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USDCHF H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.05.2025 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The USDCHF pair today faces volatility due to key economic data releases. USD traders should pay close attention to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from S&P Global and ISM. These indices offer critical insights into the economic health of the US services sector. Positive PMI figures above 50.0 generally support a bullish outlook for the USD, increasing investor confidence. Conversely, the CHF is influenced today by Switzerland's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a crucial indicator for inflation expectations. Any CPI results significantly deviating from forecasts can induce volatility in CHF, impacting USD CHF price movements. Price Action: Analyzing USDCHF price action on the H4 chart, we notice the pair has been slightly bullish recently. However, in the last candles before market close, bearish momentum emerged, pushing prices towards the Ichimoku Cloud's upper band, which currently acts as immediate support. If prices breach and penetrate into the cloud, a bearish continuation is plausible. Meanwhile, the short-term moving average (9 MA, blue) and the longer-term average (17 MA, orange) have converged closely, with the 9 MA slightly dipping towards the 17 MA, signaling a potential bearish crossover and trend reversal if this continues. Key Technical Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku indicator reveals price currently positioned just above the cloud's upper boundary, suggesting immediate support. Entering the cloud would strengthen bearish sentiment and indicate potential downward momentum. Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The 9-period MA is declining slightly toward the 17-period MA, with both lines converging closely. A confirmed bearish crossover could signal a stronger bearish outlook. Volumes: The last two volume bars are declining and red, signifying weakening bullish participation and strengthening the bearish scenario if volume continues to diminish. MACD: The MACD histogram shows decreasing bullish momentum, implying weakening buying pressure and an impending bearish divergence. Traders should watch closely for the MACD line crossing below the signal line as a confirmation of bearish momentum. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently around 46.99, indicating a neutral momentum scenario with room for price movement in either direction. It highlights indecision in the current market context, urging caution. Support and Resistance: Support: Immediate support lies near the Ichimoku Cloud upper band around 0.8230; a significant break below could extend losses towards the psychological level of 0.8200. Resistance: Key resistance is clearly identified at the recent high near 0.8336, serving as a barrier to bullish attempts. Conclusion and Consideration: The USD/CHF H4 chart analysis suggests a cautious bearish bias due to the weakening bullish momentum evident in key technical indicators like MACD and MA convergence. Traders should closely monitor today's crucial economic releases for USD and CHF, as outcomes will significantly influence the USD-CHF pair's volatility. A breach of the immediate Ichimoku support could intensify bearish sentiments. Conversely, positive US data could reignite bullish momentum. Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential. FXGlory 05.05.2025

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US500 Price Action Faces Key Resistance The US500, commonly referred to as the S&P 500, is a key equity market index representing the performance of the top 500 publicly traded companies in the U.S. economy, making it a crucial indicator for investors worldwide. Fundamentally, today's market movements will be significantly influenced by critical U.S. economic data, particularly the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), along with the Federal Reserve’s quarterly lending report. An above-forecast PMI, indicative of robust growth in the service sectors, could positively affect investor sentiment, leading to increased buying pressure and potentially supporting further bullish price action. Conversely, signs of contraction in these reports could trigger bearish movements, increasing market volatility and downward pressure on the US500. Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. Analyzing the US500 H4 technical chart reveals that after an extended upward trend, the price has recently hit resistance at the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. Price action is currently indicating a retracement towards the first significant support level represented by the ascending trend line. If this trend line fails to hold, price action could further decline towards the previously established support zone, marking a deeper correction. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the market is currently overextended to the upside, implying potential downward momentum. The RSI indicator is currently at 62, suggesting that while bullish sentiment still prevails, it is losing strength and hinting towards potential bearish divergence. The Stochastic Oscillator also signals overbought conditions, reinforcing the expectation of an imminent pullback or consolidation period. • DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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USD/CHF steady ahead of CPI data release USDCHF on Friday drew a bearish candle with shadows on the upper and lower sides, where the lower shadow is longer than the upper shadow. The price formed a high of 0.83180 low of 0.82057 and closed at 0.82539. The Swiss Franc pair weakened as the US Dollar continued its correction after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April in early trading, but the Swiss Franc eventually strengthened to close lower than the opening price. The NFP report showed that the economy added 177k new jobs, much higher than the estimate of 130k, but slightly lower than March's reading of 185k. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2%, as expected. The Fed is predicted to keep interest rates on hold despite President Trump trying to pressure the Fed to cut rates soon. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates at 4.50% is 96.8% at its May 7 meeting. Trump wrote via Truth.Social "Gasoline prices just hit $1.98 a gallon, lowest in years, grocery prices (and eggs!) are down, energy is down, mortgage rates are down, employment is strong, and lots of other good news, as billions of dollars are flowing in from tariffs. As I said, we are just in the transition phase, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting years to see prices come down. No inflation, the Fed must lower rates!!! The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against a basket of six major currencies on Friday drew a bearish candle with an open of 100.179 high of 100.328 low of 99.397 close of 100.036. The DXY tried to rise but was held back by the 20 EMA, which acted as dynamic resistance at 100.471. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc's performance in the last week's movement tended to be mixed, with steady movement in the market range of 0.81953 - 0.83346 near the middle band line. Today ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Swiss Franc is slightly lower than the open. The Swiss CPI is expected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month after remaining flat in March.

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