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Date: 19th March 2024.

Market Recap ‚Äď It‚Äôs a classic ‚ÄėBuy the rumour, sell the fact.

 
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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The advent of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the further slippage in Fed rate cut expectations extended selling pressures on Treasuries.

 
  • Corporate issuance¬†and the¬†risk-on trades¬†into equities weighed too.
  • BoJ delivers dovish hike:¬†The¬†BoJ¬†ended its yield curve control, ETF buying and the 8 years of negative interest rates and ushered in the nation‚Äôs first policy tightening since 2007.¬†Also the bank pledged to continue to buy long-term government bonds. There was little indication of additional hikes, which signalled that this is not the first step of a rapid tightening cycle.
  • RBA drops tightening bias,¬†as it keeps the policy rate at a 12-year-high. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for another meeting, but removed any reference to possible further hikes from the statement. When asked if the RBA had indeed moved to a neutral stance, Bullock said the risks to the outlook are indeed ‚Äúfinely balanced now‚ÄĚ.
  • Today: The FOMC meets for 2 days, and will issue its post-meeting statement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024.
Market Trends:
 
  • Wall Street bounced but pared its early rally. It continued to shrug off the evolving Fed outlook and instead re-focused on tech enthusiasm.
  • A Bloomberg report that¬†Apple¬†is in talks to build Google‚Äôs Gemini AI engine into the iPhone boosted risk appetite.
  • The¬†NASDAQ (US100)¬†advanced 0.82%, after halving early gains. The¬†S&P500 (US500)¬†was up 0.63% and the Dow was 0.20% higher.
  • Nikkei (JPN225)¬†was choppy after the decision but closed 0.66% higher, while Japanese government bond yields fell.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-15.png


Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†firmed and held over the¬†103¬†mark. It rose to¬†103.45.
  • The¬†USDJPY¬†lifted to¬†150.47,¬†with the Yen paring recent gains, despite the hike, as Ueda made clear that the inflation target has not been reached yet. As interest rate differentials between Japan and the United States remain stark, Yen is likely to remain under pressure.
  • Antipodeans: AUD¬†and¬†NZD¬†slid to 2-week lows, i.e.¬†0.6515¬†and¬†0.6050¬†respectively.
  • Gold¬†eased to $2,153.95 and¬†USOIL¬†steadied at $82.
  • Bitcoin¬†drifted for a 4th day in a row, currently at $64,500,¬†slightly above 20-DMA.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 20th March 2024.

Market Recap ‚Äď All eyes on FED.

 
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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • Treasury yields are sinking¬†as bonds await the FOMC‚Äôs results. The market is recovering slightly from this month‚Äôs selloff that has taken rates to the highest levels since late November.
  • Stock markets traded mixed overnight,¬†while Bonds have been in demand as the FOMC announcement comes into view.
  • German producer prices fell -4.1% y/y in February.¬†PPI has bottomed out, but so far is still firmly in negative territory, largely thanks to a -10.1% y/y drop in energy prices. Developments are backing the ECB‚Äôs assessment that things are moving in the right direction. Services price inflation though, which is more driven by wage growth than goods prices, remains stubbornly high for now.
  • UK inflation continues to decelerate adding support to the bond market.¬†The data confirms that inflation is moving in the right direction, but also that it remains far too high, which will justify a dovish hold from the BoE tomorrow.
  • FOMC Checklist:¬†The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement today. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024. The SEP was last updated in December, and is due for another update at this March meeting.
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Market Trends:
 
  • A mixed open on Wall Street with some weakness on profit taking after further AI inspired gains. The¬†Dow¬†climbed 0.83%, with the¬†S&P500 (US500)¬†advancing 0.56%, while the¬†NASDAQ (US100)¬†was up 0.39%.
  • ASX¬†paring some of Tuesday‚Äôs gains, while China bourses nudged higher.
  • Nvidia (+1.07%)¬†debuts next-generation Blackwell AI chip at GTC 2024.
  • Microsoft hires DeepMind founder to lead new AI shift.
  • Apple¬†is in talks with¬†Alphabet‚Äôs Google¬†to potentially incorporate Google‚Äôs ‚ÄúGemini‚ÄĚ generative AI engine into its iPhones.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-16.png


Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†found a bid too after the BoJ‚Äôs dovish hike. It tested 104.06 but slid to 103.82 at the close.
  • USDJPY¬†is at¬†151.57¬†spiking to 4-month highs while¬†EURJPY¬†spiked to a 16-year peak after the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates without clear guidance on further hikes.
  • A stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence reading failed to boost the¬†Euro¬†significantly.¬†Cable¬†is holding slightly below the 1.27 mark.
  • Gold¬†flattened for a 3rd day in a row and¬†USOIL¬†fell to $82.24 from $83.
  • Bitcoin¬†continued to pull back from its recent record high,¬†falling over 5%¬†at one point. Shares of crypto-linked companies Coinbase (COIN) and Marathon Digital (MARA) lost ground alongside the token.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 21st March 2024.

Market Recap ‚Äď Gold & Stocks at record highs; Fed maintained rate cut forecast.

 
DOLLAR-BALANCE-696x365.png

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The Fed signalled that rate cuts are still in the cards, stock markets rallied, Treasury yield were lower and the US Dollar was down from earlier highs.

