HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd September 2024.

Gold Analysis: Will Gold Break Free from Its Current Price Range?

• Gold trades 16.00% higher in 2024 as economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut between 75 and 100-basis points.
• The price of Gold is at a clear trend line and rebounds at the opening of the European Trading Session.
• Economists advise that for Gold to continue to increase to $2,600 and above, the market would require the Federal Reserve to cut 1.00%.

Gold (XAUUSD) – Will Gold Rise To $2,600?

Gold has risen 16.00% so far in 2024, largely driven by the geopolitical tensions and fear of lower consumer demand, but primarily due to expectations of lower interest rates. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to adjust the Federal Fund Rate by 0.75%. However, volatility will increase if the Fed opts to adjust at a faster or slower rate.

According to economists, in order for Gold to increase up to $2,600-$2,700, the Federal Reserve will need to increase the size of the rate cuts. According to the CME Group, there is a 45% chance, the Fed will cut 1.00% by 2025. If this possibility increases throughout the week, the price of Gold is likely to decrease as the Dollar declines. In order for the Federal Reserve to become more dovish, the regulator would look for weaker employment data and lower inflation.

Throughout the day, the price of Gold will depend on the price movement of the Dollar as well as the ISM PMI release at 14:00 GMT. However, another key release will be tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings. Analysts expect the job vacancies are likely to fall from 8.18 million to 8.09 million, one of the lowest in the past 2-years. If both the PMI data and job vacancies read lower, Gold will potentially increase in value. This is due to markets expecting a higher rate cut and weakening demand. Therefore, Gold will gain higher demand as an alternative to the Dollar and its safe haven status.

Technical Analysis – Gold


XAU/USD 10-Minute Chart on September 3rd

On the 4-hour chart, investors can clearly see the price is forming a range between the $2,529 and $2,492 level. The asset has largely found support and resistance at these levels as the market believes the asset is trading at its intrinsic value. However, the upcoming employment and inflation data can potentially change the market pricing. As the price continues to attempt to break through the resistance level at $2,529, the resistance level is losing its psychological edge over buyers. This makes it easier to break through.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. If the price rises above these levels, buy signals become more attractive. On the 10-Minute chart the asset has formed a bullish crossover and a higher high indicating bullish price movement. However, the price is overbought on the RSI. If the PMI data reads lower than expectations, the data will move hand in hand with the crossover signal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 4th September 2024.

Stocks Suffer Sharpest Drop Since August 5th, What’s Next?

• The stock market witnesses its worst session since August 5th. The NASDAQ drops more than 3.00% as 80% of its stocks decline.
• The VIX rises more than 5% indicating a low risk appetite as investors fear lower consumer demand and the unwinding of certain hedge positions.
• The price of the Japanese Yen increases in value for a second consecutive day.
• ISM PMI data improves but investors turn their attention to JOLTS Job Openings and NFP.

NASDAQ (USA100) – 80% of Stocks Decline But Will Investors Buy The Dip?

The NASDAQ is trading at its lowest price since August 13th after witnessing its worst trading day since August 5th. Throughout all 3 trading sessions the price of the index fell 3.40% and is now trading firmly below trend lines and neutral levels on Oscillators. The question now is whether the price is oversold and if investors are unwilling to trade at such high prices.



The decline was not solely related to the NASDAQ, but the whole US stock market as well as global stocks. The NIKKEI225 fell a further 1.50% today and the DAX is due to open 0.60% lower. Simultaneously the VIX is trading higher for a third consecutive day. These are known to be indications of lower sentiment towards stocks.

The decline came about due to the lower risk appetite, the unwinding of hedge positions which involved the Japanese Yen and fear of lower consumer demand. The index was also influenced by the higher PMI data from the ISM which indicated higher economic sentiment. As a result, a 50-basis point rate cut becomes less likely applying further pressure on the stock market. However, this will also depend on this week’s employment data and next week’s inflation rate.

All of the 12 most influential stocks fell in value and of the top 50 influential only 7 ended the day at a higher price. The question now is whether investors will now look to purchase the lower price. This will largely depend on today’s JOLTs Job Openings which analysts expect to read slightly above 8 million. Ideally investors will want to see higher job openings in order to give them confidence the consumer demand will not fall. According to economists, even with a slightly higher figure, the Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates.

Since the opening of the European Cash Open, the VIX has slightly fallen and European stocks are attempting a rebound. This is also something traders will monitor because if the momentum continues it may indicate a different price movement, such as a correction. Nonetheless, this will still largely depend on today’s release.

USD/JPY – Technical Analysis

The Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing currency while the US Dollar is the worst performing currency. The USDJPY is also trading below the trend-line, 100-Period SMA and below the 50.00 level on the RSI. The exchange rate has also fallen below 144.904 which is a key level on the Fibonacci levels.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that in August, the US Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 46.8 to 47.2 points, but still signals a slowdown in the industry. This slowdown meets the Federal Reserve’s conditions for easing monetary policy. Many experts now expect the Fed to lower interest rates three times, by a total of 100 basis points, by the end of the year. If the day’s JOLTS Job Openings read lower than 8 million, the US Dollar can witness higher downward momentum.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th September 2024.

US Jobs Vacancies Fall to 3-Year Low Pressuring The US Dollar!
 

 

• US Job Vacancies drop to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index declines.
• The best performing currency of the week is the Japanese Yen. Investors are turning to the only Central Bank which is not going to cut rates in 2024.
• The possibility of a 50-basis point rate cut increases, but economists stick to their 0.25% predictions for now.
• Oil prices fall close to lowest levels of 2024. Shareholders expect lower oil prices to prompt a lower inflation rate over the next 2 months.

USDJPY – JOLTS Job Data Points To Potential Larger Rate Cuts!

