HFM Posted April 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Date : 6th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th April 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.2 bp at 0.507% in early trade, trailing Treasuries, which are down -1.8 bp at 2.814%. European stock futures are selling off, led by the German DAX future, which is down -0.9%, in the wake of a sell off in U.S. futures after Trump threatened additional USD 100 bln worth of China tariffs. China was quick to threaten retaliation, and while reports of the willingness to talk on the side of the U.S. helped to lift Asian markets off early lows, sentiment remains fragile. The Nikkei closed with a loss of -0.36% in the end, the ASX was unchanged at the close, while the Hang Seng outperformed in catch up trade, after coming back from the holidays. Weaker than expected German production data at the start of the session did nothing to lift sentiment, leaving markets to mull trade developments ahead of key U.S. payroll data in the PM session.FX Update: The dollar weakened and then firmed during the pre-London open session in Asia, with markets roiled by Trumpβs threat for further tariffs against China and a retaliatory pledge to fight back by Beijing before finding some solace form a Reuters report citing a U.S. official saying that Washington was willing to negotiate if China βis serious.β USDJPY recouped to the mid 107.0s after logging a low of 106.99. The pair has remained below the six-week high posted yesterday at 107.49, which capped a three-day run higher. EURUSD traded lower after posting an intraday peak at 1.2260, logging a low of 1.2227, but the pair remain above yesterdayβs low at 1.2218. Asian stocks lifted out of intraday lows, though European and U.S. equity index futures are firmly down, with Eurostoxx futures down 0.8% and S&P 500 futures off by over 1%. The offshore CNY extended lower, making $6.3043 today, with the 0.7% loss this week in the Chinese currency marking the biggest weekly decline since last October.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today* Canadian Employment DataΒ β the employment report, is expected to show a 25.0k in March after the 15.4k gain in February and 88.0k plunge in January. The unemployment rate is seen holding at a 40-year low 5.8%. Average hourly wages are projected to gain 0.3% in March (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% gain in February, boosting the annual growth rate to 3.4% in March from 3.1%. That would be firmest annual growth rate since the matching pace in November of 2015.* US NFP dataβ 193K increase is anticipated after the stellar 313k February surge. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 4.0%.*Β US Average Hourly EarningsΒ βAverage hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% after the tepid 0.1% prior gain, which calmed inflation anxiety that followed the strong 0.3% and 0.4% respective gains in January and December.* BOE Gov Carney & Fed Chair Powell SpeechesSupport and Resistance levelsΒ Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Date : 9th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th April 2018.Main Macro Events This WeekIt was a tumultuous first week of the quarter that has left the markets caught between more truculent tweets on trade from President Trump, and slightly more diplomatic messages from his advisers. Predictably China countered with $50 bln in tariffs of their own against a variety of U.S. imports, while the White House threatened to lump on another $100 bln tariffs to the $50 bln already on the table. Fed Chairman Powell remained bullish on the economy in his speech on the outlook, suggesting βgradualismβ remained intact, while in Q&A he felt it was premature to draw implications from the tariff threats either for inflation or growth.United States: The calendar will home back in on inflation stats for March in a timely fashion, hot on the heels of the 0.3% uptick on average hourly earnings embedded in the March payrolls report. PPI is forecast (Tuesday) rising 0.2% in March, though the annual pace will speed up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y. The core PPI is seen rising 0.2% as well versus 0.2% previously, with a steady 2.5% y/y. Wholesale sales are projected (Tuesday) to increase 0.6% in February vs -1.1% in January, while inventories are seen 0.2% firmer. The MBA mortgage market report is out (Wednesday), along with overall March CPI expected to edge up 0.1% vs 0.2%, with core CPI seen up 0.2%, as was the case in February. Annual rates should move a tad higher too, with the headline pace seen at 2.4% from 2.2% y/y, while the core rate firms to 2.1% from 1.8%.Β This will be the first 2-handle since March 2017, but it wonβt trigger a response from the FOMC as CPI is not the Fedβs preferred measure.Β The Treasury budget deficit (Wednesday) may widen to $186 bln in March from $176 bln year-ago levels. Import prices are forecast (Thursday) to increase 0.4% in March versus Februaryβs 0.4%, while export prices may rise 0.2%, the same as in February. Initial jobless claims are presumed to correct back down 17k to 225k for the week ended April 7 (Thursday). Rounding out the week (Friday) are Michigan sentiment and the Fedβs JOLTS job openings.Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes will be highlights this week after the βgradualistβ tone from Chairman Powell in Fridayβs speech set the stage for steady policy near term. There are several Fedspeakers this week, but none are voters. HawkΒ KaplanΒ will be in Beijing and will be speakingΒ Monday,Β The doveΒ KashkariΒ will do another moderated Q&AΒ Thursday.Β Rosengren, Bullard,Β andKaplanΒ will also be on the wires onΒ FridayΒ the 13th. The FOMC minutes to Powellβs first meeting in March as Chairman could be interesting.EarningsΒ seasonΒ kicks off again fromΒ ThursdayΒ β Fastenal and BlackRock and then a rash of financial firms β Citigroup, First Republic Bank, Infosys, JP Morgan Chase, PNC Financial, Wells Fargo onΒ Friday.Β Expectations are for strong results, and possible upside potential as the S&P 500 and the DJIA30 ended the week close to their 200 day moving averages.Β Canada: The calendar is headlined by the BoCβs Q1 Business Outlook Survey (Monday), expected to reveal some slippage in business sentiment, a tighter capacity backdrop, increased labour shortages but still well contained inflation expectations. In other words, the report will be supportive of no change in the 1.25% rate setting next week. Housing starts (Monday) are projected to fall to 220.0k in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values are expected to dip 1.0% in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The new housing price index is seen falling 0.1% in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is dueΒ Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 3.0% m/m decline anticipated, as the rate of contraction moderates after the -6.5% fall in February and record 14.5% plunge in January.Europe:Β Light calendar with mainly final inflation data for March, which are unlikely to hold major surprises. Expect HICP rates to be confirmed at 1.7% for France (Thursday), 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), 1.5% for German HICP (Friday) and 1.3% for Spain (Friday), which should leave the Eurozone HICP (due the following week) at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February. German trade data for February (Monday), as well as Eurozone trade which could well attract more interest than usual amid the ongoing trade tensions. Expectations are for a slight rise in German exports of 0.2% m/m, after the -0.5% m/m drop in January.ECBspeakΒ will be closely monitored. Officials are likely to continue to strike a balance with hawkish comments fromΒ WeidmannΒ (Thursday) countered by softer tones from other central bankers scheduled to speak, includingΒ Draghi(Wednesday) andΒ ConstancioΒ (Monday). The ECB also publishes the minutes of the March policy meeting, when the central bank decided to finally remove the easing bias on rates from the policy guidance.Japan:Β The February current account surplus (Monday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,000 bln from 607.4 bln previously. March consumer confidence (Monday) is seen improving to 44.6 from 44.3. February machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 4.0% m/m from up 8.2%, while March PPI is forecast to slip to 1.9% y/y from 2.5%. The impact of the firmer JPY on inflation was likely offset by firmer crude oil prices. March bank loan figures are dueΒ WednesdayΒ and finally a speech for the BOJβs Kuroda is set forΒ Thursday.UK:Β Fundamental leads have been blurred by inclement weather in the last data month, which largely accounted for the big misses in last weekβs March PMI survey outcomes. The calendar this week kicks off with the BRC retail sales report for March (Monday), with expectations of a 0.1% headline decline in the same-store figure. Industrial production for February is also up (Wednesday), with expectations of rises of 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y. respectively). Trade data for February is also due (alsoΒ Wednesday), where forecasts are for a GBP 11.9 deficit in the visible goods balance.China:Β Release March loan growth and new yuan loans (likelyΒ Tuesday), with the former seen at an unchanged 12.8% y/y rate, and the latter at CNY 1,000 bln from 839.3 bln previously. March CPI (Wednesday) likely slipped to a 2.5% y/y pace after almost doubling to 2.9% in February from 1.5% in January. March PPI (Wednesday) is forecast at 3.3% y/y from 3.7%. The March trade report (Friday) will be of interest given all the fuss over trade and tariffs, though it wonβt show any real effects. It should reveal a narrowed surplus of $29.0 bln from $33.7 bln in February.Australia:Β Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on βRegional Variation in a National Economy.β The Financial Stability Review is dueΒ Friday. Economic data is thin this week, but has housing investment (Thursday), expected to dip 0.5% in February after the 1.1% decline in January. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Date : 10th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2018.FX News TodayAsian Market Wrap:Β Conciliatory words on trade from Chinaβs President Xi Jinping, who pledged greater openness in sectors from banking to auto manufactures while warning against a return to a βCold War mentalityβ helped to calm nerves and underpinned stocks, while weighing on safe haven assets, especially in the U.S.. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.025%, 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.6 bp and back above the 2.8% mark. Stock markets meanwhile have moved broadly higher, Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 0.33% respectively, the Hang Seng outperformed again and gained 1.12% so far and the CSI 300 is up 0.48%. U.S. stock futures are rallying and up more than 1% across, Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ, with the latter outperforming. Oil prices also benefited from the risk on environment and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel. An all round risk on environment, then, at least for now.FX Update:Β USDJPY edged out a two-session high following a fresh bout of general yen weakness. Chinese President Xiβs keynote speech earlier mollified investor anxieties by de-ratcheting the trade war rhetoric by pledging that Chinese economy will open up and will lower import tariffs on vehicles, and although details were limited, this managed to lift stock markets in Asia, along with U.S. and European stock index futures. The Nikkei 225 gained by 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures were showing a 1.1% advance. The yen weakened against this backdrop as safe haven positions unwound. USD-JPY clocked a two-session high at 107.24 before settling slightly off here. The pair has support at 106.77-80.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events TodayΒ Β USA PPI βΒ It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 2.6% 3 from 2.5% last time. MoM figures are expected to see the headline slip to 0.1% from 0.2% and the key Core figure remain unchanged at 0.2%. CAD Housing StartsΒ β Are expected to fall to 220.0k unit pace in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values, also due Tuesday, are expected to dip 1.0% (m/m, sa) in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The permits and starts reports lead a full week of housing data. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen falling 0.1% (m/m, sa) in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 18.0% y/y decline anticipated in March following the 16.9% y/y drop in February. Support and Resistance levelsΒ Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2018 Β Date : 17th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2018.European Outlook:Β Stocks in Asia traded narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up a mere 0.02%, the ASX up 0.07% and Hang Seng and CSI 300, which tanked yesterday, underperforming once again and down -0.40% and -0.87% respectively, despite as expected GDP numbers out of China. Chinaβs GDP grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 following the identical 6.8% y/y rise in Q4. GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures as comments from Praet seemed to confirm that the ECB is not ready to commit to an end date for QE just year. UK100 futures meanwhile are heading south ahead of labour market data. The calendar today also has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to correct further.Trade jitters and geopolitical risks continue to hang over markets and 10-year JGB yields are little changed at 0.30%, while the 10-year Treasury yield up 0.6 bp at 2.832%, as U.S. stock futures move higher.FX Update:Β A dollar softening theme has been prevailing, with EURUSD printing a three-week high just above 1.2380 and USDJPY pushing to three-day lows below 107.00. AUDUSD has also turned higher after weakening in the wake of the release of the RBAβs minutes to its April policy meeting, which was deemed as showing board members as being relatively less optimistic on the economy than before, helping cement the view that the central bank will likely be on hold through to 2019. There was a mix of other news, including as-expected GDP data out of China, of 6.8% y/y in Q1, an unexpected downward revision in the final release of Japanese February industrial production, to 0.0% m/m from the preliminary estimate of 4.1% m/m, and a report that North and South Korea are apparently set on discussing an official end to the war. Market participants are also gearing up for the meeting between Trump and Abe this week, which is expected to be conciliatory in tone as Trumpβs face-to-face meetings with world leaders tends to be, especially with his softening tone on trade with China and NAFTA. Cable has punched out a fresh post-Brexit vote high above 1.4350, today marking the seventh consecutive higher high with markets expecting a perky wages reading in todayβs labour market report, which along with tomorrowβs inflation data should seal expectations for the BoE to hike in May.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events TodayΒ UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)Β β German ZEW βΒ expected to fall further, with heightened market volatility likely adding to the error margin for the forecasts. A reading of 2 in April is expected, down from 5.1 in March, while median forecast predicts a dip into negative territory, which would indicate that pessimists outnumber optimists. Anything short of a major surprise to the upside will add to concerns that growth momentum is already starting to slow down, while the ECB is mulling exit steps. Canadian Manufacturing SalesΒ β February manufacturing is seen rebounding 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 1.0% drop in January. US Industrial Production βΒ a 0.4% gain after surging 0.9% in February.Β Capacity utilizationΒ is projected t 77.9% from 77.7%. Risk to production is to the upside, however, given strong factory employment, and still robust manufacturing ISM and PMI data. FOMC Member Williams, Harker and Bostic Speak, along with Fedβs Quarles Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2018 Date : 18th April 2018.MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2018.European Outlook:Β The recovery on global stock markets continued during the Asian session, after a good start to the U.S. earnings season. Bonds rallied in Asia, and Chinaβs 10-year yield dropped more than 14 bp after the Peopleβs Bank of china cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks to bolster credit amid a crackdown on shadow lending. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.0275, while 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 p at 2.840%. Early signs that the Trump-Abe summit wonβt lead to new trade demands from the U.S. helped to bolster confidence and the Nikkei is up 1.585, the ASX 200 0.29%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 0.87% and 0.47%. Chinaβs automakers were hit by plans to allow foreign companies to take full ownership of their local ventures. U.S. futures are posting further gains. Oil prices are higher and WTI future is trading at USD 67.12 per barrel.Todayβs calendar has the final reading of Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is expected to be confirmed at 1.4% y/y, while U.K. CPI is seen holding steady at 2.7%.FX Update:Β Narrow ranges have mostly prevailed into the London interbank open, with most of the main dollar pairings holding well within their respective ranges from yesterday. This has been seen amid an ongoing recovery rally in global stock markets as trade and geopolitical concerns continued to abate. EURUSD has held a narrow range in the upper 1.2300s, below the three-week high that was seen yesterday at 1.2414. Cable and AUDUSD have been similarly directionally challenged. USDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising some 30 pips in making a peak of 107.38, breaching yesterdayβs peak on route but falling short of Mondayβs peak by 1 pip.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events TodayΒ UK Retail sales βΒ a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior. Β UK Retail sales βΒ a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior. UK CPI βΒ CPI expected to remain unchanged 2.7%, above the BoEβs 2.0% target. Eurozone CPIΒ β widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February, but this is largely due to base effects from energy and food prices, as well as the earlier timing of Easter. BoC Statement & Conference βΒ projections remain for no change to the 1.25% rate setting, along with a cautiously constructive growth outlook salted with trade uncertainty. An as-expected outing would maintain the base-case for further gradual rate hikes this year. The BoC will also release the Monetary Policy Report. Fedβs Quarles, & William Dudley Speeches Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria PichidiMarket AnalystHotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2018 Date : 19th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Outlook:Β The global stock market stabilisation continued in Asia and volatility is receding as optimism in the global growth outlook returns following a cautiously optimistic Beige Book from the Fed.Fedβs Beige Book said economic activity remained βmodestβ to βmoderateβ across all 12 Districts. Thatβs pretty much been the characterization for several years, and those were the adverbs that described many sectors. Energy companies are underpinned by rising oil prices as inventory levels fall. 10-year Treasury yields meanwhile are up from earlier lows, but still down -0.4 bp on the day at 2.869%, while 10-year JGB yields rose 0.3 bp to 0.031%. Elsewhere in Asia long yields are also higher as equity markets recover. The Nikkei gained 0.23%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied a further 1.3% and 1.1% amid rumours of state intervention in China. U.S. stock futures are also in the green, with NASDAQ futures outperforming. The WTI future is trading at USD 68.94 per barrel.Todayβs data calendar has Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as U.K. retail sales numbers.FX Update:Β The dollar has been trading near net steady so far today, while yen weakness remained a theme. EURUSD has settled in the upper 1.2300s, holding below the three-week high seen earlier in the week at 1.2414. USDJPY edged out a three-session high at 107.51, EURJPY a two-month high, just above 133.00, while AUDJPY managed a to post a four-session peak. The generally more risk positive backdrop has continued to weigh on the yen as residual safe haven premium unwinds and markets return focus to bullish fundamental arguments for USDJPY (specifically yield differentials, which have markedly gapped in the dollarβs favour this year). Following the Trump-Abe meeting this week, Trump said he wants a bilateral trade deal with Japan, and there was reportedly no discussion of currency levels between the two leaders. On the trade front, Chinaβs commerce ministry repeated today that it is prepared to respond to U.S. trade threats. The Australian dollar came under pressure following a miss in Australian employment data before quickly turning higher. AUDUSD lifted out of its 0.7773 low to post a five-week high at 0.7812.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β UK Retail sales βΒ a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior. US Unemployment Claims βΒ expected to fall slightly at 230K from 233K reported last week. US Philly Fed Manufacturing IndexΒ β Aprilβs Philly Fed index is expected to slip to 21.0 after falling 3.5 points to 22.3 in March. FOMC Brainard, UKβs MPC Cunliffe, Fedβs Quarles, & FOMC Mester Speak Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 Date : 20th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th April 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Outlook:Β SNBβs Jordan sees no need for change in policy. The Swiss central bank President told Bloomberg last night that βthere is no need to do anything regarding monetary policy at this morningβ. Speaking after the CHF broke through the 1.20 per euro mark for the first time since the SNB gave up that ceiling, Jordan said the francβs drop goes in the βright directionβ but added that the currency is still considered a haven and the situation βfragileβ and prone to change. So the SNB βremains very prudentβ and βconvinced that the current monetary policy is still necessaryβ. Further confirmation that the SNB is firmly on hold while watching also the ECBβs move very closely. If and when the ECB finally starts to reign in its support it will also increase the room for the SNB to manoeuvre. Bloomberg polls predict the first rate hike from the SNB in the last quarter of 2019.US Updates:Β Revealed a Philly Fed rise to 23.2 in April and a 1k initial claims downtick to a slightly-elevated 232k in the BLS survey week of April. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed beat estimates with only a small April drop to 59.7 from a 45-year high of 61.8 in March, thus outperforming Mondayβs Empire State where we saw an April drop to 15.8 from 22.5 with an ISM-adjusted decline to 56.2 from 57.3. For claims, the trend remains tight despite modestly higher readings over the last three weeks, as the moving Easter holiday and school breaks often distort April claims. We still expect a 210k April nonfarm payroll rise. The weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index hit a third consecutive new cycle-high in mid-April of 58.1, and leading indicators rose 0.3% in March to leave a 22-month stretch without a decline, and a rise in the 6-month annualized reading to a lofty 8.8%Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β CAD Retail sales βΒ Expectations are for an improvement of 0.5% in February after the 0.3% gain in January. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected at +0.3% after the 0.9% gain in January. The CPIβs gasoline price index edged 0.7% lower in February after jumping 3.2% in January following a 3.3% drop in December. % m/m inline with expectations CAD CPI βΒ Expect March CPI, due Friday, to expand 0.4% (m/m) after the 0.6% surge in February. The annual growth rate is projected at 2.5% in March, up from the 2.2% y/y pace seen in February that was the fasted rate of CPI growth since the 2.4% pace in October of 2014. The BoC took the recent CPI climb in stride, viewing it as in line with their outlook. The temporary factors that had been restraining inflation, the Bank explained, βhave largely dissipated, as expected.β The close to 2% core inflation rates are consistent with an βeconomy operating with little slack.