Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

WTI oil correction after two-day sharp decline

Yesterday's oil price drew a small bearish candle with a shadow on the top of the candle. Oil price formed a high of 65.52, a low of 64.10, and a close of 64.48. The correction in oil prices briefly halted a two-day-long decline after the Middle East ceasefire.

The ceasefire in the Middle East has eased concerns about oil supply disruptions, keeping the price of a barrel for the US benchmark WTI below $65.00. Although the ceasefire may be fragile because Iran continues its peaceful nuclear program, while Israel accuses it of developing nuclear weapons.

Iran's oil supply capacity seems unaffected by the Israeli bombing, and the threat of a blockade on the key Strait of Hormuz has been averted for now. All these circumstances have contributed to bringing prices back to pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, investor concerns about demand remain as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing. Consumer confidence deteriorated in June, confirming the gloomy picture. Meanwhile, Powell’s hawkish stance in his congressional testimony on Tuesday added to the downside pressure on prices.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not signaled any imminent rate cuts as he said the risk of higher inflation stemming from Trump’s tariffs remains high. The Fed’s tighter policy is weighing on economic activity and oil demand, adding to the downside pressure on prices.

The latest data from the EIA showed a drawdown of 5.836 million barrels for the week ended June 20, far exceeding expectations for a modest 0.6 million barrel decline. The supply drawdown signals a tightening of supply conditions amid steady summer demand.

The Eurozone economy is stagnant, while China's recovery has not yet been achieved, the plan of OPEC+ countries to continue to increase supply may cause an oversupply of Oil.

Investors today will focus on the final US GDP data, which is estimated to have contracted -0.2% the same as the previous quarter. US Unemployment Claims are estimated to slightly decrease by 244k from the previous revision of 245k.

[Zeologic]

USD/CNH steady in the range of 7.1678 amid Yuan campaign

On Friday, the offshore Yuan pair USDCNH drew a bullish candle with a slight shadow on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.1748, a low of 7.1598, and a close of 7.1707. It is steady between the middle and lower bands of the contracting Bollinger bands.

Amid the USD challenges, China is trying to seize the moment to globalize the Yuan as doubts grow about the USD. According to Bloomberg, Chinese policymakers see erratic US decision-making and geopolitical tensions as the most favorable backdrop in recent years to promote the yuan. The move is aimed at facilitating trade and opening up China's financial markets and embedding the yuan deeper in investment flows.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng envisioned a new global currency order in which the US dollar plays a smaller role and the Yuan plays a major role in global capital flows. He plans to set up an international operations center for the digital yuan in Shanghai.

In 2025, the Chinese government is targeting 5% growth, and in the first quarter recorded a 5.4% year-on-year expansion, higher than the 5.1% expectation. However, official annual growth is estimated at 4.5% to 5% by institutions such as the OECD (4.7%), Goldman (4.0%), and Moody's (3.8%), which projected a slightly lower figure.

In the economic sector, industrial and export performance declined in May due to weak demand and tariff pressures. The property sector is also still weak; the Evergrande & Country Garden crisis was exacerbated by liquidation to large-scale restructuring, and this sector is a major drag on growth. Household consumption is -39% of GDP, but stimulus and trade-in have boosted consumer spending. PPI is negative, and consumer inflation remains low; there is a risk of deflation due to weak domestic demand.

Trade tensions with the US continue to be an external and geopolitical challenge. However, on the other hand, energy diversification has helped reduce vulnerability to global supply disruptions.

China's long-term challenges include an aging population, a drastically declining ratio of workers to retirees, and hampered productivity. Suboptimal services in the transformation of the economy from industrial exports to consumption and dependence on foreign technology, especially semiconductors, continue even though the Made in China 2025 program has shown success in high technology such as EV, AI, solar, etc.

Today, CFLP (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing) will release Manufacturing PMI data with expectations of 49.6 from the previous revision of 49.5.

[Zeologic]

Gold prices rise as global policymakers gather for ECB forum in Sintra

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, drawing a bullish candle with a small shadow on the top of the candle crossing the 50-day moving average from the bottom. Gold prices formed a high of 3357 low of 3301, and a closing of 3337.

The rise in gold prices extended Monday's gains after a sharp decline on Friday. The rise in gold prices also coincided with a meeting of global policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, which took place in Sintra, Portugal. ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were speaking at the forum on monetary policy.

The policy panel at the ECB forum in central banks is a rare opportunity for the world's leading central bankers to offer a critical opportunity for markets to assess the direction of global monetary policy.

The focus of Powell's remarks at the forum was his comments on the face of increasing pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut interest rates in July. Powell's hawkish stance was highlighted by his statement, "It's all going to be data-dependent, and we're going to evaluate that from meeting to meeting," Powell said. This shows the Fed's cautious stance in cutting interest rates despite pressure from President Trump.

Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing data and JOLTs data that beat expectations limited the US dollar's losses, which slightly paused gold prices to continue their rise. The market did not seem to respond much to the $4.5T tax cut bill that passed the Senate. Senators voted 51-50 to pass the bill.