The price of the US Dollar came under pressure from the latest US job vacancies figures which fell below expectations. US Job Vacancies dropped to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index as a result fell 0.42% and continues to be the worst performing currency of the day this morning. The Japanese Yen is currently increasing 0.43% higher and is the day’s best performing currency. This ensures no conflict between the two currencies so far, but investors will need to ensure this trend continues while they trade.

The July JOLTS job openings data was released today, revealing a decrease from 8.18 million to 7.67 million, signaling continued weakening in the labor market and raising the chances of a significant rate cut. Additionally, the Fed’s Beige Book economic review will be published later in the day, providing insight into the current economic conditions across different regions of the US.

According to experts, the possibility of the Bank of Japan again increasing interest rates is growing but the timing is not yet certain. However, even without an interest rate hike, the Japanese Yen is likely to witness support as global banks cut rates. This includes the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank. During this morning’s Asian session, the Japanese Yen has risen in value against all currencies. Though, investors will monitor that this does not change as the European trading session starts.

USDJPY – Technical Analysis Update

In terms of technical analysis, the exchange rate on the daily timeframe is witnessing divergence and the volatility over 3 days is as much as we saw over the past week and a half. Therefore, the possibility of a retracement remains. However, on smaller time frames, momentum indicators continue to point towards the Japanese Yen gaining.
 

Upcoming Events

The price action throughout the remainder of the week will depend largely on the US Dollar. Today’s ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment Change and tomorrow’s official employment data will significantly influence the US Dollar and the USDJPY. Thereafter the market will turn their attention towards comments from members of the FOMC and the US inflation data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited September 5 by HFM

[HFM]

Date: 9th September 2024.

Market Update – How Aggressively Might the Fed Cut Interest Rates?


The August jobs data did not provide the clarity on the rate outlook that had been hoped and left the markets to their own devices. Concurrently, comments from Fed Governor Waller left the door open for an aggressive -50 bps cut after he said he favored front-loading policy action, but stressed only if appropriate.

Asia & European Sessions:
 

• European & US equity markets open in the green, following a recent selloff due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Wall Street plunged on Friday, as the NASDAQ collapsed -2.55%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -1.73% and 1.01%, respectively.
• Asian markets followed the global downturn, with stocks in Taiwan, Australia, and Japan experiencing declines. Nikkei dropped for a 5th consecutive day.
• Asia’s benchmark index fell to a 3-week low. Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to the 5-year low seen in February due to weak earnings and economic recovery. The CSI 300 Index has fallen over 13% since its peak in May, reflecting ineffective policy efforts to revive the economy. Market pessimism in China is fueled by deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and a prolonged property slump.
• Economic experts suggest that unless there is a significant policy shift, bearish sentiment may persist.
• Japan: Q2 GDP was revised down to a 0.7% pace, bouncing from the -0.6% contraction in Q1. It ties Q2 2023 for the fastest pace of growth since the 1.3% rate in Q1 2023. The deflator was revised up to a 3.2% y/y rate from 3.0% y/y.
  • BOJ: The data leave the door open for another BOJ hike down the road, though we suspect policymakers will be sidelined at the upcoming meeting on September 20 to further assess conditions.
• China CPI edged up to a 0.6% y/y rate in August. It is a seventh month in positive territory after four straight months of deflation (from October through January). Nevertheless, price weakness continues to reflect the slack in demand and the very sluggish growth pace in the economy. And even more serious, PPI plunged to -1.8% y/y in August from -0.8% y/y, the biggest drop since April. And producer prices have been in deflation since September 2022.

While a September Fed rate cut is expected, uncertainty remains about the scale and frequency of future cuts.



Financial Markets Performance:
 

• The USDindex slumped to 100.58 before bouncing to a 101.187 close.
• The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
• The EURUSD and Cable are lower, at currently 1.1059 and 1.31 respectively.
• Oil drifted to $66.67 before recovering slightly to $68.20. Oil marked its lowest close since 2021 after a deep weekly loss pushed futures near levels regarded as oversold, with the focus on weather risks (Storm in Mexico) and reports this week that may clarify the demand outlook.
• Gold tumbling between $2485-2500.
• Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton for the first time since 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th September 2024.

Market Update – Markets prepare for US CPI & Harris-Trump high-stake debate.


Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Wall Street recovered slightly from Friday’s dip. Dip buying got the ball rolling and short covering has added to the bullish momentum.
• Expectations for a soft, rather than hard landing, with the FOMC expected to cut rates by only -25 bps rather than -50 bps have supported as well. The advent of the Treasury’s $119 bln in auctions, along with a heavy corporate calendar also weighed.
• Nvidia and Tesla have paced the strength in big tech. The Dow advanced 1.2%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ climbing 1.16%. Strength was broadbased. Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains of better than 1%, led by consumer discretionary and IT.
• Sights are on today’s presidential debate and then CPI Wednesday.
• European stock markets are narrowly mixed in early trade, with the FTSE 100 underperforming, after a drop in the ILO unemployment rate. The overall labor market report was not as clear-cut, but the data will add to the arguments against back to back cuts and another move from the BoE this month.
• German HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The data will add to the arguments in favor of a cautious cut from the ECB on Thursday.

Financial Markets Performance:
 

• The USDindex found its footing and rose to 101.68 from an overnight low of 101.14.
• The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
• Oil returned to $67.60 after Monday’s gain, driven by the return of a risk-on tone to wider markets.
• Gold edged up 0.36% to $2506.38 ahead of US Inflation tomorrow.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th September 2024.

Market Update – Safe Havens in Demand; Eyes on CPI.


Investors remain cautious about the gloomy outlook for China’s economy & worry that the Fed has delayed easing monetary policy. Traders are anticipating at least 1 significant rate cut this year, ahead of the CPI report, which is expected to show modest inflation growth.

