Today market outlook

[Ariana verma]

• Quarterly Earnings Season: Investors are closely watching Q2 FY26 corporate results, which are expected to influence stock movements significantly.

• Federal Reserve Decisions: Anticipation around U.S. interest rate decisions is adding to global market uncertainty.

• India-U.S. Trade Talks: Progress in bilateral trade discussions could impact investor sentiment.

• Macroeconomic Data: Upcoming Industrial Production (IIP) figures for September, due on October 28, are also in focus.

📊 Market Sentiment

• After a strong rally, markets are showing signs of consolidation. Profit booking is likely to continue, especially in IT stocks.

• The Sensex and Nifty closed slightly higher in the previous session, but volatility remains due to mixed global cues.

🔍 Expert Insights

• Analysts expect a revival in market momentum driven by GST stimulus and income tax benefits, which may reflect in corporate earnings soon

[Zeologic]

AUD/JPY rose, supported by commodity markets and a weaker JPY.

The AUD/JPY pair has drawn bullish candles for six consecutive days, reflecting the strengthening of the AUD against the JPY. On Friday, the rise slowed, with the AUD/JPY drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 88.591, a low of 99.219, and a close of 99.455.

The AUD/JPY pair is often referred to as a risk-on pair because its movements are highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. This pair is highly sensitive to RBA and BoE interest rate policies; RBA rate hikes or expectations of rate hikes tend to strengthen the AUD. Australia is a major commodity exporter, especially of iron ore; rising industrial commodity prices typically support the AUD. If the global market is optimistic, investors tend to seek high-yielding assets, which can drive demand for the AUD and sell the JPY as a safe-haven currency. China also influences the AUD/JPY currency pair as it is a strategic trading partner of Australia. Chinese GDP, PMI, and trade data could influence the AUD.

The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations that Japan's fiscal policy will loosen and interest rates may remain low, which could weaken the JPY as a safe-haven currency. However, any speculation about policy changes, such as the end of yield curve control, could significantly strengthen the JPY.

During periods of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty, the JPY tends to strengthen because it is considered a safe-haven currency, especially when markets tend to be risk-off. Japan's trade balance is also of interest, as a trade surplus often supports the JPY.

Today's economic calendar will focus on investors' attention, with a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock likely providing subtle hints about whether future policy will be more hawkish or dovish. A more hawkish policy could support the AUD's strength, while a more dovish statement could pressure the AUD.

Although the AUD is currently supported, a sudden weakening in global risk appetite could prompt investors to turn to the JPY as a safe-haven currency, potentially pressuring the AUD/JPY pair. Changes could also occur due to Japanese interest rate policy or currency intervention, which could suddenly strengthen the JPY and pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Conversely, if Australian economic data disappoints and commodities decline, this could weaken the AUD.

The forecast price range for AUD/JPY today is 97.50 - 98.00. The main resistance range is 100.00 - 100.50. The conservative intraday range is 98.50 - 99.80.