The US JOLTS and ISM manufacturing data that were higher than expectations showed signs of improvement that might provide an overview of the next data on how the Fed will act at the next meeting.

Meanwhile, the current geopolitical risk is that Iran and Israel are in a ceasefire, but news of the war in Gaza continues. Some political observers say the Iran and Israel ceasefire is fragile, allowing war to break out again.

Today, investors will focus on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, which is expected to rise to 99k from the previous revision of 37k. This data often gets a market response because it measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the agricultural industry and government.
 

[Zeologic]

USD/CHF decline eases ahead of Swiss CPI

The USDCHF pair on Wednesday's market session formed a bullish small-bodied candle, easing the decline of the previous days. The price formed a high of 0.79411 low of 0.79031, and closed at 0.79154. The price has entered the oversold zone according to the RSI indicator, which points to level 27.

US data released on Wednesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, with negative nuances much lower than expected, is technically less supportive of the US dollar. However, DXY recovered slightly after dropping to a low of 96.377, rising to a high of 97.152, and closing at 96.810. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private employers lost 33,000 jobs in June. Job losses in the professional and business services sector, as well as education and health services, were the main causes of the decline. The leisure and hospitality sector, as well as manufacturing, showed an increase.

In addition, concerns about the health of the US fiscal and uncertainty about tariffs remain a significant burden on the recovery of the USD. The US dollar is still facing market concerns about the impact of Trump's tax law on US government debt and the lack of progress on trade deals. Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to the possibility of increased inflation stemming from Trump's tariffs.

The SNB currently maintains low interest rates, but further appreciation of the CHF could slow the economy. SNB board member Attilio Zanetti suggested that negative interest rates remain an option if needed to maintain price stability, adding that the central bank still has “ample instruments” even though the policy rate is near zero. While such steps are not imminent, the statement emphasized the SNB’s flexible stance and its openness to act if economic conditions worsen.

The IMF cut Switzerland’s 2025 GDP projection to 1.3% from 1.7% previously due to risks from geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and the Swiss franc remaining strong. Growth is expected to slow further to 1.2% in 2026.

Today, investors will focus on Swiss CPI due out by the Federal Statistical Office, which is expected to be steady at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous revision. The US will also release some economic data today. Average Hourly Earnings m/m are forecast to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%. Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to fall 111k from a previously revised 139k. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Unemployment Claims are forecast to rise 240k from 236k.

The Swiss Franc is strengthening its position as a safe-haven currency due to the stable Swiss economy, growing +0.7% in the first quarter. The strengthening of the Swiss Franc amidst declining investor confidence in the USD as a safe-haven amid President Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to increase inflation.

[Zeologic]

Silver price rises reflecting increasing demand

The price of the XAGUSD pair representing Silver drew a bullish candle near the upper band line with a small body. The price formed a high of 37,215, a low of 36,913, a close of 37,148. The price movement above the MA 50 and MA 200 reflects bullish sentiment.

Referring to the fundamental analysis of Silver, the price increase was triggered by increasing demand and a supply deficit where global demand exceeded supply for the fifth consecutive year. Demand comes from industrial sectors such as EV, AI, electronics, and solar power.

On the other hand, geopolitical risk is the reason investors are looking for safe-haven assets, including Silver. Geopolitical tensions have driven large fund flows into Silver ETFs, reaching an inflow of US $ 1.6 billion in June.

Raising Silver prices are also driven by a weakening USD and dovish Fed expectations. Weak US employment data in June increased the chances of a US interest rate cut which could lower yields and support precious metals such as gold and silver which do not provide yields.

Some analysts are targeting medium to long-term bulls anticipating silver prices to reach $38-$40 by the end of 2025 and even up to $50 in 2026-2027, depending on the supply deficit trend.

From the fundamental summary, silver prices are expected to remain in an upward trend. However, the current Silver price is at the historical resistance level of the previous price in mid-June. If gold manages to break out, it is expected to rise higher.

Today in the economic calendar, there are no high-impact news releases. Some news of concern is the BRICS Summit involving BRICS members such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and other members.

[Zeologic]

NZD/USD moves flat near 50 MA ahead of interest rates

The New Zealand Dollar yesterday formed a doji candle with a long wick on the top of the candle with the opening and closing prices close together. The price formed a high of 0.60343 low of 0.59791 closing of 0.59956.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) halted its advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as the Greenback strengthened after renewed tariff threats and an extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs. US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for reciprocal tariffs to August 1 from July 9, providing room for further negotiations but keeping market sentiment cautious.

Donald Trump's uncertain stance has contributed to global uncertainty, although the US Dollar Index's performance rose to a high of 97.838 yesterday but closed lower at 97.518 below the EMA 20 line. The USD's performance is still under pressure as seen from the EMA 20 indicator which draws a descending channel above the current value. Uncertainty in trade relations with several countries has resulted in weaker USD performance due to declining investor confidence.

Bearish pressure on the USD gives room for the New Zealand dollar to strengthen, although there is still a cautious sentiment towards global trade risks.