 
  • DOT PLOT: Fed keeps rates on hold and signals 75 basis points of cuts this year! ‚Äst9 officials out of 19 expressed the need of 3 rate cuts, and 1 expects 4 rate cuts. For the remainder of the 2024 forecasts, 5 expect two rate cuts, 2 expect one rate cut, and 2 expect no cuts.
  • The Fed left policy unchanged, as expected.¬†And although the revisions on the Fed funds path, as well as on the economy and inflation were all hawkish, Chair Powell said ‚Äúthe story is the same one,‚ÄĚ meaning rate cuts are still in the cards and the Fed is confident it will achieve its objectives over time.
  • Australia:¬†Robust jobs data released this morning supported Aussie, with 116,500 roles added to the economy in February.
  • New Zealand:¬†The GDP showed the country unexpectedly¬†fell into a recession¬†in the second half of 2023.
  • Today‚Äôs¬†round of European central bank decisions includes BoE, SNB and Norges Bank!
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-1.png


Market Trends:
 
  • Asian shares rallied¬†to their highest in 2 years. The¬†Nikkei¬†and¬†Hang Seng¬†surged more than 2% and the¬†ASX¬†gained 1.1%.
  • The optimism in other markets is set to spill over into European trading. The Euro Stoxx 50 future is up 1.2% and US futures are broadly higher.
  • Wall Street surged with the¬†NASDAQ (US100)¬†rising 1.3% for its first record high close since March 1. All¬†Magnificent Seven stocks advanced.¬†The¬†S&P500 (US500)¬†climbed 0.89% to¬†5224,¬†the first time with a¬†5200¬†handle, and the¬†Dow¬†advanced¬†1.03%¬†to¬†39,512.
Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†US Dollar¬†slumped marginally with the¬†USDIndex¬†sliding to¬†102.80¬†at the close after testing¬†103.80¬†earlier.
  • JPY, AUD and NZD¬†reverted some losses gaining some ground against the US Dollar.
  • Gold climbs to record high above $2200 in sudden spike¬†‚Äď due to to growing expectations of US interest rate cuts, which would make the non-yielding asset relatively more attractive, Chinese purchases, geopolitics turn investors to the haven asset.
  • USOIL¬†fell to $80.88.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 22th March 2024.
 
Pending Orders and Apple Lawsuit Apply Selling Pressure on the NASDAQ!

 

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  • Apple stocks witness the second largest decline within the NASDAQ, falling more than 4.00%. Shareholders sold shares after news of another federal antitrust law violation.
  • Apple is set to receive its second fine from regulators for ‚Äúmonopolizing‚ÄĚ the phone sector. The company has already received a $1.8 billion fine from the EU.
  • The NASDAQ rises 2.43% after the Fed‚Äôs dovish tone before triggering pending orders. The USA100 ended the day 0.24% higher.
  • UK Retail Sales remain unchanged beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. The Pound declines against most currencies regardless of higher retail sales data.

USA100 ‚Äď Apple Stocks Struggle After A Second Antitrust Lawsuit!

 

The price of the USA100 is trading slightly lower during this morning’s Asian session continuing the downward momentum from 18:00 (GMT+2) onwards. The downward momentum was largely due to pending orders to sell at the new high. These orders are seen on the Depth of Market and Volume profile. However, in addition to this, the NASDAQ’s second most influential stock, Apple, declined more than 4%.

 

The NASDAQ has assigned a ‚Äúweight‚ÄĚ of 7.71% to Apple stock which is a concern for NASDAQ holders. This is because Apple has received another lawsuit against them for antitrust violations and ‚Äúmonopolizing‚ÄĚ the industry through purposely making competitors‚Äô products less suitable. Certain States within the US advised ‚ÄúApple‚Äôs success is less based on the merits of their product but making other products less convenient for consumers‚ÄĚ.

 

This would be the second penalty for Apple in 2024. The EU has already given Apple a $1.8 billion fine which has caused Apple stocks to fall up to 10%. If Apple stocks continue to decline, this may apply some pressure on the USA100 and will definitely result in the stock holding a lower weight. The USA100 was better supported by stocks with less weight rather than the more influential stocks. Of the top 20 influential stocks, 9 fell in value, while only 27% fell in value when monitoring the whole NASDAQ. Later in the day, the stock market in general can witness volatility as the Fed chairman is due to speak.

 

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-03-2

 

In terms of technical analysis, we can see the regression channel has thinned, which indicates there are no current active signals. The price instead will need to gain momentum and direction in order for signals to materialise. The breakout levels can be seen at $18,317.20 and $18,377.37. However, investors should note that these levels can also form ‚Äúfalse breakouts‚ÄĚ. The medium-term charts, such as the 2-hour chart, indicate buyers control the market. However, if a bearish price movement forms, support can be found between $18,191 and $18,246.

 

GBPUSD ‚Äď Economic Data Continues to Improve Sentiment Towards The Dollar!

 

The cable exchange rate trades at its lowest level in over a month due to the strengthening Dollar and dovishness amongst members of the Bank of England. The exchange rate fell 0.99% on Thursday and a further 0.56% during this morning’s two sessions.

 

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-03-2

 

The BoE‚Äôs accompanying statement stated that inflation pressures are weakening, but wage growth rates remain above target levels, creating additional risks for the economy if the transition to a ‚Äúdovish‚ÄĚ course is too rapid. Though investors are concentrating more on the fact the Monetary Policy Committee saw no votes for a rate hike. For this reason, the committee seem more bearish than bullish. 8 members voted for a pause and 1 for a cut.

 

The US Dollar on the other hand is trading higher due to weakness in other currencies and the possibilities of less frequent cuts. Based on the comments from the Fed, the regulator will not delay the cuts but simply make them less frequent. In addition to this, the US Dollar is being supported by the latest US economic data. Unemployment claims remained low while the Philly Fed Index and Existing Home Sales significantly rose above expectations. In addition to this, investors were happy to see both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indexes remain above the significant 50.00 mark.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 26th March 2024.

Market Recap ‚Äď Quarter End Comes Into View.

 
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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Treasuries, Wall Street, and the US Dollar all posted small losses to start the abbreviated week of trading.
 
