Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.28.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the USD-CAD currency pair is likely to experience increased volatility due to important economic announcements from both the US and Canada. From the US side, traders will focus closely on Federal Reserve members Thomas Barkin, Michael Barr, and Raphael Bostic's speeches, which may provide insights into future monetary policy direction, influencing the USD significantly. Moreover, the release of key economic data such as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Disposable Personal Income, Consumer Spending, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will play a critical role in gauging inflation and economic health. From Canada, GDP data from Statistics Canada will also be crucial, potentially impacting the CAD substantially as it reflects overall economic activity.


Price Action:
The USD/CAD price action in the H4 timeframe indicates the pair is currently trapped within a classic triangle pattern. Recently, the price has approached the upper descending resistance line of this triangle and reacted to it, creating bearish pressure at the resistance. This price behavior could potentially push USDCAD down towards the lower support boundary of the triangle, near the level of 1.42791. The last candle’s red color serves as confirmation of the bearish reaction, suggesting cautious trading as price could break out from either side of the triangle.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots for the last six candles are positioned below the current candle formation, indicating the presence of short-term bullish sentiment. However, given the recent bearish reaction from the resistance line, traders should remain cautious and await further confirmation.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 51.45, signaling a neutral momentum as it is situated close to the mid-level (50). This indicates a market without immediate overbought or oversold conditions, thus allowing potential room for price movements in either direction based on upcoming economic data.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD shows diminishing negative histogram bars approaching the zero line, suggesting a decreasing bearish momentum. Traders should watch closely for a possible bullish crossover, which could indicate a shift towards a bullish outlook, provided the triangle resistance line is convincingly breached.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic indicator currently reads around 75.85, showing proximity to overbought conditions. Given that the %K line is nearing the upper bound, it implies that there might be limited upside potential in the short term, thus supporting the case for a possible bearish pullback towards support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate technical support is located at the triangle’s bottom boundary around 1.42791, a significant zone where the price has previously reacted.
Resistance: The nearest resistance remains the descending trend line of the triangle pattern, currently near the 1.43060 mark, an important technical barrier for the bulls.


Conclusion and Consideration:
USD CAD H4 analysis currently suggests a cautious bearish outlook, primarily driven by the reaction at the resistance line within the triangle formation. Technical indicators display mixed signals; however, the price action strongly favors a potential short-term downside movement towards 1.42791. Traders should remain vigilant ahead of significant US and Canadian economic data and speeches today, which could lead to breakout moves from the triangle. Proper risk management and monitoring of the mentioned technical and fundamental aspects are advised.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.28.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURGBP Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.31.2025


Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, EURGBP traders should closely monitor economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. The Eurozone is releasing the Import Price Index, Real Retail Sales, and CPI data from Germany and Italy, significant indicators affecting inflation and consumer spending. Stronger-than-forecast figures typically enhance the Euro's strength, reflecting economic resilience. Concurrently, GBP traders should watch closely the Bank of England's data on Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Consumer Credit, which influence economic growth and consumer confidence. Higher-than-expected results generally support GBP strength.


Price Action:
The EUR-GBP H4 timeframe analysis demonstrates a prevailing bearish trend, although recent candles indicate bullish corrective momentum moving upward towards the Ichimoku Cloud. After four consecutive bullish candles, the latest candle has turned bearish, reflecting a potential bearish reaction around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders should observe whether price action confirms a bearish reversal at this critical resistance or resumes upward momentum towards cloud penetration.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Currently, the EUR GBP price is approaching the cloud resistance, indicating a potential struggle between bullish correction and overall bearish sentiment. Price rejection from the cloud boundary would reinforce bearish continuation signals.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is narrowing toward the zero line, indicating reduced bearish momentum and potential for bullish pressure. However, as it remains negative, bearish sentiment is still technically intact.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI stands at 57.20, indicating neutral-to-bullish momentum. Given the absence of overbought or oversold conditions, the indicator suggests price still has space for potential upward movement, but caution is recommended at current resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is seen at the 0.8330 price level, aligning with recent lows and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Resistance: The current resistance stands at approximately 0.8370, corresponding with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and Ichimoku Cloud bottom.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP H4 technical and fundamental analysis indicates a critical decision point, as the pair tests key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and Ichimoku Cloud. The short-term bullish correction could lose momentum if resistance holds firm. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data releases, which could substantially influence market volatility and directional bias. A clear breakout or rejection at current levels will provide better entry signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.31.2025