Today the New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) will announce interest rates. The market anticipates that the RBNZ will hold interest rates at 3.25% after a major cut of 225 bps since last August. From other fundamentals, New Zealand's first-quarter growth reached +0.8% and inflation was stable in the target range of 2.5%, which shows that the NZD is still supported by a relatively neutral or dovish monetary stance.

However, the NZD is still sensitive to global risks, including US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a commodity currency, the NZD tends to strengthen when global sentiment is positive and moves to risk-on assets, conversely weakening when a fight for safety occurs.

In the short term, the risk conditions and DXY movements are the main catalysts if the USD continues to weaken, it is expected that NZDUSD can reach 0.605-0.608, conversely if negative sentiment appears NZD may fall to 0.595 - 0.600.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin price attempts to break the $110,000 price level

BTCUSD on Wednesday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of $111,956, a low of $108,336, and a close of $110,716 on FXOpen's platform. Wednesday's rise continued Tuesday's small gain. The impact of this rise is that the Bollinger bands widened slightly, reflecting higher volatility.

There are several points in Bitcoin analysis today that investors are focusing on. The first concerns institutional adoption and regulation. Large fund flows into spot ETFs are projected to reach US$49 billion by July 2025. The Trump administration established a strategic Bitcoin Reserve fund in March 2025, adding formal recognition to Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Large corporations like MicroStrategy reported unrealized gains of US$14 billion from holdings of approximately 597,000 BTC, demonstrating long-term confidence.

Other fundamental factors include on-chain metrics and supply. The drop in liquidity, with over 14.7 million BTC remaining unmoved for over 155 days, created a supply squeeze. Trading activity remained stable, with average daily volume reaching US$5.9 billion year-over-year, but weakened slightly in July. Medium-term holders of three- to ten-year positions realized billions of dollars in profits, a sign of distribution and confidence.

Macro and geopolitical factors, including increasing stablecoin legislation and crypto regulation in the US, are encouraging legal clarity and long-term adoption. The easing of geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran war has provided positive momentum for crypto market sentiment. The Fed is stabilizing; if interest rates are lowered, this could strengthen riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Despite strong flows, exchange trading activity has weakened somewhat, and low volume could trigger a correction if there is no new buying momentum. Regulatory risks also remain, although the majority of positive signals suggest a sudden change is still possible. Bitcoin's inherent volatility remains high, and corrections are possible even during a long-term bullish trend.

Although Bitcoin's weekly gain remains low at 1.29%, the fear and greed index, which rose 2 points from 50 to 52, indicates new confidence has arisen, although it remains neutral.

[Zeologic]

Silver prices surged on Friday. Will they continue their upward trend?

The XAG/USD pair on Friday drew a bullish candle with a long body with almost no shadow, breaking the upper band line. The price formed a high of 38,529, a low of 36,906, and a close of 38,382 on FXOpen's platform. The silver price surge was the highest since 2012. The surge in silver prices was likely driven by falling long-term Treasury yields, which led to an influx into precious metals, including silver, as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East or global concerns could increase interest in safe-haven assets. Prospective silver demand for the electronics, solar panels, and automotive industries, along with news of Chinese stimulus, could fuel global demand.

Silver prices have been in a strong uptrend throughout 2025, rising by around 26.8%. Breaking through this psychological level could encourage speculative momentum and a surge in long prices, which could stimulate silver prices. The market may have expected the Fed to delay interest rate tapering or signal a looser policy, with expectations of lower interest rates weakening the US dollar and supporting industrial metals. There is no direct supply data today, but strong reports from the industrial sectors in Germany and China are putting pressure on silver prices.

Concerns about rising US tariffs could disrupt global trade, potentially driving safe-haven flows. However, if trade negotiations progress well, investors may avoid riskier assets.

What's worth noting in today's silver trading is that the price has risen significantly, potentially leading to profit-taking, which could lead to a retracement. The US Dollar Index rose to 97.964 on Friday from a low of 97.555, triggered by the dovish FOMC minutes and a successful US bond auction on Wednesday.

The US dollar is expected to strengthen today, driven by a rebound in Treasury yields, which could pressure the price of precious metals like silver. US economic data releases, such as CPI, PPI, employment data, or Fed minutes, are expected. Updates on geopolitical tensions, movements in 2-10-year US Treasury yields, and solar panel sales data from China and India could provide subtle clues about silver demand.

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[Zeologic]

GBP under pressure from disappointing UK economic data

The GBPUSD pair drew a bearish candle yesterday, extending its decline since early July. The price formed a high of 1.34666, a low of 1.33791, and a close of 1.33812 on FXOpen's platform.

The GBP's weakness was driven by UK GDP, which fell by -0.1% in May for the second consecutive month after -0.3% in April, signaling a weakening core economy, putting pressure on the pound sterling. A weakening labor market, indicated by the Bank of England's comments that declining employment could trigger faster interest rate cuts, caused the GBP to weaken against the USD.

