target is what we see when we investigate the rising move from 1.5295. When we do, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.5996, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 50% level. Yesterday’s high was 1.5650, the highest level since August 19th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.5646 (please refer to the attached chart). This resistance is pretty important, but we have to admit that the most important level is definitely 1.5728. This level will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south. Or resistance of the day is 1.5646. If broken, we will target 1.5728 & 1.5854. On the other hand, it would sound bizarre to say that the Pound is weak, and we will not say that. But we do believe that as long as it is below 1.5728, it will be vulnerable. The first sign of a failure at 1.5646 will be going back to trade below 1.5585. If this happens, expect a big drop, targeting 1.5463 first, then the important and strong 1.5370. Support: • 1.5585: the rising trend line from Tuesday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.5463: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 1.5370: Aug 24th low. Resistance: • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5854: Aug 4th low. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 20, 2010 Euro Dollar Although the Euro penetrated 1.3047 on Thursday, and jumped strongly, reaching the first suggested target 1.3145, it stopped there, and dropped from Friday high which was 1.3157, sharply. The importance of breaking 1.3047 comes from the fact that this level is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.3332 which is a 4-month high, to 1.2586 which is a 2-month low. We have abandoned our negative outlook after the penetration of 1.3047, but it seems that the Euro has failed at the first serious test after that. The price has stopped at the retest level of the rising trend line from the June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, the technical outlook, even after penetrating 1.3047, is not strong enough to consider the Euro a “buy”, after failing in the retest. Short term resistance is at 1.3118, and only if broken will the Euro have another chance to rise. If it does break this level targets will be 1.3194 & 1.3306. On the other hand, the support is at 1.3060, and if broken, we will head towards the Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from 1.2643 to Friday’s high. The first two of these levels are 1.2961 & 1.2900. Support: • 1.3056: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.2961: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.2643. • 1.2900: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.2643. Resistance: • 1.3118: Aug 5th low. • 1.3194: Aug 2th high. • 1.3306: Aug 9th high. --- USD/JPY Japan warned speculators once again on Friday, that it will be violent against those who buy the Yen. The price has moved sideways for quite a while now. This leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance yesterday, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together during yesterday’s Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87. Support: • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart • 86.95: Jul 1st low. • 87.56: Jul 20th high. --- GBP/USD The Pound has touched our resistance of 1.5278 on Friday, as the high was 1.5727, and it traded below there the whole time. We have clarified in Thursday’s & Friday’s reports the huge importance of this level. When we investigate the rising move from 1.5295. When we do, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.5996, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 61.8% level. The Pound reached 1.5727, the highest level since August 11th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.5728 (please refer to the attached chart). The most important level is definitely 1.5728. This level will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south. Our resistance of the day is definitely 1.5728. If broken, we will target 1.5854 & 1.5905. On the other hand, it would sound bizarre to say that the Pound is weak, and we will not say that. But we do believe that as long as it is below 1.5728, it will be vulnerable. The first sign of a failure at 1.5728 will be going back to trade below 1.5660. If this happens, expect a big drop, targeting 1.5549 &1.5438. Support: • 1.5660: the rising trend line from Tuesday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.5549: short term Fibonacci 38.2% resistance. • 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance. Resistance: • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5854: Aug 4th low. • 1.5905: Aug 2nd & 10th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 21, 2010 Report Share Posted September 21, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 21, 2010 Euro Dollar Stunningly, the Euro stopped exactly & down to the pip at our suggested resistance in yesterday’s report 1.3118, to confirm the importance of this level, which will live to see itself as our resistance for one more day. The Euro had penetrated 1.3047 on Thursday, and jumped strongly, reaching the first suggested target for this break 1.3145, it stopped there, and dropped from Friday high which was 1.3157, sharply. We have abandoned our negative outlook after the penetration of 1.3047, but it seems that the Euro has failed at the first serious test after that. The price has stopped at the retest level of the rising trend line from the June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart), and then left us with a (Shooting Star) candle