Asia & European Sessions:

 

• Asian equities dropped for a 3rd consecutive session, with Japan and Hong Kong leading the downturn.
• US stock futures slid overnight by 0.6%, as renewed fears of slowing growth in major economies coincided with oil prices stabilizing below $70 and global bond yields hitting a 2-year low.
• Harris-Trump’s debate over the state of the economy and US-China relations had an insignificant impact on the markets. Harris saw her odds of winning the election rise on PredictIt from 53% to 56% following the debate.
• BOJ policy member Junko Nakagawa hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes, boosting Yen to December’s highs. While many economists predict the BOJ will wait until later this year or early next year to raise rates, the next decision is scheduled for next week.
• The CHF is at decades highs against USD, supporting speculation for an aggressive interest rate cut on September 26. Markets expect a 25bps cut, while the likelihood of a 50 bps cut has been increasing.
• The UK economy unexpectedly stagnated in July. GDP has stagnated for two months now, suggesting that despite the robust survey numbers, Q3 GDP growth is likely to disappoint. With interest rates down and wage growth still robust, construction and consumption should get a boost, although this side of the budget there is still a lot of uncertainty that is likely to hold consumers and companies back. For the BoE it won’t be enough to prompt back to back cuts, but it will justify the controversial decision to lower rates last month.
• CPI preview: The August CPI report will be the highlight, just in case there are any surprises that could tip the policy outlook. We expect gains of 0.2% for both headline and core after 0.2% increases for both in July. As-expected results would see the y/y headline sliding to 2.6% from 2.9% in July. Also, the core y/y gain should hold steady at 3.2% in July. Such results should not deter the FOMC from cutting rates.

A higher inflation reading today could lead to increased volatility ,while a softer number might give the Fed more room to cut, but could also signal faster-than-expected economic slowdown.



Financial Markets Performance:
 

• The Yen surged to its strongest level against the US Dollar since December, recovering its yearly losses. It is currently at 141.40 after retesting the 140.696 level.
• The USDCHF drifted further to a 13 year bottom, with CHF and JPY buoyed by faltering carry trades funded through low-interest currencies and increased demand for safe-haven assets. EURCHF remains below its 2015 bottom.
• Bitcoin dipped to $56k again due to Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency sector.
• Oil extended the month’s downleg to 65.34, dropping by nearly 20% this quarter, as worries about slowing growth in the US and China dampen demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th September 2024.

Market Update – Eyes on ECB!


US inflation data supported bets for a rate cut from the Fed next week, but also argued for gradual moves.

Asia & European Sessions:

• Selling initially drove the moves on Wall Street and Treasuries as the pick up in the monthly US CPI core rate weighed on aggressive Fed rate cut bets, and basically confirmed a -25 bp reduction next week. However global equities turned around and dip buyers provided support with the major indexes bouncing off of support.
• European stock markets are broadly higher in catch up trade, after Wall Street turned optimistic yesterday and the tech rally extended through Asian hours. Japanese markets, which were hit by a rally in the yen earlier in the week, bounced back and the Nikkei closed 3.4% higher. DAX and FTSE100 are currently up 1.2% as markets wait for the ECB to deliver the widely expected 25 bp rate cut.
• Tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia drove Wall Street’s gains, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher.
• ECB Preview: Comments from officials have left little doubt that rates will be cut by 25 bp once again at tomorrow’s meeting. It is likely to be another “cautious cut”, however, that doesn’t commit to additional moves. Growth indicators may have come in lower than hoped, and headline inflation dropped sharply. Underlying inflation, though, remains high and that means Lagarde is likely to stick with a data-dependent approach. We expect further cuts, but for now only at meetings with updated staff projections. A 25 bp cut would leave the deposit rate at 3.50% and the main refinancing rate at 4.00%. However, the ECB announced earlier in the year that it intends to lower the spread between the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate to 15 bp from currently 25 bp. That will come into effect on September 18, together with the changes announced tomorrow. That will leave the main refinancing rate at 3.65%, the marginal lending rate at 3.90%.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex is at 101.796 and USDJPY has lifted to 142.66 amid a wider correction in the Yen.
• Oil rebounded 2.19% to $67.80 per barrel due to Hurricane Francine affecting Gulf of Mexico production.
• Gold dipped -0.15% to $2512.89 per ounce after rising to a session high of $2528.98 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th September 2024.

Market Update – Gold reached new record high; USD plummets; Oil 2% higher.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Trading remained choppy as the markets continued to assess data and Fed rate cut risks amid uncertainties over the economy.
• US data points released on Thursday were in line with a 25 bps cut from the FOMC next week, with Chair Powell likely to again stress the path remains data dependent. The increase in unemployment claims and a slight rise in August’s producer price index left room for the Fed to consider more aggressive cuts. However, the components relevant to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure remained subdued.
• The ECB cut rates -25 bps as widely expected. While the general expectation is for another -25 bp easing to help sustain a soft landing, there is still an undercurrent for a -50 bp cut next week.
• A WSJ article noting that Fed policymakers are debating -25 bps versus -50 bps helped give Treasuries a boost late in the day after hotter than expected PPI weighed early on. A small rise in jobless claims also provided some support.
• Gold reached a record high, about 25% up this year, driven by the Fed’s moves towards monetary easing. Investors also scaled back expectations of another ECB rate cut next month, after the ECB lowered rates on Thursday. Additionally, central bank purchases, heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and growing interest from retail investors have fueled the metal’s rally.

