official Market Analysis And News by Hotforex.com

[HFM]

Date : 9th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th July 2018.
 

 

Main Macro Events This Week
The US June jobs report was another “Goldilocks” set of numbers for the markets, drawing back in workers from the ranks of the long-term unemployed. Broadbased strength in employment not only helped Wall Street rally but the surge in the labor force and tame wage gain allowed Treasury yields to drift lower, since the report offered no incentive for the FOMC to deviate from its “gradual pace” of normalization. Looking forward, inflation data will dominate in the week ahead, with the Fed comfortably close to its 2% target now. The Fed will also release its Monetary Policy Report on Friday with Chairman Powell’s key follow-up semi-annual testimony on July 17.

United States: The US Economic calendar will zero in on inflation statistics for the week of July 9. Modest gains in the CPI and PPI are expected, with the y/y readings remaining above the Fed’s 2% target given hard comparisons. The Import Price Index may reveal weakness related to declining oil prices in the month, but export prices should post a modest gain. Consumer Credit (Monday) is projected to rise $12.0 bln in May, following a $9.3 bln gain in April. JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Headline CPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May, while core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in May (Wednesday), as revealed in the advance report, following a 0.1% gain in the prior month, and sales are estimated to rise 0.5% as well, after a 0.8% gain in April. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in June (Thursday), following a similar gain in May. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 18k to 213k in the week ended July 7 (Thursday), reflecting an expected early-July drop related to auto retooling, and the Treasury budget gap may hit to -$133 bln in June. A 0.2% decline is expected in the Import Price Index in June (Friday), due to crude oil weakness, following a 0.6% gain in May, while export prices are expected to continue to move up 0.1%.

Fedspeak kicks back into gear with just a week to go before Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony, which will be preceded by the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on Friday, July 13 at 11:00 ET.

Canada: Canada is focused squarely on the BoC meeting (Wednesday), which it is expected to result in a 25 basis point boost to a 1.50% rate setting. The accompanying monetary policy report should be consistent with additional rate increases, but at a gradual pace. The focus will be on Bank’s view on the ongoing trade/tariff issues, labor market slack and the inflation outlook. A housing-heavy data docket will be an afterthought this week. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to moderate to a 190.0k pace in June from 195.6k in May. Building permit values are seen dropping 2.0% in May after the 4.6% contraction in April. The New Home Price Index (Thursday) is projected to reveal a 0.1% dip (m/m, sa) in May after the flat reading in April. Existing home sales for June are expected on Friday. The Teranet/National Bank Housing Price Index for June is also scheduled for Thursday.

Europe: ECB tried to inject calm and prevent rate hike expectations from running ahead when it pledged to keep key rates steady through the summer of next year. But with growth indicators confirming that the recovery is not dead yet and inflation jumping higher, officials are now trying to regain control especially over the short end. ECB speakers will be important in this context. President Draghi will testify to the European Parliament in Brussels (Monday). It will be interesting to see whether he backs recent “source” stories suggesting ECB is eyeing the first rate hike in September/October next year, which would also be the last meetings for Draghi as President.

Final Eurozone June inflation data is expected to confirm the German HICP rate (Thursday) at 2.1% y/y. The French reading (Tuesday) also is at a 2.1% y/y rate which should leave the overall Eurozone number (due July 18) on course to be confirmed at 2.0% y/y. German data in particular bounced back strongly with May production and orders figures. Yet, while ongoing political uncertainty and risks of an escalating trade war have weighed on some confidence measures, there is some room for an upside surprise in German ZEW confidence (Tuesday). Still, this is investor confidence data which is more impacted by uncertainties and concerns about political events and at least the latest real sector numbers out of Germany have been very encouraging. Indeed, after German production growth was reported at 2.6% m/m in May, rebounds are expected in French (Tuesday), Italian (Tuesday) and Eurozone Production figures (Thursday). The calendar also has trade data for Germany.

UK: The calendar is fairly quiet in terms of economic releases, highlighted by the June BRC Retail Sales survey (Tuesday),and May Industrial Production and Trade data (also Tuesday).

The government has — after more than two years from vote-to-leave the EU — finally worked out what it wants from a post-Brexit deal with the EU. This was hammered out in a climactic Cabinet meeting on Friday, which saw the hard Brexiteers give up ground to reach a compromise. The government will seek a “EU-UK free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products,” which essentially means a single market for goods, along with a “facilitated customs arrangement” to address the need for a frictionless border in Ireland. It remains doubtful that the EU will agree to the free market for goods part, however, having maintained that the UK will not be able to cherry pick which parts of the single market to take part in. It also remains uncertain how effective the proposed frictionless customs arrangement will be. There are now only 5 negotiating weeks left until October, when both the EU and UK are looking to have an agreement in place.

Japan: The May Machine Orders (Wednesday) are seen contracting 5.0% m/m, essentially halving the April 10.1% climb. The May Tertiary Industry Index (Wednesday) is pencilled in slipping 0.1% after rising 1.0% in April. June PPI (Wednesday)should warm up to 2.9% y/y from 2.7%. Also slated is the final May reading on Industrial Production (Friday). It declined 0.2% in the preliminary report, after gains of 0.5% in April, 1.4% in March, and 2.0% in February.

China: It’s the June Trade Report (Friday) that will be the focal point. Inflation reports are also due with June CPI and PPI (Tuesday). CPI is expected to accelerate a bit to a 2.0% y/y pace versus 1.8% y/y previously, with PPI rising to 4.5% y/y from 4.1%. June loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Tuesday as well.

Australia: In Australia, Housing Investment (Wednesday) features on a thin data docket. A 3.0% drop is expected in May after the 1.4% gain in April. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks at the 5th Bund Summit on Fintech from Shanghai, China (Sunday). The RBA held rates steady last week and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

New Zealand: Retail Card Spending (Tuesday) is the only release of note and it is expected at a 0.7% gain (m/m) in June after the 0.4% rise in May. At the June meeting, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. The next move is expected to be a rate increase. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[pradegxs]

Nice.. what about your outlook on oil prices. Haven't seen it in your market digest recently..

[HFM]

Date : 10th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2018.
 

 

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields continue to climb and 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.864%, 10-year JGBs up 0.6 bp at 0.032% as Stock Markets remained in risk on mode during the Asian session. Nikkei gained 1.09% after a strong close on Wall Street and with the earnings season starting to overshadow lingering trade jitters – at least for now. A weaker Yen added Support. The Hang Seng is up 0.36%, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.20% and -0.11% respectively after their biggest rally in more than 2 years and as Inflation numbers came in higher than anticipated, but also reflecting lingering trade war concerns ahead of the next round of US tariffs due to be confirmed on July 20. Many expect markets to remain volatile ahead of July 20 – the date for the next set of US levies on Chinese imports. US stock futures are higher, however, and oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 74.29 per barrel.

