Today market outlook

[Ariana verma]

• Quarterly Earnings Season: Investors are closely watching Q2 FY26 corporate results, which are expected to influence stock movements significantly.

• Federal Reserve Decisions: Anticipation around U.S. interest rate decisions is adding to global market uncertainty.

• India-U.S. Trade Talks: Progress in bilateral trade discussions could impact investor sentiment.

• Macroeconomic Data: Upcoming Industrial Production (IIP) figures for September, due on October 28, are also in focus.

📊 Market Sentiment

• After a strong rally, markets are showing signs of consolidation. Profit booking is likely to continue, especially in IT stocks.

• The Sensex and Nifty closed slightly higher in the previous session, but volatility remains due to mixed global cues.

🔍 Expert Insights

• Analysts expect a revival in market momentum driven by GST stimulus and income tax benefits, which may reflect in corporate earnings soon

[Zeologic]

AUD/JPY rose, supported by commodity markets and a weaker JPY.

The AUD/JPY pair has drawn bullish candles for six consecutive days, reflecting the strengthening of the AUD against the JPY. On Friday, the rise slowed, with the AUD/JPY drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 88.591, a low of 99.219, and a close of 99.455.

The AUD/JPY pair is often referred to as a risk-on pair because its movements are highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. This pair is highly sensitive to RBA and BoE interest rate policies; RBA rate hikes or expectations of rate hikes tend to strengthen the AUD. Australia is a major commodity exporter, especially of iron ore; rising industrial commodity prices typically support the AUD. If the global market is optimistic, investors tend to seek high-yielding assets, which can drive demand for the AUD and sell the JPY as a safe-haven currency. China also influences the AUD/JPY currency pair as it is a strategic trading partner of Australia. Chinese GDP, PMI, and trade data could influence the AUD.

The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations that Japan's fiscal policy will loosen and interest rates may remain low, which could weaken the JPY as a safe-haven currency. However, any speculation about policy changes, such as the end of yield curve control, could significantly strengthen the JPY.

During periods of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty, the JPY tends to strengthen because it is considered a safe-haven currency, especially when markets tend to be risk-off. Japan's trade balance is also of interest, as a trade surplus often supports the JPY.

Today's economic calendar will focus on investors' attention, with a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock likely providing subtle hints about whether future policy will be more hawkish or dovish. A more hawkish policy could support the AUD's strength, while a more dovish statement could pressure the AUD.

Although the AUD is currently supported, a sudden weakening in global risk appetite could prompt investors to turn to the JPY as a safe-haven currency, potentially pressuring the AUD/JPY pair. Changes could also occur due to Japanese interest rate policy or currency intervention, which could suddenly strengthen the JPY and pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Conversely, if Australian economic data disappoints and commodities decline, this could weaken the AUD.

The forecast price range for AUD/JPY today is 97.50 - 98.00. The main resistance range is 100.00 - 100.50. The conservative intraday range is 98.50 - 99.80.

[Zeologic]

Gold Prices Continue to Correct, Crossing the Middle Band Line

Gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, October 27, 2025, extending their correction, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 4108, a low of 3971, and a close of 3987. This decline successfully crossed the middle band line from the upside and crossed the psychological level of 4000.

Gold prices have been highly volatile recently, having reached new highs followed by sharp corrections. Historically, the long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term momentum indicates a correction or consolidation phase.

From a long-term perspective, if global risk sentiment improves, such as optimism about resolving US-China trade tensions and geopolitical issues, this could lead to easing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to price declines. Recently, it was reported that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold a meeting, which raised optimism about a resolution to the trade war between the two countries. According to US officials, they have finalized the framework of a trade deal with Chinese economic leaders that is set to be formalized by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported that, according to US officials, this agreement will halt steeper US tariff increases, end restrictions on rare earths exports from China, and resume China's large purchases of US soybeans.

Besides global risk sentiment, profit-taking after a significant rally also triggered further price declines in the short term. On the other hand, gold often has a negative correlation with the US dollar. If the US dollar strengthens, supported by strong US economic data or a hawkish Fed outlook, gold tends to fall. However, the DXY is currently not showing significant increases; although it is trending upward, its movement is still below the 100 level. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, for example, ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, which could signal a dovish outlook, gold could be pushed up.

The market is currently anticipating the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate outlook. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut is 97.8%. If the actual data meets market expectations, it is likely to push gold prices up. Conversely, if the Fed is more cautious and leaves interest rates unchanged, this could pressure gold prices.

Despite the prospect of lower interest rates, the US dollar is showing signs of regaining strength, or at least not weakening further. This could put pressure on gold prices. A more bullish market sentiment, which tends to seek riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the market becomes risk-on.