Financial Markets Performance:
 

• The USDIndex dropped to 100.64 and is weaker against its G10 peers, with the exception of CHF and CAD.
• Yen retested once again December’s highs, at 140.63 level.
• Wall Street rallied after a mixed start, with the NASDAQ advancing another 1%, while the S&P500 was up 0.75%, and the Dow was 0.58% higher.
• Gold prices marked new record highs to $2570 per ounce as shorts cover.
• Crude oil prices are up 1.05% at $68.68 per barrel due to dollar weakness, risk -on tone and disruption in crude production. Hurricane Francine’s landfall in southern Louisiana on Wednesday led to the shutdown of offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and disrupted refinery operations. The overall bearish tone remains intact, though, and the IEA’s monthly report only added to fears that a slowdown in demand will lead to a supply overhang and continue to weigh on prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 16th September 2024.

Gold and Yen Surge as Safe Haven Demand Increases.
 

 

• Former US President Trump survives another assassination attempt.
• The Japanese Yen remains the best performing currency of the month adding 4.85%. Demand for safe Haven assets such as the Yen and Gold rise.
• Gold continues to increase as global banks downgrade China’s growth forecasts due to poor economic data. Gold rose to an all-time high on Monday.
• Economists advise the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% at this week’s meeting.

USDJPY – The Exchange Rate Declines For 5 Consecutive Days

The US Dollar index trades 0.24% lower and the Japanese Yen Index 0.47% higher during this morning’s Asian session. The exchange rate is currently trading at its lowest point since July 2023 and has fallen for 5 consecutive days. However, investors should also note that the exchange rate is known to see a change in volatility as the European session opens at 07:00 GMT.
 

USDJPY on a 5-Minute Chart Showing Latest Bearish Crossover.

The USDJPY is under pressure for 3 reasons; investors are pricing in a 0.25% rate cut for September, the Bank of Japan may hike again in 2024, and investors are taking advantage of the devalued Yen. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday evening and by the end of the year the Funds Rate will fall to 4.75%. Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed chairman’s comments on how the Fund Rate may end the year.

Investors cannot be certain of the intrinsic value of the exchange rate based on a Federal Fund Rate of 4.75%. Other factors will come into play including whether the Bank of Japan will decide to increase rates by another 0.15%. However, what can be certain is the previous support levels which can be seen at 140.090 and 129.470.

In anticipation of the Bank of Japan’s meeting this Friday, investors are closely watching statements from financial authorities for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions. Last week, board member Mr Nakagawa said that current interest rates remain low, and there is still room to tighten policy if economic and inflation trends align with forecasts.

Board member Naoki Tamura suggests that the rate should be raised to at least 1.0%. However, economists have not backed up this forward guidance and advise this would be a step too far for the near-term future. It has been almost 30 years since the Bank of Japan held its interest rate at 1.00%.

Gold – Safe Haven Demand Surges As Global Banks Cut Interest Rates!

Gold is significantly rising in value as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut is imminent and as other global central banks continue to cut. The European Central Bank is the latest regulator to cut interest rates from 4.25% to 3.65%. On Wednesday, analysts expect the Fed to adjust rates to 5.25%. Demand for Gold is rising due to lower global interest rates, but also the decline in the US Dollar. The US Dollar index trades 0.24% lower and Gold would benefit from a weaker Dollar.

The easing of monetary policy is evident in bond yields, with borrowing costs reduced by more than 25 basis points from July to September. Following the release of this data, analysts have made substantial adjustments to their forecasts. As of today, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a rate change by this amount at 59.0%, down from 85.0% yesterday.

Another reason for the higher demand is the latest reports that China’s economy is not likely to reach previous growth expectations. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday revealed a slowdown in industrial production, retail sales, and real estate activity this month compared to July.
 

XAUUSD (Gold) on a 2-Hour Chart With Fibonacci Retracement Levels.

In terms of technical analysis, Gold is trading above the trend-line including the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. The asset is also trading higher than the Volume-weighted average price and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. For this reason, indications point towards buyer holding control and the likelihood of a continued upward trend to remain. Though investors should note that in a short period of time, Gold has risen more than 3.00% which could prompt investors to quickly cash in earned profits.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th September 2024.

US Market Awaits Fed: Will a 0.25% Cut Cause a Drop?

• European indices including the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX continue to trade higher.
• The European Central Bank’s latest cut continues to benefit European stocks.
• US Stocks “mixed” with the Dow Jones rising 0.55%, the SNP500 0.14% ending the day 0.47% lower.
• The Dow Jones was the best performing US index, largely driven upwards by the performance of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Visa stocks.

Dow Jones Leads, Outshining NASDAQ and S&P 500!

On Monday, 84% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value with Intel, Cisco Systems and Travelers Cos being the best performing. The index also rose to its highest ever value, so far adding 10.36% this year. Why is the Dow Jones performing better than the NASDAQ and the SNP500?



The stock market in general is known to benefit from interest rate reductions which will take place tomorrow evening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance of the Fed increasing 50 basis points, not 25. However, most economists believe the central bank will opt for 3 consecutive 25 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. For this reason, there is a risk of misjudging the Fed, the monetary policy and how to price the stock market. As a result, investors are turning to the Dow Jones which is exposed to fewer stocks, witnessing higher exposure to the banking sector and to defensive stocks such as Procter and Gamble. On Monday, Procter and Gamble rose 1.82%.

According to experts, if the Federal Reserve does adjust the Federal Fund Rate by 0.50%, all indices are likely to increase in value. Whereas, if the Fed cuts only 0.25%, investors will want to be exposed to a more balanced index such as the Dow Jones. Investors will want to be prepared and plan for volatility in both directions.

When monitoring the VIX and Bond Yields, certain signals are indicating some short-term weakness. The VIX is currently trading almost 1.00% higher and bond yields have added 0.005%. This does not necessarily indicate a decline but possibly some weakness before the upcoming interest rate decision. However, if the VIX declines and yields do not rise further, the Dow may again witness positive price movements.

