Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

Oil prices strengthen despite persistent supply surplus concerns

The XTI/USD oil price, an instrument that represents the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil against the USD, rose on Tuesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom. Oil prices reached a high of 60.73, a low of 59.26, and closed at 60.61.

WTI traded up nearly 1.5% despite persistent supply surplus concerns. Traders appear to be more focused on the upcoming US sanctions against Russia, which target Rosneft and Lukoil, due November 21st.

Oil prices are influenced by supply and demand. If US crude oil inventory data declines and refinery utilization increases, this can support prices. For example, the EIA's continuous decline in US refinery inventories is a positive factor. Today, the EIA's economic calendar will release crude oil inventories, which are expected to show a decline of 1.9 million.

On the other hand, some analysts are paying attention to the latest projections from the International Energy Agency, which predict that the global oil market is on track for a period of oversupply, with non-OPEC output growth and softer demand potentially weighing on the balance until early 2026.

Besides supply and demand factors, geopolitical factors are also of concern to traders. Supply-side pressure can arise if geopolitical risks arise, such as sanctions against producing countries. For example, comments that sanctions against Russia could disrupt oil exports and increase spot premiums.

Although short-term conditions could support an increase, there are risks from global oversupply and slowing demand, which could depress prices.

Another factor that traders are paying attention to regarding oil prices is the relationship between the US dollar, interest rates, and the global economy. Because oil is traded in US dollars, a strengthening USD could depress prices by making it relatively expensive for holders of other currencies. A slowing global economy could also depress oil prices.

Currently, conditions appear to favor a consolidation phase or a slight upside rather than a major breakout to the upside or downside. This is due to the relationship between short-term supply and inventory, but also the constraints of oversupply and weak demand.

The forecast short-term price range is estimated at 58.50-61.50 per barrel. Key resistance is around 61.50-62.00; a breakout of this level could lead to a rise to 63.50. Key support is around 58.00-58.50; a breakout of this level could lead to further support at 55.00.

[Zeologic]

Gold Trims Gains as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ease

Gold prices failed to extend their gains on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, and trimmed gains by drawing a short-bodied bullish candle with a long shadow at the top of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of $4132, a low of $4055, and a close of $4073.

The Fed minutes stated that most officials warned that additional rate cuts could risk higher inflation and signaled a weakened commitment to the 20% target. Many supported the October rate cut, but some said they could support keeping rates unchanged. Officials generally noted that inflation remains quite high. The split in views within the FOMC points to a potential pause in rate cuts. There are concerns among hawkish members about the risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.

Today's market sentiment will be dominated by the release of crucial US economic data and its impact on expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy. Today's primary market focus is on the delayed release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. This data is crucial because it will provide a clear signal regarding the health of the US labor market, a key factor in the Fed's interest rate decision. According to Forexfactory, the NFP is forecast to rise by 53,000 from the previously revised 22,000. While higher than previously, the 53k figure is still relatively low for population growth. The weak figure reflects a significant slowdown in the US labor market. If the NFP data is worse than expected, it could increase market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut at its December meeting. This could support gold, a non-yielding asset. Conversely, if the NFP data is stronger than expected, it could reduce expectations for an interest rate cut and support the USD, as it would increase US Treasury yields.

The risk-off sentiment in global markets, fueled by economic uncertainty following the previous US government shutdown, continues to provide fundamental support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The US dollar, as reflected by the US Dollar Index (DXY), surged to a high of 100,343 from a low of 99,494. The DXY tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies. Conversely, US Treasury yields were stable, with the 10-year US government bond yield at 4.11%. US real yields.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs revealed that central banks continue to buy gold, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBoC). The PBoC added an estimated 15 tons of the yellow metal to its forex reserves two months ago. They added that the PBoC could continue its purchases in November, which could push bullion prices higher.

The direction of gold prices today is expected to depend heavily on the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data release. However, based on recent sentiment, there is strong bullish potential if the employment data proves weak as expected, which could weaken the USD and increase gold.

The forecast price movement range is strong support around 4,030-4,032. However, if the NFP data is surprisingly strong, gold may break below $4,000. Strong resistance is estimated at around 4,118-4,120. A breakout of this level could lead gold to rise, with a target of 4,132. Gold is likely to be highly volatile today following the NFP release, necessitating strict risk management.

[Zeologic]

GBP pares losses ahead of UK retail sales data

The GBPUSD currency pair drew a bullish candlestick yesterday, Thursday, November 20th, with a small body and relatively long shadows at the top and bottom. The price formed a high of 1.13124, a low of 1.30376, and a close of 1.30758 from an open of 1.30564.

In the American trading session, GBP strengthened following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which far exceeded expectations, revealing that the economy added more people to the labor force than expected. The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, boosting the chances of a Fed rate cut to 43%, despite the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4%. Hawkish Fed officials warned against easing policy too quickly, as it could push inflation higher and undermine its 2% inflation target commitment. Meanwhile, in the UK, declining inflation and confidence reinforced bets on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

Today is a busy day of economic data releases that have the potential to trigger market volatility. The pound sterling will be the main focus in the European session with the release of important UK retail sales data. According to Forexfactory, UK retail sales rose 0.5% in the previous release, and today's data is expected to contract by -0.1%. The implications of a strong data release could increase optimism about consumer spending and economic growth, providing a positive boost to the GBP. A weak figure could raise fears of a recession or slowdown, which could weigh on the GBP.

Other data releases of interest include the UK flash manufacturing PMI and the UK services PMI. The PMI is an indicator of healthy business activity; a reading above 50 indicates expansion. A stronger-than-expected UK PMI could support the GBP. The flash manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 49.3, a slight contraction from the previous release of 49.7. The flash services PMI is expected to come in at 51.9, a slight decrease from the previous release of 52.3.

In recent days, there have been reports of a decline in UK inflation (CPI) to 3.6% in October. This has the potential to increase speculation that the BoE will hold or even cut interest rates sooner, which tends to be negative for GBP. The market will be watching today's data for further clues regarding the BoE's policy direction.

Today, the US will also release economic data, including the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. The US Flash Manufacturing PMI is estimated at 52.0, slightly down from the previous release of 52.5. The Flash Services PMI is estimated at 54.6, down from the previous release of 54.8. Looking at the UK and US PMI figures, business activity in the US is stronger than in the UK.

General sentiment towards the US dollar is currently influenced by the Fed's comments and US bond yields. The dollar tends to strengthen if US data shows a resilient economy, which could increase speculation that the Fed will hold interest rates for longer.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently up around 0.14% and is above the 100 level, indicating the US dollar's strong performance against six other major currencies. The DXY reached a high of 100.360 before finally falling to 100.257.

Today's forecast shows key resistance in the 1.3150-1.3180 range, and key support in the 1.2950-1.2920 range. A breakout of these levels could lead to further price increases.