Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

WTI oil prices rebounded on Tuesday

During the trading session on Tuesday, September 24th, WTI oil prices formed a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom. Oil prices briefly fell to a low of $ 61.58 but eventually rebounded to reach a high of $ 63.71. Yesterday, WTI oil prices reached a high of 63.71, a low of 61.71, and a close of 63.53 on FXOpen's platform.

Recent developments in fundamental oil news are likely to increase global supply. The Iraqi Federal Government and the Kurdish Regional Government agreed to reopen an oil pipeline through Turkey, which will restore approximately 230,000 barrels per day, which had been suspended since March 2023. OPEC+ recently began easing voluntary production cuts.

There are concerns that demand will weaken, particularly from the US, due to rising diesel stocks and other weak demand indicators. Meanwhile, US oil and refined product stocks have been reported to rise in several reports, which could fuel concerns about a production surplus. The IEA warned that global supply would grow faster than demand, which could push supply into the second half of 2025 and into 2026. In its outlook, the IEA estimated that oil prices could average out at around $45-$60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 if the trend of supply exceeding demand continues.

The potential escalation of the trade war between the US and the European Union, as well as the imposition of US tariffs on certain countries, could hamper global economic growth and ultimately depress oil demand. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a significant geopolitical risk. This war could trigger disruptions to Russian oil shipments, which could disrupt global supply and push prices up. Instability in the Middle East also remains a risk that could disrupt supply.

Although the Fed has cut interest rates, its impact on oil prices appears to be less significant than the abundant supply and concerns about weakening demand.

Today's price movement projection is expected to be driven by negative sentiment from abundant supply data and concerns about weakening global demand. If US economic data continues to show signs of slowing, oil prices could potentially continue their decline. Key levels for XTI/USD price movement are estimated to be in the range of $64.62 - $61.20, which could potentially serve as resistance and support levels today.

Positive oil sentiment can stem from geopolitical factors, such as escalating war tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, which could suddenly create positive sentiment and push prices up. Furthermore, a report showing an unexpected decline in US oil inventories could also trigger upward price movements, with another resistance level around $67.

Overall, market sentiment today is expected to lean toward a decline. However, price movements can be highly sensitive to the latest economic news and geopolitical risk developments. Traders should be aware of these risks and remain vigilant about the latest economic data releases and geopolitical developments throughout the day.

[Zeologic]

NZD/USD Breaks Key 0.58000 Level, Plunges Further After Breakout

The New Zealand Dollar weakened further against the US Dollar on Thursday, September 25, 2025. The NZD/USD pair fell to a low of 0.57586 after successfully breaking through the key 0.58000 level. The pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 0.58311, a low of 0.57586, and a close of 0.57664 on FXOpen's trading platform.

Disappointing fundamental data from New Zealand has pushed the NZD/USD pair lower. New Zealand GDP contracted 0.9% in the latest quarter, significantly worse than the 0.3% expected. This raised market expectations that the RBNZ would cut interest rates more aggressively going forward. These rumors appear to have influenced the New Zealand Dollar's weakness, as the economic outlook weakens and the market begins to pay the price for additional interest rate cuts.

The strengthening of the USD also puts pressure on the NZD/USD, as the Fed remains the global benchmark. If US data shows stubborn inflation or a hawkish statement, the USD could strengthen, which in turn further pressures the NZD/USD. Market sentiment, plagued by uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and the global economic crisis, has led to capital inflows into the USD as a safe-haven currency.

New Zealand relies heavily on exports to commodity markets; a global slowdown or trade tensions could worsen the NZD's performance. Fundamentally, the pressure for a weaker NZD is relatively greater than the opportunity for a stronger NZD. However, the market is volatile, and any surprises from US data could weaken the USD.

Today, the US will release the core PCE index, which could potentially impact the USD's performance. This data is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation in formulating monetary policy; the Fed's inflation target is 2%. High PCE data indicate inflationary pressures, prompting the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, such as maintaining high interest rates for longer or considering rate hikes. Conversely, lower PCE data indicate weak inflation and encourage the Fed to adopt a dovish stance, such as considering interest rate cuts. Generally, interest rate cuts cause the USD to weaken because lower yields make asset yields less attractive.

Today's price is expected to be within the key range of 0.5760-0.5820. Roughly, the price range could be 0.5740-0.5830, with a potential move closer to 0.5760-0.5820 due to fundamental pressure.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin Rebounds After Plunging to the $108k Support Zone

Bitcoin has had a rough week of trading over the past week, falling 3.93% over the past seven days, according to Coinmarketcap data. Bitcoin's price dropped to a low of $108,851 on September 25, 2025. However, it attempted a rebound on September 28, reaching a high of $110,974. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is at $110,755. Its volatile movement allows the price to fluctuate at any time.