β Inflation in 2018 is expected to be modestly higher than they expected in January, but due to the transitory impact of higher gas prices and recent minimum wage increases. See the preview. IMF Speeches β Saunders (BOE) Weidmann (Buba) Williams (FOMC) Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Β Date : 23rd April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd April 2018.Main Macro Events This WeekThereβs a lot on this weekβs calendar to be digested, including a mass of earnings, heavy Treasury supply, and important data releases. Thereβs a lot of data, and especially sentiment numbers, that support healthy economic growth ahead. Fiscal stimulus should also be very supportive, not to mention rising global growth (remember the IMF forecasts growth at 3.9% for this year and next). There are a couple of important caveats to that outlook, however. One is the maturity of the U.S. expansion (106 months). Itβs getting quite long in the tooth and next month will be the second longest on record, beating the boom in the 1960s. And if it survives until next year, it will become the longest expansion on record. And while we donβt expect a trade war, it is a risk.United States: Earnings will be the focal point most of the week as all sectors of the S&P will be well represented from key companies. With almost one-fifth of the S&P having reported, 79% have beaten estimates. As for supply, thereβs over $230 bln in bills and short dated coupons on tap. And for data, itβs the Advance Q1 GDP and ECI (bothΒ Friday)Β that will take top billing, but thereβs also a number of housing, manufacturing, and confidence reports. Consumer confidenceΒ (Tuesday)Β likely declined to 126.0 in April, from Marchβs 127.7. As for Michigan sentimentΒ (Friday),Β a final April reading of 98.0 is expected, little-changed from the preliminary. Though expected to slip in April, both sentiment indicators remain at lofty levels. Confidence reached a 17-year high of 130.0 in February and the Michigan March reading was at a 14-year high. Durable goods ordersΒ (Thursday)Β are forecast rising 1.5% in March on top of the 3.0% jump in February, with shipments and inventories also expected to be up strongly at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. March existing home salesΒ (Monday)Β should rise 0.7% to a 5.580 mln rate, following a strong 3.0% gain in February to 5.540 mln. New home salesΒ (Tuesday)Β are also expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February.Canada: The week in Canada begins with an appearance by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins in front of the House of Commons Standing Committee on FinanceΒ (Monday).Β The opening statement will be available on the BoCβs site at 15:30 ET. As always, central bank enthusiast can listen in on the Parliament of Canadaβs website. The Parliament appearance will presumably reiterate the outlook presented in the announcement and MPR. Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce onΒ Wednesday.As for data, wholesale shipment valuesΒ (Monday)Β are expected to improve 0.5% in February after the 0.1% gain in January. The report is the final input in the monthly GDP projection, tracking a 0.2% gain in February GDP (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% drop in January. An estimate for real Q1 GDP is for a 1.5% gain (q/q, saar) after the 1.7% increase in Q4, which would be just above the BoCβs 1.3% Q1 estimate from the April MPR and hence have little impact on the near term policy outlook. February average weekly earningsΒ (Thursday)Β are seen rising 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% increase in January. The Bank was constructive on wage growth last week, observing that the continued pick-up is βas expected, even factoring out recent minimum wage increases in Ontario and Alberta.β The April CFIB sentiment indicator will be released onΒ Thursday.Europe:Β The focus this week is on the ECB meeting, which is widely expected to keep rates and guidance unchanged at the April meeting amid ongoing volatility on markets and lingering trade and geopolitical concerns. Draghi will likely sound pretty much like Praet on April 17: Optimistic on growth and the medium term inflation outlook but not convinced yet that inflation developments have met criteria for sustained adjustment. So the message remains for now that an ample degree of stimulus remains necessary and the ECB must be βpatient, persistent and prudentβ.It also a bumper weak on the data front, with PMI, IFO and ESI Economic Confidence taking centre stage. France and Spain are the first major Eurozone countries to release Q1 GDP numbers and Spain will publish the first preliminary inflation reading for April. So plenty of relevant data, most of which is likely to be bond friendly, but unlikely to solve the question whether the current warning signals in indicators are due to one off factors, or the first sign of a broader and quicker slowdown in growth momentum. The long and harsh winter, coupled with widespread flue outbreaks and unusually large numbers of sick days as well as the earlier timing of Easter this year, has left its mark on data through Q1 and likely to also still have an impact on April figures.Preliminary PMI readingsΒ (Tuesday)Β are seen falling across the board, but expected to still point to a robust pace of expansion in manufacturing and services sectors. The German Ifo business confidence indicatorΒ (Tuesday)comes in a new format this month as the institute has changed the base care tweaked the methodology and also included the services sector now, which so far has been reported separately. This makes forecasts and comparisons more tricky, although the Ifo institute has provided a backward time series. For the new indicator, a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.6 from 100.1 in the previous month. Finally Eurozone ESI economic confidenceΒ (Friday)Β is seen falling to 112.2 from 112.6 in March, with both services and manufacturing confidence expected to decline further. Data may be showing first signs of a slowdown, but the labor market is a lagging indicator and we expect a renewed decline in the German jobless numberΒ (Friday)Β of -5K in April, with the unemployment rate likely to hold at a record low of 5.3%.UK:Β The calendar this week brings the CBI trends surveys, consumer confidence and the first estimate for Q1 GDP, along with monthly government borrowing figures. The April CBI industrial trends surveyΒ (Tuesday)Β expected to come in with a +4 reading in the total orders headline, while the CBIβs distributive sales survey for the same monthΒ (Thursday)Β should post an improvement to a -2 reading in the headline realized sales figure after -8 in the month prior. The April Gfk consumer confidence (alsoΒ Thursday)Β anticipated at -7 , which would be unchanged from the previous month. As for GDPΒ (Friday),Β growth rates expected at 0.3% q/q and 1.4% after respective Q4 figures of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y.Japan:Β The BoJ meets (Thursday, Friday)Β and no policy changes are expected. This meeting will be the first for the two new deputy governors, Masayoshi Amamiya and Masazumi Wakatabe, and it will be interesting to ascertain their leanings. The March services PPIΒ (Tuesday)Β is seen rising to a 0.7% y/y clip from 0.6%. The remaining releases are all dueΒ Friday.Β The February all-industry index is forecast bouncing 1.0% after the -1.8% drop in January. March unemployment rate is seen steady at 2.5%, while the job offers/seekers ratio should stay unchanged at 1.58. March industrial production is penciled in at 1.0% y/y from the prior unchanged reading. March retail sales are expected to post a 1.6% y/y clip, slightly down from the previous 1.7% increase. March housing starts and construction orders are also due.Australia:Β The Q1 CPIΒ (Tuesday)Β is expected to rise 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q4. The CPI is projected to expand at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q1 from the 1.9% y/y growth rate in Q4. Trade prices are dueΒ Thursday,with the export price index expected to rise to a 4.0% pace in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 2.8% rise in Q4. The import price index is anticipated at 1.0% in Q1, half of the 2.0% rate in Q4. The Q1 PPI is dueΒ Friday.