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Dollar rises ahead of key data releases, yen falls

The US dollar rose slightly on Monday ahead of key US economic data releases following the end of the government shutdown. The dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.282, recovering from a week of declines.

A slew of data releases are expected this week, including the non-farm payrolls report for September. ING analysts noted that the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December is estimated at 50%. This could reduce pressure on the dollar following the release of the FOMC minutes. Furthermore, several Fed speeches are scheduled this week, which could impact the dollar.

In Europe, the euro fell 0.2% to 1.1601, retreating from a two-week high. The pound sterling fell 0.1% to 1.3162 amid news on UK tax issues. The yen also declined following Japanese GDP data, which contracted 1.8% in the third quarter. The decline was due to weak exports, but capital expenditures increased, indicating companies' willingness to invest.

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Currency exchange for buying real estate abroad

Buying real estate abroad requires a careful approach to currency exchange. This is an important process that affects the safety of funds and potential savings.

1. Carefully analyze exchange rates. Banks, exchange offices, and online platforms offer different terms. Compare rates, commissions, and possible hidden fees. Consider not only the current rate but also its dynamics. Sudden fluctuations can significantly affect the final purchase price.
2. Choosing the optimal conversion method. Bank transfer is reliable, but not always the most advantageous option. Online currency exchange services often offer more attractive rates. However, it is important to ensure the reliability and reputation of the chosen platform.
3. Plan the exchange in advance. Avoid rushing and use pending orders.
4. Consult a financial specialist to develop an exchange strategy. A specialist will help develop the optimal currency exchange strategy, taking into account the individual needs and risks of the user.

A competent currency exchange helps you profitably invest in real estate abroad.

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The British pound is facing turbulence.

The British pound is facing market volatility ahead of the Budget address on November 26. Currency hedges have increased, and hedging costs have reached a peak. Weekly options are showing a sharp rise, particularly in the GBP/EUR pair, where volatility has reached a six-month high.

Traders are willing to pay a premium for risk insurance, and capital flows indicate negative expectations for the fiscal policy outcome. Focus is on the euro pair, as it better reflects UK risks. Analysts note that the government may not live up to its fiscal tightening expectations.

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Japanese Yen Forecasts for 2026

Global investors consider the Japanese yen to be the top currency in 2026. A Bank of America survey found that about a third of fund managers expect the yen to recover after a dismal year, when it underperformed against the dollar.

Gold and the US dollar are second in preference, while the British pound ranks last.

Optimism about the yen is likely due to its undervaluation and weak interest in Japanese assets. The yen's weakness this year is attributed to the unclear prospects for rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as well as the election of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who supports a loose monetary policy.

Potential currency intervention and the new prime minister's policies are expected to help strengthen the yen next year.

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Fed Meeting: Forecasts and Controversies

The US Federal Reserve will hold its final meeting of the year on December 9-10. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged has fallen from 55% to 29%. A rate cut could positively impact US stocks, and traders anticipating it could profit from the trade.

At the last meeting in October, the rate was cut to 3.75-4%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion. The lack of economic data complicates the situation for traders.

The minutes show disagreement among Fed members about further rate cuts. Following comments from the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the probability of a rate cut in December has increased to 71%. However, analysts are divided: some believe a rate cut in December is unjustified. Others expect a 25 basis point cut to 3.50-3.75%.

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The Swedish krona will surpass the dollar in early 2026.

According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the Swedish krona will surpass the US dollar in the first half of 2026. This is due to favorable global factors supporting the Swedish currency.

However, in the second half of 2026, the bank predicts a deterioration in the European situation will lead to the total return of the USD/SEK pair for the year being approximately zero.

Key factors influencing the krona's dynamics include risk appetite, policy differences between the Riksbank and the ECB, and inflation and growth data. The EUR/SEK exchange rate is expected to show less impressive results in 2026.

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The yuan has fallen in the global currency rankings.

According to Swift statistics, the Chinese yuan fell to sixth place in the global currency rankings as of October 2025. Its share in international settlements fell from 3.17% to 2.47%, while the volume of yuan payments decreased by 22%.

The share of the US dollar decreased from 47.79% to 46.71%. The euro increased its share from 22.77% to 23.98%, maintaining its second place. The British pound rose from 7.38% to 7.82%, and the Japanese yen rose from 3.69% to 3.83%. The Canadian dollar moved into fifth place, increasing its share from 3.12% to 3.33%.

The yuan ranked sixth with a 1.87% share in settlements outside the eurozone.

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Edited November 26, 2025 by PonyBit.ru

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What is a SWIFT transfer and how does it work?

A SWIFT transfer is an international bank transfer via the SWIFT system, which connects financial institutions worldwide. It allows senders and recipients to be located in different countries and work with banks without direct connections.

SWIFT acts as an intermediary, facilitating the transmission of a payment order from the sending bank to the receiving bank through a network of correspondent banks.

