Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

Gold consolidates near the psychological level of $4,300

Gold price movement over the past three days has tended to be limited near the upper band line. After reaching a high of $4,353, the price fell again, moving within a range of $4,271-$4,353. Yesterday, gold formed a small bullish candle with short wicks at the top and bottom of the candle. Gold opened at $4,306, with a high of $4,334, and a low of $4,271, closing at $4,310.

Gold prices are influenced by several key factors, such as Fed sentiment and US interest rates. The market continues to monitor signals from the Fed. If US economic data, such as employment and inflation, indicate that the Fed will ease policy in the future, this tends to weaken the US dollar and support gold.

Recent US data released on December 16th showed mixed results. The economy added more people than expected to the labor force in November, but the Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since 2021. Although the report confirmed further easing, expectations for an interest rate cut in January 2026 remain low at around 25%, as shown by Capital Edge data.

Meanwhile, US retail sales showed that American consumer spending remained slightly strong, with retail sales unchanged in October. The report indicated that people faced higher prices for food, furniture, and various other imported goods due to Trump's tariffs.

Traders will continue to monitor other US data, such as jobless claims due Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also a market focus, as gold is traded in USD. Strengthening or weakening of the USD can influence gold price movements. The DXY is currently rebounding to 98.203 after dropping to 97.869. The DXY sentiment is bearish below its 20-day moving average (MA).

Gold is a safe-haven asset that is also influenced by geopolitical factors. Global geopolitical or economic uncertainty tends to drive demand for gold. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine war remain uncertain, although talks stalled after Kyiv drafted a 20-point plan that the Kremlin has not yet accepted, temporarily dampening demand for safe assets.

In talks supported by the US and the European Union, there has been tangible progress toward ending the war. Ukraine is considered willing to abandon its ambitions to join NATO as part of a Western security guarantee, but refuses to cede territory. Western sanctions against Russia remain in place and are impacting the global economy, including the energy and commodity sectors. This conflict is a factor contributing to global market uncertainty.

Conclusion: Gold is currently consolidating around the psychological level of $4,300 and seeking new catalysts. Traders will await US economic data and the market's interpretation of the Fed's monetary policy outlook.

The gold price range forecast, based on technical analysis, indicates consolidation. Major support is estimated to be in the range of $4,270-$4,250, and major resistance is in the range of $4,350-$4,380.