  • The market is consolidating into quarter-end.¬†This week‚Äôs supply is pressuring at the margin, while uncertainty over the Fed‚Äôs rate path is limiting buying. Though the just-published dots assuaged concerns over the prospects for less than 3 rate cuts this year, anxiety remains high, especially after Bostic said he trimmed his estimate to 1 easing this year from 2 previously.
  • Stock markets traded cautiously overnight, as the quarter end comes into view. China bourses outperformed, while Nikkei and ASX corrected.
  • The offshore Yuan strengthened for a second day after¬†China‚Äôs central bank reinforced its support for the currency.
  • Geopolitics:¬†Ukrainian drone attacks have caused disruptions at Russian oil refineries, with around 12% of the country‚Äôs oil processing capacity reportedly impacted. A resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by Russia and China and a terrorist attack in Russia over the weekend added to geopolitical risks as did fresh threats by Yemen-based Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia.
Market Trends:
 
  • Wall Street slipped on profit taking ahead of quarter-end,¬†having made strong gains since the start of the year and hitting record highs last Thursday.
  • The¬†Dow¬†fell -0.41%, the¬†S&P500¬†was off -0.31% and the¬†NASDAQ¬†was down -0.27%. For the quarter, the¬†S&P500¬†and¬†NASDAQ¬†are up 9.44% and 9.15%, respectively, and the¬†Dow¬†is up 4.3%.
  • DAX¬†and¬†FTSE100¬†futures are also in the red, while US futures have moved higher.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-17.png


Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†has been in consolidation mode at the start of the week and is currently trading at¬†103.77.
  • The¬†Yen¬†strengthened against¬†USD¬†and¬†CHF,¬†but¬†USDJPY¬†is still at¬†151.20.¬†Japan‚Äôs top currency officials warned against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets, after the recent weakness in the yen saw USDJPY climbing above 151 once again.
  • Gold¬†continues to trade near record highs, but the ascent has been capped by the recent rise in the Dollar and caution ahead of the¬†US PCE price index,¬†which is the Fed‚Äôs preferred inflation gauge and is due to be released on Friday.
  • Copper¬†prices fell amid ongoing demand concerns. For¬†agricultural¬†commodities, the ascent in¬†cocoa prices remains noteworthy.
  • USOIL¬†inched higher above $81.50, amid fresh supply concerns.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 27th March 2024.

Market Recap ‚Äď Yen on Intervention watch.

 
daily-market-update-696x364.png

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • A¬†slip in risk appetite¬†and a solid 5-year auction gave Treasuries a little boost yesterday with yields ending modestly lower.
  • Profit taking on the strong gains for the quarter, and indeed record highs last week, and some tax loss selling weighed.
  • Wall Street ended with small losses. The¬†NASDAQ¬†fell -0.42%, with the¬†S&P500¬†off -0.28%, while the¬†Dow¬†dipped -0.08%.
  • The¬†US consumer confidence¬†undershot assumptions and joined a Michigan sentiment down-tick to 76.5 from 76.9 in February and a 30-month high of 79.0 in January. All the surveys face headwinds from¬†high mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and recession fears.
  • The US durables report slightly beat estimates¬†thanks to a restrained 3.3%.
  • Data showed that industrial profits in China jumped 10.2%¬†in the first 2 months of the year, but signs of an ongoing recovery means there is a lower chance of further stimulus. China officials also seem to have tightened their grip on the currency once again.
  • Japan officials¬†have also engaged in some verbal intervention over the past week, but that didn‚Äôt prevent the Yen from hitting a 34 year low against the Dollar.
  • Italy sold about 12.5%¬†of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA for about ‚ā¨650 million ($704 million) as part of Giorgia Meloni‚Äôs government plan to divest from the bailed-out lender.
     
    Copy-of-TELEGRAM-18.png
Market Trends:
 
  • Today,¬†European stock¬†futures are lower ahead of the ESI economic confidence reading and the 4-day Easter holiday weekend.
  • US futures are in demand¬†after a mixed close across Asia.
  • The China bourses underperformed, Hang Seng & CSI 300 are down -1.4% and -1.2% respectively.
  • Bond yields are slightly lower,¬†with the 10-year Treasury rate down -0.6 bp at 4.23%, and the 10-year JGB rate down -1.5 bp.
  • Bunds are outperforming,¬†and the German 10-year rate has corrected -2.6 bp in early trade, as markets expect Spanish HICP numbers to confirm the downtrend in headline inflation.
Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†recovered to close slightly firmer at¬†104.10.¬†It‚Äôs a fourth straight close over¬†104.
  • The¬†Yen¬†is at 34-year low retesting once again the¬†152¬†high.
  • Gold¬†extended gains as the focus shifts to key US PCE numbers on Friday. Bullion is currently at¬†$2179¬†after breaching¬†$2200.¬†Geopolitical risk, central bank buying, bond rally and rate cut expectations solidifying, all added to the strength in gold.
  • USOIL¬†steady for a 2nd day in a row below¬†$81.00.+
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 28th March 2024.

The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To ‚ÄúHold‚ÄĚ.


usa-696x414.jpg
  • Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised ‚Äúthere is no rush to cut rates‚ÄĚ and ‚Äúthe data within the upcoming months‚ÄĚ will be vital.
  • The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today‚Äôs data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales.
  • Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow‚Äôs Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar.
  • Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price.
EURUSD

The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data.

A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid‚Äď2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments.

The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-03-28T111623.094-1024x577.png

Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data.

USA100

The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April.

The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the ‚Äúneutral‚ÄĚ level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today‚Äôs economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-03-28T111936.983-1024x577.png


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 29th March 2024.

GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long?


UK-696x364.jpg
  • The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose.
  • The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple.
  • The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen.
  • The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning‚Äôs Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon‚Äôs Core PCE Price Index.
GBPUSD ‚Äď The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long?

The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day‚Äôs open and is primary due to the Pound‚Äôs strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the ‚Äútug-of-war‚ÄĚ scenario.