Today's price forecast is for a broader range of 3920-4140 and a consolidation range of 3985-4086. Strong resistance is around 4140-4160, and strong support is around 3920-3960.

[Ariana verma]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today

 

You said

Today market outlook I NEED REPLY

Copilot said

Indian stock market is expected to open positively today, October 28, 2025, following a strong rally in global markets and bullish signals from Gift Nifty.

Here's a detailed breakdown of today's market outlook:

📈 Market Opening Trends

• Gift Nifty is trading around 26,055, showing a premium of nearly 43 points over the previous Nifty futures close, indicating a positive startMint.

• Sensex closed yesterday at 84,778.84, up 566.96 points (0.67%).

• Nifty 50 ended at 25,900, gaining 170.90 points (0.6%)Mint.

🔍 Technical Indicators

• Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle on the daily chart, suggesting strength and potential upward momentumMint.

• Analysts expect short-term targets around 26,200, though caution remains due to recent profit booking and global uncertaintiesMint.

🌍 Global Cues

• The rally in Wall Street and optimism around a potential US-China trade deal and Fed rate cuts are supporting sentimentMint.

• However, concerns over US sanctions on Russian oil companies and delayed trade agreements may introduce volatilityMint.

🏢 Sector Highlights

• IT stocks are in focus, with the Nifty IT index recently gaining 2.21% due to renewed buying interestGoodreturns.

• Midcap and Smallcap indices showed slight declines, indicating selective investor interestThe Economic Times.

📌 What to Watch Today

• Monitor profit booking at higher levels, especially after the recent rally.

• Keep an eye on global developments, particularly around trade and crude oil.

• Watch for breakouts near the 26,000 mark on Nifty, which could signal further upside.

Would you like insights on specific stocks or sectors to watch today? I can help you track them live.

 

 

[Zeologic]

USDCAD falls ahead of BoC interest rate decision

The USDCAD pair trended downward during the week's trading. Although price volatility was very volatile in the short term, downward pressure was dominant. The USDCAD charted a bearish candle on October 28th with a fairly long candle body. The price formed a high of 1.40056, a low of 1.39333, and a close of 1.39433. This indicates the Canadian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar ahead of today's BoC interest rate decision. The BoC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, prior to 2.50%. Theoretically, an interest rate cut tends to weaken the CAD because the return is relatively less attractive compared to the USD. On the other hand, the USD is expected to see an interest rate cut or easing by the Federal Reserve. Interest rate cuts tend to weaken currencies, but the USD still receives support from safe-haven flows and uncertain global conditions.

The CAD's strengthening on Tuesday appears to have been driven more by the report on US Consumer Confidence, which fell in October. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.6 from a revised 95.6 in September, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the USD, has weakened slightly over the past five days, trending towards a doji with a lower low. The DXY is currently down at 98.717 from a high of 98.565.

Today's focus will shift to the risk of interest rate decisions from the Bank of China (BoC) and the Federal Reserve, which are preparing to announce their decisions. The market currently expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates due to a sharp slowdown in the Canadian economy, which shrank by 1.6% in the second quarter due to US steel/aluminum tariffs and high unemployment.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is also almost certain to cut interest rates after weaker-than-expected US inflation data last week, reinforcing expectations of a dovish Fed stance. The Fedwatch tool indicates a 99.9% probability of a 25 bps interest rate cut.

Canada relies heavily on oil exports, and oil prices are currently falling after ending a session of gains during last week's trading. Weakening oil prices could put pressure on the CAD against the USD. Analysts report that pension fund hedges against the CAD are declining, reducing the automatic support for the CAD.

Combining Canadian and US fundamentals, USDCAD has the potential to rise due to the BoC interest rate cut. Although the Fed is also expected to cut rates, it still enjoys support as a safe-haven currency, benefiting the USD. However, if there is a sharp rebound in oil prices or a surprisingly strong Canadian economy, the CAD could strengthen further.

Today's USDCAD price forecast: support range: 1.39000 - 1.39500, resistance range: 1.41000 - 1.41500.

[Zeologic]

USD/JPY rises after the Fed's interest rate cut decision

On Wednesday, October 29th, the USD/JPY pair drew a bullish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 153.061, a low of 151.543, and a close of 152.700.

The Fed finally cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected. The market surprised the market, as the USD strengthened against other major currencies, including the Japanese Yen, which rose significantly within an hour. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, rose around 0.43% after the cut. The DXY rose to a high of 99.356 from a low of 98.624 and closed at 99.167.

