Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

WTI oil prices rebounded on Tuesday

During the trading session on Tuesday, September 24th, WTI oil prices formed a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom. Oil prices briefly fell to a low of $ 61.58 but eventually rebounded to reach a high of $ 63.71. Yesterday, WTI oil prices reached a high of 63.71, a low of 61.71, and a close of 63.53 on FXOpen's platform.

Recent developments in fundamental oil news are likely to increase global supply. The Iraqi Federal Government and the Kurdish Regional Government agreed to reopen an oil pipeline through Turkey, which will restore approximately 230,000 barrels per day, which had been suspended since March 2023. OPEC+ recently began easing voluntary production cuts.

There are concerns that demand will weaken, particularly from the US, due to rising diesel stocks and other weak demand indicators. Meanwhile, US oil and refined product stocks have been reported to rise in several reports, which could fuel concerns about a production surplus. The IEA warned that global supply would grow faster than demand, which could push supply into the second half of 2025 and into 2026. In its outlook, the IEA estimated that oil prices could average out at around $45-$60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 if the trend of supply exceeding demand continues.

The potential escalation of the trade war between the US and the European Union, as well as the imposition of US tariffs on certain countries, could hamper global economic growth and ultimately depress oil demand. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a significant geopolitical risk. This war could trigger disruptions to Russian oil shipments, which could disrupt global supply and push prices up. Instability in the Middle East also remains a risk that could disrupt supply.

Although the Fed has cut interest rates, its impact on oil prices appears to be less significant than the abundant supply and concerns about weakening demand.

Today's price movement projection is expected to be driven by negative sentiment from abundant supply data and concerns about weakening global demand. If US economic data continues to show signs of slowing, oil prices could potentially continue their decline. Key levels for XTI/USD price movement are estimated to be in the range of $64.62 - $61.20, which could potentially serve as resistance and support levels today.

Positive oil sentiment can stem from geopolitical factors, such as escalating war tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, which could suddenly create positive sentiment and push prices up. Furthermore, a report showing an unexpected decline in US oil inventories could also trigger upward price movements, with another resistance level around $67.

Overall, market sentiment today is expected to lean toward a decline. However, price movements can be highly sensitive to the latest economic news and geopolitical risk developments. Traders should be aware of these risks and remain vigilant about the latest economic data releases and geopolitical developments throughout the day.

[Zeologic]

NZD/USD Breaks Key 0.58000 Level, Plunges Further After Breakout

The New Zealand Dollar weakened further against the US Dollar on Thursday, September 25, 2025. The NZD/USD pair fell to a low of 0.57586 after successfully breaking through the key 0.58000 level. The pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 0.58311, a low of 0.57586, and a close of 0.57664 on FXOpen's trading platform.

Disappointing fundamental data from New Zealand has pushed the NZD/USD pair lower. New Zealand GDP contracted 0.9% in the latest quarter, significantly worse than the 0.3% expected. This raised market expectations that the RBNZ would cut interest rates more aggressively going forward. These rumors appear to have influenced the New Zealand Dollar's weakness, as the economic outlook weakens and the market begins to pay the price for additional interest rate cuts.

The strengthening of the USD also puts pressure on the NZD/USD, as the Fed remains the global benchmark. If US data shows stubborn inflation or a hawkish statement, the USD could strengthen, which in turn further pressures the NZD/USD. Market sentiment, plagued by uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and the global economic crisis, has led to capital inflows into the USD as a safe-haven currency.

New Zealand relies heavily on exports to commodity markets; a global slowdown or trade tensions could worsen the NZD's performance. Fundamentally, the pressure for a weaker NZD is relatively greater than the opportunity for a stronger NZD. However, the market is volatile, and any surprises from US data could weaken the USD.

Today, the US will release the core PCE index, which could potentially impact the USD's performance. This data is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation in formulating monetary policy; the Fed's inflation target is 2%. High PCE data indicate inflationary pressures, prompting the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, such as maintaining high interest rates for longer or considering rate hikes. Conversely, lower PCE data indicate weak inflation and encourage the Fed to adopt a dovish stance, such as considering interest rate cuts. Generally, interest rate cuts cause the USD to weaken because lower yields make asset yields less attractive.

Today's price is expected to be within the key range of 0.5760-0.5820. Roughly, the price range could be 0.5740-0.5830, with a potential move closer to 0.5760-0.5820 due to fundamental pressure.

[Zeologic]

Bitcoin Rebounds After Plunging to the $108k Support Zone

Bitcoin has had a rough week of trading over the past week, falling 3.93% over the past seven days, according to Coinmarketcap data. Bitcoin's price dropped to a low of $108,851 on September 25, 2025. However, it attempted a rebound on September 28, reaching a high of $110,974. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is at $110,755. Its volatile movement allows the price to fluctuate at any time.

Negative factors for Bitcoin include volatility and high leverage liquidations. Many traders use leverage, and a price drop can trigger a cascade of liquidations and deepen the correction. A recent large-scale liquidation occurred after a rapid decline. Bitcoin often faces resistance in the high-price zone around $112k-$114k. If key support fails to hold at the key $104k or $10k levels, the downside resistance could be breached.

Market sentiment is also influenced by the Fed's monetary policy, US inflation data, and regulatory stances on crypto in various countries, which can trigger sudden volatility. Historically, September is often a weak month for the crypto market, known as the September effect. After a long rally, the market needs consolidation or a small correction to breathe.

The hash rate remains high or continues to increase, indicating a secure and decentralized network, which is a positive fundamental factor for investor confidence. Advances in scalability solutions and the implementation of important upgrades can increase Bitcoin's utility, and widespread layer 2 adoption will be a strong fundamental driver. The market is currently in a post-halving bull market phase, with the final halving scheduled for 2024. The reduced supply of new BTC should drive positive fundamentals due to scarcity.

The regulatory and institutional environment is also a focus in the crypto market. A key assumption is that by September 2025, Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the US and other jurisdictions will have been operational for a significant period. Fund flows from institutional and retail investors through these regulated products could be the biggest driver of demand and positive fundamentals.

If central banks, particularly the Fed, have reached the end of their interest rate hike cycle and are shifting their focus to rate cuts, this tends to benefit non-interest-bearing assets such as crypto. A weakening US dollar (DXY) tends to be bullish for BTC/USD. Geopolitical risks are also a concern for investors. Geopolitical uncertainty and financial crises can support BTC depending on the maturity of investors in choosing safe-haven assets at the time.

Daily movements are likely driven by the release of US economic data, movements in the major stock indices S&P 500/NASDAQ, or breaking news related to regulations or institutions.

A bullish scenario would be if BTC were able to break through and close above the $112k-$114k resistance level. The upward momentum would open at the $120k-$124k target. Some analysts predict this range as a medium-term rebound zone. If the Fed does indeed begin to cut interest rates, foreign and institutional capital inflows would continue.

A bearish scenario would be if the critical support at $107k fails to hold, potentially leading to a deeper decline to levels like $104k or closer to $100k. Pressure from liquidations and negative policy news could accelerate the decline.

The Fear and Greed Index currently shows a level of 34, according to Coinmarketcap data. This indicates the market is already at a fear level, which could lead to a correction.