The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month‚Äôs average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a ‚Äúneutral‚ÄĚ level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day‚Äôs price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon‚Äôs Core PCE Price Index.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-03-29T104833.903-1024x577.png

Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500.

Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike.

USA500 ‚Äď The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains!

The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices.

The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-03-29T105518.579-1024x577.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 1st April 2024.

Strong Chinese Economic Data Prompts Demand for US Stocks!


Bull-vs-bear-volume-696x375.jpgTrading Leveraged Products is Risky
  • The Chinese economy and sentiment improve for the first time since September 2023. Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, beating expectations. Higher Chinese data improves the global risk appetite towards stocks.
  • Stocks trade higher, what is more, the SNP500, and Dow Jones again renew their all-time highs. The latest Chinese data and a PCE Price Index in line with expectations support price growth.
  • The price of Gold and the US Dollar Index are both on the rise, which is a concern for investors. The market‚Äôs price movement gives no clear indication of investor‚Äôs risk appetite.
  • Apple is expected to confirm the Vision Pro Headset will be made available to global consumers in the summer months.
USA500 ‚Äď Inflation, Earnings and Company News!

The USA500 starts the day with a moderate bullish price gap measuring 0.21% and continues trading 0.52% higher ever since. The price of the index is now trading at an all-time high and has risen more than 10.50% in 2024. The SNP500 has also been the best performing index in 2024 and has outperformed both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones? The question for traders is, will this continue?

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-04-01T100524.111-1024x577.png

A positive factor for the USA500 is the Federal Reserve and most global central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. The main factor which investors needed to see is that central banks were able to do so without triggering a significant economic contraction, which was achieved. Another positive factor is the Core PCE Price Index did not beat expectations, which was vital considering inflation over the past 2 months kept reading higher than previously thought.

However, some risks do remain which can make the path difficult for buyers. The price of Gold as well as the price of the US Dollar continue to rise. This occurrence indicates the market’s risk appetite and sentiment is lower than priced in the stock market. Another concern is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to indeed cut interest rates in July 2024 if inflation does not decline over the next 2 months.

Investors are closely watching the price of oil which is trading 13.50% higher in 2024 and at a 6-month high. If the price of Oil continues to rise and fails to fall back below $80.00 per barrel in the next two months, inflation will be difficult to reduce. As a result, the Fed may again push back a rate cut to July or September. Otherwise, the Fed may continue with a cut in June, but will advise less than 3 cuts for the remainder of the year.

So, what can save the SNP500 and stock market if the Fed chose not to cut and if inflation rises. The answer is the quarterly earnings reports scheduled for later this month and in May. Investors will mainly be focusing their attention on the following stocks:
 
  1. Microsoft
  2. Apple
  3. NVIDIA
  4. Alphabet
  5. Amazon
  6. Meta
The stock which is a concern for investors is Apple Stocks. Apple has received a large penalty from the EU and is now facing a lawsuit from the US. Shareholders will be keen to see what the board of directors have to say regarding this and how it will affect the earnings per share. Investors will also be keen to see the performance of the Apple Vision Pro Headset which was released in February. If the sales figure reads as expected or beats expectations, the demand for the stocks can rise regardless of the upcoming fines. Apple is also expected to announce that the product will be made available to global consumers later in the summer. Apple quarterly earnings will be released on May 2nd and Microsoft on April 23rd.

USA500 ‚Äď Technical Analysis After Strong Chinese Economic Data

Over the past 3 trading days, the price of the USA500 has successfully been forming higher highs and higher lows. The price this morning saw strong momentum, which was also due to positive economic data from China. The Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations. Furthermore, technical indicators continue to indicate a higher price. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. In addition to this, delta statistics also indicate buyers are controlling the market. If the price again rises above $5,273.31, the breakout will further indicate upward price movement.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-04-01T104641.109-1024x577.png


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 2nd April 2024.

Market Recap ‚Äď Inflation: Will be back?

 
inflation_1200x628-e1569917356690-696x338.png

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • Treasuries were hit¬†by stronger than¬†expected ISM data¬†and¬†yields climbed¬†sharply in a bear steepener. ‚ÄstUS manufacturing unexpectedly expanded for the first time since September 2022 & input costs climbed.
  • The latest ISM data indicates that the US economy continues to display strength despite elevated interest rates. This bodes well for the stock market, as it has the potential to fuel profit growth for businesses. However, it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
  • Wall Street took its lumps to start Q2¬†amid the eroding Fed view and the pop in interest rates. The broader indexes closed with losses, though from fresh record highs last Thursday.
  • FED:¬†Expectations are moving toward fewer cuts this year as well, from the 3 that have been in for priced in much of 2024 to date, consistent with the FOMC‚Äôs dots,¬†to 2, 1, or even none. A couple of key Fed¬†officials, Waller¬†and¬†Bostic,¬†have indicated their preferences¬†for fewer than 3 cuts this year.¬†Now there is a 61% chance of the Fed cutting rates in June.
  • UK Nationwide house prices unexpectedly dropped -0.2% m/m¬†in March, after rising 0.7% m/m in the previous month.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-19.png



Market Trends:
 
  • The¬†Dow¬†dropped -0.6% and the¬†S&P 500¬†slid -0.2%. The¬†NASDAQ¬†managed a 0.11% rally.
  • European stock futures are slightly higher in early trade, with the FTSE 100 outperforming. The Hang Seng rallied overnight, as Hong Kong‚Äôs markets re-opened after the extended holiday weekend and investors reacted to the better than expected Chinese PMI reports.
Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†climbed back over the¬†105¬†level thanks to the strength in the data, closing at¬†105.019¬†and hitting the highest closing level since¬†mid-November.¬†Underpinning the move has been the¬†hotter inflation data and resilient growth¬†that have been shifting outlooks on the¬†FOMC‚Äôs rate cutting¬†trajectory, pushing back the timing of the first move toward July rather than June.
  • The¬†Yen¬†was steady higher at¬†151.70.¬†Focus is now fixed squarely on the BOJ‚Äôs bond-buying operation scheduled for Wednesday.
  • Gold¬†managed to hit a fresh peak at¬†$2251.44¬†per ounce and a second close over¬†$2200.
  • USOIL¬†breached 61.8% Fib. level since the September downleg, at¬†$84.14.¬†(Rising geopolitical risks in the ME & tighter supply from Mexico helping to buoy prices.)
  • Bitcoin¬†drifted back to¬†$67k¬†amid cooling demand for dedicated US ETFs and ebbing bets on looser Fed policy. ‚Äď 10% down since $73,798 highs in mid-March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 3rd April 2024.
 