US CPI inflation rose through the end of the second quarter. Although the figures largely met or exceeded expectations, investors still felt the impact of rising prices. In June, the annual CPI inflation rate rose to 2.7% year-on-year, well below the Fed's 2% target. With inflation still persistent, hopes for an early Fed rate cut have faded. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates at its July 30 meeting is 97.4%.

Low US initial jobless claims of 227,000 reduced expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and supported the USD, pushing GBP below 1.3600. The threat of high US tariffs continues to create a global risk-off environment, and the market reaction to these tariffs also restrained the performance of the pound sterling, which was negatively impacted by global volatility. The medium-term outlook is likely dampened due to weak UK fundamentals and expectations that the Bank of England (BOE) will cut interest rates in August-December.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar's performance against six major currencies, showed an uptrend, drawing a bullish candlestick crossing the 20-EMA from below, reaching a high of 98.699 near the 50-EMA. The balance of USD strength versus GBP weakness, coupled with global risk-off sentiment, triggered a decline in GBPUSD, with the nearest support level around 1.3600-1.3630. A further breakout would likely test the 1.3500 support level.

Today, the market focus is on UK inflation news, which is estimated at 3.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous revision. And US PPI data is expected to be 0.2%, up from 0.1% previously.

[Zeologic]

Awaiting Australian employment data, AUD/USD moves within a range

The AUD/USD pair drew a bullish candle yesterday with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This ended three consecutive bearish candles. The price formed a high of 0.6533, a low of 0.64952, and a close of 0.65253. The AUD/USD price movement is near the middle band line.

AUD/USD has shown recent weakness, trading near 0.6500 and down more than 1% this week. The US dollar strengthened despite lower-than-expected US Producer Price Index data. Today, AUD/USD traders will await Australian employment data, Employment Change, and Employment Rate, which are important catalysts.

The US dollar continued to strengthen despite weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, as traders remained cautious amid persistent inflation concerns and the threat of escalating tariffs from the United States.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised traders by keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.85%. Six of its nine board members supported the decision, while the other three advocated for an immediate 25 basis point cut. This internal split, described by Governor Michele Bullock as "timing, not direction." Bullock has since signaled that if Q2 inflation comes close to forecasts, a rate cut will follow. The RBA is taking a data-dependent approach and wants to see more evidence of inflation returning to its 2-3% target before easing further.

Further attention will be on the RBA's August meeting, following the release of the June quarter CPI data and the latest employment and financial data. The implications of the RBA's decision to hold interest rates could provide some support for the AUD, but the market will be highly sensitive to the RBA's comments on the outlook for future monetary policy.

In the US, the Fed's latest Beige Book report showed that US economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, albeit with high uncertainty. Non-auto consumer spending declined in most districts. The Fed funds rate is currently 4.33%, and the prime bank lending rate is around 7.50%. If US economic data continues to demonstrate resilience, this could support the Fed's stance on maintaining interest rates, supporting the USD. However, if more significant signs of weakness emerge, expectations of a rate cut could increase, weakening the USD.

Australia's annual inflation rate stabilized in the first quarter of 2025. Services inflation slowed but was offset by rising goods inflation, particularly electricity. Continuing inflation within the RBA's target could increase pressure to cut interest rates in the future, which is negative for the AUD.

US CPI inflation for July 2025 is estimated at 3.73% and core CPI at 3.04%. US PPI data was flat for June, while core PPI missed expectations, representing a downside surprise. Lower-than-expected US inflation data could ease pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates.

The US will release key economic data today: monthly core retail sales, which are expected to rise to 0.3% from a previously revised -0.3%. Unemployment claims are expected to rise to 233,000 from 227,000. Meanwhile, Australia's employment change is estimated at 21.0,000 from a previously revised -2.5,000, with the unemployment rate estimated at 4.1%, the same as the previous revision.

 

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin Price Around $118K Amid News of US Pro-Crypto Move

Bitcoin's price has been flat for three days, trading in the $117k-$118k range. Bitcoin's price began to rise on July 9th after successfully breaking the psychological level of $111k, pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $123k

Bitcoin's rise may have been driven by various factors, including: the United States' pro-crypto stance with several laws such as the Genius Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDD Act, which clarified the regulatory authority of stablecoins, the SEC vs. the CFTC, and the rejection of CBDCs. This wave of regulation has encouraged the adoption of ETFs, creating a legal climate that favors institutional investors.

Current market sentiment is tending toward Greed, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching 68, indicating high market optimism. Macro capital flows, including expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, are also a catalyst for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded billions of dollars in inflows between $3.4 and $4 billion in July. Products like the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust now manage around $80 billion, outpacing the growth of gold ETFs. Publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are also adding Bitcoin reserves as a strategic asset.

On-chain metrics and network security: The network hash rate is very high at around 891 EH/s, indicating post-halving confidence among miners. The distribution of long-term holders is increasing, with approximately 30% of coins remaining unchanged for less than five years, focused on high returns. Metrics like MVRV, SOPR, and MPI indicate a healthier, less speculative rally. Whale activity also attracted large movements totaling $8.3 billion, indicating strong conviction.