Β Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Kent (Financial Markets) speaksΒ TuesdayΒ at the Housing Industry Association (HIA) Breakfast in Sydney on βThe limits of Interest-Only Lending.β Next week brings the RBAβs meeting.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest FXTechstrategy Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 GBPUSD: Weakens On Further Bear Pressure GBPUSD: The pair saw further weakness following its past week losses. Support lies at the 1.3950 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3900 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3850 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.3800 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.4000 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.4050 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.4100 level followed by the 1.4150 level. On the whole, GBPUSD remains biased to downside on further weakness. Β Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest andengireng Posted April 24, 2018 Report Share Posted April 24, 2018 Β EURUSD is depressed and moves to test the support area. Based on technical analysis, as forex trading strategy today you can wait for confirmation of sell signal if pull-back occurs to the reference area at the range 1.22369, with potential target up to the range 1.21886. If the pull-back does not occur, a break of 1.21800 potentially will push euro lower up to the range 1.21500. Be careful if the resistance at 1.22500 breaks validly because it will turn the intraday bias to bullish and potentially will lift the euro up to the range 1.23008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2018 Date : 24th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Outlook:Β Asian markets moved mostly higher overnight, following on from a positive session on Wall Street and amid ongoing USD strength with a weaker Yen underpinning a 0.75% rise in the Nikkei. The Hang Seng is up 0.94%, the CSI 300 rallied 1.75% amid speculation that the government is considering easing some policies put in to limit the credit boom. The absence of any negative news on the trade front seems to have given stock markets some breathing space and U.S. futures are also up in tandem with U.K. futures. Oil prices are also up and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 69.14 per barrel. For now though bonds are getting a boost and stock markets are also higher, with most European futures posting gains in tandem with U.S. futures and after a positive session in Asia. Todayβs calendar focuses on confidence data out of France, Germany and the U.K.. The U.K. also has public finance data and Germany auctions 2-year Schatz notes.FX Update:Β The dollar posted fresh highs against the euro and yen, and many other currencies after a bout of demand in Asia, which extending a broad rally the greenback has been seeing against for over a week now. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) posted its highest level since the first week of January, at 91.07. EURUSD logged a 10-week low at 1.2184, though euro demand has subsequently fuelled a rebound to the 1.2220 area. USDJPY lifted for a sixth consecutive session, making a 10-week high at 108.87. EURJPY is also firmer, though has so far remained below the two-month high it saw last week. The gains in USDJPY have been concomitant with the U.S. T-note yield nearing the 3.0% level, which has been generating headlines, which comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.86% for the better, more than reversing the moderate loss seen yesterday. North Koreaβs Kim said that he would be willing to accept IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β German IFO βΒ The German Ifo business confidence indicator, due Tuesday, comes in a new format this month, which includes the services sector now. For the new indicator a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.5 from 100.1 in the previous month. However, after the better than expected PMI readings there is a bias to the upside to the numbers. In any case, we donβt expect the April round of survey indicators to really change the outlook for the ECB, which is seen on hold this week, with officials seeing scope to leave the final decision on the future of the QE program open until July, when the risks to the global outlook may have become a bit clearer and the decision is becoming urgent. UK Public Borrowing βΒ ExpectationsΒ βΒ at 1.6B pounds from -0.272B pounds last month. US Consumer confidenceΒ β likely declined to 126.0 in April, from Marchβs 127.7. US New home sales βΒ expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February. Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2018 Date : 25th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Outlook:Β 10-year Bund yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.623% in early trade, the 2-year is down -0.5 bp at -0.5685. 10-year Treasury yields pierced the 3% mark overnight, but have fallen back slightly to currently 2.998%, while yields moved broadly higher in Asia with the 10-year JGB up 1.2 bp at 0.054%. Stock markets headed south in Asia, following a weak close in the U.S. with concerns about the earnings outlook amid warnings on profit outlooks hit sentiment. With a lack of key data releases in Europe today the focus is on the ECB meeting tomorrow, where Draghi will likely see through the recent run of weak confidence data to keep the ECB on course to end net asset purchases by the end of the year, but repeat once again that inflation is not yet on a sustainable path higher, which means the ECB is not ready to commit just yet.FX Update:Β USDJPY lifted back above 109.00 from yesterdayβs correction low at 108.54, but has so far left yesterdayβs 10-week peak at 109.20 untroubled. Ditto for EURJPY. Stock markets in Asia have been broadly lower following declines on Wall Street, with investors digesting higher yields β the 10-year T-note finally touched the 3.0% level (and first time here since early 2017) β and doubts about earnings growth. The USA500 closed out yesterday with a 1.3% loss, while the Nikkie 225 was showing a 0.3% loss in the late PM Tokyo session. This backdrop has likely curtailed yen selling, according to market narratives. In data, Japanβs February industry activity index came in with 0.4% m/m growth, slightly below the median forecast for 0.5%. USDJPY has been trending higher for a month now, from sub-105.00 levels. The dynamic has been concomitant with rising U.S. yields, with looser fiscal policy having given added underpinning to Fed tightening expectations. This comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. Demand for foreign assets by Japanese life insurers has been a factor propping USDJPY up so far in the new fiscal year, while an abatement in concerns about trade tensions and cooling relations on the Korean peninsular have also been in the mix. Overall, we advise following the trend in USDJPY for now. Support comes in at 108.40-42.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Crude Oil Inventories β ExpectationsΒ β -2.043M Barrels from -1.1M last week BOC Gov Poloz & Wilkins speech βΒ Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday. Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2018 Date : 26th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th April 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Outlook:Β 10-year Bund yields down -0.2 bp at 0.627% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 0.3 bp at -0.564%. So a slight flattening of the yield curve, which mirrors developments in in the U.S.. Still, while 10-year Bund, JGB and Treasury yields are marginally down, they remain at high levels with the 10-year Treasury still holding above 3.0%. Stock markets meanwhile are struggling to come to terms with the prospect of yields rising amid signs of a slowdown in growth. Asian markets traded mixed and while NASDAQ futures got a lift from earnings reports, Dow Jones and USA500 futures are down. In Europe stock futures are moving higher, led by the GER30, amid reports that China will cut import duties on cars. Still, trading is likely to remain cautious ahead of the ECB meeting today. With Draghi widely expected to keep rates on hold, the focus will be on the presser and signs that the central bank is inching closer to a decision on QE. The Riksbank is also expected to keep rates steady. The calendar also has U.K. mortgage data and the CBI retailing survey. German consumer confidence at the start of the session fell back slightly β as expectedFX Update:Β The dollar has dipped after posting fresh highs versus the euro and yen, among other currencies. EURUSD posted an eight-week low at 1.2159 while US-JPY rose of an eighth consecutive day, making an 11-week high at 109.46. The move reflected ongoing dollar strength, although the yen has been among the leaders of the underperforming currencies over the last week, too. Loose fiscal policy and Fed tightening expectations have been providing the fundamental underpinnings of the dollarβs ascent, with flagging global stock markets an indirect positive. On the trade front, China said today that it will be cutting the levy on imported cars to about 10-15% from 25% currently. On the geopolitical front, focus is on what Trump decides with regard to the Iran nuclear deal.