pattern. Therefore, the technical outlook, even after penetrating 1.3047, is not strong enough to consider the Euro a “buy”, after failing in the retest. Short term resistance is at 1.3118, and only if broken will the Euro have another chance to rise. If it does break this level targets will be 1.3194 & 1.3306. On the other hand, the support is at 1.3056, and if broken, we will head towards the Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from 1.2643 to Friday’s high. The first two of these levels are 1.2961 & 1.2900. Support: • 1.3056: the rising trend line combining Wednesday’s, Thursday’s & yesterday’s lows, on the hourly chart. • 1.2961: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.2643. • 1.2900: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.2643. Resistance: • 1.3118: Yesterday’s high, Aug 5th low. • 1.3194: Aug 2th high. • 1.3306: Aug 9th high. --- USD/JPY No change whatsoever in this pair that is not moving! Japan warned speculators once again on Friday, that it will step in if needed. The price has moved sideways for a few days now. This leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance in the past few days, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together on Wednesday, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87. Support: • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart • 86.95: Jul 1st low. • 87.56: Jul 20th high. --- GBP/USD The Pound broke the support specified in yesterday’s report, 1.5660 and dropped hard to successfully reach our suggested target of 1.5549. with this drop, the Pound has sailed away from the all important 1.5728, and therefore, the technical outlook is now negative, without a doubt, and based on several factors which are: 1. The extremely accurate top at 1.5728, 2. Breaking the rising trend line from last week’s high & 3. Yesterday’s drop to a 6-day low. Short term support is at 1.5558, if broken, we expect a strong drop which will look a lot like yesterday’s fall. The targets for such a drop will be the important 1.5438, then 1.5344. Resistance is at 1.5655, and only with a break here that we will change our negative outlook. If we get this break, things will change, and we will be on the way yet to another test of the important 1.5728 level, and if broken we will shoot for 1.5854. But, as long as we are below 1.5655, things are negative for this weak pair. Support: • 1.5558: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support. • 1.5344: Sep 10th low, a well known support area. Resistance: • 1.5655: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Friday’s top. • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5854: Aug 4th low. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. 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Guest forexpros Posted September 22, 2010 Report Share Posted September 22, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 22, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market Expert: Stephanie Radkay When: Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 11:00 GMT Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s reports 1.3118, after two days of trying, and successfully reached both targets 1.3194 & 1.3306 with accuracy as well (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 5 pips above our 2nd target at 1.3311). The Euro broke the above mentioned resistance early yesterday, but it was not until the FED issued its statement that it literally “exploded” in the face of the Dollar! Reaching 1.33 once again has pushed us to revisit the long term analysis, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapse and drop to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: resistance is at 1.3332, if broken then this rally will go on, and will target 1.3414 then a very important Fibonacci level at 1.3509. Support is at 1.3284, and if broken a correction is due, with ideal targets at 1.3203 & 1.3135. Support: • 1.3284: important intraday level which was formed after the FED. • 1.2203: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.3027. • 1.3135: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3027. Resistance: • 1.3332: Aug 6th top. • 1.3414: Apr 27th high. • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875. --- USD/JPY Finally, some movement in this “dead” pair! After the Fed last night, we broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.25 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.49. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.25 or 85.49 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.25, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.49 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95. Support: • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term. • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.49: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart • 86.25: Jul 20th high. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD In spite of the FED, in spite of the Euro soaring to 1.33, and the Swiss Franc breaking above parity with the Dollar, the Pound did not break, or even test 1.5728. This charming resistance will still be our most important level for now, there is nothing more important. The Pound jumped strongly (As everybody else did) after the FED, breaking through 1.56 and topping very close to 1.57 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 1.5697). But , even with all this action, the technical outlook will not change before breaking 1.5728. Currently, and as we said in previous reports, we do not say that the Pound is weak, but it is surely vulnerable as long as it is trading below 1.5728, it could collapse any minute! Only a break of 1.5728 will change this sad status, and if we get this all important break, we will soar to 1.5854 first, then to 1.5906. On the other hand the support is at 1.5662, and a break here will initiate a correction for yesterday’s spike, targeting the important 1.5576 first, then 1.5448. Support: • 1.5662: the rising trend line from today’s low on intraday charts. • 1.5576: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support. • 1.5448: Sep 15th low, a well known support area. Resistance: • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5854: Aug 4th low. • 1.5906: Aug 10th important top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 23, 2010 Report Share Posted September 23, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 23, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market Expert: Stephanie Radkay When: Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 11:00 GMT Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s reports 1.3332, and reached our suggested target of 1.3414 with complete success. This pair had broken an important resistance at 1.3118 on Wednesday, but it was not until the FED issued its statement that it literally “exploded” in the face of the Dollar! Reaching 1.33 once again has pushed us to revisit the long term analysis, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapse and drop to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: resistance is at 1.3438, if broken then this rally will go on, and will target a very important Fibonacci level at 1.3509, then 1.3625. Support is at 1.3381, and if broken a correction is due, with ideal targets at 1.3281 & 1.3184. Support: • 1.3381: Asian session low. • 1.3281: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.3027. • 1.3184: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3027, and the rising trend line from Sep 10th low on the hourly chart. The single most important support at the moment without a doubt. Resistance: • 1.3438: Yesterday’s top. • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875. • 1.3625: Mar 19th high. --- USD/JPY This pair has praised our analysis yesterday as it “stole” the low from our report. Bottoming at 84.25, the same exact level we specified as support, down to the pip! Later, it consolidated above this level. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.28. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.03 or 85.28 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.03, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.28 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95. Support: • 84.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 83.33: Sep 8th low. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.28: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart, and short term Fibonacci 61.8% level. • 86.25: Jul 20th high. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD There is absolutely no change to the technical outlook provided yesterday. In spite of the FED, in spite of the Euro soaring to 1.33, and the Swiss Franc breaking above parity with the Dollar, the Pound did not break, or even test 1.5728. This charming resistance will still be our most important level for now, there is nothing more important. The Pound jumped strongly (As everybody else did) after the FED, breaking through 1.56 and topping very close to 1.57 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 1.5697). But , even with all this action, the technical outlook will not change before breaking 1.5728. Currently, and as we said in previous reports, we do not say that the Pound is weak, but it is surely vulnerable as long as it is trading below 1.5728, it could collapse any minute! Only a break of 1.5728 will change this sad status, and if we get this all important break, we will soar to 1.5854 first, then to 1.5906. On the other hand the support is at 1.5662, and a break here will initiate a correction for yesterday’s spike, targeting the important 1.5576 first, then 1.5448. Support: • 1.5662: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. • 1.5576: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support. • 1.5448: Sep 15th low, a well known support area. Resistance: • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top. • 1.5854: Aug 4th low. • 1.5906: Aug 10th important top. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 27, 2010 Report Share Posted September 27, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 27, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market Expert: Stephanie Radkay When: Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 11:00 GMT Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro topped at a 5-month high on Friday, hitting a high of 1.3497, just pips before the important Fibonacci level for the medium term. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapsing and dropping to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: support is at the Asian session low of 1.3445, and resistance is at the medium term Fibonacci level of 1.3509.If we take the resistance, then the trend goes on, and we will target 1.3589 & 1.3690. But a break of the support will give way to a downward correction targeting 1.3366 & 1.3285. Support: • 1.3445: Asian session low. • 1.3366: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3285. • 1.3285: Friday’s low. Resistance: • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875. • 1.3589: Apr 1st & 2nd high. • 1.3690: Apr 12th high. --- USD/JPY Dollar/Yen retreated from 85.37 which was hit after rumors of an intervention, but as we said in our last report, this swift adventure could not be classified as a break of the what was them important level 85.28. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.21. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.03 or 85.21 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.03, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.28 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95. Support: • 84.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 83.33: Sep 8th low. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.21: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart. • 86.25: Jul 20th high. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD After the market’s open, the Pound had hit the highest level since Aug 11th at 1.5843, and that came as a natural result of breaking the important 1.5728 in the second attempt on Friday. The technical indicators show a state of “overbnought” which leaves the possibility of a sharp correction there, but the short term trend is a rising one after breaking the 1.5728 level. This is why we strongly recommend not to pick sides today before breaking the specified support or resistance, and we believe that the short term direction will not show itself before a break! Short term support is provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the micro-term at 1.5765. If this level is broken , we will drop to more important Fibonacci level at 1.5673 &1.5632. On the other hand, the top of the rising channel from Sep 21st low on the hourly chart could tackle this rise, but if it gives way then the party will continue! The top of the channel is at 1.5871, and if broken we will jump to 1.5965 & 1.6000. Support: • 1.5765: Micro term Fibonacci 38.2% level • 1.5673: short term Fibonacci 50% support. • 1.5632: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support. Resistance: • 1.5871: the top of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart. • 1.5965: Aug 3rd high. • 1.6000: psychological level. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 28, 2010 Report Share Posted September 28, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 28, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market Expert: Stephanie Radkay When: Mon, Thu, Oct 7, 2010, 11:00 ET Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro jumped to a new 5-month high yesterday at 1.3503, only 6 pips below the important 50% Fibonacci level for the medium term. This accurate reversal at a Fibonacci level leaves the Euro vulnerable, it could drop hard, any minute from anywhere, and it will be like this unless it breaks 1.3509. Therefore, the Euro has 2 choices, not 3: either it breaks 1.3509, or it collapses. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (were wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapsing and dropping to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Back to short term analysis: resistance is at the important medium term Fibonacci level 1.3509, while the support is at 1.3448. If the resistance is broken, this rally will continue, probably with obvious strength, as it will target 1.3589 & 1.3690. On the other hand, breaking 1.3448 will give the Dollar an opportunity to create a considerable bounce as it leans on the important Fibonacci at 1.3509. If this level is broken, we will ideally target. Support: • 1.3448: Fibonacci 50% for the micro-term. • 1.3368: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3285. • 1.3285: Friday’s low. Resistance: • 1.3509: Fibonacci 50% for the whole massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875. • 1.3589: Apr 1st & 2nd high. • 1.3690: Apr 12th high. --- USD/JPY Dead boring, this pair just does not want to move, and to add to it, there are authorities that are “watching closely”. It is not a very promising situation, but we believe everything will change if 84.03 is broken. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.10. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.03 or 85.10 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.03, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.10 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95. Support: • 84.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. • 83.33: Sep 8th low. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. Resistance: • 85.10: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart. • 86.25: Jul 20th high. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD The resistance specified in yesterday’s report as 1.5871 proved its importance as yesterday’s rise stopped only 6 pips below it (yesterday’s high was 1.5865). Then the price started dropping to areas below 1.58. The technical indicators show a state of “overbnought” which leaves the possibility of a sharp correction there, but the short term trend is a rising one after breaking the 1.5728 level. This is why we strongly recommend not to pick sides today before breaking the specified support or resistance, and we believe that the short term direction will not show itself before a break! Short term support is provided by the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, which is at 1.5784. If this level is broken , we will drop to more important Fibonacci level at 1.5684 &1.5641. On the other hand, the most important resistance for the short term is 1.5834, and probably we will not break it, but if it gives way then the party will continue! In this case, targets will be 1.5922 & 1.6000. Support: • 1.5784: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart. • 1.5684: short term Fibonacci 50% support. • 1.5641: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support. Resistance: • 1.5834: the falling trend line from yesterday’s top on intraday charts. • 1.5922: Aug 3rd high. • 1.6000: psychological level. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest forexpros Posted September 29, 2010 Report Share Posted September 29, 2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis September 29, 2010 Free webinar on ForexPros - Top 12 Golden Trading Tips: Start Your Day on the Right Side of the Market Expert: Stephanie Radkay When: Mon, Thu, Oct 7, 2010, 11:00 ET Trading can be as risky as flying a plane. Pilots use a checklist to get off the ground and so should traders. Here is your 12 tip checklist to give you the confidence and the best opportunity for success. In this webinar Stephanie Radkay, CME Floor Broker, Screen Trader and Educator, will address personal vs. market risk like you've never seen it before, her Rotating Directional Trading System (RDS) and 10 other golden nuggets that have been used successfully since 1993. Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar Yesterday, we said “the Euro has 2 choices, not 3: either it breaks 1.3509, or it collapses”, and indeed the Euro did break 1.3509 and reached our first suggested target 1.3589 successfully & accurately (the 2-day high for yesterday & today until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3594). Earlier yesterday, the Euro broke the support at 1.3448 and almost made it to our first suggested target 1.3368, but it stopped 12 pips before achieving this unique happening of reached the sell strategy target & the buy strategy target on the same day. Breaking 1.3509 is a solid confirmation of the righteousness of our medium term outlook. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (where wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapsing and dropping to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Keep in mind that breaking 1.3509 confirms this analysis, and it supports the idea that we are heading to the target area suggested in the medium term analysis. Let’s talk short term now: resistance is at 1.3589, and if broken, we will target 1.3690 and then 1.3787. Short term support is at 1.3554, and if broken we expect a drop to 1.3461, and if broken to 1.3380. Support: • 1.3554: important intraday level. • 1.3461: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3380. • 1.3380: Yesterday’s low. Resistance: • 1.3589: Apr 1st & 2nd high. • 1.3690: Apr 12th high. • 1.3787: Feb 17th high. --- USD/JPY Finally, we broke 84.03 which was under our spotlight for several days. The drop which followed reached 83.59 so far. This break opened the door wide for a test, and most probably a break, of the 15-year low 82.87. We believe that getting there is only a matter of time. As you probably remember, the importance of 84.03 comes from the fact that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the rise from the 15-year low of 82.87 to the post-intervention top 85.91, therefore, it is the “guardian” of the 15-year bottom. This makes breaking 84.03 the first step in breaking 82.87, and reaching fresh 15-year lows. But the question is will this drop be fast, and we see these levels relatively soon, let’s say before the weekend? Or will it be a slow drop that will consume many days to get there? Short term support is at 85.30, and if broken, the drop will go on, and target areas below 83, we love 82.87 & 82.40 most of them. Short term resistance is a bit far, and it is at 84.71. If broken, we will shoot up 85.91 & 86.95, very unlikely at the moment, unless we have an intervention. Support: • 83.50: Sep 7th low. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. • 82.40: the trend line combining the monthly bottoms of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009. Resistance: • 84.71: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart. • 85.91: Sep 16th high. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD Violent fluctuations seen yesterday, jumping to 1.5894 then dropping hard in a matter of 3 hours to 1.5718 is most probably a play to hit the largest number of stops on both sides, before initiating a large move. Technically speaking, breaking 1.5871 yesterday is definitely a positive sign, indicating strength. It was the second positive sign after breaking 1.5728 last week. Today, there is a notably important resistance at 1.5880, this level could give the green light to moving higher, or decline this attempt. We believe that breaking this level or failing at it is the single most important factor determining the short term direction. If we break 1.5880, the Pound will not settle for less than 1.60 seen for the first time in months! And may be later 1.6056. On the other hand, failure here will give the Dollar a chance to breathe, and go back down to test 1.5838. If broken, the Pound will suffer a downward correction, targeting yesterday’s low first, then the very important Fibonacci level 1.5651. Support: • 1.5838: important intraday level. • 1.5718: Yesterday’s low. • 1.5651: short term Fibonacci 61.8% support. Resistance: • 1.5880: important intraday level. • 1.6000: psychological level. • 1.6056: Jan 7th high. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. 