FX Update: USDJPY has broken above recent range highs and printed a 7-week high at 111.14. EURJPY and other Yen crosses are also up, with EURJPY trading in 7-week high terrain and AUDJPY making 1-month highs. The driver of the yen’s underperformance is the continued rebound in global Stock Markets, although Chinese shares continue to underperform. The solid US jobs report last Friday and expectations for a strong corporate earnings season have been buoying equities, and while the shift toward trade protectionism remains at the top of the worry list of investors, the level of implemented tariffs so far is small in the scheme of things. BoJ Governor Kuroda yesterday repeated that the central bank will remain committed to ultra-accommodative monetary policy, including yield-curve control, until inflation hits the 2% target. USDJPY has Support at 110.88-90 while the May-21 high at 111.39, which is the highest level seen since mid January, provides an upside waypoint.

Charts of the Day

 

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Production Data – Expectations – Industrial production expected to rebound by 0.5% m/m after contracting by 0.8% m/m in the month prior, while we see the narrower manufacturing output figure rising 0.8% m/m after declining by 1.4% m/m in April.
• UK Trade Balance – Expectations – expected to fall to 11.9B from 14.0B last month .
• German ZEW – Expectations – July investor sentiment reading anticipated at -18.0 down from -16.1 in June, confirming that pessimists still outnumber optimists.
• Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – expected to rebound to a 210.0k pace in June after falling to 195.6k in May from 216.8k in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

 

Date : 11th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th July 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is trading at 0.3598% as of 06:12 GMT, down from a close of 0.3672% on Tuesday. Safe haven flows are once again underpinning core Bond Markets and 10-year Treasury yields are down 1.5 bp at 2.834%, after a Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese imports and reloaded the trade war threat. Stock markets sold off across Asia and European Futures are also heading south in tandem with US Futures. With little on the European data calendar, trade jitters are likely to remain the main focus in markets, although many expect investors to quickly start to focus on the earnings season again after the initial sharp reaction. Germany and Italy are set to sell Bonds today and there are a number of ECB speakers including president Draghi.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have traded in narrow ranges so far today amid a tone of heightened caution as stock markets take a fresh tumble, led by Chinese bourses, due to another ratchet in trade warning tensions between the US and China. US Index Futures have also seen hefty declines. USDJPY has settled lower, near the 111.0 mark, after printing a 7-week high at 111.35 yesterday, while AUDJPY, a relatively high beta cross, is down quite sharply, by over 0.6%. AUDUSD is down by a similar magnitude. Most emerging market currencies have also come under pressure against the Dollar, giving back some of their rebound gains seen in recent sessions. EURUSD has lifted back above 1.1700, rebounding from yesterday’s three-session low at 1.1690. The pair has been trading in a broadly sideways, at times choppy, range for over a month now, and more of the same is anticipated.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• ECB speeches –ECB President Draghi delivers a speech at the ECB Statistics Conference in Frankfurt, along with Praet and Lautenschläger.

• US PPI and Core – Expectations – Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May, while core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May.

• BoC Monetary Policy and Rate statement – Expectations – BoC expected to raise the policy rate 25 basis points. Economic data has come in roughly as the Bank projected, with growth running around capacity and underlying inflation at 2%.

• BoC Press Conference

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 12th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields moved higher as risk appetite improved. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.9 bp at 2.858% and the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.032%. Asian stock markets meanwhile recovered from yesterday’s slump, with Chinese markets outperforming as trade jitters abated somewhat as Chinese and U.S. officials reportedly flagged the prospect of returning to talks, with China’s Vice Minister of Commerce calling for bilateral negotiations to resolve the conflict. BoK’s decision to leave the 7-day repo rate unchanged at 1.50%, as expected had little impact. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 1.23% respectively, with a weaker Yen underpinning gains. The Hang Seng gained 1.00% and the CSI 300 is up 2.57%. US Futures are moving higher and the WTI Future is up from a low of EUR 70.60, but at USD 70.80 still considerably below recent levels.

German June HICP confirmed at 2.1% y/y, as expected. There were no real surprises in the data, which confirmed that higher energy prices are a key reason for the overshoot in the headline rate above ECB’s target. Heating oil prices rose 30.3% y/y, after 24.3% y/y in the previous month and petrol price inflation accelerated to 11.3% y/y from 8.2% y/y. Still, with the labour market looking tight and companies facing capacity constraints the room for a second round of effects to emerge is clearly larger than it was a year ago, which may explain why some at the ECB are nervous about markets pushing out rate hike expectations too far back.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• BOE Credit Conditions Survey

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

• US CPI and Core – Expectations – forecast to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May.

• US Jobless claims – Expectations – estimated to fall 18k to 213k in the week ended July 7, reflecting an expected early-July drop related to auto retooling

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 16th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

Politics will continue to dominate the landscape in early Q3, pretty much as it’s done for most of the year amid escalating trade tensions. Of course, President Trump’s meeting with President Putin in Helsinki (Monday) is anxiously awaited and follows his meetings last week with PM May and NATO. While the political uncertainties have left the markets choppy, signs of strengthening US growth have overshadowed potential drags from trade and have provided global support to equities.

United States: Fed Chairman Powell’s Monetary Policy testimony (Tuesday) would normally be the key event. However, with the FOMC unlikely to divert from its gradualist policy path anytime soon, and especially amid trade uncertainties, attention will shift to earnings announcements and data. The end result of the testimony, however, should support expectations for another 25 bp hike at theSeptember 25, 26 FOMC meeting, while the chances for another tightening in December will be assessed, though that will depend largely on data. Powell will reprise his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday).

In terms of economic reports, it’s the June Retail Sales report (Monday) that’s the star. Also due is June Industrial Production (Tuesday), seen rising 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report. The Empire State index (Monday) should fall to 20.0 in July from an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 23.0 in July after falling to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June. Slated too are Housing Starts (Wednesday), estimated falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

Canada: June Existing Homes Sales report is expected Monday. Manufacturing Shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in May after the 1.3% drop in April. Retail Sales (Friday) are seen snapping back 1.0% in May after the 1.2% loss in April that was blamed on poor weather during the month. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after a 0.1% dip. The CPI (Friday) is expected to slip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the surprisingly slim 0.1% gain in May, as falling gasoline prices impact in June. The annual growth rate is seen at 2.2% (y/y, nsa), matching the 2.2% y/y clip in May. The three core CPI measures are expected to maintain the 1.9% annual rate of expansion in June.