Market Recap ‚Äď ‚ÄėGood News is Bad News‚Äô
 
eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg

 Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

 

  • Rate cut hopes for the US are fading, which is weighing on stock markets. Bonds have found a footing, at least outside of the US, and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.4 bp, after the 10-year JGB corrected -1.3 bp.
  • A¬†rise in February JOLTS, albeit after a downward revision to January, and a better than expected¬†factory report, exacerbated the sell off in longer dated Treasuries.
  • Disappointing delivery news from¬†Tesla,¬†along with weakness in the health and retail sectors, weighed on sentiment.
  • Rising geopolitical risks boosted¬†Gold¬†and¬†Oil.
  • Fed‚Äôs Mester(Voter) & Daly (Voter): They still see 3 cuts this year, which helped trim losses.¬†Mester stated that she will¬†not vote for a cut at the May meeting given the lack of sufficient data but said she would not rule out action in June.
  • China‚Äôs¬†manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March.¬†Yuan¬†declined despite data.
  • Today:¬†EU Inflation & Core, US ADP, US ISM Services and Fed Powell speech. OPEC ministerial meeting is also on tap and it is expected to confirm current output cut targets.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2.png

 

Market Trends:

 

  • Wall Street¬†slumped as well on JOLTS and hence the¬†Fed¬†outlook and the rise in yields with the major indexes falling over -1.0% before paring losses. The¬†Dow¬†finished with a -1.0% drop, while the¬†S&P500¬†was down -0.72% and the¬†NASDAQ¬†-0.95% lower.
  • Stocks have sold off across¬†Asia,¬†with Hang Seng and ASX underperforming and losing more than -1%.¬†US futures¬†are also in the red, while¬†European¬†futures are narrowly mixed.

Financial Markets Performance:

 

  • The¬†USDIndex¬†climbed to hit¬†105.10,¬†but it lost traction and slid to close at¬†104.52¬†with a pick up in downside momentum after the Fedspeak. Monday‚Äôs¬†105.019¬†close was the first with a¬†105¬†handle since mid-November.
  • The¬†AUD¬†&¬†NZD¬†(often used as liquid proxies for the¬†CNH),¬†are under pressure as a result of a stronger¬†USD¬†and a weaker¬†CNH.
  • Gold (+11% this year)¬†surged to a new all-time peak at¬†$2288¬†even as Fed rate cut bets were pared.¬†Silver¬†hit a 2-year high.
  • USOIL¬†was up 1.9% at¬†$85.30¬†per barrel with additional support from expectations for rising demand.
  • Bitcoin¬†at¬†$66.3K,¬†under pressure for a 3rd day in a row.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 4th April 2024.

Market News ‚Äď USD continues to decline; stock markets mixed.


commodities_1200x628-696x364.jpg
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • Powell wants to keep inflation expectations anchored at 2%. ‚Äď Recent data have not ‚Äúmaterially‚ÄĚ changed the overall picture.
  • Nothing new is added to the outlook, keeping the door open for several rate cuts this year, though Bostic continues to favor just one easing.
  • The ISM services index slowed and prices paid softened, but the ADP solidly beat.
  • JGB¬†and¬†Treasury yields¬†have moved up overnight, with the US 10-year 1.8 bp higher on the day.
  • Bunds¬†are finding buyers though, with Eurozone spreads narrowing as peripherals outperform.
  • Fed funds futures:¬†implied rates are now about 50-50 for a June cut,¬†with July showing about a 95% probability for the first cut. A 25 bp easing is not fully priced until September.
  • Swiss inflation drops to just 1.0% y/y.¬†Expectations had been for a slight uptick in the headline and the lower than expected number will justify the SNB‚Äôs decision to cut rates at the previous meeting, especially as the growth outlook remains subdued.
  • The¬†ECB asserts it won‚Äôt rely¬†on the Federal Reserve‚Äôs actions to determine when to start reducing interest rates. However, economic trends in the¬†US often swiftly affect other regions,¬†impacting financing conditions, exchange rates, and various metrics such as inflation and trade.
Long Shadow of the Fed Shows Limits of ECB Talk of Independence
Long Shadow of the Fed Shows Limits of ECB Talk of Independence
Market Trends:
 
  • Wall Street¬†closed with a 0.23% advance in the¬†NASDAQ,¬†a 0.11% gain on the¬†S&P500, and a -0.11% dip on the¬†Dow.
  • Stock markets traded mixed across Asia. Nikkei and ASX benefited while China bourses corrected though and the Hang Seng underperformed once again.
  • European¬†bourses are slightly in the red,¬†US futures¬†are higher, as markets continue to evaluate rate outlooks and growth prospects against the background of geopolitical risks.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-20.png

Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†is below¬†104,¬†in the wake of Powell‚Äôs comments along with the stronger than projected ADP which weighed on the markets, and Bostic‚Äôs comments.
  • The¬†Yen¬†continues to consolidate as investors awaited cues from the BOJ. BOJ board member Sakurai said that the central bank is likely to wait until around October before mulling another interest rate hike.
  • Gold¬†remained stable after reaching a new all-time high, surpassing¬†$2,300¬†per ounce.¬†This surge was supported mainly by Powell.
  • USOIL¬†appeared ready for its 5th consecutive day of increases.
  • Copper¬†rose to its highest level since January 2023, driven by increasing supply risks and indications of heightened demand
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 5th April 2024.

