USD/TRY could surpass the 5.00 handle in the long run

[Naumnic]

According to Analysts at Danske Bank, the Turkish Lira faces prospects of further depreciation in the longer run, taking the pair beyond the psychological 5.00 handle in a 12-month view.

Key Quotes

The Turkish lira has entered another perfect storm, as shaky macro fundamentals are eroded by the high oil price, weak emerging market sentiment and the returning personal grip of President Recep Erdoğan on the economic processes, TRY and monetary policy.

The markets continue to dislike this kind of interference, now pricing extremely high TRY hedging. We expect the TRY sell-off to calm down, if the President announces a fiscal austerity programme and signals more central bank independency.

We expect the tl to usd to slide down slightly from the current levels in the near term, updating the forecast as following: 4.70 in 1M (previously 4.40), 4.80 in 3M (previously 4.45), 4.90 in 6M (previously 4.35) and 5.10 in 12M (previously 4.50).