Europe: Politics have been dominating the agenda last week and this week is unlikely to be different, with Europe not only looking nervously to President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, but also once again to Brussels. So far the focus has been on PM May’s battle to sell her “soft Brexit” vision at home, but she still has to get an agreement with EU leaders. This week’s calendar includes Eurozone trade and current account numbers, which generally don’t have too much market impact, although a strong export number would underpin the central scenario of still robust growth, while at the same time, will fuel the debate on the EU’s and especially Germany’s trade reliance against the background of rising protectionism. The highlight of the data calendar is the final reading of Eurozone June HICP inflation.

UK: Political developments and Brexit will remain sharply in focus. President Trump’s apparent walking back on Friday of his criticisms of Prime Minister May — after championing Boris Johnson’s credentials as a potential PM in an interview with a Murdoch-owned tabloid newspaper that is wanting to topple PM May — lifted both the Pound and UK yields.

The data calendar this week is pretty busy, highlighted by monthly Labor data (Tuesday), June Inflation data (Wednesday), and June Retail Sales (Thursday).The labor report expected to show the Unemployment Rate remaining at 4.2%, and Average Household Income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June. June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report.

Japan: The markets are closed Monday. The June Trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 580.5 bln deficit turn to a JPY 580.0 bln surplus as exports likely outpaced imports on a 12-month basis. June national CPI (Friday) is penciled in accelerating to a 0.9% y/y clip overall, from 0.7% in May, as oil prices firmed and JPY softened. The latter has also likely helped push the core rate to 0.8% y/y, from May’s 0.7%. The May all Industry index (Friday) is forecast to fall 0.1% m/m from the prior 1.0% gain.

Australia: The Employment report (Thursday) takes top billing, where a 15.0k gain is expected in June after the 12.0k rise in May. The Unemployment Rate is projected at 5.4%, matching May and down from 5.6% in April. The minutes of RBA’s July meeting are due Tuesday. To review, RBA held the cash rate steady at 1.50% at the meeting this month and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

New Zealand: The calendar has Q2 CPI (Tuesday), expected to rise 0.6% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. It is expected that the next move will be a rate increase — but the current expectation is for steady policy well into next year. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 17th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields continued to move higher during the Asian session, with 10-year Treasury yields up 0.5bp at 2.864% and 10-year JGB yields up 0.4 bp at 0.033%. Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japanese bourses outperforming after returning from yesterday’s holiday as the Yen declined. Chinese Equities meanwhile sold off amid lingering trade jitters and with investors not convinced that earnings can compensate for the rise in protectionism. Markets are looking ahead to Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress. Nikkei is currently up 0.78%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.06% and -1.25%. US Stock Futures are narrowly mixed, and Oil prices are little changed at USD 67.99 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have been holding narrow ranges for the most part, with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, and other pairings, showing respective net changes of less than 0.2% on the day so far. EURUSD has been making time in the lower 1.1700s, and USDJPY in the lower 112.00s, after edging out a two-session high of 112.57. The Sterling has held up after the UK government scrapped through four parliamentary votes on its Customs Bill late yesterday, which was seen as a litmus test of the so-called Chequers plan (the Cabinet rubber-stamped plan laying out what it wants out of Brexit). There is another parliamentary vote today. While some hardline Brexiteers MPs are agitating for a no confidence vote in the prime minister, so far they are reported to lack sufficient support, and Boris Johnson, the Brexiteer with the most political weight, has remained on the side lines. Sterling market participants will be watching developments closely.

Charts of the Day


Main Macro Events Today

• BOE Gov Carney Speech

• UK Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings– Expectations – The Labor report is expected to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, and average household income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June.

• US Industrial Production – Expectations – to rise 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report.

• Canadian Manufacturing – Expectations – to rise 0.5% after the 1.3% drop in April.

• Fed Chair Powell Testimony – Expectations – The Fed chief will likely be grilled on the impacts of trade, but he’ll have to take a wait and see approach there, while noting there are risks to the downside.

Support and Resistance levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

 

Date : 18th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields moved slightly higher, as is appetite improved and stock markets advanced across Asia with the Fed Chairman Powell injecting fresh life into equity markets with an upbeat assessment of the US economy. Positive leads from the US and a record high in the NASDAQ helped to underpin sentiment in Asia amid mixed earnings reports this week. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.48% and 0.71% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.20% so far and the CSI 300 0.59%, while the ASX is up 0.61%. Improved risk appetite saw 10-year Treasury yields rising 0.5 bp to 2.866% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.7 bp at 0.035%, while yields declined in China, Australia and New Zealand. US stock futures suggest further gains in US markets today. The WTI future is down on the day and trading at USD 67.68 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer for a 2nd day, buoyed by an upbeat prognosis of the US economy and outlook by Fed chair Powell yesterday at his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. EURUSD descended to a 3-day low at 1.1631 while USDJPY ascended above 113.00 for the first time since January. AU-USD printed a 1-week low at 0.7363 and USDCAD a 3-week high at 1.3227. Powell’s remarks seemed to hit a sweet spot, having expressed optimism on the growth outlook while being somewhat circumscribed on inflation, which leaves the Fed on course for another 25 bp hike in September, and another in December, but not to the displeasure of equity investors, who have also been encouraged by positive Q2 corporate earnings announcements, and expectations for more to come. In the UK, the Prime Minister once again survived a key vote on a Brexit-related bill by the skin of her teeth last night (although lost one concerning the regulation of medicines after Brexit). So the PM and her government survives, but Brexit process is looking borderline disorderly.

Charts of the Day




Main Macro Events Today

• UK CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report. As for Retail Sales, growth of 0.2% m/m in June is anticipated, down from the strong 1.3% m/m growth that was posted in May.

• Eurozone CPI – Expectations – Eurozone HICP inflation reached 2.0% y/y with the preliminary release, thus hitting ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, with French as well as Italian HICP rates revised down by 0.1 percentage points with the final numbers, there is the chance of a downward revision to the final reading. Even with a slight downward revision we don’t expect ECB to be changing its key policy parameters which include the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year.

