official Market Update by Solidecn.com

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AUDUSD - Australian labor market continues to recover

The overall unemployment rate in Australia remained at 3.4%, while employment increased by 64.0K jobs after rising by 43.1K a month earlier, and total employment reached 13.752M people. Seasonally adjusted, the share of the economically active population increased to 66.8% from 66.5% a month earlier, and the ratio of employed to the country's total population increased to 64.5%. The unemployed increased by only 200 people, while the youth unemployment rate fell to 7.7%.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving in an ascending channel and, after reaching the resistance line, is preparing to break it. Technical indicators maintain a strengthening buy signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.7068 | Support levels: 0.6745, 0.6586
 

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USDCAD - Growth within the local ascending corridor

The quotations were practically not affected by the report of Statistics Canada: in October, the volume of production grew by 2.8% to 72.6B Canadian dollars, and the oil industry (12.7%) and the food industry (2.9%) stand out among the leaders of the sector and the chemical industry (4.9%), while in the automotive industry (–3.2%) and mechanical engineering (–1.7%), a negative trend is observed. According to experts, growth in these sectors should not be expected soon, as there is a serious shortage of materials and microchips, which also reduced production and decreased exports of cars and spare parts by 1.8%.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument moves within the local ascending corridor. Technical indicators signal further growth.

Resistance levels: 1.37, 1.39 | Support levels: 1.354, 1.338
 

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EURUSD under the negative pressure

The EURUSD pair traded negatively in the previous sessions to break the bullish channel’s support line and settles below it, but we notice that the EMA50 forms good support to protect the price from suffering more losses, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic, which supports the chances of regaining the bullish trend again. Therefore, we believe that the chances valid to trade positively today, and the targets begin by surpassing 1.0650 to ease the mission of heading towards 1.0745, noting that breaking 1.0580 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to test 1.0515 direct.

 

 

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0540 support and 1.0710 resistance.

 

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BTCUSD = US Federal Reserve decisions continue to put pressure on the position of "digital gold"

Monetary factors are still the main drivers of the quotes movement. The initial positive dynamics were associated with the release of November statistics on US inflation, which recorded a slowdown in consumer price growth in the country for the second month in a row and strengthened investors' hopes that the US Federal Reserve would soften its "hawkish" rhetoric. Still, the results of the regulator's meeting on Wednesday disappointed the market. Officials expectedly adjusted the rate of the interest rate hike from 75.0 bps to 50.0 bps to 4.50% but said that the problem of high inflation has not yet been resolved, and monetary tightening should be continued. At the same time, experts in the department predicted a decrease in the indicator no earlier than 2024. Similar statements were made by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, putting even more pressure on digital assets.

The trading instrument is at 16750 and may continue to decline around the November lows at 15700, 15000 (Murrey [4/8]). The key "bullish" seems to be the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If it is broken, quotes may rise to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 20000 (Murrey [8] /8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%).

Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 15700, 15000, 13750
 

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair shows calm positive trades to test the EMA50, waiting for more rise to surpass 1.2235 followed by rallying towards our positive targets that start at 1.2330 followed by 1.2445, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave requires holding above 1.2135.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2100 support and 1.2280 resistance.
 

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ETHUSD - Technical analysis

 

Since the end of last month, the quotes have been moving in the main sideways range of 1325.00–1090.00. The cryptocurrency market is uncertain, as fears of further negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange are holding back the start of corrective growth. However, in the short term, it will become possible if the consolidation above 1250.00 (Murrey level [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) to the levels 1325.00 or 1500.00 (Murrey level [4/8], the upper limit of the long-term downward channel). The key "bearish" level is 1090.00, consolidation below, which will give the prospect of further decline to 1000.00 (Murrey level [0/8]), 875.00 (Murrey level [–1/8]).

 

 

Resistance levels: 1250, 1325, 1500 | Support levels: 1090, 1000, 875

 

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EURUSD - Low gas price in the EU supports the euro

Thus, according to data from the TTF exchange, the price for gas contracts with delivery in February is now 1120.0 dollars per 1.0K cubic meters, which was last observed in June, when the Nord Stream gas pipeline maintained maximum pumping levels. The current low quotations provide an opportunity for countries in the region to conclude long-term deals for supplies in the spring, as the storage facilities are almost full now. Meanwhile, in November, the German producer price index lost 3.9%, which led to a slowdown in growth to 28.2% YoY from 34.5% earlier.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues its corrective growth and confidently holds in the local ascending corridor. Technical indicators point to continued growth.