Quantum computing risks are still considered medium-term, and the community is developing quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions. There is potential for a short-term correction, with indicators like NVT suggesting overbought conditions at the peak of the cycle. However, expectations of lower macro interest rates and global uncertainty due to trade wars and tariffs are supporting Bitcoin.

[Zeologic]

GBP/USD rises after US dollar weakens

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 1.35106, a low of 1.34021, and a close of 1.34915, slightly below the 50-day moving average (MA).

The pound's rise was triggered by a weakening US dollar, pressured by falling US Treasury yields and continued uncertainty surrounding upcoming trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path.

The Dollar-to-Demand (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, fell 0.62% from 98.508 to a low of 97.700, crossing the 20-day moving average (EMA) from the upside.

UK economic data showed that inflation (CPI) rose unexpectedly to 3.6% in June, its highest level in 18 months. The main pressure came from rising fuel, food, and transportation prices. Core inflation remained high at 3.7%, and services inflation at 4.7%. The BoE may be more cautious and delay or slow down its August rate cut, which is fundamentally supportive of GBP.

Although the market had been aggressively pricing in an interest rate cut, rising inflation has made the likelihood of a cut in August uncertain, perhaps even just one.

The US dollar has tended to weaken, supported by dovish Fed expectations and falling Treasury yields, while concerns about US inflation have tended to limit USD gains.

Domestic pressures in the UK economy, weakening employment with unemployment at 4.7% and wage growth slowing to 5%, as well as signs of a mild recession, such as contractions in GDP and industrial production, remain a concern. Fiscal pressures and government policy also add to the uncertainty.

GBPUSD is expected to trade sideways bullish today as high inflationary pressures provide short-term support, but the Bank of England's caution and weak domestic data limit gains. Considering the risks, day traders may look for rebound opportunities near the 1,340 support level with a target of 1,349

[Zeologic]

EUR/USD rose slightly ahead of the ECB interest rate decision

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair drew a small-bodied bullish candle with a short shadow at the bottom. The price formed a high of 1.17753, a low of 1.17111, and a close of 1.17669. The EURUSD price movement is now above the middle band, with resistance at 1.18400 according to the upper band.

Today's EURUSD volatility forecast will be heavily influenced by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (FED), as well as important economic data from the Eurozone and the United States.

The market widely anticipates the ECB will maintain its interest rate at 2.15% at today's ECB interest rate decision. This follows the June rate cut. The ECB will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach, awaiting more significant data before making further adjustments.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely adopt a cautious or dovish narrative, emphasizing the need to reassess downside risks to the economy without appearing reactive. Although inflation is projected to fall to 1.4% in early 2026, below the 2% target, and the euro has strengthened significantly, the threat of higher US tariffs could pose a downside risk to eurozone growth.

Regarding the European outlook, markets are divided over the possibility of a rate cut in September or December 2025. If US tariffs are tightened, two cuts could be justified. If the ECB maintains a cautious stance but signals further rate cuts, this could put pressure on the EUR. However, if there are indications the ECB will not cut rates anytime soon, the EUR could strengthen.

Regarding the US monetary policy outlook, the federal funds futures market projects that monetary policy easing will begin later this year. The FOMC media projections for June 2025 indicated two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there are differences of opinion among FOMC members.

US inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, reaching 2.3% in May 2025 and is expected to rise slightly later in the year due to trade tariffs. The US labor market is expected to remain solid, despite slowing economic growth.

If the Fed maintains its stance that it is ready to cut rates, this will put pressure on the USD. Conversely, if data shows more persistent inflation or a stronger-than-expected labor market, the Fed may delay a rate cut, which would support a stronger USD.

Investors' focus today is on economic data in the Eurozone and the US. This includes the ECB's interest rate decision, inflation estimates, and European PMIs. In the US, new home sales, unemployment claims, and PMIs can provide insights into the US economy.

Trade tensions stemming from Trump's tariffs remain a major focus for traders. The threat of US tariffs potentially reaching 30% is the biggest concern for the Eurozone, which could significantly impact GDP by up to 0.5% through 2026, especially for export-oriented economies like Germany. While global geopolitical impacts, such as tensions in the Middle East, are easing, any escalation could increase demand for safe-haven assets like the USD.

[Zeologic]

USD/JPY sentiment has appeared slightly bearish in recent sessions following the recent US PMI report.

In the past few days, since July 17, USD/JPY sentiment has been more bearish. However, yesterday, USD/JPY drew a bullish candle after failing to cross the middle band line. The price formed a high of 147.022, a low of 145.857, and a close of 146.954 on FXOpen's platform.

The USD/JPY's rise appears to have been driven by stable Japanese private sector growth in July. The composite PMI recorded 51.5 for the second consecutive month in July. The increase in service sector activity was offset by a contraction in manufacturing output.

In general, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the policy differences between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, economic data from both countries, and global risk sentiment.