• US Building Permits – Expectations – estimated to be falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

• Fed Chair Powell Testimony for a 2nd day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 19th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Bond as well as stock markets traded mixed during the Asian session. 10-year Treasury yields rose 1.7 bp to 2.886%, after Fed Chairman Powell’s hearing did little to derail rate hike expectations. 10-year JGB yields meanwhile dropped -0.3 bp to 0.031%, as the BoJ cut back its purchases of longer-maturity bonds for the first time since January. Australian 10-year yields surged 3.3 bp as Australia employment surged, thus underpinning expectations for wage growth, inflation and a rate hike further down the line. Stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.03% and down -0.06% respectively. The Hang Seng is down -0.12%, the CSI 300 down -0.09%. The ASX 200 is up 0.36% after the strong employment numbers, but US stock futures are also trading narrowly mixed. Oil prices are marginally higher on the day with the WTI future trading at USD 68.78 per barrel.

Australia employment surged 50.9k in June, well in excess of expectations following the 13.4k rise in May (was +12.0k). The details were upbeat, as full time employment rose 41.2k after a 19.9k drop (was -20.6k). Part time jobs grew 9.7k after a 33.4k gain (was +32.6k). The unemployment rate was 5.4% in June, matching May. The participation rate rose to 65.7% from 65.5%, restraining the unemployment rate. This report is strong, but it is not likely to persuade RBA to raise rates anytime soon given still non-threatening underlying inflation growth and concerns about downside risk to China’s outlook. Moreover, the July meeting minutes saw the Bank observing that there is likely ongoing excess capacity in the labour market. AUDUSD jumped to 0.7435 on the surprisingly strong job gain, from about 0.7400, before slipping slightly to 0.7425.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• UK Retail Sales – Expectations – growth of 0.3% m/m in June is anticipated, down from the strong 1.3% m/m growth that was posted in May.

• US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – Expected to rise to 21.0 in July, after falling to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June.

• US Jobless Claims – Expectations – estimated to be rising to 220K, following the 214K last week.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 20th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th July 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The September 10-year Bund future opened at 163.16, up from 163.08 at yesterday’s close. The 10-year cash yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.326% in early trade, versus a 1.1 bp gain in US Treasury yields. Asian Stock and Bond markets traded mixed after China devalued the yuan, which saw Chinese 10-year yields jumping 5.6 bp, and Chinese stocks rallying, while Topix and Nikkei are still slightly down on the day. European Stock Futures meanwhile are heading south, with trade jitters continuing to weigh. Released at the start of the session German PPI inflation accelerated to 3.0% y/y as expected and largely thanks to base effects from higher energy prices. The data calendar still has Eurozone current account data as well as UK Public Finance numbers.

The PBoC devalued the Yuan by the most for a single day since June 2016, with USDCNY’s reference rate set at 6.7671, up from yesterday’s 6.7066 and the highest in a year. The offshore Yuan fell over 0.5% to a 6.8358 low versus the Dollar, a level not seen since late July last year, before recouping to 6.8212 amid reports of major state banks buying the Yuan in what most market participants and onlookers take as Beijing-directed intervention to prevent a rapid tumble in the currency. The weaker setting of the reference rate comes hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest venting about China’s currency valuation, deepening concerns about the evolving Sino-US trade war.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – Expectations – is expected at 3.6B from 3.4B last month.

• Canadian CPI – Expectations – The CPI is expected to slip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the surprisingly slim 0.1% gain in May, as falling gasoline prices impact in June. The annual growth rate is seen at 2.2% (y/y, nsa), matching the 2.2% y/y clip in May. The three core CPI measures are expected to maintain 1.9% annual rate of expansion in June.

• Canadian Core Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are seen snapping back 1.0% in May after the 1.2% loss in April that was blamed on poor weather during the month (ice storm!). The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after an 0.1% dip.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 23rd July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

Markets have had plenty to chew on over the past week or so and President Trump has been right at the sharp end of the action as his whirlwind tour took him through Brussels, London and finally Helsinki. In the process, he left friend and foe alike on notice over perceived inequities on military spending, trade alliances and post-cold war standing. The themes weren’t new, but the force and timing of the mixed political messages caused alarm overseas. A plethora of corporate earnings will dominate in the week ahead, along with any volatility arising from the ratcheting up of trade rhetoric.

United States: The economic data calendar in the week of July 23 will be dominated by Q2 GDP growth, though we will have to wait until Friday for the release. A robust 4.1% pace is expected, with positive contributions from consumer spending, net exports and inventories. Also on tap will be existing home sales, which are estimated to rise, and new home sales, which are projected to fall, partially reversing a June surge. Durable orders should rebound from weakness in the prior two months while the advance trade numbers should reveal a deterioration. Finally, the final July reading of the Michigan Sentiment should be little-changed from a lower but still-strong early-July reading.

Fedspeak: In theory, Fedspeak will go into hibernation ahead of the next Fed meeting set for July 31 – August 1, which is expected to result in a pause. Of course, more Trump frontal attacks on the Fed will heighten market interest in what should be an uneventful policy meeting, though the Committee itself will be unaffected. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard said last week in post-speech comments Fed will continue to take the best actions to achieve its dual mandate.

Canada: The May Wholesale report (Monday) is expected to reveal a 0.7% gain in shipment values after the 0.1% increase in April. An as-expected result would be supportive of the projection for a 0.3% gain in May GDP (m/m, sa) following the 0.1% rise in April. Moreover, a firm May result would put Q2 GDP on track for a 2.8% gain (q/q, saar) that would match BoC’s estimate for the separate quarterly real GDP measure. Average weekly earnings for May (Thursday)are projected to gain 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% drop in April. There is nothing scheduled from BoC this week, or until the September 5 announcement.

Europe: The spotlight also will be on Draghi this week, although no major changes are expected to the ECB’s central message from June. Net Asset Purchases remain on course to be phased out by the end of the year, but Draghi may be under pressure to clarify the commitment to keep rates steady “through the summer” of 2019. The question is whether that excludes a move at the September 2019 meeting, as one ECB member seemed to imply, prompting a number of “source stories” suggesting that not everyone at the council would be happy to wait too long for the first move. Indeed, with the deposit rate still firmly in negative territory and underlying inflation on the way higher, the central bank may have to hike rates earlier than some expect, even if uncertainty about the global trade and growth outlook mean ECB is right to keep its options open.

Data releases include the first reading of Q2 GDP from a major Eurozone country as well as first confidence data for the third quarter in the form of preliminary July PMI readings and July German Ifo confidence numbers. Growth indicators for the second quarter initially looked very shaky, but on the whole we still expect a rebound in quarterly growth and to see an acceleration in French Q2 GDP growth to 0.4% q/q from 0.2% q/q in Q2.

