Today market outlook

[Zeologic]

WTI oil prices rebounded on Tuesday

During the trading session on Tuesday, September 24th, WTI oil prices formed a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom. Oil prices briefly fell to a low of $ 61.58 but eventually rebounded to reach a high of $ 63.71. Yesterday, WTI oil prices reached a high of 63.71, a low of 61.71, and a close of 63.53 on FXOpen's platform.

Recent developments in fundamental oil news are likely to increase global supply. The Iraqi Federal Government and the Kurdish Regional Government agreed to reopen an oil pipeline through Turkey, which will restore approximately 230,000 barrels per day, which had been suspended since March 2023. OPEC+ recently began easing voluntary production cuts.

There are concerns that demand will weaken, particularly from the US, due to rising diesel stocks and other weak demand indicators. Meanwhile, US oil and refined product stocks have been reported to rise in several reports, which could fuel concerns about a production surplus. The IEA warned that global supply would grow faster than demand, which could push supply into the second half of 2025 and into 2026. In its outlook, the IEA estimated that oil prices could average out at around $45-$60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 if the trend of supply exceeding demand continues.

The potential escalation of the trade war between the US and the European Union, as well as the imposition of US tariffs on certain countries, could hamper global economic growth and ultimately depress oil demand. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a significant geopolitical risk. This war could trigger disruptions to Russian oil shipments, which could disrupt global supply and push prices up. Instability in the Middle East also remains a risk that could disrupt supply.

Although the Fed has cut interest rates, its impact on oil prices appears to be less significant than the abundant supply and concerns about weakening demand.

Today's price movement projection is expected to be driven by negative sentiment from abundant supply data and concerns about weakening global demand. If US economic data continues to show signs of slowing, oil prices could potentially continue their decline. Key levels for XTI/USD price movement are estimated to be in the range of $64.62 - $61.20, which could potentially serve as resistance and support levels today.

Positive oil sentiment can stem from geopolitical factors, such as escalating war tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, which could suddenly create positive sentiment and push prices up. Furthermore, a report showing an unexpected decline in US oil inventories could also trigger upward price movements, with another resistance level around $67.

Overall, market sentiment today is expected to lean toward a decline. However, price movements can be highly sensitive to the latest economic news and geopolitical risk developments. Traders should be aware of these risks and remain vigilant about the latest economic data releases and geopolitical developments throughout the day.

[Zeologic]

NZD/USD Breaks Key 0.58000 Level, Plunges Further After Breakout

The New Zealand Dollar weakened further against the US Dollar on Thursday, September 25, 2025. The NZD/USD pair fell to a low of 0.57586 after successfully breaking through the key 0.58000 level. The pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 0.58311, a low of 0.57586, and a close of 0.57664 on FXOpen's trading platform.

Disappointing fundamental data from New Zealand has pushed the NZD/USD pair lower. New Zealand GDP contracted 0.9% in the latest quarter, significantly worse than the 0.3% expected. This raised market expectations that the RBNZ would cut interest rates more aggressively going forward. These rumors appear to have influenced the New Zealand Dollar's weakness, as the economic outlook weakens and the market begins to pay the price for additional interest rate cuts.

The strengthening of the USD also puts pressure on the NZD/USD, as the Fed remains the global benchmark. If US data shows stubborn inflation or a hawkish statement, the USD could strengthen, which in turn further pressures the NZD/USD. Market sentiment, plagued by uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and the global economic crisis, has led to capital inflows into the USD as a safe-haven currency.

New Zealand relies heavily on exports to commodity markets; a global slowdown or trade tensions could worsen the NZD's performance. Fundamentally, the pressure for a weaker NZD is relatively greater than the opportunity for a stronger NZD. However, the market is volatile, and any surprises from US data could weaken the USD.

Today, the US will release the core PCE index, which could potentially impact the USD's performance. This data is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation in formulating monetary policy; the Fed's inflation target is 2%. High PCE data indicate inflationary pressures, prompting the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, such as maintaining high interest rates for longer or considering rate hikes. Conversely, lower PCE data indicate weak inflation and encourage the Fed to adopt a dovish stance, such as considering interest rate cuts. Generally, interest rate cuts cause the USD to weaken because lower yields make asset yields less attractive.

Today's price is expected to be within the key range of 0.5760-0.5820. Roughly, the price range could be 0.5740-0.5830, with a potential move closer to 0.5760-0.5820 due to fundamental pressure.