Technical analysis currently signals that buyers are controlling the market with the Dow Jones trading above the trend-line, price sentiment line and above the VWAP. The 75-period EMA and 100-Period SMA have also crossed upwards on the 2-hour chart. The only concern for investors is that the price has risen for 4 consecutive days potentially triggering a more cautious view.

Lastly, the performance of the Dow Jones within the US session will depend on today’s Retail Sales release. The US Retail Sales is likely to decline 0.2% after rising 1.00% in the previous month. Analysts expect Core Retail Sales to read 0.2%. A higher Retail Sales figure is likely to support the stock market in the short-term.

DAX on the Rise: Can the Momentum Keep Going?

The German DAX has risen for 4 consecutive days as has the Dow Jones. However, the price has fallen as the EU Cash Open edges nearer (0.10%). The index is not trading at an all-time high but is trading at an area where the index has previously found resistance on two occasions.



The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates more than what analysts were previously expecting supports the index. The monetary policy adjustment also stopped the downward trend seen so far this month. The question is now whether the DAX will continue to rise accordingly. According to economists, three factors will be necessary for continued growth; for both the ECB and Fed to continue cutting rates in 2024, positive EU data and positive earnings data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[pradegxs]

Do you still offer no-deposit or credit bonus for new clients?

[HFM]

Date: 18th September 2024.

What Does Tonight’s Fed Rate Cut Mean For Gold and the Yen?

• The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Pound remains slightly weaker on Wednesday.
• Gold retraces as traders increase the possibility of a 0.25% rate cut after yesterday’s Retail Sales.
• Gold positions break the previous annual record of 242.314K indicating the high demand. JP Morgan advises the largest risk to the global economy remains the tensions within the Middle-East and this can also impact Gold.
• US Retail Sales unexpectedly rose 0.1%, higher than the previous expectation of -0.2%.

XAUUSD – Gold Retraces As Economists Stick To Their 0.25% Rate Cut Prediction!

The price of Gold on Tuesday fell 0.50% moving back to the trend-line (75-Period EMA) and then retraced upwards overnight. However, the price is now actively declining as we approach the opening of the European Cash Open. Previously the price of Gold significantly rose due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates. However, the pricing changes depending on a 0.25% and 0.50% interest rate cut. According to experts, 0.25% could apply some short-term pressure on Gold unless the Fed also adds dovish comments for the upcoming months.

The reason why a 0.25% cut could potentially be negative is because investors have partially priced Gold based on a 0.50% cut, not 0.25%. Therefore, the price movement is largely dependent on tonight’s Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference. During the press conference, investors will be expecting guidance from the chairman, Mr Powell, regarding potential future rate cuts. According to Bloomberg, traders have significantly increased the likelihood of a 0.50% rate cut. However, Bloomberg surveyed 115 US economists, of which 104 advised the Fed would opt for 0.25%.

Leading trading platforms confirm the surge of new investors in gold. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, long positions in contracts have reached 246.214K, surpassing the previous annual record of 242.314K. Seller positions in this category remain low, totaling just 19.505K transactions. A similar trend is seen at the CME Group, where the average daily trading volume for gold contracts over the past week was 376.2K, far exceeding August’s average of 134.0K.



In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.

GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!

The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.



The Great British Pound Index trades 0.06% lower but is slightly improving since the release of the latest UK inflation date. The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Bank of England’s rate decision and press conference will take place tomorrow. Analysts advise the BoE is likely to keep interest rates at 5.00% which is positive for the British Pound.

According to Bloomberg, if the Fed opts to cut interest rates by 0.50%, the Bank of Japan may choose not to increase interest rates again this year. Economists added that the Bank of Japan would prefer for the Yen to gradually decline back to 135.00. Therefore, a 0.50% rate cut could turn negative for the GBPJPY, however, the price movement would need to confirm this.

The GBPJPY is trading at the 55.00 level on the RSI, above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. On the 5-Minute chart, the GBPJPY is also close to crossing above the 250-Period SMA. Therefore, most indicators are indicating upward price movement. Nonetheless, this will depend largely on the upcoming monetary policy developments.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th September 2024.

Bigger Interest Rate Cuts Spark Surge In Demand For The NASDAQ!

• Stocks rally after the Federal Reserve chooses to “go-large” with a 0.50% interest rate cut.
• The NASDAQ rises more than 2.50% and the Dow Jones 1.26%. The Dow Jones trades at an all-time high.
• UK Retail Sales rose significantly above expectations. The Great British Pound Index rises 0.35% and is the best performing index after the Japanese Yen.
• Gold attempts to break an all-time high as analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut a further 0.50% by the end of the year.

NASDAQ – Larger Interest Rate Cuts Prompt Higher Demand

The NASDAQ saw a clear bullish trend with the index rising for 5 consecutive hours as the US Session opened. The higher demand is a clear result of the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates 0.50% and not 0.25%.

The US Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the interest rate, lowering it from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. In his remarks, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, highlighted that the target inflation rate of 2% had been achieved but suggested further decreases could follow. The updated economic forecast projects consumer price growth at 2.3% by the end of the year, down from the previous estimate of 2.6%. Furthermore, economic growth is now forecasted at 2%, compared to the 2.1% predicted in July.



As a result, the Fed expects the key rate to drop to 4.50% this year and reach 3.40% by the end of 2025. Therefore, investors are changing their view as to the “intrinsic value” of the NASDAQ and the stock market in general. The NASDAQ on Thursday was the best performing index largely due to its exposure to growth stocks. Of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks, 85% rose in value on Thursday and none of the top ten influential stocks depreciated.

