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Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex


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EURUSD remains in the eye of the storm: tariff fears dominate the market

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0990 on Monday as market chaos continues. Discover more in our analysis for 7 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair is moving more actively than usual
  • Investors remain concerned about global trade tensions, although the White House maintains its stance
  • EURUSD forecast for 7 April 2025: 1.1146

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.0990 on Monday.

Volatility remains above average. Investors are assessing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policy on inflation and economic growth. The global trade war is only escalating.

Despite the market panic, the White House stands firm on its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs. On Sunday, Trump compared the tariffs to medicine you have to take to fix something. Previously, China agreed on a 34% tariff on all US-made goods, which may prompt similar measures from other countries.

The unfolding tariff saga has intensified fears over US inflation and economic growth, complicating the Fed’s policy path. Markets are now pricing in a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts for 2025.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited by RBFX Support
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Posted (edited)

Strong data from Japan keeps USDJPY from rising further

The USDJPY pair is slightly declining, currently trading at 147.70. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • Donald Trump announces readiness to begin trade talks with Japan
  • Japan posts a record current account surplus in February 2025
  • USDJPY forecast for 8 April 2025: 146.25

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is retreating after Monday’s sharp rally, where the pair tested the key resistance level at 148.00. The Japanese yen temporarily weakened against the US dollar amid growing uncertainty around global trade — typically a driver of safe-haven demand.

On the political front, Donald Trump confirmed his readiness to start trade negotiations with Japan following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The upcoming talks will address a wide range of issues, including tariffs, currency policy, and state subsidies.

Robust economic data keeps the yen from further weakening. In February 2025, Japan recorded a record current account surplus of 4.0607 trillion yen, driven by strong export growth amid high external demand and a decline in imports due to lower energy prices and subdued domestic consumption.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited by RBFX Support
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Gold (XAUUSD) rises, supported by the Fed stance and market demand

Gold (XAUUSD) has climbed to 3,028 USD, with safe-haven demand continuing to drive the metal higher. Discover more in our analysis for 9 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to recover following recent volatility
  • Despite April's dip, Gold (XAUUSD) quotes have gained 13% year-to-date
  • XAUUSD forecast for 9 April 2025: 3,046

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 3,028 USD on Wednesday amid growing safe-haven demand. The escalating trade war fuels fears of global recession and rising inflation.

The US government confirmed that additional tariffs on imports from multiple countries will take effect today, with no exemptions at this stage.

China faces the steepest tariff hike of 104% after it refused to comply with US demands to lift its retaliatory duties on US goods by the deadline. US President Donald Trump also announced that a significant tariff on pharmaceutical imports is expected soon.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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Brent remains highly volatile: new stress ahead?

Brent crude prices are falling again, sliding towards 64.90 USD after a 4% rally in the previous session. Find more details in our analysis for 10 April 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

  • Brent gained 4% in the previous session but has now stalled
  • Trump’s temporary tariff compromise supported prices, but the outlook remains uncertain, potentially curbing growth
  • Brent forecast for 10 April 2025: 64.80 and 64.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are hovering around 64.90 USD. On Wednesday, prices rose by over 4% as investor sentiment improved following the US decision to pause tariff hikes for most countries.

US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day period during which import tariffs would be lowered to 10% in an effort to support ongoing trade talks. The move helped reduce fears of a full-blown trade war, which could trigger a global recession and suppress oil demand.

However, markets remain cautious as China was excluded from this deal, and its tariff rate was raised to 125%.

The latest data from the US Department of Energy showed a larger-than-expected drop in gasoline and distillate inventories, helping offset a moderate rise in crude oil stockpiles.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited by RBFX Support
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EURUSD hits a three-year high: the US dollar is not in demand

The EURUSD rate is testing the 1.1285 level and setting a new peak at 1.1383, with the market concerned about the impact of the US trade war. Find out more in our analysis for 11 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair hits a three-year high and shows no signs of slowing
  • The market remains focused on tariff-related risks and sees reasons for a decline in US GDP
  • US core inflation for March gives reason for the Fed to cut interest rates
  • EURUSD forecast for 11 April 2025: 1.1384

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate touched the 1.1384 level but is now hovering around 1.1285.

The dominant market driver working against the US dollar is concern over the state of the US economy. Investors fear that aggressive tariffs will slow down US growth despite the current 90-day tariff pause.

US inflation data for March came in mixed. The core CPI rose just 2.8% year-on-year, marking the slowest increase since March 2021. This gives markets further reason to anticipate a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Edited by RBFX Support
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USDJPY falls sharply – yen takes centre stage as safe-haven asset

The USDJPY pair plummeted to 142.41, with chances to reach new lows being high. Find more details in our analysis for 14 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The USDJPY pair is testing six-month lows and may go lower
  • The market is focused on the upcoming US-Japan tariff negotiations
  • The Japanese yen is performing strongly as a safe-haven asset
  • USDJPY forecast for 14 April 2025: 142.06

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 142.41 on Monday, approaching its lowest level in six months. Escalating global uncertainty driven by trade conflicts has increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Markets are closely watching the upcoming trade talks between Washington and Tokyo. Japan’s chief negotiator, Akazawa Ryosei, is set to meet this week with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Japan currently benefits from a reduced 10% tariff rate and aims to secure more favourable terms in ongoing discussions.

The USDJPY forecast is negative.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 

Edited by RBFX Support
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Gold (XAUUSD) holds bullish momentum — US risks keep safe havens in demand

Gold is moving steadily toward 3,220 USD as global demand for safe-haven assets remains high. Full details in our analysis for 15 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Gold (XAUUSD) continues its upward trend, pausing only for brief consolidations
  • Global investors remain focused on safe-haven assets
  • XAUUSD forecast for 15 April 2025: 3,246

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading near 3,220 USD on Tuesday.

The primary driver for gold remains the heightened level of market uncertainty linked to US trade policy. While new tariffs are currently on pause and trade talks are ongoing, the Trump administration has shifted focus to auto parts — considering removing them from the list of high-tariff items.

Still, that remains speculative. Meanwhile, attention has shifted to key import sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, which may soon face increased tariffs. These sectors are substantial, and the prospect of new duties has fuelled demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Another solid support for gold comes from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut — markets are currently pricing in around 86 basis points of easing in 2025. Lower interest rates typically benefit gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 

Edited by RBFX Support
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