It works like this:

1. The process begins when the sender contacts their bank to request a transfer, providing the recipient's details, including the SWIFT code.
2. The sender's bank then generates a SWIFT message and sends it to the system.
3. The system determines the route through correspondent banks until the message reaches the recipient's bank.
4. Funds are then credited to the recipient's account.

SWIFT transfers are subject to fees and may take varying amounts of time depending on the route.

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Currency markets are jittery.

The US dollar is expected to have its weakest week in four months before Thanksgiving, driven by a decline in trading activity. Investors are speculating about a possible Federal Reserve interest rate cut next year.

The Japanese yen strengthened slightly due to the Bank of Japan's hawkish policy. There was no trading on US exchanges, increasing volatility in the currency markets.

The euro declined 0.05%, but remains in focus due to peace talks in Ukraine. The New Zealand dollar rose to a three-week high, driven by the central bank's stance, which points to possible changes in monetary policy. The Australian dollar also strengthened amid strong inflation data. The pound sterling reached its highest since the second half of the year, and the dollar index rose 0.1%.

The market is expected to begin considering major trades in 2026. The president of Spectra Markets noted that the appointment of a rate-cutting advocate as Fed chair could negatively impact the dollar.

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The dollar falls this week, the pound falls after GDP declines

The US dollar halted its decline late last week on Friday, but is poised for a third weekly decline amid the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to a near three-year low.

The dollar index remained at 97.995, but fell 0.7% for the week. This is the sharpest decline since 2017, with the overall decline this year exceeding 9%.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's address was less harsh than expected, and further rate cuts are forecast next year.

Meanwhile, the pound sterling fell 0.1% due to the UK economy's unexpected 0.1% contraction in October. In Europe, the Bank of England may cut rates, and the euro weakened slightly, but is also expected to gain 0.8% weekly. In Asia, the yen fell slightly ahead of the Bank of Japan's meeting, where rate hikes are expected.

The market is closely monitoring policymakers' comments on future interest rates.

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Digital Euro: Preparing for Launch in 2027

The European Central Bank plans to prepare for the launch of the digital euro by 2029, with pilot projects and test transactions beginning in 2027. A digital euro is necessary as payment systems in Europe transition to digital instruments, making cashless transactions more relevant.

The proposed legislative package includes two main documents:

1. The first ensures that citizens and businesses in the eurozone will retain unrestricted access to cash euros.
2. The second establishes rules for the digital euro, which will be free, easy to use, and accessible to everyone, with a level of security comparable to cash payments.

Transactions with the digital euro will be possible offline. The digital euro is of strategic importance for the EU, as it helps reduce dependence on foreign payment systems and is an essential element of the EU's economic security and autonomy in the payments market.

The regulatory framework is expected to be finalized in 2026, allowing pilot projects to be launched in 2027.

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How Online Sharing Helps People

In the digital age, when information spreads instantly, online sharing is becoming an integral part of our lives.

One of the main advantages of online sharing is its ability to overcome geographic barriers. Furthermore, online sharing promotes the development of personal and professional skills. Participation in online communities, forums, and interest groups allows people to exchange ideas, receive feedback, and learn from each other. This stimulates creative thinking, facilitates problem-solving, and helps adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the modern world.

Online sharing also plays a vital role in economic and business development. E-commerce platforms allow entrepreneurs to enter international markets, increase sales, and attract new customers.

Thus, online sharing is a powerful tool that helps people learn, develop, communicate, and build relationships. It makes the world more open, accessible, and interconnected, opening new horizons for personal and professional growth.

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[PonyBit.ru]

The pound tumbled after UK inflation data

The pound sterling fell after the release of data showing a decline in UK inflation, marking its biggest monthly decline. November's inflation rate was 3.2%, below expectations, raising the prospect of a Bank of England interest rate cut.

The GBP/USD exchange rate fell 0.8% to $1.3316, while the yield on UK 10-year bonds fell to 4.45%. Expectations for a rate cut have increased to 67 basis points by the end of the year. Consumer prices rose 3.2% in November, below expectations. One-day volatility for the pound remains around 10%, signaling market stability. Options prices have also become more bearish.

The pound's decline is accompanied by high expectations for a rate cut, although no significant fluctuations are expected.

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Exchanging CHF to EUR: The Stability of the Swiss Franc

The Swiss franc (CHF) is traditionally considered a safe haven for investors during periods of economic instability. Its stability, underpinned by the strong Swiss economy and the independent monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank, makes it an attractive asset for protecting capital.

Factors Affecting the CHF/EUR Exchange Rate:

1. Economic Indicators: The difference in GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates between Switzerland and the Eurozone has a significant impact. A strong Swiss economy generally supports the franc.
2. Geopolitical Risks: During periods of global uncertainty, investors seek safer assets like the CHF, leading to its appreciation.
3. Monetary Policy: The Swiss National Bank's decisions on interest rates and foreign exchange interventions play a key role in determining the CHF/EUR exchange rate.