Market News ‚Äď NFP day; Geopolitics triggering a flight to safety!

 
risk-696x364.png

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • Global Stocks fell ahead of today‚Äôs jobs report, which coupled with the rising geopolitical risks¬†and the angst over the FOMC‚Äôs rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand.
  • Treasuries¬†climbed, the¬†US Dollar¬†ended near session highs and¬†Oil¬†rallied.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin¬†Netanyahu¬†said at a security cabinet meeting his country will operate against Iran and its proxies and will hurt those who seek to harm it. President Joe Biden told Netanyahu on a call that US support for his war would depend on new steps to protect civilians.
  • Note: A direct conflict between Israel & Iran could restrict further Oil supply and hence could boost Oil above $100.
  • Japan: BOJ Governor Ueda¬†stoked bets about an additional interest rate hike later in the year, if the yen‚Äôs weakness affected the economy.¬†FM Shunichi Suzuki¬†repeated warnings that the government would take appropriate measures to support the currency. Meanwhile,¬†former top currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe¬†said earlier this week that the government likely won‚Äôt make a move¬†unless the Yen plunges below 155 per dollar.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-21.png


Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†has rallied into the close from the session low of¬†103.92,¬†finishing back at¬†104.12.¬†But it was over¬†105¬†on Monday, the highest since November.
  • The¬†Yen¬†extended a rally to hit a 2-week high. The currency experienced its most significant surge against the USD in nearly a month, prompting a retreat from levels that traders had anticipated might trigger intervention.
  • Gold:¬†The rising concerns over the situation in the Middle East have boosted haven demand for gold which climbed to another record peak over¬†$2304¬†per ounce.
  • USOIL¬†jumped to¬†$86.70 and UKOIL¬†rose above¬†$91¬†near its highest since October. Israel has increased preparations for potential retaliation by Tehran after Monday‚Äôs strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria, stoking fears of a wider regional conflict. OPEC kept global markets tight.
  • Copper¬†holds at 14-month highs.
Market Trends:
 
  • Wall Street¬†had a tough session and closed with steep losses of over -1%. The recent record peak on stocks have left the market ripe for profit taking too ahead of jobs.
  • The¬†NASDAQ¬†dropped -1.4% and the¬†Dow¬†tumbled -1.36% with the¬†S&P500¬†slumping -1.23%. Every¬†S&P sector closed with a loss, with only energy preventing a complete rout in the Dow.
  • Nikkei¬†drifted more than 2% putting it on course for its worst week since December 2022 as tech shares slid on Wall Street‚Äôs lead. ‚Äď The biggest driver for the Nikkei‚Äôs dip is technical.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 8th April 2024.

Treasury Yields Climb and Investors Anxiously Await March’s Inflation Reading!

 
bull-bear-696x364.jpg
 
  • Economists expect inflation to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%, but the monthly incline to be lower than the previous month.
  • The Dow Jones sees its worst week of 2024, but stocks rebound on positive employment data.
  • The US economy added a further 303,000 more employed individuals and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.
  • The US Dollar witnesses ‚Äúmixed‚ÄĚ price movement as investors wait for inflation confirmation and clarity on interest rates.
USA500 ‚Äď Bond Yields Rise 50 Points Potentially Pressuring US Stocks!

The SNP500 is the index which is likely to be most influenced by this week‚Äôs earnings data. This is due to the index‚Äôs exposure to banking stocks. The price of the USA500 is technically still forming lower lows and lower highs which indicates a downward trend. However, corrective waves remain strong which indicate demand remains. Currently, the price is trading below momentum indications and below the ‚Äúneutral‚ÄĚ on oscillators. Therefore, the price is currently witnessing a weak ‚Äúsell‚ÄĚ signal. However, if the price drops below $5,197.16, indicators are likely to signal a stronger bearish signal.
 
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-04-08T090700.160-1024x577.png


To obtain further indication of the possible future price movement, investors will also be monitoring the global investor sentiment. Asian stocks are currently trading slightly lower, but the European Cash Open is yet to take place. If both Asian and European stocks decline, this could potentially back a low-risk appetite, which is negative for the USA500.

The employment data on Friday, reassured investors that the US economy remains strong and resilient to the current monetary policy. The NFP data read 43% higher than market expectations and average salaries rose more than the previous month. On the one hand, the data is positive as it indicates demand will remain high as will company earnings. However, on the other hand, if inflation also rises, the Fed will be unlikely to adjust interest rates.

Therefore, Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index will be key. If inflation reads higher than 3.4%, the stock market can come under immense pressure as the Fed are likely to become more hawkish. This is something which can already be seen from today’s rise in bond yields. The US 10-Year Treasury yields added 0.050% which is known to apply pressure to the stock market. If inflation reads in line with expectations, the release will be neutral. Furthermore, analysts expect the Core Inflation rate to fall from 3.8% to 3.7%.

EURUSD ‚Äď ECB To Indicate Next Cut!

The Euro is witnessing ‚Äúmixed‚ÄĚ price movement depending on the currency pair. Against the US Dollar the exchange rate is moving sideways, and the key price can be seen at 1.08426. Both the Euro and the US Dollar are likely to witness volatility throughout the week. The Euro due to the European Central Bank‚Äôs rate decision and press conference. The US Dollar due to Consumer and Producer Inflation.

Some economists believe the ECB may deem it too early to cut interest rates, but the general opinion is that the time to cut is very near for the ECB. Therefore, investors will closely be monitoring the President’s comments in the press conference on Thursday. The EU’s inflation rate has fallen to 2.4% and is the lowest amongst the G7. In addition to this, many EU economies have been witnessing prolonged stagnation and therefore will be keen to stimulate economic growth. The US Dollar on the other hand will primarily be determined by the CPI and PPI (producer inflation).
 