When monitoring other areas of the market, such as bond yields, indications still remain that buyers will control the NASDAQ. The US 10-Year Treasury Yields has fallen 0.024% during this morning’s asian session. Lower bond yields are known to be positive for the NASDAQ, and investors will continue monitoring the decline in yields throughout the day. The VIX index this morning is trading 0.15% higher; ideally buyers and shareholders would wish for the VIX to decline into a minus figure. Yesterday’s stronger employment data also continues to support the NASDAQ and stocks in general.

Technical analysis continues to indicate bullish price movement due to the upward momentum and volatility. However, as the NASDAQ is currently retracing, upward momentum will need to be regained in order for a buy signal to materialize. When attaching the Fibonnaci retracement levels onto the retracement, a potential buy signal can be seen at $19,920. However, investors are also concerned the price is trading at the resistance level from August 22nd.

GBPUSD – UK Retail Sales Significantly Higher Than Expectations!

The GBPUSD rose to its highest level since February 2022 after rising 0.38% during this morning’s Asian Session. The bullish price movement is related to both the US Dollar’s decline but also the bullish price movement the Pound has seen against the whole currency market. Currently, the GBP is the best performing currency of 2024 so far but also of the day. So far in 2024, the British Pound has risen 4.42%.



The Pound’s upward momentum is largely due to the Bank of England’s decision to keep its interest rate at 5.00%, whereas other global regulators had opted to cut interest rates. In addition to this, the UK’s Retail Sales figure for August read 1.0%, significantly higher than the previous expectations of 0.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd September 2024.

Market Update – Gold at record highs; Stocks climb amid Chinese stimulus bets.


Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Asian markets were mostly positive on Monday, buoyed by last week’s interest rate decisions from central banks in the US, Japan, China, and the UK.
• PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.85% from 1.95%, following a decision to keep key lending rates unchanged the previous week. China’s decision to hold an unusual economic briefing involving three top financial regulators and its cut to a key short-term policy rate heightened speculation about forthcoming stimulus efforts.
• Chinese stocks rose after the bank’s announcement.
• Japan’s stock markets were closed due to a public holiday.
• Attention remained on the BoJ which also stayed put (0.25%) & Ueda suggested that the central bank is cautious on further tightening amid ongoing uncertainty. This decision led to a drop in the Yen.
• Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.5% to 8,170.50 as the RBA prepared for a 2-day policy meeting. The NASDAQ and S&P500 stumbled on Friday to 17,948 and 5702. The Dow edged up 0.1%, reaching a new record high of 42,579.
• This week: key US economic data is expected, including reports on business activity, consumer spending, and a final revision of the economy’s growth during the spring.

The Fed’s decision to cut its key interest rate last week for the first time in over 4 years, with further cuts expected, signaled a shift from its previous high-rate stance aimed at curbing inflation. While inflation has eased, concerns remain about the slowing pace of job growth due to the weight of higher interest rates. Some critics argue that the Fed may have delayed rate cuts too long, potentially harming the economy.

Financial Markets Performance:

• Gold surged to a record high, reaching $2,631.13, as traders anticipated more rate cuts by the Fed following its recent 50 bps reduction. Bullion’s momentum was further supported by concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East, with investors turning to gold as a safe-haven asset. Despite this rally, gold may be overbought, with its RSI nearing 70, a signal of possible short-term overextension.
• Meanwhile, silver, palladium, and platinum posted losses.
• USOIL rose to $71.59 per barrel, while UKOIL gained 52 cents, reaching $75.01 per barrel. Currently they have both seen a pullback slightly into EU open.
• Yen slid from last week’s high of around 140 per US dollar to 144.36 yen by today.
• The USDIndex steadied to 100.50 area.
• The Euro inched higher to 1.1164 but currently is steady after Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly defeated the far-right Alternative for Germany party, maintaining control of the eastern state of Brandenburg. Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier signaled potential tax increases on large corporations and the wealthy to address the country’s growing budget deficit.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited September 23 by HFM

[HFM]

Date: 24th September 2024.

Market Update – Risk-on Mood due to stimulus measures; Commodities climb.


Asia & European Sessions:
 

• More new highs were set on Wall Street today as the Fed’s jumbo rate cut continues to reverberate. Fedspeakers indicated more cuts are in the future.
• European stocks are poised for a positive open, following a rally in Asian markets driven by China’s latest economic stimulus efforts aimed at stabilizing its stock market.
• China’s plan to inject 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) in liquidity support for its stock market alongside measures allowing brokerages to access central bank funds to buy equities, boosted investors’ confidence. These moves are part of a broader stimulus package that includes cuts to short-term interest rates and reduced borrowing costs on up to $5.3 trillion in mortgages.
• While the market responded positively to these policies, analysts warn that the rally could be short-lived, as underlying issues like deflation remain unresolved.
• The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% for the 7th consecutive meeting, while leaving future policy options open.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5%, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index marked its fourth consecutive daily gain. Hong Kong stocks surged over 4%.
• US Stock market remains positive, with the S&P rallying another 0.28% to 5719 while the Dow was up 0.15% to 42,125. This is the 40th new record this year on the former and the 30th for the latter. The NASDAQ rose 0.14% to 17,974.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex was up slightly to 100.898, but failed to hold the test of 101.229.
• Gold managed another fresh peak too, rising 0.18% to $2640 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and expectations for further declines in interest rates.
• USOil prices recovered yesterday’s losses amid rising tensions in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.
• Μost Asian currencies strengthened against the US Dollar, with the Aussie rising against US dollar, i.e. AUDUSD falling to 0.6820, and the yield on 3-year bonds fluctuated.
• USDJPY retests 144.70 (top of falling triangle).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 03rd October 2024.