 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.01.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
Today, AUD/USD traders should closely monitor key economic events affecting both currencies. USD volatility is expected as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence market expectations about future interest rate decisions. Additionally, the release of significant economic data, including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and JOLTS Job Openings, will provide crucial insights into the health of the US economy, potentially impacting USD strength. For AUD, important events include retail sales data and commodity price changes, crucial for gauging Australia's economic health and the strength of the Australian dollar.

Price Action:
The AUD-USD H4 chart currently indicates a bearish market environment. The price recently found strong horizontal support, and a clear pin bar formation emerged at this support zone. Following the pin bar, a bullish green candle appeared, suggesting a potential move upwards toward the resistance level above for retesting. Currently, the price is near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, supporting the potential for an upward price correction toward resistance levels.

Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicator on the AUD-USD H4 chart suggests the possibility of a corrective move, as the price touched the lower band. Typically, price action tends to revert towards the middle band after such scenarios. Additionally, the bands have widened significantly, implying high volatility, and may contract soon, potentially coinciding with price stabilization or consolidation.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the price, highlighting the continuation of bearish sentiment. However, a narrowing gap between price action and these dots could soon signal a reversal if bullish momentum strengthens.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently, the RSI indicator shows a reading of around 35, approaching oversold conditions. This reading signals weakening bearish momentum and suggests potential bullish corrective action in the near term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows decreasing bearish momentum, indicating that sellers are losing control. A bullish crossover signal could appear soon, supporting upward corrective price action.
Williams %R: Williams %R has risen from extreme oversold territory (-70), suggesting buyers are regaining strength. A continued move upward from this level could further validate bullish sentiment.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate horizontal support for AUD/USD is clearly established at around 0.62370, evidenced by recent price action and pin bar formation.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is identified around the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at approximately 0.62670. A breakout above this level could target higher resistance areas near the 0.62820 level.

Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the AUD VS. USD H4 analysis indicates bearish sentiment currently prevails; however, technical indicators strongly support potential bullish corrective action. Traders should closely monitor today's key US and Australian economic releases and Fed speeches for volatility catalysts. Risk management remains critical due to anticipated market sensitivity.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
04.01.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.02.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD pair today may exhibit heightened volatility, with several key economic events scheduled for both the Eurozone and the United States. For the euro, early figures such as the French Government Budget Balance and Spanish Unemployment Change might influence sentiment, while the German 10-year bond auction could reflect market confidence in the Eurozone’s financial stability. On the U.S. front, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Factory Orders are critical indicators of economic momentum, and any surprise in these numbers could sway the dollar’s strength. Additional volatility could stem from speeches by President Trump and FOMC Member Kugler, as traders look for hints on future monetary policy direction. This confluence of fundamental events makes the EURUSD daily forecast highly reactive to news throughout the trading day.

Price Action:
On the EURUSD H4 chart, the price continues to trend within a well-defined descending channel. The pair recently tested the upper boundary of this bearish channel and failed to break above, respecting it as a static resistance zone. Notably, the ascending support trendline from the latest bullish wave has been broken, suggesting a shift in short-term momentum toward bearish territory. The price is now consolidating around 1.07800, and a decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.07340 is probable if bearish pressure persists. This aligns with current EUR/USD H4 chart patterns, highlighting a possible continuation of the downtrend unless significant news alters sentiment.

Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram shows slight bullish momentum fading, while the MACD and signal lines are converging below the zero line. This could signal a possible bearish crossover soon, strengthening the case for further downside. The weakening histogram bars point to diminishing buying interest, a crucial
RSI (14): The RSI currently stands at 46.03, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish condition. It is below the 50 mark, suggesting that bears are gaining traction without yet entering oversold territory. The EURUSD RSI indicator reflects weakening momentum but room for further downside before a reversal is considered.
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud on the EURUSD H4 chart has started forming a bullish wave, with the price moving inside the cloud. The baseline (Kijun-sen) is currently at 44.3, signaling early bullish momentum, though a clear breakout is still needed for confirmation.