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β ECB βΒ The ECB is widely expected to keep rates and guidance unchanged at todayβs meeting. Draghi will likely sound pretty much like Praet on April 17. Cautiously optimistic on growth and the medium term inflation outlook β to keep a phasing out of QE this year in play, but not convinced yet that inflation developments have met criteria for sustained adjustment. US Labor Data β ExpectationsΒ β -Unemployment Claims expected slightly lower at 230K from 232K last week. US Durable Goods β Expectations βΒ rising to 1.5% in March , on top of the 3.0% jump in February, with shipments and inventories also expected to be up strongly at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. UK Gfk Consumer Confidence β Expectations βΒ at -7, which would be unchanged from the previous month. Japanese CPI, Labor Data and Retail Sales β Tokyo April CPI likely slipped to an 0.8% y/y clip from 1.0% overall, and on a core basis, rose to 0.9% y/y from 0.8%. MarchΒ unemployment rateΒ is seen steady at 2.5%, while the job offers/seekers ratio should stay unchanged at 1.58.Β March retail salesΒ are expected to post a 1.6% y/y clip, slightly down from the previous 1.7% increase. Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Date : 27th April 2018.MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th April 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Outlook:Β Bond as well as equity markets in Europe remain underpinned by a dovish leaving ECB presser yesterday and 10-year Bunds have dropped a further 1.6 bp this morning and are trading at 0.573%, the 2-year is down -0.1 bp at -0.581%, the 5-year Bobl is down -0.5 bp at -0.038%. Curve flattening trades are still at play and Bunds are outperforming Treasuries and JGBs as well as other Eurozone markets. European stock futures meanwhile are moving higher after a largely positive session in Asia as earnings reports underpin the tech sector in particular. Weaker than expected French GDP numbers only added support for bonds, but doesnβt seem to have dented sentiment on stock markets. The calendar is pretty packed today, with more GDP numbers out of the U.K. and Spain, as well as German jobless data and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment.FX Update:Β Dollar majors are at near net unchanged levels heading into the London interbank open. EURUSD late yesterday traded below 1.2100 for the first time in early January, extending the latest phase of losses which were seen in the wake of the dovish-tilting guidance of ECB President Draghi yesterday, following the central bankβs April policy review. Recent EURUSD losses have been driven mostly by dollar outperformance, underpinned by the mix of looser U.S. fiscal policy and Fed tightening, though the comparatively less hawkish/dovish stance of the ECB has been one of the bearish fundamental pillars. USDJPY has remained buoyant but below the 11-week high that was seen yesterday at 109.46. The BoJ left policy on hold at its policy review today, but it removed the timeframe to achieve CPI target following its policy review today. AUDUSD punched out a new four-month low at 0.7538. Data showing Chinese industrial profits at a 21-month low weighted on the AussieCharts of the DayMain Macro Events Today German Unemployment Data- ExpectationsΒ β a renewed decline in the German jobless number of -5K in April, with the unemployment rate likely to hold at a record low of 5.3%. UK GDP β ExpectationsΒ β growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.4% after respective Q4 figures of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y. Speeches out of ECB LautenschlΓ€ger, Merch, SNB Jordan, BoE Carney and MPC Haldane US GDP and PCE β Expectations βΒ Q1 GDP is expected to slow to a 2.1% rate of growth , after the 2.9% Q4 clip, with a moderation that extends the seasonal pattern of Q1 weakness. Q1 PCE is expected to slow to a 2.6% from 2.7% Q4. Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 Date : 30th April 2018.MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th April 2018.Main Macro Events This Week Much transpired over the past week that appears to have propped up flagging investor sentiment. There was the historic meeting and handshake between Korean leaders Moon and Kim. The 2.3% increase in Q1 GDP beat the 2.1% median forecast, which should assuage fears that growth has downshifted appreciably. Indeed, this expansion will become the second longest on record come May 1, breaking the 106-month expansion from the 1960s. Earnings have mostly come in strong, as expected, with Facebook +63% profits jump in particular overshadowing past data breach hijinx. They, and fundamentals, suggest there should be enough momentum in the economy to break the 120-month expansion record (covering 33 business cycles dating back to 1854).United States: The coming week is packed with top tier data and theΒ FOMC meeting, scheduled for May 1-2. The most visible reading on the economy will come from the employment report for April. Early estimates show another expected solid gain to start the second quarter. In addition to payrolls, readings on personal income and consumption should show healthy gains while producer sentiment should remain strong, and productivity predictably tepid. The trade deficit situation is estimated to improve after a substantial deterioration in Q4 and Q1 that partly reflected hurricane-related import strength.Β As for the FOMC, we expect the Committee to hold policy steady and postpone the next rate hike until in June. Top billing goes to the April payrolls reportΒ (Friday),Β expected to rise 210,000 in April , following a tepid and disappointing March gain of 103,000. Personal income is estimated to rise 0.4% in April(Monday),Β following similar gains over the last 3 months. Nominal consumption is estimated to rise 0.4% as well, resulting in a steady savings rate of 3.4%. Chicago PMI may nudge up to 58.0 in April from 57.4 and pending home sales are seen ticking up to 108.5 in March from 107.5. The ISM manufacturing index should decline to 58.5 in April from 59.3 in MarchΒ (Tuesday).Β The ADP employment survey is set to dip to 217k in April from 241kΒ (Wednesday).Initial jobless claims may back up 16k to 225k for the April 28 week(Thursday),Β up from 209k last week that marked the lowest level since December of 1969.Canada: The February GDPΒ (Tuesday)Β and March trade(Thursday)Β on tap. A rebound is expected in February GDP to an 0.1% gain after the 0.1% drop in January. March trade is expected to show further growth in exports, leaving a narrowing in the deficit to -C$2.5 bln from -C$2.7 bln. The industrial product price index is dueΒ TuesdayΒ while the April Ivey PMI is on tapΒ Friday.Β The Markit PMI for April is due outΒ Tuesday.Β Governor Poloz speaks onTuesday.