Dovish ECB Comments Send Euro Downward as Investors Eye US Jobs Data

• US employment data indicates a resilient employment sector ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data.
• Latvia’s governor, Mr Kazaks, says that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate cuts at the October meeting
• Investors continue to predict a cautious 0.25% cut due to strong employment data.
• The US Dollar continues to be the week’s best performing currency due to a more hawkish approach and a lower risk appetite.

EURUSD – Investors Ditch the Euro For the US Dollar!

The market continues to drive the EURUSD lower due to expectations of the more competitive US market and monetary policy. In addition to this, investors are increasing exposure to the US Dollar due to a lower risk appetite while the Middle East conflict escalates. Yesterday’s Live Trading Session (Click Here) pointed out the sell indications between 1.10735 and 1.10684, of which now the price is trading 0.45% lower.



However, as the price is now extremely close to the previous support levels from September 3rd and 11th, Investors should be cautious of buyers re-entering the market at these levels. The support levels can be seen between 1.10256 and 1.10050. In order to break these levels, investors may require further drivers such as tomorrow’s US Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

Analysts also expect the NFP Employment Change to add 144,000, very similar figures to the previous month. Though some economists now believe this data could beat expectations due to stronger employment data as NFP Friday approaches. Tomorrow’s employment data will trigger significantly higher volatility for the EURUSD.

The Institution For Supply Management (ISM) will publish their second PMI report of the week this afternoon. The Manufacturing PMI read lower than expectations, however, the market gave higher importance to the employment data. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Employment Change read 143,000 which is 19,000 more than the previous prediction. The higher ADP data was driven by leisure and entertainment (34K), construction (26K), and education and healthcare (24K). Today investors will turn their attention mainly to the US Services PMI as well as the Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos mentioned that short-term economic growth in the region could be slower than anticipated. However, he expects future recovery to gain momentum, driven by rising real household incomes and easing monetary policy. Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, added that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate adjustments at the October meeting, citing slow wage growth, declining corporate profits, and weak economic recovery across much of Europe. The ECB’s dovish comments also continue to pressure the EURUSD.

Economists currently advise the European economy will not be able to see higher growth unless the ECB opts to cut interest rates to no more than 2%. For this reason, the Euro has been the worst performing currency of the past month only behind the Japanese Yen. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December.

The price movement of the exchange rate will largely be driven by the price movement of the US Dollar and US news. Therefore, the US Dollar Index will be key. If the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Unemployment Claims are lower than expectations, the EURUSD may be at a good level to retrace back upwards. This is due to the price being at a support level and having already fallen 1.65%. However, even with a retracement upwards, the EURUSD on the 2-Hour Chart remains below the trend-line and below the neutral level on most oscillators.

If the price remains below 1.10427, any short-term upward price movement will form nothing more than a retracement. As a result, medium-term buy signals potentially remain intact for the EURUSD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 04th October 2024.

Investors Increase Jobs Data Expectations As The Dollar Strengthens!

• The US Dollar increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as the NFP release edges closer.
• US economic data continues to support a soft landing and gradual interest rate cuts.
• US ISM Services PMI beat expectations and rose to an 18-month high.
• Oil prices rise to a 30-day high as Israel confirms the IDF will retaliate against Iran’s latest strikes.

NZDUSD – Markets Expect The RBNZ To Cut, USD Depends On Jobs Data!

The NZDUSD continues to trade downwards for a third day and has done so while only forming one minor retracement. Traders now question how far the exchange rate can fall?



Price action is currently indicating that the market is attempting to drive the exchange rate lower as the Federal Reserve dials down its dovish tone. So far, the price potential looks on track to decline closer to the previous support levels. The closest support level can be seen at 0.61514 and then 0.61234. However, if it is able to do so will depend on the upcoming economic data, particularly this afternoon’s US employment data.

The market has raised their NFP Employment Change expectations to 150,000 for September. However, participants continue to predict no change for the Unemployment Rate. If the NFP rises above the expected figure while the Unemployment Rate remains the same or falls, the data would potentially support the USD further. In addition to this, the next Federal Reserve rate decision in November will most definitely be a 25-basis point cut. This would be key for the NZDUSD to continue its bearish trend back to the 0.61234 level.

On the other hand, investors also should note that the RBNZ will also confirm their rate decision on Wednesday 9th. Therefore, can the price action change as we approach the weekend and next week’s rate decision? This is something investors will need to monitor. Though, so far the worst performing currency of the week continues to be the New Zealand Dollar along with the Japanese Yen.

House prices in New Zealand fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slower rate, dropping by just 0.5% following a decrease in borrowing costs, according to economists at CoreLogic NZ. This trend highlights a reduction in purchasing power amid a slowing economy, as rising unemployment starts to impact household incomes. The outlook could shift if monetary authorities maintain their dovish approach at their upcoming meeting on October 9th. Notably, this stance has already helped bring the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.

If the above data does prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, the NZD could witness stronger pressure. The Official Cash Rate is currently at 5.25% and analysts expect the Central Bank to cut a further 0.50% to 4.75%.



When evaluating the price movement on the two hour timeframe, the NZDUSD is finding support at the same price but the resistance is not yet clear. This also indicates that sellers remain considerably active. The support level can be seen at 0.62066 and the price has crossed downwards which indicates a sell signal. Though some traders may wish for the support level to be broken before speculating downward price movement.

Furthermore, on the 5-Minute Chart the NZDUSD trades below the 200-bar SMA and on the 2-Hour Chart below the 75-bar EMA. This indicates the trend could potentially continue but traders will need to be cautious about volatility and timing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 07th October 2024.

Oil bets most Bullish in 2 Years, Stocks pared some gains.


The September NFP report was a blowout by almost every measure. It quickly knocked out lingering fears of a recession this year or early next, but also knocked out expectations for another jumbo -50 bp rate cut this year. So, what’s the market signaling right now? ‘Goldilocks’ scenario?

Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Equity markets have moved broadly higher across Asia, and European markets are also finding buyers in early trade. Recent US data have boosted growth optimism, and Chinese officials seem more committed to growth boosting stimulus measures.
• Japanese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nikkei rising by 2.05%, driven by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Power sectors.
• European equities continue to benefit from a positive US jobs report. The DAX and FTSE 100 have already started to pare opening gains and the DAX is down -0.1%, while the FTSE 100 up a mere 0.04%.
• Data:German manufacturing orders plunged -3.8% m/m in August & U.K. house prices rose 0.3% m/m in September, according to the Halifax index. German data added to signs that the German economy will contract again this year.
• This Week: The inflation data are in view and will have a little more importance as the jobs report has extinguished fears of a recession and boosted the potential for a pick up in price pressures ahead. We expect gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for headline and core CPI for September (Thursday). Increases of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for September PPI (Friday). Along with the data, there is a host of Fedspeakers through the week and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). Supply is also on tap with the Treasury selling $119 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities.
• Earnings season looms: JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report on Friday, with PepsiCo in the spotlight tomorrow and Delta Air Lines on Thursday.

Financial Markets Performance:
 

• The USDIndex traded within Friday’s range so far today and is at 102.32.
• The USDJPY surged to test 149.00 immediately after the data before drifting down to 148.80. Still, this is the strongest since July and early August were the pair hit a multidecade peak at 161.69 on July 3. Currebntly is at 148.13
• According to Bloomberg, Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. USOILhas lifted to $74.63 per barrel as markets watch developments in the Middle East. Gold meanwhile is at USD 2649.19 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 08th October 2024.

Stock markets remain under pressure; bonds find buyers.


Asia & European Sessions:
 

• The markets were weaker Monday as players continued to adjust to Friday’s strong September data and price out aggressive rate cut expectations. In fact Fed funds futures have not only taken out risks for -50 bps next month, but now reflect chances for no action at all.
• Wall Street was in the red all session and the selloff extended into the close, in part given the pop in rates.
• Asian markets mostly corrected, with the Hang Seng leading the way and plunging -7.1% as mainland China bourses returned from a week-long holiday. The CSI 300 rose 5.8% in catch up trade, but failed to match the rally seen elsewhere over the past week.
• Investors were disappointed by the briefing from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, which did not present any additional stimulus measures. Instead, a CNY 100 billion investment plan scheduled for next year will be brought forward. China also announced a plan to issue special purpose bonds designed to stimulate local government growth.
• According to FT: ”Hong Kong equities were on track for their worst single-day performance since the global financial crisis on Tuesday, even as stocks in mainland China rose on their first day of trading after an extended break.”
• RBA minutes suggested that the bank will keep interest rates at their 12-year high until inflation shows consistent signs of nearing its target. Minutes also reveal that the board considered both tightening and easing monetary policy, depending on future economic conditions. For now, they have decided to maintain the rate at 4.35%, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Financial Markets Performance:
 

• The USDIndex closed at 102.493 after hitting a high of 102.620, the best since August 15.
• USOil rallied 3.9% to $77.87 per barrel prior to retreating to $75.44.
• Gold holds $2620 floor for a 3rd week in a row.
• Treasury yields hit their highest levels since the summer. The NASDAQ dropped -1.18%, while the S&P500 slumped -0.96%, with the Dow off -0.94%.
• Nikkei lost 1.2% to 38,861.09.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 09th October 2024.

Mag 7 surged, Oil dipped as China weighed on the demand outlook.


It is a real mix in the markets amid a confluence of factors including positioning, Fed policy outlooks, growth and inflation outlooks, election uncertainties, and stimulus (or lack of) from China.

Asia & European Sessions:
 

• Wall Street climbed amid a surge in the Mag 7 stocks, paced by Nvidia (+4%). Stocks are recovering in general after the retreat to begin the month as unwinding of big rate cut bets and geopolitical angst weighed. Investor optimism has gotten a boost from signs of a solid labor market and economy, as well as from the stimulus from China.
• Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the S&P500 to 6,000. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.45% advance, while the S&P500 was 0.97% higher, and the Dow was up 0.30%. The VIX fell -5.3% to 21.43.
• The US Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it may request a court order compelling Alphabet’s Google to sell off parts of its business, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system, which authorities argue are key tools in maintaining its illegal monopoly in the online search market (handles 90% of internet searches in the US, had established an unlawful monopoly).
• Nvidia surged 4% posting its 5th consecutive day of gains. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 14% in the past week and are up 190% over the past year. Several major investment firms, including KeyBanc, Citi, and Bernstein, reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. KeyBanc analysts also increased their 2025 sales forecast for Nvidia to $130.6 billion, driven by strong demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, which are expected to contribute $7 billion to fourth-quarter revenue. Wedbush analysts highlighted that the recent $6.6 billion funding round for OpenAI could spur further investment in AI startups, boosting Nvidia’s AI chip demand well into 2025.

Financial Markets Performance:
 

• The USDIndex was little changed at 102.50.
• USOil slid -4.17% to $72.26 per barrel following the climb to a session peak of $78.46 Monday, in part as China failed to add to its stimulus binge. Oil is facing a tug-of-war between fundamentals indicating a surplus in 2025 and geopolitical tensions.
• Gold broke below the key $2620 per ounce from the record $2672.38 from late September amid expectations for a benign CPI report ahead along with the firmer dollar. Risk aversion has been keeping demand for the precious metal underpinned, even against the background of a pickup in yields and a stronger dollar. OTC sales have also helped to boost prices, while central bank demand has eased somewhat with the rise in prices. Recent data showed that China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.