The market had previously predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates, with a 99% chance of a cut, according to the Fedwatch tool, just hours before the release. However, what's more important is not just the cut itself, but the tone of the Fed Chairman's statement, whether it will be dovish or hawkish. The FOMC statement showed that economic activity has been growing at a moderate pace. Job growth slowed this year, and the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with this development. Inflation has been rising since the beginning of the year and remains relatively high. The committee recommends a long-term inflation target of 2%. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high, and the risk of a job decline has increased in recent months.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) currently does not expect major changes in interest rates in the short term. It is expected to maintain the interest rate at 0.50%. In theory, the Japanese yen is quite vulnerable due to the difference in interest rates and long-term expectations. If the BoJ signals a hawkish signal or the market anticipates a Japanese interest rate hike, the JPY could strengthen. Conversely, if the BoJ is very dovish, the JPY is likely to remain weak. Internal government pressure also contributed to the Japanese government's warning that, through its financial authorities, it would monitor currency volatility and potentially intervene if the JPY weakened too rapidly.

Considering the fundamentals of both the US and Japan, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the Bank of Japan's policies and potential intervention by the Japanese government. Currently, the USD remains biased to strengthen, but the risk of a reversal is significant if the BoJ suddenly signals a hawkish stance or Japan intervenes to strengthen the JPY.

Today's short-term price range forecast is 151.00-153.00, while the broader forecast is 150.00-154.00. Potential support is around 151.50-150.80. If the JPY strengthens, the price could fall to 150.50-151.00. Resistance is around 152.80-153.30. If momentum is strong or the JPY weakens further, it could rise to 153.25-153.50.

Today, traders will focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy and the tone of its monetary policy statement, which may provide subtle clues about Japan's economic outlook. Markets sometimes react quickly to policy changes.

[Zeologic]

WTI oil prices stabilize near the middle band

The XTIUSD oil price on Thursday, October 30, drew a Doji candlestick, reflecting market indecision within a narrow price range. The price formed a high of 60.55, a low of 59.46, and a close of 60.08, after opening at 60.15.

Fundamentally, the crude oil market is currently dominated by concerns about oversupply and slowing global demand. Factors that could influence the decline in oil prices include the IEA report showing a significant oil supply surplus since the beginning of the year. Global production is estimated at 1.9 million barrels per day, primarily from non-OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, and Canada, and is expected to continue to increase until 2026.

Although OPEC+ previously restricted supply, they are expected to gradually ease cuts with planned output increases, which could add to supply pressure on the market. Oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly compared to historical trends due to more challenging macroeconomic conditions and increased transportation efficiency.

Global oil stocks continue to rise, including those held on ships/at sea, reaching a four-year high, indicating an oversupplied market. Economic data from major economies like China show no strong growth in oil consumption, while there is also a decline in the risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East peace agreement. On the other hand, the US administration is known to prioritize lower oil prices around $50 per barrel to manage inflation.

On the other hand, as a supporting factor for oil prices, although OPEC+ is gradually increasing, they are expected to be cautious to prevent stocks from rising too rapidly. They could also consider new supply cuts if prices fall too far. There is also a view that amid US sanctions on Russia, overall oil demand by major consumers remains strong. Meanwhile, a high Oil Volatility Index indicates market distrust and the potential for rapid price declines, but this could also lead to a sudden price reversal.

Comparing fundamental factors on both sides, market sentiment appears to remain bearish, driven by a clear supply surplus and slowing demand growth, although comments from OPEC+ may provide some price support.

The forecast oil price range is likely to be in the range of 59-63. Key resistance is around 66, and short-term support is around 61.50-63. Long-term support is around 55.00, and short-term support is around 58.99-59.57.

[Zeologic]

Gold prices fell on Friday due to the Fed's hawkish tone.

Gold prices on Friday drew a bearish candle with a small body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 4046, a low of 3972, and a close of 4002. Gold prices reached their lowest point for the month of October on October 28th at 3886. Gold then rebounded to 4046 at the end of October.

Gold's decline over the weekend appeared to be triggered by several factors. In his post-meeting statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of a December interest rate cut, saying it was not a foregone conclusion and emphasizing that policy decisions would remain data-dependent. Gold price movements also depended on the strength of the US dollar. The US dollar and Treasury yields remained strong after the Fed's cautious guidance, weighing on gold's rise, as traders reduced expectations of a rate cut this year.

Meanwhile, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended positively, providing some temporary relief from US-China trade tensions. Improving market sentiment is also a factor weighing on gold's safe-haven appeal.

The global market's next focus will likely be on Friday's NFP data and today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. However, both figures are currently tentative due to the potential impact of the US government shutdown.

Gold's daily movement is estimated to be in the range of $3935-$4080. Strong resistance is around 4140-4165; a breakout of this level could confirm a bullish trend. Strong support is around 3905-3935; a breakout of this level could confirm a deeper correction.