Negative factors for Bitcoin include volatility and high leverage liquidations. Many traders use leverage, and a price drop can trigger a cascade of liquidations and deepen the correction. A recent large-scale liquidation occurred after a rapid decline. Bitcoin often faces resistance in the high-price zone around $112k-$114k. If key support fails to hold at the key $104k or $10k levels, the downside resistance could be breached.

Market sentiment is also influenced by the Fed's monetary policy, US inflation data, and regulatory stances on crypto in various countries, which can trigger sudden volatility. Historically, September is often a weak month for the crypto market, known as the September effect. After a long rally, the market needs consolidation or a small correction to breathe.

The hash rate remains high or continues to increase, indicating a secure and decentralized network, which is a positive fundamental factor for investor confidence. Advances in scalability solutions and the implementation of important upgrades can increase Bitcoin's utility, and widespread layer 2 adoption will be a strong fundamental driver. The market is currently in a post-halving bull market phase, with the final halving scheduled for 2024. The reduced supply of new BTC should drive positive fundamentals due to scarcity.

The regulatory and institutional environment is also a focus in the crypto market. A key assumption is that by September 2025, Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the US and other jurisdictions will have been operational for a significant period. Fund flows from institutional and retail investors through these regulated products could be the biggest driver of demand and positive fundamentals.

If central banks, particularly the Fed, have reached the end of their interest rate hike cycle and are shifting their focus to rate cuts, this tends to benefit non-interest-bearing assets such as crypto. A weakening US dollar (DXY) tends to be bullish for BTC/USD. Geopolitical risks are also a concern for investors. Geopolitical uncertainty and financial crises can support BTC depending on the maturity of investors in choosing safe-haven assets at the time.

Daily movements are likely driven by the release of US economic data, movements in the major stock indices S&P 500/NASDAQ, or breaking news related to regulations or institutions.

A bullish scenario would be if BTC were able to break through and close above the $112k-$114k resistance level. The upward momentum would open at the $120k-$124k target. Some analysts predict this range as a medium-term rebound zone. If the Fed does indeed begin to cut interest rates, foreign and institutional capital inflows would continue.

A bearish scenario would be if the critical support at $107k fails to hold, potentially leading to a deeper decline to levels like $104k or closer to $100k. Pressure from liquidations and negative policy news could accelerate the decline.

The Fear and Greed Index currently shows a level of 34, according to Coinmarketcap data. This indicates the market is already at a fear level, which could lead to a correction.

[Zeologic]

US Government Shutdown Threat Sends Gold Soaring

Gold prices have recently reached very high levels and have shown strong bullish momentum, even setting new record highs. Yesterday, September 29th, gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows, resembling a morobozu. The price formed a high of 3833, a low of 3755, and a close of 3832 on FXOpen's platform.

Geopolitical factors and fiscal risks are the main drivers of gold price movements. The threat of a US government shutdown is a key rumor driving the market. September 30, 2025, is the deadline for the US Congress to pass the 2025 fiscal year budget. If a bipartisan agreement is not reached, the US government will face a shutdown starting October 1st. The impact of political and fiscal uncertainty in the world's largest economy has historically increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The risk of a shutdown is a very significant fundamental driver at this time, providing strong support for gold prices.

Another fundamental factor, the new tariff war announced by the US on imported branded drugs and heavy trucks, has fueled global trade tensions. The impact of these tensions created economic uncertainty, which prompted investors to turn to gold.

Recent US inflation data, such as the PCE index, moved in line with expectations, with annual inflation at 2.7% in August 2025, maintaining speculation that the Fed will continue its monetary policy easing cycle with interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates support gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Dovish sentiment from several Fed officials, such as support for interest rate cuts, also reinforces these expectations.

Most analysts have recently noted a sell-off in the US dollar as expectations for interest rate cuts increase. The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar means that a weaker USD makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus increasing demand and prices.

Gold demand from global central banks, particularly from Russia and China, remains at high levels. This indicates strong long-term structural support for gold prices.

US economic data showed better-than-expected GDP growth, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment, demonstrating the resilience of the US economy. This data should have pressured gold prices, but currently, the bullish forces of fiscal risk factors and expectations of a Fed rate cut appear to be dominating.

Today's gold outlook could depend heavily on developments in two key issues: the risk of a US government shutdown and market sentiment toward Fed policy. News developments regarding US budget negotiations in Congress will be the biggest price driver. Any negative news related to the shutdown tends to push gold prices higher.