 

Support and Resistance:
Support: The 1.07285 level stands out as a critical support, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and serving as a potential pivot point for bullish rebounds if selling pressure subsides.
Resistance: The 1.08530 resistance marks the top of the descending channel and a recent swing high, making it a key barrier for bulls to overcome to signal a potential trend reversal.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD technical forecast for 02.04.2025 suggests a continuation of bearish bias within the descending channel on the H4 timeframe. The break below the recent bullish trendline and rejection from static resistance zones increase the likelihood of a bearish wave toward the 1.07340 Fibonacci support. With multiple high-impact economic events lined up today for both EUR and USD, including ADP jobs data, Factory Orders, and central bank speakers, market sentiment may shift rapidly. Traders should monitor key support at 1.07285 and resistance at 1.08530 closely, adjusting their strategies accordingly based on real-time developments.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EURUSD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
04.02.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.04.2025


Time Zone: GMT+3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD pair, which tracks the price of Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD), remains highly sensitive to both macroeconomic indicators and regulatory developments. Today, attention is focused on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings—key data points that impact USD strength and overall market sentiment. Additionally, several speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, may trigger volatility if they provide clues about future monetary tightening or rate hikes. Strong job data and hawkish Fed tone could pressure Bitcoin, while dovish sentiment or weak employment numbers may support BTC. The market is bracing for sharp movements on the BTC/USD H4 chart, as traders react to this critical news.


Price Action:
The BTCUSD H4 chart shows that price recently pulled back after a local top near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating resistance. A bearish wave followed, pushing the price below the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. However, the last two candles show signs of bullish correction, with buyers attempting to regain control. Currently, BTC is moving upward from near the 23.6% Fib zone, with potential to retest the 38.2% level, which now acts as strong resistance. If BTC breaks above it with volume support, the next key resistance lies around the 61.8% Fib level. On the downside, failure to hold above 23.6% could expose the pair to deeper drops toward the March lows.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA): The chart uses a short-term MA 9 (blue) and a longer MA 17 (orange). The short MA has recently crossed below the long MA, indicating a bearish crossover. Both lines are currently close together, signaling a potential trend shift or indecision. Price action is trying to climb above both MAs, which may hint at a short-term bullish recovery if sustained.
Volume: The volume indicator shows declining selling pressure and increasing interest in recent bullish candles. This suggests that buyers may be gradually stepping in after the recent dip, but confirmation is needed with a strong breakout.
Money Flow Index (MFI): Currently at 52.56, the MFI is in a neutral zone, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The slight upward curve suggests that capital is starting to flow back into BTC, supporting the recent bullish correction in price action.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support is located around the 23.6% Fibonacci level, near 81,781, which held during the recent dip and is critical for maintaining bullish momentum.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, near 83,955, which must be cleared for further upside toward the 50% and 61.8% retracement zones.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The BTC USD H4 technical and fundamental analysis suggests the market is in a short-term recovery phase, with key resistance ahead. A bullish break above the 38.2% Fibonacci level could open the door for a move toward 86,000–88,000, while failure to hold support at 23.6% may lead to further decline. Traders should watch today’s USD news releases and Fed speeches closely, as they may heavily influence risk sentiment and USD volatility, ultimately impacting BTC’s direction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.04.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USD/JPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.07.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


B]Fundamental Analysis:[/B]
The USD-JPY currency pair is impacted today by critical economic releases from both the United States and Japan. From the U.S. side, the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler titled "Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve" could trigger volatility, particularly if her comments imply future monetary policy tightening. Additionally, U.S. consumer credit data will provide insights into consumer confidence and financial stability, influencing the strength of the USD. On the Japanese front, the release of Labor Cash Earnings and the Cabinet Office’s composite index will offer clarity on Japan’s economic health, potentially influencing the JPY through market expectations of consumer spending and overall economic conditions.


