Today market outlook

[Ariana verma]

• Quarterly Earnings Season: Investors are closely watching Q2 FY26 corporate results, which are expected to influence stock movements significantly.

• Federal Reserve Decisions: Anticipation around U.S. interest rate decisions is adding to global market uncertainty.

• India-U.S. Trade Talks: Progress in bilateral trade discussions could impact investor sentiment.

• Macroeconomic Data: Upcoming Industrial Production (IIP) figures for September, due on October 28, are also in focus.

📊 Market Sentiment

• After a strong rally, markets are showing signs of consolidation. Profit booking is likely to continue, especially in IT stocks.

• The Sensex and Nifty closed slightly higher in the previous session, but volatility remains due to mixed global cues.

🔍 Expert Insights

• Analysts expect a revival in market momentum driven by GST stimulus and income tax benefits, which may reflect in corporate earnings soon

[Zeologic]

AUD/JPY rose, supported by commodity markets and a weaker JPY.

The AUD/JPY pair has drawn bullish candles for six consecutive days, reflecting the strengthening of the AUD against the JPY. On Friday, the rise slowed, with the AUD/JPY drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 88.591, a low of 99.219, and a close of 99.455.

The AUD/JPY pair is often referred to as a risk-on pair because its movements are highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. This pair is highly sensitive to RBA and BoE interest rate policies; RBA rate hikes or expectations of rate hikes tend to strengthen the AUD. Australia is a major commodity exporter, especially of iron ore; rising industrial commodity prices typically support the AUD. If the global market is optimistic, investors tend to seek high-yielding assets, which can drive demand for the AUD and sell the JPY as a safe-haven currency. China also influences the AUD/JPY currency pair as it is a strategic trading partner of Australia. Chinese GDP, PMI, and trade data could influence the AUD.

The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations that Japan's fiscal policy will loosen and interest rates may remain low, which could weaken the JPY as a safe-haven currency. However, any speculation about policy changes, such as the end of yield curve control, could significantly strengthen the JPY.

During periods of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty, the JPY tends to strengthen because it is considered a safe-haven currency, especially when markets tend to be risk-off. Japan's trade balance is also of interest, as a trade surplus often supports the JPY.

Today's economic calendar will focus on investors' attention, with a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock likely providing subtle hints about whether future policy will be more hawkish or dovish. A more hawkish policy could support the AUD's strength, while a more dovish statement could pressure the AUD.

Although the AUD is currently supported, a sudden weakening in global risk appetite could prompt investors to turn to the JPY as a safe-haven currency, potentially pressuring the AUD/JPY pair. Changes could also occur due to Japanese interest rate policy or currency intervention, which could suddenly strengthen the JPY and pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Conversely, if Australian economic data disappoints and commodities decline, this could weaken the AUD.

The forecast price range for AUD/JPY today is 97.50 - 98.00. The main resistance range is 100.00 - 100.50. The conservative intraday range is 98.50 - 99.80.

[Zeologic]

Gold Prices Continue to Correct, Crossing the Middle Band Line

Gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, October 27, 2025, extending their correction, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 4108, a low of 3971, and a close of 3987. This decline successfully crossed the middle band line from the upside and crossed the psychological level of 4000.

Gold prices have been highly volatile recently, having reached new highs followed by sharp corrections. Historically, the long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term momentum indicates a correction or consolidation phase.

From a long-term perspective, if global risk sentiment improves, such as optimism about resolving US-China trade tensions and geopolitical issues, this could lead to easing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to price declines. Recently, it was reported that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold a meeting, which raised optimism about a resolution to the trade war between the two countries. According to US officials, they have finalized the framework of a trade deal with Chinese economic leaders that is set to be formalized by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported that, according to US officials, this agreement will halt steeper US tariff increases, end restrictions on rare earths exports from China, and resume China's large purchases of US soybeans.

Besides global risk sentiment, profit-taking after a significant rally also triggered further price declines in the short term. On the other hand, gold often has a negative correlation with the US dollar. If the US dollar strengthens, supported by strong US economic data or a hawkish Fed outlook, gold tends to fall. However, the DXY is currently not showing significant increases; although it is trending upward, its movement is still below the 100 level. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, for example, ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, which could signal a dovish outlook, gold could be pushed up.

The market is currently anticipating the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate outlook. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut is 97.8%. If the actual data meets market expectations, it is likely to push gold prices up. Conversely, if the Fed is more cautious and leaves interest rates unchanged, this could pressure gold prices.

Despite the prospect of lower interest rates, the US dollar is showing signs of regaining strength, or at least not weakening further. This could put pressure on gold prices. A more bullish market sentiment, which tends to seek riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the market becomes risk-on.

Today's price forecast is for a broader range of 3920-4140 and a consolidation range of 3985-4086. Strong resistance is around 4140-4160, and strong support is around 3920-3960.