The Fed's monetary policy appears to remain in a wait-and-see mode, with a neutral to slightly pessimistic outlook on overall economic activity. Although real GDP growth in Q1 2025 showed a decline of 0.5%, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q3 2025 showed growth of 2.4%. The better-than-expected employment report reduced the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming July 30th meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to maintain its target range of 4.25-4.50% by 95.9%.

Inflation, particularly Core PCE, remains above the Fed's 2% target year-on-year, although the latest monthly data shows inflation below target. This may indicate the Fed is still maintaining a wait-and-see approach and may be considering a rate cut towards the end of the year.

US trade tariffs are also in focus, with potential impacts on inflation and the global economy.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has normalized its monetary policy, raising its short-term policy rate to 0.5% after exiting its unconventional policy in March 2024. However, the BOJ appears reluctant to move further, keeping interest rates steady and slowing the pace of government bond purchases. Japanese inflation remains sticky and above the BOJ's 2% target, with Core CPI at 2.37% in May and headline CPI at 3.5%, but economic growth remains fragile. The BOJ will likely remain on hold until at least Q4 2025, unless inflation rises sharply beyond expectations, reflecting the BOJ's dilemma between inflation and fragile growth.

The US-Japanese interest rate differential remains a dominant factor supporting the USD. US interest rates are relatively higher than Japan's, supporting the USD as long as the Fed maintains higher rates than the BOJ.

Today, the US Durable Goods Orders data for June will be released, providing insights into business investment and demand for durable goods. The Fed Balance Sheet report is also due today, and yesterday's US jobless claims are also of interest.

The Tankan (Japan's short-term economic survey) report for June showed that business sentiment deteriorated in some manufacturing industries, largely due to the impact of US tariffs, but overall remained favorable. The Japanese economy is expected to moderate amidst the slowdown in overseas economies.

USDJPY traded near 146.00, correcting higher at the start of the week, ranging sideways between 145 and 149 within the Bollinger Bands.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin traded in the $119,000-$120,000 range, approaching a high of $123,000.

In three consecutive trading days, Bitcoin drew bullish candles, but the price movement remained within the $114,000-$120,000 range. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price reached a high of $119,735 and a low of $118,746, closing at $119,706 on FXOpen's platform.

Factors driving Bitcoin's price include institutional demand and spot ETFs. The growing popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Trust, has been the primary driver of capital inflows into BTC. Citigroup emphasized that adoption—not mining fees or stock-to-flow—is the primary factor in BTC's current value.

From a regulatory and legal perspective, the passage of the Genius Act provides clarity and new regulations for both stablecoins and ETF products, increasing the appeal of institutional investors. The creation of a Bitcoin reserve by the US government from seized assets further legitimizes cryptocurrency as a long-term strategic asset.

Macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy. US inflation remains high at around 3.0%-3.4% year-on-year, driven by trade tariffs and supply chain pressures. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of July, with the first rate cut potentially coming in September 2025. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation and dollar weakness.

Bitcoin whale activity and market volatility. Large-scale selling by Bitcoin whales occurred throughout July, raising concerns about market confidence, although it is considered an individual action rather than a broad trend. Open interest in the BTC futures market surged to $44.68 billion, indicating high speculation and the potential for sharp volatility ahead. If the Fed holds off on cutting interest rates due to persistently high inflation, Bitcoin remains attractive as an alternative risk-on asset. However, a rate cut could divert capital to traditional assets.

Short-term sentiment for Bitcoin remains positive, supported by spot ETFs and institutional adoption, with potential for a continuation towards the $130,000-$150,000 range by year-end.

Short-term risk is moderate. High volatility in the derivatives market and whale activity could trigger a retracement to the $110,000-$115,000 support zone. Medium-term sentiment depends on further regulatory action and the Fed's interest rate policy. The FOMC outcome at the end of July is also a key trigger. The July CPI release on August 12 could shed light on future monetary policy trends.

[Zeologic]

Gold Extends Fourth Straight Day of Losses as US–EU Trade Deal Confirms

Gold prices fell yesterday, drawing a bearish candle that crossed the 50-day moving average (MA) from the upside. Prices reached a high of 3345, a low of 3301, and a close of 3314.

Gold prices extended losses for the fourth consecutive trading day, falling more than 0.60% amid a trade agreement deal between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) over the weekend, reducing tariffs on EU goods from the proposed 30% to 15%.

The Dollar-denominated Price Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, responded to the news, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle, reaching a high of 98.685 from a low of 97.492 on Monday. The DXY even crossed the 20-day moving average (EMA) and 50-day moving average (EMA) from the downside, indicating a strong uptrend.

US government bond yields also showed signs of recovery, hampering gold prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.410%. Real US yields rose nearly three basis points to 1.974%.

A Reuters survey on July 28 indicated that risks from global tensions and surging US debt continue to fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Analysts revised their 2025 gold price forecast to $3,220 from $3,065 and projected a potential peak of $4,000 in 2026 if risks worsen.

The June FOMC meeting minutes signaled that some members favored a rate cut as early as July, although the final decision is data-dependent. This news is supportive of gold.