UK: The focus will remain on Brexit negotiations, which haven’t exactly been going swimmingly. Last week, Prime Minister May’s fragile government only just managed to push through several bills on modifications to the newly-formed Brexit policy document, which will form the basis for negotiating with the EU. The European Commission stated last week that “everyone must now step up plans for all scenarios” ahead of March 29 next year, especially in the event of a no-deal exit. The Pound is trading about 13-14% lower in trade-weighted terms since the vote to leave the EU back in June 2016, much of which represents the Brexit discount that market participants are demanding. This discount is expected to persist.

The calendar this week is relatively quiet, with the only highlights being provided by the July releases of the CBI industrial trends and distributive sales surveys (due Tuesday and Thursday, respectively). The Total Orders headline of the industrial trends survey expected to dip to a reading of 8, down from 13 in the previous month, and the realized sales headline of the retail survey to fall to a reading of 16 after 32 in the month prior. The CBI surveys don’t tend to cast much impact in markets due both the amount and breadth of participants, and the relatively small survey period.

Japan: The calendar is quiet until Thursday, when June services PPI is due. The prices are expected to slow to a 0.1% y/y pace versus the prior 1.0% increase. July Tokyo CPI (Friday) is seen at an unchanged 0.6% y/y overall, and a steady 0.7% y/y clip on a core basis.

Australia: The CPI (Wednesday) is expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. The Trade Price report (Thursday) is seen showing a 1.0% rise in Q2 import prices (q/q, sa) after the 2.1% bounce in Q1. A 2.0% drop in Q2 exports prices is projected after the 4.9% gain in Q1. The Q2 PPI is scheduled for release on Friday. The RBA is uncharacteristically silent until the August 7meeting, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate is expected.

New Zealand: The trade report (Wednesday) is expected to show a narrowing in the surplus to NZ$200 mln in June from NZ$294 mln in May. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. To review the June meeting, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. The next move is anticipated to be a rate increase — but the expectation is for steady policy well into next year. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 24th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Yields continued to move higher during the Asian session, confirming that reports of policy tweaks at the BoJ have reminded traders that major central banks remain on course to take out more stimulus. 10-year JGBs yields initially corrected some of yesterday’s gains but recovered losses during the later part of the session, and yields mostly moved higher elsewhere in Asia as stock markets rallied. 10-year Treasury yields by contrast fell back from earlier highs and are down -0.6 bp at 2.949%. The 10-year JGB yield is now up 0.3 bp at 0.077%. 10-year yields rose 3.3 bp in China as the Yuan fell sharply amid signs that China is shifting towards monetary expansion, as the government presented measures designed to boost domestic demand. Still, while this may be a reaction to signs that the trade war will worsen the economic slowdown, the slip in the Yuan also adds to risks that the trade war will turn into a currency war. For now though it has put a fire under Chinese equities in particular while rising yields aided financial companies. The CSI is up 1.55%, the Hang Seng gained 1.42%, and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.48% and 0.52% respectively. The ASX is also up 0.58%. US Stock futures are equally moving higher.

FX Update: The Dollar is showing modest gains versus most currencies heading into the London interbank open, underpinned by the further rise in US 10-year T-note yield yesterday, which lifted to 5-week highs, pushing towards the 3.0% level again amid market speculation that Friday’s advance US Q2 GDP report will top the median forecast for 4.1% y/y growth. The USD index (DXY) lifted to two-session highs, while EURUSD printed a two-session low of 1.1666. USDJPY, in contrast, has traded with little direction in the lower 111.0s after yesterday printing a 3-day low at 110.75. Japanese exporters were reported buying Yen during the early part of the Tokyo session today, which contributed to driving USDJPY to an intraday low of 111.06. The pair subsequently lifted back some amid a backdrop of rallying stock markets in Asia, led by Chinese bourses on reports that Beijing will adopt a more “vigorous” fiscal policy, including corporate tax cuts.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• German Markit PMI – Expectations – The Manufacturing PMI is seen falling to 55.5 from 55.9, and the services reading to 54.3 from 54.5

• Eurozone July PMIs – Expectations –The EMU Manufacturing PMI is seen falling to 54.6 from 54.9, and the services reading to 55.0 from 55.2.

• US Housing Price Index, Markit PMIs & Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – FHFA home prices are forecast to rise to 264.1 in May from 262.5. Also the Markit flash PMIs are on tap, along with the Richmond Fed index seen dipping to 17 in July from 20.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 25th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.3 bp at 2.936%, 10-year JGB yields are down -1.0 bp at 0.063% and long term yields are also down in Australia and New Zealand. BoJ didn’t scale back its bond purchases at today’s regular operation thus helping to ease concerns of policy tweaks. Hopes of stimulus measures in China continue to battle with trade jitters ahead of Trump’s meeting with European commission President Juncker and Asian markets are mixed, with Chinese underperforming and correcting some of the recent gains. Nikkei is up by 0.41%. US stock futures are heading south, Oil prices are higher and the September future is trading at USD 68.79 on a stock pile decrease.

FX Update: The Aussie took a dip on Australian CPI data, which came in at 0.4% q/q in Q2, below the median forecast for 0.5%. AUDUSD fell nearly 0.5%, making an intraday low of 0.7392. Elsewhere, the Dollar majors have shown little net change. Commitment in markets has been limited, with strong corporate earnings and China’s course for fiscal stimulus offset by concerns about long-term trade protectionism. The Yuan logged fresh lows after PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate above 6.8. The focus today will fall on the meeting between President Trump and European Commission President Juncker, where few are holding out for any breakthrough on their differences on trade. USDJPY has remained settled in the lower 111.0s, above the 2-week low that was printed on Monday at 110.75, and EURUSD has held in a narrow range in the upper 1.1600s.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• German IFO – Expectations – The latest German orders data showed a stronger than expected recovery – this is expected to help stabilize the Ifo reading, although after the revamp on the index to include the services sector, manufacturing doesn’t have quite the dominant role it used to have in the key German business confidence readings. Indeed PMI readings today showed services confidence falling against a pick up in manufacturing confidence. Against that background, the July Ifo is expected to be steady at 101.8.

• US New Home Sales – Expectations – expected to fall 3.0% in June to 668k, following a 6.7% surge to 689k in May that reflected firm sales in the South.

• Crude Oil Inventories

• President Trump and European Commission President Juncker Meeting

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[MikeJq]

At the moment, I can't work in the US because I need to get https://usimmigrationforms.com/form-g-884-return-of-original-documents/  , but later, when I will finish with my immigration process, I would like to go deeper with this broker! You have amazing statistics and it's extremely cool!  It's almost impossible to find such a nice platform in the EU :(

[HFM]

Date : 26th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th July 2018.



FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields jumped higher in opening trade, in catching up with the jump in 10-year Treasury yields late Wednesday following Trump’s agreement with Juncker on trade talks that seemed to suspend the threat of auto-tariffs for now and sparked hopes that a trade war can be avoided. As of 06:22 AM GMT the 10-year Bund yield is up 2.2 bp at 0.414%, and while Treasury yields have pulled back from yesterday’s highs and are down -1.1 bp on the day, 10-year JGB yields are up 1.5 bp at 0.079%. Peripheral bonds are outperforming and European stock futures are rallying, led by a nearly 1.3% rise in GER30 futures. In theory a de-escalation of trade tensions would add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB council meeting, which adds to pressure on Bunds, but China’s example has shown that the apparent truce may not last long and Draghi is likely to remain cautious.

FX Update: The Yen has been trading firmer while the Dollar has been steady against most currencies. EURUSD edged out a fresh 4-day high of 1.1743 earlier in Asia, marginally extending the gain seen after the unexpectedly cordial meeting between President Trump and the EU’s Junker. USDJPY has remained heavy as the 10-year JGB yield lifted to a 1-year high of 0.89% amid prevailing speculation that BoJ could scale back its stimulus program, despite concurrent expectations for the central bank to trim inflation forecasts at its policy meeting next week. USDJPY printed a 17-day low of 110.66 late yesterday and has since ebbed back towards 110.70 after a brief rebound stalled near 111.00. The mood in equity markets has turned more negative after Wall Street was boosted in the late session yesterday as the US agreed to hold off on car tariffs. Some corporate earnings and/or circumspect corporate guidance, including from Facebook, General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler, have soured sentiment somewhat, along with what some are calling “Trump fatigue.”

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Refinancing Rate – Expectations – No major changes are expected to ECB’s central message from June at today’s policy meeting. Net asset purchases remain on course to be phased out by the end of the year, but Draghi may be under pressure to clarify the commitment to keep rates steady “through the summer” of 2019. The question is whether that excludes a move at the September 2019 meeting, as one ECB member seemed to imply.

• ECB Press Conference

• US Durable Goods and Jobless Claims – Expectations – The Durable Goods orders are estimated rising 1.2% in June, after a 0.4% decline in May, and shipments should increase 1.5% with inventories up 0.3%. Initial Jobless claims are estimated to rebound 10k to 217k in the week ended July 21, following a 207k reading in the week of July 14 — a new 48-year low.

• Tokyo Core CPI – Expectations – July Tokyo CPI is seen at an unchanged 0.6% y/y overall, and a steady 0.7% y/y clip on a core basis.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 27th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th July 2018.



FX News Today

European Market Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields are holding above the 0.4% mark in early trade, despite the weaker than expected French GDP number ahead of the open, but underpinned by a sharp acceleration in German import price inflation to 4.8% y/y. Peripherals are slightly outperforming this morning after Draghi’s dovish leaning take on rates, which counterbalance rising confidence at the central bank that underlying inflation will gradually move towards targets. European Stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with US futures amid hopes of strong US growth and an easing of trade tensions.Chinese bonds outperformed as local Stock Indices headed south and amid signs that the People Bank of China is endorsing policies to underpin growth as China readies for a protracted trade conflict with the US. Hopes for stronger US growth and a NAFTA deal underpinned sentiment and helped markets to move past yesterday’s tech sell off in the US and Dow Jones (USA30), USA500 and NASDAQ futures are all moving higher. Oil prices are little changed on the day and trading at USD 69.61 per barrel.The calendar still has French consumer confidence numbers but markets will focus on US GDP numbers in the PM session.

FX Update: The Dollar has been trading with a firming bias as markets anticipate a strong advance US GDP report for Q2, which will be released later today (and which President Trump and members of his administration have been flagging), though trading ranges have remained narrow thus far today. EURUSD edged out a 1-week low of 1.1637, and Cable and AUDUSD respective 3-day lows, of 1.3100 and 0.7372. USDJPY, meanwhile, remained below yesterday’s high at 111.25, though recovered back above 111.0 after a short-lived dip to 110.92. The low in USDJPY was seen as the 10-year JGB yield popped above 0.1% before a special yield-curve control buying operation by BoJ pushed it back below 0.1%. Japanese Tokyo CPI for July rose to 0.9% y/y from 0.6% y/y, above the 0.8% y/y figure expected. The PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.7942, up from yesterday’s 6.7662 rate.

Charts of the Day




Main Macro Events Today

• US GDP & Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – expected to rise at a 4.1% rate in Q2, double the 2.0% pace in Q1, while final Michigan sentiment may remain at 97.1 in July, a 6-month low, compared to a 14-year high of 101.4 in March.

• US PCE – Expectations – The core y/y PCE core prices expected to stick beyond the Fed’s 2.0% objective for a 3rd month in July, at 2.2%

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 30th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th July 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

There’s plenty of data this week to provide clues, though tariff and trade uncertainties will continue to muddy the outlooks, especially as they impact growth and inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, central bank policies are in play with FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings.

United States: Traders will be actively monitoring this week’s heavy data slate, including Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM, Vehicle Sales, Trade, the ECI, and Confidence. Additionally, the FOMC meets (Tuesday, Wednesday), but it should be a non-event. There’s also the advent of supply with the August Refunding announcement. The July Employment report (Friday)holds its usual top spot as the indicator of the month. The Unemployment rate is expected to dip back to 3.9%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Nearly all labor market indicators have boasted of very tight conditions and extreme difficulty in finding qualified workers, which resulted in a huge jump in the labor force in June. The Manufacturing ISM (Wednesday) is projected to fall to 59.0 in July, from June’s 60.2, and down only slightly from the 14-year high of 60.8 from February, and would still reflect a robust rate of expansion. The Non-Manufacturing ISM (Friday) should decline to 58.0 in July, from 59.1 in June, and from the 12-year high of 59.9 in January. July Vehicle Sales (Wednesday) are expected to slow modestly to 17.2 mln from a 17.4 mln June pace.

The June Trade Deficit (Friday) will get additional scrutiny for indications of trade flows. The deficit is estimated to narrow to an average -$135.7 bln in Q2, down from -$142.3 bln in Q1. Net exports detracted from growth in Q4 and Q1 but there was a strong positive contribution from this component in Q2 GDP. June Personal income and Consumption (Tuesday) should help fine tune Q2 GDP forecasts. The Q2 Employment Cost Index (Tuesday) is estimated rising 0.6%, moderating from a 0.8% gain in Q1. Also, July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 127.0, from a 126.4 level in June. Confidence measures continued to be well-supported by the strength in the economy and the tight labor market.