Resistance levels: 1.0675, 1.09 | Support levels: 1.0525, 1.032
 

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USDJPY - Rhetoric of representatives of the Bank of Japan is a catalyst for the growth of the yen

Quotes of USD/JPY are correcting at 132.21. The yen added 4.2% in yesterday's trading, reacting to the results of the Bank of Japan meeting, at which the interest rate was kept at the same level of -0.10%, but the policy of controlling the yield curve of 10-year government bonds was adjusted: previously it was allowed to deviate by 25 basis points either way from the target level of 0.00%, and now changes by 50 basis points become possible.

In addition, the regulator announced a significant increase in the volume of purchases of government bonds in unlimited volumes, expanding the range of purchased instruments: in addition to traditional 10-year bonds, the Bank of Japan now intends to buy assets with more global maturities. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he sees the move as an opportunity to stave off the negative effects on the economy from high inflation caused by higher import prices due to the depreciation of the yen. Thus, the Bank of Japan expects that after the appreciation of the national currency, the inflationary impact will begin to decrease.

On the daily chart of the asset, the USDJPY pair is trading in a local downtrend, reaching the support line near the low of August 2. Technical indicators still hold the sell signal, which has recently intensified.

Support levels: 131.5, 127.2 | Resistance levels: 133.5, 137
 

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EURUSD breaches the minor resistance

The EURUSD pair begins today with new positivity to breach the resistance that appears on the chart and attempts to hold above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, opening the way to head towards our waited target at 1.0745. The EMA50 and stochastic provide positive signals that support the expected rise, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.0580.

 

 

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0570 support and 1.0745 resistance.

 

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NZDUSD Faces Solid Support

The NZDUSD pair touched 0.6275 level and found solid support there, to show some bullish bias and retest the broken neckline of the head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart, waiting to resume the negative trades to break the mentioned level and head towards 0.6130 as a next target. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.6385 and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6250 support and 0.6365 resistance
 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair tests 1.2135 level and still below it, and the contradiction between the technical indicators still valid, to continue with our neutrality until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly.

 

 

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2050 support and 1.2230 resistance.

 

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Crude Oil - Oil reserves in the USA have sharply decreased again

According to October statistics, the USA holds the lead with 11.971M barrels of oil, Saudi Arabia is in second place with 10.957M barrels, and Russia is in third place, which has significantly reduced production levels, which amounted to 10.66M barrels and is still higher than the 10.599M barrels recorded in August. During the period from January to October, energy production in the Russian Federation managed to increase by 2.4% from last year's figure to 443.2M barrels.

At the same time, oil reserves in the US strategic reserve continue to decline rapidly: last week the indicator adjusted by -3.6M barrels, amounting to 378.6M barrels, which is the lowest value since 1983. In addition, the US Department of Energy announced that in order to replenish the volumes put on the market, the purchase of energy will begin, and the first batch of 3.0M barrels will be delivered in February 2023.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading within a descending corridor, being in the middle of the range. Technical indicators hold the sell signal, which has weakened somewhat recently

Support levels: 81.20, 75.80 | Resistance levels: 84.6, 89.4
 

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USDTRY - CBRT Leaves Rates Unchanged

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced its final rate decision of 2022 today at 11:00 am GMT. Market expected the main one-week repo rate to be left unchanged at 9.00%. Those expectations were met with the Bank leaving interest rates unchanged. This comes after 4 straight rate cuts at previous meetings. CBRT sees current rate levels as adequate.

As such decision was expected, market reaction was minor. EURTRY moved lower in a knee-jerk move but has recovered initial losses and now trades a touch above pre-decision levels.

 

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair faced negative pressure yesterday to attack 1.0580 level but it keeps its stability above it, and begins today with new bullish bias motivated by stochastic positivity, waiting to head towards our main expected target at 1.0745. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain active as long as 1.0580 level remains intact.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0550 support and 1.0710 resistance.
 

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AUDUSD - US economy grew by 3.2% in the third quarter

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of a meeting on monetary policy, in which the head of the department, Philip Lowe, explained why the interest rate was raised not by 50.0 basis points but by 25.0 basis points. Officials looked at two priorities, cost control and household resilience, and concluded that despite high inflation, increasing the rate by 50.0 basis points was inappropriate as it would create additional credit pressure on households.