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Click here to join free --- Euro Dollar The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.3589,only to stop on the middle if the road between this level and our suggested target of 1.3690, topping at a new 5-month high of 1.3644. Then, this pair suffered an 80+ pips setback, which could put it under considerable pressure, if it breaks the important short term support levels below 1.36. The first of these support levels is 1.3543, which if broken will force us to put all our attention at the all important 1.3481. This is the level to watch for today, because a break here will be a declaration of a strong falling correction, that is supposed to correct the whole massive move up from 1.2643, which may stop now after achieving 1000 pips of gains. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.3624, and if broken, the Euro will continue to fly, and will immediately target 1.3717, then at a later time may be will witness a test of the unforgettable top 1.3816. Now let’s take a look at the medium term analysis. Breaking 1.3509 on Tuesday was a solid confirmation of the righteousness of our medium term outlook. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26. So, currently, we are in wave C, which will ideally target the equality level (where wave A = wave C) which is at 1.4043, or the Fibonacci 61.8% level for the massive drop from 1.5143 to 1.1875 which is at 1.3895, or the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, which is currently at 1.3794 and will rise with time. This leaves the area between 1.3895 & 1.4043 as the proffered target area for this wave. We do believe we are heading there on in a matter of weeks. We expect to reach the target area by December, which is a month famous for introducing medium & long term tops for EURUSD. From there we could see the Euro collapsing and dropping to areas below 1.18, but it is too early to talk about this issue now, and we will leave the next stage discussion to a more appropriate time. Keep in mind that breaking 1.3509 confirms this analysis, and it supports the idea that we are heading to the target area suggested in the medium term analysis. Support: • 1.3571: important intraday level, protecting the short term Fibonacci 38.2% level which is at 1.3543. • 1.3481: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3380, and the rising trend line from Sep 10th low on the hourly chart. The single most important support level for the current time. • 1.3332: the massive top of Aug 6th. Resistance: • 1.3624: the falling trend line from yesterday’s top on the intraday charts. • 1.3711: Feb 8th high. • 1.3816: the unforgettable top of Mar 17th. --- USD/JPY There is hardly any change to the technical outlook, it is completely negative after breaking 84.03 which was under our spotlight for several days. It was broken on Tuesday, and we have seen the Yen dragging the Dollar to 83.18 so far. This break opened the door wide for a test, and most probably a break, of the 15-year low 82.87. We believe that getting there is only a matter of time. As you probably remember, the importance of 84.03 comes from the fact that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the rise from the 15-year low of 82.87 to the post-intervention top 85.91, therefore, it is the “guardian” of the 15-year bottom. This makes breaking 84.03 the first step in breaking 82.87, and reaching fresh 15-year lows. But the question is will this drop be fast, and we see these levels relatively soon, let’s say before the weekend? Or will it be a slow drop that will consume many days to get there? Short term support is at 85.18, and if broken, the drop will go on, and target areas below 83, we love 82.87 & 81.80 most of them. Short term resistance is a bit far, and it is at 84.48. If broken, we will shoot up to 85.91 & 86.95, very unlikely at the moment, unless we have an intervention. Support: • 83.18: Asian session low. • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years. • 81.80: the trend line combining the monthly bottoms of Dec 2008, Jan & Nov 2009, after adjusting it slightly. Resistance: • 84.48: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart. • 85.91: Sep 16th high. • 86.95: Jul 1st low. --- GBP/USD The resistance we offered you yesterday at 1.5880 proved that it deserved the attention we poured on. It managed to stop the rising move yesterday morning, as it failed to break it, and stopped only 7 pips before it (yesterday’s high was 1.5873). The reaction from this important resistance saw the Pound dropping back again below 1.58, which could be a signal that an overdue correction is about to begin! Technically speaking, breaking 1.5871 on Tuesday is definitely a positive sign, indicating strength. It was the second positive sign after breaking 1.5728 last week. Today, we will keep our important resistance at 1.5880, this level could give the green light to moving higher, or decline this attempt. We still believe that breaking this level or failing at it is the single most important factor determining the short term direction. If we break 1.5880, the Pound will not settle for less than 1.60 seen for the first time in months! And may be later 1.6075. On the other hand, failure here will give the Dollar a chance to breathe, and go back down to test 1.5815. If broken, the Pound will suffer a downward correction, targeting Tuesday’s low first 1.5718, then the very important support at 1.5575. Support: • 1.5815: important intraday level. • 1.5718: Yesterday’s low. • 1.5575: Aug 30th high. Resistance: • 1.5880: important intraday level. • 1.6000: psychological level. • 1.6075: Jan 22th low. --- Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. --- Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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