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-04-08T090812.790-1024x577.png


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Posted (edited)
Date: 9th April 2024.

Gold Renews Its All-Time Highs, But Oscillators Point to Caution!


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  • US indices underperform compared to global stocks as investors await the latest US inflation data.
  • Oil is trading almost 22% higher in 2024 applying upward pressure on inflation and triggering a more cautious approach to tomorrow‚Äôs Consumer Price Index.
  • The US Dollar declines and Gold rises in value despite the possibility of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
  • The head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Dallas, Mrs Logan, advises it‚Äôs too early to think about lowering interest rates since the danger of inflation stabilizing above the target level remains.
XAUUSD ‚Äď Buyers Maintain Control but Oscillators Point To The Assets Being Overpriced

The price of Gold trades steadily higher during this morning’s Asian session and is attempting to break yesterday’s all-time high. Gold has risen more than 15% since February 2024 as investors look at an alternative hedge against inflation. In addition to this, many countries including China and India look to lower exposure to the Dollar ahead of US elections. However, investors should note that if US inflation reads higher than expectation, demand for the Dollar may return.

Investors also should note that the inverse correlation between Gold and the US Dollar is slightly weaker than traditionally seen. Therefore, even with a more expensive Dollar, the price of Gold may simply retrace or correct, but retain the longer-term gains. According to Friday‚Äôs report from the US Commodity Futures Commission, the number of speculative positions for ‚Äúsellers‚ÄĚ remains weak. The latest report confirmed that only 0.719k more contracts were added for sellers and more than 21.200k added for buyers.

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Technical analysis for Gold is two sided. Momentum-based indicators point towards an upward price movement as does price action. However, oscillators indicate the asset may be trading above its intrinsic value and may correct. A short-term correction may decline between 2,292.29 and 2,318.78. For another bullish impulse wave, technical analysts point at a target of 2,376 based on Fibonacci levels and the size of previous impulse waves.

EURUSD ‚Äď ECB Rate Cut Upcoming According to Analysts

The Euro is gaining momentum since the start of the European Trading session. However, the price is trading slightly lower than the day’s open price. In addition to this, in the short-term the price is forming lower lows and lower highs. When monitoring each currency individually, the US Dollar is trading slightly higher while the Euro is unchanged.

No major economic data has been released in the past 24 hours or is due today. However, volatility is likely to significantly rise from tomorrow onwards. If US consumer inflation reads 3.5% or more, the price of the Dollar is likely to gain. If the monthly producer inflation on Thursday also reads higher than 0.3%, this will further fuel a potential bearish impulse wave.

However, another key factor will be the European Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Forward Guidance. If the ECB suddenly become more dovish, as analysts believe, the Euro may again struggle to hold onto its value, if the Fed are unlikely to adjust. Currently there is more pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates considering inflation has returned to normal levels amongst most state members and most countries are witnessing stagnation. Analysts currently expect the European regulator to be the first to cut interest rates and believe this will take place in June.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-04-09T104724.995-1-1024x577.png


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Edited by HFM
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Date: 10th April 2024.

The Fed Is Willing To Lower Expectations To Only 1 Cut In 2024!

 
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  • European defence stocks tumble and see the largest decline in 18 months as Goldman Sachs analyst warns the category is trading above its true value.
  • US Treasuries Yields and the US Dollar Index remain unchanged as investors hold their breath ahead of today‚Äôs inflation release.
  • Analysts expect US inflation to increase from 3.2% to 3.4%, but for Core inflation to decline to 3.7%.
  • Federal Reserve President of the Atlanta bank, Mr Bostic, advises he is willing to adjust the outlook to only 1 rate cut in 2024. Keep reading to find out why and what the requirements will be.
GER40‚Äď Defence Stocks Overvalued According to Goldman Sachs

The DAX as well as general European Indices came under pressure from comments from a market respected analyst. According to the Goldman Sachs Analyst, Victor Allard, shares in European defensive stocks were trading above their true value and have little potential for further gains. As a result, stocks such as Rheinmetall AG, BAE Systems and Saab AB witnessed sharp declines. Saab AB stocks fell almost 10% within a single session.

However, the sentiment towards European stocks were dampened as a result of this. The main reason for Mr Allard’s view is the stock ratios do not back the growth. A good example of this is the price to earnings which is extremely high. Furthermore, Allard pointed out that defence stocks trade now at nearly 20 times forward earnings.

When monitoring the top 7 stocks which hold the highest weight within the index, the market can see a clear sign of profit taking. Five of these stocks have risen more than 10% in 2024 so far, which is higher than traditional gains, but over the past five days a large portion of that has been lost. The only stock which has seen strong gains and has maintained its momentum is Mercedes Benz which has risen almost 22% in 2024 so far. The most important stocks for the index during this earnings data will remain SAP SE, Siemens AG and Allianz.
 
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The price of the index will now largely depend on tomorrow’s European Central Bank press conference and statement. Investors are keen to see when the ECB and Federal Reserve are likely to cut interest rates. If the regulator takes a more dovish approach, the economy is likely to witness much needed stimulation and investor sentiment towards the region is likely to rise. In addition to this, the Euro can potentially make indices cheaper to buy. As a result, this can support the DAX as well as other European indices. In the meanwhile, this afternoon’s US inflation data will be the key price driver for all assets.

USA100 ‚Äď Price Performance Dependent on Fed Rate Adjustments and Today‚Äôs CPI!

The performance of the USA100 will primarily be dependent on this afternoon’s inflation data. However, technical analysts have been keen to point out that the US stocks have been unwilling to form strong longer-term declines. Nonetheless, higher inflation potentially can trigger a lower risk appetite and lower demand for equities. Particularly investors will be looking to see if inflation reads higher than the 0.3% expectations, including the Core CPI.