Β His appearances at the House and Senate this week were consistent with a gradual data-driven approach to rate hikes.Europe:Β The Eurozone growth outlook is starting to look shaky, and while risks to the Q1 GDP number this week are to the downside, there is a lot of noise in the data at the moment, which means like the ECB we will have to wait some months to let the dust settle from weather-related disruptions. Still, the increasingly uncertain growth outlook is likely to only impact the rate outlook for next year, and the ECB remains on course to take out net asset purchases with a short taper in the last quarter of the year. This weekβs round of data releases is unlikely to add clarity and could start more quiet than usual as much of Europe is closedTuesday for Labour Day celebrations,Β which will prompt many to make a long weekend out of it. The calendar mainly focuses on the second wave of preliminary April inflation numbers and the first reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP, which it is seen decelerating to 0.4% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q4 last year β with a risk to the downside. Meanwhile, Final PMI readings are expectedΒ (Wednesday)Β to be confirmed at 56.0, and the services readingΒ (Friday)Β at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2, all still firmly above the 50 point no change mark. Data releases also include Eurozone PPI inflation and M3 money supply growth as well as German retail sales and the Eurozone unemployment rate, with the latter expected to hold steady at 8.5%. Germany auctions 5-year Bobls Wednesday, France sells bondsΒ ThursdayΒ and there is also ECB speak from Constancio and Coeure onΒ Thursday.UK:Β The calendar this week is highlighted by the PMI surveys along with monthly lending and money supply data from the BoE. The April manufacturing PMI surveyΒ (Tuesday)Β expected to come in at 54.8 after 55.1 in March, while April construction PMI(Wednesday)Β to rebound from the weather-affected 47.0 reading in March, and the April services PMI at 53.2 after 51.7 in March, which had also been a reading suppressed by bad weather.Japan:Β Japan is on holidayΒ Monday,Β withΒ TuesdayΒ bringing April auto sales. April consumer confidenceΒ (Wednesday)Β is expected to slip to 44.1 from 44.3. April Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI(Wednesday)Β should improve to 53.3 from 53.1.China:Β The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMIΒ (Wednesday)Β should rise to 51.3 from 51.0.Australia:Β The RBAβs meetingΒ (Tuesday)Β is expected to reveal no change in the 1.50% policy setting. The March trade report(Thursday)Β is projected to show an improvement to a A$1.0 bln surplus from A$0.8 bln in February. Building approvalsΒ (Thursday)are seen rebounding 2.0% m/m in March after the 6.2% drop in February.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Β DateΒ : 1st May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st May 2018.FX News TodayFX Update & Outlook: The RBA left rates as expected unchanged at 1.5% and there was also little changed in the statement. However, the statement did add a growth target of 3% for 2019 and 2018. With many markets closed today the Asian session is low on liquidity and the USD remains relatively well bid although, Sterling and the Euro are off recent lows. The AUD was completely unmoved by the RBA and trades at 0.7540, with the JPY at 109.40. Gold slumped under $1312.00 overnight and Oil remains well bid ($68.77) following Israel PM Netanyahu claims that Iran had a secret plan to build nuclear weapons and had been βbrazenly lyingβ about their program. President Trump must decide by May 12 whether or not to extend U.S. participation in the βterribleβ Iran nuclear deal.US Data Reports:Β Revealed a slight under-performance for personal income relative to consumption in March that unfortunately narrowed the income-consumption gap of Q1 though a lower income path, although expectations are for a big βrealβ consumption bounce through Q2. Q2 GDP growth estimate remains at 3.6% after a 2.3% rate in Q1, with real consumption growth of an estimated 3.3% in Q2 after a 1.1% Q1 clip. We saw a flat PCE chain price figure in March that beat the 0.1% CPI drop, though with the same 0.2% core price gains for both. We saw small but divergent April moves in the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed gauges, to 57.6 and 21.8 respectively. Weβre seeing sustained strength across the producer sentiment measures in 2018 despite some April drop-back for some measures from lofty Q4-Q1 readings. The pending home sales report was a modest disappointment, with a lean 0.4% rise from a downwardly revised February figure.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today UK Manufacturing PMIΒ β Expectations are for a further weakening to 54.8 from 55.1 last time in line with weakening in other UK data. ISM Manufacturing PMI βΒ Expected to also fall to a still healthy 58.4 from 59.7 last time anything over 58.5 will be viewed as positive for US manufacturing. CAD GDP βΒ Expectations are for a rise 0.1% in February after the 0.1% drop in January. The projected monthly GDP figures are tracking a 1.3% gain in real Q1 GDP versus the 1.7% pace in Q4. Speeches βΒ The RBAβsΒ LoweΒ andΒ PolozΒ from the BOC, the FED are in media blackout before meeting. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Date : 2nd May 2018.MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd May 2018.FX News TodayAsia Wrap:Β Many markets reopened after yesterdayβs holidays, but there was little momentum on the only day this week that all Asian markets trade. The Hang Seng underperformed with a -0.65% loss, the CSI 300 is little changed and Nikkei and Topix down -0.23% and -0.17% respectively, as the yen picked up slightly against the dollar. Long yields climbed higher across Asia with the 10-year JGB yield up 0.9bp at 0.037%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 2.976%. oil pries are slightly higher and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 67.53 per barrel. Earnings reports remain in focus, Japan consumer confidence declined, while Chinaβs Caixin Manufacturing PMI inched marginally higher.European Outlook:Β Bund yields are higher in opening trade, with the 10-year up 1.4 bp at 0.569%, the 2-year unchanged at -0.599%, leaving the curve steeper, as European stock futures move higher. The uptick in Bund yields comes alongside a 1.3 bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields, which continue to hold below the 3% mark. Yields also moved up across Asia. U.S. stock futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ outperforming, after a lacklustre session in Asia. Eurozone peripherals are outperforming ahead of preliminary Q1 GDP data out of the Eurozone, which is expected to show a clear slowdown in growth momentum and together with the mixed April confidence readings should at least push out the rate hike trajectory for next year, even if it is unlikely to prevent the ECB from phasing out QE by the end of the year. The data calendar also includes the U.K. construction PMI and a German 4-year Bobl sale.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β FOMC MeetingΒ β No policy changes are expected, and since there is no press conference nor updated dots or economic projections. Expect the Fed to largely reiterate the March statement that the economy is expanding moderately, with strong job gains, albeit with some slowing in household and business investment. The Fed may show a little more confidence in reaching the 2% inflation goal given the updraft in various price reports, which would be consistent with expectations for a 25 bp June tightening. EUR Manufacturing PMI βΒ Expectations β inline at 56.0 no change from last time. SpeechΒ from head of the BUBA (and still potentila new head of the ECB) βWeidmann EUR GDP βΒ ExpectationsΒ βΒ Q1 GDP is expected to slow to a 0.4% rate of growth , after the 0.6% Q4 number, with a slow down in YoY number to 2.5% fro Q4 down from 2.7% in Q4. Poor weather, a series of strikes, an early Easter and possibility of an accelerated slow down all swirling around this key release Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart CowellSenior Market AnalystHotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2018 Date : 3rd May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd May 2018.FX News TodayAsia Wrap:Β Stock markets failed to cheer in Asia, with developers leading declines in Hong Kong in particular, amid concerns over waning momentum in home sales. Japan was closed again for a holiday, the Hang Seng dropped -1.25%, while the CSI 300 managed a 0.23% decline. The ASX outperformed with a 0.76% gain, despite negative leads from Wall Street yesterday, although U.S. stock futures are marginally higher. 