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Skechers' $9B, Indexes Sink, Asia Surges: A Day of Change Markets Take Pause After Record Rally The S&P 500 Index slipped Monday, ending its most impressive run of gains in two decades. Investors are taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting later this week. Optimism has been dampened by President Donald Trump's surprise remarks about upcoming tariffs. Nine Steps Up, One Step Back The first warning signs were on April 2, when the Trump administration announced its first round of tariff measures. At that time, the S&P 500 index lost almost 15% in a short period. However, the markets soon recovered their losses: the index demonstrated steady growth for nine trading days in a row, reaching its best dynamics since 2004. Monday's decline was the first break in this growth. A wave of correction covered all three key indexes On Monday, the main Wall Street indexes ended trading lower, reflecting investor nervousness amid the White House tariff announcements and news from major corporations. The Dow's nine-day rally was interrupted, and the tech sector came under pressure again. Trading day results: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 98.60 points (-0.24%) and closed at 41,218.83, ending its longest positive streak since December 2023; The S&P 500 lost 36.29 points (-0.64%) and stopped at 5,650.38; The Nasdaq Composite fell by 133.49 points (-0.74%) to 17,844.24. Hollywood is nervous After President Trump's announcement of possible 100% tariffs on foreign films, shares of companies associated with the production and distribution of content went into the red. However, by the close of trading, some of them were able to partially recoup their morning losses. Netflix fell by 1.9%, which interrupted its 11-day rise; Amazon.com also fell 1.9%, continuing to weigh on Big Tech; Paramount Global lost 1.6%, reacting to the threat of media import restrictions. Buffett steps down Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares fell 5.1% after Warren Buffett, a symbol of resilience and long-term growth in the market, announced his intention to step down as CEO. The departure of the "Oracle of Omaha" was a significant moment, raising concerns among investors about the future of the company. All eyes on the Fed Market participants are focused on Wednesday, when the US Federal Reserve will publish its latest policy statement. According to analysts, the benchmark interest rate is likely to remain unchanged. But more importantly, what will Fed Chairman Jerome Powell say. His rhetoric will be closely analyzed for hints of a possible reversal in monetary policy. The regulator is expected to ease the rate by 75 basis points by 2025, with the first cut possible as early as July, according to LSEG, a platform that analyzes investor expectations. Tariffs and Profits: Balance Sheet at Risk As investors wait to hear from the Fed, they are increasingly worried about the potential impact of US tariff policy. Fresh earnings reports have come as a direct blow: Tyson Foods shares have fallen 7.7% after the meat producer missed revenue forecasts. Experts say that new trade barriers could hamper international supply and put pressure on profitability, especially in sectors with high export dependence. Deal of the Day: Skechers Surprises Wall Street Unlike the food industry, the retail market has pleased investors. Skechers has become a real sensation of the day: the company's shares have soared by 24.3% after the announcement of the buyout of the brand by private equity firm 3G Capital. The deal is valued at $9.4 billion and has already earned the status of one of the largest M&A deals in the consumer sector this year. Volatility without drama Global stock markets demonstrated restrained dynamics on Tuesday. Indices fluctuated in a narrow corridor, and investors continued to digest the risks associated with US trade measures and the potential impact on global growth. Against this backdrop, the dollar began to recover recent losses, especially against the currencies of the Asian region. Hong Kong sounds the alarm The activity was especially noticeable on Tuesday in Hong Kong, where the currency regulator was forced to intervene. To protect the established currency corridor and prevent excessive strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar, the central bank spent $7.8 billion. This was the largest intervention in recent months. Yuan and Taiwan dollar are among the leaders of growth In mainland China, the yuan rose to 7.23 per dollar, reaching a maximum in almost two months - since March 20. The Taiwan dollar was even more explosive, settling at 30 per dollar on Tuesday morning, not far from a three-year peak of 29.59 set the previous day. The currency has gained an impressive 8% in two days. Asian Stocks Lose Momentum Despite the currency action, stock markets in the region were muted. MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) slipped 0.2%, with Japanese bourses closed for a national holiday. Taiwan's TWII index also fell 0.3%, reflecting a stronger local currency that could weigh on export competitiveness; In China, where trading resumed after the holiday, the CSI300 index opened slightly higher, reflecting cautious optimism; Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.2%, weighed down by currency interventions and growing uncertainty. A ghost of a chance for dialogue Amid all this turbulence, investors have a glimmer of hope for de-escalation: China is reportedly considering negotiations with the United States on tariffs. Washington has submitted a proposal, and Beijing is currently reviewing the terms of the dialogue, according to official sources. The news has become a focal point for markets that could shift the balance of power in the coming weeks. Oil levels off after a slump Oil prices showed signs of stabilization on Tuesday after a sharp plunge the previous day, when prices hit their lowest levels in four years. The main factor was the OPEC+ initiative to accelerate production increases, a move that has worried traders and analysts worried about a supply glut amid unstable demand. While there were no sharp moves, the market remains jittery as investors continue to monitor the balance between supply and global economic risks, including the potential impact of a tariff war and a slowdown in industrial production. Investors seek safety in gold Amid market uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, gold has once again become a magnet for investors. The precious metal hit a weekly peak on Tuesday, reflecting increased demand for safe haven assets. The increased interest in gold is due not only to volatility in commodity markets, but also to expectations about the Fed's future actions and a global economic slowdown. Analysts say that if uncertainty persists, gold demand could continue to rise, especially given the weakening dollar and signs of falling Treasury yields. -