China's central banks and others continue to expand gold reserves as a hedge against dollar dominance and potential US sanctions. In Asia, demand for gold for jewelry and physical gold is relatively weak, but investment through ETFs and financial instruments remains strong.

Investors still view gold as a hedge against market volatility, especially amid ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty. A Reuters survey found that 40% of central banks consider geopolitical risk a primary reason for holding gold.

Overall, based on fundamental data, gold still has a short- to medium-term bullish bias with minimal downside risk unless a new catalyst for weakening investment demand or geopolitical normalization emerges.

Important US data, such as jobless claims and the PMI index, will impact rate cut expectations. Worse data could potentially further rally gold. New trades related to US trade policy and/or fiscal debt could increase safe-haven flows. Gold ETF inflows are also an important signal, although despite weakening physical demand in Asia, a shift towards digital-based investment could support gold prices.

[Zeologic]

USD/JPY at its highest level since April

Yesterday, the Japanese Yen weakened amid the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2024. Yesterday, USD/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 149.533, a low of 147.804, and a close of 149.451, moving from the middle band to the upper band line.

The Fed is likely to maintain its policy stance in response to uncertainty driven by tariffs and inflation, despite pressure from the White House for interest rate cuts. Projections suggest the possibility of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, but this depends on incoming economic data, particularly labor market and inflation data. US growth showed a recovery in Q2 2025, with GDP growth of 2.5% annually after a 0.5% contraction in Q1. The unemployment rate is stable at 4.1%-4.2%. US CPI inflation as of June 2025 rose to 2.7% annually, with core inflation of 2.9%.

The Bank of Japan also maintained its short-term policy rate at 0.5% at its July 2025 meeting, where it had been since January 2025. The BoJ demonstrated a cautious approach in exiting its ultra-loose policy amid persistent inflation and global uncertainty, particularly the impact of US tariffs. The BoJ is expected to raise its inflation projection for the current fiscal year to 2.5%, while maintaining below 2% for the next two years. There is strong speculation for another rate hike in late 2025 or early 2026, with October 2025 as a possible window. Japan's economic growth has slowed, contracting 0.2% annually in the last quarter due to weak consumption and exports. However, wage increases in the spring 2025 labor negotiations indicate improvement that could support future consumption. Japan's CPI inflation as of June 2025 was 3.3% annually, with core inflation also at 3.3%.

The USD/JPY will be heavily influenced by the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, as well as economic data from both countries. The US appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation. However, a rate cut later in the year could put downward pressure on the USD. Japan's current interest rate stance indicates its readiness for further policy tightening if inflation and wage growth are sustained. A potential BoJ rate hike would support the JPY.

US CPI inflation data remains above the Fed's 2% target. If inflation remains high, the Fed is likely to maintain a supportive interest rate environment for the USD. Japan's inflation above the BoJ's target for the fourth consecutive year provides encouragement for the BoJ to continue moving toward policy normalization, which would support the JPY.

The recovery in US GDP growth in Q2 2025 demonstrates economic resilience, supporting the USD. However, concerns about the impact of tariffs and slowing consumption could pose a barrier. Meanwhile, Japan's still-weak economic growth is a concern, although rising wages offer some hope. Sluggish consumption and weak exports could limit the strength of the JPY.

Today, the market will focus on the outcome of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, which concludes today. Given that the BoJ is expected to maintain interest rates but may signal further tightening or revise its inflation projections upward, this could provide a boost to the JPY.

Given that the BoJ is on track to exit its ultra-loose policy stance, while the Fed is likely to refrain from cutting rates anytime soon despite pressure from Trump, monetary policy divergence is likely to support the JPY's strength relative to the USD in the medium term. However, today, July 31, 2025, the primary focus is the BoJ's announcement. If the BoJ delivers a more hawkish statement or significantly raises its inflation projections, we may see JPY appreciation. Conversely, if the BoJ is very cautious and does not give a strong signal for further tightening, buying pressure on USDJPY could re-emerge, especially if stronger US economic data emerges.

[Zeologic]

Silver prices fell near the lower band, extending the decline that began on July 23rd.

Yesterday, the XAG/USD pair drew a bearish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 37,264, a low of 36,202, and a close of 36,699 on FXOpen's platform. Silver's price movement has crossed the middle band from the upper side and reached the lower band line.

Silver is currently exhibiting complex movement. On the one hand, there are strong driving factors driving price increases. On the other hand, several sentiments are also holding back the price increase.

Factors supporting price increases include the Fed's dovish stance, with expectations that it will begin cutting interest rates in September and December 2025. Looser monetary policy tends to weaken the USD and increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver and gold. Industrial demand is also strong, particularly for solar panels, electronics, and other green technologies, which continue to rise. This growing demand provides a strong fundamental support for silver in the long term. Geopolitical and trade uncertainty can fuel demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold. The threat of US trade tariffs on several trading partner countries, and the Russia-Ukraine war in the Middle East, also support silver amid global uncertainty. Silver supply is expected to be in deficit, which could lead to price increases as demand exceeds availability.