Price Action:
The USDJPY H4 timeframe has clearly broken the previous key support level, initiating a significant bearish trend. Price action has twice pulled back to retest the broken support line, confirming its role as a new resistance before continuing sharply downward. Despite recent bullish candles, the market gap at the opening signals a strong selling pressure and continued bearish sentiment. If bearish momentum persists, traders should look to Fibonacci extension levels, notably the 161.8% extension, as potential targets for the ongoing downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last two dots appear below the current price, indicating a potential short-term bullish correction after the strong bearish momentum. Traders should monitor closely for a reversal of the indicator dots back above the price as confirmation of renewed selling pressure.
Bollinger Bands: Price recently pierced the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions, followed by a corrective bounce back towards the midline. However, the overall widening of the band suggests ongoing volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend once price approaches resistance areas.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, signaling a potential short-term bullish correction. Nevertheless, the MACD line remains deeply below the zero line, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. Traders should remain alert to renewed bearish momentum.]RSI (Relative Strength Index):[/B] RSI currently stands at 36.27, recovering slightly from oversold territory. While indicating potential for further upside correction, RSI still emphasizes a prevailing bearish trend, cautioning traders to remain vigilant for resumed downward movement.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator currently at -82.11 shows the market is still near oversold levels despite the recent minor upward correction. This highlights the possibility of limited upward corrections before a renewed downward push.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate significant support is at the recent low around 144.930. Breaking below this could lead to testing the Fibonacci 161.8% extension.
Resistance: Strong resistance is at the previous support-turned-resistance line at approximately 146.290, aligned with recent price action highs and Fibonacci retracement levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
USD vs. JPY analysis on the H4 chart indicates robust bearish momentum supported by technical indicators despite short-term bullish corrections. Upcoming economic events for both currencies could introduce substantial volatility, affecting the pair’s direction significantly. Traders should be cautious of short-term bullish retracements and closely monitor resistance and support levels for potential breakout opportunities.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.07.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZD/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.08.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD currency pair is influenced today by two critical economic indicators. From New Zealand, the NZIER Survey of Business Opinion, a leading quarterly indicator of economic sentiment, will offer insights into the nation's business health and could strongly impact the NZD if the data significantly diverges from expectations. For the USD, traders will closely monitor the NFIB Small Business Index and comments by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly regarding future monetary policy signals. Additionally, the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report may indirectly affect USD sentiment via shifts in energy prices.


Price Action:
The NZD-USD H4 chart demonstrates a distinct bearish trend, as the pair recently experienced a strong downward movement followed by a mild correction upwards. The price is currently retesting a significant confluence zone, aligning precisely at the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and a horizontal support line, creating a stronger support region. If the correction concludes, price action indicates a potential continuation of the bearish momentum, targeting initially the Fibonacci level at 161.8%.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR points remain positioned above the current candlesticks, clearly confirming ongoing bearish sentiment. This indicator will remain bearish as long as price continues trading below the SAR dots.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 35.20, the RSI indicator for NZDUSD H4 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating bearish momentum and room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram indicates bearish momentum, although bars are beginning to shorten slightly, suggesting reduced bearish pressure in the short term. Traders should monitor for a potential bullish crossover, signaling an upcoming shift in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic currently stands at 33.28, maintaining a bearish crossover, thus supporting ongoing bearish momentum. This indicator suggests that the pair may still have further downward movement potential before reaching oversold levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate, strong support at 0.5535-0.5570 region (confluence of 100% Fibonacci level and horizontal support). Further downside target support at Fibonacci 161.8%, around 0.5420.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located at the 0.5630 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), with higher resistance at the 50% Fibonacci level near 0.5680.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD USD H4 technical analysis indicates continued bearish potential following completion of the recent correction. The robust confluence at the current support zone (100% Fibonacci and horizontal support) serves as a critical pivot; a decisive break downward could lead the price to further bearish targets at Fibonacci 161.8%. Fundamental events today will notably influence volatility and direction, particularly the NZIER Survey and US economic data releases. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes and closely observe indicator signals for momentum shifts.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.08.2025
 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBP/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.09.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s GBPUSD H4 forecast is influenced by a series of high-impact economic events for both the British Pound and the US Dollar. For the GBP, traders are awaiting the FPC Meeting Minutes and the FPC Statement, which could shed light on the UK’s financial stability outlook and potential policy adjustments by the Bank of England. Any signs of concern or hawkish sentiment could drive significant movement in GBPUSD. On the USD side, a packed economic calendar includes the Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, and multiple FOMC-related events, most notably the FOMC Meeting Minutes later today. These will provide key insights into future interest rate trajectories and the Fed’s inflation outlook. The mixed expectations for inventory data and bond auction results may stir volatility, setting the stage for potential breakout movements in GBPUSD.