Canada: Canada releases its May GDP report (Tuesday) which will be the highlight of the week, though June trade (Friday) will also featuring prominently. The calendar is otherwise rather sparse, with the June industrial product price index (Tuesday) and the July Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) rounding out the docket. GDP is expected to grow 0.2% in May (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in April. Retail sales rebounded in May after a weather driven drop in April, supportive of firm GDP growth. Manufacturing and wholesale shipments also improved. But some operations at some refiners remained shut down for maintenance, which could exert a sizable drag on total GDP growth in May. The trade deficit is seen narrowing to -C$2.3 bln in June from -C$2.8 bln in May. The industrial product price index is seen slipping 0.3% in June (m/m, nsa) after the 1.0% surge in May. The Markit manufacturing PMI for July may show some slippage in activity after climbing 0.9 points to a record high of 57.1 in June, with strength in new orders.

Europe: This week’s data releases won’t have an immediate impact on the rate outlook as there will be another set of data before the next policy meeting. Still, with the next round of confidence data and preliminary July inflation numbers ahead, the calendar will be important for the medium term outlook. On the whole data expected to confirm the central bank’s central scenario of robust, but slowing growth accompanied by a gradual rise in underlying inflation.

The preliminary reading for Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) headlines this week and a marginal acceleration is expected in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.4%. The already released French number came in lower than expected and saw an unchanged quarterly rate of 0.2%, but this was partly due to the impact of strike action last quarter. Even if the quarterly growth rate comes in a tad below expectations, Draghi already acknowledged that some of the weakness in the Q1 had spilled over into the second, so modest Q2 growth is already part of ECB’s central scenario.

The ESI Economic Confidence reading (Monday) is expected to dip to 112.1 from 112.3 in the previous month, with the renewed decline in confidence tying in with slightly weaker PMI and IFO readings. Indeed, the Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at 55.1, in line with the preliminary number, but the Services PMI (Friday) is expected at 54.4, which should leave the composite reading at 54.3, unchanged from the preliminary reading and down from 54.9 in June. Confidence is starting to erode, even as data still points to ongoing robust growth. But the survey also reported that price pressures remain elevated. Results in line with the preliminary inflation readings are expected to leave the German HICP print (Monday) unchanged at 2.1%, the French reading (Tuesday) at 2.3% and the Eurozone reading (Tuesday) unchanged at 2.0%. This is already in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability. Yet, with core inflation still much lower, the elevated headline reading is not sufficient to force Draghi to bring forward the timing for the first rate hike. ECB is getting more confident, though, that underlying inflation is slowly moving higher, especially with improvements in labor markets underpinning wage growth. A further decline in German jobless number (Tuesday) by -4K is anticipated, which would leave the July seasonally adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 5.2%). Eurozone June unemployment meanwhile is also seen unchanged at 8.4%.

UK: Top of the agenda is the August BoE MPC meeting (announced Thursday), which will come with the publication of the central bank’s latest quarterly inflation report. BoE is anticipated to hike the repo rate by 0.25 bp, which would take it to 0.75%. This would be the 3rd increase within a gradual tightening cycle, and the vote at the 3-member Committee is seen to be 7 to 2. At the same time, BoE should leave the QE total at GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases and GBP 10 bln for corporate bond purchases.

The data calendar this week is highlighted by monthly BoE Lending data (Monday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday),and the July PMI surveys (due from Wednesday through to Friday). Of these, Gfk Consumer Confidence for July to hold at -9, the same as in June, while the Manufacturing PMI expected (Wednesday) at 54.0 in the headline after 54.4 in June, and the Services PMI (Friday)at 54.7 after 55.1 in the month prior.

Japan: There will be a lot of interest in the BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) given recent news reports of a policy tweak to its yield curve management (YCC) strategy. Worries that such a move could be an early warning of a shift away from uber-accommodation saw JGB yield spike higher, which forced BoJ to step in and offer to buy an unlimited amount of paper. BoJ is not expected to suggest a more hawkish stance is on the way. As for data, June Unemployment (Tuesday) is expected steady at 2.2%, with the job offers to seekers ratio unchanged at 1.60. Preliminary June Industrial Production (Tuesday) should fall 1.0% m/m from the previous -0.2% reading. July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is forecast little changed at 43.5 from 43.6. Also, June housing starts and construction spending (Tuesday) with the former seen contracting at a 2.0% y/y rate, from 1.3% previously. The final July Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in falling to 52.0 from 53.0. It was 2.1 a year ago. July auto sales are also due Wednesday.

Australia: The Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to rise 1.0% in June after the 3.2% drop in May. The Trade Balance (Thursday) is seen improving to A$1.1 bln in June from A$0.8 bln in May. Retail Sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.4% in June, matching the 0.4% growth pace (m/m, sa) in May. RBA is uncharacteristically silent until the August 7 meeting.

New Zealand: The Employment report (Wednesday) is expected to show a 0.7% gain in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% improvement in Q1. A 4.4% unemployment rate is anticipated, which would match the jobless rate from Q1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

[HFM]

Date : 31st July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st July 2018.



FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: As of 5:33 GMT, 10-year JGB yields had dropped -3.4 bp to 0.057% after BoJ left policy on hold and pledged to keep rates steady for an “extended period of time”. The forward guidance aside there were also tweaks including more flexibility in bond operations and a reduction in reserves subject to negative interest rates. Meanwhile the inflation forecast was cut. 10-year Treasury yields fell -3.5 bp to 2.939% in a tandem move and long yields also headed south in China. Despite the drop in yields, Topix and Nikkei are down -0.92% and -0.16% respectively, with tech stocks hit by disappointing results from Samsung and a slump in large US names, although US futures are mostly moving higher now. Oil prices are down on the day and the September WTI future is trading at USD 69.84 per barrel.

FX Update: The Yen looks to be coming back under pressure as the early European interbank crowd start to make their presence felt. USDJPY has lifted back above 111.30, returning focus back on the post-BoJ announcement high that was pegged at 111.43 (which is a 1-week peak). The AUDJPY cross is showing the biggest movement out of the main currencies we keep tabs, with a gain of just over 0.5%. BoJ announced steps to add flexibility in its stimulus program but pledged to keep rates low for an “extended period of time” while trimming inflation forecasts. The main takeaway for markets is that the policy tweak was less significant than a recent Reuters report, which cited unnamed sources had suggested. The tweak, lifted Japanese stocks while driving JGB yields and the Yen lower. Elsewhere, EURUSD ground out a three-session high (by just 1 pip, according to our data), at 1.1719, which has reflected a moderate-but-broad softening bias of the Dollar.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• German Labor Data- Expectations – A further decline is expected in German jobless number by -4K, which would leave the July seasonally adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 5.2%.