On the other hand, a strengthening USD is hampering silver. Despite expectations of future interest rate cuts, the US dollar remains supported by recent favorable economic data. A strong US dollar historically pressures silver prices because it makes them more expensive for investors holding other currencies. There is some trade optimism regarding a deal between the US and some of its trading partners, which could ease tensions, potentially reducing silver demand. Technically, there is a weakening bullish momentum, with signs of exhaustion. Silver recently experienced a correction from its highs, indicating profit-taking and a potential price reversal.

Recent US data, such as better-than-expected initial jobless claims, could support USD strength, although market sentiment remains focused on expectations of a Fed rate cut. Silver has declined from its high around 39.50, indicating strong resistance at that level. Investor sentiment data suggests that long positions are beginning to slow, which could signal the exhaustion of bullish momentum. However, the overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish.

Fundamentally, silver still has support from expectations of looser monetary policy, strong manufacturing, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, caution is needed to monitor US economic data today, such as the NFP, PMI, and unemployment rate, which could trigger USD strength.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin Consolidates After Significant Rally in July

BTCUSD indicates the market is in a consolidation phase following its July rally. Yesterday, BTCUSD drew a bullish candle that engulfed the preceding candle, indicating that after the decline, buyers were trying to take over. BTCUSD formed a high of 114756, a low of 111986, and a close of 114416. Bitcoin sentiment is expected to move sideways in the 115,000-120,000 range after reaching a record high in July. Analysts predict a possible price squeeze, or significant price movement, either upward or downward.

Bitcoin ETF data flows remain a key driver. July saw a record $12.8 billion in inflows into crypto ETFs, reflecting strong institutional demand. This inflow, coupled with post-halving dynamics, is expected to fuel a potential Bitcoin breakout in August.

The impact of Trump's policy of changing reciprocal tariffs in various countries caused a decline in crypto prices. This indicates that macroeconomic sentiment and global policies still have a significant impact on digital assets like Bitcoin.

Major companies continue to show interest in Bitcoin, for example, Trump Media's $2 billion Bitcoin acquisition, challenging Micro Strategy's dominance. This demonstrates Bitcoin's growing integration into public companies' investment strategies.

On-chain funds show that new investor dominance in Bitcoin is around 30%, far below the saturation level of 64%-72%, indicating that there is still a lot of fresh capital entering the market without any signs of excessive euphoria, opening the opportunity for a larger price surge.

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value ratio is currently at 2.2 and is slowly approaching its 365-day moving average. Historically, this ratio often approaches the long-term average, often leading to rebounds accompanied by price spikes.

Bitcoin's on-chain velocity is at its lowest level in a decade, indicating that BTC is shifting from a medium of exchange to a long-term store of value, primarily driven by institutional adoption.

Short-term predictions suggest Bitcoin will remain in the $115,000-$120,000 range. Some analysts are targeting $125,000-$128,000 if it successfully breaks through the $120,000 resistance. Predictions for the end of the year vary, with VanEck projecting $180,000, Charles Schwab predicting $1 million, and Standard Chartered targeting $200,000.

[Zeologic]

Gold prices rose, supported by speculation regarding the Fed's monetary policy.

Yesterday, gold prices rose slightly, drawing a small-bodied bullish candlestick, attempting to extend two previous gains. Gold prices formed a high of 3385, a low of 3345, and a close of 3373 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold prices appear to remain supported by safe-haven sentiment and speculation regarding the Fed's monetary policy. Several key factors to watch today are: US economic data, geopolitical conditions, US dollar movements, and central bank demand.

US economic data, including last week's weaker-than-expected US employment data, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), has fueled market speculation about the Fed's possible inclination toward an interest rate cut. This is good news for gold, as lower interest rates tend to weaken the USD and increase the appeal of non-yielding gold.

Today's key event: the market will focus on the S&P Global Services PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July. Data showing a slowdown in the services sector could further support speculation about a Fed rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher. Conversely, strong data could dampen such speculation and potentially depress gold prices.

Global uncertainties, such as trade tensions triggered by Trump and geopolitical conflicts such as Russia-US and China-Taiwan, continue to be key drivers of demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. As long as this uncertainty persists, gold is likely to remain a primary choice for investors seeking to protect their assets.

The US dollar strengthened in recent days due to a technical rebound after a sharp decline following the NFP release. However, this strengthening will be temporary if US data released today shows weakness. If risk sentiment resumes and speculation about a Fed interest rate cut intensifies, the US dollar will likely weaken, which in turn will support gold prices.

Gold purchases by global central banks, primarily to reduce dependence on the US dollar, are also a long-term fundamental factor supporting gold prices. Fund inflows into gold ETFs also indicate positive investor sentiment.

Gold's movement today could depend on the release of US PMI data. If the PMI weakens, gold prices are likely to find momentum to extend their gains. If the PMI data is stronger than expected, a correction in gold prices is likely as speculation about an interest rate cut will subside.

While short-term sentiment is supportive, some analysts warn of strong resistance at the psychological level of around $3,400, which may be difficult to break without significant trading volume.