 

Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, but the recent candlesticks show early signs of a bullish reversal. After testing the lower boundary of the channel, price action has started to form higher lows, indicating an attempt by buyers to regain control. A break above the upper boundary of this descending channel would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially opening the path toward the next key resistance levels. Today’s price action shows growing bullish momentum as price begins to lift away from the recent lows.

 

Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): Currently at 43.78, the RSI is climbing upward from oversold territory and signaling early bullish momentum. This suggests increasing buyer interest without entering overbought levels, supporting a potential continuation of the upward move.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram is contracting, and the MACD line is on the verge of crossing above the signal line, indicating a potential bullish crossover. This momentum shift suggests that the bears may be losing control, and a price increase may be imminent.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic has already turned bullish and currently shows values around 75.08 and 69.87, confirming a strong bullish bias. However, it is approaching overbought levels, so a short-term pullback could occur before a potential breakout.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the price line, which is a classic bullish indicator. This reinforces the current upward move and signals the end of the recent bearish wave.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Support levels for GBPUSD on the H4 chart are seen at 1.2675, aligning with the recent swing low and the lower boundary of the descending channel, and at 1.2570, a key psychological level and former demand zone offering additional downside protection.
Resistance: Resistance levels for GBPUSD on the H4 chart are located at 1.2865, marking the upper boundary of the descending channel where a breakout could signal strong bullish continuation, and at 1.3000, a key psychological level and previous high.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP USD H4 technical analysis indicates continued bearish potential following completion of the recent correction. The robust confluence at the current support zone (100% Fibonacci and horizontal support) serves as a critical pivot; a decisive break downward could lead the price to further bearish targets at Fibonacci 161.8%. Fundamental events today will notably influence volatility and direction, particularly the NZIER Survey and US economic data releases. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes and closely observe indicator signals for momentum shifts.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
04.09.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLD (XAU/USD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.10.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices are heavily influenced by economic data releases and central bank speeches, especially from the US. Today, traders are closely monitoring critical data from the US, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy, CPI overall, initial jobless claims, and several Federal Reserve members' speeches. A higher-than-expected CPI reading or hawkish comments from Fed officials could strengthen the USD and exert downward pressure on Gold, whereas weaker economic data and dovish comments might boost Gold as a safe-haven asset.


Price Action:
Currently, GOLD H4 analysis shows price breaking the previous support trend line, indicating a bearish shift. The recent bullish movement has retraced to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the critical 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A red bearish pin bar confirms selling pressure, suggesting a potential move downward toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and possibly lower.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Gold price touched the upper band and is now showing signs of retracement. The narrowing of bands indicates decreasing volatility, suggesting an upcoming significant price move, likely bearish in the short term.
Parabolic SAR: The dots are currently beneath the price candles, indicating recent bullish momentum. However, the proximity of price action suggests a possible imminent reversal to a bearish stance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 57.21, above the neutral midpoint but not yet at overbought levels, suggesting that there is still room for upward movement, but caution is warranted as momentum may weaken.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD remains below the zero line with decreasing bearish histograms. This indicates diminishing bearish momentum and hints at a potential short-term consolidation or reversal.
%R (Williams Percent Range): Currently at -16.78, signaling that price is near overbought territory and may soon correct downward, aligning with bearish expectations.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support at 3052.06 (38.2% Fibonacci), with deeper support seen at 3004.98 (50% Fibonacci).
Resistance: Key resistance at 3095.14 (23.6% Fibonacci), and further strong resistance at the psychological 3122.68 level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Technical indicators and recent price action analysis on GOLD H4 indicate a bearish pullback scenario in the short term. With price reacting strongly to the Fibonacci and Bollinger Band resistance, the possibility of further downside remains significant. Traders should remain vigilant for today's US economic data and Federal Reserve speakers, as these events could significantly influence volatility and the directional bias of Gold.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU /USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.10.2025