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USD/CAD Daily Technical Analysis: Key Indicators and Market Trends Introduction to USD-CAD The USD/CAD, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. This forex pair is influenced heavily by oil prices due to Canada's major export of crude oil. Traders and investors monitor the USD CAD closely, as fluctuations can reflect economic health and policy changes in both the US and Canada. USDCAD Market Overview Currently, the USD/CAD pair is experiencing notable volatility driven by recent economic reports from both countries. The latest US NFIB Small Business Index, which gauges small business sentiment, influences trader expectations for future economic conditions. Additionally, commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly could hint at future US monetary policy direction, potentially impacting USD strength. Meanwhile, in Canada, the Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has recently provided key insights into economic activity, indicating industry expansion or contraction. Oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) could also significantly affect the Canadian dollar, given the country's dependency on energy exports. USD-CAD Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, USD vs. CAD recently broke the upward trend line, forming a classic wedge pattern visible on the daily chart. Price action responded positively after hitting the lower wedge boundary, aligning closely with the lower Bollinger Band (standard deviation). The pair is now trending towards the middle Bollinger Band (moving average), potentially targeting the upper boundary of the wedge pattern and upper Bollinger Band if bullish momentum continues. A breakout below the wedge could signal further bearish momentum, with the next support level around 1.38419. Additionally, MACD and the Awesome Oscillator indicate diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI has bounced from oversold levels, suggesting potential bullish strength. Final Words on USD vs. CAD The USD/CAD pair is currently at a pivotal technical juncture, making it essential for traders to closely watch key levels for breakout confirmations. Short-term movements may be volatile due to economic data releases and policy statements, particularly those affecting US interest rate expectations and Canada's economic outlook. Traders should maintain awareness of oil price fluctuations, as these will heavily influence CAD strength. Employing sound risk management strategies remains critical due to the potential for rapid shifts in market sentiment and momentum. 04.08.2025

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Date: 8th April 2025. Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%. In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact. Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations. China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’ Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media. If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%. In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce. Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing. Trump Talks Tough on EU Too Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’ The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs. Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%. The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease. Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26. Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+. Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July. However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026. In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026. Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery. Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Bearish Litecoin Found Support FenzoFx—Litecoin trades bearish below $84.0 with possible correction near this level. Watch for a bearish candlestick pattern to join the bears.

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Brent crude oil – a pause before further decline? Brent prices corrected to around 65.00 USD after falling to 62.50 USD on Monday. Today, market focus shifts to US crude oil inventory data from API. Discover more in our Brent analysis for 8 April 2025. Brent technical analysis Brent quotes corrected towards the 65.00 USD resistance level after the decline triggered by another escalation of the tariff war. The daily chart shows strong downward momentum. After the current correction, the decline may continue, with a key support level at 62.50 USD. Brent crude recovered to the 65.00 USD area after a sharp drop, but the risk of further decline persists. During the American session, markets will closely monitor API US crude oil stock data. Read more - Brent Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Strong data from Japan keeps USDJPY from rising further The USDJPY pair is slightly declining, currently trading at 147.70. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2025. USDJPY forecast: key trading points Donald Trump announces readiness to begin trade talks with Japan Japan posts a record current account surplus in February 2025 USDJPY forecast for 8 April 2025: 146.25 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate is retreating after Monday’s sharp rally, where the pair tested the key resistance level at 148.00. The Japanese yen temporarily weakened against the US dollar amid growing uncertainty around global trade — typically a driver of safe-haven demand. On the political front, Donald Trump confirmed his readiness to start trade negotiations with Japan following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The upcoming talks will address a wide range of issues, including tariffs, currency policy, and state subsidies. Robust economic data keeps the yen from further weakening. In February 2025, Japan recorded a record current account surplus of 4.0607 trillion yen, driven by strong export growth amid high external demand and a decline in imports due to lower energy prices and subdued domestic consumption. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

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Bearish Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance FenzoFx—Bitcoin trades bearishly below the critical resistance level of $81,160. If the price remains below this level, the downtrend will likely resume, targeting $74,000.

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USD/JPY Forex Pair Price Action Targeting Fibonacci Levels The USDJPY, widely known as the "Gopher," represents the currency pair of the United States Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). As a highly liquid forex pair, it is closely monitored by traders globally due to its sensitivity to interest rate decisions, geopolitical events, and economic data releases. Today, traders will closely watch the Adjusted Current Account from Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Eco Watchers Current Index, both of which significantly impact market sentiment towards the Yen. A better-than-expected Current Account surplus or higher Eco Watchers Index could strengthen the JPY by signaling improved domestic economic conditions. Conversely, the USD faces potential volatility due to the NFIB Small Business Index and Fed President Mary Daly's discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy, where any hawkish commentary could boost the USD. Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. Technical analysis of the USD-JPY H4 chart indicates that the price action recently broke through two critical support lines and is currently retesting the second broken support, now acting as resistance at approximately 147.929. Should price action continue its bearish momentum, traders could anticipate targets at Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.618 at 144.065 and potentially 2.618 at 139.738. Parabolic SAR indicates bearish sentiment as the dots remain above the candlesticks, signifying downward pressure. MACD is showing diminishing bullish momentum, potentially signaling a bearish crossover, while the RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting possible exhaustion in the recent upward correction and supporting the likelihood of a reversal to the downside. • DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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