Exchanging CHF to EUR can be profitable if an investor expects the franc to weaken. However, you should consider the risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations.

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USD/JPY: Intervention Risk May Increase in January

The risk of Japanese foreign exchange intervention in the USD/JPY pair may increase in January, according to Bank of America analysts. Reduced liquidity before the holidays and mixed positioning do not yet indicate intervention, but the rising trend in USD/JPY could change the situation early next year.

Analysts note that erratic market movements at the end of the quarter could negatively impact corporate earnings. While the risk of intervention in the coming days is limited, the overall trend in USD/JPY should be closely monitored. Short positions on the yen among commodity consultants appear extended, but investor positioning is diverging.

Current policies have failed to halt the yen's decline, and rising Japanese bond yields are limiting the Bank of Japan's actions. The administration may also hold early elections, which would increase sensitivity to a weaker yen.

Experts identified the 162-165 range as key levels, with a move to 160 unlikely to warrant intervention. The risk of accelerated yen depreciation will increase if there is no action at these levels.

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The dollar's decline isn't over yet.

The US dollar is heading for its worst annual performance in eight years, having lost 8.2% this year. The spot dollar index fell 0.3% to its lowest level since October 3. Further declines in the currency are reportedly likely to make this year the worst in two decades. Expectations of differences in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as well as seasonal factors, are weighing on the dollar.

The Canadian and Australian dollars have strengthened to high levels, while the Swedish krona has risen to levels not seen since February 2022.

Analysts are warning of pessimism regarding the dollar and highlighting the possibility of a sharp rebound with the release of new economic data.

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Currency Exchange for Pensioners

Receiving a pension from abroad can present certain challenges, especially when it comes to currency exchange.

Currency exchange considerations when receiving a pension from abroad:

• Pension payments from abroad are often received in foreign currency and converted into rubles.
• Exchange rates vary significantly between banks and exchange offices, so monitoring and comparing offers is crucial.
• Additional fees for conversion and bank transfers should also be taken into account.

Methods for receiving and exchanging currency:

1. The most common method is to receive your pension in an account at a Russian bank. The bank automatically converts the currency at its internal rate, which may not be the most favorable.
2. An alternative is to use specialized online currency exchange services, which offer more competitive rates.

Recommendations for retirees:

• Compare rates at several banks or online services
• Consider fees
• Review the bank or online service's terms and conditions
• Be vigilant (beware of overly favorable rates)

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The yuan strengthens to 7 per dollar

The yuan surpassed 7 per dollar for the first time since September 2024, amid expectations that the People's Bank of China will allow it to strengthen to support the market. Last week, the offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 6.9964 per dollar, following the People's Bank's decision to set the fixing at a high level.

The currency is posting its best annual performance in five years, driven by dollar weakness, capital inflows, and easing geopolitical tensions. Onshore, the yuan also rose 0.1%, reaching 7.0067 per dollar. However, many experts believe the yuan remains undervalued by approximately 25%. It is expected to maintain a strong position in the 6.95-7 per dollar range in the first half of next year.

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Exchanging USD for CAD: Peculiarities of the Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar (CAD) exchange rate against the US dollar (USD) is one of the most dynamic currency pairs in the world. Its volatility is influenced by several key factors, knowledge of which is essential for successful currency exchange.

1. The Canadian dollar is closely linked to commodity prices. Canada is a major exporter of oil, gas, timber, and other natural resources. When prices for these commodities rise, the CAD typically strengthens against the USD, and vice versa.
2. The monetary policies of the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve have a significant impact on the currency pair. If the Bank of Canada raises interest rates and the Fed leaves them unchanged, the CAD typically strengthens, as higher rates attract investors. Conversely, a rate cut in Canada weakens the CAD.
3. Geopolitical events and market sentiment can cause sharp fluctuations in the CAD/USD exchange rate. Uncertainty in the global economy often leads to the strengthening of the USD as a safe-haven currency.

When exchanging CAD for USD, it's important to consider these factors and compare rates at different banks and exchange offices to get the best rate.

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Dear users of our online exchange service Ponybit.ru!
Please accept our most sincere congratulations on the upcoming New Year 2026!

May the coming year be a year of prosperity, stability, and new financial horizons. We thank you for your trust and choosing our service. Your support is our main incentive for development and improvement. Over the past year, we have strived to make the currency exchange process as convenient, profitable, and secure as possible. We are glad that you appreciate our efforts.

In the new year, we will continue to improve our service and offer you even more favorable terms and expand the range of services we provide.

May 2026 bring you not only financial well-being, but also joy from every transaction, confidence in the future, and pleasant surprises in life. We wish you good health, success in all your endeavors, and a festive spirit!

Happy New Year!

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