Later within the evening, investors will also be closely monitoring the FOMC Meeting Minutes for clues as to where the committee stand on possible interest rate cuts. This week Mr Bostic has already advised he would be willing to lower expectations for future cuts if inflation does not allow the Fed to act. According to Mr Bostic, he could consider lowering possible future adjustments from 3 cuts to only 1 for 2024. However, Mr Bostic said this was only possible if inflation stabilized above the target and the employment sector remains resilient. So far, jobs growth remains and it’s all dependent on inflation.
 
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-04-10T095403.266-1024x577.png


Technical analysis for the USA100 is signalling neither a sell or buy. The price is trading slightly higher than the 75-Bar EMA and at the 55.00 mark on the RSI. However, the price is forming a horizontal price range this morning. Therefore, for a buy signal to be confirmed, the price will need to form a bullish breakout and ideally inflation will not beat expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 12th April 2024.

Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?

 
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  • Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%.
  • The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle.
  • This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours.
  • The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB‚Äôs attempt to establish a hawkish tone.
USA100 ‚Äď The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable?

The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market.

The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.
 
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Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured.

25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%.

Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves.

EURUSD ‚Äď The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies

The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises ‚Äúsales figures‚ÄĚ remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low.

Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year.

Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.
 
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-04-12T104730.414-1024x577.png



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 15th April 2024.

Market News ‚Äď Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally.


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Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East.¬†Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a¬†haven bid,¬†into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict.
  • However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets¬†were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said ‚Äúthe matter can be deemed concluded‚ÄĚ, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran‚Äôs drone and missile strike, as part of Washington‚Äôs efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict.
  • New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of¬†Russian¬†supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday.¬†Aluminum¬†jumped¬†9.4%, nickel¬†rose¬†8.8%,¬†suggesting brokers are bracing for¬†major supply chain disruption.
X-UPDATE-1.png

Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†USDIndex¬†fell back from highs over 106 to currently¬†105.70.
  • The¬†Yen¬†dip against USD to¬†153.85.
  • USOIL¬†settled lower at¬†84.50¬†per barrel and¬†Gold¬†is trading below session highs at currently¬†$2357.92¬†per ounce.
  • Copper,¬†more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at¬†$4.3180.
    d86b3b8c9fa1a15147f6e31cb2e433f9
Market Trends:
 
  • Asian¬†stock markets traded mixed, but¬†European¬†and¬†US futures¬†are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up.
  • Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The¬†PBOC¬†meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system.
  • Nikkei¬†slipped 1% to 39,114.19.
  • On Friday,¬†NASDAQ¬†slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday‚Äôs 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The¬†S&P500¬†fell -1.46% and the¬†Dow¬†dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all¬†11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red.
  • JPMorgan Chase¬†sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation‚Äôs largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street‚Äôs estimate, calling for only modest growth.
  • Apple¬†shipments drop by 10% in Q1.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 16th April 2024.

Market News ‚Äď Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up.


1270d0ed70cd13ba2457d1ea00d2cd03-696x392.webp
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows.
  • Treasuries yields¬†spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected¬†retail sales¬†eliciting a broad sell off in the markets.
  • Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a¬†50-50 chance.
  • Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week‚Äôs declines amid the rise in yields.
  • Investor concerns were intensified as¬†Israel threatened retaliation.
  • There‚Äôs growing anxiety over earnings even after a¬†big beat from Goldman Sachs.
  • UK labor market data¬†was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated ‚Äď The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE.
  • China¬†grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts¬†over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon.
  • Today:¬†Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook.
  • Earnings releases:¬†Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.
Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • The¬†US Dollar¬†rallied to¬†106.19¬†after testing¬†106.25,¬†gaining against¬†JPY¬†and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level.
  • Gold¬†surged 1.76% to¬†$2386¬†per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed.
  • USOIL¬†is flat at¬†$85¬†per barrel.
  • 68b0e32796a335024b9802981dbe7f6d.png
Market Trends:
 
  • Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off.¬†Tech was the big loser with the¬†NASDAQ¬†plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the¬†S&P500¬†dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the¬†Dow¬†sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The¬†S&P¬†had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023.
  • Nikkei¬†and¬†ASX¬†lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the¬†Hang Seng¬†is down -2.1%.
  • European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red.
  • CTA selling tsunami: ‚ÄúJust a few points lower¬†CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size,¬†to add insult to injury, we are¬†breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.‚ÄĚ Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date: 17th April 2024.

Market News ‚Äď Appetite for risk-taking remains weak.


currencies_1200x628-696x364.png
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 
  • Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed.
  • Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off.¬†His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady ‚Äúfor as long as needed.‚ÄĚ
  • Implied Fed Fund:¬†There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024.
  • US & EU Economies Diverging:¬†Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts¬†‚Äď if there are no major shocks.
  • UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected.¬†Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday‚Äôs higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the¬†BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts.
  • Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5.
  • IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024¬†with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a¬†global soft landing,¬†according to the report.
X-UPDATE-2.png

Financial Markets Performance:
 
  • USDJPY¬†also inched up to¬†154.67¬†on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived¬†155¬†red line for MoF intervention.
  • USOIL¬†prices slipped -0.15% to¬†$84.20¬†per barrel.
  • Gold¬†rose 0.24% to¬†$2389.11¬†per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar.
Market Trends:
 
  • Wall Street¬†waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the¬†Dow¬†up 0.17%, while the¬†S&P500¬†and¬†NASDAQ¬†lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively.
  • Asian stock markets mostly corrected again,¬†with Japanese bourses underperforming and the¬†Nikkei¬†down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the¬†CSI 300¬†rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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