10-year Treasury yields meanwhile are down -0.2 bp at 2.966% and the dollar retreated after the FOMC met but did not exceed expectations for a tune-up of the inflation references after recent gains in PCE prices. That left aΒ slightly more dovishΒ imprint than the markets had anticipated.The FOMC:Β Left the rates unchanged with a 1.625% mid-point for the 1.50% to 1.75% band. The vote was unanimous. The policy statement noted both overall and core inflation βhave moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low,β however. On the economy the Fed reiterated itβs been rising at a βmoderate rate.β Job gains remained strong, while growth in household spending βmoderate from its strong Q4 pace.β Also, business investment continued to grow βstrongly.β The FOMC also reiterated it expects βfurther gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policyβ¦Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committeeβs symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.β The statement was largely as expected and keeps a June hike on track, but itΒ wasnβt overly hawkishΒ such that a fourth rate hike is being priced in.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β UK Services PMIΒ β Expectations are for a rise to 53.5 from a surprise fall last month to 51.7, the construction number beat estimates yesterday but the Manufacturing number was s significant miss. EUR Area CPI βΒ National inflation data for April have mostly been lower, with France the notable exception, so a forecast for a steady Eurozone HICP reading of 1.3% y/y has a bias to the downside and a further dip in the headline rate would add to the arguments of the ECB doves that inflation is not on a sustainable path higher yet and remains reliant on ample monetary support. Core figure expected to be 0.9% with bias to the downside too. SpeechΒ from head of the SNB βΒ Jordan US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI βΒ Expectations a dip to 58.1 from 58.8 last time. Key bell weather of the US services activity Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2018 Date : 4th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th May 2018.FX News TodayEuropean Outlook:Β 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.531% in opening trade, the 2-year is trading unchanged at -0.599%. Peripherals are outperforming again while European stock futures are moving higher at the start of the session, against losses in U.S. futures after a weaker session in Asia overnight. U.S. jobs data rather than ongoing trade talks between China and the U.S. seem the main focus for markets today. The local calendar has the final reading of April services PMIs as well as March retail sales data.FX Update:Β The dollar has remained in a consolidation after pulling back from recent trend highs. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1900s after posting a new four-month low at 1.1937 on Wednesday. Rebound gains above 1.2000 have so far proved fleeting. USDJPY has settled to an orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the 11-week high seen yesterday at 110.03. The move reflects a broader correction in the dollar following the less hawkish than anticipated post-FOMC meeting statement from the Fed on Wednesday and a position-trimming and/or hedging dynamic ahead of the U.S. jobs report, which is generally expected to be strong but, as always, carries a degree of two-way risk for market participants. Regarding the U.S. payrolls report, they are expected at a solid 210k headline rise, though risks are to the upside following tight initial claims data and remarkable strength in consumer confidence and vehicle sales data.Charts of the DayMain Macro Events Today Β German Services β ExpectationsΒ β unchanged at 54.1 and composite at 55.3. Eurozone Services β ExpectationsΒ β Markit Services PMI expected at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2. Speeches out of Fedβs Dudley and Quarles, FOMC Williams and German Buda President Weidmann NFP data β Expectations βΒ US April payrolls expected at 192k, upside risk given claims, while jobless rate is estimated to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, which would be the lowest since December 2000. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.2%, for a y/y gain of 2.7%, steady from March. Support & Resistance LevelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 Date : 7th May 2018.MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th May 2018.Main Macro Events This Week Global growth has clearly moderated in 2018. And rising interest rates, geopolitical risks, and possible trade headwinds exacerbated worries. Many key reports have disappointed so far this year, including the March and April U.S. jobs report, Q1 UK GDP, retail sales, and various regional PMIs. Fears over real shooting wars with North Korea, Syria, Iran and possible involvement with Russia, hit business and consumer sentiment hard, while angst over a trade war has impacted too. One major result from the slide in momentum is that it will keep central bank normalization at bay.United States: The U.S. jobs report disappointed on nearly every metric, and especially in the service sector. The April CPI (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing. The y/y rate should edge up to 2.2% from 2.1% in March, which would be the highest since a similar gain in February 2017. April PPI (Wednesday) also is expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core, after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core. Fedspeakers are back now that the FOMC is out of the way and Earnings remain a focal point.Canada:Β April employment highlights this weekβs calendar. The jobs report (Friday) is seen revealing a 25.0k rise after the 32.3k gain in March. The unemployment rate should hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to expand at a 220.0k unit pace in April from the 225.2k in March. Building permit values (Wednesday) are expected to fall 1.0% in March after the 2.6% gain in February. The March new home price index (Thursday) is projected to slip 0.1% after the 0.2% decline in February.Europe: Data releases focus mainly on Germany. German March manufacturing orders are seen rising 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m in the previous month, confirming that the manufacturing sector remains robust for now, although with the earlier timing of the Easter holidays the forecast comes with a larger error margin and downside risks. This is even more true for March industrial production numbers (Tuesday), which include construction and energy production. We are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m after the weather related -1.6 m/m contraction in February. German trade data is also due and we expect data to back expectations for a marked slowdown in German GDP growth to just around 0.3% q/q in Q1.UK:Β The week ahead is highlighted by the BoEβs Monetary Policy Committee (announcingΒ Thursday) β no change expected following the plethora of weak data especially Q1 GDP. The data calendar brings the April BRC retails sales report (Tuesday), which we expect to show a contraction of 0.8% m/m, which would payback for the strong 1.4% m/m gain in March, and March industrial production and trade numbers (bothΒ Thursday). We expect industrial production to rise 0.2% m/m (median 0.1%) after 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior.Japan: March personal income and PCE data are due (Tuesday), with the latter seen up 1.0% from the prior 0.1% increase. The March current account surplus (Thursday) should widen to JPY 2,800 bln from 2,076 bln. April bank loan figures are also due (Thursday).China:Β April trade report (Tuesday) is expected to reveal a $20.0 surplus, versus the previous $33.7 bln surplus. April inflation (Thursday) should show CPI slipping to a 2.0% y/y from 2.1%, while April PPI should warm to 3.5% from 3.1%.Australia:Β Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.6% gain in February. Housing finance (Friday) is seen growing 1.0% in March after the 0.2% dip in February.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. ClickΒ HEREΒ to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. ClickΒ HEREΒ to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.Β Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForexDisclaimer:Β This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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