• Eurozone Q2 GDP – Expectations – Preliminary Eurozone GDP report for the Q2 is expected to accelerate to 0.5% q/q from 0.4%.

• Eurozone Unemployment & Prel. CPI – Expectations – Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.0% y/y in July, unchanged from the previous month and in line with the central bank’s upper limit for price stability. Eurozone June Unemployment meanwhile is also seen unchanged at 8.4%.

• US PCE and core, Personal Spending and CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – June Personal Income and Consumption should help fine tune Q2 GDP forecasts, and expected to rise 0.4%. Also, July Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 127.0, from a 126.4 level in June. Confidence measures continued to be well-supported by the strength in the economy and the tight labor market.

• Canada May GDP – Expectations – expected to expand 0.2% in May after the 0.1% gain in April (m/m, sa). Weather knocked retail sales lower in April. A return to more normal weather in May corresponded with a rebound in retail sales, consistent with a strong rebound in total GDP. But downside risk is evident — oil refineries were shutdown in April and May, suggestive of a negative contribution from the mining, oil and gas sub-sectors.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 1st August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st August 2018.



FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: Bond markets are back under pressure and 10-year JGB yields erased yesterday’s decline and jumped 5.8 bp to 0.110% as markets test BoJ’s willingness to let the 10-year climb as high as 0.2%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 2.975%. The USD strengthened amid reports that the US is retching up its trade threat to propose raising its planned 10% tariffs on USD 200 bln in Chinese imports to 25%. This followed earlier source stories suggesting that the US and China were trying to restart talks. Concerns about US-China trade relations saw Chinese indices underperforming, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 down by -0.09% and -0.39% respectively, elsewhere markets moved mostly higher, led by Japanese indices, with the Topix rebounding 1.04%, as the Yen weakened against the Dollar and positive results from Apple Inc helped to stabilize tech stocks. US futures are now also mostly up, led by the NASDAQ, but European futures are under pressure in opening trade, as the BoE meeting comes into view amid the wide rise in yields and concerns about US-China trade relations. Oil prices are down on the day and the September WTI future is trading at USD 68.42 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded moderately firmer into the London interbank open, with the USDIndex showing a 0.2% gain at 94.65, a 2-day high. EURUSD concurrently posted a 2-day low, at 1.1675, which is near the midway mark of a broadly sideways range that’s been evolving since early June. USDJPY rose for a second day and printed a 12-day high at 111.98. PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate higher once again, to 6.8293, which is the lowest for the Yuan since May 2017, after 6.8165 yesterday. The Trump administration said that it is thinking of hiking the 10% tariff in place on $200 bln worth of Chinese imports to 25%, which looks like a ploy ahead of a recommencement of trade talks. In data, Japan’s final manufacturing PMI for July was unexpectedly revised higher, to 52.3 from 51.6 reported in the flash estimate, but this still marked a slowing in trend while the pace of expansion in new orders dropped off notably. China’s July manufacturing, meanwhile, undershot expectations at 50.8, down from 51.5, with weakness blamed on the Sino – US trade standoff. Focus today will be on PMI releases in Europe and North America. The Fed will today conclude its 2-day FOMC policy meeting today, which should be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to policy and only minor changes likely on the statement compared to the Fed’s June policy statement.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone & German Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – The EU Manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at 55.1, in line with the preliminary number, while the German one is expected to remain unchanged at 57.3.

• UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipated at 54.0 in the headline (median 54.2) after 54.4 in June.

• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – The manufacturing ISM is projected to fall to 59.0 in July, from June’s 60.2, and down only slightly from the 14-year high of 60.8 from February, and would still reflect a robust rate of expansion.

• Canada Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –The Markit manufacturing PMI for July may show some slippage in activity after climbing 0.9 points to a record high of 57.1 in June, with strength in new orders.

• FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate – Fed is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, with the announcement set for today at 18:00 GMT.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 2nd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2018.



FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Risk aversion intensified during the Asian session, which gave a fresh boost to global bond markets. 10-year Bund yields fell to a low of 0.4619% in opening trade and is currently down -0.7 bp, versus a -2.2 bp decline in 10-year Treasury yields and a -0.3 bp dip in 10-year JGB yields. Stock markets sold off in Asia, led by mainland Chinese bourses, US stock futures are also heading south and, for now, trade jitters have moved firmly back to the forefront as the earnings season continues. The Fed did the expected yesterday and left rates on hold, while laying the ground for a September move. The focus now turns to BoE, which is expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp today. The calendar also has Eurozone PPI, the UK Construction PMI as well as bond sales in France and Spain.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer against most currencies and more than reversed initial declines that were seen after the largely as-expected Fed policy announcement yesterday. The upgrade in the Fed’s assessment of the economy to “strong” — from merely “solid” in the June statement — provided reason to buy the Greenback on dips. The USDIndex posted a 3-day higher, while EURUSD concurrent pushed lower, to a 4-day low of 1.1640. USDJPY was once again an exception to the broader Dollar theme, with the pair settling in a narrow range centred around 111.60 so far today, holding well within the bounds of yesterday’s range, though EUR-JPY and most other Yen crosses ebbed to 2- or 3-day lows, reflecting an underlying bid for the Japanese currency. This came concomitantly with the 10-year JGB yield rising to an 18-month high near 0.15%, pushing towards BoJ’s new 0.2% upside limit to its yield-curve control policy, though these moves stalled after BoJ member Amamiya in a speech today, reminded markets that the central bank will buy JGBs if yields rise rapidly, and that “powerful easing” remains appropriate as it will take time for the 2% inflation target to be achieved. Another incentive to buy Yen has been a fresh wobble in global stock markets, with the Trump administration confirming reports from late Tuesday that it is considering rising tariffs on $200 bln worth of Chinese imports, seen as a bargaining ploy by Trump ahead of Washington and Beijing’s return to the negotiations table, though China has returned fire by accusing the US of blackmailing.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

• UK Construction PMI – Expectations – Is projected to fall to 52.8 in July, from June’s 53.1.

• BoE Monetary Policy & Rate Decision – Expectations – BoE expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp to 0.75%.

• BoE Inflation Report – BoE should leave the QE total at GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases and GBP 10 bln for corporate bond purchases

• BoE Gov. Carney Speech at 11:30 GMT

• US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – a 220k increase in unemployment claims is expected.

Support and Resistance levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.