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Date: 06th May 2025. Wall Street Rally Ends | Fed Decision & Trade War Weigh. Wall Street’s Longest Rally Since 2004 Ends Amid Trade Uncertainty and Weak Tech Performance Wall Street’s nine-day winning streak—the longest since 2004—came to a halt as bullish momentum faded. Major US indices closed lower: the Nasdaq dropped 0.74%, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.24%. Despite easing concerns over tariffs, lingering uncertainty surrounding their long-term impact kept investors on the sidelines. A stronger-than-expected ISM services report, which included a sharp rise in prices paid, and optimistic remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent, failed to lift sentiment. Apple led the market declines, while media and entertainment stocks—including Disney—fell after a 100% tariff was announced on imported films. Berkshire Hathaway also declined following Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement after six decades as CEO. Treasury Yields Climb as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade Treasury yields rose as upbeat economic data tempered expectations for rate cuts. The 2-year yield increased 1.2 basis points to 3.836%, the 3-year note ended 1 bp higher at 3.810%, the 10-year yield advanced 3.7 bps to 4.358%, and the 30-year yield climbed 4.2 bps to 4.830%. This marked the third straight session of yield increases. Despite a strong 3-year auction, bonds remained under pressure. US Dollar Index Slides Below 100; Greenback Faces Broad Weakness The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 100 mark, closing at 99.809 after touching a high of 100.030 and a low of 99.464. The dollar weakened against most G10 currencies and lost ground to several Asian counterparts as rate differentials failed to offer support. Nevertheless, stronger US economic data—including accelerated activity among US service providers—helped the dollar edge higher during the session, easing a rapid appreciation in Asian currencies spurred by optimism over potential trade agreements. Asia Forex Volatility Increases Amid Trade Hopes The greenback gained 0.2% after the ISM data release. The Taiwanese dollar dropped 0.1% after Monday's historic surge—the strongest since the 1980s. The yen also weakened slightly. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s currency saw its biggest inversion in over two decades as the spread between the spot rate and one-year NDFs hit 3,000 pips, signalling ongoing selling pressure on the US dollar. Global Market Reaction and Oil Rebound Equity index futures for the S&P 500 declined 0.4% after the index snapped its longest rally in nearly two decades. European and Asian markets mirrored the US retreat. Cash trading in Treasuries was halted during the Asian session due to a Japanese holiday. Oil prices rebounded slightly from four-year lows. US crude rose $0.74 to $57.87 per barrel, while Brent crude also gained $0.74 to settle at $60.97. However, WTI crude remained down 1.96% on the day, closing at $56.81 amid concerns about a global supply glut. OPEC+ announced it would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day starting June 1, contributing to a 4% drop in prices on Monday. Gold Surges on Chinese Demand; Equities Under Pressure Gold prices jumped 2.84%, reaching $3333.22 per ounce, driven by increased demand from China. Chinese markets rose after reopening from the Golden Week holiday. The Shanghai Composite added 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4%, Taiwan’s Taiex edged up 0.2%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%. Tech Stocks Lead US Declines; Fed Decision in Focus On Wall Street, tech giants dragged the market lower. Apple fell 3.1%, Amazon dropped 1.9%, and Tesla lost 2.4%. Palantir sank more than 9% in after-hours trading following disappointing results, while Ford warned of a $1.5 billion profit hit due to tariffs, causing its stock to fall 2.5%. Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery lost 1.9% and 2% respectively after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on foreign-made films. Meanwhile, shoemaker Skechers soared 24.3% on news it would be acquired for $9 billion by 3G Capital. Trade War Escalates as Tariff Policies Create Market Turmoil Tariff-related volatility continues to dominate market sentiment. Trump’s unpredictable trade measures—often announced or reversed overnight—have undermined the dollar’s traditional role as a safe haven and forced investors to reconsider US exposure. A recent 145% tariff on Chinese imports has triggered a steep decline in shipping activity and logistics. According to a Caixin survey, China's services sector activity fell to its lowest non-pandemic level, pushing Chinese firms’ overall optimism to its lowest since records began in April 2012, prompting further job cuts. Outlook: Federal Reserve Decision and Inflation Risks Loom Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady after cutting them three times in 2024. With inflation hovering just above the 2% target and economic uncertainty lingering, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious stance. The US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1—the first quarterly decline in three years—raising concerns about tariff driven slowdown. Inflation fears are resurfacing, compounding market anxieties as investors await clearer guidance from the Fed and potential developments on the trade front. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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