The key event last night was the data on US gross domestic product (GDP): Q3 figure rose by 3.2% after rising by 2.9% earlier. The upward trend was supported by a stable volume of business investment and an increase in consumer spending due to funds accumulated during the coronavirus epidemic. Against this background, the national currency regained some lost positions and consolidated above 104.000 in the USD Index. Also, statistics on initial jobless claims were released: the value, as predicted, was worse than the previous one, showing 216.0K claims against 214.0K a week earlier.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving below the support line of the local rising channel. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and give a signal to start selling. 

Resistance levels: 0.675, 0.688 | Support levels: 0.66, 0.643
 

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Gold Breaks the Support

Gold price traded with strong negativity yesterday to break the bullish channel’s support line and head towards potential visit to 1776.25 level, making the bearish bias suggested for today, supported by moving below the EMA50. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaching 1800 will stop the negative pressure and lead the price to recover again, taking into consideration that the markets might witness mixed trades due to the general weak volumes, caused by the holidays season.

The expected trading range for today is between 1775 support and 1810 resistance.
 

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DAX 40 - German stock market shows neutrality

The German stock market slowed down amid a positive report from the GfK Group, according to which German Consumer Sentiment continues to improve: the forecast for January 2023 suggests an increase in the index to -37.8 points from -40.1 points. Thus, the indicator shows growth for the third month in a row, which can serve as a positive signal and is a direct consequence of the effectiveness of the measures taken by the German government to support households in the face of high energy prices.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading well above the descending channel resistance line, continuing to reverse to the downside. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued a new sell signal.

Support levels: 13800, 13400 | Resistance levels: 14100, 14600
 

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USDTRY - Turkish authorities intend to prevent currency fluctuations in the last week of the year

 

Last week, the main financial regulator of the Republic of Turkey sent out notices to commercial banks asking them to refrain from buying large amounts of US currency for their corporate clients so as not to provoke an increase in the USDTRY pair before the new year. Since the beginning of autumn, the agency has already artificially limited foreign exchange operations several times, focusing on the priorities set by the country's leadership, which believes that only loose monetary policy can lead to economic growth and record inflation is only a temporary problem that will be resolved along with the macroeconomic recovery indicators.

 

Meanwhile, Turkey is still pursuing its attempts to take a central place in the energy agenda of the Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea, and the Middle East and reduce its dependence on the supply of resources from outside. Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of a new gas field in the Black Sea, whose reserves are estimated at 58.0B cubic meters, and the total cost is 1.0T dollars. The total gas volume in Turkish territorial waters has risen to 710.0B cubic meters.

 

 

On the four-hour chart, the quotes of the USDTRY pair are moving within the next wave of the global side corridor. Technical indicators continue to hold a stable buy signal.

 

Support levels: 18.68, 18.62 | Resistance levels: 18.74, 18.785

 

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EURUSD keeps its positive stability

The EURUSD pair fluctuates within sideways trades since yesterday, keeping its stability above 1.0580 level, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, supported by stochastic move at the oversold areas, waiting to visit 1.0745 as a main target.

 

 

We remind you that breaking 1.0580 will press on the price to test the most important support at 1.0515 before any new positive attempt. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0560 support and 1.0710 resistance.

 

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CAC 40 - Bond growth is the main factor in the correction of index quotes

Thus, the popular 10-year notes are traded at a rate of 3.046%, which exceeds the October year's high of 2.998%, while the conservative 20-year notes are traded at 3.317% while yielding the peak value of 3.420%. The global 30-year bonds' yield is at 3.219% compared to 3.290% in October. Although the values have not yet reached highs, the situation in the global economy and the gradual approach of a recession will most likely support their positions further, provoking a decrease in investment demand for high-risk shares of companies.

In the meantime, the country's economy remains under pressure due to mass actions of civil servants demanding higher wages: despite an agreement between the authorities and the leadership of the French National Railway, 40% to 50% of high-speed trains were canceled on Christmas Day, and medical workers institutions intend to hold demonstrations until January 2, demanding a 50% increase in the cost of admission.

On the daily chart, CAC 40 quotes continue to trade within the global Expanding formation pattern and are currently developing a new wave of decline. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued a new sell signal.

Support levels: 6370, 6170 | Resistance levels: 6580, 6810