Possible short-term resistance for gold is in the 3840-3850 range, and possible short-term support is estimated at 3780-3783, with strong support at 3760-3758. A breakout of this level would test the next floor, signaling a significant weakening of bullish momentum.

[Zeologic]

XTI/USD Slips Amid News of OPEC+ Production Hikes

WTI crude oil prices plunged to a low of 61.91 on Tuesday, September 30, extending their decline since Monday. Oil prices reached a high of 63.09, a low of 61.91, and a close of 62.22 on FXOpen's platform on September 30.

Fundamental factors influencing the XTI/USD oil price. OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by around 137,000 barrels per day starting in October 2025 as an adjustment to previous voluntary cuts. There are indications that OPEC+ may increase production even more aggressively in November, due to market pressure on high prices and a desire to maintain market share. Increased production could raise concerns about oversupply—the risk of a supply surplus if demand does not grow significantly.

Global oil demand is still growing, but at a moderate pace. In a Reuters survey, many analysts predicted that rising supply would limit the upside in oil prices. The EIA report stated that US oil production is expected to decline by 1% over the next period. The 2025 report shows significant uncertainty about the future supply-demand balance, with factors such as energy policy, technological change, and geopolitical dynamics potentially contributing to risks.

Oil inventories in major consuming countries are at relatively low levels, supporting the sentiment that supply is tight in the short term. However, if OPEC+ and other producers actually increase production significantly, downward price pressure is very likely if stocks increase more rapidly than anticipated.

Other geopolitical disruptions could also trigger sudden price spikes, for example, if there is conflict in oil-producing regions, such as attacks on infrastructure. US interest rates, the value of the USD, and macroeconomic conditions are also of concern, as they can affect oil demand and investor appeal. When the USD strengthens, pressure on commodity prices usually arises. Environmental policies and long-term energy transitions could also limit future oil growth.

The bearish scenario is slightly sideways due to rising OPEC+ production and moderate demand. If the support zone around 64.80 is broken, the price could fall to 62.00. If the price successfully breaks through the 62.00 support level, the next target is near the lower band at 61.40. The bullish scenario is reversed if there are production disruptions or OPEC+ chooses to maintain production. If it can break the resistance zone of 66.50-67.00, the target could reach 69.00-70.00.

The US economic data releases that investors are focusing on today include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to fall by 52,000. The manufacturing PMI is also in focus, which is expected to rise from the previous revision. These data releases could impact the USD, which in turn could affect oil prices.

[Zeologic]

GBP/JPY extends decline amid rumors of hawkish BoJ stance

The cross pair of GBP/JPY drew a bearish candle on October 1, extending the decline from the previous two days. The pair drew three consecutive bearish candles amidst pressure from the BoJ to raise interest rates. GBP/JPY formed a high of 199.213, a low of 197.905, and a close of 198.112 on FXOpen's platform. This decline widened the upper and lower bands, reflecting increased market volatility.

Pressure for a rate hike by the BoJ is increasing. Normally dovish BoJ members are now stating that a rate hike is increasingly necessary. Additionally, at the last meeting, there was an internal debate about a potential hike, although the policy rate currently remains at 0.5%. These rumors appear to have supported the yen's strength, as rising interest rates support the Japanese Yen.

Japanese economic data, in the Tankan survey, showed optimism among manufacturers rose to +14, the highest level since 2024. This positive sentiment supports expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike, potentially strengthening the yen.

In the UK, there is pressure on the UK economy from fiscal concerns and moderate growth prospects, as the Bank of England (BoE) has signaled caution regarding stimulus or interest rate cuts. Weak UK economic data or market doubts about the growth outlook could put pressure on the GBP. Alternatively, if the interest differential between the UK and Japan narrows or reverses, the yen may become more attractive to investors. This capital inflow could shift to higher-yielding assets in Japan, putting pressure on GBP/JPY.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen is still considered a safe-haven currency during global market turmoil. A US government shutdown could trigger investors to seek other perceived safe havens, such as the JPY and CHF.

Overall, the divergence bias between Japanese and UK fundamentals tends to favor potential GBPJPY weakness, or at least stronger downside pressure than upside. Increasingly hawkish pressure from the Bank of Japan and relatively strong Japanese data are risk factors for GBPJPY. On the other hand, the UK hasn't shown strong fundamentals to drive significant GBP appreciation.

The medium-term projection predicts a range for October's movement between a high of 202,000 and a low of 194,000. If GBPJPY can break through the resistance at 201,200 with strong volume, there is room for an increase to around 202,000. A breakout of the support at 197.9 could open the door to a move to 195,000.

Today's fundamental news focus is on US jobless claims. While not directly related, the strength or weakness can impact other currencies.